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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    USD: fighting through

    https://bit.ly/2VgwvOr

    16.04.2020

    Positive dynamic

    There is definitely a positive dynamic in the labor market based on the figures announced by the labor authorities in the US this Thursday.

    5.2mln people filing for unemployment benefits is certainly better than 6.6mln and 6.8mln as it was it the previous two weeks respectively. However, the figure was still slightly above the expected 5.1mln.

    Reaction

    How did the USD react? Relatively indifferently across the board, although a certain weakness is visible with USD/JPY as in the chart below.

    Generally, the USD has stopped its advanced against other currencies leading the main currency pairs into a temporary consolidation to digest the incoming data. In the larger scheme, it is unlikely, however, that the investors will move away from demanding more US dollars to hedge against the virus damage.


    For the USD/JPY specifically, it trades currenly at 107.46 testing the support of 100-MA at 107.38. In fact, the currency pair performance is now contained between the latter and teh resistance of 200-MA at 107.68. Crossing either of these will serve as a confirmation of further direction for this currency pair.

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Market drivers on April 15

    https://bit.ly/2KaGEWr

    15.04.2020

    Let’s see what’s moving market today amid the coronavirus pandemic. Some countries are recovering such as China, but most of them are still under pressure.
    Donald Trump sanctions WHO for poor performance

    US President Donald Trump has stopped financing the World Health Organization. The main reason for that is the WHO hadn’t restricted travels from China in time, that undermined the US. Also, Donald Trump voiced his discontent that the WHO became very China-centric. However, House Democrats said that Donald Trump violated the law as he had no legal authority to halt payments to the WHO.
    US dollar may weaken

    On the one hand, the Fed’s monetary easing and credit backstops help to mitigate the coronavirus negative impact on the economy. On the other hand, these measures put a heavy pressure on the US dollar. Later today we will see the report of retail sales that will show the economic damage of lockdowns. This report should somehow influence on the US dollar. Also, tomorrow on April 16 unemployment claims will be released. Some economists think that the jobless rate will reach 20%.
    Good news for Pound sterling

    There is a positive scenario for the British pound as the negative impact of Brexit has been eliminated by the coronavirus. According to Standard Bank, EUR/GBP will fall to 0.8 soon. The pound price couldn’t touch this level since 2016. As the deadline for a trade deal is postponed, the risk for the currency is pushing back too.
    Oil price plummeted again

    If you remember, OPEC+ after long negotiations had finally decided to cut the oil production. However, it didn’t help to push the oil price up. What we see today is the WTI oil price fell below $20 per barrel. That’s happened because the oil demand had dropped enormously. The International Energy Agency said that the worst is yet to come.

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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Tesla stock: at full speed ahead. Why?

    https://bit.ly/2RGP7EP

    10:34 14.04.2020

    We saw a huge surge of Tesla stock on April 13. It rebounded to its mid-March position. What were the reasons?
    Oppenheimer’s analysis

    The first reason is a bullish forecast from the reliable US investment firm - Oppenheimer. After their analysis had been released traders ran to buy Tesla shares, thereby pushing the price up.

    Technical analyst Ari Wald noted Tesla stock as a “Triple Play”, what basically means that the stock will beat not only expectations on revenue and earnings, but also on earnings guidance for future quarters. He said that as long as the stock holds above the $390 support level, the stock is "bullish." His colleague, fundamental analyst, Colin Rush kept an outperform rating for the stock. According to his forecasts, the price will be at $684 in 12 months.
    Ramp in Giga Shanghai’s production

    Another reason is an encouraging development in China, where auto sales are starting to the pick up again. Despite the shutdowns of plants because of COVID-19, the company's factory in Shanghai shows a massive expansion. According to a recent press release, Tesla has started producing two more Model 3 variants at its Shanghai plant. That means Tesla can have a lower price without import duties. This would boost the company’s profit margin.
    What’s next?

    Now we are waiting for Tesla’s first-quarter report on April 29. It would definitely affect Tesla’s stock.
    Short technical analysis

    Let’s look at the Tesla’s chart below. The price broke through all moving averages. Now it’s on the 651 mark, a bit above 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The resistant line is on 717. The support line is on 579.

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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    April 13: starting the week

    More at: https://bit.ly/2K0cTYf

    13.04.2020

    Last week’s trading was passing in hopes for the positive result of the OPEC+ negotiation. The result is there now, and we will quickly scan it for the possible outcomes in the next paragraph. Apart from that, the British Prime minister’s treatment in the ICU was another big factor pressing on the Forex market. Lastly, European infection dynamics and the economic response preparations were the third large element that shaped the trade. What happened to each “story” and what do we have to start with week with? We will see them one by one.
    Oil: good, but not enough

    Let’s not be pessimistic: the deal is there. 9.7mln barrels per day will be the total supply quantity cut starting from May 1. The market applauded not only to OPEC+ but to Donald Trump personally. A hater of the cartel just a while ago, he is the one who finally convinced Mexico, Russia, and Saudi Arabia to get the deal done. Or so it seems. Anyway, that’s another ace for him to claim in preparing for the November election campaign. How does the oil price look now?

    Not really impressive. The hopes for a “definitive victory” which were pushing WTI above $25 are largely erased: strategically, it is now closer to $20 than anywhere else. Why? Mostly, because this 10% output cut comes too late and is too little. The global demand now is roughly 30% lower than the pre-virus level at which the market was stabilized. Cutting 10% leaves the remaining 20% “in the air”. In addition to that, the date which makes the OPEC+ agreement effective is May 1 – that is three weeks away. During that time, the market will be in the free-for-all state. Meaning, everyone pumps as much as they want. That’s why the almost 10mln-barrel-per-day cut appears more like a reality-forced recognition gesture rather than a proactive forward-looking market rectification step.
    Boris Johnson: the winner is out

    This was the Sunday news headline about Boris Johnson:

    Source: Bloomberg

    It’s hard to deny that such a dramatic comment makes the victory of the British Prime Minister over the virus even more shining, emblematic, and inspiring. At least, to his British fellow citizens. It should have supported the British pound as well. Has it?

    Indeed, the GBP rose to test 1.2540 against the USD. It broke the four-week resistance of 1.2450, converting it into the current support level, and left the Moving Averages below. Moving further upwards, however, will require something more fundamental rather than one famous individual’s (even if that’s a very important individual) victory over the disease. Does the UK economy have that? Time will show.
    Europe: trench war

    The infections picture in mainland Europe seems to be slowly improving. Spain, Italy, and France are reporting decreasing dynamics of the virus spread. The lockdowns are planned to stay in power for several weeks more, subject to authorities’ confirmation, to ensure that the virus spread is sealed. That pushes the biological threat to the second place and pulls the economic agenda into the front row of the agenda. Recently, a financial aid package was formed by the EU finance ministers, but the problem was for the country leaders to approve them. It remains a problem gives the political and economic discords between the states, and this week, we will say how this card is played. That should be the main reason why EUR/USD is now kept in a “waiting” mode.

    Currently traded at 1.0932, it goes into consolidation between the resistance of 1.0970 and support of 1.0920. At the same time, the secondary layer of the movement channel is presented by the Moving Averages: 50-MA and 100-MA support the currency pair at around 1.0850, and 200-MA is capping the upside at 1.1030. Very likely, EUR/USD will be staying pretty silent until some decisive fundamental factor comes to the stage.

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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    EUR: $590bln rescue package

    https://bit.ly/3c99VwF

    10.04.2020

    What’s happening?

    A $590bln financial emergency package was prepared to aid the European economy by EU finance ministers. It includes a 100bln-euro joint employment insurance fund, 200bln euros of liquidity to be facilitated to commercial organizations, and 240bln euros to support emergency spending programs of the European states.
    Great news then…

    Sure it is. However, formally, it is now only left to the EU country leaders to approve it. As you understand, that “only” is an abyss to leap over, given the current political and economic disagreements between the European states.
    Why so?

    Primarily, because the virus, although biologically indiscriminative to societies, hit Southern Europe disproportionately harder than the North. Specifically, Spain, Italy, and France suffered most losses, while countries like the Netherlands, Germany or Sweden received much less damage.

    On top of that, there are clear inter-state political and economic differences between the European countries, which have been there long before the virus came, but the hardened situation over the pandemic just made those differences more severe.

    And finally, there are internal political struggles and fragmentation resulting in the fact that each opposing party or politician is trying to use the virus countermeasures to boost their own recognition and agenda.

    Altogether, these factors lead to heavy doubt about the real level of the EU functionality and even integrity as an economic and political structure. Needless to say, if the European leaders manage to fail on this step, the EUR will lose much of its value. Otherwise, should they overcome their discords and approve the financial aid, EUR will be boosted in the long-term.
    So what do I do?

    You watch the levels. Currently, EUR/USD trades between the support of 1.0920 and the resistance of 1.0970. Activity on behalf of the US Fed and Trump’s positive “incursions” in the media with regards to the oil talks between OPEC+ countries give support to the USD, however, so far, EUR has been fighting that off. If next week brings some positive news on the progress over the mentioned financial plan, the resistance of 1.0970 should be crossed, and 1.1030 will be the next possible target in line with 200-MA. Otherwise, 50-MA and 100-MA will be there to greet the disappointed euro and walk it to the support of 1.0855. So watch the news and act accordingly.



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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    What moves the market on April 9?

    Check more at: https://bit.ly/39UAhBc

    09.04.2020

    Here are the most important topics that will determine the dynamics of currencies, commodities and stocks on Thursday, April 9. Notice that volatility is expected to rise during the day providing opportunities for active traders.

    Coronavirus. According to the latest data from Europe, Italy and Spain both recorded the most new cases in days, while the UK announced a record number of coronavirus deaths. Prime Minister Boris Johnson remains in intensive care, although his condition has improved. Be ready for the extension of the lockdown period. Notice, however, that both forecasts from Italian and Spanish governments and experts said that the peak of the virus could come within days. These expectations will likely support the market sentiment and, consequently, riskier assets such as the AUD, the NZD, exotic currencies, and stocks.

    Dismal economic forecasts. Analysts compete with each other in negativity about the futures of the global economy. The World Trade Organization said on Wednesday that the pandemic could cause a bigger damage of international trade flows than at any point in the postwar era. Wall Street banks went further and provided a number: according to them, the coronavirus will reduce the world's GDP growth by more than $5 trillion over the next two years. This number exceeds the annual output of Japan.

    US jobless claims. Today we’ll get another update on the indicator that has recently reached unprecedented levels. Forecasts are that there will be 5 million new claims after a total of nearly 10 million claims over the past two weeks. Don’t expect the USD to take a hit after the release: everyone is ready for such a number and the greenback remains the safe-haven of choice.

    European failure. There’s no relief for the EUR as European Union finance ministers failed in all-night talks to agree on more economic support for the region’s economies. The negotiations will resume at 18:00 GMT on Thursday. If something is announced late during the day, it will be able to cause big moves in EUR/USD as the amount of liquidity will be lower ahead of the US bank holiday on Friday. So far, the pair has been limited by the 100-period MA at 1.0880 (H4), while support is at 1.0835 and 1.0805.

    OPEC+ meeting. The pandemic won’t keep the world’s top oil producers from discussing the output cut: a video conference is scheduled for 15.00 MT time. There have been positive signals from Russia regarding the deal. Brent is consolidating in the $33.00 area. The deal will make the price jump above $45, while the failure will trigger a decline towards $23.50 and $21.65.

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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Covid-19 is jeopardizing Apple’s plans

    Check more at: https://bit.ly/3e2IQgx

    08.04.2020


    There are some doubts about Apple sustainability amid coronavirus. Who will buy and who will produce new IPhones?
    Coronavirus impact on Apple

    At first, problems started in Asia. Chinese factories couldn’t supply iPhones because of the lockdown with strict quarantine measures for thousands of laborers. However, the steps taken by the Chinese authorities helped to stop the spread of the disease. Now China is resuming production.

    Then, the virus hit the USA and Europe causing shops to close and people to stay at home. That, in turn, hugely reduced incomes. Obviously, that would diminish demand for new Apple products. This is a crucial factor for the future financial health of the corporation. We can see now how Apple’s plans are getting ruined. The unveiling the iPhone 9/SE2 has already been delayed. Even the much-anticipated iPhone 12 seems to be released far later than planned. There are all reasons to expect that these problems will affect Apple stock price preventing it from the upside.
    Technical analysis



    Apple stock had been declining since February 19, then it reversed on March 23 and reached the 271.5 mark breaking through 23.6% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels. Yesterday it went down and now it’s on 262.51. The nearest support levels are at 255.3 or 38.2% Fibonacci level and at 248.00 where the 50-day Moving Average almost crosses the upward trendline.
    Apple’s future

    The quarterly revenue, January to March, combined to a 12% fall from the previous year. Wall street analysts continue to make their financial forecasts worse and target prices lower for Apple.

    The manufacturing problems are over now, so the success of the company depends on the purchasing power of global comsumers. The latter will likely take a serious blow in the upcoming months. In the long-term Apple may recover its prior revenue. We should learn more from Apple’s earnings release and during the call with analysts and investors on April 30.

    Remember that by trading stock CDF traders are able to open sell trades on Apple stock!

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Emergency in Japan as coronavirus spreads

    https://bit.ly/39Qd6Yv

    07.04.2020

    Instruments to trade: USD/JPY, CAD/JPY, AUD/JPY

    Coronavirus pushes to recession countries one by one. This time it gets to Japan, known as one of the world’s hardest working nation.
    Soft lockdown in Japan

    As coronavirus cases surged in the country, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe declared the state of emergency in the largest population centers that make up almost 50% of GDP, according to Bloomberg.

    In fact, the lockdown isn’t as strict in Japan as in other countries today, it’s just a request to stay at home and close businesses, not an order. So, perhaps the downturn of economic activity won’t be so extreme. However, according to Japan economists, people will take it seriously this time.
    Government measures

    Moreover, Japan Prime Minister will rescue the country’s economy by almost 1 trillion US dollars stimulus package equal to 20% of Japan's economic output. It’s more than double the amount Japan spent following the crisis in 2008.
    Forecast

    Many economists believe that Japan has already fallen into recession because of export declines, supply-chain disruptions and travel bans. There are fears that economy is going to shrink close to 20% in a lockdown.

    As we could notice, if coronavirus cases rise, the stock market volatility rises too. As a result, Japanese yen may lose its safe-heaven status.

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Can you win with the AUD?

    More at: https://bit.ly/39LJxqZ

    06.04.2020

    RBA Rate Statement is released on Tuesday at 07:30 MT time.

    Instruments to trade: EUR/AUD, AUD/USD, GBP/AUD, AUD/JPY

    Australian monetary policymakers already slashed the interest rate twice in March. By reducing it to the current level of 0.25%, they tried to enhance the domestic economic environment and give it the maximum possibility to recover from the coronavirus. Given the fact that the Chinese economy – the main trade partner of Australia – is already gaining back its powers, Australia should have an improved economic outlook by the time the new rate is released. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) explained that there will be no intention to raise back the rate until inflation gets to 2-3% channel and full employment is reached.

    If the rate is held steady at the current level, the AUD will rise.
    Otherwise, it will fall.

    Check the economic calendar

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Trading bootcamp for free

    There's going to be a virtual trading bootcamp starting from tomorrow from this broker (FBS). May be a good opportunity to learn or practice

    https://www.facebook.com/financefreedomsuccess/

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Oil industry: Donald Trump’s 2 tweets boost the price

    Check it at: https://bit.ly/3bSV0GJ

    03.04.2020

    Yesterday we saw how WTI oil prices jumped up after Donald Trump’s 2 tweets and reached the 25.30 mark. Today the WTI price went even higher and now it’s 27.32 dollars per barrel. There is definitely an upward trend, breaking through 23.6 Fibonacci level at the 26.85 mark and two lines of Moving Average, 50 and 100, respectively.

    How did the oil war get started?

    The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries met in early March and failed to agree on the amount of oil supply cut amid the coronavirus outbreak. It meant that starting April 1 all the members could pump as much oil as they want. As a result, both unlimited supply and reduced demand (because of lockdowns for many economies around the world) cause oil prices to fall dramatically.
    What is the forecast for the oil market?

    The OPEC+ meeting will be hold on April 6. It’s expected that Russia and Saudi Arabia will negotiate and cut oil production to raise the WTI price to nearly 30 dollars per barrel. The United States has traditionally not been a part of these kinds of meetings, but its new status as the world’s largest oil producer, coupled with its particularly expensive method of extracting oil, means that things could be about to change.

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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    OIL: it started

    More at: https://bit.ly/2wgHLRb

    02.04.2020

    Very short: WTI oil trades above $25 just after $20 in the morning!

    Why? Two things: China's recovering economy is demanding oil, and Donald Trump is calling on Saudi Arabia and Russia to cut supply by 10mln bpd (no surprise Saudi Arabia calls for an emergency OPEC+ meeting now). Be careful and use the situation!

    WTI.png

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Employment data may make the USD volatile

    Check at: https://bit.ly/34dLtHA

    01.04.2020

    The US Non-farm payrolls, also known as NFP, will be published on April 3, at 15:30 MT time.

    Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF

    The indicator represents the change in the number of employed people during the previous month excluding the farming industry. Traders pay huge attention to it, as it makes the US dollar highly volatile after the release. It’s worth mentioning that it comes out at the same time with the level of average hourly earnings and the unemployment rate. In March, the level of non-farm payrolls greatly outperformed the forecasts with 273K (vs. 175K). The average hourly earnings came out in line with expectations of 0.3% and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. Despite such a positive release, the reaction of the USD was limited. The currency was already struggling with coronavirus fears. This time the situation may be completely different after the record-high unemployment claims last week. It increased the risks of this employment data coming out significantly lower than in the previous release. On the other hand, if non-farm employment change and average hourly earnings are higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the USD will rise.

    • If the actual levels of employment change and average hourly earnings are higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the USD will rise;

    • If the actual levels of employment change and average hourly earnings are lower and the unemployment rate is higher than the forecasts, the USD will fall.

    Check the economic calendar

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Is Chinese economy rebounding?

    More at: https://bit.ly/2w2wfsp

    31.03.2020

    It seems that China may have defeated the pandemic as the coronavirus cases has dramatically fallen there. The country has come through the worst and is recovering now.

    Today China Manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index ) was released and it went beyond all expectations as the index was 52.0 with forecast of 44.9 while previous one was 35.7!

    What does it mean for China?

    It’s excellent for the Chinese yuan. Indexes above 50.0 indicate industry expansion as it’s widely assumed, but nowadays it doesn’t mean that Chinese economic activity has fully resumed. The country might avoid a recession but, anyway, will undergo a steep slowdown because of the virus shocks on production and demand. World Bank downgraded China’s 2020 GDP forecast to 2.3% versus 6.1% reported for 2019.

    What does it mean for the world?

    The whole world is suffering from the virus now and this shock will affect greatly almost every country as economies are all intertwined. As Michael Howell from London’s CrossBorder Capital Ltd. said, we should be ready for the turnaround of the lead economy. Who knows, maybe US dollar will cede its place to the Chinese yuan. However, this is an assumption, which may not hold up.

    Technical analysis of USD/CNH

    Let’s look at the USD/CNH chart. It’s now on 7.1060 mark crossing Moving Average of 50. The rebound of the Chinese PMI should strengthen the Chinese yuan. Despite that fact, we see the upward trend and the pennant, so, we can assume that, the graph should surge after it.

    Chinese PMI affects Australian dollar

    Moreover, the Australian dollar bounced back substantially from the Chinese PMI data. Often the Australian dollar acts as a Chinese-economy proxy bet. Moreover, 2.2 trillion dollar US stimulus package improved the global risk sentiment, what was beneficial for riskier currencies, including the aussie. However, worries about the financial downturn from the coronavirus support the US dollar's perceived safe-haven status.

    We see the AUD/USD pair on 0.6090 mark now. It almost reached 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level with 0.62300 mark and then turned back to 50%. It’s the decisive moment, will it go down breaking through 50% Fibonacci retracement level or continue its growth.

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Forex market update on March 30

    More at: https://bit.ly/3dzC8hP

    30.03.2020

    To start the week, let’s throw a quick glance on the market disposition this Monday.
    Forex

    No big movement so far, with USD and JPY being moderately strong against their counterparts. In general, the overall mood of the market is very cautious. Very possibly, currency investors are not yet sure how to interpret Donald Trump’s recent stepping back from his previous call to resume normal activity by Easter. Now, the virus state is extended until April 30 in the US. So the audience is watching for more fundamentals on the USD to factor it into this week’s movements.

    USD/JPY: support 107.00, resistance 108.50

    Gold

    The precious metal has lost its momentum for the upside. Currently, it trades at $1,615 per ounce and is likely to continue the consolidation at this level. As there is no certainty on the market about the nearest perspectives, and the positivity is hardly outweighing the pessimism of what’s going on, so is the gold – hanging there at the ranges of $1,610-1,620.

    XAU/USD: support $1,600, resistance $1,645

    Oil

    The oil market is now in a “prepare for the ride” state. Most media reiterate the truth that Donald Trump lost the opportunity to lead the global oil market anywhere, and even if he wanted it now, it is too late. Saudi Arabia and Russia show no more sympathy to each other nor any more concern by the global consequences of the oil price war. These last days of March will end the current period of output limitations following the December agreements of the OPEC+, now obsolete. Hence, Wednesday will be the first day of the truly free oil market. Probably, that is going to be an example that freedom without limitations is no good for anyone. In the meantime, the oil price is at decade-long bottom levels.

    WTI: support $20, resistance $28



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