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  • Neptune
    started a topic Safe traders more risky than risky ones?

    Safe traders more risky than risky ones?

    When it comes to copying a signal I often like to see one making at least 10% per month with no losses on a month to month basis. From being a part of watching other signals both on and away from this site I have noticed that at any time your account could be blown overnight or over a week.

    So when I go for a signal lets say I put in $10,000. My hope is within 1 year maximum that $10,000 or whatever value I put in will be doubled so I can withdraw my initial capital and have in my eyes "no risk" or no loss of money I have earned myself.

    At any point in that year though all the money could disappear forever, I've seen it happen! That's why the moment you can withdraw your initial deposit I personally would do so. So when I look at a signal I think "How many months will it be before I can withdraw my initial deposit?" before anything else. The second thing I look at is the max historical drawdown.

    The issue I find with a "safe" trader only making 1% per month is that they can still lose money. Thats why I feel safer with a risky trader as I want my real money out of the system as fast as possible because it seems that one day all signals eventually take a huge loss and I don't want my money in there when that happens.

    My question to you guys is: Would you feel safer with a trader that makes 10% per month with a max drawdown of 30% or safer with a trader that makes 1% per month with a 5% max drawdown? Which trader would you choose to follow out of the two?

    I would go with the 10% per month trader since I want my money out of there as fast as possible. I've seen a trader called A75 who made around 20% a month for 2 years straight then blew it over a one week period. A similar situation has happened with Day Fox on this site so it's definitly something that can happen.

  • Mahbub Kafi
    replied
    There is nothing like safe in Forex! We believe probability not certainity! That means, there is nothing like 100% in Forex business! I am sure, you have such a bad experience to face SL point even though; you were close to TP on that trade! So, traders need to use same risk reward ratio in their trading!

    Leave a comment:


  • fos4x
    replied
    Agree. Money management is the key to winning in trading. Winners are those who can stay in the market the longest and gain more than they lose.



    Leave a comment:


  • Pie
    replied
    I know of some traders that enter the market many times with a tight SL but they let the winners run! So you really got to see the method the person is trading. If you want many pips gain, you may have to do that.

    Take a look at the below link, these are for patient people. Can you let 40 trades go SL with 5 pips until you hit home run (a trade that can 10* your account), money mgt is key here.

    http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=514127

    I guess many times all of us thought we know best, but if you really study, learn and gain knowledge..you will see that we actually do not know much. Many times, what we say are just a point of view, another way of earning profit etc

    I m not saying anyone or whatsoever, just to everyone....open our eyes.
    Last edited by Pie ; 12-08-2014, 08:28 AM.

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  • Pie
    replied
    whatever it is, one has different ways of choosing a signal provider. Whether he likes to emphasis on dd or risk or roi or gain, it is his personal view.

    All have to agree to disagree. End of the day, you sign up for a signal provider because you like what you see in the fx book live and thus signed up. You set your own max risk dd (usually as suggested by the vendor) and go for it.

    For example Viper, I love Viper but some may not like him because of his RR. so in many ways, each to his own.

    Leave a comment:


  • nwboater
    replied
    p3t3rjj - I really don't want to further fan the flames here, but............ I think that calling Prof's posting BS without any evidence is way over the top and as far as I can tell totally undeserved. You have some interesting points to make as always, but you totally negate any value they may have with your accusatory tone.

    Thus far Prof has handled himself in a very gentleman like manner and I believe until there is some evidence of wrongdoing he should be treated likewise.

    Cheers,
    Rod

    Leave a comment:


  • p3t3rjj
    replied
    Originally posted by pearcey2 View Post
    Funny thing is "in the end I'm usually right" is about the most credible bit of evidence you've provided. And its flaky at best. Your arrogance and patronizing tone pretty much undermines your every argument
    My arrogance is only surpassed by my brilliance - Come on the chat, I be there London hours Tue to Thursday. Its a lot of fun.

    Leave a comment:


  • pearcey2
    replied
    Originally posted by p3t3rjj View Post
    Ok Percy, we will just agree to disagree. Pointless filling this topic that was useful with more BS. But as you will notice with most of these topics in the end I am usually right.
    Funny thing is "in the end I'm usually right" is about the most credible bit of evidence you've provided. And its flaky at best. Your arrogance and patronizing tone pretty much undermines your every argument

    Leave a comment:


  • p3t3rjj
    replied
    Originally posted by pearcey2 View Post
    Lol there's nothing in my post that not "chilled" I'm more than functional in the mornings and I completely get it

    Still doesn't change the fact that you rip into a trader simply because he won't show you if he has any more money backing him and say he's being overly sensitive when he has every right to defend himself.

    Reread my post peter. You'll get it
    Ok Percy, we will just agree to disagree. Pointless filling this topic that was useful with more BS. But as you will notice with most of these topics in the end I am usually right.

    Leave a comment:


  • pearcey2
    replied
    Originally posted by p3t3rjj View Post
    Chill Percy, its 7am in Melbourne. Go grab a coffee then come back and reread what I wrote. You'll get it.
    Lol there's nothing in my post that not "chilled" I'm more than functional in the mornings and I completely get it

    Still doesn't change the fact that you rip into a trader simply because he won't show you if he has any more money backing him and say he's being overly sensitive when he has every right to defend himself.

    Reread my post peter. You'll get it

    Leave a comment:


  • p3t3rjj
    replied
    Originally posted by ProfBernardo View Post
    You say there is no aggression while at the same time claiming someone is telling BS. I mean... come on

    Tried to respond on your points, but it seems you wonīt be satisfied until there is a larger account in place and/or enough history in public. Chances are good that you will see both within the next year.
    Sounds fantastic, but how about we stay on topic

    Leave a comment:


  • p3t3rjj
    replied
    Originally posted by pearcey2 View Post
    A but rich calling him "sensitive" then saying everything he posts is "BS" don't you think? If I were a vendor I'd take offense as well as should anyone.

    Whether ASTA has institutional backing or it is a guy in his mums basement as no doubt I'm sure you've seen from your extensive experience on this site, a huge trading account and a long history don't always amount to a safe and reliable signal. If you subscribed to every signal which met that criteria you'd have a very empty bank account by now.

    If you don't like his signal that's cool. But don't abuse him and wonder why he chooses to defend himself. As it is I think his posts have been quite reasonable given the ease with which an anonymous user can attempt to pull his system apart with no evidence for support.

    How can you say he wasn't the focus of the conversation when you clearly referenced his signal? How can you reference this signal in the "how to spot a risky signal" thread when the system unlike many other signals cuts losers quickly and always holds open profitable positions?
    Chill Percy, its 7am in Melbourne. Go grab a coffee then come back and reread what I wrote. You'll get it.

    Leave a comment:


  • pearcey2
    replied
    Originally posted by p3t3rjj View Post
    Wow the mangina's are sensitive around here. As I said it was my opinion on how to spot a system that is risky, and you were top of the forum post list at that moment, so clicked on you and used your BS as an example. There is no escalation or aggression here, you were not the focus of the conversation. I really don't care what you do, you were just a suitable example. Your response just proves the point even further, and would be a good lesson for someone new to sniff it out.

    Whatever your explanation is for the small account is nothing we haven't heard before here, same same but different. But in reality its usually some guy in hes moms basement trading hes unemployment cheque referring to himself as WE. You don't need myfxbook a few screenshots would help. And poor old Jeff gets himself compared to every new kid on the block, comparing their 5 minutes of trading history to hes 19 months. Sure he didn't publicly advertise hes history that I know of. But dropping 100k from day one said a hell of alot.

    But again the conversation is not about you, you were just a convenient example.
    A but rich calling him "sensitive" then saying everything he posts is "BS" don't you think? If I were a vendor I'd take offense as well as should anyone.

    Whether ASTA has institutional backing or it is a guy in his mums basement as no doubt I'm sure you've seen from your extensive experience on this site, a huge trading account and a long history don't always amount to a safe and reliable signal. If you subscribed to every signal which met that criteria you'd have a very empty bank account by now.

    If you don't like his signal that's cool. But don't abuse him and wonder why he chooses to defend himself. As it is I think his posts have been quite reasonable given the ease with which an anonymous user can attempt to pull his system apart with no evidence for support.

    How can you say he wasn't the focus of the conversation when you clearly referenced his signal? How can you reference this signal in the "how to spot a risky signal" thread when the system unlike many other signals cuts losers quickly and always holds open profitable positions?

    Leave a comment:


  • ProfBernardo
    replied
    You say there is no aggression while at the same time claiming someone is telling BS. I mean... come on

    Tried to respond on your points, but it seems you wonīt be satisfied until there is a larger account in place and/or enough history in public. Chances are good that you will see both within the next year.

    Leave a comment:


  • p3t3rjj
    replied
    Wow the mangina's are sensitive around here. As I said it was my opinion on how to spot a system that is risky, and you were top of the forum post list at that moment, so clicked on you and used your BS as an example. There is no escalation or aggression here, you were not the focus of the conversation. I really don't care what you do, you were just a suitable example. Your response just proves the point even further, and would be a good lesson for someone new to sniff it out.

    Whatever your explanation is for the small account is nothing we haven't heard before here, same same but different. But in reality its usually some guy in hes moms basement trading hes unemployment cheque referring to himself as WE. You don't need myfxbook a few screenshots would help. And poor old Jeff gets himself compared to every new kid on the block, comparing their 5 minutes of trading history to hes 19 months. Sure he didn't publicly advertise hes history that I know of. But dropping 100k from day one said a hell of alot.

    But again the conversation is not about you, you were just a convenient example.

    Originally posted by ProfBernardo View Post
    That escalated quickly. Kind of thought this would happen, but i will respond once again to your statement and will then stay away from this topic. Might be better, because otherwise it just ends in a conflict. Will do my best to go into all points you mentioned. First of all: Claiming somebody is telling bullshit is harsh and you be supported with a proof. Additionally i have the experience that people acting aggressive is because they try to hide something. So in no way will i offend anyone nor respond in an unprofessional manner. I say this because forums and actually any written word lacks of additional information source like the sound of a voice or emotions through the face. That could lead to some statements coming through differently as they are intended. So if you feel i am attacking you in any part of my text, please take the time and drop me a message, because i can assure you that is not the intention of my post

    I will go through your passages one after another. That should make my response easier to understand.

    Your first passage is perfectly in line with my own view. To validate a trader you must not look only at returns or DD, but the way the trader presents himself. Usually non-helpful people have a reason for being that way. Mostly they have to hide something and/or want to force you into something (and thats usually not as good as advertised).

    Second passage: Of course there is a function to export history and complete account details. The point is that you can not hook these up to myfxbook, so there is no way to both hide critical personal data (like the account number) while at the same time offer a verification. Do you think Jeff/Viper had no history or personal accounts to show when he started to offer his skills? Of course he did, but you havenīt seen any of his private accounts nor history besides the account set up specifically for the signal service. The system has now about 6 months of history. Pretty new, but history only comes with time. I am here to stay.

    Reason the account size is that low can be read in my own ASTA thread. It doesnīt make any financial sense to leave money in an account that is performing worse than the main prop accounts. Wonīt describe it here a second time, as that would make this post too long. Can send you a link to the post i am referring to if you like (just drop me a private message on this forum).

    I am not an institutional level guy, my team is. I am only a small part of it and actually the one with least funds. Thats why i am looking into the retail section and not the others (who are even not very confident with the potential of a true business case in the retail sector).

    What is mean by month to month consistency is that some followers here are looking for a trader that can generate a positive return every single month. Thats what i think is not possible. We canīt do that, nor have i seen a single person that is able to do that either. There have to be some month where your equity(!) turns out lower than the month before. Otherwise you are playing with the tricks i have stated. Yearly consistency is a very different animal and that of course is mandatory to become profitable. But if you are really referring to your monthly consistency being able to increase your equity every single month, then you are a blessed man. I am not talking of the consistency you can see from the signal guys here. Of course they are consistent, but not in that extreme scenario i wanted to underline. Hope that it now is clear that with that "monthly consistency" i mean being profitable on equity every month.
    Regarding the commission: It is still irrelevant. Why do you care about commissions? What you are looking to is maximizing your net profit. When you want to decrease
    commission, you can just stop trading. That would bring the commission down to zero Just throwing out extreme examples, but take a look at it from a different perspective. What are your main interests when looking on the account? Is it the amount of trades, the traded pairs, the amount of commissions or is it the net (!) return of your account? Not talking of the gross return, as that does not reflect what is left in your pocket. My investors profits have not been halved. Following from day 1 they would sit at 30% net return.

    Thanks for liking my system and i appreciate that you are analyzing it/doing due dilligance. I will be around by Easter next year, as confidence in a signal provider grows with ongoing public history and a guy behind it for questions. I think people will notice that i am not here to create a hype or make a fast buck to disappear at the first sight. But that takes time and i am ok with that. Have stated some of these information in my thread, so just leaving a quick summary hear: Actually we are looking into hooking up a seriously sized account for the signal service. Something more common for real world investments (>$50k). Question is how many subscribers are willing to use their VIP accounts for following a signal service without too much history. So that i something we might do when we have passed 12 months of public history and will then investigate with Nick for being hosted as an official Forexsignals signal provider.

    Will put that discussion to rest now, because i donīt want to sound like i am arguing for advertising purposes. As you have said, trading will take the talking for itself


    Wish you all a nice sunday.

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