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Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

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  • #31
    The Euro is saving strengths. Overview for 22.10.2019

    On Tuesday morning, the major currency pair is waiting for the Brexit news and saving strengths in anticipation of the ECB meeting.
    EURUSD is consolidating without any particular direction on Tuesday. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1155.

    So far, there is no news relating to the Brexit as the Parliament Brexit Vote is scheduled for 12:30 GMT. That’s why the best thing for investors to do is saving strengths.

    This Thursday, October 24th, the European Central Bank is set to have another meeting. There are two key points here. The first one is that this will be the last meeting of the regulator in 2019. The second one – it will be the last meeting Mario Draghi acts as the ECB Governor. On November 1st, 2019, Christine Lagarde will take the office and become the first woman in the position of ECB President. It is her, who will assess the results of the QE announced earlier and expand the list of stimulus tools. Sooner or later, she will have to do this, there are no doubts about it.

    The tools the ECB has aren’t very numerous. It might well be that the regulator will have to slowly decrease the interest rate, but let's not run ahead.

    it is obvious that the last ECB meeting “hosted” by Mario Draghi may pass without any disturbances, although one should admit that the European economy has significantly deteriorated since the previous meeting. Market players are waiting for an assessment of existing problems, at least, and that may weaken the Euro.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

    Comment


    • #32
      They are selling the Pound on Wednesday. Overview for 23.10.2019


      GBPUSD is moving downwards after House of Commons of the United Kingdom approved the Brexit deal.

      The British Pound is falling against the USD on Wednesday morning. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2860.

      The British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has finally succeeded in persuading the Parliament to approve Brexit deal her earlier made with the European Union. It took two ballots, the first one last Saturday, which failed, and the second one this Tuesday, which finally succeeded: 329 votes for and 299 votes against.

      However, this approval doesn’t guarantee that the same House of Commons will have no problems in quickly ratifying the deal. However, it’s a very important step for Johnson, because he managed to pass at least the first obstacle of his way.

      Right now, no one can be sure that the Brexit will really start on October 31st as was scheduled before. The ratification itself may be a serious problem. Johnson said that the EU wouldn’t likely agree to postpone the deadline one more time, that’s why he was trying to force the process, even if the British policymakers failed to ratify the exiting procedure and refused to implement it on the legislative level.

      It is currently known that the United Kingdom asked the EU to approve rescheduling the Brexit date from October 31st, 2019 to January 31st, 2020. However, there hasn’t been any news from the European policymakers yet.

      Everything that is happening right now is not good for the Pound. Yes, the procedure is underway, but it is too slow to be very productive.

      Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

      Comment


      • #33
        The Euro is keeping balance. Overview for 24.10.2019

        On Thursday, EURUSD remains stable; it is still waiting for the news.

        The major currency pair is quite inactive on Thursday morning – there will be a busy day ahead. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1135.

        The statistics published yesterday showed that the Consumer Confidence in the Euro Area deteriorated and was -8 points in October after being -7 points in the previous month. It’s not good news for the European currency, but not surprising at the same time.

        There will be a lot of October numbers from Europe today, such as the Manufacturing and Services PMIs from Germany, France, and the Euro Area itself. All reports are preliminary and barely expected to have any influence on the major currency pair. However, they may provide insight into what is currently happening in the region.

        In the afternoon, the European Central Bank is scheduled to have another meeting. Everything has already been said, but the regulator’s comments might be interesting.

        Later in the afternoon, market players should pay attention to the September Durable Goods Orders report from the USA, which is expected to show -0.5% m/m after adding 0.2% m/m the month before. The indicator is extremely volatile and changes all the time, that’s why one should carefully read the components of the report even if the numbers are weak.

        Apart from this, the USA is going to report on the New Home Sales in September, which may drop from 713K to 710K. This decline is not critical and can be easily explained by the current imperfect situation on the real estate market.

        Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

        Comment


        • #34
          The Euro is trying to regain positions. Overview for 25.10.2019

          EURUSD fell after the ECB meeting. Right now, it is trying to recover.

          The major currency pair is correcting at the end of the trading week after an unsuccessful Thursday. The current quote for the instream is 1.1119.

          During the meeting that took place yesterday, the European Central Bank left all key interest rates unchanged: the benchmark rate at 0%, the deposit facility rate at -0.5%. A negative rate is one of the tools the ECB has to influence its monetary policy, which means that banks have to pay the regulator for keeping their money, but not vice versa. As a result, the ECB motivates banks to invest money in real sectors or businesses, but not very successfully so far.

          In the comments, the ECB said that businesses paid attention to the increase of pressure on the value of labor power. It means that conditions on the labor market are getting more complicated and a weak impulse from this sector may slow down the inflating in the future.

          According to the regulator, the stimulus programs launched in September will provide the Area’s economy with monetary incentives. Later, it may support households and small companies.

          The ECB intends to continue its loose monetary policy for a long time. they said it was necessary for keeping the inflation close to target levels.

          Right after the meeting, investors lost interest in the Euro – they decided that the regulator had already run out of fiscal tools and next time it would have to cut the rate.

          Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

          Comment


          • #35
            They stopped selling the Euro. Overview for 28.10.2019

            On Monday, EURUSD stopped falling; right now, it is consolidating close to week’s lows.

            The major currency pair is quite calm early in the week, but there will be a lot of reasons to be more active later this week. The current quote for EURUSD is 1.1088.

            There will be several events that may influence the Euro behavior. First of all, it’s a meeting of the US Federal Reserve. The key anticipated thing is whether the regulator is going to continue cutting the rate or not in the future, that’s why investors’ attention will be focused on the comments following the meeting. As for the rate decision itself, no one has any doubts that the regulator will decrease it down to 1.50-1.75% this time. However, this was already shown up in EURUSD prices, so there might be no significant fluctuations at all.

            Secondly, this Friday the ECB Governor Mario Draghi will step aside from his position in favor of Christine Lagarde. Market players do not expect any serious changes in the regulator’s policy, but they are surely eager to hear first comments from Lagarde, a new head of the ECB, who is a very experienced monetary policymaker. Mid-term market expectations imply that the regulator might have to change its monetary policy earlier than predicted before due to a decline in the Euro Area GDP and a lot of targeted problems in several European countries.

            There will be some statistics worth paying attention to. For example, the USA is scheduled to report on the GDP for the third quarter. Although the report isn’t likely to contain any numbers to impress investors, the market will be volatile whatever the case.

            Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

            Comment


            • #36
              The Pound is keeping balance. Overview for 29.10.2019

              On Tuesday, GBPUSD is waiting for new information on Brexit; market players are in no hurry to get back to buying.

              The British Pound is consolidating against the USD on Tuesday afternoon. Investors are in no hurry to make any quick movements until there is no new information on Brexit. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2847.

              Yesterday, it became known that the European Union agreed to extend the Brexit deadline until January 31st, 2020. So, the British Parliament doesn’t have to be in a rush to ratify the agreement between parties. However, according to the extension, the United Kingdom may exit the alliance at any moment prior to January 31st, as soon as the parties are ready.

              It’s good news because the ratification process of those agreements reached by Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Brussels won’t be hasty and speedy. And that’s a good thing: who knows what else may scare British lords and how they may react to tight deadlines.

              The statistics published yesterday showed that the CBI Realized Sales in the UK improved in October and was -10 points after being -16 points the month before and against the expected reading of -20 points. Growth of the indicator may show that the Retail Sales sector is reaching stability, which is quite good for the British economy.

              Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

              Comment


              • #37
                The Euro plunged to its three weeks lows. Overview for 06.11.2019

                Bears continue pushing EURUSD; investors are waiting for the trade agreement.

                The major currency pair slowed down its decline on Wednesday but remains pretty weak. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1076.

                The key source of positive for the USD is the anticipation of the trade agreement between the USA and China, the first part of which may be concluded in the nearest future. For investors, it would mean an immediate reduction of any possible risks. These expectations are exactly what support the USD right now and make “safe haven” currencies go down.

                The statistics published yesterday showed that the PPI in the Euro Area added 0.1% m/m in September after losing 0.5% m/m in August. The actual reading matched the expected one and surprised no one.

                On the other hand, the statistics published by the USA in the evening were quite interesting. The final report on the Markit Services PMI showed 50.6 points in October after being 51.0 points the month before. At the same time, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI went from 52.6 points in September to 54.7 points in October. As a rule, we rely on the ISM report, which is currently showing a significant improvement in the sector. The thing that is really good is the ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment, which increased from 50.4 points to 53.7 points.

                In the afternoon, the Euro Area and some of its countries, such as Spain, Italy, France, and Germany are scheduled to publish final reports on their Manufacturing PMIs for October. Moreover, the Euro Area will report on Retail Sales in September, which is expected to be rather weak. The evening statistics from the USA are mostly minor, that’s why the key focus will remain on the US-China trade talks.

                Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

                Comment


                • #38
                  The Euro continues falling. Overview for 07.11.2019

                  EURUSD has been falling for the fourth consecutive trading session; market players are hoping for the better.

                  The major currency pair continues falling on Thursday morning. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1062.

                  The key catalyst on the market remains the same: investors are hoping that the USA and China, who are actively working on the first phase of their trade agreement, will sign it in the nearest future. Market expectations imply November, which means that it may happen onу ща these days. This, in its turn, reduces the interest in “safe haven” assets and makes the American currency stronger.

                  It’s obvious that the parties, both the USA and China, need the deal. However, the time passes by, negotiations are impeded, although news media says that they keep going.

                  Yesterday, the Euro Area reported on the Retail Sales in September, which added 0.1% m/m, the same as expected. However, it’s worse than the August reading, which was revised upwards, from +0.3% m/m to +0.6% m/m, and that’s a good signal. Probably, season sales had their effect.

                  There will be a meeting of the Eurogroup today, while the European Commission is going to publish its Economic Forecasts. If there are no surprises here, the Euro will remain under pressure from the current drivers and catalysts. Later in the evening, the USA is scheduled to report on the Consumer Credit in September, which is expected to go from 17.9B to 15.6B.

                  Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    The Yen is retreating. Overview for 08.11.2019

                    USDJPY intends to continue growing on Friday; investors no longer need “safe haven” assets.

                    At the end of the first November week, the Japanese Yen is retreating against the USD. The current quote for the instrument is 109.30.

                    Market players are currently showing little interest in “safe haven” assets because they are sure that the USA and China will sign their trade agreement in the nearest future. In fact, these expectations are keeping them afloat for already a week, but nothing has changed so far.

                    The statistics published by Japan in the morning showed that the Household Spending skyrocketed in September by 9.5% y/y, which is much better than market expectations (+7.1% y/y) and the August reading (+1.0% y/y). However, it’s not surprising: most likely, consumers decided to spend a lot of money before the government introduced a new sales tax. This, in its turn, means that the October number may be pretty disappointing, at least.

                    Japanese consumers are very careful in their expenses and this tendency continues for years. The indicator behavior in September can easily be explained by economic uncertainty: the Bank of Japan provides stimulus to the country’s economy, but can’t jump-start economic growth.

                    The Leading Indicators report showed 92.2% in September, the same as expected. The month before, it was 91.9%.

                    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      The Euro starts consolidating. Overview for 11.11.2019

                      The major currency pair is quite confident early in another November week.

                      EURUSD is no longer falling this morning; right now, it is consolidating. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1026.

                      Last Friday, the US President Donald Trump said that he wasn’t ready yet to consider the possibility of completely removing import tariffs on Chinese goods introduced earlier. That’s not good news, because investors are already tensed enough because of the trade agreement between these countries, which hasn’t been signed yet.

                      There were such rumors before: all these talks that after signing the first phase of the trade deal the parties might remove import duties on each other’s goods crashed into the White House’s tough stance.

                      However, right now there is neither fixed date of signing the agreement nor other nuances or details. Nevertheless, investors believe that the deal will be made in the nearest future because both the USA and China need it badly.

                      The USA celebrates Veterans Day today, so the markets are off. The Euro Area won’t provide any interesting statistics as well, that’s why investors in the major currency pair are left to their own devices. The European numbers that might really attract market players’ attention will be published not earlier than Thursday: the preliminary report on the Euro Area’s GDP in the third quarter of 2019.

                      Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        The Pound got a chance to recover. Overview for 12.11.2019

                        Lacking any external news, GBPUSD is slowly correcting after falling earlier.

                        Last week, the British Pound weakened enough to get a chance for a correction now. the current quote for the instrument is 1.2862.

                        These couple of days the United Kingdom is very active in publishing macroeconomic statistics. Not to say all reports are very important, but some of them may be considered quite interesting. For example, the British GDP is looking alive and healthy in the third quarter: the revised report showed +0.3% q/q after 0.2% q/q in the previous quarter, which is an excellent piece of news. To be more specific, in September the indicator lost 0.1% m/m, the same as expected, while in August it showed -0.2% m/m.

                        The Industrial Production was -0.3% m/m in September after losing 0.7% m/m in the previous month. The indicator was expected to fall, but only by 0.1%. However, the actual reading is also not too bad given the economic turbulence in the country. The Manufacturing Production dropped by 0.4% m/m after losing 0.7% m/m the month before.

                        So, this is what we see: companies, in hopes of settlement of the Brexit deal in the nearest future (later, we may find out that it’s not going to happen), became more active and customers “returned the compliment”. The October reading will probably be weaker, because by that time investors may understand that miracles don’t happen and the Brexit is extended once again.

                        Today, the UK is scheduled to report on the employment market in September, which may also be very interesting. Most likely, September readings on the Unemployment Rate and the Average Earnings Index won’t change a lot, but if they do, investors will have something, bad or good, to respond to.

                        Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          The New Zealand Dollar skyrocketed. Overview for 13.11.2019

                          On Wednesday, NZDUSD updated its weekly highs after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept the key interest rate intact.

                          The New Zealand Dollar cheered up after the RBNZ’s decision to leave the interest rate unchanged during its November meeting. The current quote for NZDUSD is 0.6401.

                          So, during its regular meeting, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand didn’t change the key interest rate and left it at 1.0%. However, market players expected it to be cut by 25 basis points, down to 0.75%.

                          The fact that the country’s Central Bank decided not to cut the rate is quite surprising, at least: the regulator was expected to follow the path of other Central Banks and loosen its monetary policy to support the global trend. However, it seems like the situation in the New Zealand economy allows to stay away from global tendencies and follow events in the world closely. At the same time, it’s quite obvious that lower interest rates might help the country somehow because New Zealand couldn’t escape global trade wars.

                          Last time the RBNZ cut its key rate was in August, by 50 basis points. Probably, it was a preventive measure by the regulator, which now helps to avoid any abrupt movements.

                          Keeping the key rate unchanged turned out to be a very pleasant surprise for the New Zealand currency.

                          Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            A stressful day for the Aussie. Overview for 14.11.2019

                            On Thursday, AUDUSD is falling influenced by the numbers from Australia and China.

                            The Australian Dollar is boosting its decline against the USD on Thursday. the current quote for the instrument is 0.6797.

                            The statistics from Australia published earlier today didn’t impress. The Unemployment Rate went from 5.2% in September to 5.3% in October, although it wasn’t expected to change. The Employment Change showed -19K in October against the expected reading of +16.2K. By the way, the September reading was revised downwards, from 14.7 to 12.5K.

                            Later, China also published several reports that were quite disappointing. The Chinese statistics are very important for Australia because China is the country’s key trade and economic partner. So, the Industrial Production in China added only 4.7% y/y in October after showing +5.8% y/y the month before. The indicator was expected to fall a little bit (+5.5% y/y), but not as much as it really did.

                            The Retail Sales expanded only by 7.2% y/y in October after adding 7.8% y/y in the previous month.

                            Reasons for this decline are pretty obvious: uncertainty with the trade agreement between the USA and China makes both manufacturers and consumers avid any abrupt movements.

                            On the other hand, the Unemployment Rate improved a bit, 5.1% in October after 5.2% in September. However, this reading couldn’t prevent bears from pushing the pair downwards.

                            Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

                            Comment

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