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Bank of Canada October meeting preview

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  • Bank of Canada October meeting preview

    As you might already know, today is the Bank of Canada October meeting. They are widely expected to raise interest rates to 1.75%.

    Because this hike is already 95% priced in, the Canadian dollar's direction will depend on the accompanying statement and the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection.

    Read our full preview on this risk event:

    Bank of Canada October meeting

    Don't go crazy on your trades, wait for the market to assess the statement and then enter into the trade. Otherwise you might get caught in between nasty whipsaws during the first seconds of the release. All the best for all the traders of this event!

  • #2
    USD/CAD has been in an upside trajectory since the beginning of October. Last Thursday in, the pair surged after it found support near the uptrend line drawn from the low of the 1st of October, broke above 1.3175, but hit resistance slightly above 1.3225 and then it retreated somewhat. The rally above 1.3175 has confirmed a forthcoming higher high on the 4-hour chart, which combined with the fact that the rate continues to trade above the aforementioned trendline suggests that there is scope for more upside extensions.

    If the bulls are strong enough to take charge again soon and drive the battle decisively above 1.3225, then we may see them targeting the 1.3290 territory, defined by the highs of the 19th and 20th of July. Another break above that zone could carry more bullish extensions, perhaps towards the high of the 28th of June, at around 1.3350.

    Shifting attention to our short-term momentum studies, we see that the RSI, already above 50, has turned up again, while the MACD lies above both its zero and trigger lines, but it is running flat. Both indicators detect upside speed and support the case for further advances, but the fact that the MACD is flat make us cautious of a possible setback before the next positive leg.