Forex, Markets, Macro Economic News Discussion.

[Steve]

Japan Markets Shaken as Investors Seek Shelter.

Wall Street Journal:

[Steve]

The Euro Is Now Back Where It Was Before QE Began

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/02/08/the-euro-is-now-back-where-it-was-before-qe-began/

[Steve]

5 Questions for Yellen

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-02-09/5-questions-for-janet-yellen

[Steve]

What Is Behind EUR Strength, Will It Be Sustained?

Credit Agricole:

EUR regained ground broadly in recent days with investors attributing the move to the currency's growing safe haven appeal. We agree that the EUR's superior liquidity should continue to provide support especially against the risk-correlated G10 smalls. That said, the fact that investors have 're-discovered' the EUR safe haven appeal only recently strikes us as rather odd.

Indeed, the single currency was languishing throughout the early stages of the latest market selloff, which started in January. In addition, the EUR is supported by safe haven inflows at a time when the selloff in the Eurozone bank stocks and peripheral bond markets is intensifying. Needless to say, the apparent calm in the peripheral bond markets and the recovery in the banking sector was a key ingredient of investors' confidence in the EUR during the bouts of risk aversion in recent years.

We think that the selloff in the Eurozone peripheral bonds and bank stocks and the latest EUR-resilience are connected. In particular, we suspect that the surge in the BTP and Bono yields has eroded the value of the bonds held by foreign investors recently. In turn, the drop in their EUR-exposure necessitated the reduction of the short-EUR hedges with foreign investors forced to buy back the single currency in the FX spot market. In addition, concerns about the health of the Eurozone financial sectors have evoked memories from 2012 debt crisis when banks were repatriating money from abroad and supported EUR.

The above would suggest that EUR could remain supported so long as the selloff in the periphery and the banking stocks continues. That said, we doubt that the EUR resilience could be sustained if the peripheral bond market selloff escalates and triggers portfolio outflows from the Eurozone, which should weigh on the single currency. Indeed, this has been the experience during the selloff in the Eurozone stock markets last summer. The EUR was supported initially through the unwinding of short-EUR hedges. As the selloff escalated, however, it triggered portfolio outflows from the Eurozone in Q3 and Q4 2015 and the EUR safe haven appeal diminished significantly.

Last but not least, while repatriation into EUR by the Eurozone banks may indeed occur, we doubt that it will be at the scale seen in 2012.

[Steve]

USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, AUD, NZD: Weekly Outlook - Morgan Stanley

https://www.efxnews.com/story/31978/usd-eur-jpy-gbp-cad-aud-nzd-weekly-outlook-morgan-stanley

[Gunther]

Good articles thanks


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Steve]

Hi Guys. Here is an interesting piece about the Euro.

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eu...adopt-in-march

Evidence the ECB do not like the current situation. They have many many tools in their toolbox to devalue the Euro.

[Steve]

Oh No Borris!! What have you done to my GBP longs!!?

Borris backs Brexit after Big Dave came up trumps with the EU deal:

http://news.forexlive.com/!/heres-the-boris-backs-brexit-news-20160221

[Steve]

Has Boris actually helped Big Dave AVOID a Brexit with a campaign to leave the EU?

Maverick London mayor makes U.K. prime minister look like a statesman..

What is really happening here, and how should we position ourselves? A game of politics?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-boris-johnson-has-helped-david-cameron-avoid-brexit-2016-02-22

[Steve]

Time to switch to Aussie longs?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-22/hedge-funds-bet-on-aussie-gains-as-china-bears-take-aim-at-korea

[Steve]

Who to believe BNPP or Deutsche Bank? The two banks have polar forecasts for EURUSD.

BNPP forecasting 1.14 by Q4, Deutsche Bank see parity.

http://www.forexcrunch.com/here-is-why-eurusd-set-to-rally-despite-ecb-easing-bnpp/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[rosentray]

Who to believe BNPP or Deutsche Bank? The two banks have polar forecasts for EURUSD.

BNPP forecasting 1.14 by Q4, Deutsche Bank see parity.


http://www.forexcrunch.com/here-is-w...medium=twitter

Interesting article! I'm buying at 1.09-1.0950

[Steve]

The ECB meeting in March should be interesting & defiantly a volatile event, especially if Super Mario doesn't produce what the goods. Just need to wait and see.

Looking at the interest rate differentials the USD is still the strongest currency long term, then the GBP and they are both in hiking cycles. And the EUR & the JPY are the weakest due to their easing QE & QQE programs. So for me I'm short on the EURUSD until the FED expectation to hike ends.

With all the uncertainty at the moment it may to just take short term trades, to not get caught out and be on the wrong side of the market.

[rosentray]

It seems the EUR/USD reached a turning point, let's see if the price reacts to the support level! 1.10 make it or break it.

[Steve]

It seems the EUR/USD reached a turning point, let's see if the price reacts to the support level! 1.10 make it or break it.

Yep. The battle is on for 1.10! Let's see if we get a breakout short from this level for all those Viper subscribers (me included).