Market Open Brief 12th May 2016

Oil Up, Stocks Down, Bank of England ahead

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was under pressure yesterday with a large drawdown of US Oil inventories by over 3m barrels leading to a 4% Oil spike. This helped commodity currencies to outperform and EUR/USD attempt a small rally. Stocks decoupled from the Oil move and the fall overnight sent USD/JPY to test Y108.20 but we have recovered in the Asian session. The outlook is very muddy here but a continued Oil move back to $50 a barrel should see...

Stocks Consolidate Gains, Dollar Mixed

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) Stocks enjoyed a fresh leg higher Tuesday but so far in Asian trade Wednesday we have seen some profit taking and the European market has started on the back foot. USD/JPY has led the market lower falling from Y109.30 to 108.60 and is a good gauge atm the watch the general risk sentiment of the markets as a whole. Some debate has emerged this week as to what the FED should do vs. what the FED will actually do in June and...

Poor NFP Shrugged off, FED on Hold Likely

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) Chances of a FED rate hike were lowered even further Friday as the April NFP came in below forecasts at 160k vs. 200k expected. The initial knee jerk sell off was reversed as Stock markets enjoyed a nice rally into the weekend and USD/JPY buying helped the USD against most pairs. With stocks under pressure for most of the past two weeks this rally will be tested this week and help determine the direction of EUR/USD...

Markets on the Edge as US NFP looms

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) Was able to make modest gains across the board as EUR/USD led the majors lower yesterday. With US stocks remaining unable to bounce however, the USD/JPY was not able to break above 107.40 and as a result the biggest movers were EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY lower. Today we have the monthly US Jobs report in the NFP forecast at 203k vs. 215k last month. With a weak ADP number i think the street will be happy with anything above 180k...

Major USD Reversal Has Dollar Bears Asking Questions

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) With early Europe taking EUR/USD for a test of 1.16 and USD/JPY falling under Y106 the market appeared to be on the edge of a major new leg of USD weakness. Fast forward 12 hours and we witnessed one of the biggest broadbased reversals in the USD this year. With little news flow almost every major experienced outside day reversals. In what could be a pivotal day for the market if we see an extension of USD...

Relief Rally has Commodity Currencies in Focus

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) Some consolidation in the big pairs saw most of the movement confined to AUD NZD and CAD yesterday. All 3 took another leg lower but today as we enter the European trading session a relief rally in stocks and little bounce in Oil has these pairs are rather attractive levels to tempt the the longer term trend followers. USD/CAD has bounced from 1.25 to 1.2850 and AUD/USD has hit its short term targets at 0.7500....