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  • MartinWilliams
    started a topic Forex News and market analysis FBS

    Forex News and market analysis FBS

    Forex today: a lot of news

    21.05.2018
    • The greenback is continuing to rise. The US dollar index has almost reached the level of $94. Good news on a trade war’s easing is supporting the upward movement.
    • More information on the trade war’s issue. After 5-day negotiations in Washington, the US and China came to an agreement. Countries agreed to put trade tariffs on hold. Moreover, China plans to "significantly increase purchases" of U.S. goods. However, putting trade tensions on hold does not mean an end of the conflict. Let’s see how long the US and China will be loyal to each other.
    • The euro continues its downward movement. EUR/USD is trading within 1.1680-1.1840. Italy still puts pressure on the single currency. Today, leaders of two coalition parties - the League and the 5 Star Movement - will meet with the Italian president to present their candidate on a position of a prime minister. Whether the president will approve the candidate, the Italian government’s formation will be closer to the end. However, it is not supposed to encourage the single currency a lot, as worries on the future policy of the new government still exist. The euro is anticipated to trade within 1.1680-1.1840.

    • The pound is losing points ahead of the next round of Brexit negotiations. GBP/USD tested the support at 1.34. No important economic data will be released today. So if bears are stronger, the pair will break the support at 1.34. Otherwise, it will trade within 1.34-1.35. On Tuesday, the next round of Brexit talks will take place in Brussels. Last week was full of mixed news. Firstly, there were reports in the media that the UK is ready to stay tied to the customs union beyond 2021. Then, however, British Prime Minister Theresa May said on Thursday that Britain will leave the EU customs union after all. As we can see, the Tuesday’s round is supposed to be interesting. Moreover, inflation report hearings will be out on Tuesday at 12:00 MT time. The pound has chances to recover.

    • The easing of the trade war’s tensions was supposed to support the aussie. However, the Australian currency could not gain momentum. AUD/USD is above the pivot point at 0.75 for the third day. No notable economic data are anticipated either on Monday or on Tuesday. If traders take into consideration trade war’s easing more seriously, the AUD/USD pair has chances to stay above the pivot point. Otherwise, the strong greenback will weigh on the AUD/USD’s movement and the pair will break the support (pivot point) at 0.75.

    • The New Zealand dollar lost a chance to break above the pivot point at 0.69 because of the weak retail sales’ data (actual 0.1% vs forecast 1.0%). NZD/USD plunged below the support at 0.69 and is moving to the next one at 0.6850. No significant economic data are anticipated to be released in next few days, so, only the weaker greenback will be able to pull the NZD/USD pair back to the pivot point at 0.69.

    • The NAFTA deal is under pressure. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that US president Donald Trump aims at a good deal and he doesn’t worry about any deadline. Moreover, it doesn’t mean that Mr. Trump will avoid withdrawal from the deal or any other action if he decides it’s the best option. Negotiations may continue until 2019. The comments appeared after Trump administration missed a deadline for finishing the agreement by May 17.

    The USD/CAD pair was rising since Thursday till the beginning of this week. However, up to now, the Canadian dollar is rising against the US dollar. Maybe news on a possibility of any negotiations supported investors’ confidence in any progress in the deal. USD/CAD is moving to the support at 1.2850. Today is a bank holiday in Canada. As a result, no important data will be released. If bears are able to pull the pair below the support, the next aim is at 1.2825 (50-day MA). Otherwise, the pair will stay above 1.2850.

    That is all for today. Follow markets news with us!








  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Market updates on September 20

    Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2mnpa0k

    20.09.2019

    Key events ahead:

    Speech by the FOMC member Williams – 15:15 MT (12:15 GMT) time

    Canadian core retail sales – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

    Speech by the FOMC member Rosengren – 18:20 MT (15:20 GMT) time

    US-China trade talks

    The British pound was supported today after the interview given by the European president Jean Claude Juncker, where he said that the Brexit deal would happen. The cable spiked above the 1.25 level and has tested the resistance at 1.2557. If this level is broken, the next resistance levels will lie at 1.2577 and 1.2598. In case of any uncertainties, bears will be looking for the fall towards the support levels at 1.2506, 1.2476 and 1.2444. On H4, we can see a bearish divergence with MACD, which may signal about a possible short-term reversal

    USD/CAD is awaiting the release of Canada’s core retail sales. On H4, the pair managed to stick above the 200-period SMA. At the moment of writing, USD/CAD has been moving upwards to the resistance at 1.3277. If the release disappoints the market, this level will be broken. The next resistance will be placed at 1.3289. In case of an alternative scenario, the pair will slide back below the 200-period SMA to the support at 1.3253. The next support will be placed at 1.3246 (100-period SMA).

    EUR/USD is consolidating between the 1.1058 resistance level and the 1.1037 support level on H4. If bulls manage to break their way to the upside, the next resistance levels will lie at 1.1068-1.1074. On the other hand, bears will pay attention to the break of the 1.1037 level. After that, the next support will lie at 1.1014.

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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Market updates on September 19

    Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2kl1fxU

    19.09.2019

    Key events ahead:

    BOE monetary policy summary – 14:00 MT (11:00 GMT) time

    US Philly Fed manufacturing index – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

    The European trading session will be highlighted by the events for the British pound. Traders will pay attention to the BOE meeting at 14:00 MT. This is the last interest rate decision by the bank before the current Brexit deadline set on October 31st. After the inflation rate fell yesterday to the lowest levels since the end of 2016 (below the BOE target rate of 2%), it would be interesting to hear the hints on the possible slash in the interest rates in the upcoming months.

    At the moment, GBP/USD is trading within the triangle pattern on H4. If the GBP is supported, the pair will break the upper border at 1.2503. The next resistance levels will lie at 1.2517, 1.2537 and 1.2555. In case of the pound’s weakness, the cable will slide below the 1.2457 level (lower border of the triangle). If this level is broken, the further support levels will lie at 1.2438 and 1.2422. Strong bearish pressure will pull the pair even lower to the 1.2391 level.

    On H4, EUR/USD has risen back from the lower border of the triangle and has tested its upper border near the 1.1067 level. If the USD is supported by the Philly Fed manufacturing index, the pair will fall to the 100-period SMA towards the support at 1.1035. After that, the next key level will lie at 1.1014. If the USD is weak, the break of the 1.1067 level will be inevitable. The next resistance levels will be placed at 1.1074 and 1.1087. (200-period SMA)

    The Japanese yen strengthened during the Asian trading session. As a result, USD/JPY tested the 50-period SMA. However, the pair has inched higher towards the resistance at 108.24. Further resistance levels lie at 108.37, 108.47 and 108.63. Pay attention to them if the USD is supported. In case of risk-off sentiment, the pair will fall below the 107.91 level. Further support levels in focus will lie at 107.79 and 107.61.


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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Market updates on September 18

    More at: http://bit.ly/2m0xR0E

    18.09.2019

    Key events ahead:

    Canadian CPI – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

    Crude oil inventories – 17:30 MT (14:30 GMT) time

    FOMC rate statement and economic projections – 21:00 MT (18:00 GMT) time

    FOMC press conference – 21:30 MT (18:30 GMT) time

    EUR/USD has fallen after the test of the 1.1074 level. The pair has touched the 100-period SMA at 1.1035. The direction of the pair will depend on the Fed meeting today at 21:00 MT. The market anticipates a rate cut. If it happens, the USD is forecast to fall. In this case, buyers will take advantage of the weaker USD and push the pair higher. The first resistance level lies at 1.1055. If it is broken, pay attention to the next resistance levels at 1.1067 and 1.1074. If the Fed surprises with keeping its rate on hold, the USD will strengthen. Bears will pay attention to the 1.1035 levels. If they manage to break it, the further levels in focus will be placed at 1.1014 and 1.1. Technically, the pair formed a symmetrical triangle.

    The traders of the CAD are awaiting the release of Canadian CPI at 15:30 MT. According to the forecasts, the indicator will slide by 0.2%. Higher-than-expected figures will pull USD/CAD below the 200-period SMA towards the support at 1.3253. The next key support will lie below the 100-period SMA at 1.3238. If the actual figures disappoint the market, the pair will rise above the 1.3271 level. The next resistance for the pair will be placed at 1.3289.

    Oil prices are consolidating ahead of the release of crude oil inventories. According to the forecast, the number of barrels held in inventory by commercial firms will decline by 2.1 million. Bigger fall will push the oil prices higher. The first resistance for WTI’s price will lie at $59.42. After that, pay attention to the $59.85, $60.5 and $60.86 levels. In case of an alternative scenario, the first support will lie at $58.76. After that, it is recommended to pay attention to the $58.4 and $57.72 levels.

    Key levels for Brent’s bulls are placed at $64.6, $65.2 and $65.76. In case of the fall, bears will target support levels at $63.46 and $62.9 (50-period SMA)

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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    5 important events this week will bring us!

    More at: http://bit.ly/2kRdDGj

    16.09.2019

    British CPI (Wed, 11:30 MT (9:30 GMT)) – According to the forecasts, the indicator will advance by 1.8%. If the actual level is higher, the GBP will rise.

    Canadian CPI (Wed, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – As for Canada’s consumer inflation index, we are awaiting it to decline by 0.2%.

    FOMC rate statement (Wed, 21:00 MT (18:00 GMT)) – The Federal Reserve is expected to cut its interest rate from 2.25-2% to 1.75-2%. In addition, it is important to pay attention to the dot plot, where the FOMC representatives are going to express their views on the future rate changes. After that, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell may also provide comments which may shake the USD at 21:30 MT time.

    Australian jobs data (Thu, 4:30 MT (1:30 GMT)) – The employment change is expected to increase by 15.2 thousand jobs, while unemployment change will likely remain at the same level of 5.2%. Higher-than-expected employment change and the lower-than-expected unemployment rate will be positive for the aussie.

    The monetary policy summary by the BOE (Thu, 14:00 MT (11:00 GMT)) – The interest rate is forecast to remain at the same level of 0.75%. It is recommended to pay attention to the tone of the statement. Hawkish comments will push the GBP up.

    Hot topics:

    Crude oil surged after the attack on the Saudi Arabian production facility over the weekend. An attack affected 5% of global crude output. Today, US president Donald Trump announced that he would release US emergency supplies to pull the oil prices down. In addition, oil producers said that there were enough stocks stored up worldwide. However, the fresh attacks pushed prices of WTI and Brent back to their May’s levels.

    US and China trade representatives will meet on Friday. The goal of the meeting will be to discuss the possibility of an interim trade deal. We expect risk sentiment to be affected.

    The UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has had a meeting with the president of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker today, where they agreed that Brexit talks must intensify.

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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Market updates on September 13

    Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2kntDja

    13.09.2019

    Key events ahead:

    US retail sales and core retail sales – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

    Yesterday, the European Central bank introduced a new stimulus, which included lower rates and fresh quantitative easing measures. EUR/USD pair fell to the support at 1.0929 but managed to rebound and jumped by around 160 pips due to the weaker dollar. Since the beginning of the European trading session, bulls have pushed the pair to the resistance level at 1.1095 (200-period SMA) and have tested the 1.1106 level. The main focus of traders will be on US retail data. According to the forecasts, headline retail sales will increase by 0.2%, while its core level will advance by 0.1%. If the actual figures are higher than the forecasts, the pair will slide below the 1.1065 level. The next support levels in focus will lie at 1.1050 and 1.1036. Alternatively, the disappointing release will weaken the USD. As a result, buyers will be confident enough in retesting the resistance at 1.1106. The next resistance will lie at 1.1116. Strong bullish pressure will push the pair even higher towards the 1.1137 level.

    GBP/USD has taken advantage of the weaker USD and jumped by around100 pips to the resistance at 1.2459. The next direction of the pound will depend on the Brexit headlines. From the upside, it is recommended to pay attention to the 1.2459, 1.2495 and 1.2508 levels. If the USD gets stronger, we will see the slide towards the support levels at 1.2427, 1.2395 and 1.2338.

    USD/JPY has been moving down on the weaker USD. If it continues to fall further, the test of the support at 107.78 will be inevitable. If it is broken, the next key level will lie at 107.62. Buyers will be focused on the retest of the 108.16-10824 levels. If the pair breaks them, the further rise may be limited by the 108.49 level.



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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Market updates on September 12

    Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2kulcCJ

    12.09.2019

    Key events ahead:

    ECB monetary policy statement and main refinancing rate – 14:45 MT (11:45 GMT) time

    ECB press conference – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

    US CPI and core CPI – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

    Eyes of all traders of the EUR will be on the ECB meeting later today. The European Central bank is expected to deliver a great stimulus package, which may weaken the EUR. At the moment, EUR/USD is moving up towards the resistance at 1.1037. The next key level will be placed at 1.1054. From the downside, the first support will lie at 1.1. After that, you need to pay attention to the 1.0983 level. The next support will lie at 1.0960.

    After the US President Donald Trump tweeted he'd be delaying the next tariff hike on Chinese goods for two weeks, the USD/JPY pair tested the 108.16 resistance level. After that, the pair inched to the downside to the support level at 107.78. If the Japanese yen continues to strengthen, the next support will be placed at 107.62. In case of the bullish strength, the pair will rise back to the 108.16 level. The next resistance will lie at 108.29.

    The Australian dollar was supported by the news, too. The Antipodean currency has risen to the 0.6885 level. If bulls push AUD/USD pair higher, the next resistance will lie at 0.6896. On the other hand, if the USD gets stronger, the pair will fall to the support at 0.6867. After the breakout of this level, the 0.6857 mark will be important.

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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    7 options to make your money work for you

    People say that money is not supposed to be simply saved. It is believed that the best way to control your money is to invest it and make it work for you in the future. But what can you invest in? There are many options to choose from.
    Choose yours to be sure that your money is safe and sound!

    http://bit.ly/2khvc20

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------

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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    IMPORTANT EVENTS TO TRADE THIS WEEK

    More at: http://bit.ly/2k9LgCV

    09.09.2019

    ECB Meeting (Thu, 14:45 MT (11:45 GMT) time) – analysts don’t predict rate changes. However, traders will look at the tone of the central bank. If the bank sounds hawkish, that is unlikely, the European currency will move up. In the case of the dovish mode covering global uncertainties, the euro will move down.

    American CPI level (Thu, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) - forecasts are weak but the actual readings will be more important. If the releases overcome the forecasts, the American currency will appreciate.

    American retail sales figures (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) - again forecasts are not encouraging, the American currency has risks to decline.



    Political issues: Brexit

    The sudden resignation of Work and Pensions Secretary Amber Rudd heated up the situation. It’s worth reminding that recently PM’s brother, Jo Johnson, quit the government.

    Nevertheless, Boris Johnson is sticking to his decision to bring the UK to the Brexit by the end of October despite a series of fails in the Parliament. There are odds that the Prime Minister will get round the Parliament law requiring a Brexit delay in the case of no deal.

    On Monday, the Parliament will vote on the general elections taking its last chance to do something before the shutdown.

    Traders should follow the news carefully to not miss an opportunity to trade on the high volatility.

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    6 Ways to Prevent Overtrading

    If you ever risked without a clear edge in your trading – congratulations, you are overtrading. This habit is very addictive and can ruin your finances quickly. Try these techniques to stop overtrading:
    - Do not try to win back the money right after the loss.
    - Make a trading plan and keep to it. It will help you to discipline yourself.
    - Do not trade 24/7. You cannot be focused and effective without breaks. No need staring at charts non-stop. You may be bored to death, at best, and the worst-case scenario, you’ll take impulsive decisions you are going to regret.
    - Limit your profit and loss for a day. Train your will, stop even if you want more or feel frustrated because of a failure.
    - Decide on the number of trades you can make during the day. Stick to it.
    - Spare time for life without trading! Go out, run, paint, meet friends, and visit the family.


    http://bit.ly/2k6LfPZ

    ----------------------------------------------------



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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Market updates on September 6

    Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2lA18Pw

    06.09.2019

    Canadian jobs data – 15:30 MT time (12:30 GMT)

    American jobs data – 15:30 MT time (12:00 GMT)

    Fed Chair Powel Speaks - 19:30 MT time (16:30 GMT)

    Forex

    Traders are cautious awaiting the American jobs data. According to the forecast, in August, NFP gained 160K comparing to 164K a month before. Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate are anticipated to stay on hold. The forecast is not encouraging for the USD. However, the actual release is what actually will show the strength of the American currency.

    Later in the evening, Fed chairman Mr. Powell speaks in Zurich. If the chair gives any hints on the future monetary policy, markets will be affected.

    The US dollar index has been struggling ahead of the jobs release. If the NFP disappoints, the fall will continue. In the case of encouraging readings, depreciation of the greenback will be limited.

    What majors to trade?

    EURUSD continues trading in the downtrend but the weakness of the USD has been supporting the rise. If the USD keeps declining, the pair has a chance to reach 1.1065 and move above towards 1.1085. The strong USD will cause a reversal of the pair to 1.1025, 1.0986.


    Canadian and American jobs data are to released at the same time. Traders should be careful trading USDCAD.

    Up to now, the pair has been sliding because the forecast for the Canadian release is more optimistic than for the American one. The further direction will depend on the actual reading.

    If the fall continues, the pair will cross the support range of 1.3198-1.3185. The next supports are at 1.3154 and 1.3118.

    If the pair is able to recover, previous supports should be considered as resistances. If bulls keep the pair above 1.3198, the next important levels are 1.3234 and 1.3256.

    Commodities.

    The correction of the gold continues. Although the USD keeps weakening, the XAUUSD pair is moving down. The risk-on sentiment is the key factor that pulls the gold down.

    Now, bears are trying to break the support at 1,508. If they succeed, the next targets are placed at 1,495 and 1,485. If the pair manages to recover, previous supports will be used as resistances. If the pair sticks above 1508, levels to watch are 1,519 and 1,527.

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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Market updates on September 5

    Check more: http://bit.ly/2lFcC3X

    05.09.2019

    Forex

    The British pound keeps gaining on the Brexit updates. The Parliament passed the legislation both to block a hard no-deal Brexit and a general election.

    GBPUSD has crossed the resistance at 1.2290. 50-day MA may become an additional barrier. If 50-day MA is broken, consider 1.2367 as the next target.

    If the pair rebounds, look at 1.2216 and 1.2170.


    Commodities

    Gold turned down on the risk-on sentiment. Any positive sign in the Sino-American trade war improves the market sentiment. Parties announced a fresh round of talks in October. Moreover, China confirmed its willingness to achieve progress in the negotiations.

    Currently, XAUUSD is at highs of 2013. Thus, a small correction is obvious. However, it doesn’t mean that the fall will prolong for a long time. Supports are placed at 1536 and 1519-1525.

    Unlike gold, WTI is pushed by the risk-on sentiment. Nevertheless, risks of the decline exist. Downward pressure will pull WTI to supports at 55.30 and54.25.

    Crude oil inventories data is published today at 18:00 MT time. If the release shows a decline in the number of barrels, WTI will move towards the range of 56.80-57.50.

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Market updates on September 4

    Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2khyMJA

    04.09.2019

    Canadian Trade Balance data – 15:30 MT time (12:30 GMT)

    BOC Rate Statement – 17:00 MT time (14:00 GMT)

    On the daily chart of USDCAD, MACD indicator has formed a bearish divergence with the price. It signals the pair is turning down. If we take a look at H4, levels of support are placed at 1.3315, 1.3278 and 1.3251. If the CAD is boosted by the economic data, levels will be reached. However, if the central bank sounds dovish or the actual trade balance data is worse than the forecast, the fall will be limited. Previous supports will become resistances. If the pair stays above 1.3315, the resistances are at 1.3370 and 1.3373.

    GBPUSD has strengthened on the Brexit news.

    Although the British Parliament started working only yesterday, it managed to affect the British currency.

    As the Parliament doesn’t have a lot of time to prevent the no-deal Brexit, today members are supposed to put forward a draft law that would force Mr. Johnson to delay Brexit until January 31, 2020. If the law passes, the Prime Minister will call the general election. Thus, the British currency will continue being highly volatile.

    Up to now, the GBPUSD pair has been targeting the resistance at 1.2178. RSI indicator is about to cross the overbought area. However, the pair still has a chance to keep rising. If 1.2178 is broken, the next range of the resistance is 1.2214-1.2240.

    If the pair moves down, supports are placed at 1.2117 and 1.2080.



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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Market updates on September 3

    Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2lXVh6R

    03.09.2019

    American ISM Manufacturing PMI – 17:00 MT time (14:00 GMT)

    The EURUSD pair keeps struggling. On the daily chart, it has already crossed the support at 1.0965 targeting new lows. For intraday trading, we need to consider the H4 chart. The next support is at 1.0934. A break below it will cause a decline to 1.0887. If the actual release of ISM Manufacturing PMI is weaker than the forecast, there is a chance that the fall will be limited. If the pair is able to recover, previous supports will become levels of resistance.


    Parliament is due to debate an emergency plan to take control of the legislation to stop a no-deal Brexit on October 31.

    On the daily chart of GBPUSD, the pair hit the crucial level of 1.20. Although such indicators as MACD and Awesome Oscillator signal a reversal, the pair has been slowing down. The next support is at 1.1986. If the pair closes below it, we can anticipate a further fall. A rebound will push the pair to 1.2020.

    The Australian dollar has been strengthening despite weaker actual reading of retail sales data and luck of hawkish comments by the RBA.

    On the daily chart of AUDUSD, the pair rebounded from the support at 0.6689. The pair needs to break above 0.6735 to confirm the recovery. However, Moving Averages continue moving down. It signals a possible continuation of the downtrend. Thus, there are risks of the return to 0.6689.

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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    5 important events this week will bring us!

    More at: http://bit.ly/2lUlPpp

    02.09.2019

    RBA rate statement (Tue, 7:30 MT (4:30 GMT) time) – We anticipate the Reserve bank of Australia to keep the interest rate unchanged at 1%. At the same time, we will be looking for more hints on further decisions, as the market expects more rate cuts until the end of this year.

    Canada’s trade balance (Wed, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – According to the forecasts, the difference in value between exported and imported goods will reach 0.2 billion. A higher level will boost the CAD.

    Inflation report hearings by the BOE (Wed, 16:15 MT (13:15 GMT) time) – If the Bank of England governor is hawkish, the GBP will be supported.

    BOC rate statement (Wed, 17:00 MT (14:00 GMT) time) – The interest rate is forecast to remain at 1.75%. The attention will be on the tone of the central bank. As usual, more hawkish comments will be appreciated by the CAD bulls.

    US jobs data (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – The level of non-farm payrolls is expected to advance by 168 thousand jobs. At the same time, average hourly earnings will increase by 0.3% and the unemployment rate will likely remain at the same level of 3.7%. If the actual level of NFP and average hourly earnings are higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the USD will rise.

    Hot news:

    The United States and China imposed new tariffs on each other’s goods. The 15% tariffs by the US on the part of $300 billion goods was confirmed by Donald Trump during the weekend. At the same time, the retaliatory step came from China with a target of $75 billion in US goods. It pulled the risk sentiment in the market down.

    The series of court hearings, which plan to stop the British PM Boris Johnson’s prorogation of the parliament may affect the strength of the British pound. The first one is due tomorrow, so pay attention to the news. It’s worth to remember that the parliament will return on Tuesday and opposition lawmakers are expected to propose legislation to force the government to postpone Brexit.



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