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  • Important events this week will bring us

    More at: http://bit.ly/2p7NdSC

    21.10.2019

    Canada’s core retail sales (Tue, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – According to the forecasts, the indicator will advance by 0.1%. If the actual level is higher, the CAD will rise.

    French flash services PMI, German flash manufacturing PMI and German flash services PMI (Thu, 10:15-10:30 MT (7:15-7:30 GMT)) – Higher-than-expected figures will be positive for the euro.

    A monetary policy statement by the European Central bank and press conference (Thu, 14:45 and 15:30 MT (11:30 and 12:30 GMT)) – The changes to the interest rate are not expected, but we need to pay attention to the tone of the statement and the comments by the ECB president during press conference.

    US core durable goods orders (Thu, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – Analysts forecast a decline of 0.2%. If the actual figures outperform the forecasts, the USD will be supported.

    Hot news:

    During the weekend, the UK Parliament made a vote, which forced the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to write to the EU asking for a three-month extension. Today, Boris Johnson will try again to put his deal to a vote in the House of Commons. At first, it is highly recommended to pay attention to the statement by the speaker John Bercow at 17:30 MT time, where he may announce the decision concerning the meaningful vote.

    Monday is an election day in Canada. Some of the analysts suggest that the Conservative party in the government will be better for the loonie than the current Labour one. The competition is going to be a tight one.



    Comment


    • Market updates on October 22

      More at: http://bit.ly/2N7dYyR

      22.10.2019

      Key events ahead:

      Canada’s core retail sales – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

      BOC business outlook survey – 17:30 MT (14:30 GMT)

      Parliament Brexit Vote – 21:00 MT (18:00 GMT)

      Yesterday, the speaker John Bercow rejected the possibility of a significant vote. The news pulled the GBP down a little bit. Will the vote happen today? If it is, GBP/USD may retest the resistance at 1.2985. The next resistance will lie at 1.3011. After that, the 1.3059 level will be in bulls' focus. In case of a vote's delay, the pair will slide below the lower border of the ascending trading channel and target the support at 1.29. After that, the 1.2864 level will be in the focus of bears. The next support level will be placed at 1.2834.

      USD/CAD formed a Doji candlestick on the 4-hour chart and bounced towards the resistance level at 1.3088. Today, the CAD traders may take advantage of the release of Canada’s core retail sales at 15:30 MT. According to the forecasts, the indicator will remain unchanged. If the actual level is higher, USD/CAD will slide below the 1.3077 level and move down to the next support at 1.3066. After that, reaching the 1.3052 level seems possible. From the upside, the key levels to watch are 1.3088, 1.3098 and 1.3128. RSI is moving within an oversold zone.

      Yesterday, USD/JPY fell lower and tested the support at 108.36. If the risk sentiment is off, the further support levels will lie at 108.13 and 107.91. On the other hand, the pair may rise to the resistance level at 108.73. If it is broken, it is recommended to pay attention to the 108.9 and 109.42 levels.

      Comment


      • Oil market updates on October 23

        More at: http://bit.ly/2MIoOwh

        23.10.2019

        Crude oil inventories – 17:30 MT (14:30 GMT)

        According to yesterday’s news OPEC is considering further production cuts. The next meeting of oil-producing countries is scheduled for December 5-6. The announcement pushed the oil prices up. The move to the downside came after the release of private oil data. According to it, the number of barrels advanced by 4.45 million (vs. the 2.75 million expected). Today, we will be awaiting the publication of crude oil inventories by the EIA at 17:30 MT. According to forecasts, the number of barrels is expected to increase by 2.5 million. In case of lower figures, the oil prices will go up.

        WTI has tested the $54.60 resistance level but slid down towards the support at $54. If the number of barrels is lower than the forecasts, this level will be broken. The next support will be placed at $53.4 (100-period SMA). After that, the further support level will lie at $52.8. In case of a higher-than-expected number of barrels, the pair will break the $54.6 level. The next resistance will lie at $54.93.

        The price of Brent followed a similar scenario. It has tested the $60.25 resistance level but fallen to the support at $59.33 (50-period SMA). At the moment, the further key levels from the downside lie at $58.9 (100-period SMA) and $58.57. From the upside, the first resistance is placed at $59.65. After that, you need to pay attention to the $59.97 level. If they are broken, the retest of the $60.25 level will be possible.

        Notice, that you need to choose BRN- and WTI- futures to trade oil in Metatrader 4.

        Comment


        • Market updates on October 28

          Check the charts: http://bit.ly/349xWzQ

          28.10.2019

          EUR/USD has been making confident steps towards the 1.1106 level on the 4-hour chart. If bears take over the market, the may pull the pair below the 1.1090 level. This scenario will increase the chances of a retest of the 1.1072 support level from October 25. In this case, the downward movement, which is confirmed by Parabolic SAR, may be resumed.

          The news that Brexit would be delayed until January 31, 2020 did not stop the consolidation of GBP/USD on the H4. The upper border of the range is placed at 1.2860. After that, further upside momentum may be limited by the 1.2876 level (50-period SMA). On the chart, you can see that this level lies close to the upper border of the short-term descending channel. As far as buyers overcome this border, the retest of tops from October 24th at 2.2927 seems likely. Bears will be eyeing the support at the lower border of the consolidation range (1.2807). The next key level for them will be placed at 1.2785.

          The gold is also trading sideways between the $1,506 and $1,503 levels. The breakout to the upside may lead bulls to move towards the $1,509 boundary. On the contrary, the consolidation period may be over with bears crossing the $1,503 level. In this case, the chances of reaching $1,500 are high.

          Comment


          • Market updates on October 29

            More at: http://bit.ly/338RvYE

            29.10.2019

            On the H4 of EUR/GBP, we see that the price is testing the psychological level of 0.8612. The pair is consolidating, thus, the further direction will depend on the strength of the euro. If the pair falls below 0.8612, it will slide towards 0.8590. In the case of the reversal, the resistance is placed in the range of 0.8649-0.8663.


            On the H4 of EUR/USD, we see a similar picture, indicating a bearish movement. The price may test the support range 1.1073-1.1061, 1.1038. If the pair sticks above 1.1085, we may see a rise to 1.1105.


            Gold is on the sideways movement, indicating a potential for a rise. On the H1 chart of XAU/USD, it has already broken yesterdays’ resistance and is gradually climbing up towards the resistance levels at 1495.47, 1506.00 and 1514.47. For the market reversion, support levels may be set at 1488.83, 1484.14 and 1480.35.

            Comment


            • USD/CAD has risen by more than 60 pips

              More at: http://bit.ly/338RvYE

              30.10.2019

              The Canadian dollar weakened significantly after the monetary policy decision by the Bank of Canada. Bulls broke the resistance at 1.3144 on H4 and pushed the price above it towards the 100-period SMA and the 1.3174 level. From the downside, the key levels in bears’ focus will be at 1.3077, 1.3067 and 1.3054.

              Comment


              • Market updates on October 31

                Check the charts: http://bit.ly/36pejFT

                31.10.2019

                European Quarterly GDP Growth Rate – 12:00 MT (10:00 GMT)

                American Monthly Personal Income and Personal Spending Index – 14:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

                The US Fed announced the interest rate cut to 1.75% on October 30. EUR/USD reacted by rising. On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the day has started with the price inching into the resistance range of 1.1167 – 1.1177 and possibly aiming at another 3-months resistance level of 1.1217. The support levels of 1.1101 and 1.1076 remain valid unless a strong bearish movement appears on the chart.

                While the Bank of Canada released the unchanged interest rate of 1.75% against the lowered rate of US Fed on October 30, the USD/CAD performed a sharp rise during the announcement. That was due to the negative tone the officials expressed in regards to the likely contractions within the investments, exports, employment growth and global economy slowdown pushing the Bank of Canada to implement monetary ease in the coming future. On the H1 chart of USD/CAD, the price bounced back from the newly formed local resistance level of 1.3180, testing the support level of 1.3152. If it is broken, we will have a range of 1.3120 – 1.3131, 1.3078 and 1.3049 as the support levels. Otherwise, the additional resistance level may be placed at 1.3208.

                On the H4 chart of USD/JPY, the quote has dropped to the support level of 108.65. That was due to the unchanged Japanese interest rate (set at -0.1% as per October 31 release) against the lowered US Fed rate, which led to relative depreciation of the US dollar. However, the likelihood of the monetary ease in the future on behalf of the Bank of Japan keeps the Japanese yen dropping slowly, viewing the resistance levels of 108.99 and 109.254. The support level of 108.55 and the range of 108.34 – 108.41 remains valid.

                Comment


                • Market updates: NFP edition

                  More at: http://bit.ly/2PMx6oz

                  01.11.2019


                  Key events ahead

                  Average hourly earnings – 14:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

                  Non-farm employment change – 14:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

                  Unemployment rate – 14:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

                  The main focus for today will be on the American jobs data at 14:30 MT. According to the forecasts, the level of non-farm payrolls will advance by 89 thousand. At the same time, average hourly earnings will show an increase of 0.3% and the unemployment rate will rise to 3.6%. If the actual levels of NFP and average hourly earnings are higher, and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the USD will strengthen. Let’s consider the most important pairs ahead of the event.

                  Bulls of EUR/USD have not overcome the 1.1166 resistance level on H4 after the Fed rate cut on Wednesday. If the level is broken right after the release, reaching the next resistance at 1.1180 may be possible. The further upside momentum will be limited by the 1.1194 level. On the other hand, if the actual figures come out optimistic for the USD, EUR/USD will reverse towards 1.1131. After the breakout, bears need to focus on the 1.1121 level. The break of that level will be placed at 1.1106.

                  USD/JPY has stuck below the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart after yesterday’s plunge. The USD needs to be boosted by the positive NFP figures to break the current resistance at 108.53 and move upwards to the 108.15, 108.24 and 108.41 levels. From the downside, the breakout of the 107.93 level will open the way for bears towards the 107.8 level. The next support will lie at 107.65. RSI oscillator is oversold, that is why the continuation of the downside momentum may be expected.

                  An upside momentum for the price of gold is the result of the mixed news concerning US-China trade truce and the weak USD. Currently, the price of the yellow metal is overbought on H4 according to RSI and testing the $1,514 resistance level. If the USD weakens on the job data, the breakout of that resistance will be inevitable. That kind of scenario may lead to the retest of the $1,518 level (high of October 25th). The next key level will be situated at $1,524. On the contrary, the first support will be placed at $1,509.2. The next one will lie at $1,504.

                  Comment


                  • 5 important events this week will bring us

                    More at: http://bit.ly/2WLTNL5

                    04.11.2019

                    RBA rate statement (Tue, 5:30 MT (3:30 GMT)) – According to forecasts, the interest rate will remain steady at 0.75%. We will keep an eye on the monetary policy statement, where the regulator may throw some hints on the possible changes to the monetary policy.

                    Canada’s trade balance (Tue, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT)) – If the actual level of indicator is higher than the forecasts, the CAD will go up.

                    New Zealand’s employment change and unemployment rate (Tue, 23:45 MT (21:45 GMT)) – Analysts anticipate the employment change to increase by 0.2%. At the same time, the unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 4.1%. Higher-than-expected figures of employment change and lower level of the unemployment rate will be NZD-positive.

                    BOE monetary policy summary (Thu, 14:00 MT (12:00 GMT)) – The interest rate is expected to stay at 0.75%. The possible move for the British pound may come with the release of the monetary policy statement. Any hawkish comments concerning the bank’s policy amid the Brexit mess will support the British pound.

                    Canada’s employment change and unemployment rate (Fri, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT)) – If the actual level of employment change is higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the Canadian dollar will get positive momentum.

                    Hot news:

                    During the ASEAN summit this weekend, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross expressed optimism that the US would reach a “phase one” trade deal with China this month and said licenses would be coming soon for American companies to sell components to Huawei Technologies Co. The news boosted the risk-on sentiment in the markets.

                    Christine Lagarde will make her first speech as a president of the European Central Bank this evening at 20:30 MT (18:30 GMT) time.



                    Comment


                    • 5 important events this week will bring us

                      More at: http://bit.ly/2O335OY

                      11.11.2019

                      British preliminary yearly GDP growth rate (Mon, 11:30 MT time (09:30 GMT)) – according to forecasts, the yearly GDP growth rate will be at 1.1% against the higher 1.3% previous mark. The GBP price shall not change much unless the release is higher than the expectation.

                      New Zealand’s interest rate statement (Wed, 06:00 MT time (04:00 GMT)) – The Reserve Bank of New Zealand may lower the interest rate to 0.75% on Wednesday form the current 1% if they decide that the economy needs monetary stimulus. If the rate stays at 1%, the NZD shall rise.

                      American Consumer Price Index (Wed, 18:30 MT time (16:30 GMT)) – The analysts anticipate the coming consumer price marks to be at 0.3% for the monthly CPI and 0.2% for the core monthly CPI. If the indicators are higher than the forecast, the USD shall gain strength.

                      Australian jobs data (Thu, 05:30 MT time (03:30 GMT)) – The forecasted employment change is 16.2K against the previous 14.7K, while the unemployment is expected to stay unchanged at 5.2% in Australia. If the readings are better than the forecast, the AUD will rise.

                      The quarterly European GDP growth rate (Thu, 12:00 MT time (10:00 GMT)) – The quarterly GDP growth rate is expected to stay unchanged at 0.2%. The price of the euro shall not be affected unless the release is different from the forecast.

                      Hot news:

                      During the weekend the US president Trump made another worrying statement advising that China may be interested in the trade deal more than he is; on Tuesday he shall give another speech to clarify the US-China trade war positioning

                      Comment


                      • Market updates on November 12

                        12.11.2019

                        Key events ahead

                        British Claimant Count Change – 11:30 MT time (09:30 GMT)

                        European ZEW Economic Sentiment Index – 12:00 MT time (10:00 GMT)

                        On Monday, GBPUSD rose to the resistance of 1.2873. Today, it has continued rising after a short correction. On the H4 chart of GBP/USD, the bulls may locate their additional resistance levels at 1.2873 and 1.2890 for the upward direction. The downward trend will have the possible support levels at 1.2806, 1.2790 and 1.2770.GBPUSDH4 November 12.png

                        The euro has also started the day rising against the USD. On the H1 chart of EUR/USD, the resistance level of 1.1038 is its closest mark for the bullish scenario. Otherwise, the support levels may be placed at 1.1027, 1.1025 and 1.1016.

                        The Australian dollar shows a very similar scenario in relation to the USD today. On the H1 chart of AUD/USD, after slumping down to 0.6837 it has risen back to the level of 0.6853. If it keeps the same upward direction, the bulls may locate their resistance levels in the range of 0.6857 – 0.6861. Otherwise, for the market reversal scenario, the support levels may be placed at 0.6848, 0.6845 and 0.6837.

                        Comment


                        • Oil market updates on November 14

                          More at: http://bit.ly/2Xhqb8H

                          14.11.2019

                          Today, the oil prices may move on the release of crude oil inventories at 18:00 MT time. The analysts forecast the number of barrels held in the inventories of the American commercial firms to advance by 1.5 million.

                          If the actual number of barrels is higher than the expectations, the WTI and Brent prices will go down;

                          On the other hand, lower-than-expected figures will push the prices for crude higher.

                          What is the situation in the market right now?

                          The price for Brent is having a bullish session. On H4, it has been testing the highs above the resistance at $63.03. If the price is supported by the lower-than-expected release, the break of this level will happen. After that, bulls will focus on reaching the next target at $63.40. The next resistance will lie at $63.90. On the other hand, a higher-than-expected number of barrels will pull the price for Brent below the $62.53 level. The next support will be placed at $62.

                          As for WTI, its price has been testing the resistance at $57.7 on H4 since the start of the trading day. The breakout of this level will help bulls to push the price for crude upwards to the $58.08 level. As far as this level will be reached, bulls will try to reach the next one at $58.6. From the downside, it is recommended to keep an eye on the $57.3 level. The great increase in the number of barrels may help bears to overcome that level and focus on reaching the support at $56.8 (50-period SMA).

                          Comment


                          • Market updates on November 15

                            Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2Kqsv7X

                            15.11.2019

                            US retail sales and core retail sales – 15:30 MT time (12:30 GMT)

                            During the Asian trading session, the White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow announced the positive progress in phase one trade deal with China. It increased the risk-on sentiment in the market.

                            USD/JPY took advantage of the news and has risen higher. The pair has tested the 108.6 level on H4. If bulls manage to break this level, the next resistance will lie at 108.7. After that, reaching the 108.78 level (100-period SMA) will be possible. From the downside, bears will be looking for a breakout of the 108.51 level. If it happens, the chance of falling towards the 108.42 level will increase. The next support will lie at 108.28.

                            The price of gold has bounced from the 50-period SMA on H4 and moved lower. Since the beginning of the trading session, it has slid towards the support at $1,461. If this level is broken, the next support will be placed at $1,457.6. From the upside, if gold’s price rises above the $1,466, the next key level will lie at $1,471 (50-period SMA).

                            EUR/USD is awaiting the release of indicators of US headline and core retail sales. According to the forecasts, the former indicator will advance by 0.1%, while the latter is expected to increase by 0.3%. If the actual figures outperform the forecasts, the euro will fall below the 1.1015 level on H4 and will likely test the support at 1.1003. On the other hand, if the figures disappoint, the breakout of the current resistance at 1.1025 will occur and may drive EUR/USD up to the 1.1034 level.

                            Comment


                            • The United States will release the headline and core retail sales at 15:30 MT on November 15.

                              Check at: http://bit.ly/2NQKab1

                              The indicators represent the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. The difference of the core indicator from the headline one is that the former excludes automobile sales due to their high volatility. Last time both of the indicators came out lower than the forecasts. While advance retail sales dropped by 0.3% (vs. the anticipated increase by 0.3%), the retail sales without autos fell by 0.1% (vs. +0.2% expected). The disappointing figures pulled the USD lower. Let’s see how the release affects the USD this time.

                              • If the indicators are greater than the forecasts, the USD will rise;

                              • If the indicators are weaker than the forecasts, the USD will fall

                              Comment


                              • 5 important events this week will bring us!

                                More at: http://bit.ly/35dP0oH

                                18.11.2019

                                Monetary policy meeting minutes by the RBA (Tue, 02:30 MT time (00:30 GMT)) – If the RBA is positive concerning the current economic outlook, the AUD will rise.

                                Canadian CPI growth (Wed, 15:30 MT time (13:30 GMT)) – According to the forecasts, the inflation rate will advance by 1.9%. Higher-than-expected figures will boost the Canadian dollar.

                                FOMC meeting minutes (Wed, 21:00 MT time (19:00 GMT)) – If the release contains more hints concerning the future easing, the USD will fall.

                                ECB monetary policy meeting accounts (Thu, 14:30 MT time (12:30 GMT)) – If the European central bank is hawkish in its report, the EUR will be supported.

                                Canadian core retail sales (Fri, 15:30 MT time (13:30 GMT)) – Analysts expect the indicator to remain at the same level. If the actual level is higher, the Canadian dollar will go up.

                                Hot news:

                                The British pound has risen on the news that the Brexit party has stood down from the 43 additional seats in the Parliament. Previously, it rejected to contest the seats which belong to the Conservative party.

                                According to the comments by the ECB vice president Luis de Guindos, the recession in the Eurozone seems to be an unlikely event.

                                The American and Chinese trade negotiators held constructive discussions on Saturday to reach the phase one trade deal. It resulted in the risk-on sentiment in the markets.



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