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  • Will the Australian jobs data push the AUD?

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    The levels of employment change and the unemployment rate for Australia are expected on April 18, at 4:30 MT time.

    Job creation is an important indicator, which is connected to consumer spending. The more people are employed, the more money they can spend. Last time the level of employment change came out much lower than the expectations (4.6K vs 14.8K). At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to 4.9%. Let's see if the indicators support the Australian currency this time.

    • If the employment change is higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the aussie will rise;

    • If the employment change is lower and the unemployment rate is higher than the forecasts, the aussie will fall.


    • Changes in Trading Schedule due to Good Friday!

      This year April 19 is marked by Good Friday – a symbolic holiday for Christians. On this day believers go on fasting, attend special religious services in churches, and prefer to stay concentrated on the thoughts about their mission in the world.


      • British customers remain calm

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        UK customers generally neglected fears about an impending Brexit deadline. As a result, they spent a lot this month, as official data revealed on Thursday.

        As a matter of fact, in annual terms, retail sales volumes managed to jump by the most for two-and-a-half years, soaring by 6.7%, as the Office for National Statistics informed.

        The given outcome surpassed all estimates in a Reuters survey of experts.

        As ONS officials told, the jump in part reflected the peak of spending in 2018, when the United Kingdom was affected by a series of snowstorms as well as icy weather.

        This year, warm weather in March really assisted to ramp up spending of UK customers on clothing.

        Sales went up by 1.1% in monthly terms, thus confounding the median estimate of a 0.3% dive in the Reuters survey.

        For the first three months of this year, a smoother outcome of spending patterns, sales headed north by 1.6% in contrast with the previous three months, which appears to be the strongest jump since August last year.

        The United Kingdom was originally due to depart from the European bloc on March 29, although that deadline was pushed back to April 12 and after this again to October 31 due to the fact UK Prime Minister Theresa May didn’t manage to break an impasse in the British legislative body on the terms of Brexit.

        By the way, the figures uncovered on Thursday by the ONS covered the period February 24- March 30.

        Additionally, consumer spending has underpinned the British economy through the Brexit downtime, in steep contrast to businesses that have cut back on investment.

        The Bank of England has forecast the slowest economic surge for a decade in 2019.


        • Tunisia and Afghanistan intend to issue Bitcoin bonds

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          The major financial institutions of Afghanistan and Tunisia are geared up towards issuing a Bitcoin bond. That’s what Asia Times, Hong Kong-based news outlet informed on April 17.

          The chiefs of the two country’s major banks delivered a speech at the annual Spring Meetings of the Boards of Governors of the World Bank Group as well as the International Monetary Fund in Washington in April 8-14. Additionally, Khalil Sediq, Afghanistan’s major bank chief revealed to Asia Times that the bank is about to issue a sovereign crypto bond for the purpose of raising $5.8 billion.

          The funds would be utilized for private-sector investment in energy, agriculture, and mining. Aside from Bitcoin, Sediq also mentioned metal futures, in particular, lithium and also stressed that Afghanistan’s mineral reserves are expected to be worth more than $3 trillion.

          Additionally, the governor of Tunisia’s major financial institution and also ex-World Bank official, Marouane El Abassi came up with a statement that the major bank is also considering the issuance of a bitcoin bond. Abassi added that Tunisia turned out to be one of the first to issue a crypto asset as well as already implemented payments via a digital system.

          In addition to this, Abassi also recommended blockchain, Hyperledger, and Bitcoin as a tool for major financial institutions to withstand money laundering, fight terrorism, manage remittances and also tame grey economies. Aside from that, the article also noted that Uzbek ambassador Javlon Vakhabov told his country doesn’t exclude the development of a Bitcoin bond.

          As Cointelegraph informed in September in 2018, Austria’s cabinet also started €1.15 billion of government bonds on the Ethereum public blockchain.

          In March, Germany’s justice as well as finance ministries have offered to launch a state-run register to spur the employment of blockchain for e-bonds.


          • Will the Bank of Canada shake the loonie?

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            The bank of Canada will make its monetary policy statement and announce the official rate on April 24, at 17:00 MT time.

            We anticipate the interest rate to remain unchanged at 1.75%. However, the Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz may throw some hints on the possible changes to the monetary policy of the bank in the future amid the global uncertainties. As the rumors about the possible rate cut keep circulating, it would be interesting to hear the opinion of the BOC governor. Moreover, his comments will likely affect the performance of the Canadian dollar.

            • If the BOC is hawkish, the Canadian dollar will go up;

            • If the BOC is dovish, the Canadian dollar will go down.

            Check the economic calendar


            • Bitcoin overleaps 5,512.9

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              On Tuesday, Bitcoin managed to overleap the $5,512.9 mark.

              As a matter of fact, the number one cryptocurrency, Bitcoin hit 5,512.9 on the Index, heading north by up to 5.16%. The given reading happened to be the most impressive one-day percentage ascend since April 2.

              In fact, the move upwards pushed Bitcoin's market capitalization up hitting $94.3B, which appears to be 52.12% of the overall crypto market capitalization. By the way, at its highest value, this digital coin’s market capitalization accounted for $241.2B.

              For the last 24 hours, Bitcoin had fluctuated in a band of $5,291.4-$5,573.3.

              For the last week, Bitcoin has faced an ascend in value, so it tacked on by about 4.83%. Eventually, the overall volume of Bitcoin traded for the twenty-four hours to time of writing amounted to $13.2B that stands for 31.69% of the overall volume of all digital coins. For the last week, the most popular crypto asset has fluctuated in a band of $5,165.5171-$5,573.3140.

              By the way, at its current value, the most popular digital currency is still down 72.26% from its all-time peak of $19,870.62, which was achieved on December 17, 2017.

              In addition to this, on the Index, Ethereum hit $175.11, soaring by up to 3.44% on the day.

              Aside from that, on the Index, XRP was worth $0.32560, thus demonstrating a 0.22% leap.

              As for Ethereum's market capitalization, last it amounted to $18.4B, which stands for 10.17% of the overall crypto market capitalization. Additionally, XRP's market capitalization managed to reach an outcome of $13.9B, which amounts to up to 7.67% of the overall cryptocurrency market value.


              • Scalping

                It is one of the most popular forms of trading, especially among newcomers. It is a fast-paced, mind-rattling, and an adrenaline-inducing type of trading.
                The main objective of scalping is to rush into the trade at the busiest hours of the day, grab a very small amount of pips and exit the market immediately. .
                Let's learn more about Scalping!




                • European stocks go down

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                  On Thursday, European stocks declined after a mixed pack of earnings from the region as well as worries for the euro zone economy resurfaced following a dismal German sentiment poll yesterday.

                  Eventually, the Finnish telecom network equipment maker went down by 10% that appears to be its steepest slump for 18 months after it posted a shocking quarterly loss, referring to hard competition in its core networks business.

                  The pan-European STOXX 600 index tumbled by 0.1% following an eight-session ascend in the benchmark index recorded on Wednesday.

                  Nokia's dive helped to bring the tech index 0.9% down after yesterday’s 4% leap.

                  The UK’s FTSE lagged, affected in part by the country's number three homebuilder Taylor Wimpey that warned its full-year margins would be a bit lower. Moreover, it also suppressed its peers.

                  Sainsbury's went down by 5% after the UK’s competition watchdog blocked the retailer's proposed 7.3 billion pound takeover of Walmart-owned Asda.

                  German heavyweight Bayer went up because the drug and farming supplies company reported a 45% leap in quarterly core earnings against the backdrop of seed maker Monsanto's acquisition.

                  Besides this, semiconductor maker ASM rallied by 7.8% to the top of the regional index having beaten first-quarter objectives, while Germany's Dialog Semiconductor headed north by over 1% having predicted higher than expected gains in the first quarter.

                  Aside from that, the banking index headed south by 0.3%, suppressed by Barclays as well as Swedbank stocks.

                  Britain's Barclays declined having posted a 10% dive in quarterly gain because its under-pressure investment bank struggled with tough financial markets.

                  Eventually, Swedbank declined more than 3% having posted an estimate-beating first-quarter gain because the Swedish lender admitted to previous faults in fighting money laundering.

                  Deutsche stocks jumped by 4.7%, while those of Commerzbank decreased by 2.5%.


                  • 5 important events this week will bring us!

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                    Canadian GDP growth (Tue, 15:30 MT) – If the indicator outperforms the forecasts, the loonie will get boosted.

                    Jobs data for New Zealand (Wed, 01:45 MT) – Analysts anticipate the level of employment change to increase by 0.5%. As for the unemployment rate, it is projected to decline to 4.2%. Higher figures for the employment change and lower for the unemployment rate will be positive for the NZD.

                    FOMC statement (Wed, 21:00 MT) – The Federal Reserve will keep its interest rate unchanged at 2.5%. Traders need to pay attention to the tone of the statement and comments by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell. If they are hawkish, the USD will be supported.

                    BOE monetary policy summary (Thu, 14:00 MT) – The Bank of England’s future steps have been covered with the Brexit fog after the previous meeting, that is why any supportive comments by the BOE governor will be good for the GBP.

                    NFP (Fri, 15:30 MT) - The most anticipated indicator will advance by 181 thousand payrolls, according to forecasts. If the actual level is higher, the USD will rise.

                    Hot topics:

                    The US-China trade talks will continue this week on April 30 in Beijing. According to the US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, the sides are heading close to the final agreement. However, the key issues including intellectual property and forced technology transfer are still unresolved. Positive progress in these negotiations will increase the risk-on sentiment in the market.

                    Oil fell after the demand of US president Donald Trump to raise the output to soften the impact of the American sanctions against Iran.

                    Theresa May tries to find a way to secure the Brexit deal before the EU elections on May 23. Reportedly, the government is not ready to have another vote for the deal in Parliament this week.


                    • Evergreen buck goes down for the third day

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                      On Tuesday, the evergreen buck went down versus key counterparts, slumping for a third day in a row because signs of decelerating inflation cemented market hopes that the Fed will have its rates cut in 2019.

                      Gauging the greenback’s purchasing power against its primary peers the USD index headed south by about 0.3% showing 97.34.

                      On Tuesday, policymakers started a two-day gathering, widely anticipated to bring no changes to interest rates when the decision is revealed a day later.

                      In 2019, the major US bank changed its tune because fears over global surge as well as poor inflation made it retreat from previous estimates that it would lift rates twice this year and also be patient enough with further tightening.

                      However, financial markets have gone further, pricing in over a 60% likelihood that the major US bank will have interest rates cut in December.

                      Last Friday, the evergreen buck started its current stretch of dives against the backdrop of signs of decreasing price pressures. Additionally, inflation data uncovered with first-quarter surge numbers the previous week as well as the core personal consumption expenditures price index for March have seen the greenback rebound from near two-year maximums.

                      The currency pair rallied versus the evergreen buck because better-than-anticipated economic surge in the euro zone backed the euro.

                      Furthermore, cable was boosted on reports that cross-party negotiations between ruling Conservatives as well as the opposition Labour Party over Brexit, and Britain’s departure from the EU is demonstrating decent progress.

                      Tokyo markets are unavailable this week for a holiday that experts tell exacerbate volatility because of the lack of liquidity, although the Japanese yen still managed to go up to three-week maximums.


                      • American futures rally as traders cheer Apple’s outcomes

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                        On Wednesday, American stock index futures went up, pointing to a firm start for Wall Street due to the fact that Apple’s stellar outcomes and forecast soothed worries about the decelerating surge in corporate gains.

                        Stocks of the iPhone maker leapt by 5.8% right after it told that sales in China were stabilizing and also touted how soaring demand for its services as well as accessories helped to compensate a record dive in iPhone profit.

                        Besides this, the company also uncovered plans for another $75 billion share buyback and had its cash dividend ramped up by 5%.

                        On Tuesday, the S&P 500 index demonstrated another record maximum as well as its best four-month surge for almost nine years.

                        Experts are quite optimistic on first-quarter earnings surge and expect a 0.7% leap in contrast with a 2% dive estimated at the beginning of April.

                        Aside from a mostly better-than-anticipated earnings season, recent profits in stocks have also been driven by upbeat economic reports, a dovish Fed as well as hints of progress in US-China trade negotiations.

                        Additionally, the major US bank, which will conclude its two-day gathering later in the day, is generally anticipated to keep borrowing costs intact and stick with a cautious monetary policy stance, notwithstanding Donald Trump's call to decrease interest rates.

                        ET, Dow e-minis ascended by 0.27%. As for S&P 500 e-minis, it soared by 0.29%, while Nasdaq 100 e-minis rallied by 0.66%.

                        Among other shares, Advanced Micro Devices Inc headed north by 5.1% because the chipmaker's quarterly gain beat Wall Street estimates as it managed to sell more chips in servers and data centers. Other chip stocks rallied too, with Micron Technology Inc, Qualcomm, and Nvidia Corp soaring 1%-1.6%.


                        • Yellow metal inches down on potential trade agreement

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                          On Thursday, gold headed south, just a day after the major US bank stood pat on monetary policy and also hinted that interest rates would probably stand still for a longer period.

                          On the Comex exchange, June delivery gold futures headed south by about 0.7% concluding the trading session at $1,275.15 an ounce.

                          In a news conference, which followed Fed gathering, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told that Fed stance is quite adequate at the moment and they don’t see any reasons to move in either direction.

                          As for trade volumes, they were still thin due to the fact, financial markets in China and Japan were unavailable because of holidays.

                          Moving in directions opposite to the yellow commodity and estimating the purchasing power of the greenback versus a number of its main rivals the USD index headed south by 0.1% ending up with 97.338.

                          In addition to this, a report posted by CNBC, which came up with a suggestion that China and the United States might announce a trade agreement next Friday also underpinned risk sentiment and put pressure on the yellow metal.

                          Besides this, another round of trade negotiations between China and the United States wrapped up in China’s capital on Wednesday with the American Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin calling those meetings quite fruitful.

                          Next week the everlasting trade talks will proceed in Washington. As follows from a number of anonymous sources, the two leading economies might manage to come to a compromise already by next Friday.

                          In addition to this, the evergreen buck tacked on a bit versus the Japanese yen, and also dived a bit against the New Zealand and Australian dollars.


                          • Bitcoin overleaps $5,500

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                            On Friday, key digital coins gained momentum in Asia, with Bitcoin rallying above the major mark $5,500. Facebook is reportedly looking for partners for its scheduled cryptocurrency payment service.

                            Eventually, Bitcoin headed north by up to 6.08% coming up with a reading of $5,581.5, hitting a one-week maximum. The digital token rebounded to the $5,500 mark having lost its grip on it on April 24.

                            In addition to this, Ethereum surged by 3.32% being worth $160.38, while XRP managed to tack on by up to 0.18% concluding the trading session at $0.30446. Besides this, Litecoinrose surged by nearly 7.23% reaching $74.698.

                            The overall market capitalization went up further to $179.6 billion from yesterday’s reading of $175 million.

                            The biggest news in the cryptocurrency community today had to do with Facebook as well as its cryptocurrency payment service, which is under development.

                            The Wall Street Journal informed that the social media giant is negotiation with financial as well as e-commerce businesses, including MasterCard and Visa to back the payment service Project Libra.

                            The project suggests launching a digital token, which would be backed by blockchain technology and also pegged to the evergreen buck. An upbeat way to promote its adoption is that Facebook users are able to acquire fractions of the token by simply viewing ads. Moreover, users of Facebook’s messaging application WhatsApp can also utilize this crypto token to transfer funds to one another.

                            Moreover, an independent nonprofit institute, the Information Technology & Innovation Foundation came up with suggestions on how to regulate blockchain technology that attracted some attention among cryptocurrency traders.

                            By the way, ITIF urged the policymakers to uphold such principles as technology neutrality as well as public-sector adoption.


                            • Trading plan for May 6

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                              Pay attention to the market sentiment today!

                              During the Asian trading hours, the risk sentiment in the market was covered in red after the tweet by US president Donald Trump. He said that US tariffs on 200 billion of Chinese goods will go up from 10% to 25%. This news created rumors about the possible delay of the trade negotiations between the US and China and pulled the risk-weighted assets down. At the same time, the safe-haven Japanese yen gained significantly.

                              Later, China expressed hopes that the negotiations will continue in Washington. The Chinese part confirmed the preparation of the delegation to the US for further talks. It helped the risk sentiment to recover a little bit. For how long, though?

                              If Mr. Trump surprises us with more negative comments or China cancels its delegation for further talks on May 8, the risk aversion will appear and pull the risky assets down.

                              On the daily chart of the AUD/USD pair, it has fallen below the weekly pivot support at 0.6980 but managed to recover towards the resistance at the weekly pivot at 0.7024. If the risk-off sentiment takes over the market, the pair will fall below the 0.6980 level towards the next support at 0.6940. If we look at indicators, Parabolic SAR shows the downward movement for the pair, ADX demonstrates that bearish pressure continues and RSI is placed close to the oversold zone. If it enters this zone and then leaves it, it will provide us a short-term buying opportunity.

                              On the H4, the pair could not overcome the support at 0.6963 and formed an inverted hammer candlestick – a sign of a bullish reversal. At the moment the aussie is targeting the resistance at 0.7. If bulls break this level, the next key resistance will be placed at 0.7024. On the flipside, if the sellers take over the market, they will pull the pair to the support at the weekly pivot at 0.6980. The next support lies at 0.6963.


                              The risk aversion resulted in the gap down day for the USD/JPY pair. It has even tested the ground below the weekly pivot support at 110.50. At the moment, USD/JPY is trading near the 100-day SMA and the resistance at the weekly pivot level at 110.79. If bulls are strong, they will break this level and the next resistances will be placed at 110.93 and 111.05. On the other hand, risk off sentiment will make the pair retest the 110.50 level. The next support will lie at 109.94. Parabolic SAR here demonstrates the downward movement, while ADX shows the strength of bears.

                              Let’s look at the H4. The pair could not stick above the 110.79 level for too long as bears pulled it back to the support at 110.64. If the sentiment in the market is positive, USD/JPY will retest the resistance at 110.79. The next resistance in focus lies at 110.93. Alternatively, we will see a fall towards the support at 110.64. The break of this level will pull the pair lower to the support at 110.64.


                              • Turkish lira goes down

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                                Turkey is making its way towards another currency downtime, with the Turkish lira diving to its lowest value for almost a year after Turkey’s election authorities canceled the recent municipal election outcomes for Istanbul.

                                The decision provoked immediate street riots in Turkey’s largest city against the cabinet of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and pushed the evergreen buck to 6.1976 lira in early trade on Tuesday. It appears to be the highest value since last September, when soaring dollar interest rates along with a heavy foreign debt repayment schedule threatened to heavily impact Turkey’s banking system.

                                The major bank had to have interest rates raised steeply to defend the Turkish lira at the time, while the economic hardship since then made a contribution to Erdogan’s AK party losing control of the country’s three key cities in elections in March. What’s more, his critics currently accuse him of utilizing the state machinery to have a legitimate election overturned.

                                As a matter of fact, the Turkish lira headed south by 2% reacting to the news and has slumped by 1.5% since then. Turkey’s currency was at 6.1707 versus the evergreen buck. For the year, it has rallied by 16.3% against the greenback. The given outcome makes it the worst performing asset of all G-20 currencies, excluding the Argentine peso.

                                In addition to this, the Australian dollar rebounded steeply after the country’s major bank left its cash rate at 1.5%, thus disappointing many investors who had anticipated a rate cut.

                                Gauging the greenback’s purchasing potential versus its main peers the USD index hit 97.155, sliding by 0.1%.

                                Traders are still uncertain what follows from the American decision – whether the US would slap extra duties on Chinese goods or not.