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  • phillip
    replied
    EURJPY is at an interesting cross roads. Long term trend line under threat.

    This is the 4th attempt to break it (or bounce of it), so too late to play the bounces for anything more than a scalp IMO.

    Another pair to watch for a break out.. the list grows!

    eurjpy-sbdaily.png

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  • phillip
    replied
    This market still can't muster anything significant. Starting to wish I looked at Ranges more, as its been easy pickings.

    The AUSUSD is slowly but surely trying to turn its ass around. 2 steps forward 5 steps back though, grr.

    Potential Inverse Head and Shoulders to add to the Doji of 2 weeks ago. The wait continues for a break higher...

    audusd-sbweekly.pngaudusd-sbh4.png

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  • phillip
    replied
    Originally posted by phillip View Post
    Well it was too perfect. AUD and NZD are officially too sick to even react to a nice technical setup. There wasn't even a hint of a higher low on the 15 minute chart and it just fell straight through. The wait continues.

    The evidence is building though for the recovery rally IMO in these 2. AUDUSD has made a distinct weekly doji, classic sign of an exhausted move. The wait continues.. zzzzz

    Ps this market is boring

    [ATTACH=CONFIG]133[/ATTACH][ATTACH=CONFIG]134[/ATTACH]
    That Doji played nice! Near 200 pip rally off it. Epic move in this market.

    audusd-sbweekly.png
    Last edited by phillip; 07-17-2013, 03:26 PM.

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  • Turtle Forex
    replied
    They will want to puff AUD a little bit before RBA on Aug 6...

    It's anyone guess as to whether or not a the impending 25bp cash rate cut is already priced in or not. But we know what "makes sense" is not always the way the market reacts either.

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  • phillip
    replied
    Originally posted by phillip View Post
    Cheers Mr Bernake!

    Finally something to play from a technical perspective on the NZDUSD chart from yesterday.

    We have broke the wedge to the upside and are retesting the trendline. Daily and Monthly support in the same area. Also the Daily pivot is higher than yesterday.

    Its almost too perfect!
    Well it was too perfect. AUD and NZD are officially too sick to even react to a nice technical setup. There wasn't even a hint of a higher low on the 15 minute chart and it just fell straight through. The wait continues.

    The evidence is building though for the recovery rally IMO in these 2. AUDUSD has made a distinct weekly doji, classic sign of an exhausted move. The wait continues.. zzzzz

    Ps this market is boring

    audusd-sbweekly.pngaudusd-sbdaily.png

    Leave a comment:


  • phillip
    replied
    Originally posted by Potter View Post
    Trade update for above: Hit the T1 @ 1.4977, but I didnt enter as it was too much risk for me
    Good discipline to sit on your hands when the risk wasn't on your side. What indicator is that you use? Is it your own? The image is a bit hard to see the detail.

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  • Potter
    replied
    Trade update for above: Hit the T1 @ 1.4977, but I didnt enter as it was too much risk for me

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  • Potter
    replied
    if you are into harmonics we have a bat here on the Geppy. See how it reversed in the PRZ (potential reversal zone). I might be a seller tho if it gets to the top of that channel as it is 2/3s up at the mo (not the best trade in the world, but its all I'm looking at until the US session overlap)

    geppy bat.jpg

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  • phillip
    replied
    Cheers Mr Bernake!

    Finally something to play from a technical perspective on the NZDUSD chart from yesterday.

    We have broke the wedge to the upside and are retesting the trendline. Daily and Monthly support in the same area. Also the Daily pivot is higher than yesterday.

    Its almost too perfect!
    Attached Files
    Last edited by phillip; 07-11-2013, 10:03 AM.

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  • phillip
    replied
    The EURUSD chart is officially to ugly to even look at anymore! I've no interest in the downside as there is no way to play it with good RR.

    So having a look around and NZDUSD is catching my eye. FOMC later could be the catalyst for this wedge to break. Break and retest could be a nice trade opportunity to the long side.

    nzdusd-sbh4.pngnzdusd-sbdaily.png

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  • Turtle Forex
    replied
    Ha!

    Yeah I took a nice scalp from 2900 last night short, then tried to jump on the EURUSD long bandwagon at 2800...God that was so dumb looking it in hindsight..gave back my scalp +50 or so more....I had no signal at all to buy EUR...just thought EUR "had" to bounce at 2800...lol!

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  • phillip
    replied
    Originally posted by TraderFX65 View Post
    EURUSD will require patience...USD has been persistently strong...I've been expecting the USD to break down on the longer term charts but it just keeps inexplicably hanging around...I understand the whole "taper" thing giving a risk off scenario, but IMO there are better currencies than the watered-down USD to flock too...namely AUD, which no longer has that strong correlation to the Dow...but we have to let the market tell us, we cant tell the market...;-)
    It is fascinating the break down in correlations. I grew up in this game (all 4 years) were everything moved in a 'sort of' logical harmony!

    Your comment about letting the market tell us brings back memories of when I started trading. I used to follow a guy on YouTube. Funny man, bit mad but was always calling for the resumption of Stocks up, USD up. He has dropped off the scene through lack of respect for his mad calls and no customers I guess.

    Its a good reminder to trade what you see not what you want to see for sure.. the market will stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent!

    I've clearly haven't learnt as I'm still trying to go against the grain ref the USD but I still believe we are at a good place to try.

    EURUSD update. Still in no man's land! Trapped between weekly and daily pivot.

    Break above 1.3 and retest long for sure. Below 1.28 evacuate the dance floor!

    eurusd-sbh4.pngeurusd-sbdaily.png

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  • Turtle Forex
    replied
    Originally posted by phillip View Post
    The old Gap theory. Seen that happen time and time again but never tried to play. Its one of those things that looks 'too' obvious.

    Its hard to get a good R/R and stop for them I think.

    What is your approach to playing them?

    Phil
    I'll play the gaps the same as my normal trades...if everything lines up I'll have the gap as a possible target.

    Hey Joe,

    The ideal scenario didn't materialise with the ECB & NFP double dagger. We didn't get the break above small channel so we we're left waiting.. sigh!

    As much as I would have loved to see that large channel hold, as it would have been a great trade for the month. We now have another less attractive but equally as valid setup from an R/R perspective. New trading week sitting on a 3rd touch of a trend line?!

    We will surely respect it initially. Patiently waiting to see what this does next.
    EURUSD will require patience...USD has been persistently strong...I've been expecting the USD to break down on the longer term charts but it just keeps inexplicably hanging around...I understand the whole "taper" thing giving a risk off scenario, but IMO there are better currencies than the watered-down USD to flock too...namely AUD, which no longer has that strong correlation to the Dow...but we have to let the market tell us, we cant tell the market...;-)

    Leave a comment:


  • phillip
    replied
    Originally posted by TraderFX65 View Post
    A few currencies gapped up against JPY Friday on the 15 min charts...usually these gaps will fill within a session.

    We have gaps on EURJPY, CHFJPY and GBPJPY....keep an eye on them for a short play to fill those gaps. JPY strength (far left chart, purple SM) going into Fridays close looks good to buy JPY.

    [ATTACH=CONFIG]103[/ATTACH]

    You heard it here first...;-)
    The old Gap theory. Seen that happen time and time again but never tried to play. Its one of those things that looks 'too' obvious.

    Its hard to get a good R/R and stop for them I think.

    What is your approach to playing them?

    Phil

    Leave a comment:


  • phillip
    replied
    Hey Joe,

    The ideal scenario didn't materialise with the ECB & NFP double dagger. We didn't get the break above small channel so we we're left waiting.. sigh!

    As much as I would have loved to see that large channel hold, as it would have been a great trade for the month. We now have another less attractive but equally as valid setup from an R/R perspective. New trading week sitting on a 3rd touch of a trend line?!

    We will surely respect it initially. Patiently waiting to see what this does next.

    eurusd-sbdaily.png
    Last edited by phillip; 07-08-2013, 11:29 AM.

    Leave a comment:

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