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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    How to trade on July 2?

    https://bit.ly/31vDIO5

    02.07.2020

    Fundamental factors

    The market sentiment improved after Pfizer and BioNtech released positive results of the vaccine experiment. Tests proved that the vaccine is safe, and patients produce antibodies.
    The ADP report came worse than analysts expected yesterday. The report revealed that US firms added 2.37 million jobs, while the forecast was 2.85. The US government poured a lot of stimulus measures to support the economy, but the fresh coronavirus outbreak in the USA has slowed down the recovery.
    Crude oil inventories bet all estimates yesterday evening. The oil supply contracted by 7.2 million barrels. The forecast was only the 900 000 drop.

    Watch our daily forex trading plan!

    Technical tips

    Stocks

    Nasdaq reached all-time highs at 10 300 after that encouraging news. Meanwhile, S&P 500 has risen for the fourth day. If the price crosses the resistance at 3 110, it will open doors towards the next resistance at 3 225. Support levels are at the 200-moving average at 3 025 and at the key psychological mark at 3 000.

    EUR/USD

    Let’s move on to EUR/USD. The pair rose significantly yesterday after the worse-than-expected ADP report. Most analysts have bullish prospects for the euro. The first reason is the weakening dollar. Its global dominance is waning. The second reason, unlike Europe, the USA is suffering from the resurgence in new infections and, therefore, has grimmer economic outlook. Reuters strategists set a target price for the EUR at 1.15 in 12 months.

    EUR/USD has just crossed the strong resistance at 1.126, but stopped below the 100-period moving average and the top trendline. If it breaks it through, it will surge further to the high of June 29 at 1.129 and then to the next resistance at 1.133. Support levels are at the 1.1250 and 1.1205. The NFP report today at 15:30 MT time will add fresh volatility.

    Gold

    The gold price is moving down. It will meet the support level at the recent low of June 24 at $1 760.If it breaks it down, it may fall even deeper to the 50-day moving average at $1 727. It’s likely to be a short correction rather than a reverse. Gold may take a breath for a while and then surge again. Follow the NFP report. If the data comes worse than the forecast, gold can rise.

    Oil

    Finally, let’s talk about oil. The encouraging oil report gave stimulus for prices to increase. The WTI oil price is slightly above $40 dollars a barrel now. Analysts believe it will stay near this level for some time. Support levels are at $38 and $36.

    Upcoming events:

    The NFP report will be released at 15:30 MT time. Stay tuned!

    Check the economic calendar

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    What drives the market on July 1?

    https://bit.ly/31vDIO5

    01.07.2020

    The market sentiment is mixed. Let’s look at most interesting movements on the market today.
    Fundamental factors

    The Fed’s chairman Jerome Powell claimed yesterday that the US economy entered the new phase of economic recovery sooner than expected. Encouraging US data proved that the USA is moving forward to the V-shaped recovery. US consumer confidence showed yesterday the largest increase since late 2011. However, there are still challenges ahead as the labor market is still well-below pre-crisis levels. More than 20 million Americans remain unemployed. "All levels of government" should impose stimulus measures "for as long as needed" to support the economy rebound, Powell claimed. Stocks gained.

    The Canadian GDP came better than the forecast. The indicator shrank by 11.6%, while analysts anticipated the 12.5% contraction. CAD rose.

    Virus infection are still rising in some US states. Alarming data indicated that coronavirus cases in 14 states in the USA more than doubled in June.

    Investors worry about a new national security law for Hong Kong. China imposed strict punishment measures up to life in prison for the sedition and collusion with foreign forces. Sino-American tensions escalated. Gold climbed up.

    Technical tips

    Gold

    XAU/USD is heading towards the key psychological mark at $1,800. Just few inches left. Support levels are at $1,760 and $1,720.


    S&P 500

    The stock index rose on the optimistic speech of Jerome Powell. The price crossed the resistance at 3,075 and took a breath after that. Most analysts anticipate that the stock rally will continue further. Anyway, if risk-off factors outweigh, look for support levels at the 200-day moving average at 3,025 and then at 3,000.


    USD/CAD

    The encouraging Canadian GDP pushed USD/CAD down. The pair met the support at the 100-day moving average at 1.3565. The risk-on market sentiment may push it even lower. If it breaks it down, it will clear the way towards the next support at 1.3495. Resistant levels are at 1.3605 and 1.3685.

    Upcoming events:

    ADP non-farm payrolls will be released at 15:15 MT time. If the data turns out better than expected, the market sentiment will improve. Follow the report!

    Check the economic calendar

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Will the NFP push the USD again?

    https://bit.ly/2ZoGlhP

    30.06.2020

    Non-Farm Payrolls data will be released on Thursday at 15:30 MT time.

    Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD

    The last release of the NFP was far greater than what one could have thought. 2.5mln jobs were created against a loss of 8mln expected by the market. Fundamentally, it is hilarious. For a trader, though, it is a conundrum. As the last release was unexpectedly high, the question is: will the American labor market be able to hold on to this tremendous resilience in the coming release? Because if it doesn’t, we are in for another blow to the USD. The preliminary data shows, though, that the workforce is being added into the market, so there is a high probability that the NFP will bring positive figures beating the expectations.

    If the data is better-than-thought, the USD will rise.
    Otherwise, it will fall.

    Check the economic calendar

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Facebook crashed

    https://bit.ly/2ZhI2h6

    29.06.2020

    Zuckerberg has lost 7 billion dollars as companies pull adds from Facebook. Catch the moment!

    What happened?

    The social media giant is facing the advertising boycott. Corporations such as Unilever, Coca-Cola and Starbucks cancelled their ad contracts with Facebook. They organized the #StopHateForProfit campaign to protest against the Facebook’s failure to stop the spread of hate. The Facebook’s co-founder Mark Zuckerberg announced on Friday that they expanded their policy to prevent any hate and violence on the platform. However, people don’t believe that Facebook is effectively managing hate speech and disinformation. Do you remember that Twitter banned posts by President Donald Trump for its violence? Facebook hasn’t done anything with similar posts. People criticized the company for its inaction.
    What does it mean for a trader?

    It’s a great opportunity to make profit! The Facebook stock price will fall, while companies continue boycotting. It may meet the support at $210. If it breaks It down, it can plummet deeper to $204 and then to the 200-day moving average at $198. Follow news further!

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Risk-off is back. All eyes on the US data.

    https://bit.ly/31dDKKl

    25.06.2020

    The market sentiment deteriorated as the USA and some other countries are suffering from the new virus resurgence. Investors worry that the economic reopening may be delayed.
    Fundamental factors

    Australia has recorded its largest peak in COVID-19 cases since April. The US states such as Florida and California exceeded daily highs.
    Investors are concerned that governments may impose strict restrictions and lockdowns again. That may lead to devastating results for most businesses. Stocks dropped on that worries.
    Margie Patel, portfolio manager at Wells Fargo Asset Management, said that stocks just need to take a breath and then they may continue rallying.
    The USA revealed new tariffs on export goods from the Eurozone. The EU considers to ban the entry for Americans. The US-EU tensions began to heat up.
    The IMF lowered its guidelines for the global economic recovery and predict deeper downturn and slower rebound.


    Technical tips
    S&P 500

    S&P 500 dropped dramatically, but the 200-day moving average stopped it at the 3,020 level. If it manages to cross this line, it will open doors towards the key psychological mark at 3,000. Follow the release of the US GDP and unemployment claims at 15:30 MT time. It will be the strong catalyst for the further falling, if the data comes worse than expected. Otherwise, if the market catches the risk-on stimulus after the report, stocks may soar. In this case, look for resistance levels at 3,110 and 3,225.

    XAU/USD

    Gold is headed to new highs. Market participants found it the most attractive safe-haven asset amid the current uncertainty. The US dollar gains too, but gold still prevails. If it crosses the resistance at 1,775, it will surge to 1,800. Support levels are 1,717 and 1,700. Again, the US data will have a huge impact on gold. Don’t miss out.

    AUD/USD

    AUD/USD has tumbled significantly as Australia suffers from the largest high in coronavirus cases. Look for the break below the 0.6830 level, as the pair may fall even deeper to the next support at 0.6800. Resistance lines are the 50-day moving average at 0.6890 and the high of June 23 at 0.6920.

    Upcoming event:

    The US GDP and unemployment claims at 15:30 MT time will make the market really volatile. Follow the report!

    Check the economic calendar




    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    How to trade on June 23?

    https://bit.ly/3ersn5a

    23.06.2020
    Fundamental factors

    Trump’s adviser Peter Navarro roiled the market. He said that the US-China trade deal is over during the interview by Fox News. Stock dropped



    Later, the US president calmed the market’s participants down. The phase one agreement of the trade deal is enforceable. Both sides officially claimed that they intend to stick to the deal.
    That situation has proven that the US-China relationship is still one of the key drivers of the market.
    The Australian Manufacturing PMI tuned out 49.8, it was better than analysts expected. That data encouraged investors as above 50.0 indicates industry expansion. AUD jumped.
    The Japanese Manufacturing PMI came worse than forecasts. JPY loosened.

    Technical tips
    S&P 500

    Most analysts don’t expect another pullback this week. S&P 500 is headed towards new highs. It has just passed 3110. If bulls are as strong as most anticipate, the stock index will surge to 3225. Support levels are 3020 and 3000.

    AUD/USD

    The AUD/USD rose on the positive industry data. If it crosses the resistance at 0.6950, it will open doors toward the June high at 0.7020. Nevertheless, if risk-averse returns, the pair will slump to 0.6800.

    USD/JPY

    The Japanese yen weakened against the US dollar on the poor PMI data. The 50-day moving average at 107.40 is a key resistance that the pair struggles to break. If it crosses it, it will soar to 38.2 % Fibonacci level at 107.85. Support levels are 106.80 and 106.00.

    WTI oil

    The WTI oil price has reached the three-months high. It has crossed $40.5 a barrel. Now it’s moving up towards the early March highest point at $47.5. Support levels are $36 and $32.


    To trade WTI with FBS you need to choose WTI-20N.
    Upcoming news today:

    The French, German and EU PMI will be released at 10:15, 10:30 and 11:00 MT time, respectively.
    The UK PMI will be reported at 11:30 MT time.
    The US PMI will be published at 16:45 MT time.

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Market news and trade ideas on June 19

    https://bit.ly/2AHqqDh

    19.06.2020

    Risk-averse weakened and riskier assets climbed up. Let’s have a closer look.
    Fundamental factors


    The Bank of England cut its bond-buying program by about a half. Investors believe it’s too early as there is still a real potential of a second coronavirus wave. Of course, GBP fell down yesterday after the announcement. Also, the possible no-deal Brexit is another negative factor that can push GBP down in the long run.

    The USA and China are suffering from the coronavirus resurgence. New cases in Florida exceeded the past week’s average and Texas hospitalizations jumped by another record.

    Tensions between China and the USA are growing. According to the Chinese professor Wang Jisi, “China-US ties today worse than Soviet-US relations during the cold war”. Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at the China Industrial Bank, said that the Chinese issue will be one of the key points during the US presidential election, which may lead to disruption in the Chinese economy, mostly in market expectations.


    Technical tips
    GBP/USD

    The British pound has gained today after falling down the whole week. Now it’s captured between the 100-day moving average above and the 50-day MA below. If it breaks through the above resistance at 1.2500, it will surge further to 1.2680. Otherwise, the move below 1.2400 can push the price down to the support at 1.2300.

    S&P 500

    Today S&P 500 is heading towards the two-weeks high at 3230. It has almost crossed the 78.6% Fibonacci level at 3135. However, if risk-averse comes back the next week, it may drop to the support at the key psychological mark at 3000.

    XAU/USD

    Gold has gained on the weak US dollar and surged up. It’s going to the resistance level at 1740. If it crosses it, it will rise further to 1750. Otherwise, if it falls down below the support $1720, it may drop even deeper to 1700.

    WTI crude oil

    Oil prices rose on the recovered demand as lockdowns eased in most countries. The WTI oil is approaching the three-months high at $40. The move above may push the price even higher to the resistance at the 200-day moving average at $45. Nevertheless, if it falls down, it will meet support levels at $34 and $30.


    Upcoming events

    The ECB economic summit will be held today. Authorities will discuss the economic outlook in the context of COVID-19.
    The Canadian retail sales will be published at 15:30 MT time.

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    What drives the market on June 17?

    https://bit.ly/37GR776

    17.06.2020

    The market sentiment is mixed today. How to trade in such an uncertain environment?
    Fundamental factors


    The Fed’s chairman Jerome Powell reported yesterday: “until the public is confident that the disease is contained, a full recovery is unlikely.” He anticipates the long way for economy to stabilize as levels of output and unemployment are still well below pre-crisis levels. He pointed to the widening gap between rich and poor in the USA as the crisis hit mostly low-income Americans and minorities.

    The new coronavirus outbreak happened in Beijing. China imposed strict restrictions. Also, Florida reported record new cases. Concerns about the second wave raised.

    Nevertheless, 1 trillion dollars from the Trump administration encouraged investors as well as the Federal Reserve has started to buy individual corporate bonds.

    Technical tips

    EUR/USD

    EUR/USD formed the head and shoulders pattern on the 4-hour chart. If the price falls below the neckline support at 1.1200, it will drop even further after that. Also, the MACD indicator signals the bearish prospect for EUR as it went below zero. Otherwise, if the price crosses the left shoulder's high of 1.1350, it will open doors towards new highs near 1.1400.

    S&P 500

    S&P 500 has been climbing up the fourth day straight. Now it meets the resistance at 78.6% Fibonacci level at 3135. The move above this line will set a further bullish trend. The next resistance will be at 3230. Nevertheless, if the price drops below the key psychological support at 3000, it may fall even deeper to 2930. Watch closely!

    XAU/USD

    Gold is trading near $1730 last days. There are no huge price movements because market participants are hesitating as both risk-off and risk-on factors weigh a lot. On the economic side, the second round of Fed’s Chairman Jerome Powell and the US housing data can give additional hints to gold traders. The resistance is at 1750. Support levels are 1715 and 1700.

    Coming market events:


    The Canadian consumer price index at 15:30 MT time will give the fresh stimulus. If the data is better than expected, CAD will rise.

    The US housing data will be published at 15:30 MT time.

    The second round of the Jerome Powell’s speech will be at 19:00 MT time. It will influence the overall market sentiment.

    Check the economic calendar

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Be ready for the next market fall

    https://bit.ly/37GR776

    16.06.2020

    All of us have the fear to loose money. And, when the market crash happens, most of us keep it to ourselves. However, it’s not the best approach as we just sit and loose the potential profit we would have, if we were a little bit braver. So, let’s learn what every trader should do, when the market falls again.

    Keep calm

    Yes, it’s hard to leave emotions aside, but it’s so important not to panic in times of market crashes. For example, in 150 years the S&P 500 fell by 30% or more 15 times, or about once a decade on average. And what does always happen next? It recovers again and again. Sometimes it takes months, less often – years. It’s not a good idea to park your money in the stock market in these moments, but if you already have them, it will be better to hung on as stocks will rebound anyway. While many investors panic and sell all their stocks settling for low prices and possibly even significant losses.

    Make a wish list

    The most famous investor Warren Buffet said: “We [he and partner Charlie Munger] simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful”. Make now a wish list of stocks you’ve always wanted. So, the next time, when the market crash happens, you’ll enjoy buying all of them at very low prices. And then the market bounces back, prices will surge and you’ll gain.

    Make an emergency fund

    This extra money will give you an opportunity to buy assets at good prices from your above wish list. Moreover, you won’t depend from any unforeseen factors.

    Diversify your portfolio

    Don’t focus only on one currency, stock or any asset. Rebalance your portfolio and you’ll reduce your risks significantly. Finally, be ready to react, monitor the market, remember that even the bearish stock market is an opportunity!

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Main market drivers on June 11

    https://bit.ly/2MQxy2k

    11.06.2020

    Risk-off prevails on the market. Consider trade ideas that presented below.

    Fed statement

    Yesterday Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Fed, made a rate statement and gave economic guidelines. All market participants waited for that big event. The Powell’s speech was quite dovish. He claimed that the Fed will continue pumping stimulus until the US employment comes back to pre-crisis rates. Jerome Powell was really clear to leave rates below zero for longer: “ We’re not even thinking about thinking about raising rates”. According to him, the Fed will use all its tools such as low interest rates and enormous amounts of bond purchasing as long as it takes. The economy faces “considerable risks” over the medium term, the Fed mentioned in its statement.

    Stocks slumped

    Fears of a second coronavirus wave and the caution from the Fed pushed stocks down. S&P 500 is trading near the 78.6% Fibonacci level at 3140. If it breaks it down, it will open doors towards the support at 3000. However, if risk-on comes back soon, stocks can rise again and meet the resistance at 3300.


    Gold contracted

    Gold prices closed lower yesterday, the first time after three sessions going up. The Fed claimed that it will hold rates near zero at least through 2022. That makes gold a favorable asset for investors in the long term. However, the future risk-on as economies are recovering may weigh on gold prices. XAU/USD is moving down towards the support line at $1725. If it crosses it, gold may fall even deeper to the key barrier at $1700. The resistance is at $1750.


    GBP/USD dropped

    The Fed’s guideline for the future slow recovery has set risk-averse on the market. The British pound fell down yesterday. If GBP breaks through the 200-day moving average and the support at $1.265, it will be a pivotal moment for bearish traders as GBP may fall even deeper to the key 1.25 psychological mark after that. Nevertheless, if any positive news pushed the British pound up, it will meet the resistance at 1.2825.

    Oil decreased

    American crude stockpiles raised to a record high. That’s why, investors have fears about the future oil oversupply. Let’s look at the WTI oil chart. The price fell yesterday to $38. If it continues dipping, it will meet the support level at $34 and then at $30. However, oil prices are unlikely to fall down so far. Economies are recovering and the oil demand will increase at the same race. The resistance is at $47.5.

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Market outlook on June 10

    https://bit.ly/2YkcneC

    10.06.2020

    USD is still loosing positions against major currencies. There is a good chance to gain on it! Let’s have a closer look.

    EUR is back on track

    EUR had been climbing for over two weeks since May 26, but it dropped on Friday after the encouraging NFP data. Nevertheless, this week EUR started on a positive footing. It’s headed towards pre-crisis highs at 1.15. Support levels are at 78.6% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels, 1.131 and 1.117, respectively.

    GBP keeps rallying

    Now GBP/USD is approaching the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2825. The British pound is likely to gain this week as UK Business Secretary claimed further easing of lockdown restrictions. If it crosses it, it will clear the way up towards the three-month high at 1.31. In opposite, if the pair fails to grow, it will meet the support level at the 200-day moving average at 1.265. If it breaks it down, it may fall deeper to 1.25.

    Gold is moving up

    XAU/USD reversed after the pullback last week. It’s going towards the retracement level at the high of May 29 at $1730. If it breaks it out, it will open doors to the highest point for over 8 years at $1750. Otherwise, if it starts falling, it will meet support levels at $1700 and $1680.


    USD/JPY is steeply falling down

    USD/JPY has easily passed the support at 107.5. Now it’s getting closer to the next support at 107. If it crosses it, it may plummet even deeper to 106. However, if some factors push USD/JPY up, the pair will meet the resistance – the 200-day moving average at 108.5.




    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    FOMC statement on June 10

    https://bit.ly/37enPwl

    09.06.2020

    Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF

    On June 10 at 9:00 MT time the Fed will report updated economic and financial guidelines — the first ones since last December. Also, later at 9:30 MT time the FOMC will held the press conference. There are no doubts that rates won’t go below zero as the US economy has a real potential of a V-shaped recovery as S&P 500 has almost reached the pre-crisis level. Some analysts consider that may be it’s time to even increase rates as the NFP data was encouraging. The May jobs report showed that only 2.5 million people lost jobs, while economists anticipated 8 million. Also, the unemployment rate turned out 13%, when the forecast was 20%. It was a breath of a fresh air after a long time of the negative market sentiment.
    How the Fed will react to all this?

    Despite a positive May jobs report, it’s highly expected that the Fed won’t change the interest rate policy and will continue stimulating the economy. According to Sam Bullard, senior economist at Wells Fargo, rates will remain near zero until the end of 2021.

    Some analysts wonder that the Fed may stop its quantitative easing program on the positive tone as the economy is improving. While others think that authorities will leave its policy unchanged and wait for better indicators “until the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve maximum employment and price stability”. Their quantitative easing has been reduced significantly with just $4 billion dollars per day of Treasury purchases scheduled for the coming week versus 75 billion dollars at the peak of the crisis. The Fed is likely to continue the purchases in the amounts that would be needed. On the economic outlook, most strategists think the Fed will once again focus on the severity of the situation and downgrade risks, but also may mention that the economic activity is bottoming out.

    Check the economic calendar

    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Market movers on June 8

    https://bit.ly/2ALAuuu

    08.06.2020

    Oil prices surged after successful OPEC+ meeting

    OPEC+ members have signed a significant deal to cut the oil supply by 9.6 million barrels a day next month. In addition, any country that failed to fully implement output cuts should compensate it during next months. Also, keep in mind that countries a reopening and demand is recovering. That all played well for oil prices: WTI oil opened today at $40 a barrel and Brent oil – at $43. It’s the highest level for over three months! Here below you can see how U.S. Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette welcomed the deal on Saturday.


    Let’s look at the Brent oil chart. It’s headed towards 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $45. And, this price is likely to be reached soon. The next retracement level will be at $51.5. Support levels are $39 and $36.

    S&P 500 is aggressively climbing up

    First of all, look at the chart. You’ll see really great performance of S&P 500. The price has passed $3190. If it crosses the retracement level at $3250, it will clear the way up towards $3335. Support levels are 3110 and 3000. What is the reason of such a fast growth? The reason should be the optimistic market sentiment as economies are reopening.

    Gold is recovering its losses

    The recent drop of the shining metal seems to be in the process of restoration: XAU/USD is one step away from testing $1,700. Noting the cloudy status of the US-China relations, we are likely to see that cross upwards pretty soon.



    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    NFP forecasts from 10 major banks

    https://bit.ly/2MyRZ3W

    05.06.2020

    Today is the big day! Investors are waiting for NFP at 15:30 MT time. NFP shows the change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Today it will reveal the employment change in May. It’s one of the most important indicators for all traders as it causes strong market movements. Here below you’ll find predictions from 10 major banks. Their forecasts vary from -2.2 million to -10 million. The most common one is -8 million.

    RBC Economics

    RBC Economics provides economic analysis and forecasts to the largest bank in Canada - the Royal Bank of Canada and its clients. They anticipate a 2.2 million decline in payrolls after April’s 20.5 million drop and a further increase in the unemployment rate to 20%.

    Wells Fargo

    It’s the world's fourth-largest bank, located in San Francisco. Wells Fargo’s analysts believe non-farm payrolls will drop by 8 million and the unemployment rate will climb to 20%.

    NBF

    NBF is abbreviation for the National Bank of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates. They expect the US employment to drop by 7.5 million.

    CIBC

    The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, commonly referred to as CIBC, is one of the "Big Five" banks in Canada. CIBC analysts suggest that around 6 million jobs were shed in May and the unemployment rate will rise by 18.6%.

    ING

    The ING Group is a Dutch banking and financial services corporation headquartered in Amsterdam. The expect the huge 10 million drop in non-farm payrolls and a rise in unemployment to 20%.

    Westpac

    Westpac is the Australia's first bank, located in Sydney. Its economists predict a 7.5 million decline in employment in May and the unemployment rate to peak at 20%.

    Deutsche Bank

    Deutsche Bank is a multinational investment bank and financial services company headquartered in Frankfurt, Germany. Its analysts forecast a 6.1 million drop in nonfarm payrolls, with the unemployment rate rising to 19.1%.

    Danske Bank

    Headquartered in Copenhagen, it is the largest bank in Denmark and a major retail bank in the northern European. Danske Bank’s analysts think that employment in the USA has dropped by 10 million. However, they mentioned that we may be too pessimistic.

    TDS

    TD Securities is a reliable Canadian investment bank. According to economists at TD Securities, the -8 million consensus for payrolls is too weak. Their forecast is -3 million. The TDS expects less weakness than consensus in the unemployment rate as well: a 2.8% rise to 17.5%, versus 19.5% for the consensus.

    Goldman Sachs

    It’s an American multinational investment bank, headquartered in New York City. Analysts at Goldman Sachs expect a 7.25 million drop in payrolls and a jump to 21.5% in the unemployment rate.

    Follow the NFP report at 15:30 MT time today and catch the market movement!



    Leave a comment:


  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Risk-on sentiment eased on June 4

    https://bit.ly/2A4apqm

    04.06.2020

    The market takes a breath after the rally up. What is next?
    Stocks have a pause

    S&P 500 passed the 3100 mark, unseen level since March. The reopening of economies and stimulus packages across the world improved the market sentiment. Investors believe that the worst is over. And, according to Bloomberg, we’ll see more support for the stock market.

    Moreover, the US ADP private payrolls were much less than analysts expected. The data showed that only 2.76 million lost jobs, when 9 million were anticipated. That’s still a poor data, but it’s a sign that the economy is moving in the right direction. Today traders will wait for the US unemployment claims at 15:30 MT time.

    Let’s look at the S&P 500 chart. Yesterday it showed the best 50-day trading stretch. If the price advances further, it may ramp up to the March 3 high at 3250. Support levels are 3000 and 2935.

    OPEC+ meeting in doubt

    Oil closed at the highest level since March: WTI - $37 and Brent - $40. However, today prices slightly contracted. Most investors are in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the OPEC+ meeting. The question is for how long the oil alliance will cut supply. If they agree to extend cuts till the end of the year, it will definitely push prices up. Look at the Brent oil chart below. The price is exactly under the 100-day moving average. If it breaks through it, it will surge up to $45. Support levels are $36 and $34.


    To trade Brent with FBS you need to choose BRN-20N.
    Gold dropped under risk-on

    XAU/USD couldn’t find any demand in such a risk-on atmosphere. The price fell down to the support level at 1700. The next support is at 1680. Resistance levels are 1730 and 1750. Gold set a really bullish trend. And, it’s unlikely that it will reverse soon. It looks more like a short term contraction. Tomorrow NFP at 15:30 MT time should add some volatility to the market. Be ready!


    ECB statement today

    The European Central Bank will have a meeting today at 14:45 MT time and then later hold a press conference at 15:30 MT time. Click here to know how to trade EUR after the ECB statement.

    Check the economic calendar

    Leave a comment:

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