Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Forex News and market analysis FBS

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Main currency pairs: closing the week

    Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2Ne6T0i

    10.01.2020

    Friday rolls in, closing the first market week of the year 2020. Below, we briefly go through the opportunities this day offers for some key currency pairs in view of important events of the previous and coming days.
    USD: all set for the NFP

    Of course, markets wait for the Non-Farm Payrolls (out at 15:30 MT time). The overall situation for the US dollar looks positive for various reasons. First, the fears of the conflict escalation with Iran have subsided, losing the focus of the audience and letting the risk appetite get back from safe-havens. Second, the US-China deal is on the way, with the Chinese officials planned to visit Washington DC next week and finally sign the deal on January 15. Third, the recent economic indicators released by the US authorities give a good impression, not to mention surprisingly strong data on the previous NFP.

    Hence, let’s see if USD manages to break some of the local barriers after the obstacles get removed from its way up. Against the JPY, 109.70 has been the resistance level capping the bullish moods since May 2019. Last, two months show that the currency pair has been testing this line again and again. Will today be the breakthrough?

    Against the EUR, the price is testing the support of the 200-period Moving Average. Also, that is where the bottom line of the December uptrend is located – EUR/USD went into consolidation there at 1.1106. Will this trend be broken as well, leading to the reversal upwards? Let’s see what the NFP brings.

    EUR/GBP: dotting the “I’s” for Brexit

    The future is finally decided. Boris Johnson’s EU Withdrawal Agreement has been approved in the House of Commons and passed to the House of Lords. 31Jan confirming the end of the relationship is now merely a formality. Now, all eyes will be on the course of negotiations between the UK and the EU. The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said it will be almost impossible to have all the points negotiated until the end of 2020, so the fears of a bad Brexit are amassing. On the other side, the Eurozone’s own economic indicators are not that good, although there are signing of the European economy picking up the pace. That’s why we see EUR/GBP struggling to decide where to go, right in the crossing area of the Moving Averages at the level of 0.8500. Which direction it will choose? So far, the table is tilted towards the EUR more.

    AUD: lands on fire, currency rising

    Against all odds, the AUD is rising. While the bushfires keep damaging the Australian economy and the rumors of the RBA going dovish in February are voiced out among the observers, the AUD/NZD grows to 1.038 to test the 50-period Moving Average. If that resistance is broken and the currency manages to climb above 1.0400 to challenge the 100-MA, it will move into the upper part of the downtrend prevailing during the last month and possibly challenging it later on.


    Comment


    • Important events this week will bring us

      More at: http://bit.ly/2TjJbUb

      13.01.2020

      American and British consumer prices

      The market awaits the US consumer prices on Tuesday at 15:30 MT time (12:30 GMT) and the British CPI on Wednesday at 11:30 MT time (9:30 GMT). No major surprises are expected by analysts: while the American headline and core CPIs are anticipated to advance by 0.2%, the British consumer price index may reach the same level as during the previous release, showing the increase by 1.5%. As usual, higher-than-expected figures will bring positive momentum to the USD.
      In the end, it needs a sign

      Donald Trump plans to meet with the Chinese side on Wednesday, where he is going to sign the “phase one trade deal”. Despite the optimism on the agreement, the details of the document have still not been announced and reportedly remain under review. We expect the comments by both sides and the final details of the deal. As it may fail to meet the market’s expectations, Wednesday’s trade will largely depend on the risk sentiment.

      The risk may also be affected by the US-Iran tensions after the latter admitted it shot down a Ukrainian airliner by mistake.
      Retail sales of the US

      The week will be highlighted by yet another important indicators for the United States, which are retail sales and core retail sales. The indicators will be published on Thursday at 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT). Analysts are optimistic in their forecasts; both headline and core indicators are anticipated to rise by 0.5% and 0.3% accordingly.
      Earning reports by the US banks

      This will be the first earnings week of 2020 with Citigroup and JPMorgan releasing their financial results on Tuesday and Alcoa with the Bank of America on Wednesday. While JP Morgan is forecast to release the revenue of $27.96 billion and EPS equaled 2.37, experts suggest Citigroup posting EPS of 1.86 and the revenue of $73.9 billion. At the same time, the earnings of Alcoa are expected to decline, with a revenue of $2.48 billion and EPS of -0.21.
      Exotic currencies are under the spotlight

      The Bank of Turkey and the South African Reserve banks will hold their meetings on Thursday. The decisions by the regulators may affect the TRY and the ZAR.

      Comment


      • Important events this week will bring us

        More at: http://bit.ly/2G3u35v

        20.01.2020

        How does the year begin for Australian consumers?

        Westpac Consumer Sentiment will be announced at 01:30 MT time on Wednesday (Tuesday, 23:30 GMT). This indicator shows the overall economic activity status in the country through polling more than 1000 households and obtaining their feedback on past and future economic conditions. The December release was at -1.9; if this week’s indicator comes higher than forecast, it will mean an improved economic outlook.

        Jobs data will be released at 02:30 MT time (00:30 GMT) on Thursday. Almost 40K jobs added referring to November were much more than what the market expected, for December analysts look for 11.2K new jobs. If the actual figure outperforms the forecast again, the AUD will be supported.
        BOC takes the word

        The Canadian interest rate will be announced at 17:00 MT (15:00 GMT) on Wednesday. No change is expected to the current level of 1.75%, so the main focus will be at the BOC’s press conference following at 18:15 MT (16:15 GMT). If there are dovish notes, CAD may be under pressure down.
        How long quantitative easing will continue?

        ECB’s press conference will be at 15:30 MT time (13:30 GMT) on Thursday, after the interest rate announcement at 14:45 MT time (12:45 GMT) the same day. Also, a separate speech by the ECB president Christine Lagarde is scheduled at 11:30 MT time (09:30 GMT) on Friday. As there is no change foreseen for the rate itself, the audience will wait for the hints in the speech of the ECB President, particularly to outline the quantitative easing that the policymakers have been pressing on. Continuation of this line drives the EUR down.
        The Brexit year begins for the British economy

        The British PMI will be released at 11:30 MT time (09:30 GMT) on Friday. While the ECB President is unveiling the economic outlook for the Eurozone, the GBP will receive something to move on. The forecast referring to the month of December is slightly higher than the figures of the previous release for both the manufacturing and service sectors. If the results outperform what the market expects on Friday, the GBP will receive a boost.
        Lastly

        Using these events, you may trade AUD/USD and USD/CAD, referring to the Australian and Canadian indicators, and EUR/GBP within the context of the announcements from the UK and European economic authorities. However, other pairs with the mentioned currencies will be affected as well. That's why we welcome you to follow the news with FBS and see particular trade ideas offered daily.

        Comment


        • Retail data may shake the loonie

          More at: http://bit.ly/2vdnoDy

          22.01.2020

          Canada will publish the headline and core retail sales on January 24 at 15:30 MT time.

          Retail indicators show the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. The main difference between the headline and core indicators lies in the fact, that the latter excludes automobile sales due to their volatility. Last time both indicators came out much lower than the projections. While the forecasts were quite optimistic, the actual figures showed a decline. The retail sales fell by 1.2%, and core retail sales - by 0.5%. As a result, the Canadian dollar moved down. Will we see a different outcome this time?

          • If the indicators are greater than the forecast, the loonie will rise;

          • If the indicators are lower than the forecasts, the loonie will fall.

          Check the economic calendar

          Comment


          • The sell-off across the markets

            More at: http://bit.ly/36r3bHn

            27.01.2020

            The week has started with a cautious note, as the news surrounding coronavirus combined with the attack of the US embassy in Baghdad increased the risk-off sentiment in the markets.
            Coronavirus is spreading

            What is a coronavirus and how it affects the markets? You can read more about it in our recent article. Long story short, it is a deadly pneumonia-like disease that started in the food markets of middle China. China has already reported more than 2,700 cases of coronavirus. The country even extended the Lunar New year holiday after the reports of 80 confirmed deaths. And while the doctors are looking for a cure, the spread of the virus continues.
            The attack of the US embassy

            Five rockets crashed near the US embassy in Iraq amid the wide protests in the country. The demonstrators have been demanding the removal of the ruling elite and an end to foreign interference in Iraqi politics.
            The market reaction

            The risk-weighted assets reacted immediately to the news. Of course, the initial reaction has been visible on the USD/CNH chart. The pair gapped up towards the crossover of the 200- and 50- day SMA at 6.9795. At the moment, bulls are targeting the next key resistance at 7.014. The key level on the downside will be placed at 6.9525. The next one is 6.92.

            Against the USD, the Australian dollar gapped down towards the 0.6770 level on the daily chart. Strong bearish pressure may pull the pair lower to the 0.6750 level. The upside momentum will be limited by the 0.6820 and 0.6855 levels.

            USD/JPY has been showing a mixed performance. After the opening below the 50-day SMA and the 109 level, bulls have been trying to take back their positions. On the other hand, bears are still trying to pull the pair as low as the 200-day SMA at 108.47. The next key support will lie at 108.25.

            Gold has retested the highs of early January around the $1,585 level. Increased risk-off sentiment may push it higher towards $1,600. On the downside, there is support at $1,538.


            Oil prices opened much weaker, too. The price of Brent fell to the lows of last October, looking forward the support at $58.2. The next key level for bears will lie at $57.3. Bulls need to push the price above the $60 level to get back their positions.

            WTI inched lower, too. Right now the price is moving down towards $51.85. The next support in focus will be placed at $51. The key level for bulls is placed at $54.

            Comment


            • PFIZER: will it repeat the jump?

              Check the charts: http://bit.ly/38Kk7tN

              28.01.2020

              What?

              The famous pharma giant Pfizer is going to release its earnings report on January 28 at 17:00 MT time. According to analysts, the company will post a revenue of $12.61 billion and EPS of $0.57.
              Why is it important?

              The current release will show whether the merger of Pfizer’s off-patent drug unit Upjohn with drug-producing company Mylan brings any positive results. While some analysts anticipate the deal to be powerful enough for a company to stay strong in the challenging pharmaceutical market, others are being more skeptical. They expect to see any significant effect only in 2023. Of course, the optimistic comments on this topic during the conference call on January 28 will be appreciated by bulls.
              The previous release

              During the previous release, the revenue reached $12.68 billion, while EPS came out at $0.75. The figures were greater than analysts’ expectations. Also, the company raised its 2019 forecasts. According to it, the revenue will reach $51.2 to $52.2 billion (vs. $50.5 to $52.5 previously) and EPS $2.94 to $3 (previously $2.76 to $2.86).

              As we can see in the picture below, the price of Pfizer stock jumped on the release from $37.27 to $38 and managed to rise as high as $38.75 within a day.

              If the actual figures outperform the forecasts this time, we may see a similar scenario.
              Key levels for Pfizer stock

              On the daily chart, the price of Pfizer is trying to stick above the 200-day SMA. The positive earnings report will push the stock above the $40.86 level towards the next resistance at $41.8. The downward momentum will be limited by the $38.67 level.

              What should you do now?

              Get ready for the release at 17:00 MT time and follow these easy steps

              Open the MT5 account in your FBS personal area
              Make a deposit
              Download MT5

              Comment

              Working...
              X