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  • #46
    You're welcome!

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    • #47
      Originally posted by Okda View Post
      Seems like it is important source of trading strategies that I never knew before
      Thanks for the info

      Sent from my Nexus 6 using Tapatalk
      Attached is a snip from EFX Plus. Bank trades.

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      • #48
        USD Into NFP: Good News For Medium-Term Bulls - Deutsche Bank.

        https://www.efxnews.com/story/32187/...-deutsche-bank

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        • #49
          NFP USA JOBS DATA PREVIEWMarket Reaction

          As usual the release is likely to result in price volatility as participants and fast money quickly assess the headline figure. As such a strong number (>200K) should be accompanied by a quick move higher in US equities, lower in USTs and appreciation of USD with a soft number causing the reverse effect. Focus is then likely to turn to the components with, as previously mentioned, average hourly wages a highlight. An increase in US wages is likely to result in a sustained move higher in USD and steepening across the curve with a decrease likely to result in flattening.

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          • #50
            The EUR/USD is trading higher due to the latest NFP's. The pair reached 1.1043 and hit right at the 200SMA. Price retraced and is now trading around the 1.10 level. Key resistance remains the 200SMA at 1.1050 while first support is 1.0975.

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            • #51
              Fundamental Update


              USD: Headline NFP for February beat estimates at 242k vs 190k expected; the solid beat was undermined by a miss on Average Hourly Earnings which declined -0.1%. vs a rise of 0.2%. The USD remains the strongest currency fundamentally. Core PCE for January ticked up to 1.7% y/y which is reassuring for the Fed's tightening policy. We may see some hawkish comments from Fed members in relation to the recent move higher in underlying inflation. The second reading of Q4 GDP beat estimates at 1.0% above 0.4% expected. CPI for January beat estimates with Core CPI y/y ticking up to 2.2% and rising 0.3% for the month. Headline CPI was at 1.4% y/y. Minutes from the January meeting struck a cautious tone, noting increased uncertainty regarding inflation and potential financial risks. NFP for Jan saw 151,000 jobs added, versus expectations for 190,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.9%. Average hourly earnings jumped 0.5% for the month, however the y/y figure held steady at 2.5%.

              EUR: Eurozone Flash CPI for February missed estimates at -0.2% versus expectations of flat for the headline; 0.8% versus expectations of 0.9% for the ex-food & energy; and 0.7% versus expectations of 0.9% for the core (ex food/energy/alcohol/tobacco). This increases chances that the ECB will make a substantial move in monetary policy at the March meeting. At the January 21 ECB meeting, Draghi made dovish comments, saying that monetary policy will be reviewed at the March meeting due to further deterioration in inflation expectations and other financial uncertainty.

              GBP: UK GDP second estimate for Q4 2015, came inline with expectations for both the q/q at 0.5% and the y/y at 1.9%. London Mayor Boris Johnson's announcement to campaign for leaving the EU has put extra bearish sentiment on sterling. Average Earnings were at 1.9% for December, while the jobless rate moved up to 5.1%. Core CPI for January missed estimates and dipped back to 1.2%. The Bank of England vote split changed back to 9-0 with McCafferty no longer voting for a hike. Growth forecasts for 2016 and 2017 were downgraded while inflation is expected to remain below 1% til the end of the year. The referendum regarding Britain's exit from the EU contributes to bearish sentiment on the currency due to political uncertainty.

              AUD: Q4 GDP was much better than expected at 0.6% q/q vs 0.4% expected, and 3.0% y/y vs 2.5% expected. This positive reading brings into doubt the chances of any RBA cuts during 2016. The March 1 RBA statement was largely a reiteration of the prior statement; low inflation would provide room for easing; reasonable prospects for growth in the economy and low rates are supporting demand; will make a decision on whether market turmoil portends weaker demand. Q4 Private Capex beat estimates however forward-looking estimates for 2016/17 dramatically missed prior estimates, which caused weakness in the Aussie. 7,900 jobs were lost in January while the Unemployment Rate ticked up to 6%. CPI for the fourth quarter beat expectations overall with Trimmed Mean y/y remaining at 2.1%, which is within the Banks's target of 2-3%. The Australian dollar remains a neutral currency which will be guided by direction in key commodity assets.

              NZD: RBNZ Inflation Expectations for Q4 2015 came in at a 22-year low at 1.6%which puts pressure on the Bank to ease further. The RBNZ kept rates on hold in January but struck a dovish tone saying that the NZD needs to move lower and further easing is a possibility. Westpac forecast a cut to 2.25% at the March meeting. CPI for Q4 was poor showing deflation of -0.5% for the 3-month period and a rise of only 0.1% throughout all of 2015. This increases chances of further RBNZ cuts. On February 3, the Quarterly Employment Change printed at 0.9% versus the 0.8% consensus, while the Unemployment Rate tumbled to 5.3% smashing expectations of a 0.1% rise to 6.1%, and the lowest since the first quarter of 2009.

              CAD: Canada's economy expanded at an annualised rate of 0.8% in Q4, beating estimates; GDP for 2015 was at 1.2%. January employment declined 5,700 - its second decrease in the last three months, and missing consensus of a 6,000 gain. The jobless rate ticked up to 7.2%, on par with its highest mark since March 2013. The severe depreciation of the CAD due to falls in oil means there is less urgency to cut rates, as the lower CAD will boost inflation by making CAD-denominated goods more attractive to overseas buyers.

              JPY: BOJ core CPI dropped to 1.1% y/y for January. GDP for Q4 2015 missed estimates at -0.4%. The Bank of Japan announced negative interest rates of -0.10% on January 29 but left the QQE program unchanged. The inflation target was pushed back to end 2017 and the Bank remains prepared to ease further if necessary. The BOJ are watching CPI excluding food & energy to gauge underlying inflation trend.

              CHF: Q4 GDP beat estimates at 0.4%. The franc is fundamentally a weak currency given the SNB's negative interest rates, however it can suddenly rally on safe-haven flows. The SNB regularly recite that the franc is overvalued and they are prepared to intervene to weaken the currency. The franc's direction is difficult to predict due to regular intervention by the SNB.

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              • #52
                I have a reason to believe that the EUR/USD is ready for take off. The price has been trading slightly above long-term downward channel and is currently creating a new upward channel. Should we get another attempt to break the 200SMA, we might see the EUR/USD climbing above 1.11. I'm still bullish and I expect 1.11 this week.

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                • #53
                  EUR/USD reached 1.1057, 15 pips above the 200SMA but due to heavy bearish pressure, it retraced back below the Moving Average and is currenctly trading around the 1.10-1.1015 level.

                  The pair reached resistance twice in the last three days, indicating that the Euro might attempt a bull run. Pay attention to news this week and watch 1.1045.

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                  • #54
                    I'm not so sure. The ECB are meeting on the 10th and Draghi is under even more pressure that this meeting. He really has to do something as QE isn't being as affective as they planned. I think there is a chance they may even cut rates at this meeting & and increase QE. We may get a push up however before we see the drop.

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                    • #55
                      Steve could you comment on your GBPJPY trades of this week interested to now why you took them


                      Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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                      • #56
                        Interesting take! I remain bullish above 1.1050 and bearish below. These are the events scheduled for tomorrow:

                        - European Central Bank Rate Decision 12:45GMT
                        - ECB Deposit Facility Rate 12:45GMT
                        - ECB Marginal Lending Facility 12:45GMT
                        - ECB Press Conference 13:30GMT

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                        • #57
                          The EUR/USD reached as high as 1.1036 in yesterdays session, but couldn't keep up with the gains and retraced back below 1.10 to currently trade at 1.0962.

                          Price is going to trade in current range until the news today come out and the press conference takes place as traders and investors are waiting for fresh news later today.

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                          • #58
                            The EUR/USD is trading higher since yesterday's press conference. The pair reacted sharply bearish in the initial moments and reached 1.0820. However, the Euro decided it's time to break the resistance and pierced through the 200SMA at 1.1045 reaching as high as 1.1218.

                            Currently a modest decline is taking place and the EUR/USD is trading at 1.1120. Strong support at 1.1080. Major target for bulls 1.1400.

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                            • #59
                              Draghi

                              draghi.jpg

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                              • #60
                                The EUR/USD lost a bit from what was gained during the last two days of the previous week. Nevertheless, the pair is now trading in the uptrend channel and looks ready to test the first support at 1.1080. If this support holds, then the pair might attempt to test first resistance which appears to be the last high of 1.1220.

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