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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Will the ECB be hawkish this time?

    More at: http://bit.ly/2D6zQWy

    09.04.2019

    The European central bank will release its monetary policy statement and conduct a press conference on April 10 at 14:45 MT time.

    We don’t expect the ECB to change its interest rate which is currently kept at 0%. However, the ECB president Mario Draghi may provide some hints on the possible changes to the current monetary policy amid the global slowdown. Last time his dovish comments on the current economic weakness in Europe pulled the EUR lower. If he is more hawkish this time, the EUR will rise.

    • If the ECB is hawkish, the EUR will go up.

    • If the ECB is dovish, the EUR will go down.

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    LESSON 20. Margin, Leverage, Margin Call, Stop Out.

    How much money should you have on your account to keep trading? It’s logical that you will need money to maintain open positions.
    The necessary sum is called margin. Forex brokers set margin requirements for clients.

    Let’s get to learn!

    http://bit.ly/2WXwixF

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------


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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Evergreen buck is stuck in a range

    http://bit.ly/2G23Q88

    05.04.2019

    On Friday, the evergreen buck is settling into rather a tight band ahead of the crucial American employment report.

    The greenback obtained just short-lived support from Trump’s remarks, indicating that a trade deal is still four weeks away and provided no details about the unresolved issues.

    Estimating the greenback’s purchasing potential in contrast with its main peers the USD index hit 96.852, tumbling by 0.1% from its overnight maximum.

    The UK pound is also range-bound because the financial markets wait for the result of efforts by UK Prime Minister Theresa May as well as opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn to come to a compromise on an alternative to the Withdrawal Agreement discussed with the European bloc.

    The UK currency has been underpinned by Wednesday’s vote that further constrained the UK cabinet’s ability to pick crashing out without transitional deals in place at the end of next week. As for a no-deal Brexit, it still appears to be the legal default, unless the EU members agree unanimously to have the deadline extended. EU Council President Donald Tusk offers a 12-month extension, while French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire told that there should a persuasive reason.

    The common currency is a bit stronger after German industrial output in February went up a bit more than anticipated, taking the edge off Thursday’s downbeat mood over another slump in manufacturing orders. Brexit woes along with the global deceleration have a strong impact on German industry, as some experts explained.

    Additionally, the Turkish lira is still pressured after a smaller-than-anticipated ascend in the major bank’s foreign reserves the previous week. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen was a bit weaker after dismal household spending data.

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    NFP will bring volatility to the USD

    More at: http://bit.ly/2UibN1w

    04.04.2019

    The United States will release the level of Non-Farm Employment Change, also known as Nonfarm Payrolls or NFP, at 15:30 MT time on April 5.

    The NFP represents the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. This is one of the most important measures of employment in the US. Traders pay huge attention to this indicator, as it makes the greenback extremely volatile after the release. Last time, the indicator reached only 20 thousand payrolls (vs. 180 thousand jobs expected). It weakened the USD. Let’s see if the indicator comes out higher this time.

    • If the NFP is higher than expected, the USD will rise.

    • If the NFP is lower than expected, the USD will fall.

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Risk hunger continues: US-China deal is in focus

    More at: http://bit.ly/2CWvJfH

    03.04.2019

    Today's risk-on sentiment in the markets was provoked by the anticipation of the trade negotiations between the US and China. The high-level talks resume in Washington as China's Vice Premier Liu He plans to meet with US trade representatives. Last week China made significant progress towards reaching a deal as it announced various concessions. These concessions included an extension of the suspension of retaliatory tariffs on US autos and regulation of the opioid fentanyl.

    According to Myron Brilliant, executive vice president for international affairs at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, 90% of the deal is done at the moment. However, the final 10% is the trickiest part that would require compromise.

    What does the final 10% include?

    One of the major sticking points is connected with the US enforcement and implementation mechanism. This mechanism will ensure that China follows the outlines of the deal.
    Another issue is connected with the removal of the existing US tariffs on Chinese goods. Up to know, the US hasn't responded to this demand.

    That is, if these issues remain unsolved, the uncertainties will hurt the risk-on atmosphere in the market.

    What about the currencies?

    If the sides make positive progress today, the risk appetite in the market will push the NZD, the AUD and the emerging market currencies higher.

    Let’s consider the key levels for the New Zealand dollar.

    On the daily chart, the NZD/USD pair has bounced from the support at the weekly pivot at 0.6741, which lies close to the 200-day SMA. Up to now, the kiwi is targeting the resistance at the weekly pivot at 0.6833. If this level is broken, the next resistance will lie at 0.6892. In case of the risk aversion, the pair will fall below the 0.6741 level. The next key support will be placed at 0.6682. If we look at indicators, ADX shows the bearish pressure, while Parabolic SAR demonstrates the downward movement.

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Fractals

    http://bit.ly/2UpZgIB

    A fractal is a pattern in which the same configuration occurs throughout the structure, on a variety of different scales. In other words, it’s a pattern that can be subdivided into similar patterns similar to each other and to the parent pattern.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------


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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    5 important things this week will bring us!

    More at: http://bit.ly/2HSpE88

    01.04.2019

    The beginning of the week has brought risk-on sentiment into the market after the continuation of trade talks between China and the US and positive figures of Chinese manufacturing PMI for March. Let’s see what else will impact on the market this week.

    US retail sales and core retail sales (Mon, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT)) – According to analysts, the level of retail sales will rise by 0.3%. At the same time, its core level is expected to advance by 0.4%. Higher-than-expected figures will boost the USD.

    Rate statement by the Reserve bank of Australia (Tue, 06:30 MT (04:30 GMT)) – The RBA will not make any changes to its rate which is currently set at 1.5%. However, the central bank may provide some hints on the possible changes to its future monetary policy. As some analysts predict the rate cut soon, it would be interesting to see the outlines of the statement and to consider the moves of the AUD.

    US core durable goods orders (Tue, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT)) – We anticipate the change in the total value of core durable goods orders to increase by 0.3%. If the actual figures are higher, the USD will be supported.

    NFP (Fri, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT)) – Analysts project the level of non-farm payrolls to advance by 175 thousand jobs. The higher level will be appreciated by the USD bulls.

    Canadian jobs data (Fri, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT)) – The level of employment change is expected to decline by 10,000 people, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 5.8%. If the employment change is higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the expectations, the CAD will go up.

    Hot topics:

    Trade talks between the US and China will continue on Wednesday in Washington. Last week, the Chinese government announced about the extension of retaliatory tariffs on US automobiles and include fentanyl in a list of controlled drugs. This is one of the factors which resulted in risk-on sentiment in the market.

    During the early trading session, the release of the Chinese PMI reduced worries about the economic slowdown in the country. The indicator reached 50.5 points (vs. 49.6 points expected). It helped the aussie and the kiwi to get positive momentum today.

    British Parliament will hold another round of indicative votes today at 22:00 MT time. The members of the parliament will decide on the future of Brexit. If they fail, the UK will either leave on April 12 without a deal or apply for a longer extension and participate in the European Parliament elections

    Pay attention!

    From today, MT4, MT5, and FBS Trader platform clock have turned 1 hour ahead.

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Weekly Cryptonews

    Read more: http://bit.ly/2Ucu9RT

    29.03.2019

    Andreas Antonopoulos, Bitcoin guru: “I would say Bitcoin is the fifth evolution of money in its most abstract form coupled to a new governance model that delivers the purest form of network governance we’ve ever seen.”

    Let’s look at the daily chart of Bitcoin. The week has been optimistic for the digital currency. On Tuesday, it bounced from the $3,935 level rose higher. At the moment, the oldest cryptocurrency is targeting the resistance at $4,212. If this level is broken, the next resistance will lie at $4,291. If bears take over the market, Bitcoin will plunge to the support at $4,037. The next support is placed at $3,935. What about indicators? Parabolic SAR shows an upward movement for the digital asset, while ADX demonstrates the strength of bulls. If we look at RSI, we see that the indicator is approaching the overbought zone, if it enters this zone and leaves it, it may provide a short-term selling opportunity.



    New announces:

    Japanese online retailer Rakuten and Yahoo! Japan got the government’s approval for launching their own crypto trading platforms.
    Linh Thanh Group and KRONN Ventures got a license for the creation of the first regulated crypto exchange platform in Vietnam. At the same time, cryptocurrencies are banned in the country.
    Wuabit company develops a crypto wallet for WhatsApp. Does Zuckerberg know about it?
    Pantera Capital venture company invested $160 million in crypto exchange platforms and blockchain startups. It’s worth to mention that they planned to gain $15 million more.
    Apple announced the launch of a virtual credit card with free support.
    Largest railway company of Japan JR East considers starting accepting crypto.
    Pay attention:

    Kaspersky Lab antivirus company warns about the Lazarus hacker group, which has prepared new scenarios for attacking crypto exchange platforms and their users.

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    China’s March factory activity shrinks for the fourth month

    More at: http://bit.ly/2JMd8Jr

    28.03.2019

    In China, in March, factory activity tumbled for a fourth straight month, in a sign that the Chinese economy is still losing steam. It contributed to fears about faltering global surge.

    A dismal outcome, coming on the heels of the steepest dive in industrial gain for 7 years, would underline the necessity of greater stimulus as the Chinese government struggles to fix the national economy and resolve a bruising trade conflict with America.

    The official Purchasing Managers' Index hit 49.5, soaring a bit from February's outcome of 49.2, although still below the 50 mark, which separates contraction from expansion on a monthly basis.

    In March, seasonal factors probably drove the uptick in the factory indicator because factories increased activity after last month’s long Lunar New Year holidays. Besides this, some steel mills have also began to ramp up output as winter smog restrictions are over.

    While weakness in the headline result is generally anticipated, policymakers and traders will probably focus on whether there’s any improvement in domestic orders responding to a series of surge boosting measures for the last time.

    Export orders will probably stay weak because China's trade-oriented neighbors, including South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan have all faced decelerating demand.

    Tit-for-tat levies slapped by China and America remain in place as they keep negotiating their trade issues. However, with the everlasting trade conflict, which has disrupted the flow of billions of dollars of goods between the two leading economies, no one knows for sure whether an agreement acceptable to the partners can be made or not.

    On Wednesday, US statesmen told that China and America have achieved progress in all negotiated areas.

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Asian stocks stand still as traders weigh American recession risk

    http://bit.ly/2Yq9IPP

    27.03.2019

    On Wednesday, Asian stocks were generally intact because traders tried to come to terms with a steep shift in American bond markets as well as the implications for the world's number one economy.

    London's FTSE Frankfurt's DAX and France’s CAC are expected to head north 0.2%- 0.4% when they start.

    MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific stocks surged by 0.1%, Japan's Nikkei average headed south by 0.2%.

    As for Chinese stocks, they managed to outperform their Asian rivals on hopes that the Chinese cabinet would come up with more measures to back surge after data revealed industrial profits dived the most since late 2011.

    The Chinese benchmark Shanghai Composite rallied by 0.5%, while the blue-chip CSI 300 tacked on by 0.8%. Moreover, the Hang Seng inched up by 0.6% in Hong Kong.

    On Tuesday, Wall Street's key indexes demonstrated firm revenue, although concluded below their session maximums reacting to the underlying fears about the economic outlook.

    Aside from that, the S&P 500 tacked on by 0.72%, while the Nasdaq Composite managed to inch up by 0.71%.

    The 10-year U.S. Treasuries gain went up to 2.432% from Monday's 15-month minimum of 2.377%, although the yield curve was still inverted, with three-month bills reporting 2.461%, which is more than 10-year bonds.

    The inversion puzzled many traders as this phenomenon has preceded every American downtime for the last 50 years, provoking a drastic selloff in stock markets worldwide late the previous week as well as a stampede into longer-dated American government debt.

    In February, home building decreased more than anticipated because construction of single-family houses went down to an almost two-year minimum, while the consumer confidence index by the Conference Board suddenly inched down.

    The evergreen buck rebounded to 110.61, from Monday's 1-1/2-month minimum of 109.70.

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Is there any hope for the kiwi?

    Check it out: http://bit.ly/2YnOAcM

    26.03.2019

    The Reserve bank of New Zealand will make its rate statement and publish its official interest rate on March 27, at 3:00 MT time. The bank is not going to make any changes to its interest rate, but we need to pay attention to the tone of the statement. During the February's meeting, the RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said that the current interest rate would be kept at the current level through 2019 and 2020. Despite this dovish statement, he sounded optimistic about the economic outlook. As a result, the kiwi was boosted. Will it happen this time?

    • If the RBNZ is positive, the NZD will rise.

    • If the RBNZ is negative, the NZD will fall.

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    5 important things this week will bring us!

    More at: http://bit.ly/2utwhp1

    25.03.2019

    The dovish Fed, the slowdown in Europe and Brexit were among the things that moved the market last week. Let’s look at this week’s opportunities.

    Rate statement by the Reserve bank of New Zealand (Wed, 03:00 MT (01:00 GMT)) – The rate hike is not expected, but the RBNZ governor Adrian Orr may throw some hints on the possible changes to the central bank’s monetary policy in future.

    Speech by the ECB president Mario Draghi (Wed, 10:00 MT (8:00 GMT)) – The European Central bank’s president Mario Draghi will make his speech at the ECB and Its Watchers conference in Frankfurt. We may expect some supportive comments for the EUR.

    Canadian trade balance (Wed, 14:30 MT (13:30 GMT)) – According to the forecasts, the trade deficit of Canada will likely show less decline, than in the previous month. If the actual figures are greater, the CAD will rise.

    US final GDP q/q (Thu, 14:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – Analysts expect the American GDP growth to reach 2.4%. If the actual number is higher, the USD will get positive momentum.

    Canadian GDP m/m (Fri, 14:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – Last time the Canadian GDP growth declined by 0.1%. The projections for this week’s release will be published later. Higher-than-expected actual figures will boost the CAD.

    Hot topics:

    The Brexit tensions continue this week. After the huge protests in the UK during the weekend, the British prime minister started to lose the support amid the members of her own Cabinet. Today, the British lawmakers will vote on whether to come up with alternatives to the Brexit deal. The votes are expected to start at 00:00 MT time. If this motion is done successfully, lawmakers will take part in a series of indicative votes on Tuesday or Wednesday.

    The trade talks between the US and China will resume this week in Beijing on March 28-29. A breakthrough in the negotiations will bring support to the risk-weighted assets. Up to now, the sides have been optimistic on reaching a deal soon.

    Pay attention to the Boao forum which starts this Tuesday in China. The Chinese officials including Central Bank Governor Yi Gang and Finance Minister Liu Kun are going to speak at the conference. Their comments may affect the risk sentiment in the markets.

    Turkey will hold its local elections on March 31. After the sudden plunge of the Turkish lira on Friday, the officials started investigations into JPMorgan Chase & Co. and other banks. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned that bankers, which responsible for speculating against the currency would be punished.



    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Scaling in and out of positions

    Imagine, you opened your position, placed stop loss and take profit. What would be your next steps? Well, you may just sit and wait for further market moves. On the other hand, professional traders try to be more flexible while making their trading decisions by scaling in and out opened positions. If you want to trade more like a pro, then this article is for you! Let’s find out what is scaling and how you need to apply it correctly to manage your risks.

    Learn with all details
    http://bit.ly/2OjgceB
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    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    The volatility for the CAD is expected

    More at: http://bit.ly/2TNlTHH

    21.03.2019

    Canada will release the level of core retail sales and CPI on March 22, at 14:30 MT time. CPI represents the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. It's a very important indicator of inflation due to its early release and broad scope. CPI will be released at the same time with the level of core retail sales. Core retail sales show the change in the total value of sales, excluding automobiles. Together, they may provide great volatility to the loonie. Last time, CPI increased by 0.1% (lower than the forecasts), while core retail sales remained at the same level. Will the indicators outperform the forecasts this time?

    • If the actual levels of indicators are higher, the CAD will go up;

    • If the actual levels of indicators are lower, the CAD will go down.

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Greenback rallies on trade war jitters

    More on: http://bit.ly/2U2O5p2

    20.03.2019

    On Wednesday, the evergreen buck went up, attracting safe-haven bids following reports of further tension in US-China trade talks, although its profits were minor, with caution anticipated from the major US bank at its policy gathering later in the day.

    Volatility in the Forex market has receded because of a dovish shift by key financial institutions, including the Fed.

    The adverse impact on the evergreen buck from the pause in the major US bank’s interest-rate-lifting cycle has been somewhat affected by a cautious ECB having to deal with a struggling euro zone economy.

    The Federal Reserve is generally expected to remain its interest rate on hold.

    Bets on an interest rate cut have tacked on following Friday’s weaker-than-anticipated manufacturing data.

    Notwithstanding the downbeat outlook, on Wednesday, the evergreen buck managed to rally versus the Australian dollar as well as Japan’s yen and the Canadian dollar.

    As a matter of fact, the Australian dollar went down by 0.25% concluding the trading session at $0.7070.

    Versus a basket of major counterparts, the evergreen buck rallied by 0.1% coming up with an outcome of 96.454 having demonstrated its lowest outcome since March 1 - 96.291.

    The vast majority of currencies are still within well-trodden ranges before the Fed verdict.

    Some experts told that the evergreen buck might not dive a lot on the Fed gathering because traders have already priced in the Fed scaling back its interest rate outlook.

    On Wednesday, the common currency slumped a bit versus the evergreen buck demonstrating a reading of $1.1344.

    As for the UK pound, it headed south by about 0.3% showing $1.3220 on fears that Theresa May’s request to postpone Brexit might fail.

    Leave a comment:

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