Market Open Brief 30th June 2016

FTSE has one of biggest 1 day rallies in History

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the rebound from Tuesday morphed into a fully fledged risk on rally with Stock markets surging around the globe. The main catalyst stems from receding brexit fears as US suggests that they are willing to enter into a bilateral trade deal with the UK. FX markets were a little more subdued but the US Dollar index was under pressure as the safe haven was sold.

The Euro (EUR) the Euro gained against...

Relief Rally as Stocks and Oil bounce

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the extreme negativity seen on Monday subsided in the Asian session Tuesday as the Nikkei rallied sharply off 15000 to close near 15400. The positive sentiment spilled over into the European and US sessions with profit takers and bargain hunters pushing most of the sold off assets higher. The US Dollar and Gold and Yen were the main casualties with the safe havens all paring back Brexit gains.

The Euro (EU...

GBP/USD falls further to fresh Brexit lows, UK loses AAA Rating

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was in demand Monday with global stock markets taking another leg lower with little respite so far post Brexit. The downside may slow down now as GBP/USD gets closer to 1.3000 which was seen as the target for Brexit sellers. Some talk of a second UK referendum yesterday by the UK minister of health has yet to gain traction and PM Cameron threw cold water on such speculation suggesting the first...

Brexit fallout continues Monday, GBP/USD opens under 1.3500

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) gaining across the board on safe haven demand with the notable exceptions of Gold and Yen. Any question of whether EUR/USD would fall in sympathy with the GBP is now clear as EUR/USD broke below 1.1000 Friday and has opened under pressure Monday. Although the FED is now likely to hold for the rest of the year the negative impact on the USD wont be seen until stability is seen in the UK. This week is...

NFP Miss Changes the Game, Yellen Reacts Tonight

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) The Dollar index crashed below the key support at 95 as May NFP numbers missed expectations dramatically with the lowest number (38K) since 2010. Talk of a June FED Rate hike have now vanished and unless FED Chair Yellen surprises the market tonight by dismissing Friday's reports so is July. Yellen may downplay it as a one off and not changing the central banks course, but either way its likely the rate hike...

Huge Stock Rally Helps USD/JPY above Y110

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the Dollar Index has consolidated above the key 95 level for the last few weeks and with the EUR/USD pushing to fresh lows overnight the DXY hit fresh multimonth highs at 9570. The Dollar has not had it all one way however with 'risk on' trade from the 2% rally in global stocks helping Commodity currencies to rebound. Oil has also responded positively and is striking distance of $50 a barrel where it previously failed...

FED Minutes Shock, June Rate Hike on Table

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) Surged past the key 95 resistance on the Dollar Index as the markets reacted to the Hawkish FED minutes from April which put a rate hike firmly back on the table for the June Meeting. “Most Fed Officials Saw June Hike ‘Likely’ if Economy Warranted” Was the line that got the market excited and we now turn our attention to two Fed Speakers tonight that may clarify the minutes further. FED Vice President...

USD Makes it Play to break Range

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) Strong US Data overnight in the form of April CPI at 0.4% m/m vs. 0.3% m/m and better April Housing starts has helped underpin a Dollar surge to month highs. The US Dollar Index which is a broad measure of USD strength is once again back at the critical 0.9500 level which capped for most of April. FOMC minutes are released later today and may offer to clues to how hawkish the FED really is and with the pricing in of a June...

Volatility Remains, Oil Fresh Year Highs

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) Risk appetite improved Monday with stocks rebounding from Friday lows but the gains have not been one way with large reversals intraday continuing make trading difficult. Oil is pressing higher to fresh 2016 levels above $48 and is threatening to test the psychological $50 in coming days. Today's US CPI numbers may take on increased significance in the FED hike or not debate with some commentators suggesting June is...

Risk Off, Dollar Strong

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) The US session saw risk appetite deteriorate dramatically overnight with the large gains in European stocks reversed and more into the close. The Asian session continued the bearish feel but the FX markets are so far not reacting dramatically to the Stocks. The US Dollar Index is still at week highs though and the EUR/USD downtrend is starting to pick up steam. US Retail Sales tonight are expected to be decent in spite of the weak company...