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Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

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  • #16
    The Australian Dollar continues falling. Overview for 01.10.2019

    On Tuesday, AUDUSD is retreating; the RBA rate decision did match expectations.

    The Australian Dollar remains week against the USD on Tuesday. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6734.

    This morning, the October meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia was over, where the regulator decided to cut the rate by 25 basis points, from 0.75% to 1.00%. However, this scenario was expected by investors, because earlier the regulator said that it would be necessary to boost the country’s economy.

    Probably, now the RBA may take a pause and view the happenings, but if the global market conditions don’t change for the better, the regulator might as well cut the rate one more time until the end of the year.

    The statistics published in the morning showed that the AIG Manufacturing Index went from 53.1 points in August to 54.7 points in September. The fact that the indicator is still above 50 points, which separates decline from growth, is surely positive.

    At the moment, the thing the Aussie is mostly responding to is the USD strength, but not external news, that’s why it retreating.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

    Comment


    • #17
      The Pound managed to reach stability. Overview for 02.10.2019


      After being pretty volatile on Tuesday, GBPUSD found support and is ready to consolidate.

      The British Pound has reached stability against the USD by Wednesday; the volatile Tuesday is gone. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2274.

      The Pound rose significantly during yesterday’s trading session after Bloomberg reported that “the EU had discussed giving the UK a major concession on Brexit by possibly time-limiting the contentious backstop mechanism for the Irish border”. In addition to that, there were speculations that the European Union might consider some easing of its requirements in case the United Kingdom settled for a compromise in the Irish issue.

      However, later it became known that the European Union didn’t consider this option, and that’s what made the Pound retreat.

      Everything that is somehow relating to the Brexit and complications surrounding it has a strong influence and pressure on the Pound behavior. Meanwhile, the Brexit is only 29 days away.

      Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

      Comment


      • #18
        The Pound is very volatile. Overview for 03.10.2019

        The British Pound has been pretty volatile recently; however, there is more to come.

        The British Pound is very volatile against the USD on Thursday. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2293.

        It’s all about the Brexit nuances, which are moving to the forefront these days. So, the EU's Chief Negotiator for the United Kingdom Exiting the European Union Michel Barnier said yesterday that there was visible progress in negotiations. The United Kingdom offered Brussels several suggestions, but they had to be fully canvassed. Barnier once again emphasized that the European Union wouldn’t accept any no-deal Brexit scenarios.

        As for London, they also mentioned that there was progress in Brexit talks and the country was ready to discuss everything in detail.

        The statistics published today showed that the Services PMI dropped to 49.5 points in September after being 50.6 points the month before and against the expected reading of 50.3 points. The decline below the psychologically crucial level of 50 points says that market sentiments in the sector, which is very sensitive to consumer demand, are getting more pessimistic. It’s a very bad signal for the British Pound and economy.

        Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

        Comment


        • #19
          The Euro slowed down its growth. Overview for 04.10.2019

          The major currency pair has significantly improved over this week, but investors need new catalysts.

          EURUSD slowed down its growth on Friday morning in anticipation of the statistics from the USA and speeches to be delivered by the US monetary policymakers. The current quote for the instrument is 1.0973.

          Yesterday, market players had concerns about signs of weakness in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors of the USA, because they might influence the global economy in general. However, maybe investors just got tired of buying and decided to wait for news.

          The news will surely be today: later in the afternoon, the USA is going to report on the labor market for September. The Unemployment Rate may remain unchanged at 3.7%, which is the same as expected. The Average Hourly Earnings is expected to add 0.3% m/m after increasing by 0.4% m/m in August, and that’s a very good result.

          Of course, investors’ attention will be focused on the Non-Farm Employment Change, which may show 145K after 130K the month before. In general, market expectations are quite favorable, and if they match actual readings, the USD may recover a bit.
          In the evening, several US Federal Reserve members are scheduled to speak, including the Chair Jerome Powell, so the major currency pair may become very volatile along towards evening.

          Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

          Comment


          • #20
            The Euro intends to continue rising. Overview for 07.10.2019

            On Monday, EURUSD is consolidating, but may yet resume its growth.

            The major currency pair is doing fine early in another October week. The current quote for the instrument is 1.0980.

            Last Friday, the USA published several September reports on employment, which turned out to be quite good after all. The Unemployment Rate wasn’t expected to change, but it dropped from 3.7% to 3.5%, which is the lowest level since 1969.

            The Average Hourly Earnings remained unchanged in comparison with the August reading. However, on YoY, the indicator showed +2.9% in September after being +3.2% in the previous month. It’s not good news, but there are no reasons to worry so far. The Non-Farm Employment Change was 136K in September and it’s the lowest indicator value over the last four months. However, the August reading was revised upwards, up to 168K, and that made investors happy.

            Generally speaking, these numbers indicate that the labor market remains stable, thus preventing the recession and allowing market players operating actively. In addition to that, the statistics don’t increase the Fed’s chances to raise the rate until the end of this year and that provided additional support to the USD.

            Today, one should pay attention to the Sentix Investor Confidence for October. The indicator may decrease from -11.1 points to -12.9 points.

            Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

            Comment


            • #21
              The Euro is barely moving. Overview for 08.10.2019

              On Tuesday, EURUSD is barely moving; the pair is saving strengths in anticipation of news.

              The major currency pair is standing still in comparison with yesterday. The current quote for the instrument is 1.0980.

              Right now, the USD is looking stable, because the entire investment world is braced for another upcoming round of US-China trade talks. It’s not easy to predict where it may lead to, but investors have great expectations this event.

              In the evening, there will be a lot of numbers from the USA. For example, the country is going to report on the Producer Price Index for September, which is expected to add 0.1% m/m, the same as in August. The Core PPI may expand by 0.2% m/m after adding 0.3% m/m the month before.

              In addition to that, market players will be offered the NFIB Small Business Index report, which may show 102.6 points in September after being 103.1 points in the previous month. If small businesses do reduce their expectations and plan to become less active at the time when the buyer's interest is going down, it’s a bad signal for the American economy.

              Later in the evening, several Fed policymakers are scheduled to speak. The regulator’s Chairman Jerome Powell is one of them.

              Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

              Comment


              • #22
                The Euro is fighting for yesterday’s losses. Overview for 09.10.2019

                In the middle of the week, the major currency pair is recovering after yesterday’s losses; investors are analyzing the Fed’s intentions.

                EURUSD is growing on Wednesday afternoon, but investors are very cautious. The current quote for the instrument is 1.0987.

                Demand for the USD is not as active as before, because investors’ hopes for successful trade negotiations between the USA and China are fading: there was no new information relating to the trade talks. As a result, market players switched to other assets, thus helping the major currency pair to recover.

                While delivering the speech yesterday, the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told about the regulator’s intentions to expand its portfolio of government-backed securities. It is about Treasury Bills, but investors are sure to take it as some kind of “compact” QE. Powell himself explained several times that this procedure was necessary for recovering the regulator’s balance, not for supporting the financial system. Nothing was said about the program volume, but Powell mentioned that it wouldn’t be too big.

                As a result, the Fed’s “printing press” is on again. The cash liquidity will increase a bit (investors would like to know by how much and that might be announced later). In this light, the USD may fundamentally weaken a little.

                Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

                Comment


                • #23
                  The Pound is looking for support. Overview for 10.10.2019

                  On Thursday afternoon, GBPUSD stopped falling but may resume its decline at any moment.

                  The British Pound is growing a little bit against the USD on Thursday. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2227.

                  The European Union and the United Kingdom continue debating on the Brexit. The current discussions are about the exact time of Britain’s exiting the alliance: right now, the time may yet be revised based on the existing deal draft. The European Council will meet on October 17th and 18th, so if the parties do have any thoughts on delaying the Brexit, they should be voiced prior to these dates.

                  The United Kingdom is scheduled to publish a lot of macroeconomic reports today. For example, the August GDP report, which is not expected to increase after adding 0.3% m/m in July. Apart from this, investors will be offered the Industrial Production report, which is also expected to remain the same after adding 0.1% m/m/ the month before. The Manufacturing Production may expand by 0.1% m/m, which is worse than the July reading. The Construction Output may drop by 0.4% m/m after being +0.5% m/m in July.

                  Slowdown in the British production is obvious and it’s not accidental, but looks more like a tendency. For the Pound, it’s a risk.

                  Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    The Pound rose thanks to progress in Brexit talks. Overview for 11.10.2019

                    On Friday morning, GBPUSD remains energetic and is ready to rise thanks to progress in Brexit talks.

                    The British Pound intends to keep growing against the USD on Friday. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2450.

                    The Pound skyrocketed yesterday after investors found out that the United Kingdom was ready to make significant concessions in the Brexit talks. Pat Leahy, the Irish Times editor, twitted that “there had been very significant movement from the British side on the customs issue in the Johnson-Varadkar talks”.

                    Yesterday, the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar “held make-or-break Brexit talks”, after which market players started active debates on a possible deal soon. The “hardcore” Brexit is not a good thing for Ireland and here’s the reason why: according to the current calculations, this scenario might result in the hasty growth of unemployment, up to 7% on average. Later, it might get much worse.

                    Deteriorations on the Irish labor market will be clearly seen right after implementation of the no-deal Brexit scenario and may continue for the next two years, and the Irish party would like to avoid it. That’s why any progress relating to the Brexit deal, including the Irish border, is absolutely positive for the British Pound.

                    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      The Fed is starting to print money. Overview for 14.10.2019

                      EURUSD is trying to rise early in the week; market players are keeping a wary eye on the Fed.

                      The major currency pair remains “in the black” and intends to continue its growth while investors are very cautious about the USD. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1033.

                      If one decides to explain in simple terms what is happening in the US monetary policy, saying that the US Federal Reserve is turning its money printing press on and starting to bankroll the market would suffice. However, if digging into the matter, it goes like this: last Friday, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released papers, according to which the US regulator would start buying treasury bonds in the amount of 60 billion USD per month. The process is expected to last at least until the end of the second quarter 2020, this means that the QE, and that’s QE for sure no matter which way you look at it, will cost at least 510 billion USD.

                      The Fed itself strongly disagrees on the term “QE” here, because it would mean that the regulator caved in to the White House and loosed its monetary policy for the long haul. The liquidity in the amount of 60 billion USD will be directly emitted to the market and might as well weaken the American currency. For the record – US President Donald Trump won’t like it a lot.

                      Why doing this? At least, to help the American economy handle trade wars, which are now put on hold, but may revive any moment.

                      The Fed said on several occasions that these money infusions are just technical, but the history shows otherwise. Of course, the USD doesn’t like these circumstances as well.

                      Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        The Pound keeps its hopes to rise. Overview for 15.10.2019


                        After a short pause, GBPUSD is back to growing; market players believe in the Brexit.

                        The British Pound is rising against the USD again after a two-day pause. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2661.

                        London and the European Union are coming to a head of the Brexit negotiations: the parties are running short of time for making a deal, but seem very determined to do it until the end of the month. This Thursday, October 17th, the EU is set to start its two-day summit and if there is no news relating to the Brexit by October 19th, the British Prime Minister is obliged by the law to ask for renewal of negotiations and extension of the deadline. However, this contradicts what Boris Johnson was saying during his ascendancy to the Prime Minister position.

                        Right now, the United Kingdom really needs no pauses in this process. If the deal with the European Union is signed this week, Johnson will require some time to rush all documents through the British parliament.

                        Later in the evening, the UK is scheduled to report on the labor market. For example, one should pay attention to the Average Earnings Index, which may add 4.0% 3m/y. Another report to be released is the Unemployment Rate, which is expected to remain unchanged at 3.8% and that’s quite good. And the final indicator, the Claimant Count Change, may show 21.3K in September after being 28.2K in the previous month.

                        Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          The Pound is waiting for the Brexit news. Overview for 16.10.2019

                          GBPUSD is trading close to May’s highs; investors’ attention is focused on the Brexit deal draft.

                          The British Pound moved a bit away from yesterday’s highs, but may yet continue rising. The current quote for GBPUSD is 1.2756.

                          Last night, the Pound was pretty popular in the view of talks about the Brexit deal draft prepared by the United Kingdom and the European Union. They said that the draft might appear in the media on Wednesday morning, but there hasn’t been any news about it so far.

                          Meanwhile, the talks continue. On Thursday, the EU is set to have the Brexit summit and some of the documents had to be ready at the opening.

                          It seems like the Pound will remain volatile in the next 24 hours, so investors may try to benefit from everything that is relating to the Brexit procedure.

                          The statistics published yesterday showed that the Unemployment Rate rose from 3.8% in August to 3.9% in September. The Claimant Count Change was 21.1K, bringing the total amount to 1.31M. The Average Earnings Index added 3.8% 3m/y against the expected reading of +4.0% 3m/y.

                          Overall, the British labor market is estimated as stable and neutral, and the August decline might have been temporary. In this light, it will be interesting to check on September numbers.

                          Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            The Australian Dollar rose on statistics. Overview for 17.10.2019

                            AUDUSD is trading upwards thanks to strong numbers on the Australian labor market.

                            The Australian Dollar is growing pretty well against the USD on Thursday. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6775.

                            According to the statistics published today, the Unemployment Rate went from 5.3% in August to 5.2% in September, although it wasn’t expected to change. The Employment Change was 14.7K in September and the previous reading was revised from 34.7K to 37.9K.

                            This is good news that supported the Aussie. The situation on the Australian labor market didn’t worry investors before, but one more signal that the sector is okay is surely positive.

                            However, investors barely noticed another report, the NAB Quarterly Business Confidence, which was -2 points in the third quarter after being 5 points the quarter before. Moreover, the second quarter reading was revised downwards, which is also not good. The indicator being below 0 shows the deterioration of market conditions. There is a direct correlation here between Australia’s domestic economy and its foreign contacts, China first of all, whose economy is slowing down.

                            Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              The Euro is trading at 6 weeks highs. Overview for 18.10.2019

                              The major currency pair continues rising influenced by Brexit positive.

                              EURUSD intends to continue its growth on Friday. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1124.

                              The major currency pair is feeling fine while being supported by the news that the United Kingdom and the European Union agreed on the Brexit deal. The Euro did feel nervous while policymakers were trying to reach consensus, so now it is regaining its positions.

                              Yesterday, the USA published a lot of numbers. First of all, the weekly Unemployment Claims report, which showed 214K against 201K last week. It’s not critical.

                              The Housing Starts declined in September and was only 1.26M after being 1.39M in August and against the expected reading of 1.32M. The same for the Building Permits: 1.39M in September against 1.43M the month before.

                              The Capacity Utilization Rate dropped from 77.9% to 77.5%. The indicator really was anticipated to fall, but the final reading was worse than expected. The Industrial Production lost 0.4% m/m in September after adding 0.8% m/m in the previous month. In the case of this indicator, some decline was also expected, but no one thought it would be so serious. However, this bad news has a quite conceivable reason: there were strikes at General Motors, which had a significant influence on the volume of car output and spare parts. The future outlook for the company still remains uncertain in the light of the global demand decline. In addition to that, the entire sector is looking rather weak due to trade wars between the USA and China.

                              In the future, the indicators may return into a positive area after trade agreements are signed or arranged at least, but it will take the manufacturing sector some time to recover and feel itself better.

                              Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                The Pound doesn’t believe in possible Brexit complications. Overview for 21.10.2019

                                GBPUSD stopped rising; investors are waiting for the news from the British policymakers.

                                The British Pound slowed down its growth against the USD. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2900.

                                Last week, the European Union and the United Kingdom agreed on the deal that might help to carry out the exiting procedure according to a “soft” scenario, which implied minimum damage to the British economy. The British Prime Minister Boris Johnson managed to persuade the European policymakers to consider the aspects that were the most important to the Brits. Everything was good, but no one could predict what would happen later.

                                During its emergency meeting last Saturday, the British Parliament declined the deal, which means that policymakers might go back to discussing it today-tomorrow, but Johnson is highly likely to be forced to ask the European Union for another delay, this time until January. We remind you that the Brexit was set for October 31st, but the deal is there yet.

                                It appears that Johnson tripped over the same stone the former Prime Minister Theresa May did. Earlier, he deployed a lot of efforts to bar the Parliament from making such decisions, because he thought that policymakers might cause a lot of troubles. So they did.
                                Right now, market players aren’t ready yet to believe that the Brexit may fail again, but the activity in GBPUSD is already lower than earlier – investors are waiting for the news.

                                Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

                                Comment

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