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What are your expectations?

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  • What are your expectations?

    In light of what's happened recently I was speaking with Nick and thought it would be a good idea to get some feedback on what you expect from the team traders. This information will help us and the team traders get a better understanding of what you are looking for. LiveForexTrading's goal is to have happy and profitable members. We are going to run this survey until the end of this month, so please take a moment to answer a few questions so that we can provide the best service possible.

    Since the poll system on this forum only allows one poll question per post. I will need to create a couple separate polls. Please take the time to provide us feedback so we can better serve you!

    Next: Let us know how much you are willing to Risk per trade

    Happy Trading!

    Joe and the entire team
    More than 150%

    The poll is expired.

    Last edited by Turtle Forex; 07-10-2013, 11:35 AM.
    "The trend is your friend - until it bends at the end"

  • #2
    Is this per signal provider?

    Or our individual accounts?

    Or a conglomeration of signals?


    • #3

      Thanks for your question.

      This applies to you personally and what you expect from individual signals...this is going to give us a general consensus as to what members are looking for and expect from the individual team traders.


      "The trend is your friend - until it bends at the end"


      • #4
        Nice idea Guys.

        50% is great - better than great. I don't want fireworks, I want realistic returns and more than anything else I want good risk management.

        Sorry to shout but this is so important. I want traders to behave like managers of large funds. I think psychologically it is not a good thing for them to be running tiny demo accounts which, if they are blown, can be quickly replaced.

        Some of the traders on here talk and act like kids and that is very off-putting. Sometimes their risk management seems a little irresponsible as well.

        Trade Alerter stands out for me as a beacon of professionalism. That is why his trades following the FOMC minutes on July 10 were so disconcerting. I hope and expect him to respond to that screw up with his usual cool headed determination and skill.

        Reliability and consistency and management of risk. The protection at all costs of Capital. These are the essence for me and are as important, if not more important, than percentage return.

        People with fun size accounts will probably disagree. As someone with a lot to lose, I need to be able to trust.

        Good luck with this fantastic site. You all deserve the best.


        • #5
          Roger thanks for your input!

          I agree that when OPM (Other Peoples Money) is on the line, capital preservation must take top priority. I also agree with your assessment of TA as a standout trader. He has my utmost respect for how he handles himself. I also feel I should not leave FX AMP out of the discussion. While I do disagree with some of his recent trades, the fact is that despite the "dumb" moves he is only -5% drawn down on "standard" risk. That being said, AMP is on track to gain about 40-50% in 12 months with a so-far max DD of 5% at "standard" risk...that's pretty doggone good if you ask me, the verdict is still out on how AMP will recover from this, his worst DD to date, but I have confidence that he will recover.

          It's input like yours that will help improve and tailor services. I think most of the team traders are shooting for out-sized gains which in turn is going to require out-sized risk. There's just is no way around it. I don't want to sound cocky, but I feel I could turn 50% annual blind-folded with very low risk. However at 50% annual it will take me 10 years to turn my tiny $100 starting account to $5700...then at that I'd only be able to pull $2850 per year from it at 50%. I need to risk more to build my account then slowly reduce risk as the account grows.

          I may open a demo account and trade a very low risk system that will return 50% annual just as an exercise and put it on It may be a great idea to have a very low risk system with strict parameters for members such as yourself. Even though FX AMP is classified as low risk, the fact is AMP has stated that he may risk as much as 10% on a trade...3 straight losses equals a 30% dd at standard risk and although its very unlikely, the possibility exists.

          In the meantime I have a 10% floating DD on a GBPNZD short I have to dig my way out of!

          Happy Trading!

          "The trend is your friend - until it bends at the end"


          • #6

            Fantastic response, symptomatic of everything that is good about this website.

            I have a 100 000 account looking for a home and would therefore be immensely interested in a low risk account offering 4% per month with minimal draw down.

            Do you actually believe you could do that? There must be a massive market for it, and those of us fortunate to have that kind of money (and I can't be the only one) would be prepared to pay commensurately for it.

            I agree with you that Amp seems to be a great trader/system but I have lost a bit of trust recently due to obviously bad trading decisions and floating draw downs that could have got worse. Hold and hope was very obvious at times. Let's see how he gets out of it on default.

            I have plenty of money to put into a system such as you say you could offer blindfold. I challenge you to bring this to fruition because it would suit me immensely and I think it would add a phenomenal dimension to this service if it could be proven to work. Without being too skeptical, I sincerely doubt you can do it mate, because if it could be done consistently, no other investment on Earth for big money could come close.

            I worry about the prevalence of this doubling/tripling/quadrupling annually of $100 accounts mentality. I really don't want that. I want a stable return on a thousand times that sort of money. If that can happen, then great, but as ever in Forex, I'll believe it when I see it.

            Best of luck. If you take my challenge up then best wishes. I think this is a major, major gap in a market.


            • #7
              Hi Roger,

              I'd be more than happy accept your "challenge" (what's one more...hehehe) and I thank you for the opportunity.

              What I will do is spell out EXACTLY what the entry, exit, risk per trade. etc will be. The system rules will be understood by both of us before hand and I'll stick to them by the letter. I agree that there is a huge gap in the "system" market for low risk, low yield (by forex standards) systems. It seems not many are interested in anything that returns less than 100% annual...myself included...hehehe.

              If something like this would be what you looking for:

              3-4% monthly return (compounded)
              .5-1% risk per trade 2-4% profit target. I will be using negative leverage (ie 1 10K lot per 20K deposited) to open positions and add as the trade goes our way.
              Entries must meet EXACT entry criteria. Stop loss will be non negotiable.

              Let me know.

              I'll set up a 100K demo account and give it a shot. This system either hits singles or strikes out with an occasional "home run". I was actually approached by a guy who was supposedly starting a hedge fund to come on board as a trader. He felt that if I took what I was doing and "toned it down a bit" and applied a bit stricter risk management that the method I was using would be perfect for what he was looking for (5% monthly, low DD). I was quite flattered, but had no interest in getting a Series 3 license and dealing with the stress that goes along with being responsible for OPM. I trade for my own personal goals and enjoy the challenge that goes with it. Providing a signal is a different story. I'm pretty good at doing what I say and saying what I do when I have to...;-)

              Out of respect for Nick, I will simply be trading a demo account with results available on myfxbook. If/when it comes time to copy the trades it would go through Nick. If Nick would like me to eventually "trial" this through his copy system then we go that route.

              Happy Trading!

              "The trend is your friend - until it bends at the end"


              • #8
                I am very interested in this Joe and I agree entirely with the terms you lay out.


                • #9
                  Hello again Guys.

                  The more I think about the issue of 'expectations' the more it seems that you have struck at the heart of a major issue in Forex (and money accumulation generally) which is largely either ignored or taken completely for granted. The assumption on the part of many traders and investors is that their own expectations and attitudes to risk are shared by the traders or the fund managers to whom they entrust their money. This assumption is more often than not wrong.

                  Let's concentrate on trading, rather than investing, for the minute, and consider a number of scenarios that would influence the expectations of a typical member on a Forex site such as this.

                  Scenario 1 Member 1 is 24 years old and is a professional graduate. She has a good steady income which covers her yearly outgoings and has just inherited $1000. She contemplates blowing this on a party weekend, or a holiday, but instead decides to follow a Forex signal. She doesn't want to lose the money but is attracted by the potentially massive returns she may make over a short period of time. She is therefore prepared to accept 60% draw downs, or even the blowing of her account, since the loss of the money will not ultimately affect her life.

                  Scenario 2 Member 2 is a 40 year old in a manual job. He has accumulated $10000 over his working life and he looks forward to a stable but limited financial future. He is prepared to put that $10000 at risk in the hope of giving himself and his family some of the luxuries he has never quite been able to afford. Although he is prepared to risk the money, he is not at all eager to lose it. He is happy to accept gradual draw downs of around 30% as long as the recovery from those draw downs is managed in a sensible and gradual way.

                  Scenario 3 Member 3 is a self employed 60 year old who has accumulated $200000 over her lifetime but has no pension provision. She has long ago lost the ambition to become fabulously rich yet she does require a reasonable income to see her through her retirement. She has heard that Forex can offer significantly better returns than an annuity but that it involves risk. A 5% draw down makes her a little nervous, but a steady return of 5% a month gives her more than enough to live on.

                  I think the message from these different scenarios is that a first class Forex Signal Provider must tailor its various signals to the particular needs of its clientele. This would make LiveForexTrading truly unique, more of a fund manager, if you like, than a Signal Provider. Members need to know just how much risk is being taken and exactly which traders are suitable for which levels of risk and which sizes of client account. At present, obviously, Nick does not have the variety of traders to be able to do this, and everybody needs to understand that Forex is not an exact science anyway. Ultimately, though, I think the site needs to make itself very distinct from the high risk/small account Wild West mentality that utterly dominates the rest of this market. Whilst I think that high risk approach is suitable for a significant proportion of the members here (as exemplified in Scenario 1 above) it is certainly not suitable for us all. There needs to be a choice of signals on here that will appeal to the kind of trader who would normally be inclined to open an investment fund with JP Morgan.

                  I recognize, Joe, that what you are doing by accepting my challenge is absolutely a step in the direction I've outlined, and I appreciate that very much. The Forex resource provided and developed by Nick and the team is well on the way to becoming not only exceptional but truly unique, and it deserves eventually to be huge. I think a set of clearly delineated, bespoke offerings that will suit different account sizes and member expectations will be a part of that process.

                  Very best wishes to you all.


                  • #10
                    Hello Roger,

                    We truly appreciate the time and thought that went into your post! When I approached Nick about polling the members it was to try to get an idea of what the typical member is looking for. The polling system on this message board is not so great and only allows for a single question per thread but its a start. I'd like to create a more complete "survey" to really get a solid demographic of the typical member here.

                    It really will benefit Nick to have a diversified set of signals and I am sure that is what he is seeking to accomplish. The unfortunate truth of the matter is that most people getting into forex go in with unrealistic expectations. A quick look and you can see that 83% of those that took the poll are expecting 100% or more annual return. A more complete picture of the relatively small sample size:

                    80% of traders want over 100% annual return (I'll assume an average of 150-200%), risking no more than 5% per trade and having no more than a 30% account draw down. I can tell you right now that scenario is possible but not sustainable.

                    I've said before that reward will always be in direct proportion to risk. If your looking for 200% per year you had better be ready to risk 50% or more of your account to get it. Over a long enough period its not a matter of if you will draw down, its a matter of when it will happen. If you start with a 10K account, maybe a 5K loss is not so bad...but if you start with or run your account up to say 200K, a 100K loss, while still the same percentage wise, is much more significant.

                    Even with that fact, most will not be interested in a "boring" system that "only" returns 50% annual and requires a larger starting balance than other systems. (The system I will be doing for you requires a minimum 2K USD to trade a single micro lot). However this system is designed to be "geared up" for those with a higher risk appetite, like yours truly...;-).

                    This system is clearly defined as "low risk". It will only risk up to 1% per trade, period. It is designed so that a 200 pip move against me will equal 1% so it gives me plenty of room to see if the entry is good before adding. The goal here is to design a "one system fits all" system that starts at low risk (by forex standards) but can be geared to medium or high risk. It can even be less geared to be "very low risk", but would require a larger initial deposit.

                    I have a 50K demo account set up and ready to go on Monday. I am hoping to be able to deliver on my statement that I feel 3-4% monthly return with low risk is doable.

                    Happy Trading!

                    "The trend is your friend - until it bends at the end"


                    • #11
                      Thanks for that, Joe, and roll on Monday.


                      • #12
                        Joe and Roger,

                        I could not agree more with what the two of you have said so far!

                        While I am nowhere near Roger financially I agree completely with the goal of a "safe" investment even if it only yields 50% a year. In fact I could very well accept even lower than that, say 25-30% net (booked in my account, after slip, signal cost etc) provided there is virtually no drops in equity. Imho that would make a very good compliment to other saving forms.

                        If I then want to live on the edge a bit more, I just add an extra account for a more risky signal or, assuming it is made adjustable, increase the "risk multiplier" (whatever that's called, making me use more leverage). Or buy a couple of lottery tickets.

                        Just my thoughts, and the best of wishes with your challenge Joe - I truly hope such a thing as discussed can be made reality!

                        // Emil


                        • #13
                          Hi Emil,

                          I was having a long discussion about returns, what's possible, what's probable, and what's realistic and sustainable with another trader. Now I've been around for a while. I've traded, invested, had others manage my money, etc. I've always did my own Due Diligence, whether it was investing in a fund, buying a stock, commodity or whatever. I've looked at the track records of the best traders and funds over the last 25 years and here is what I have concluded:

                          1) Anything is possible. Yes you can turn $1,000 into $1,000,000 or more trading. It's been done. But it's the equivalent of me winning the lottery, getting struck by lighting or getting a date with Sofia Vergara. Since I don't play the lottery, go inside during thunderstorms and already have a hot Latina girlfriend I doubt any of these will happen. I also doubt my "$100 Challenge" will make me a millionaire, but I will try to do it.

                          2) What's probable in Forex trading are wild swings in your account equity or loosing most of your money. I've actually only blown 2 accounts, where I went below my starting balance and they were small, but I have also probably gave back 90% of what I have won trading Forex. I made my best money day trading stocks from 1999-2001. I've made my highest % gains by far trading Forex and that's what keeps me coming back for more!

                          3) Now when it comes to a realistic, sustainable return, this will depend on risk appetite. but for a general guideline you will need to allow for about a 1:2 Draw Down % to Reward ratio regardless. This means:

                          If you seek 25% annual, expect to risk at least 12.5% of your account. At some point in time you will take a MINIMUM 10% loss.
                          If you seek 50% annual, expect to risk at least 25% of your account. At some point in time you will take a MINIMUM 25% loss.
                          If you seek 75% annual, expect to risk at least 37.5% of your account. At some point in time you will take a MINIMUM 37.5% loss.
                          If you seek 100% annual, expect to risk at least 50% of your account.
                          If you seek 150% annual, expect to risk at least 75% of your account.
                          If you seek 200% annual, expect to loose most of your money at some point. If you think that I am being negative about this, a $10,000 USD account compounded at 200% for 5 years = over $ many people do you know that have been able to do that? Personally know more people that have hit the lottery for over $100K (3) then people that have made that kind of return over 5 years trading forex.

                          If I am wrong and anyone here can show me ONE trader on the PLANET that can turn over 50% without drawing down at least 25% over a 5 year period, let me know. I'll quit trading tomorrow and give him or her every dime I have available to invest and spend more time with my hot Latina girlfriend...;-)

                          Happy Trading!

                          Last edited by Turtle Forex; 07-17-2013, 11:53 PM.
                          "The trend is your friend - until it bends at the end"


                          • #14
                            Thanks for the insight Joe and Roger.

                            Most retail traders have accounts of $1k - $5k and I believe this is part of the reason for high expectations.

                            50% returns on a $1k account is only $41 per month (ignoring the monthly subscription fees).

                            On a much larger account this equation makes more sense.

                            My observations are that there are two kinds of traders.

                            1) Traders with sub $5k who are willing to risk most (or all) of their account in the hopes of returning 1-500% per annum.
                            2) Traders that want to use signals to grow a larger pool of funds over the long term using a slow and steady system.

                            The two groups are mutually exclusive in my opinion.

                            It's the difference between gambling and investing.
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                            • #15
                              Interesting ideas guys. I agree with what you have to say, Emil. Joe - Your metric is a very useful and realistic one.

                              I'm guessing that over the long term, liveforextrading wants to cater for those with both larger and smaller accounts, and for varying risk appetites and profit targets. I understand that from your perspective, Nick, if your market consists of smaller retail investors then necessarily you have to cater more energetically for their needs.

                              You make an interesting observation, Nick, about gambling/trading and investing, when you say that the two groups are mutually exclusive. I would concur with that and add for further insight that the two 'groups', as it were, may be defined not as different groups of individuals necessarily, but as two 'exclusive' approaches, which may be the double prongs of an individual's trading strategy.

                              In other words, I might 'gamble' on one smaller account and 'invest' on one larger account.

                              Great discussion as usual, guys.