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  • Risk-off is back. All eyes on the US data.

    https://bit.ly/31dDKKl

    25.06.2020

    The market sentiment deteriorated as the USA and some other countries are suffering from the new virus resurgence. Investors worry that the economic reopening may be delayed.
    Fundamental factors

    Australia has recorded its largest peak in COVID-19 cases since April. The US states such as Florida and California exceeded daily highs.
    Investors are concerned that governments may impose strict restrictions and lockdowns again. That may lead to devastating results for most businesses. Stocks dropped on that worries.
    Margie Patel, portfolio manager at Wells Fargo Asset Management, said that stocks just need to take a breath and then they may continue rallying.
    The USA revealed new tariffs on export goods from the Eurozone. The EU considers to ban the entry for Americans. The US-EU tensions began to heat up.
    The IMF lowered its guidelines for the global economic recovery and predict deeper downturn and slower rebound.


    Technical tips
    S&P 500

    S&P 500 dropped dramatically, but the 200-day moving average stopped it at the 3,020 level. If it manages to cross this line, it will open doors towards the key psychological mark at 3,000. Follow the release of the US GDP and unemployment claims at 15:30 MT time. It will be the strong catalyst for the further falling, if the data comes worse than expected. Otherwise, if the market catches the risk-on stimulus after the report, stocks may soar. In this case, look for resistance levels at 3,110 and 3,225.

    XAU/USD

    Gold is headed to new highs. Market participants found it the most attractive safe-haven asset amid the current uncertainty. The US dollar gains too, but gold still prevails. If it crosses the resistance at 1,775, it will surge to 1,800. Support levels are 1,717 and 1,700. Again, the US data will have a huge impact on gold. Don’t miss out.

    AUD/USD

    AUD/USD has tumbled significantly as Australia suffers from the largest high in coronavirus cases. Look for the break below the 0.6830 level, as the pair may fall even deeper to the next support at 0.6800. Resistance lines are the 50-day moving average at 0.6890 and the high of June 23 at 0.6920.

    Upcoming event:

    The US GDP and unemployment claims at 15:30 MT time will make the market really volatile. Follow the report!

    Check the economic calendar




    Comment


    • Facebook crashed

      https://bit.ly/2ZhI2h6

      29.06.2020

      Zuckerberg has lost 7 billion dollars as companies pull adds from Facebook. Catch the moment!

      What happened?

      The social media giant is facing the advertising boycott. Corporations such as Unilever, Coca-Cola and Starbucks cancelled their ad contracts with Facebook. They organized the #StopHateForProfit campaign to protest against the Facebook’s failure to stop the spread of hate. The Facebook’s co-founder Mark Zuckerberg announced on Friday that they expanded their policy to prevent any hate and violence on the platform. However, people don’t believe that Facebook is effectively managing hate speech and disinformation. Do you remember that Twitter banned posts by President Donald Trump for its violence? Facebook hasn’t done anything with similar posts. People criticized the company for its inaction.
      What does it mean for a trader?

      It’s a great opportunity to make profit! The Facebook stock price will fall, while companies continue boycotting. It may meet the support at $210. If it breaks It down, it can plummet deeper to $204 and then to the 200-day moving average at $198. Follow news further!

      Comment


      • Will the NFP push the USD again?

        https://bit.ly/2ZoGlhP

        30.06.2020

        Non-Farm Payrolls data will be released on Thursday at 15:30 MT time.

        Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD

        The last release of the NFP was far greater than what one could have thought. 2.5mln jobs were created against a loss of 8mln expected by the market. Fundamentally, it is hilarious. For a trader, though, it is a conundrum. As the last release was unexpectedly high, the question is: will the American labor market be able to hold on to this tremendous resilience in the coming release? Because if it doesn’t, we are in for another blow to the USD. The preliminary data shows, though, that the workforce is being added into the market, so there is a high probability that the NFP will bring positive figures beating the expectations.

        If the data is better-than-thought, the USD will rise.
        Otherwise, it will fall.

        Check the economic calendar

        Comment


        • What drives the market on July 1?

          https://bit.ly/31vDIO5

          01.07.2020

          The market sentiment is mixed. Let’s look at most interesting movements on the market today.
          Fundamental factors

          The Fed’s chairman Jerome Powell claimed yesterday that the US economy entered the new phase of economic recovery sooner than expected. Encouraging US data proved that the USA is moving forward to the V-shaped recovery. US consumer confidence showed yesterday the largest increase since late 2011. However, there are still challenges ahead as the labor market is still well-below pre-crisis levels. More than 20 million Americans remain unemployed. "All levels of government" should impose stimulus measures "for as long as needed" to support the economy rebound, Powell claimed. Stocks gained.

          The Canadian GDP came better than the forecast. The indicator shrank by 11.6%, while analysts anticipated the 12.5% contraction. CAD rose.

          Virus infection are still rising in some US states. Alarming data indicated that coronavirus cases in 14 states in the USA more than doubled in June.

          Investors worry about a new national security law for Hong Kong. China imposed strict punishment measures up to life in prison for the sedition and collusion with foreign forces. Sino-American tensions escalated. Gold climbed up.

          Technical tips

          Gold

          XAU/USD is heading towards the key psychological mark at $1,800. Just few inches left. Support levels are at $1,760 and $1,720.


          S&P 500

          The stock index rose on the optimistic speech of Jerome Powell. The price crossed the resistance at 3,075 and took a breath after that. Most analysts anticipate that the stock rally will continue further. Anyway, if risk-off factors outweigh, look for support levels at the 200-day moving average at 3,025 and then at 3,000.


          USD/CAD

          The encouraging Canadian GDP pushed USD/CAD down. The pair met the support at the 100-day moving average at 1.3565. The risk-on market sentiment may push it even lower. If it breaks it down, it will clear the way towards the next support at 1.3495. Resistant levels are at 1.3605 and 1.3685.

          Upcoming events:

          ADP non-farm payrolls will be released at 15:15 MT time. If the data turns out better than expected, the market sentiment will improve. Follow the report!

          Check the economic calendar

          Comment


          • How to trade on July 2?

            https://bit.ly/31vDIO5

            02.07.2020

            Fundamental factors

            The market sentiment improved after Pfizer and BioNtech released positive results of the vaccine experiment. Tests proved that the vaccine is safe, and patients produce antibodies.
            The ADP report came worse than analysts expected yesterday. The report revealed that US firms added 2.37 million jobs, while the forecast was 2.85. The US government poured a lot of stimulus measures to support the economy, but the fresh coronavirus outbreak in the USA has slowed down the recovery.
            Crude oil inventories bet all estimates yesterday evening. The oil supply contracted by 7.2 million barrels. The forecast was only the 900 000 drop.

            Watch our daily forex trading plan!

            Technical tips

            Stocks

            Nasdaq reached all-time highs at 10 300 after that encouraging news. Meanwhile, S&P 500 has risen for the fourth day. If the price crosses the resistance at 3 110, it will open doors towards the next resistance at 3 225. Support levels are at the 200-moving average at 3 025 and at the key psychological mark at 3 000.

            EUR/USD

            Let’s move on to EUR/USD. The pair rose significantly yesterday after the worse-than-expected ADP report. Most analysts have bullish prospects for the euro. The first reason is the weakening dollar. Its global dominance is waning. The second reason, unlike Europe, the USA is suffering from the resurgence in new infections and, therefore, has grimmer economic outlook. Reuters strategists set a target price for the EUR at 1.15 in 12 months.

            EUR/USD has just crossed the strong resistance at 1.126, but stopped below the 100-period moving average and the top trendline. If it breaks it through, it will surge further to the high of June 29 at 1.129 and then to the next resistance at 1.133. Support levels are at the 1.1250 and 1.1205. The NFP report today at 15:30 MT time will add fresh volatility.

            Gold

            The gold price is moving down. It will meet the support level at the recent low of June 24 at $1 760.If it breaks it down, it may fall even deeper to the 50-day moving average at $1 727. It’s likely to be a short correction rather than a reverse. Gold may take a breath for a while and then surge again. Follow the NFP report. If the data comes worse than the forecast, gold can rise.

            Oil

            Finally, let’s talk about oil. The encouraging oil report gave stimulus for prices to increase. The WTI oil price is slightly above $40 dollars a barrel now. Analysts believe it will stay near this level for some time. Support levels are at $38 and $36.

            Upcoming events:

            The NFP report will be released at 15:30 MT time. Stay tuned!

            Check the economic calendar

            Comment

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