Thought I would open a topic on Forex setups
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Forex Setups
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Is it time to get long EURUSD?
EURUSD is trying to chop its way through some serious support.
Will it make it through or is it time to 'Buy for July'?
Great Risk/Reward on the buy side IMO. Wait for some confirmation price action on the 15.
eurusd-sbh4.png
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Anyone else thinking the EURUSD now looks so obviously short.. its time to turn around and seriously disappoint?
Can't help think this has a great chance to play out with a hold of the channel. It spiked through this morning on some Portuguese 'No' News but pulling back in. Still waiting for price action to confirm!
USDJPY living below 100 may help the case.
eurusd-sbh4.png
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With ya Phillip
Hey Phillip!
A quick look at the 4 hr and I can see your reason (and FX AMP's reason) for being long or considering being long EURUSD.
EU has almost to the pip found a short term base at 100% retrace of the move up from mid-May. Given that the USD (red strength meter) is in oversold territory on the Strength Meter and really only has one place to go...and the EUR (blue strength meter) is moving up towards 50, this looks like a very good risk/reward set up.
Entering EURUSD long where it sits now and setting your stop 20 pips below the psych level 1.28 (about a 50 pips stop) gives a very nice risk to reward:
23.6% = 1.2954
38.2% = 1.3043
50% = 1.3115
61.8% = 1.3187
So you looking at a very realistic 100-275 pip+ payoff on a 50 or so pip risk at current levels.
EUE.jpgEUU.jpg
I'd love to see this play out this way...that will take some of this unnecessary heat off Nick...;-) Given that AMP is well within risk parameters, when you look at reward potential I don't see why everyone is so bent out of shape. Sure its a deviation of what has been "normal", but set-ups like this don't come along that often. I just hope AMP does not close out early to appease the crowd, only to see this go in his direction later.
Anyhow...that's my take on it.
Happy Trading!
Joe
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Gaps that need to be filled
A few currencies gapped up against JPY Friday on the 15 min charts...usually these gaps will fill within a session.
We have gaps on EURJPY, CHFJPY and GBPJPY....keep an eye on them for a short play to fill those gaps. JPY strength (far left chart, purple SM) going into Fridays close looks good to buy JPY.
JAPGAP.jpg
You heard it here first...;-)
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Hey Joe,
The ideal scenario didn't materialise with the ECB & NFP double dagger. We didn't get the break above small channel so we we're left waiting.. sigh!
As much as I would have loved to see that large channel hold, as it would have been a great trade for the month. We now have another less attractive but equally as valid setup from an R/R perspective. New trading week sitting on a 3rd touch of a trend line?!
We will surely respect it initially. Patiently waiting to see what this does next.
eurusd-sbdaily.pngLast edited by phillip; 07-08-2013, 11:29 AM.
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Originally posted by TraderFX65 View PostA few currencies gapped up against JPY Friday on the 15 min charts...usually these gaps will fill within a session.
We have gaps on EURJPY, CHFJPY and GBPJPY....keep an eye on them for a short play to fill those gaps. JPY strength (far left chart, purple SM) going into Fridays close looks good to buy JPY.
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You heard it here first...;-)
Its hard to get a good R/R and stop for them I think.
What is your approach to playing them?
Phil
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Originally posted by phillip View PostThe old Gap theory. Seen that happen time and time again but never tried to play. Its one of those things that looks 'too' obvious.
Its hard to get a good R/R and stop for them I think.
What is your approach to playing them?
Phil
Hey Joe,
The ideal scenario didn't materialise with the ECB & NFP double dagger. We didn't get the break above small channel so we we're left waiting.. sigh!
As much as I would have loved to see that large channel hold, as it would have been a great trade for the month. We now have another less attractive but equally as valid setup from an R/R perspective. New trading week sitting on a 3rd touch of a trend line?!
We will surely respect it initially. Patiently waiting to see what this does next.
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Originally posted by TraderFX65 View PostEURUSD will require patience...USD has been persistently strong...I've been expecting the USD to break down on the longer term charts but it just keeps inexplicably hanging around...I understand the whole "taper" thing giving a risk off scenario, but IMO there are better currencies than the watered-down USD to flock too...namely AUD, which no longer has that strong correlation to the Dow...but we have to let the market tell us, we cant tell the market...;-)
Your comment about letting the market tell us brings back memories of when I started trading. I used to follow a guy on YouTube. Funny man, bit mad but was always calling for the resumption of Stocks up, USD up. He has dropped off the scene through lack of respect for his mad calls and no customers I guess.
Its a good reminder to trade what you see not what you want to see for sure.. the market will stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent!
I've clearly haven't learnt as I'm still trying to go against the grain ref the USD but I still believe we are at a good place to try.
EURUSD update. Still in no man's land! Trapped between weekly and daily pivot.
Break above 1.3 and retest long for sure. Below 1.28 evacuate the dance floor!
eurusd-sbh4.pngeurusd-sbdaily.png
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The EURUSD chart is officially to ugly to even look at anymore! I've no interest in the downside as there is no way to play it with good RR.
So having a look around and NZDUSD is catching my eye. FOMC later could be the catalyst for this wedge to break. Break and retest could be a nice trade opportunity to the long side.
nzdusd-sbh4.pngnzdusd-sbdaily.png
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Cheers Mr Bernake!
Finally something to play from a technical perspective on the NZDUSD chart from yesterday.
We have broke the wedge to the upside and are retesting the trendline. Daily and Monthly support in the same area. Also the Daily pivot is higher than yesterday.
Its almost too perfect!Last edited by phillip; 07-11-2013, 10:03 AM.
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