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Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

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  • #76
    The Australian Dollar slowed down its decline. Overview for 09.01.2020

    On Thursday, AUDUSD decided to pause its free fall: it is consolidating close to its two weeks lows.

    The Australian Dollar stopped its decline against the USD for a while. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6871.

    Today’s numbers from Australia showed that the Trade Balance in the country was 5.8B AUD in November against the expected reading of 4.15B.

    Meanwhile, investors are paying very little attention to the domestic Australian statistics right now; they prefer to monitor numbers from China and the external market environment. For example, the Chinese CPI was 4.5% y/y in December, the same as in November, but worse than expected (4.7% y/y).

    The PPI lost 0.5% y/y in December after decreasing by 1.4% y/y the month before.

    Market players are very closely watching what is happening between the USA and Iran. This issue offers a lot of speculations and possible geopolitical pressure, which make the demand for risky assets rather mixed.

    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

    Comment


    • #77
      The Euro remains under pressure. Overview for 10.01.2020

      On Friday, the major currency pair continues trading “in the red”, but bears aren’t as active as they used to be.

      EURUSD is trying to reach stability on Friday morning, but there are still more bears than bulls in the instrument. The current quote for the pair is 1.1108.

      The USA is scheduled to report on its labor market this week. On Wednesday, the country published the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which showed 202K in December after being 124K in November and against the expected reading of 140K.

      Yesterday, the USA published the weekly Unemployment Claims report, which was 214K after being 223K the week before. It’s quite good, although the readings are inside the reference values.

      Later today, investors will be surely interested in the Non-Farm Employment Change, which is expected to show 266K in December after being 162K in the previous month. Another report, the Average Hourly Earnings, is anticipated to show +0.2% m/m in December after expanding by 0.3%m/m in November. Marker expectations relating to the Unemployment Rate are 3.5%.

      The stronger the labor market numbers, the better for the American currency.

      Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

      Comment


      • #78
        EURUSD is keeping its positive momentum. Overview for 13.01.2020

        The Euro continues it positive momentum against the USD that started earlier. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1128.

        Last Friday, the USA published a lot of December numbers of the labor market, which didn’t make investors happy at all. For example, the Non-Farm Employment Change showed 145K in December after being 256K (revised from 266K) in November and against the expected reading of 162K. However, no matter how unimpressive the actual reading turned out to be, it was still better than the indicator’s median value.

        The Average Hourly Earnings added only 0.1% m/m in December, which is about 3 cents. In the previous month, the indicator showed +0.3% m/m and the same growth was expected this time.

        Most likely, these mixed parameters are a result of decline of supply in the labor market. However, it is decreasing not because of serious issues and problems in the sector, but due to oversupply in the market, which can not expand as fast as it did before. Still, the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 3.5%.

        Later in the week, the USA are scheduled to report some interesting numbers, such as CPI, which is expected to add 0.2% m/m in December, the same as the month before.

        Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

        Comment


        • #79
          The Yen plummeted to eight months lows. Overview for 15.01.2020

          USDJPY updated its multiweek highs due to investors’ reduced interest in “safe haven” assets.

          The Japanese Yen reached stability against the USD on Wednesday after plunging to its eight months lows the day before. The current quote for the instrument is 109.92.

          Right now, when market players are eagerly waiting for coveted information relating to the signing of the first phase of the US-China trade agreement, demand for the “safe haven” Yen went down significantly.

          This morning, the BoJ Governor Kuroda spoke and said that despite the slowdown in some Exports parameters and drawdown in business sentiment the Japanese economy was expanding slowly but steadily. According to the BoJ expectations, the country’s economy will continue growing gradually, although it should be noted that problems in global economies had a serious impact on it.

          Officially, the CPI is anticipated to change by approximately 0.5% but may improve up to 2.0% due to a positive difference between production volume and expansion of inflation expectations. Right now, the indicator is pressured by oil prices decline.

          The Bank of Japan emphasized once again that it would expand the money base until the inflation reached 2.0%.

          Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

          Comment


          • #80
            The Pound is recovering, but very slowly. Overview for 16.01.2020

            GBPUSD continues recovering, but this process is quite slow.

            The British Pound is slowly rising against the USD. The current quote for the instrument is 1.3037.

            The CB Leading Index in the United Kingdom lost 0.2% m/m in November after losing 0.4% m/m the month before. The indicator is calculated by the Conference Board and shows average parameters of 10 indicators that describe the country’s economic climate in the next 3-6 months. As we can see, it’s not too good.

            Later today, the United Kingdom is scheduled to report on the RICS House Price Balance in December, which is expected to slow down.

            In addition to that, the Bank of England is preparing its Credit Conditions Survey.

            In general, the British Pound is quite stable right now. There is yet time before the Brexit, which is scheduled for January 31st. but all major Brexit issues have already been agreed on and even approved by the Parliament.

            Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

            Comment


            • #81
              EURUSD is confused. Overview for 17.01.2020

              On Friday, the major currency pair can’t decide where to move; this week has been pretty nervous.

              EURUSD is looking neutral on Friday, but every day this week it was trading differently as investors couldn’t decide on the same direction. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1134.

              The statistics published yesterday showed that the Retail Sales in the USA added 0.3% m/m in December, the same as expected and the November reading. The components of the report show that sales rebounded for food and drinks, clothes, and electronics and appliances and rose faster for gasoline. In contrast, sales of motor vehicles declined. The Core Retail Sales showed +0.7 m/m in December after showing no changes in the previous month and against the expected reading of +0.5% m/m.

              The Import Prices added 0.3% m/m in December and matched market expectations.

              The weekly report on the Unemployment Claims in the USA showed 204K, which is less than 214K the week before. It’s a good piece of news: the labor market is slowly recovering after Christmas and New Year holidays.

              Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

              Comment


              • #82
                The Yen got stronger this morning. Overview for 21.01.2020

                USDJPY is falling on Tuesday morning; demand for “safe haven” assets is reviving.

                The Japanese Yen is strengthening against the USD on Tuesday. The current quote for the instrument is 109.94.

                The first BoJ meeting of the year was over today. It introduced no changes in the regulator’s monetary policy, but market players paid attention to the revision of the country’s GDP upwards and the decreased inflation target.

                However, the key interest rate remained at -0.1%.

                Well, according to the Bank of Japan, the country’s economy will continue to expand but too fast. Probably, in the future, the economy may face a global recession. There is an impulse to boost the country’s inflation towards 2.0%, but it’s not very strong.

                Capital markets, which are rallying at the moment, still have no excessive bullish expectations. Risks of economic destabilization are rated as low because financial institutions have enough capital base.

                Right now, the Consumer Price Index in Japan is about 0.5%.

                Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

                Comment


                • #83
                  The Pound is trying to rise. Overview for 22.01.2020

                  GBPUSD moved upwards a bit thanks to the statistics on the employment, but it might be not enough to continue the momentum.

                  On Wednesday, the British Pound may try to keep yesterday’s momentum against the USD, but bulls might not be strong enough. The current quote for the instrument is 1.3047.

                  It became known yesterday that the Unemployment Rate in the United Kingdom remained unchanged at 3.8% in November, just as expected. As one can see from the report, the employment level added 0.6% and was 76.3%, which is the highest reading over the long haul.

                  The Average Earnings Index showed +3.2% 3m/y, the same as the period before. It appears that the incomes of the British people continue expanding in real terms, which is quite good. However, even with all things considered, the previous numbers made it perfectly clear that the country’s economy was rather weak.

                  The Claimant Count Change showed 14.9K in December, the same as in the previous month. Market expectations were 33.4K.

                  Employers are really worrying that the Brexit uncertainty may continue throughout 2020, thus preventing both enterprises and the employment sector from developing.

                  Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

                  Comment


                  • #84
                    EURUSD is waiting for news. Overview for 23.01.2020

                    The major currency pair is consolidating on Thursday in anticipation of the ECB’s comments and rate decision.

                    EURUSD is quietly waiting for news. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1089.

                    The numbers published by the USA yesterday were quite surprising: the Existing Home Sales was 5.54M in December after showing 5.35M in the previous month and against the expected reading of 5.43M. it’s the highest number over the past two years. The indicator is rising due to low interest rates and may be considered as a perfect indication of the real estate market recovery after the crisis in 2018.

                    On YoY, the indicator added 10.0% in December, which is a terrific number.

                    The components of the report show that the major contribution was made by sales in the south region (+2.2%), where the population density is quite big. On the other hand, sales decline in the west (-1.8%) and Midwest (-1.6%),

                    Today, investors are waiting for the results of the first ECB meeting in 2020 and the regulator’s interest rate decision. A lot of attention will be paid to the comments relating to future monetary policy: due to the slowdown in the GDP growth, many market players find this issue very disturbing.

                    Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

                    Comment


                    • #85
                      The Euro was falling too fast. Overview for 24.01.2020

                      On Friday morning, the major currency pair is moving close to its six weeks low and may yet resume trading downwards.

                      EURSUD had a very stressful Thursday, that’s why it remains under pressure on Friday as well. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1048.

                      Yesterday, the European Central Bank had its first meeting this year, where all key aspects of its monetary policy were left intact. However, the regulator announced that it had revised the purposes and goals of the monetary policy and the ways to achieve them.

                      It seems like the ECB is ready to change its policy for the first time since 2003. In general, it’s not surprising at all: Christine Lagarde inherited a pretty stable system from the former governor, which however no longer shows the expected results. So, it would be okay to adapt the system to new market conditions, but in this case, the regulator will have to revise targets of its key macroeconomic indicators (mostly, downwards) and the tools to achieve them as well.

                      According to Lagarde, the ECB is going to take into account climate risks. Her comments were pretty smooth, that’s why market players decided that the regulator was ready to expand, theoretically, the QE program. However, nothing was said about this.

                      Most likely, the ECB is looking forward to boosting the inflation, but it will be very difficult without expanding the QE.

                      Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

                      Comment


                      • #86
                        The Pound is being dragged down. Overview for 28.01.2020

                        On Tuesday, GBPUSD is retreating under market pressure in anticipation of the Brexit.

                        The British Pound is looking more and more vulnerable against the USD. The current quote for the instrument is 1.3020.

                        A rather clear trend of escaping the risks related to the outbreak of the Chinese coronavirus and its consequences puts additional pressure on the British currency. However, the key driver remains the same, the Brexit, which is only several days away. It seems that market players are very eager to see that the exiting procedure really starts – this fact alone may help the Pound reach stability.

                        At the same time, there are still enough risks, starting from border issues to trade nuances and fees. All these things will have to be discussed and solved later, they will require a lot of time and the transition period may not be enough for that.

                        Later today, one should pay attention to the CBI Realized Sales in January, which is expected to show 5 points after being 0 in December. Any reading above zero means indicates the growth of sales and vice versa. A positive number might support the USD, but the current market pressure is too high.

                        Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

                        Comment


                        • #87
                          The Pound is still being controlled by bears. Overview for 29.01.2020

                          GBPUSD continues falling deeper and deeper on Wednesday afternoon.

                          The British Pound remains weak against the USD. The current quote for the instrument is 1.3011.

                          The statistics from the United Kingdom published yesterday showed that the CBI Realized Sales remained at 0 points in January against the expected reading of 5 points. The reading didn’t make investors happy: everything that is below zero indicates decline, but zero is a pretty negative thing as well because it means that the sector has problems.

                          “Guardian” has reported recently that early in the spring the United Kingdom and the European Union might start talks on further cooperation after the Brexit. According to the media, the date is March 3rd.

                          It’s very important for both parties to start discussing the trade agreement and other issues, such as a single European market and the customs union without wasting time. The existing regulations are effective throughout this year. Earlier, it was reported that these talks may last as long as until the end of 2022. One of the EU representatives said that there were risks of breach between two parties. If it does happen, it will be a major problem for both parties. However, it’s rather unclear who will suffer more, London or Brussels.

                          Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

                          Comment


                          • #88
                            The Pound is trembling in anticipation of the Brexit. Overview for 30.01.2020

                            GBPUSD continues falling on Thursday due to circumstances.

                            The British Pound is still falling against the USD. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2997.

                            Today, the Bank of England is scheduled to have its first meeting this year and decide on its monetary policy. It might well be that there will be more supporters of loosening the policy this time than there were before (last time, only two members out of nine voted in favor of reducing the rate; not they are expected to be three) and that may really put additional pressure on the Pound.

                            The thing that intrigues mostly is whether the BoE reduces the rate now, thus moving away from its familiar conservative approach, or continues waiting and watching the country’s economy declining and fighting for stability, wasting its strengths and time. Under ordinary conditions, the regulator would surely wait, because this approach never failed. However, the current situation is way too different.

                            Tomorrow, January 31st, is the zero hour for the United Kingdom: after many years of waiting, discussing, and approving, the country is expected to start the exiting procedure and leave the European Union. It is another huge thing that pushes the Pound because of the enormous uncertainty.

                            Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

                            Comment


                            • #89
                              The Pound is entering the Brexit in balance. Overview for 03.02.2020

                              Early in February, GBPUSD is slightly correcting, but the Pound is quite safe.

                              Despite a slight correction, the British Pound is looking pretty stable against the USD on Monday morning. The current quote for the instrument is 1.3160.

                              So, the Brexit final took place. At 11 PM, January 31st, the United Kingdom did make a move that was preceded by more than three years of painful political battles of different kinds. Now, the country will have a one-year transition period, during which the UK will have to agree on trade relations with its European partners. There will be tons of work here, which is probably much more important than ever.

                              The fact that the Bank of England didn’t change its monetary policy last week and decided to adhere to its conservative approach (keeping a close and monitoring the situation before making any hasty decisions) is surely positive for the Pound. It means that there are risks, but not more than the country’s economy can’t handle.

                              This week, there will be no significant numbers from the United Kingdom. Market players are still focused on the Chinese coronavirus and the overall attitude to risks. At the same time, investors would love to find any insider information on what is happening inside the Brexit and in the early going it may put some emotional pressure on the Pound.

                              Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

                              Comment


                              • #90
                                The Australian Dollar started recovering. Overview for 04.02.2020

                                On Tuesday, AUDUSD is actively correcting and recovering from the lows of October 2019.

                                The Australian Dollar is growing against the USD on Tuesday. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6718.

                                During its February meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 0.75%. in the comments that followed, the regulator said that it would be ready to loosen its monetary policy if it was necessary to boost the economic growth. However, given the current market environment, the rates will remain low for a long time.

                                According to the RBA, record-low rates have a negative influence on the national currency.

                                The regulator estimates the country’s economic growth at 2.75% in 2020 and 3% In 2021. The inflation is expected to be approximately 2% this year.

                                Among the risks that may influence the country’s economic growth, the RBA mentioned forest fires and the Chinese coronavirus outbreak. At the moment, it’s too early to estimate how much longer the coronavirus will have such a significant influence. However, it’s quite obvious that the virus is another source of uncertainty from the outside, along with trade talks between the USA and China.

                                The RBA was pretty confident in the Australian economy stability and this time it worked for the Aussie.

                                Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

                                Comment

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