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  • #31
    Originally posted by Steve View Post
    Yep. The battle is on for 1.10! Let's see if we get a breakout short from this level for all those Viper subscribers (me included).
    Haha, right! Well, the EUR/USD is now trading between the 200SMA and the support line. 1.10 remains a crucial level. Below it we might see an attempt for 1.09, above it we should get a close above the 200SMA for a new trend to begin. Just my 2 cents.

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    • #32
      1.09 under attack!

      Comment


      • #33
        London Session Forecast 28/02/2016

        The USD rallied during Friday's NY session as Preliminary Gross Domestic Product and Personal Consumption Expenditures both smashed expectations. The headline for GDP beat estimates at 1.0% versus an expected 0.4% and an Advance reading of 0.7%.
        Personal Consumption Expenditure price index beat estimates across the board with core PCE m/m printing at 0.3% verus estimates of 0.1%, and core PCE y/y printing at 1.7% versus estimates of 1.5%. The y/y figure is now at its highest value in 3 years, moving the Fed closer to meeting its target of 2% inflation.
        Some continuation of USD strength was seen in today's Asian session with Kiwi falling 60 pips as ANZ Business Confidence came in at a 4-month low at 7.1% and Building Consents hit a 16-month low at -8.2%. Chances of an RBNZ rate cut in March remain ripe.
        Also during the Asian session, Japanese Retail Sales missed estimates at -0.1% y/y but Industrial Production beat at 3.7%. Meanwhile, Australian Company Operating Profits declined -2.8% q/q.
        Asian equities were down on the session, helping USDJPY fall 120 pips from Friday's dollar-led highs.
        Our general trade call for the week is to sell Cable and Kiwi on pullbacks (Kiwi may rally on oil gains however).

        Fundamentals:

        USD: Core PCE for January ticked up to 1.7% y/y which is reassuring for the Fed's tightening policy. We may see some hawkish comments from Fed members in relation to the recent move higher in underlying inflation. The second reading of Q4 GDP beat estimates at 1.0% above 0.4% expected. The USD remains the strongest currency fundamentally. CPI for January beat estimates with Core CPI y/y ticking up to 2.2% and rising 0.3% for the month. Headline CPI was at 1.4% y/y. Minutes from the January meeting struck a cautious tone, noting increased uncertainty regarding inflation and potential financial risks. NFP for Jan saw 151,000 jobs added, versus expectations for 190,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.9%. Average hourly earnings jumped 0.5% for the month, however the y/y figure held steady at 2.5%.

        EUR: Eurozone final CPI for January missed estimates for the y/y at 0.3% vs expected 0.4%, however the m/m and core reading were both inline with expectations at -1.4% and 1% respectively. At the January 21 ECB meeting, Draghi made dovish comments, saying that monetary policy will be reviewed at the March meeting due to further deterioration in inflation expectations and other financial uncertainty.

        GBP: UK GDP second estimate for Q4 2015, came inline with expectations for both the q/q at 0.5% and the y/y at 1.9%. London Mayor Boris Johnson's announcement to campaign for leaving the EU has put extra bearish sentiment on sterling. Retail Sales beat estimates across the board with the m/m figure printing its highest value since December 2013. Average Earnings were at 1.9% for December, while the jobless rate moved up to 5.1%. Core CPI for January missed estimates and dipped back to 1.2%. The Bank of England vote split changed back to 9-0 with McCafferty no longer voting for a hike. Growth forecasts for 2016 and 2017 were downgraded while inflation is expected to remain below 1% til the end of the year. The referendum regarding Britain's exit from the EU contributes to bearish sentiment on the currency due to political uncertainty.

        AUD: Q4 Private Capex beat estimates however forward-looking estimates for 2016/17 dramatically missed prior estimates, which caused weakness in the Aussie. 7,900 jobs were lost in January while the Unemployment Rate ticked up to 6%. On February 2, the RBA left its cash rate unchanged as was expected. The accompanying rate statement was fairly upbeat and signaled growing confidence in a domestic recovery, while low inflation still remains a concern and could provide scope for further easing moving forward if warranted. CPI for the fourth quarter beat expectations overall with Trimmed Mean y/y remaining at 2.1%, which is within the Banks's target of 2-3%. The Australian dollar remains a neutral currency which will be guided by direction in key commodity assets.

        NZD: RBNZ Inflation Expectations for Q4 2015 came in at a 22-year low at 1.6%which puts pressure on the Bank to ease further. The RBNZ kept rates on hold in January but struck a dovish tone saying that the NZD needs to move lower and further easing is a possibility. Westpac forecast a cut to 2.25% at the March meeting. CPI for Q4 was poor showing deflation of -0.5% for the 3-month period and a rise of only 0.1% throughout all of 2015. This increases chances of further RBNZ cuts. On February 3, the Quarterly Employment Change printed at 0.9% versus the 0.8% consensus, while the Unemployment Rate tumbled to 5.3% smashing expectations of a 0.1% rise to 6.1%, and the lowest since the first quarter of 2009.

        CAD: January employment declined 5,700 - its second decrease in the last three months, and missing consensus of a 6,000 gain. The jobless rate ticked up to 7.2%, on par with its highest mark since March 2013. The BOC kept rates on hold at the January 20 meeting, which surprised some analysts. The tone of the statement and Poloz's press conference was less dovish than anticipated, which is in line with Poloz and the BOC's generally optimistic stance. The severe depreciation of the CAD due to falls in oil means there is less urgency to cut rates, as the lower CAD will boost inflation by making CAD-denominated goods more attractive to overseas buyers. Further, it appears that the Canadian government may introduce fiscal stimulus measures in the next budget which allows the BOC to refrain from action for now. CAD will continue to be directed by the price of WTI.

        JPY: BOJ core CPI dropped to 1.1% y/y for January. GDP for Q4 2015 missed estimates at -0.4%. The Bank of Japan announced negative interest rates of -0.10% on January 29 but left the QQE program unchanged. The inflation target was pushed back to end 2017 and the Bank remains prepared to ease further if necessary. The BOJ are watching CPI excluding food & energy to gauge underlying inflation trend.

        CHF: The franc is fundamentally a weak currency given the SNB's negative interest rates, however it can suddenly rally on safe-haven flows. The SNB regularly recite that the franc is overvalued and they are prepared to intervene to weaken the currency. The franc's direction is difficult to predict due to regular intervention by the SNB.

        Technicals:

        We will be monitoring levels of support and resistance in unison with any impactful news and the underlying fundamentals in order to find a high probability trade. Support and resistance includes previous highs and lows (horizontal s/r), trendlines, moving averages, fibonacci retracements, daily pivot levels and round numbers. These levels of support and resistance are most effective when there are several of them converging at the same area (confluence)

        Comment


        • #34
          The EUR/USD is trading below support in today's hours of the European session. Price reached 1.0879 as today's low so far and is now currently trading at 1.0890. With the US economy gaining strength, the momentum of the positive news on Friday is still being felt.

          Technically speaking, we can expect 1.0840 to act as a first support due to prior pivot point being met. If this level is wiped, second support level is seen at 1.08 as a psychological support.

          Major resistance that bulls have to take out is the level of 1.1050 which is the 200SMA and the lower trend line on the long-term ascending channel.

          Comment


          • #35
            The EUR/USD is trading lower in today's trading session due to technical and fundamentals combined. Technically speaking, price is trading below the 200SMA for a fifth consecutive day. Also, price is now outside the long-term bullish channel, which makes it vulnerable to bear attack.

            First level of support 1.08, first level of resistance 1.0970.

            Comment


            • #36
              Originally posted by rosentray View Post
              The EUR/USD is trading lower in today's trading session due to technical and fundamentals combined. Technically speaking, price is trading below the 200SMA for a fifth consecutive day. Also, price is now outside the long-term bullish channel, which makes it vulnerable to bear attack.

              First level of support 1.08, first level of resistance 1.0970.
              Rosentray why are you hijacking this thread?.....

              Comment


              • #37
                Originally posted by Big River Man View Post
                Rosentray why are you hijacking this thread?.....
                I never knew this was personal journal, sorry...

                Comment


                • #38
                  Originally posted by Big River Man View Post
                  Rosentray why are you hijacking this thread?.....
                  In his first post when he opened this thread Steve did not imply that he wanted it just for his own postings. In fact he titled it "....Discussion". Unless the thread turns into a bunch of useless blabbering I am in favor of it being a discussion.

                  Cheers,
                  Rod

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Originally posted by nwboater View Post
                    In his first post when he opened this thread Steve did not imply that he wanted it just for his own postings. In fact he titled it "....Discussion". Unless the thread turns into a bunch of useless blabbering I am in favor of it being a discussion.

                    Cheers,
                    Rod
                    Didn't realize thought Steve and Nick set this up for Steve fundamental analysis and bank reports. No problem.

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Originally posted by rosentray View Post
                      I never knew this was personal journal, sorry...
                      Hi Guys!

                      Please please feel free to post here. The point of this thread is to generate a discussion, so we can chat about fundamentals together.

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Originally posted by Steve View Post
                        Hi Guys!

                        Please please feel free to post here. The point of this thread is to generate a discussion, so we can chat about fundamentals together.
                        Thanks! I would love to contribute. I have no news to share as i don't really follow them religiously, but i can do technical analysis!

                        I'm thinking about going long but I would like to see a close above 1.1050 (200SMA). Seeing the low volume in the past few days makes me wanna get in now, I think the bear rally has dried up.

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Originally posted by rosentray View Post
                          Thanks! I would love to contribute. I have no news to share as i don't really follow them religiously, but i can do technical analysis!

                          I'm thinking about going long but I would like to see a close above 1.1050 (200SMA). Seeing the low volume in the past few days makes me wanna get in now, I think the bear rally has dried up.
                          I'm still short on the pair, and I will trade i the longer term fundamental direction, as If the trade goes against me I know it isn't going to be 1000's of pips. As long as I'm not over leveraged I can average back in and come out at break even or a small profit.

                          I'm looking at going short around 1.09. Its a round number, at resistance, & at the R1 pivot level.

                          There are also bank orders at the following levels which add to the confluence:


                          Sell Orders
                            1.0930 (Medium)
                            1.0900 On Approach (Medium)

                          Current Market Price
                            1.0856

                          Buy Orders
                            1.0800 (Medium)

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Excuse me for asking here, but how do you know the info about bank orders and do they really have enough power in the market?

                            Sent from my Nexus 6 using Tapatalk

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Originally posted by Okda View Post
                              Excuse me for asking here, but how do you know the info about bank orders and do they really have enough power in the market?

                              Sent from my Nexus 6 using Tapatalk

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Seems like it is important source of trading strategies that I never knew before
                                Thanks for the info

                                Sent from my Nexus 6 using Tapatalk

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