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  • Forex Setups

    Thought I would open a topic on Forex setups

  • #2
    Very nice idea RT .... count me in :-)

    Comment


    • #3
      EURAUD H4 Black Swan

      H4 trade setup Black Swan with divergence long term trade (at least a week)

      Please see chart
      Attached Files

      Comment


      • #4
        lol, just posted a chart in a different section !! will probably put it in here next time :-)

        Comment


        • #5
          Is it time to get long EURUSD?

          EURUSD is trying to chop its way through some serious support.

          Will it make it through or is it time to 'Buy for July'?

          Great Risk/Reward on the buy side IMO. Wait for some confirmation price action on the 15.

          eurusd-sbh4.png

          Comment


          • #6
            Anyone else thinking the EURUSD now looks so obviously short.. its time to turn around and seriously disappoint?

            Can't help think this has a great chance to play out with a hold of the channel. It spiked through this morning on some Portuguese 'No' News but pulling back in. Still waiting for price action to confirm!

            USDJPY living below 100 may help the case.

            eurusd-sbh4.png

            Comment


            • #7
              With ya Phillip

              Hey Phillip!

              A quick look at the 4 hr and I can see your reason (and FX AMP's reason) for being long or considering being long EURUSD.

              EU has almost to the pip found a short term base at 100% retrace of the move up from mid-May. Given that the USD (red strength meter) is in oversold territory on the Strength Meter and really only has one place to go...and the EUR (blue strength meter) is moving up towards 50, this looks like a very good risk/reward set up.

              Entering EURUSD long where it sits now and setting your stop 20 pips below the psych level 1.28 (about a 50 pips stop) gives a very nice risk to reward:

              23.6% = 1.2954
              38.2% = 1.3043
              50% = 1.3115
              61.8% = 1.3187

              So you looking at a very realistic 100-275 pip+ payoff on a 50 or so pip risk at current levels.

              EUE.jpgEUU.jpg

              I'd love to see this play out this way...that will take some of this unnecessary heat off Nick...;-) Given that AMP is well within risk parameters, when you look at reward potential I don't see why everyone is so bent out of shape. Sure its a deviation of what has been "normal", but set-ups like this don't come along that often. I just hope AMP does not close out early to appease the crowd, only to see this go in his direction later.

              Anyhow...that's my take on it.

              Happy Trading!

              Joe
              "The trend is your friend - until it bends at the end"

              Comment


              • #8
                Gaps that need to be filled

                A few currencies gapped up against JPY Friday on the 15 min charts...usually these gaps will fill within a session.

                We have gaps on EURJPY, CHFJPY and GBPJPY....keep an eye on them for a short play to fill those gaps. JPY strength (far left chart, purple SM) going into Fridays close looks good to buy JPY.

                JAPGAP.jpg

                You heard it here first...;-)
                "The trend is your friend - until it bends at the end"

                Comment


                • #9
                  Hey Joe,

                  The ideal scenario didn't materialise with the ECB & NFP double dagger. We didn't get the break above small channel so we we're left waiting.. sigh!

                  As much as I would have loved to see that large channel hold, as it would have been a great trade for the month. We now have another less attractive but equally as valid setup from an R/R perspective. New trading week sitting on a 3rd touch of a trend line?!

                  We will surely respect it initially. Patiently waiting to see what this does next.

                  eurusd-sbdaily.png
                  Last edited by phillip; 07-08-2013, 11:29 AM.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by TraderFX65 View Post
                    A few currencies gapped up against JPY Friday on the 15 min charts...usually these gaps will fill within a session.

                    We have gaps on EURJPY, CHFJPY and GBPJPY....keep an eye on them for a short play to fill those gaps. JPY strength (far left chart, purple SM) going into Fridays close looks good to buy JPY.

                    [ATTACH=CONFIG]103[/ATTACH]

                    You heard it here first...;-)
                    The old Gap theory. Seen that happen time and time again but never tried to play. Its one of those things that looks 'too' obvious.

                    Its hard to get a good R/R and stop for them I think.

                    What is your approach to playing them?

                    Phil

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by phillip View Post
                      The old Gap theory. Seen that happen time and time again but never tried to play. Its one of those things that looks 'too' obvious.

                      Its hard to get a good R/R and stop for them I think.

                      What is your approach to playing them?

                      Phil
                      I'll play the gaps the same as my normal trades...if everything lines up I'll have the gap as a possible target.

                      Hey Joe,

                      The ideal scenario didn't materialise with the ECB & NFP double dagger. We didn't get the break above small channel so we we're left waiting.. sigh!

                      As much as I would have loved to see that large channel hold, as it would have been a great trade for the month. We now have another less attractive but equally as valid setup from an R/R perspective. New trading week sitting on a 3rd touch of a trend line?!

                      We will surely respect it initially. Patiently waiting to see what this does next.
                      EURUSD will require patience...USD has been persistently strong...I've been expecting the USD to break down on the longer term charts but it just keeps inexplicably hanging around...I understand the whole "taper" thing giving a risk off scenario, but IMO there are better currencies than the watered-down USD to flock too...namely AUD, which no longer has that strong correlation to the Dow...but we have to let the market tell us, we cant tell the market...;-)
                      "The trend is your friend - until it bends at the end"

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by TraderFX65 View Post
                        EURUSD will require patience...USD has been persistently strong...I've been expecting the USD to break down on the longer term charts but it just keeps inexplicably hanging around...I understand the whole "taper" thing giving a risk off scenario, but IMO there are better currencies than the watered-down USD to flock too...namely AUD, which no longer has that strong correlation to the Dow...but we have to let the market tell us, we cant tell the market...;-)
                        It is fascinating the break down in correlations. I grew up in this game (all 4 years) were everything moved in a 'sort of' logical harmony!

                        Your comment about letting the market tell us brings back memories of when I started trading. I used to follow a guy on YouTube. Funny man, bit mad but was always calling for the resumption of Stocks up, USD up. He has dropped off the scene through lack of respect for his mad calls and no customers I guess.

                        Its a good reminder to trade what you see not what you want to see for sure.. the market will stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent!

                        I've clearly haven't learnt as I'm still trying to go against the grain ref the USD but I still believe we are at a good place to try.

                        EURUSD update. Still in no man's land! Trapped between weekly and daily pivot.

                        Break above 1.3 and retest long for sure. Below 1.28 evacuate the dance floor!

                        eurusd-sbh4.pngeurusd-sbdaily.png

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Ha!

                          Yeah I took a nice scalp from 2900 last night short, then tried to jump on the EURUSD long bandwagon at 2800...God that was so dumb looking it in hindsight..gave back my scalp +50 or so more....I had no signal at all to buy EUR...just thought EUR "had" to bounce at 2800...lol!
                          "The trend is your friend - until it bends at the end"

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            The EURUSD chart is officially to ugly to even look at anymore! I've no interest in the downside as there is no way to play it with good RR.

                            So having a look around and NZDUSD is catching my eye. FOMC later could be the catalyst for this wedge to break. Break and retest could be a nice trade opportunity to the long side.

                            nzdusd-sbh4.pngnzdusd-sbdaily.png

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Cheers Mr Bernake!

                              Finally something to play from a technical perspective on the NZDUSD chart from yesterday.

                              We have broke the wedge to the upside and are retesting the trendline. Daily and Monthly support in the same area. Also the Daily pivot is higher than yesterday.

                              Its almost too perfect!
                              Attached Files
                              Last edited by phillip; 07-11-2013, 10:03 AM.

                              Comment

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