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EURUSD: breakout of the upwards channel

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  • EURUSD: breakout of the upwards channel

    The euro fell markedly against the US dollar after the publication of the European Commission's report, which is expected to slow the Eurozone economy in 2019. The European Commission lowered the GDP forecast in the Eurozone from 2% to 1.9%.

    After the meeting, the US Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) accelerated the pair's descent. As expected, the FOMC decided to leave key interest rates in the country in the range of 2.00%-2.25%. The Committee confirmed its forecast for a gradual increase in interest rates. The statement that risks would remain balanced was present in the September statement, and remains intact. The next meeting is scheduled for December. Another rate hike is expected later this year.

    Day's news (GMT+3):

    10:45 France: industrial output (Sep).
    12:30 UK: GDP (Q3), total business investment (Q3), industrial production (Sep), trade balance (Sep), construction (Sep).
    16:00 UK: NIESR GDP estimate (Oct).
    16:30 US: PPI (Oct).
    18:00 US: Michigan CSI (Nov).
    21:00 US: Baker Hughes US oil rig count.

    Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart

    Current situation:

    Our forecast for the high and low was accurate. I did not consider the jump from the high (1.1447). I expected a fall to the trend line on Friday, while sellers passed this yesterday. In addition, there was a breakout of the upwards channel and the area around the 112th-135th degree acted as a support.

    I did not make a forecast for Friday due to the conflicting situation we have. The price may fall to 1.1313, or via a correctional movement under the trend line. There is no important news scheduled for today for the euro, and should the euro strengthen to 1.1375, that could cancel the bearish scenario.

  • #2
    I will give a purely opinion and personal suggestion that the bearish scenario is no longer avoidable and nothing will change and I think that the breakthrough can be expected not soon, but again it is only my opinion)


    • #3
      Since November EURUSD is moving in a channel, testing on several occasions long term support at 1.1270. I am not sure if currency pair have enough strength to break this level, so it looks more like reversal toward resistance


      • #4
        Still moving in a channel. I think that currently fundamentals are in play and market is generally uncertain in which direction to move. There are political issues on both USD and EUR side supporting uncertainty. I am expecting to see some significant move after final Brexit. What do you think?