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  • MartinWilliams
    started a topic Forex News and market analysis FBS

    Forex News and market analysis FBS

    Forex today: a lot of news

    21.05.2018
    • The greenback is continuing to rise. The US dollar index has almost reached the level of $94. Good news on a trade war’s easing is supporting the upward movement.
    • More information on the trade war’s issue. After 5-day negotiations in Washington, the US and China came to an agreement. Countries agreed to put trade tariffs on hold. Moreover, China plans to "significantly increase purchases" of U.S. goods. However, putting trade tensions on hold does not mean an end of the conflict. Let’s see how long the US and China will be loyal to each other.
    • The euro continues its downward movement. EUR/USD is trading within 1.1680-1.1840. Italy still puts pressure on the single currency. Today, leaders of two coalition parties - the League and the 5 Star Movement - will meet with the Italian president to present their candidate on a position of a prime minister. Whether the president will approve the candidate, the Italian government’s formation will be closer to the end. However, it is not supposed to encourage the single currency a lot, as worries on the future policy of the new government still exist. The euro is anticipated to trade within 1.1680-1.1840.

    • The pound is losing points ahead of the next round of Brexit negotiations. GBP/USD tested the support at 1.34. No important economic data will be released today. So if bears are stronger, the pair will break the support at 1.34. Otherwise, it will trade within 1.34-1.35. On Tuesday, the next round of Brexit talks will take place in Brussels. Last week was full of mixed news. Firstly, there were reports in the media that the UK is ready to stay tied to the customs union beyond 2021. Then, however, British Prime Minister Theresa May said on Thursday that Britain will leave the EU customs union after all. As we can see, the Tuesday’s round is supposed to be interesting. Moreover, inflation report hearings will be out on Tuesday at 12:00 MT time. The pound has chances to recover.

    • The easing of the trade war’s tensions was supposed to support the aussie. However, the Australian currency could not gain momentum. AUD/USD is above the pivot point at 0.75 for the third day. No notable economic data are anticipated either on Monday or on Tuesday. If traders take into consideration trade war’s easing more seriously, the AUD/USD pair has chances to stay above the pivot point. Otherwise, the strong greenback will weigh on the AUD/USD’s movement and the pair will break the support (pivot point) at 0.75.

    • The New Zealand dollar lost a chance to break above the pivot point at 0.69 because of the weak retail sales’ data (actual 0.1% vs forecast 1.0%). NZD/USD plunged below the support at 0.69 and is moving to the next one at 0.6850. No significant economic data are anticipated to be released in next few days, so, only the weaker greenback will be able to pull the NZD/USD pair back to the pivot point at 0.69.

    • The NAFTA deal is under pressure. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that US president Donald Trump aims at a good deal and he doesn’t worry about any deadline. Moreover, it doesn’t mean that Mr. Trump will avoid withdrawal from the deal or any other action if he decides it’s the best option. Negotiations may continue until 2019. The comments appeared after Trump administration missed a deadline for finishing the agreement by May 17.

    The USD/CAD pair was rising since Thursday till the beginning of this week. However, up to now, the Canadian dollar is rising against the US dollar. Maybe news on a possibility of any negotiations supported investors’ confidence in any progress in the deal. USD/CAD is moving to the support at 1.2850. Today is a bank holiday in Canada. As a result, no important data will be released. If bears are able to pull the pair below the support, the next aim is at 1.2825 (50-day MA). Otherwise, the pair will stay above 1.2850.

    That is all for today. Follow markets news with us!








  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    5 important events this week will bring us!

    Read at fbs : http://bit.ly/2VVU15m

    20.05.2019

    Speech by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell (Tue, 02:00 MT) – The Fed chair is due to speak during the Financial markets conference in Florida. His comments may shake the USD.

    British CPI (Wed, 11:30 MT) – The level of the consumer price index is forecast to reach 2.2%. Higher figures will support the British pound amid the Brexit pressure.

    Canadian core retail sales (Wed, 15:30 MT) – The indicator is expected to advance by 0.8%. If its actual level is higher, the loonie will rise.

    Eurozone PMIs (Thu, 10:15-11:00 MT) – If the indicators are higher than the forecasts, the EUR will go up.

    UK retail sales (Fri, 11:30 MT) – Positive release of the indicator of retail sales will be good for the GBP.

    Hot news:

    During the Asian session, the market sentiment was softer. However, at the start of the European trading session, the US-China trade tensions have started over again as China warned about the countermeasures on Huawei case. The US president Donald Trump and his administration banned Huawei and other telecommunication firms from doing business with American companies last week. Fresh uncertainties increase fears in the markets.

    Also, the People's Bank of China announced that it would continue to keep the yuan stable within the balanced range. It strengthened the Chinese currency.

    The unexpected victory for conservative Prime Minister Scott Morrison pushed the Australian dollar higher. He promised to simplify the tax system and introduce a tax cut.

    The Brazilian real continues to weaken due to the protests against the freeze to the education budget and lower growth forecasts for Brazil from BNP and Goldman Sachs. Moreover, as an emerging markets currency, it keeps being affected by the trade tension between the US and China.

    Europe anticipates the elections on May 23-25. During these elections, the citizens of the 28 countries will vote in a new European parliament Analysts anticipate Eurosceptic and anti-immigration parties to gain a lot due to the Brexit and global uncertainties. We need to pay attention to the parties from the UK. If the conservative party of Theresa May gains fewer votes, than others, it will increase the pressure on the current prime minister to resign. Also, keep an eye on the comments by the Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini. He said that Italy could break the EU budget rules on debt levels if necessary to raise the level of employment. If his party succeeds, the fears in the market may weaken the euro.

    During the OPEC+ meeting this weekend, the members agreed to maintain the production cuts. It pushed the prices for crude higher.



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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Weaker risk sentiment pulls the AUD to its lowest levels since January

    http://bit.ly/2QfOlgt

    15.05.2019

    AUD/USD continues to move within the downward channel. At the moment, the aussie is testing the support at 0.6917. This is the lowest level for the pair since the flash crash at the beginning of January. The next support lies at 0.6871. The bearish weakness may help bears to push the Australian dollar back to the resistance at 0.6957. If this level is broken, the next resistance will lie at 0.7. RSI is currently testing the oversold zone, while the Stochastic indicator is already moving within this zone.

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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    The jobs data may support the AUD

    The Australian jobs data will be out on May 16, at 4:30 MT. The indicator of employment change demonstrates how many people were employed during the previous month. Analysts anticipate it to advance by 15,200 people this time. As for the unemployment rate, it is anticipated to remain at the same level of 5%. The indicators may bring positive momentum to the AUD, which is struggling amid the trade tensions.

    http://bit.ly/2YvlSpO

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------

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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    American import prices rally a bit

    More at: http://bit.ly/30gLW9G

    14.05.2019

    In April, American import prices surged less than anticipated in April due to the fact that jumps in the cost of food and petroleum were tamed by the largest tumble in the price of capital goods for a decade, dropping a hint at the fact that inflation could stay moderate for a while.

    Tuesday’s the report from the Labor Department on Tuesday followed the previous week’s data, which indicated mild producer as well as consumer price jumps in April that underscored the Fed’s projection of no further interest rate hikes in 2019. Financial analysts state that inflation is also not too low for the major US financial institution to cut rates in 2019.

    Early in May, the Federal Reserve kept rates intact and indicated little inclination to have its monetary policy adjusted anytime soon.

    As a matter of fact, import prices tacked on by 0.2% in April after an unrevised 0.6% ascend in March. Financial analysts had hopes import prices would rally by 0.7% last month.

    For the 12 months through April, import prices headed south by 0.2% having ascended by 0.1% in March.

    Prices of American Treasuries rallied following the publication of the data. Amerian stock index futures surged and the evergreen buck jumped versus a basket of currencies.

    Inflation could be spurred by the previous week's move by American leader to have levies lifted on $200 billion worth of Chinese exports to from 10% to 25%. Market experts estimate the latest tariffs could add up to two-tenths of a percentage point to inflation.

    In April, prices for imported fuels as well as lubricants headed north by 2.5% having rallied by up to 6.9% in the previous month.

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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    5 important events this week will bring us!

    More at: http://bit.ly/2YnIo3N

    13.05.2019

    British average earning index (Tue, 11:30 MT) – According to the forecasts, the indicator will reach 3.4%. If the actual figures are higher, the GBP will be supported.

    Canadian CPI (Wed, 15:30 MT) – Higher than expected level of consumer inflation will be positive for the loonie.

    US retail sales and core retail sales (Wed, 15:30 MT) – Analysts anticipate the headline retail sales to advance by 0.2%. As for its core level, it will likely increase by 0.7%. As usual, higher figures will be appreciated by the USD bulls.

    Australian jobs report (Thu, 4:30 MT) – The level of employment change is expected to rise by 15,200 jobs. At the same time, the level of the unemployment rate is forecast to remain at the same level of 5%. If the actual level of employment change is higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the expectations, the AUD will be supported.

    Speech by the BOC governor Stephen Poloz (Thu, 18:15 MT) – The Bank of Canada’s governor will be holding a press conference in Ottawa. He may provide some supportive comment for the Canadian dollar.

    Hot news:

    During the weekend, the US president Donald Trump continued to pressure China after the US raised tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods on Friday. He said that the deal would be far worse for China is his second term. The Chinese side said that it "deeply regrets" the US decision to hike tariffs and will apply countermeasures. As a result, the risky assets fell down. At the same time, the USD/CNH pair has jumped to its highest level since January. However, the trade negotiations keep going. The presidents of the two leading economies are expected to meet during the G20 summit, but now we may only wonder how many surprises the sides will bring to the market until then.

    The Saudi energy minister said that two of its vessels were targeted in an attack on Sunday.

    The ministers of the British Cabinet want the Prime Minister Theresa May to stop the cross-party talks and start indicative votes in the Parliament.

    The bullish market is confirmed: Bitcoin has risen above $7,000 during the weekend. The total market capitalization reached $200 billion. Analysts see one of the main reasons in Fidelity, the famous financial institution, buying and selling Bitcoin.



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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    European stocks decline in the face of trade tensions

    http://bit.ly/2VqZHUG

    09.05.2019

    On Thursday, European stocks headed south broadly due to the fact market participants had risky assets shunned, while willing to see whether China and America manage to dodge a trade conflict that would damage the world economy.

    Eventually, the pan-European STOXX 600 index had slumped by nearly 0.7%, hitting a fresh four-week minimum.

    On Wednesday, American leader told that China had the deal broken it had reached in trade negotiations with America, and vowed not to back down on slapping fresh levies on China’s goods.

    As the world's leading economies proceed with their two-day trade negotiations in Washington on Thursday, traders were willing to know if a last-minute truce could prevent a steep increase of levies on $200 billion worth of China’s exports on Friday.

    Over seven key sectors lost nearly 1%. Additionally, tariff-exposed auto shares went down by nearly 1.6%, while semiconductor shares lost ground too.

    Banco BPM, Italy's number three lender went down by 6% having posted a halving of loan-loss provisions for the first quarter.

    In addition to this, the country's leading financial institution by assets UniCredit went down even after it repeated its 2019 objectives and reported a net gain above analyst hopes.

    Among the top divers were stocks of ArcelorMittal after the world's number one steelmaker cut demand estimate for its major markets and told it was facing the tough challenges of lower steel prices as well as reduced consumption in the European Union.

    As for German wholesaler Metro, it headed south having posted another quarter of diving sales at its Russian business as well as its Real hypermarkets that the company is actually in the process of selling.

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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Rate cut by the RBNZ pulled the kiwi down

    More at: http://bit.ly/2LtTjXX

    08.05.2019

    During the early Asian trading hours, the Reserve bank of New Zealand surprisingly cut its interest rate from 1.75% to 1.5%. According to the words by the RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr, the bank is currently uncertain about the future path of the interest rates. One of the main reasons behind these uncertainties lie in the US-China trade war and lower figures for business sentiment and consumer spending.

    The kiwi plunged below the weekly pivot support at 0.6565 towards the next support at 0.6524. If bearish pressure continues, the next support will lie at 0.65. On the flipside, if the kiwi manages to recover, it will rise above the weekly pivot level at 0.6603. The next resistance is placed at 0.6644.

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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Turkish lira goes down

    More at: http://bit.ly/2WnTTHP

    07.05.2019

    Turkey is making its way towards another currency downtime, with the Turkish lira diving to its lowest value for almost a year after Turkey’s election authorities canceled the recent municipal election outcomes for Istanbul.

    The decision provoked immediate street riots in Turkey’s largest city against the cabinet of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and pushed the evergreen buck to 6.1976 lira in early trade on Tuesday. It appears to be the highest value since last September, when soaring dollar interest rates along with a heavy foreign debt repayment schedule threatened to heavily impact Turkey’s banking system.

    The major bank had to have interest rates raised steeply to defend the Turkish lira at the time, while the economic hardship since then made a contribution to Erdogan’s AK party losing control of the country’s three key cities in elections in March. What’s more, his critics currently accuse him of utilizing the state machinery to have a legitimate election overturned.

    As a matter of fact, the Turkish lira headed south by 2% reacting to the news and has slumped by 1.5% since then. Turkey’s currency was at 6.1707 versus the evergreen buck. For the year, it has rallied by 16.3% against the greenback. The given outcome makes it the worst performing asset of all G-20 currencies, excluding the Argentine peso.

    In addition to this, the Australian dollar rebounded steeply after the country’s major bank left its cash rate at 1.5%, thus disappointing many investors who had anticipated a rate cut.

    Gauging the greenback’s purchasing potential versus its main peers the USD index hit 97.155, sliding by 0.1%.

    Traders are still uncertain what follows from the American decision – whether the US would slap extra duties on Chinese goods or not.

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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Trading plan for May 6

    Check the pictures at: http://bit.ly/2WqKpM0

    06.05.2019

    Pay attention to the market sentiment today!

    During the Asian trading hours, the risk sentiment in the market was covered in red after the tweet by US president Donald Trump. He said that US tariffs on 200 billion of Chinese goods will go up from 10% to 25%. This news created rumors about the possible delay of the trade negotiations between the US and China and pulled the risk-weighted assets down. At the same time, the safe-haven Japanese yen gained significantly.

    Later, China expressed hopes that the negotiations will continue in Washington. The Chinese part confirmed the preparation of the delegation to the US for further talks. It helped the risk sentiment to recover a little bit. For how long, though?

    If Mr. Trump surprises us with more negative comments or China cancels its delegation for further talks on May 8, the risk aversion will appear and pull the risky assets down.


    On the daily chart of the AUD/USD pair, it has fallen below the weekly pivot support at 0.6980 but managed to recover towards the resistance at the weekly pivot at 0.7024. If the risk-off sentiment takes over the market, the pair will fall below the 0.6980 level towards the next support at 0.6940. If we look at indicators, Parabolic SAR shows the downward movement for the pair, ADX demonstrates that bearish pressure continues and RSI is placed close to the oversold zone. If it enters this zone and then leaves it, it will provide us a short-term buying opportunity.


    On the H4, the pair could not overcome the support at 0.6963 and formed an inverted hammer candlestick – a sign of a bullish reversal. At the moment the aussie is targeting the resistance at 0.7. If bulls break this level, the next key resistance will be placed at 0.7024. On the flipside, if the sellers take over the market, they will pull the pair to the support at the weekly pivot at 0.6980. The next support lies at 0.6963.

    USD/JPY

    The risk aversion resulted in the gap down day for the USD/JPY pair. It has even tested the ground below the weekly pivot support at 110.50. At the moment, USD/JPY is trading near the 100-day SMA and the resistance at the weekly pivot level at 110.79. If bulls are strong, they will break this level and the next resistances will be placed at 110.93 and 111.05. On the other hand, risk off sentiment will make the pair retest the 110.50 level. The next support will lie at 109.94. Parabolic SAR here demonstrates the downward movement, while ADX shows the strength of bears.


    Let’s look at the H4. The pair could not stick above the 110.79 level for too long as bears pulled it back to the support at 110.64. If the sentiment in the market is positive, USD/JPY will retest the resistance at 110.79. The next resistance in focus lies at 110.93. Alternatively, we will see a fall towards the support at 110.64. The break of this level will pull the pair lower to the support at 110.64.

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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Bitcoin overleaps $5,500

    Read more: https://fbs.com/analytics/news/bitco...yticsSignalsFX

    03.05.2019

    On Friday, key digital coins gained momentum in Asia, with Bitcoin rallying above the major mark $5,500. Facebook is reportedly looking for partners for its scheduled cryptocurrency payment service.

    Eventually, Bitcoin headed north by up to 6.08% coming up with a reading of $5,581.5, hitting a one-week maximum. The digital token rebounded to the $5,500 mark having lost its grip on it on April 24.

    In addition to this, Ethereum surged by 3.32% being worth $160.38, while XRP managed to tack on by up to 0.18% concluding the trading session at $0.30446. Besides this, Litecoinrose surged by nearly 7.23% reaching $74.698.

    The overall market capitalization went up further to $179.6 billion from yesterday’s reading of $175 million.

    The biggest news in the cryptocurrency community today had to do with Facebook as well as its cryptocurrency payment service, which is under development.

    The Wall Street Journal informed that the social media giant is negotiation with financial as well as e-commerce businesses, including MasterCard and Visa to back the payment service Project Libra.

    The project suggests launching a digital token, which would be backed by blockchain technology and also pegged to the evergreen buck. An upbeat way to promote its adoption is that Facebook users are able to acquire fractions of the token by simply viewing ads. Moreover, users of Facebook’s messaging application WhatsApp can also utilize this crypto token to transfer funds to one another.

    Moreover, an independent nonprofit institute, the Information Technology & Innovation Foundation came up with suggestions on how to regulate blockchain technology that attracted some attention among cryptocurrency traders.

    By the way, ITIF urged the policymakers to uphold such principles as technology neutrality as well as public-sector adoption.

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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Yellow metal inches down on potential trade agreement

    More at: http://bit.ly/2vB95p7

    02.05.2019

    On Thursday, gold headed south, just a day after the major US bank stood pat on monetary policy and also hinted that interest rates would probably stand still for a longer period.

    On the Comex exchange, June delivery gold futures headed south by about 0.7% concluding the trading session at $1,275.15 an ounce.

    In a news conference, which followed Fed gathering, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told that Fed stance is quite adequate at the moment and they don’t see any reasons to move in either direction.

    As for trade volumes, they were still thin due to the fact, financial markets in China and Japan were unavailable because of holidays.

    Moving in directions opposite to the yellow commodity and estimating the purchasing power of the greenback versus a number of its main rivals the USD index headed south by 0.1% ending up with 97.338.

    In addition to this, a report posted by CNBC, which came up with a suggestion that China and the United States might announce a trade agreement next Friday also underpinned risk sentiment and put pressure on the yellow metal.

    Besides this, another round of trade negotiations between China and the United States wrapped up in China’s capital on Wednesday with the American Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin calling those meetings quite fruitful.

    Next week the everlasting trade talks will proceed in Washington. As follows from a number of anonymous sources, the two leading economies might manage to come to a compromise already by next Friday.

    In addition to this, the evergreen buck tacked on a bit versus the Japanese yen, and also dived a bit against the New Zealand and Australian dollars.

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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    American futures rally as traders cheer Apple’s outcomes

    More at: http://bit.ly/2IU4d78

    01.05.2019

    On Wednesday, American stock index futures went up, pointing to a firm start for Wall Street due to the fact that Apple’s stellar outcomes and forecast soothed worries about the decelerating surge in corporate gains.

    Stocks of the iPhone maker leapt by 5.8% right after it told that sales in China were stabilizing and also touted how soaring demand for its services as well as accessories helped to compensate a record dive in iPhone profit.

    Besides this, the company also uncovered plans for another $75 billion share buyback and had its cash dividend ramped up by 5%.

    On Tuesday, the S&P 500 index demonstrated another record maximum as well as its best four-month surge for almost nine years.

    Experts are quite optimistic on first-quarter earnings surge and expect a 0.7% leap in contrast with a 2% dive estimated at the beginning of April.

    Aside from a mostly better-than-anticipated earnings season, recent profits in stocks have also been driven by upbeat economic reports, a dovish Fed as well as hints of progress in US-China trade negotiations.

    Additionally, the major US bank, which will conclude its two-day gathering later in the day, is generally anticipated to keep borrowing costs intact and stick with a cautious monetary policy stance, notwithstanding Donald Trump's call to decrease interest rates.

    ET, Dow e-minis ascended by 0.27%. As for S&P 500 e-minis, it soared by 0.29%, while Nasdaq 100 e-minis rallied by 0.66%.

    Among other shares, Advanced Micro Devices Inc headed north by 5.1% because the chipmaker's quarterly gain beat Wall Street estimates as it managed to sell more chips in servers and data centers. Other chip stocks rallied too, with Micron Technology Inc, Qualcomm, and Nvidia Corp soaring 1%-1.6%.

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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    Evergreen buck goes down for the third day

    More at: http://bit.ly/2UQimDS

    30.04.2019

    On Tuesday, the evergreen buck went down versus key counterparts, slumping for a third day in a row because signs of decelerating inflation cemented market hopes that the Fed will have its rates cut in 2019.

    Gauging the greenback’s purchasing power against its primary peers the USD index headed south by about 0.3% showing 97.34.

    On Tuesday, policymakers started a two-day gathering, widely anticipated to bring no changes to interest rates when the decision is revealed a day later.

    In 2019, the major US bank changed its tune because fears over global surge as well as poor inflation made it retreat from previous estimates that it would lift rates twice this year and also be patient enough with further tightening.

    However, financial markets have gone further, pricing in over a 60% likelihood that the major US bank will have interest rates cut in December.

    Last Friday, the evergreen buck started its current stretch of dives against the backdrop of signs of decreasing price pressures. Additionally, inflation data uncovered with first-quarter surge numbers the previous week as well as the core personal consumption expenditures price index for March have seen the greenback rebound from near two-year maximums.

    The currency pair rallied versus the evergreen buck because better-than-anticipated economic surge in the euro zone backed the euro.

    Furthermore, cable was boosted on reports that cross-party negotiations between ruling Conservatives as well as the opposition Labour Party over Brexit, and Britain’s departure from the EU is demonstrating decent progress.

    Tokyo markets are unavailable this week for a holiday that experts tell exacerbate volatility because of the lack of liquidity, although the Japanese yen still managed to go up to three-week maximums.

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  • MartinWilliams
    replied
    5 important events this week will bring us!

    More at: http://bit.ly/2UZYYJE

    29.04.2019

    Canadian GDP growth (Tue, 15:30 MT) – If the indicator outperforms the forecasts, the loonie will get boosted.

    Jobs data for New Zealand (Wed, 01:45 MT) – Analysts anticipate the level of employment change to increase by 0.5%. As for the unemployment rate, it is projected to decline to 4.2%. Higher figures for the employment change and lower for the unemployment rate will be positive for the NZD.

    FOMC statement (Wed, 21:00 MT) – The Federal Reserve will keep its interest rate unchanged at 2.5%. Traders need to pay attention to the tone of the statement and comments by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell. If they are hawkish, the USD will be supported.

    BOE monetary policy summary (Thu, 14:00 MT) – The Bank of England’s future steps have been covered with the Brexit fog after the previous meeting, that is why any supportive comments by the BOE governor will be good for the GBP.

    NFP (Fri, 15:30 MT) - The most anticipated indicator will advance by 181 thousand payrolls, according to forecasts. If the actual level is higher, the USD will rise.

    Hot topics:

    The US-China trade talks will continue this week on April 30 in Beijing. According to the US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, the sides are heading close to the final agreement. However, the key issues including intellectual property and forced technology transfer are still unresolved. Positive progress in these negotiations will increase the risk-on sentiment in the market.

    Oil fell after the demand of US president Donald Trump to raise the output to soften the impact of the American sanctions against Iran.

    Theresa May tries to find a way to secure the Brexit deal before the EU elections on May 23. Reportedly, the government is not ready to have another vote for the deal in Parliament this week.



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