Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #46
    The Australian Dollar is under pressure again. Overview for 19.11.2019

    AUDUSD is falling on Tuesday morning; the pair remains under bearish pressure.

    The Australian Dollar is retreating against the USD on Tuesday. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6799.

    In the morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia published its latest Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, which couldn’t surprise anybody: the regulator continued following the labor market and assessing external background, which was suffering from global wars.

    At the same time, it’s obvious that major business processes in Australia are slowing down: market players’ attention is completely focused on the trade talks between the US and Chinese officials, who just have no luck signing the first phase of the trade agreement.

    Yesterday, China cut the repo rate for the first time since 2015. This is how the People's Bank of China is giving a boost to the country’s economy and financial system. This news can be perceived as China’s readiness for lengthy negotiations and that’s not a good signal for all risk-related currencies.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

    Comment


    • #47
      The Yen stopped growing, but not for long. Overview for 20.11.2019

      USDJPY stopped falling on Wednesday, but the decline potential remains.

      The Japanese Yen stopped falling against the USD in the middle of the week. The current quote for the instrument is 108.54.

      Demand for the Japanese currency may return at any moment: the US President Donald Trump yesterday once again threatened China to introduce more import tariffs if the trade agreement wasn’t signed on conditions favorable to the White House.

      In the morning, Japan reported on the Trade Balance in October, which showed that the Export plummeted by 9.2% y/y. The indicator has been decreasing for the eleventh month in a row, and that’s the longest period since 2016. The components of the report show that key contributions to the current decline were made by raw materials (-16.5%), manufactured goods (-13.4%), machinery (-12.9%), chemicals (-9.7%), electrical machinery (-8.3%), transport equipment (-7.4%), and foodstuff (-5.2%).

      More than half of the Japanese export goes to Asian countries, so among the main trading partners in Asia, exports were mainly dragged by sales to China (-10.3%), Korea (-23.1%), Singapore (-14.6%), and Thailand (-14.6%). The Export to the USA lost 11.4% y/y.

      The Import in Japan plunged by 14.8% y/y, although market expectations implied -16.0% y/y.

      As one can see, the outside pressure on the Japanese economy is growing: the country is very export-oriented and that’s making it suffer due to global trade wars. All previous delivery schemes, investments, and trade mechanisms stopped working, thus having a negative impact on the Japanese trade balance. As long as the USA and China continue their talks, the situation for Japan will get worse.

      Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

      Comment


      • #48
        The USD did want to grow, but failed nevertheless. Overview for 21.11.2019

        On Thursday, the major currency pair is consolidating after a pretty volatile trading session yesterday.

        EURUSD got into the turbulence zone yesterday, but investors calmed down quite quickly. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1070.

        Investors’ attention is still focused on US-China trade talks. The talks were put on hold, which makes market players very nervous. To get things even more complicated, the US Senate passed a bill that implies annual confirmation of the Hongkong autonomy. Beijing already stated that it would brook no interference into the country’s internal affairs from any third parties, and this story might complicate further trade negotiations. It may well be that the agreement won’t be signed until the end of this year, thus increasing investors’ demand for “safe haven” assets.

        The FOMC Meeting Minutes published yesterday says that there is no need to continue cutting the rate unless the country’s economy gest much worse. The regulator said it believed that the external uncertainty got a bit lower and called the previous rate cut insurance against economic slowdown.

        Today, the macroeconomic calendar offers the Existing Home Sales report for October, which is expected to show 5.49M after 5.38M the month before. Improvement in this component may provide support to the USD.

        Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

        Comment


        • #49
          The Yen has corrected. Overview for 22.11.2019

          On Friday, USDJPY is slowly growing; the Yen paid no attention to the statistics on inflation.

          The Japanese Yen is retreating a little bit against the USD at the end of the week. The current quote for the instrument is 108.63.

          Demand for the Yen is somehow reducing due to some balance in the US-China trade talks. Nothing in particular, but investors calmed down.

          In the morning, Japan reported on inflation in October. The National Core CPI added 0.4% y/y after showing +0.3% y/y in September. The Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy expanded by 0.7% y/y, which is more than the month before (+0.5% y/y).

          The components of the report show that the furniture and household utensils added 4.2%, while clothes & footwear showed +1.2%. At the same time, electricity lost 1.0%, gas 0.4%, transportation & communication 1.0%, education 7.8%, and miscellaneous goods & services dropped by 2.9%.

          Everything would be fine if it weren't for understanding that the inflation surge is extremely temporary: people were buying everything that could become much more expensive than usual before the VAT increase, and that can be clearly seen in the components. Prices will stop rising as early as in November, thus putting pressure on the country’s inflation readings.

          Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

          Comment


          • #50
            EURUSD intends to wait for news. Overview for 25.11.2019

            The major currency pair is waiting for the news and moving pretty calmly early in another November week.

            On Monday, EURUSD is barely moving; investors are still waiting for the news relating to the US-China trade talks. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1025.

            According to Bloomberg, last weekend “China said it will raise penalties on violations of intellectual property rights in an attempt to address one of the sticking points in trade talks with the U.S.” Market players liked this piece of news: it means that the parties are ready to discuss and solve one of the most topical issues in their trade wars. However, there was nothing more, that’s why public markets are quiet once again.

            The statistics published by the USA last Friday were in favor of the USD. The Markit Manufacturing PMI increased up to 52.2 points in November after being 51.3 points the month before. The Markit Services PMI went from 50.6 points in October to 51.6 points this month. Both improvements are very good, but one should remember that the official numbers are usually a little bit worse.

            The Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment was 96.8 points in November against 95.7 points in the previous month and the expected reading of 95.8 points. The indicator stability is very important for the assessment of future demand.

            Today is going to be rather neutral for the major currency pair. It’s highly unlikely that there might be any news relating to trade talks, while the macroeconomic calendar is quite empty.

            Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

            Comment


            • #51
              The Euro is sluggish. Overview for 26.11.2019

              The major currency pair stopped falling; right now, it is consolidating, but it’s not for long.

              EURUSD stopped sliding down. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1013.

              Nothing interesting is happening in financial markets at the moment, so the major currency pair is barely moving as well. Yesterday, the American and Chinese officials talked on the phone and both said that it was necessary to continue negotiations. Nothing special, the same words that were said before on several occasions. In the meantime, investors may finally be tired of waiting endlessly for any progress and bears will take charge.

              There was nothing important or interesting in the information flow, so market players prefer to save their strengths.

              The only thing that makes shake financial market right now is the macroeconomic calendar. In the evening, the USA is scheduled to report on the Trade Balance for October. Apart from this, the country will publish preliminary numbers on the Wholesale Inventories, which may recover after plunging in September, and the New Home Sales (both for October), which is expected to show 708K after being 701K in the previous month.

              One more report that is worth paying attention to is the CB Consumer Confidence, which is expected to go from 125.9 points in October to 126.9 points in November. If it does, this will support the USD.

              Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

              Comment


              • #52
                The Euro is under pressure again. Overview for 27.11.2019

                The major currency pair got under pressure on Wednesday morning; investors can’t find reasons for stability.

                EURUSD moved upwards a little bit yesterday, but this morning the pair lost everything it “gained” earlier. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1009.

                Yesterday, the major currency pair was supported by a gleam of optimism referring to slight progress in the US-China trade talks. However, after the American and Chinese officials talked on the phone and both said that it was necessary to continue negotiations, market players were braced for more details, but nothing happened.

                The statistics published by the USA weren’t too good for the USD. The New Home Sales showed 733K in November after being 738K the month before and it was still better than expected. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence was 125.5 points in November after being 126.1 points in the previous month and against the expected reading of 126.9 points.

                The decline of the indicator means that the consumer sentiment in the USA is getting worse, which, in its turn, means a reduction of expenses. It’s not a good signal for the USD and the American economy.

                There will be a lot of numbers from the USA today. The ones worth paying attention to are the preliminary report on the GDP in the third quarter, which is not expected to change in comparison with the previous reading (1.9% q/q), and the Durable Goods Orders for October, which is pretty volatile and may show 0.5% m/m after being -1.2% m/m in September. For better understanding, one should take a closer look at the components.

                One more interesting thing is the report on Personal Income and Spending: both indicators are expected to add 0.3% m/m, which is equal or a bit better than in the previous month. If the readings are good, they may provide support to the USD.

                Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

                Comment


                • #53
                  The Euro remains under pressure. Overview for 28.11.2019

                  On Thursday morning, EURUSD is consolidating; however, it remains under pressure, mostly because of external background.

                  EURUSD stopped falling and started consolidating, but the market sentiment is still bearish. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1006.

                  External background keeps investors in suspense. Yesterday, the US President Donald Trump signed two Hong Kong laws and Beijing vowed retaliation, thus leading market players to the conclusion that the trade talks may reach a deadlock again. According to Reuters, “The “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act,” which the Senate and House passed last week, puts the special treatment Hong Kong enjoys under U.S. law under tighter scrutiny linked to the extent of the territory’s autonomy from Beijing.” Of course, in American reality, this law may be stretched as the USA chooses. China said on several occasions in the past that it would brook no interference with the country’s internal affairs. So now, after the laws are signed, Beijing is ready to cut the talk and walk the walk.

                  The statistics published by the USA yesterday were rather mixed. The GDP report showed that the second estimation was 2.1% q/q against the first one of 1.9% q/q, and that’s good. However, the Personal Income was disappointing with 0.0% m/m in October after adding 0.3% m/m in the previous month and against the expected reading of +0.3% m/m. At the same time, Personal Spending expanded by 0.3% m/m, the same as expected, which is more than in September.

                  An increase in spending combined with a lack of dynamics in incomes is not a good signal really. End-of-season sales haven’t started yet, so consumers have no reason to spend more than they can afford. Consequently, November readings may show a sharp decline in spending and that will surely have a significant influence on industrial production and the GDP later.

                  Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    The Aussie is ready to update its monthly highs. Overview for 03.12.2019

                    AUDUSD is keeping positive momentum; the RBA’s neutral decision supported the Aussie.

                    The Australian Dollar remains strong against the USD. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6845.

                    The December meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia was over today and the key interest rate was left intact at 0.75%. In 2019, the Australian regulator cut the rate three times and reduced it down to the all-time lowest level. This time, it remained unchanged, but the RBA may continue lowering it in the future.

                    In the comments that followed, the RBA Governor Philip Lowe said that the regulator was ready to continue loosening its monetary policy if necessary. At the same time, it is лотown that the RBA is going to keep the rate low for a long period of time due to different global and domestic factors.

                    Trade wars between the USA and China had a significant influence on the Australian economy: China is the country’s main trade and economic partner, this is why everything that is somehow connected with China is very important for the Green continent.

                    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      The Australian Dollar is correcting. Overview for 04.12.2019

                      After three trading sessions of stable and significant growth, AUDUSD is moving downwards on Wednesday; the correction is supported by numbers.

                      The Aussie started retreating against the USD after several days of growth. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6822.

                      The statistics published in the morning showed that the Australian GDP added only 0.4% q/q in the third quarter after expanding by 0.6% q/q the quarter before and against the expected reading of +0.5% q/q. Nevertheless, on YoY the indicator was 1.7%, which is pretty good.

                      It is evident that three rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia in 2019 haven’t yet provided the country’s economy with the expected support. At the same time, one should admit that it’s typical for the Australian economy to reverse slowly, both upwards and downwards. It means that in the long run, and the RBA shares this outlook, the GDP will feel this impulse and get more dynamic.

                      The Aussie’s drawdown might have been more serious if it hadn’t been for the statistics from China published earlier today. The Caixin Services PMI increased up to 53.5 points in November after being 51.1 points the month before and against the expected reading of 51.2 points. The components of the report show that new orders increased quite well, while employment remained doubtful.

                      In general, today’s market sentiment isn’t in favor of risks due to new details relating to the US-China trade talks and that put additional pressure on the Aussie.

                      Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        The Yen is ready to attack. Overview for 05.12.2019

                        After completing the correction, USDJPY is ready for a new decline; “safe haven” assets are in demand again.

                        The Japanese Yen is rising a bit against the USD on Thursday morning. The current quote for the instrument is 108.83.

                        In the morning, Japan unveiled a $120 billion fiscal boost to fight external risks and support stalling growth. Average forecasts for the Japanese GDP in 2019 imply +0.8+0.9%, but expectations for 2020 are much worse and may be as little as +0.5%. This is too little for such a powerful economy as the Japanese one.

                        No details were announced, but they will be after the package is approved by the Cabinet. However, according to the Reuters, the Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said that “it’s based on three pillars of ensuring disaster rebuilding and safety, providing intensive support to overcome downside economic risks and sustaining economic vitality after the Tokyo Olympics”.

                        The spending will spread over a supplementary budget for this fiscal year to March and an annual budget for the coming fiscal year from April, both to be compiled later this month.

                        The fact that Japan is ready to extend the stimulus program indicates the country’s economy lacks positive momentum. If it hadn’t been for the US-China trade wars, which affect Japan pretty much, the Japanese GDP would have been way better, but alas.

                        Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          The Euro intends to grow. Overview for 06.12.2019

                          The major currency pair remains stable on Friday and intends to continue its growth.

                          EURUSD is keeping its positive momentum at the end of a very volatile week. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1102.

                          The American currency got significantly weaker yesterday due to mixed numbers from the USA. The Factory Orders report showed +0.3% m/m in October after being -0.8% m/m in the previous month. The indicator got a little support from the growth of demand for computers and electronic products, as well as machinery orders, but at the time of weak business activity and manufacturing sector, the growth is rather limited.

                          Transportation equipment orders rebounded by +0.7% after losing 3.2% in September. Civilian aircraft and parts increased by 10.7%, but couldn’t completely recover after showing -19.0% the month before.

                          It’s quite interesting that orders for electrical equipment, appliances and components dropped 1.8%, thus eliminating growth by 0.9% September.

                          Data on the labor market was good: the weekly Unemployment Claims report showed 203K after 213K the week before, which is the lowest value in 7 months. The USA will continue reporting on the employment, including the NFP and the Unemployment Rate. These reports are always interesting for market players and make EURUSD more active.

                          Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

                          Comment


                          • #58
                            The Euro remains under pressure. Overview for 09.12.2019

                            The major currency pair surrendered last Friday because of the American statistics; right now, it is still under pressure.

                            On Monday afternoon, EURUSD is balancing under zero gravity, but bears seem to be pretty strong. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1064.

                            The numbers of the US labor market published last Friday provided as much support to the USD as possible. The Unemployment Rate hit the 50-year low at 3.5% in November after being 3.6% the month before, although the indicator wasn’t expected to change. Another report, the Non-Farm Employment Change showed 266K over the same period of time after being 156K in October. The forecast was 181K, but the actual reading exceeded expectations.

                            The report on the Average Hourly Earnings, which showed +0.2% m/m (worse than both previous and expected readings) couldn’t spoil the mood.

                            Overall, the numbers on the US labor market afforded market players a long-awaited ground for making a pause among the flow of negative news.
                            One more thing to support the American currency was the preliminary report on the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which increased up to 99.2 points in December (better than expected) after being 96.8 points in the previous month. The Current Conditions improved up to 115.2 points, thus indicating the growing optimism of those surveyed in relation to their financial status.

                            Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

                            Comment


                            • #59
                              The Australian Dollar is quietly falling. Overview for 10.12.2019

                              On Tuesday morning, AUDUSD is retreating affected by the statistics from Austalia and China.

                              The Australian Dollar is “losing weight” against the USD on Tuesday. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6825.

                              Today’s statistics from Australia showed that the NAB Business Confidence dropped to 0 points in November after being 2 points in the previous month. The indicator is calculated based on the survey results of staff of the largest Australian companies excluding the agricultural sector. Readings above zero mean optimism, otherwise – pessimism.

                              Chinese inflation reached the highest level since 2012 and now equals 4.5% y/y after being 3.8% y/y in October. However, the actual reading matched the expected one, because the inflation was predicted to increase earlier. The key reason was pork: after the Montgomery swine flu outbreak, the market suffered from pork shortage, thus increasing the CPI. On YoY, pork prices added 110%, on MoM – 3.8% after expanding by 20.1% the month before.

                              The inflation target for China is 3%.

                              There is an assumption that in order to lower the inflation pressure on the country’s economy, the People's Bank of China may devalue the Yuan.

                              All processes in the Chinese economy are important for Australia because China is its key trade and economic partner.

                              Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

                              Comment


                              • #60
                                The Pound started Wednesday in a drawdown. Overview for 11.12.2019

                                GBPUSD is falling on Wednesday morning; investors are “digesting” the statistics and waiting for the US Fed meeting.

                                The British Pound couldn’t keep its positive momentum and right now is falling against the USD. The current quote for the instrument is 1.3130.

                                Yesterday, the United Kingdom published quite interesting numbers, but the Pound barely responded to them, because market players were and still are focused on the upcoming early parliamentary elections, which are scheduled on December 12th. However, there was no news about this topic in the morning, that’s why investors switched to the statistics.

                                The British GDP didn’t change in comparison with the previous reading, although it was expected to add 0.1% m/m. Consequently, the UK’s economy stagnated in October, which is not good for the national currency at all.

                                The Industrial Production added 0.1% m/m in October, thus recovering a little bit after losing 0.3% m/m in the previous month. The forecast was +0.2% m/m, but the sector wasn’t ready for such growth because businesses couldn’t be sure whether the Brexit would happen or postponed again.

                                The Construction Output showed -2.3% m/m in October after being -0.2% m/m in September and against the expected recovery by 0.2% m/m.

                                Today, investors’ attention is focused on the US Fed meeting, the last one this year. As a result, GBPUSD may become more volatile in the evening.

                                Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X