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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    The new stimulus for the euro? Mario Draghi sent EUR/USD lower on the dovish
    hints.

    Check at: http://bit.ly/2KZ0Ps3

    18.06.2019

    During today’s speech, the ECB President Mario Draghi made remarks on using a rate cut as a primary tool for an economic stimulus.
    On the H4, EUR/USD fell to the support at 1.1179 during the European trading hours. At the moment, the pair is correcting to the upside. The first resistance is placed at 1.1211. If the positive momentum is short-lived, the pair will break the 1.1179 level and try to test the support at 1.1165.

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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Heads up to the FOMC statement

    Read at: http://bit.ly/2WKFee5

    17.06.2019

    The Federal Open Market Committee will make its statement and announce the official rate on June 19, at 21:00 MT time.

    Despite the demands by US President Donald Trump to cut the interest rate, no changes to it are expected. Now, policymakers keep the interest rate at 2.5%. However, we may find out the hints on the possibility of a rate cut later this year. Wednesday’s statement will show how the US-China trade war and recent weaker economic data affect the Fed decisions.

    • If the Fed is hawkish, the USD will go up;

    • If the Fed is dovish, the USD will go down.

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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    MARKET UPDATES

    More at: http://bit.ly/2KgPAvk

    13.06.2019

    The Australian dollar weakened because of the bigger-than-expected unemployment rate figure. On H4, AUD/USD has been targeting the first support at 0.69. A close below this level will provoke a further decline to 0.6870 with a test of 0.6887. RSI and Stochastic Oscillators are in the oversold area, the rise of the pair will be confirmed as soon as RSI crosses the 30 level bottom up and Stochastic oscillator crosses the signal line. In the case of the rebound, the important resistance is located at 0.6933.

    The Swiss franc rose on the Swiss National Bank statement. Although, the central bank kept the interest rate on hold and didn’t provide any hints on a soon increase, comments about the possible weakness of the euro and the USD supported the Swiss currency. As a result, USD/CHF fell. On H4, the pair reached the support at 0.9921 (50-period MA) but rebounded. The first resistance is located at 0.9956, a break above this level will signal a continuation of the upward movement. However, the resistance is strong and we may see a re-test of 0.9921. A break below this level will lift risks of the decline to 0.9888.

    Brent has risen significantly after news about oil tankers being attacked in the Gulf of Oman. Up to now, the oil benchmark has been moving to the first resistance at 63.73 with a test of 63.



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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Risk management

    http://bit.ly/2ZqjxNl

    Risk management is the key element of Forex trading. It’s better to understand this simple fact rather sooner than later and put a lot of efforts into mastering this science. By definition, risk management is the identification, analysis, assessment, control, and avoidance, minimization, or elimination of unacceptable risks. The risk that exists for Forex traders is simple to understand: it’s the ever-present risk of a bad trade that is closed with a loss.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------



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  • MartinWilliams
    replied

    Market updates on June 11

    More at: http://bit.ly/2Zh28q6

    11.06.2019

    On Tuesday, the improved market sentiment supported risky assets such as stocks, emerging-market currencies, and crude oil.

    Oil benchmarks have been trying to recover on the improved market sentiment. Talks that OPEC and its allies would continue its program of oil output cuts supported the oil market. However, the effect was limited. WTI moved up but with small gains. Up to now, the oil benchmark has been trading near 53.60. The resistance is located at 54.48. However, the downward pressure is high. If the benchmark is not able to break above 54.48. We will see a decline to 51.70. Brent rose less than WTI. The benchmark reached a high at 62.86. However, bears were stronger and Brent moved down. The support is located at 60.60.


    The Chinese yuan succeeds to appreciate against the USD. On Friday, USD/CNH reached the highest level of the year at 6.9613. However, the improved sentiment encouraged Chinese currency. Up to now, the pair has been trading near 6.9242 moving to the support at 6.9165. A close below this level will lead to the further appreciation of the CNH. The next level to touch is 6.90. In the case of risk aversion, USD/CNH will turn around and will move towards 6.9470 targeting the top near 6.9614.


    The Mexican peso keeps gaining strength against the US dollar. USD/MXN has been moving down for the 3 days in a row. If bears manage to pull the pair below 50-day simple MA at 19.08, we will see a further decline to 19.02. If the pair rebounds, we may anticipate a rise towards 19.24. The next resistance is at 19.3120.



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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Another chance for the USD

    More at: http://bit.ly/2KG9JdQ

    10.06.2019

    The level of retail sales and core retail sales will be out on June 14, at 15:30 MT time.

    The indicator of retail sales represents the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. Its core level excludes the sales of autos due to their high volatility. Last time both of the indicators came out lower than the forecasts. The level of retail sales declined to 0.2% (vs. the anticipated increase to 0.2%), while its core level advanced only by 0.1% (vs. the forecast of 0.7%). If this time the situation changes, the USD will rise.

    • If the actual levels of indicators are higher than the expectations, the USD will rise;

    • If the actual levels of indicators are lower than the expectations, the USD will fall.

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    The euro has risen above the 100-day MA on the comments by Mario Draghi

    More at: http://bit.ly/31dVhj1

    06.06.2019

    During today's press conference, the ECB president said that the data was "somewhat" better than the expectations in the first quarter. The euro jumped higher on his comments, targeting the next resistance at 1.1321. If his further comments are more dovish, EUR/USD will fall back below the 1.1253 level to the support at 1.1214.

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    The volatility for the USD is expected

    Read at: http://bit.ly/2WpGq6d

    05.06.2019

    The level of non-farm payrolls, also known as non-farm employment change or NFP will be out on June 7, at 15:30 MT time.

    The indicator represents the change in the number of employed people during the previous month without farmers. Traders pay huge attention to it, as it makes the US dollar highly volatile after the release. Also, we recommend you not to underestimate the unemployment rate and the level of average hourly earnings. These indicators are released at the same time as the non-farm payrolls and they tend to affect the USD as well. Last time, the NFP outperformed the forecasts. It advanced by 263 thousand jobs (vs. 181 thousand expected). However, bulls could not hold their positions due to the lower-than-expected average hourly earnings (0.2% vs. 0.3%). This time the employment data may lead to a different outcome.

    • If NFP is higher than the expectations, the USD will rise;

    • If NFP is lower than the expectations, the USD will fall.

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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Grandfather of crypto falls below the $8,000 level after consolidation

    More at: http://bit.ly/2Wfqpec

    04.06.2019

    Bears finally took over the cryptomarket and pulled the price for BTC down. At the moment, it is testing the support at $7,970. If this level is broken, bears will face with the next key level at $7,660. If bulls take over, they will need to push the price for Bitcoin above the $8,500 level to the next resistance at $8,800.

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Will the Reserve bank of Australia weaken the AUD?

    More at: http://bit.ly/2wxv3d5

    03.06.2019

    The Reserve bank of Australia will make its statement and announce the official rate on June 4, at 7:30 MT time.

    Analysts anticipate the RBA to cut its interest rate from 1.5% to 1.25%. The chances of a rate cut are high as the Australian economy keeps weakening. The slowdown of the GDP growth, falling house prices and the rise of unemployment are among the key reasons behind the anticipated decision by the RBA. Despite the high chances of the rate cut, the central bank may keep its interest rate unchanged. If it happens, the Australian dollar may get positive momentum.

    • If the RBA keeps its interest rate unchanged, the Australian dollar will rise;

    • If the RBA cut its interest rate, the Australian dollar will fall.

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    The USD/MXN has risen by more than 5,900 pips on tariff threats

    More at: http://bit.ly/2ww55qq

    31.05.2019

    President Donald Trump announced the 5% tariffs on Mexican goods until the country stops immigrants from entering the US. The tariffs will be applied on June 10. The tariffs could rise to 25% on October 1.

    The USD/MXN has risen above the resistance at 19.67. The next resistance lies at 19.97. On the flipside, bears need to pull the pair below the 19.3686, 19.2618 and 19.1417 pivot levels to take back their strength. The support lies at 19.0349.

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Trading strategies for the short-term timeframes!

    Some traders prefer to trade on the longer-term timeframes. It helps them to check the positions no more than once a day and have more time for making a final decision. However, if you prefer to be a more aggressive trader and earn money within a day, you will probably try trading on the H1 and H4 charts. In this article, we will explain the most popular strategies for this kind of trading.

    http://bit.ly/2QAwhhd
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------


    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    The important release for China may shake the markets

    Look at: http://bit.ly/2JKKDe6

    29.05.2019

    China will release the level of its manufacturing PMI on May 31, at 4:00 MT time. This is a leading indicator of economic health. As China is one of the biggest economies in the world, its data tends to affect the global markets. As a result, higher figures of the indicator affect positively not only the Chinese yuan but also the risk sentiment in the market. Riskier environment increases the demand on the risk-weighted currencies, such as the AUD, the NZD, and the emerging market currencies. On the flipside, the lower actual level of manufacturing PMI for China pulls the Chinese currency down and hurts the risk sentiment in the market. The risk-off sentiment makes the risky assets go down as well.

    • If the actual level of manufacturing PMI is higher than the forecasts, the risk sentiment will be on;

    • If the actual level of manufacturing PMI is lower than the forecasts, the risk sentiment will be off.

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Will the Bank of Canada support the CAD?

    http://bit.ly/2YRUnqo

    27.05.2019

    The Bank of Canada will publish its monetary policy statement and make the rate announcement on May 29, at 17:00 MT.

    The central bank won’t make changes to the current interest rate, which is set at 1.75%. However, the BOC governor Stephen Poloz may throw some hints on the possible changes to the current monetary policy. Last time, Mr. Poloz was more positive about the economic outlook of the country, than during the previous meetings. His tone supported the loonie. If he provides any hawkish hints this time, the CAD will rise.

    • If the BOC is hawkish, the CAD will go up;

    • If the CAD is dovish, the CAD will go down.

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    5 important events this week will bring us!

    Read at: http://bit.ly/2wncp7Z

    27.05.2019

    Rate statement by the Bank of Canada (Wed, 17:00 MT (14:00 GMT)) – The changes to the current interest rate are not expected, but the central bank may throw some hints on the possible changes of its monetary policy in the future.

    Australian building approvals and private capital expenditure (Thu, 4:30 MT (1:30 GMT)) – According to the forecasts, the number of building approvals will increase by 0.1%. As for the level of private capital expenditure, it is expected to advance by 0.5%. Higher figures will support the Australian dollar.

    US Preliminary GDP (Thu, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – The GDP growth of the US is forecast to rise by 3.1%. If the actual level is higher, the USD will get stronger.

    Chinese Manufacturing PMI (Fri, 4:00 MT (1:00 GMT)) – The indicator will affect not only the Chinese yuan but also the risk sentiment in the market, due to the escalation of the US-China trade tensions. According to the forecasts, it will decline to 49.9 points. Higher figures will push the CNH and the risk-weighted currencies higher.

    Canadian GDP (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 MT)) – If the actual level of indicator is higher than the forecast, the CAD will rise.

    Hot news:

    During the weekend, the US president Donald Trump met with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe for trade talks. Today they are going to discuss the key issues. According to Trump’s comments on twitter, the sides have made significant progress in trade negotiations, but the final deal is expected to be reached after July's elections in Japan.

    The trade tension between the US and China have intensified. Up to now, we anticipate extra 25% tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese exports to the US and on $60 billion of US exports to China at the end of this week. At the same time, Donald Trump said that the US was not ready to make a trade deal with China.

    After the European elections last week, the EU leaders will decide who will be the next president of the European Central Bank after Mario Draghi. During the EU summit dinner on May 28, they are going to discuss the top political appointments.

    Theresa May resigned from her post as a Prime Minister on Friday. The leaders who may replace Theresa May, including Boris Jonson and Dominic Raab, say they want the EU to reopen the negotiations on the UK withdrawal agreement.



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