Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Forex News and market analysis FBS

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Market updates on November 29

    Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2XXBiny

    29.11.2019

    Key events ahead:

    Canadian GDP growth rate – 15:30 MT time

    The Asian trading session did not see any significant movers today after the Thanksgiving holiday in the US. We will be awaiting updates on the US-China trade talks. USD/JPY has been consolidating below the 109.55 level on H4. In case of positive news, this level will be broken and the next resistance will be placed at 109.69. If the risk sentiment is off, the pair will fall as far as the 109.28 level will be reached. After the breakout, bears will pay attention to the 109.08 level. RSI oscillator is in the overbought zone. If it leaves this zone, we may open a short position.

    The Canadian dollar is awaiting the release of Canada’s GDP growth. According to the forecasts, it will advance by 0.1%. At the moment of writing, USD/CAD has been trading right above the 50-period SMA. The price formed the symmetric triangle pattern on the chart. The pair has already tested the 1.3288 resistance level. In case of a breakout, the next resistance will lie at 1.3298. If the indicator is higher than the forecast, the pair will break the lower border of the symmetrical triangle and test the 1.3269 level. If it is broken, the next support in bear’s target will lie at 1.3254.

    CAD/JPY has been trying to overcome the 82.45 resistance level on H4. Bulls need to break this level to continue the upward movement towards the 82.52 and 82.57 levels. Key support levels are placed at 82.28 and 82.14.

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Market updates on November 28

    More at: http://bit.ly/2QWqwfI

    28.11.2019

    Key events ahead:

    European Business Confidence – 12:00 MT time (10:00 GMT)

    German Yearly Preliminary Inflation Rate – 15:00 MT time (13:00 GMT)

    On the H1 chart of EURUSD, the euro has been in a sideways movement against the US dollar until recently. The RSI and Stochastic Indicators entered the overbought zones when the price reached 1.1014. Once the RSI crosses the 70% upside-down and the Stochastic’s fast line crosses the slow one the same manner, it may be a good moment to open shorts. The supports may be located at 1.1004 and 1.0994 for this scenario. The resistance level may be located at 1.1023.EURUSDH1.png

    On the H1 chart of GBPUSD, the price reached a 1.2947 high, forming the local resistance level last night. Then it bounced down to 1.2922 and is now in a sideways movement. The MACD is indicating that the market is in the overbought state. That means the price is very likely to decline soon. For this scenario, the support levels may be located at 1.2922, 1.2872 and 1.2833. The bulls may have an additional resistance level of 1.2963.GBPUSDH1.png

    On the H4 chart of EURGBP, the MACD is indicating the oversold state of the market. At the same time, the Stochastic Indicator’s fast line has already crossed the slow one bottom-up within the oversold zone. Altogether, these are the signs that the price is likely to move upwards soon. In this case, the resistance levels may be located at 0.8572 and 0.8602. The support may be placed at 0.8495.

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    5 important events this week will bring us

    More at: http://bit.ly/35tSe7E

    25.11.2019

    American Quarterly GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est, Consumer Spending data, Durable Goods Orders (Wed, 15:30 MT time (13:30 GMT)) – U. S. consumer spending data is due Wednesday, along with GDP, jobless claims and durable goods. The forecast for the quarterly GDP growth rate is 1.9%. Higher-than-expected index values will boost the US dollar.

    European Business Confidence index (Thu, 12:00 MT time (10:00 GMT)) – The previous level of the indicator was -0.19, while the expectation for the coming one is -0.24. The euro will gain strength if the actual indicator is higher than the forecast.

    British GfK Consumer Confidence (Fri, 02:01 MT time (00:01 GMT)) – The forecast for the British Consumer Confidence index is -14. If the actual one outperforms that, the British Pound will be supported.

    Japanese Consumer Confidence (Fri, 07:00 MT time (05:00 GMT)) – The Japanese Consumer Confidence index is expected to show a slightly lower 35.4 value against the previous 36.2. If the indicator outperforms the prognosis, the Japanese yen will rise.

    Canadian Monthly GDP Growth Rate (Fri, 15:30 MT time (13:30 GMT)) – The analysts expect the monthly GDP growth rate in Canada to show a slightly better 0.2% against the previous 0.1%. If the actual level is higher than the forecast, the Canadian dollar will go up.

    Hot news:

    Boris Johnson presented his election manifesto to the British Parliament on Sunday. He advised it is a “radical agenda” for the United Kingdom, and promised to present the Brexit agreement to the Parliament until December 25.

    China is strengthening intellectual property rights protection, as was revealed on Sunday. The equity markets in Asia have already shown a rise partly due to this advancement within the US-China trade talks.



    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Market updates on November 22

    More at: http://bit.ly/2pLf1N2

    22.11.2019

    Key events ahead

    British CIPS Manufacturing PMI Flash – 11:30 MT time (09:30 GMT)

    Canadian Monthly Retails Sales – 15:30 MT time (13:30 GMT)

    On the H1 chart of EURUSD, the price dropped to the level of 1.1056 yesterday evening, then went up into a correction. If the next Parabolic indicator’s mark completes as the third in the row in the upward direction that will reconfirm the bullish trend. In this case, the bulls may have 1.1081 and 1.1092 as the resistance levels. The bears may locate the support levels at 1.1062 and 1.1056.EURUSDH1.png

    On the H1 chart of USDCAD, the Stochastic Indicator shows the fast line crossing the slow line upside down within the oversold zone. That means that the price will be soon under pressure down. If the downward movement breaks through the local support levels of 1.3271 and 1.3263, it will have the next target at 1.3202. The resistance levels may be located at 1.3288 and 1.3324.USDCADH1.png

    On the H1 chart of GBPUSD, the price shows a sideways movement above the support level of 1.2893. If the British economic data to be released today is positive, the GBP may gain strength and aim at the resistance levels of 1.2932 and 1.2964. Otherwise, an additional support level may be placed at 1.2873.

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Market updates on November 21

    More at: http://bit.ly/35pKqnk

    21.11.2019

    Key events ahead:

    ECB monetary policy meeting accounts – 14:30 MT time (12:30 GMT)

    Flash consumer confidence for the Eurozone – 17:00 MT time (15:00 GMT)

    EUR/USD has been targeting the 1.1090 level on H4. If this level is broken, the next resistance will be placed at 1.1103. From the downside, if the pair falls below the 100-period SMA at 1.1072, the next support level will lie at 1.1063. After that the pair will fall as far as the 1.1056 level will be reached. RSI oscillator is about to enter the overbought zone. If it leaves this zone, it may provide us a selling opportunity.

    USD/JPY is having a volatile session. During the Asian trading session, the pair has fallen towards the 108.28 level but managed to recover towards the 108.6 level. If this level is broken, the next resistance will lie at 108.7. From the downside, if the Japanese yen strengthens, the pair will slide towards the 108.46 level. The next support will be placed at 108.36.

    USD/CNH has been declining towards the ascending trend line on H4. If the risk sentiment in the market increases, the pair will fall to the 7.0314 level. The next support will be placed at 7.0230. From the upside, if the pair retests the 7.0436 level, the next resistance will lie at 7.0525.

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Market updates on November 20

    Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2KHMzmv

    20.11.2019

    Key events ahead:

    Chinese Loan Prime Rate 1Y – 03:30 MT time (01:30 GMT)

    Canadian Inflation Rate YoY – 15:30 MT time (13:30 GMT)

    American FOMC Minutes – 21:00 MT time (19:00)

    The US dollar has been rising against the Chinese yuan since Monday and seems to continue the same direction today. On the H1 chart of USDCNH, the 50-period Moving Average crossed the 100-period bottom-up yesterday, and the Parabolic SAR confirms the current uptrend. The resistance levels of 7.0360 and 7.0512 will be checking this scenario. However, the Chinese officials are reported to have expressed today once again their discontent with the US meddling into the Hong-Kong affairs. This should create additional volatility and pressure down on the USDCNH in the context of endless obstacles in reaching a trade truce between the US and China. For the bearish direction, the support levels of 7.0320, 7.0230 and 7.0150 may be placed.

    The CAD started the day with the correction course. On the H1 chart of CADJPY, it has dropped to the support level of 81.64, which was touched last Thursday. After that, the price showed a slight upswing. At the same time, the RSI crossed the 30% level bottom-up. This may be a good signal of the bullish takeover. For the upward direction, the resistance levels may be placed at 81.83 and the range of 82.40-82.50. The downtrend scenario may have 81.64 and 81.50 as the support levels.

    Against the Swiss franc, the US dollar has started weakening on Tuesday. On the H1 chart of USDCHF, the price touched the 0.9918 high, marking the local resistance level, and has been dropping since then. The bears need to watch the MACD and Awesome Oscillator crossing the zero line. Once it is done, the USD will likely aim at the support levels of 0.9895 and 0.9877.

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    5 important events this week will bring us!

    More at: http://bit.ly/35dP0oH

    18.11.2019

    Monetary policy meeting minutes by the RBA (Tue, 02:30 MT time (00:30 GMT)) – If the RBA is positive concerning the current economic outlook, the AUD will rise.

    Canadian CPI growth (Wed, 15:30 MT time (13:30 GMT)) – According to the forecasts, the inflation rate will advance by 1.9%. Higher-than-expected figures will boost the Canadian dollar.

    FOMC meeting minutes (Wed, 21:00 MT time (19:00 GMT)) – If the release contains more hints concerning the future easing, the USD will fall.

    ECB monetary policy meeting accounts (Thu, 14:30 MT time (12:30 GMT)) – If the European central bank is hawkish in its report, the EUR will be supported.

    Canadian core retail sales (Fri, 15:30 MT time (13:30 GMT)) – Analysts expect the indicator to remain at the same level. If the actual level is higher, the Canadian dollar will go up.

    Hot news:

    The British pound has risen on the news that the Brexit party has stood down from the 43 additional seats in the Parliament. Previously, it rejected to contest the seats which belong to the Conservative party.

    According to the comments by the ECB vice president Luis de Guindos, the recession in the Eurozone seems to be an unlikely event.

    The American and Chinese trade negotiators held constructive discussions on Saturday to reach the phase one trade deal. It resulted in the risk-on sentiment in the markets.



    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    The United States will release the headline and core retail sales at 15:30 MT on November 15.

    Check at: http://bit.ly/2NQKab1

    The indicators represent the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. The difference of the core indicator from the headline one is that the former excludes automobile sales due to their high volatility. Last time both of the indicators came out lower than the forecasts. While advance retail sales dropped by 0.3% (vs. the anticipated increase by 0.3%), the retail sales without autos fell by 0.1% (vs. +0.2% expected). The disappointing figures pulled the USD lower. Let’s see how the release affects the USD this time.

    • If the indicators are greater than the forecasts, the USD will rise;

    • If the indicators are weaker than the forecasts, the USD will fall

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Market updates on November 15

    Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2Kqsv7X

    15.11.2019

    US retail sales and core retail sales – 15:30 MT time (12:30 GMT)

    During the Asian trading session, the White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow announced the positive progress in phase one trade deal with China. It increased the risk-on sentiment in the market.

    USD/JPY took advantage of the news and has risen higher. The pair has tested the 108.6 level on H4. If bulls manage to break this level, the next resistance will lie at 108.7. After that, reaching the 108.78 level (100-period SMA) will be possible. From the downside, bears will be looking for a breakout of the 108.51 level. If it happens, the chance of falling towards the 108.42 level will increase. The next support will lie at 108.28.

    The price of gold has bounced from the 50-period SMA on H4 and moved lower. Since the beginning of the trading session, it has slid towards the support at $1,461. If this level is broken, the next support will be placed at $1,457.6. From the upside, if gold’s price rises above the $1,466, the next key level will lie at $1,471 (50-period SMA).

    EUR/USD is awaiting the release of indicators of US headline and core retail sales. According to the forecasts, the former indicator will advance by 0.1%, while the latter is expected to increase by 0.3%. If the actual figures outperform the forecasts, the euro will fall below the 1.1015 level on H4 and will likely test the support at 1.1003. On the other hand, if the figures disappoint, the breakout of the current resistance at 1.1025 will occur and may drive EUR/USD up to the 1.1034 level.

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Oil market updates on November 14

    More at: http://bit.ly/2Xhqb8H

    14.11.2019

    Today, the oil prices may move on the release of crude oil inventories at 18:00 MT time. The analysts forecast the number of barrels held in the inventories of the American commercial firms to advance by 1.5 million.

    If the actual number of barrels is higher than the expectations, the WTI and Brent prices will go down;

    On the other hand, lower-than-expected figures will push the prices for crude higher.

    What is the situation in the market right now?

    The price for Brent is having a bullish session. On H4, it has been testing the highs above the resistance at $63.03. If the price is supported by the lower-than-expected release, the break of this level will happen. After that, bulls will focus on reaching the next target at $63.40. The next resistance will lie at $63.90. On the other hand, a higher-than-expected number of barrels will pull the price for Brent below the $62.53 level. The next support will be placed at $62.

    As for WTI, its price has been testing the resistance at $57.7 on H4 since the start of the trading day. The breakout of this level will help bulls to push the price for crude upwards to the $58.08 level. As far as this level will be reached, bulls will try to reach the next one at $58.6. From the downside, it is recommended to keep an eye on the $57.3 level. The great increase in the number of barrels may help bears to overcome that level and focus on reaching the support at $56.8 (50-period SMA).

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Market updates on November 12

    12.11.2019

    Key events ahead

    British Claimant Count Change – 11:30 MT time (09:30 GMT)

    European ZEW Economic Sentiment Index – 12:00 MT time (10:00 GMT)

    On Monday, GBPUSD rose to the resistance of 1.2873. Today, it has continued rising after a short correction. On the H4 chart of GBP/USD, the bulls may locate their additional resistance levels at 1.2873 and 1.2890 for the upward direction. The downward trend will have the possible support levels at 1.2806, 1.2790 and 1.2770.GBPUSDH4 November 12.png

    The euro has also started the day rising against the USD. On the H1 chart of EUR/USD, the resistance level of 1.1038 is its closest mark for the bullish scenario. Otherwise, the support levels may be placed at 1.1027, 1.1025 and 1.1016.

    The Australian dollar shows a very similar scenario in relation to the USD today. On the H1 chart of AUD/USD, after slumping down to 0.6837 it has risen back to the level of 0.6853. If it keeps the same upward direction, the bulls may locate their resistance levels in the range of 0.6857 – 0.6861. Otherwise, for the market reversal scenario, the support levels may be placed at 0.6848, 0.6845 and 0.6837.

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    5 important events this week will bring us

    More at: http://bit.ly/2O335OY

    11.11.2019

    British preliminary yearly GDP growth rate (Mon, 11:30 MT time (09:30 GMT)) – according to forecasts, the yearly GDP growth rate will be at 1.1% against the higher 1.3% previous mark. The GBP price shall not change much unless the release is higher than the expectation.

    New Zealand’s interest rate statement (Wed, 06:00 MT time (04:00 GMT)) – The Reserve Bank of New Zealand may lower the interest rate to 0.75% on Wednesday form the current 1% if they decide that the economy needs monetary stimulus. If the rate stays at 1%, the NZD shall rise.

    American Consumer Price Index (Wed, 18:30 MT time (16:30 GMT)) – The analysts anticipate the coming consumer price marks to be at 0.3% for the monthly CPI and 0.2% for the core monthly CPI. If the indicators are higher than the forecast, the USD shall gain strength.

    Australian jobs data (Thu, 05:30 MT time (03:30 GMT)) – The forecasted employment change is 16.2K against the previous 14.7K, while the unemployment is expected to stay unchanged at 5.2% in Australia. If the readings are better than the forecast, the AUD will rise.

    The quarterly European GDP growth rate (Thu, 12:00 MT time (10:00 GMT)) – The quarterly GDP growth rate is expected to stay unchanged at 0.2%. The price of the euro shall not be affected unless the release is different from the forecast.

    Hot news:

    During the weekend the US president Trump made another worrying statement advising that China may be interested in the trade deal more than he is; on Tuesday he shall give another speech to clarify the US-China trade war positioning

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    5 important events this week will bring us

    More at: http://bit.ly/2WLTNL5

    04.11.2019

    RBA rate statement (Tue, 5:30 MT (3:30 GMT)) – According to forecasts, the interest rate will remain steady at 0.75%. We will keep an eye on the monetary policy statement, where the regulator may throw some hints on the possible changes to the monetary policy.

    Canada’s trade balance (Tue, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT)) – If the actual level of indicator is higher than the forecasts, the CAD will go up.

    New Zealand’s employment change and unemployment rate (Tue, 23:45 MT (21:45 GMT)) – Analysts anticipate the employment change to increase by 0.2%. At the same time, the unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 4.1%. Higher-than-expected figures of employment change and lower level of the unemployment rate will be NZD-positive.

    BOE monetary policy summary (Thu, 14:00 MT (12:00 GMT)) – The interest rate is expected to stay at 0.75%. The possible move for the British pound may come with the release of the monetary policy statement. Any hawkish comments concerning the bank’s policy amid the Brexit mess will support the British pound.

    Canada’s employment change and unemployment rate (Fri, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT)) – If the actual level of employment change is higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the Canadian dollar will get positive momentum.

    Hot news:

    During the ASEAN summit this weekend, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross expressed optimism that the US would reach a “phase one” trade deal with China this month and said licenses would be coming soon for American companies to sell components to Huawei Technologies Co. The news boosted the risk-on sentiment in the markets.

    Christine Lagarde will make her first speech as a president of the European Central Bank this evening at 20:30 MT (18:30 GMT) time.



    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Market updates: NFP edition

    More at: http://bit.ly/2PMx6oz

    01.11.2019


    Key events ahead

    Average hourly earnings – 14:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

    Non-farm employment change – 14:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

    Unemployment rate – 14:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

    The main focus for today will be on the American jobs data at 14:30 MT. According to the forecasts, the level of non-farm payrolls will advance by 89 thousand. At the same time, average hourly earnings will show an increase of 0.3% and the unemployment rate will rise to 3.6%. If the actual levels of NFP and average hourly earnings are higher, and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the USD will strengthen. Let’s consider the most important pairs ahead of the event.

    Bulls of EUR/USD have not overcome the 1.1166 resistance level on H4 after the Fed rate cut on Wednesday. If the level is broken right after the release, reaching the next resistance at 1.1180 may be possible. The further upside momentum will be limited by the 1.1194 level. On the other hand, if the actual figures come out optimistic for the USD, EUR/USD will reverse towards 1.1131. After the breakout, bears need to focus on the 1.1121 level. The break of that level will be placed at 1.1106.

    USD/JPY has stuck below the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart after yesterday’s plunge. The USD needs to be boosted by the positive NFP figures to break the current resistance at 108.53 and move upwards to the 108.15, 108.24 and 108.41 levels. From the downside, the breakout of the 107.93 level will open the way for bears towards the 107.8 level. The next support will lie at 107.65. RSI oscillator is oversold, that is why the continuation of the downside momentum may be expected.

    An upside momentum for the price of gold is the result of the mixed news concerning US-China trade truce and the weak USD. Currently, the price of the yellow metal is overbought on H4 according to RSI and testing the $1,514 resistance level. If the USD weakens on the job data, the breakout of that resistance will be inevitable. That kind of scenario may lead to the retest of the $1,518 level (high of October 25th). The next key level will be situated at $1,524. On the contrary, the first support will be placed at $1,509.2. The next one will lie at $1,504.

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Market updates on October 31

    Check the charts: http://bit.ly/36pejFT

    31.10.2019

    European Quarterly GDP Growth Rate – 12:00 MT (10:00 GMT)

    American Monthly Personal Income and Personal Spending Index – 14:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

    The US Fed announced the interest rate cut to 1.75% on October 30. EUR/USD reacted by rising. On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the day has started with the price inching into the resistance range of 1.1167 – 1.1177 and possibly aiming at another 3-months resistance level of 1.1217. The support levels of 1.1101 and 1.1076 remain valid unless a strong bearish movement appears on the chart.

    While the Bank of Canada released the unchanged interest rate of 1.75% against the lowered rate of US Fed on October 30, the USD/CAD performed a sharp rise during the announcement. That was due to the negative tone the officials expressed in regards to the likely contractions within the investments, exports, employment growth and global economy slowdown pushing the Bank of Canada to implement monetary ease in the coming future. On the H1 chart of USD/CAD, the price bounced back from the newly formed local resistance level of 1.3180, testing the support level of 1.3152. If it is broken, we will have a range of 1.3120 – 1.3131, 1.3078 and 1.3049 as the support levels. Otherwise, the additional resistance level may be placed at 1.3208.

    On the H4 chart of USD/JPY, the quote has dropped to the support level of 108.65. That was due to the unchanged Japanese interest rate (set at -0.1% as per October 31 release) against the lowered US Fed rate, which led to relative depreciation of the US dollar. However, the likelihood of the monetary ease in the future on behalf of the Bank of Japan keeps the Japanese yen dropping slowly, viewing the resistance levels of 108.99 and 109.254. The support level of 108.55 and the range of 108.34 – 108.41 remains valid.

    Leave a comment:

Working...
X