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OrderFlowTrading: Foreign Exchange Sentiment & Orderflow Analysis

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  • OrderFlowTrading: Foreign Exchange Sentiment & Orderflow Analysis

    Planning the week ahead
    by JupaFX
    OrderFlowTrading.com


    In this weekly report, we will try to direct our attention to the currency pairs and assets that are most likely to offer trading opportunities during the coming week, based on a combination of sentiment, orderflow, and price action analysis.


    On the docket for this week
    Taking a glance at our calendar, we can notice the more important news events for the week. The main events this week are:

    Monday: Nothing significant – could be a day to spend away from screens!

    Tuesday: CNY Retail Sales + Industrial Prod., GER ZEW, EU ZEW, AUD Budget Release, US Retail Sales (bullish expectations), CAD BoC review, NZD retail sales

    Wednesday: GER Retail Sales, UK Unemployment (bullish expectations), EUR Industrial Prod. (bearish expectations), UK BoE Inflation Report, US PPI, NZD Business PMI, JPY GDP (bullish expectations)

    Thursday: European Council Meeting, GER GDP, EUR CPI + GDP (bearish expectations), US Empire State Manuf. + CPI + Jobless Claims + TIC Flows + Industrial Prod. + Philly Fed + Housing Market Index + Yellen's Speech

    Friday: EUR Trade Balance, US Housing Starts + Building Permits + UofM Sentiment (bearish expectations)


    Strong vs. Weak

    Looking at the CME FX futures market, we can see that:
    • DXY has a long bias, bouncing the 79.00 support and approaching 80.00
    • EUR has a short bias, bouncing recent highs at 1.40
    • CHF has a short bias, bouncing recent highs
    • AUD has a long bias


    So if we combine and filter the most evident FX pairs to analyze, we come up with:
    • EURUSD short bias
    • USDCHF long bias
    • EURAUD short bias


    To understand more about strong vs. weak, keep an eye on heat maps posted to the news feed here.


    Sentiment Analysis on Relevant Assets

    Going into the week, the main longer-term sentiment themes seem to be risks of a hard landing from lending and real estate excesses in China, the continuous tensions in Ukraine which threaten Europe’s energy imports from Russia, the massive fiscal imbalances in the Eurozone (despite what Italy's non-elected PM Renzi says), and Japan. The Loonie has been on the move recently, so looking at Canada, some speak of risks to the housing sector and construction sector. Beyond these background themes, we have quite an exciting week ahead of us (except for Monday) with important macro data.

    USD: sentiment is positive. Regardless of the pressure that Janet Yellen receives by Government officials during her speeches, Taper is still under way and the market has recently been supportive of the greenback. The move in the DXY this week is surely caused also by the Euro (due to it's weight in the basket) but the widespread move of the USD vs. Euro, CHF, GBP shows some USD bids doing the rounds. Will it continue? Retail Sales might provide an excuse.

    EUR: sentiment is negative. Will 1.40 be a significant top? Who cares. For now the market is speculating that Super Mario Draghi will be more accommodative in June, and this is almost an opposite stance to the FED's taper program. Also, the higher Euro was finally showing it's effects on the strongest economy of the Eurozone (Germany), showing a 1.8% drop in exports. Watch this week's CPI and GDP reports to confirm or lighten the negative sentiment in play.

    AUD: sentiment is positive. The Aussie was the most resilient currency last week despite the clear statement by the RBA regarding the impact of a high currency. This is probably due to the strong labor market conditions and the household sector.


    To Sum Up: Best Looking Charts & Comments

    clip_image002_2.png
    EURUSD 4H chart – a rebound could very well be in the cards, but momentum is to the downside.

    clip_image004_2.png
    USDCHF 4H chart – rebounding from .8700s

    clip_image006_2.png
    EURAUD Daily chart – stops sub-.4650 are coming into focus

    More order flow levels on the feed: http://www.orderflowtrading.com/ForexNews.aspx


    It’s a tough challenge to combine sentiment, price action, technical analysis, and fundamental analysis all together to turn these thoughts in to actionable order flow trade ideas. If you still find yourself struggling in that regard, our mindset lessons can help relieve that stress.

    As always, good luck out there!

  • Ryan420
    replied
    European Open Report

    via Ryan @ OrderFlowTrading

    Asian Market Data Overview:
    • No data major data or speeches to move the market in today’s Asian trading session.


    Asian FX rate changes pre-European open
    • USD/JPY 101.88 –10 pips
    • AUD/USD .9358 -10 pips
    • NZD/USD .8680 +10 pips
    • AUD/JPY 95.33 -20 pips
    • NZD/JPY 88.40 flat
    • AUD/NZD 1.0782 -20 pips


    Asian Equities
    • Japan’s Nikkei 225 15,282 –0.61%
    • Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 5,406 -0.49%
    • New Zealand’s NZ50: 5,104 -0.33%
    • HongKong’s Hang Seng 22,895 +0.07%


    Asian session FX flows:
    • Flows out of the Aud & Nzd in to the Yen were the most-prominent. Better than expected U.S. data, comments from the Fed's Plosser, and concerns about the Iraqi situation cited as catalysts.
    • Crude shot up, tripping buy stops on the way off headlines of the US exporting oil & escalating tensions in the middle-east.


    Upcoming Notable Orders
    • AUDJPY – Next cluster of stops sub-95.20 down to bids at 95.0
    • EURAUD – Working in to offers around 1.4525; Buy stops just above at 1.4540
    • EURGBP – Lrg buy stop level remains at 0.8030, above 0.8025 offers.
    • EURJPY – More buy stops remain above 138.90 to be met with heavy offers ahead of 139.0
    • GBPUSD – Large options with 1.70 strikes set to expire at this Thursday($305M) & Friday(262M) cuts.
    • USDJPY – $555M worth of 102.0 strikes for today’s cut. Over 1+yd of options 101.95-102.0 for Thursday’s.


    KEY EVENTS AHEAD times in Eastern US (GMT –4 hours):
    • No top-tier events/data ahead in the Euro session
    • 0830 – USD – US Final GDP q/q for Q1-2014 Fcst at –1.8%, Prev q/q: –1.0%
    Last edited by Ryan420; 06-25-2014, 05:58 AM.

    Leave a comment:


  • Ryan420
    replied
    European Open Report
    6/18/2014 1:30 AM - Ryan

    Asian Market Data Overview:

    Asian FX rate changes during Asian trading session
    • USD/JPY 102.30 +10 pips
    • AUD/USD .9335 flat
    • NZD/USD .8662 +10 pips
    • AUD/JPY 95.50 +10 pips
    • NZD/JPY 88.60 +17 pips
    • AUD/NZD 1.0775 -10 pips



    Asian Equities
    • Japan’s Nikkei 225 15,123 +0.98%
    • Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 5,388 -0.23%
    • New Zealand’s NZ50: 5,193 -0.17%
    • HongKong’s Hang Seng 23,190 -0.06%


    Asian session FX flows:
    • Flows back in to the Nikkei kept the Yen crosses well-bid as fx pairs ran buy stops in Tokyo afternoon.


    Upcoming Notable Orders
    • AUDUSD – Bids at 0.9300, sell stops gathering below.
    • EURJPY – A group of sell stops start at 138.20 down to 138.0
    • EURGBP – Option at 0.7975(150M) set for Wednesday; 0.8010(450M) set for tomorrow's expiration.
    • GBPUSD – Light offers at 1.70; Large buy stops above highs, 1.7010-15.
    • NZDUSD – Heavy offers remain at 0.8700. Stops layered just above.
    • USDCAD – Option at 1.0870(313M) for Wed’s 10am NY cut; Over $660M in Puts btwn 1.0820-1.0850 expiring Friday.
    • More FX order info on Order Flow News Feed


    KEY EVENTS AHEAD times in Eastern US (GMT –4 hours):
    • 0430 – Bank of England interest rate & asset allocation; Expected Unchanged
    • 0715 – BoE’s Weale is due to speak at the Confederation of British Industry briefing lunch in Belfast.

    Leave a comment:


  • Ryan420
    replied
    European Open Report
    6/16/2014 1:44 AM - Ryan

    Asian Market Data Overview:

    Asian FX rate changes during Asian trading session
    • USD/JPY 101.78 -25 pips
    • AUD/USD .9400 flat
    • NZD/USD .8690 +20 pips
    • AUD/JPY 95.76 -20 pips
    • NZD/JPY 88.45 flat
    • AUD/NZD 1.0825 -20 pips


    Asian Equities
    • Japan’s Nikkei 225 14,934 -1.08%
    • Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 5,406 +0.02%
    • New Zealand’s NZ50: 5,178 +0.16%
    • HongKong’s Hang Seng 23,328 +0.04%


    Asian session FX flows:
    • Asia sold off equities off global unrest as conflicts in the middle-east escaladed over the weekend.
    • Steady flows seen going in to the New Zealand dollar & the Great Britain Pound.


    Upcoming Notable Orders
    • AUDJPY – Large offers remain above 96.0; Offers mixed with buy stops at 96.20 & above.
    • AUDUSD – Sell stops at 0.9375; Buyers centered at 0.9350
    • EURAUD – Buy stops start at 1.4465; Offers trail up from 1.4475 to 1.4500
    • EURJPY – Bids 137.80/75, sell stops on break of 137.75 to 137.50 where light bids rest, stops cont. on break below 137.50
    • GBPUSD – Barrier option at 1.70 still valid; Offers set at 1.6990/98 in protection, buy stops on break above.
    • NZDUSD – Offers remain at 0.8690/00; Shorts set to exit positions & buyers on break above 0.8700; Bids at 0.8650/45
    • USDJPY – Layer of buy stops at 102.15; Bids grow in size down to 101.50.
    • More FX order info on Order Flow News Feed



    KEY EVENTS AHEAD times in Eastern US (GMT –4 hours):
    • 0500 – EuroZone: Final CPI y/y (May): May’s Prelim: 0.5% , April’s Final: 0.7%

    Leave a comment:


  • Ryan420
    replied
    European Open Report
    6/10/2014 1:15 AM - Ryan

    Asian Market Data Overview:
    • Australia: NAB’s Business Confidence (May) at 7 vs. April’s 5.8. Home Loans m/m change for April unchanged vs fcst of +0.3%.
    • China: CPI y/y (May) at 2.5% vs 2.4% fcst. PPI y/y (May) at –1.4% vs. –1.5% fcst.
    • The Chinese central bank again sets the Usd/Cny rate lower; strengthening their currency.


    Asian FX rate changes during Asian trading session
    • USD/JPY 102.33 -20 pips
    • AUD/USD .9357 +10 pips
    • NZD/USD .8502 +10 pips
    • AUD/JPY 95.75 -20 pips
    • NZD/JPY 87.00 -10 pips
    • AUD/NZD 1.1008 flat



    Asian Equities
    • Japan’s Nikkei 225 14,974 -0.99%
    • Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 5,466 +0.04%
    • New Zealand’s NZ50: 5,179 -0.15%
    • HongKong’s Hang Seng 23,283 +0.72%



    European Futures
    • Stoxx 50: 3,305 +0.33%
    • FTSE 100: 6,875 +0.24%
    • CAC 40: 4,589 +0.17%
    • DAX: 10,008 +0.21%
    • IBEX 35: 11,164 +0.90%



    Asian session FX flows:
    • Same flows as recent Asian sessions: Nikkei opens higher only to drift lower.


    Upcoming Notable Orders
    • AUDJPY – Offers stacked at 95.95-96.0 to cap further price advance; buy stops set at 96.00-96.10
    • AUDNZD - $140M worth of Calls at 1.10 expiring today; keeping price close. 580M of calls at 1.10 for Thursday.
    • EURUSD – Bids at 1.3570; sell stops sub-1.3570; thin order structure below stops.
    • GBPUSD – Offers 1.6810-30. Buy stops at 1.6850. Sell stops mixed with bids at 1.6780-70. Larger bids at 1.6750
    • NZDUSD - Recent range traps both bulls & bears...
    • More FX order info on Order Flow News Feed



    KEY EVENTS AHEAD times in Eastern US (GMT –4 hours):
    • 0430 – UK Manufacturing Production m/m change for April. Fcst +0.4% Prev +0.5%

    Leave a comment:


  • Ryan420
    replied
    Originally posted by Ryan420 View Post
    Upcoming Notable Orders
    • AUDUSD – Offers remain at 0.9290/0.930
    • GBPJPY – Stops growing above recent highs at 172.10
    Yesterday's stops:

    EurAud:
    euraud.png

    GbpJpy:
    gbpjpy.png

    Leave a comment:


  • Ryan420
    replied
    European Open Report
    6/5/2014 1:40 AM - Ryan

    Asian Market Data Overview:
    • Australia's Trade Balance for the month of April came in at -122M vs. forecasts in the range of +300M to +510M. March’s revised from +730M to +902M
    • HSBC's version of Chinese Services PMI (May) came in at 50.7 vs April’s 51.4. Still over the 50.0 mark.


    Asian FX rate changes during Asian trading session
    • USD/JPY 102.50 -20 pips
    • AUD/USD .9280 +5 pips
    • NZD/USD .8434 +10 pips
    • AUD/JPY 95.15 -15 pips
    • NZD/JPY 86.50 flat
    • AUD/NZD 1.100 -10 pips


    Asian Equities
    • Japan’s Nikkei 225 15,056 –0.08%
    • Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 5,433 -0.21%
    • New Zealand’s NZ50: 5,159 flat
    • HongKong’s Hang Seng 23,109 –0.18%


    European Futures
    • Stoxx 50: 3,237 -0.10%
    • FTSE 100: 6,818 -0.26%
    • CAC 40: 4,501 -0.06%
    • DAX: 9,926 +0.07%
    • IBEX 35: 10,755 -0.20%


    Asian session FX flows:
    • Nikkei 225 opened higher, only to start a steady sell-off in to the afternoon. Bonds rose, so Yen benefitted, taking advantage of Nikkei selling. Flows in to the Yen have subsided for the meantime.
    • The Aud quickly sold off upon poor April trade balance data; not only confirming its trend of lower exports value; but coming in as a negative figure (net importer) when predicted to be positive. The sell-off was quick-lived as the Aud took back any losses and made small gains upon the close.


    Upcoming Notable Orders
    • AUDUSD – Offers remain at 0.9290/0.930
    • EURAUD – Recent Aud strength putting pressure on longs with stops under 1.4640.
    • EURGBP - Stops above 0.8155, larger above 0.8160, offers 0.8175/80
    • GBPJPY – Stops growing above recent highs at 172.10
    • NZDUSD – Up off of noted bids yesterday; more bids remain at 0.8400. Light sell stops under.
    • USDJPY – Lrg option strikes set for expiration today at 102.5(157M) 102.75-80(1,430M) 103.0(536M)
    • More FX order info on Order Flow News Feed


    KEY EVENTS AHEAD times in Eastern US (GMT –4 hours):
    • 0700 – BoE Bank Rate Decision/Asset Purchases - Forecast: Rate & Purchases Unchanged
    • 0745 – ECB Rate Decision - Forecast: 15bp cut from 0.25% to 0.10%

    Leave a comment:


  • Ryan420
    replied
    European Open Report
    6/4/2014 1:40 AM - Ryan

    Asian Market Data Overview:
    • Australian GDP q/q change for Q1 came in surprisingly well at +1.1% vs fcst of +0.9%
    • New Zealand- Fonterra’s Global Dairy Trade index falls -4.2% overnight.


    Asian FX rate changes during Asian trading session
    • USD/JPY 102.65 +10 pips
    • AUD/USD .9265 flat
    • NZD/USD .8410 -20 pips
    • AUD/JPY 95.15 +15 pips
    • NZD/JPY 86.35 -10 pips
    • AUD/NZD 1.1020 +30 pips


    Asian Equities
    • Japan’s Nikkei 225 15,027 –0.04%
    • Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 5,445 -0.65%
    • New Zealand’s NZ50: 5,159 -0.09%
    • HongKong’s Hang Seng 23,125 –0.71%


    European Futures
    • Stoxx 50: 3,2441 -0.21%
    • FTSE 100: 6,836 -0.41%
    • CAC 40: 4,503 -0.27%
    • DAX: 9,919 -0.31%
    • IBEX 35: 10,776 -0.47%


    Asian session FX flows:
    • Sudden short-covering in Aud pairs as the market expected quarterly GDP change would be in-line with expectations, but released a beat.
    • The NZD stayed on the offer as dismal Fonterra auction late yesterday caused lowering of Trade balance forecasts; helping to confirm NZ’s downtrend in recent exports.
    • Japan equities opened higher again on positive Asian growth outlook. Yen crosses pressed against recent highs; breaking to weekly highs mid-Tokyo trading.


    Upcoming Notable Orders
    • AUDUSD – Options expiring at 0.920(310M) & 0.930(160M) may contain price throughout the day post-GDP.
    • EURAUD – Buy stops at 1.4750/60
    • EURJPY – Offers mixed with stops above 139.85. Solid offers set to contain price at 140.0
    • EURUSD – Large options over 1-yrd set to expire at 1.360($1400M), 1.3650($1030M), & 1.370($1536M) helping to keep price in range.
    • NZDUSD – Down in to light bids at 0.8415. Larger bids at 0.8400
    • USDCHF – Offers remain at 0.8995 in protection of 0.900 barrier. Buy stops on break above.
    • More FX order info on Order Flow News Feed


    KEY EVENTS AHEAD times in Eastern US (GMT –4 hours):
    • 0430 – UK Services PMI(May) - Forecast: 58.3 (58.7 prev)

    Leave a comment:


  • Ryan420
    replied
    European Open Report
    6/3/2014 1:40 AM - Ryan

    Asian Market Data Overview:
    • New Zealand Overseas Trade Index Q1’s q/q change in at +1.8% vs forecast of +1.9%; prev +2.3%
    • Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index opens above 15,000 (+0.90%). Highest lvl in 2 months.
    • Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI (May) at 55.5 vs. prev(April) 54.8
    • Australian Retail Sales m/m change (April) in at +0.2% vs fcst +0.3%.
    • Australian Q1 Current Account at –5.1B vs –7.1B fcst
    • Chinese HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (May) at 49.4 vs fcst of 49.7; prev: 49.7
    • RBA leaves rates unchanged at 2.50%. Reiterates period of stability in rates.


    Asian FX rate changes during Asian trading session
    • USD/JPY 102.35 -5 pips
    • AUD/USD .9268 +25 pips
    • NZD/USD .8465 +15 pips
    • AUD/JPY 94.87 +25 pips
    • NZD/JPY 86.65 +20 pips
    • AUD/NZD 1.0950 +15 pips


    Asian Equities
    • Japan’s Nikkei 225 15,070 +0.89%
    • Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 5,485 -0.61%
    • New Zealand’s NZ50: 5,164 -0.27%
    • HongKong’s Hang Seng 23,214 +0.57%


    European Futures
    • Stoxx 50: 3,247 +0.10%
    • FTSE 100: 6,864 +0.29%
    • CAC 40: 4,515 -0.08%
    • DAX: 9,950 +0.07%
    • IBEX 35: 10,827 +0.27%


    Asian session FX flows:
    • Japan equities opened higher on news of the country's pension fund, GPIF, is ready to increase allocation to domestic equities to increase yield. The head of Asset Allocation committee appointed by PM Abe himself. This news kept Yen crosses well-bid but no rallies.


    Upcoming Notable Orders
    • AUDUSD – Lrg 0.920 Puts to expire at US-session’s cut today. $1.50B+ worth of latent bids resting under 0.920; Plus stops under option barrier at 0.9200.
    • USDCHF – Offers remain 0.8995-0.900. Buy stops on break above.
    • More FX order info on Order Flow News Feed



    KEY EVENTS AHEAD times in Eastern US (GMT –4 hours):
    • 0430 – UK Construction PMI(May) - Forecast: 61.2 (60.8 prev)
    • 0500 – EuroZone Flash Estimate y/y (May) Forecast: +0.7% (+0.7% prev)

    Leave a comment:


  • Ryan420
    replied
    European Open Report
    6/2/2014 2:10 AM - Ryan

    Asian Market Data Overview:
    • Over the weekend; Chinese May Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.8 vs forecast of 50.7; previous 50.4.
    • Today; Australia’s Building Approvals m/m change for April was in at –5.6% vs +2.1% forecast, –3.5% prev.
    • New Zealand & Chinese markets were closed due to bank holidays Monday.


    Asian FX rate changes during Asian trading session
    • USD/JPY 101.98 +15 pips
    • AUD/USD .9260 -50 pips
    • NZD/USD .8475 -20 pips
    • AUD/JPY 94.40 -40 pips
    • NZD/JPY 86.38 -10 pips
    • AUD/NZD 1.0930 -30 pips


    Asian Equities
    • Japan’s Nikkei 225 14,935 +2.07%
    • Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 5,518 +0.47%
    • New Zealand’s NZ50: 5,183 CLOSED
    • HongKong’s Hang Seng 23,164 CLOSED


    European Futures
    • Stoxx 50: 3,244 0.00%
    • FTSE 100: 6,844 -0.39%
    • CAC 40: 4,519 -0.24%
    • DAX: 9,943 +0.04%
    • IBEX 35: 10,798 +0.60%


    Asian session FX flows:
    • Strong selling of the Australian dollar on poor building data in April.
    • M&A activity between US & Japan kept the Yen’s crosses well bid along with Asian equity markets.


    Upcoming Notable Orders
    • AUDUSD – Offers steady at 0.9325/30
    • EURGBP – Offers set at 0.8150. Buy stops mixed with light offers at 0.8155 & above.
    • USDCAD – Sell stops sub-1.0810; bids layered ahead of 1.0800 barrier; more stops under.
    • More FX order info on Order Flow News Feed




    KEY EVENTS AHEAD times in Eastern US (GMT –4 hours):
    • German Prelim CPI m/m (May)– Tentative - Forecast: +0.1%
    • UK Manufacturing PMI (May) – 0430 – Forecast: 57.1, 57.3 prev.
    Last edited by Ryan420; 06-02-2014, 06:26 AM.

    Leave a comment:


  • Ryan420
    replied
    European Open Report
    5/30/2014 1:16 AM - Ryan


    Asian Market Data Overview:
    • Japan’s Tokyo Core CPI (May) y/y in at 2.8% vs fcst of +2.9%. April’s household spending y/y in at –4.6% vs fcst of –3.4%. Industrial Production (April) in at –2.5% m/m vs fcst of –2.0%. May forecast to be around –2.0% as well.
    • IMF's Schiff: Japan is just halfway to inflation goal, and appropriate for BoJ to be vague now on exit. More on the IMF’s comments on Japan: "BOJ should clarify asset buying plan beyond 2014 -IMF"
    • Yen Rises on BOJ Outlook; Asian Stocks Pare Monthly Gain


    Asian FX rate changes during Asian trading session
    • USD/JPY 101.60 -15 pips
    • AUD/USD .9330 +20 pips
    • NZD/USD .8505 +15 pips
    • AUD/JPY 94.70 flat
    • NZD/JPY 86.40 flat
    • AUD/NZD 1.0960 flat


    Asian Equities
    • Japan’s Nikkei 225 14,648 -0.23%
    • Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 5,505 -0.25%
    • New Zealand’s NZ50: 5,178 -0.09%
    • HongKong’s Hang Seng 23,062 +0.24%


    European Futures Pre-Open
    • Stoxx 50: 3,244 -0.05%
    • FTSE 100: 6,871 +0.29%
    • CAC 40: 4,530 -0.02%
    • DAX: 9,938 flat 0.00%
    • IBEX 35: 10,734 -0.21%



    Asian session FX flows:
    • Yen starting selling off as CPI data hit the wires. Shortly after the data was digested, the market took a bullish stance on JGBs & the Yen; selling of the Nikkei



    Upcoming Notable Orders
    • AUDUSD – Trades up in to noted offers starting at 0.9325. Buy stops set above 0.9330/5
    • EURAUD – New lows of 1.4590; As price falls, stops accumulate under 1.4560. Bids at 1.4550 to attempt support.
    • EURCHF – Running in to 200HMA offers at 1.2217
    • GBPJPY – Buy stops start at 170.20 through 170.30
    • USDJPY – Bids from importer investment accts set to arrive at 101.50. Light sell stops sub-101.40
    • More FX order info on Order Flow News Feed



    KEY EVENTS AHEAD times in Eastern US (GMT –4 hours):

    No key events ahead

    Leave a comment:


  • Ryan420
    replied
    European Open Report
    5/29/2014 1:50 AM - Ryan

    Asian Market Data Overview:
    • Australia released it’s Q1 change in Private Capital Expenditures q/q at –4.2% vs fcst of –1.6%. Prev q/q revised up to –4.5% from –5.2%.
    • Japanese retail sales y/y (April) in at –4.4% vs forecasts of –3.2%
    • PBoC sets UsdCny’s reference rate at 6.1705 amidst yesterday & today’s strong Cny—>Usd flows.


    Asian FX rate changes during Asian trading session
    • USD/JPY 101.65 -15 pips
    • AUD/USD .9285 +50 pips
    • NZD/USD .8485 -10 pips
    • AUD/JPY 94.40 +35 pips
    • NZD/JPY 86.30 -20 pips
    • AUD/NZD 1.0937 +70 pips


    Asian Equities
    • Japan’s Nikkei 225 14,674 +0.02%
    • Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 5,517 -0.18%
    • New Zealand’s NZ50: 5,183 +0.03%
    • HongKong’s Hang Seng 23,164 +0.37%


    European Futures
    • Stoxx 50: 3,246 +0.06%
    • FTSE 100: 6,851 +0.09%
    • CAC 40: 4,531 +0.04%
    • DAX: 9,939 -0.02%
    • IBEX 35: 10,757 +0.40%


    Asian session FX flows:
    • End-of-the-month flows from Chinese energy importer accounts, buying up the dollar and selling their Yuan for oil helped the Usd/Cny near 52wk highs.
    • Strong selling seen from the Nzd still. Flows in to the Aussie dollar as CapEx forecasts put a bullish theme on the currency. Aussie shorts covering as well as bulls returning.


    Upcoming Notable Orders
    • GBPUSD – With 1.670 gone; Traders taking advantage of a low Gbp & developing long positions with their stops just under 1.6695
    • USDCAD – Bids at 1.0835/45; Offers above range set at 1.0885/95. Option @ 1.090($100M) today (Wed) 1.0870-75(276M) options for Thursday.
    • USDJPY – Over $1.2B worth of options set to expire at 101.60/70 today.
    • More FX order info on Order Flow News Feed


    KEY EVENTS AHEAD times in Eastern US (GMT –4 hours):
    • No key events ahead
    • Swiss, French, & German Banks closed for holiday today.[/I]

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  • Ryan420
    replied
    European Open Report
    5/28/2014 2:05 AM - Ryan


    Asian Market Data Overview:
    • Japan's 5-Year Yield Touches 0.175%, Lowest Seen Since March 4
    • Usd/Cny hits a 1-month high to 6.2636 after a slightly higher fix at 6.1694 (+2% band=6.2928)
    • ANZ’s New Zealand Business Confidence for May in at 53.5 vs. April’s 64.8
    • Australian Construction Work Done q/q change (Q1) in at +0.3% vs. forecast of -0.3%. Prev. (Q4) +1.0%


    Local FX rate changes during Asian session
    • USD/JPY 101.95 -10 pips
    • AUD/USD .9265 +15 pips
    • NZD/USD .8560 -20 pips
    • AUD/JPY 94.45 flat
    • NZD/JPY 87.06 -30 pips
    • AUD/NZD 1.0850 +35 pips


    Equities
    • Japan’s Nikkei 225 14,670 +0.24%
    • Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 5,529 +0.33%
    • New Zealand’s NZ50: 5,145 +0.69%
    • HongKong’s Hang Seng 23,160 +0.94%



    Asian session FX flows:
    • End-of-the-month flows from Chinese energy importer accounts, buying up the dollar and selling their Yuan for oil helped the Usd/Cny near 52wk highs; adding to ‘risk-off’ flows.
    • Strong flows out of the NZD as a downtrend has been confirming in their Business Confidence: http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php#graph=51084



    Upcoming Notable Orders
    • EURGBP – Options today at 0.8095(10M) 0.8100(557M) & 0.8105(100M); to have a magnet affect on further price rises.
    • EURUSD – Up off of bids at 1.3610/15. More down to 1.360 w/ stops under the 1.36 barrier
    • NZDJPY – Bids at 87.0
    • NZDUSD – At 0.8560; Offers & 200HMA set at 0.8580. Light stops above 0.8590 w/ larger offers at 0.8600.Bids start at 0.8525; larger down to 0.8505, mixed with stops poised under April’s 0.8510 & 0.8515 lows.
    • USDCAD – Buy stops remain at 1.0875-80. Bids stacked ahead in protection of 1.0800 barrier.
    • USDJPY – Large 101.9 & 102.0 option strikes to keep price contained.
    • More FX order info (Options Calendars) on Order Flow News Feed



    KEY EVENTS AHEAD times in Eastern US (GMT –4 hours):

    No key events ahead

    Leave a comment:


  • Ryan420
    replied
    European Open Report
    5/27/2014 1:42 AM - Ryan


    Asian Market Data Overview:
    • A slow Asian trading session as it’s followed the UK & US’ holidays today.
    • Asian equities were generally positive; Yen started off weakening against crosses to regain some back as the Nikkei went from +0.87% to finish +0.62%


    Local FX rate changes during Asian session
    • USD/JPY 101.95 flat
    • AUD/USD .9260 +20 pips
    • NZD/USD .8560 +10 pips
    • AUD/JPY 94.40 +20 pips
    • NZD/JPY 87.25 +5 pips
    • AUD/NZD 1.0820 +15 pips


    Equities
    • Japan’s Nikkei 225 14,691 +0.62%
    • Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 5,515 +0.04%
    • New Zealand’s NZ50: 5,145 -0.15%
    • HongKong’s Hang Seng 22,913 -0.24%



    Asian session FX flows:
    • Tokyo flows started with short-covering in Eur/Jpy then saw continued flows in to Gbp/Jpy, Aud/Jpy, & Nzd/Jpy.
    • Usd/Jpy offers above 102.0 remain from Japanese exporter accts.


    Upcoming Notable Orders
    • AUDJPY – Order interest (offers & stops) forming at 94.5
    • AUDUSD – Large option strikes 0.9240-0.9265; totaling $1.3B volume; set for expiration today attempting to contain price. Leveraged sellers await price at 0.9270
    • EURGBP – Large option at 0.8120 set for expiration Tuesday. Sellers rdy to sell a break above, before 1400GMT.
    • GBPJPY – Approaching intraday offers ahead of 172.0
    • GBPUSD – Small bids 1.6825/30 ahead of bids at 1.680; large stops under. Order interest building at 1.6850. Offers at 1.6880/85.
    • USDCAD – Intraday offers forming at 1.0850. Bids stacked ahead in protection of 1.0800 barrier.
    • USDJPY – Large volume of 102.0 options set for expiration in Tokyo & NY cuts to keep price close in a data-less session. Buy stops tipped at 102.10-15
    • More FX order info on Order Flow News Feed



    KEY EVENTS AHEAD times in Eastern US (GMT –4 hours):
    • No key events ahead
    Last edited by Ryan420; 05-27-2014, 06:11 AM.

    Leave a comment:


  • Ryan420
    replied
    ORDERFLOW GAME PLAN 26.5.14
    Planning the week ahead
    by JupaFX


    In this weekly report, we will try to direct our attention to the currency pairs and assets that are most likely to offer trading opportunities during the coming week, based on a combination of sentiment, orderflow and price action analysis.


    1. On the docket for this week

    Taking a glance at our calendar http://www.orderflowtrading.com/Fore...tCalendar.aspx we can notice the more important news events for the week. For the coming week starting May 26th 2014, the main events are:

    Monday: Nothing significant – Memorial Day in the US and Spring Holiday in UK. Long weekend for traders.
    Tuesday: US Durable Goods + Markit PMI + Cons. Conf., GER Retail Sales
    Wednesday: GER Unemployment (bullish expectations), EUR Confidence Reports
    Thursday: CAD Current Account, US Gdp + Jobless Claims + Pending Home Sales
    Friday: CAD Gdp + Ind. Prod., US Personal Income/Spending + Chicago PMI + UoM


    2. Strong vs. Weak

    Looking at the CME FX futures market, we can see that:

    - DXY has a long bias
    - EUR has a short bias
    - CHF has a short bias
    - CAD has a long bias

    So if we combine and filter the most evident FX pairs to analyze, we come up with:

    1) EurUsd short bias
    2) UsdChf long bias
    3) EurCad short bias

    To understand more about strong vs. weak, come over to Orderflowtrading.com and check out our HeatMaps.


    3. Sentiment Analysis on relevant assets


    Going into the week there should be no doubt that traders will not be working on Monday. So we should also do something more productive with our time. We should also try to understand whether the outcome of the EU elections will be influential at all. There's not even much data this week so do not expect it to offer many opportunities. On another note, the quote of the past week came from Ben Bernanke who, in a private meeting, said “I don't expect to see interest rates above 4% for the rest of my life”...how long does he expect to live?

    USD: Sentiment is positive. Positivity last week came not from yields but from housing. This holiday-shortened week, instead, kicks off with durable goods orders, which should continue to point towards a rebound in business capital spending. Sustained strong job growth will need to be seen before consumer confidence can get a breath of fresh air. Q1 GDP could be revised down to show a modest negative on trade and construction. Personal spending may have failed to rise in April, but look for potential upward revisions to March based on stronger retail activity than originally reported. Bottom line is that none of these data prints are interesting from a monetary policy perspective so the impact on the Greenback should be limited.

    EUR: sentiment is negative. The market has probably fully priced in a rate cut by now. Also, economic data out of the EU has been soft (even if still in “recovery territory”). We should take note of the election results from this weekend: the European Parliament Election, the Greek Local Elections and the Ukraine Presidential Election. The sentiment surrounding these political outcomes are quite simple to understand: more euro-skeptics in the EU parliament would mean more difficult policy decisions and more uncertainty (which would be Euro-negative). In Ukraine, the same situation will present itself: building tensions between will weigh on the Euro (and potentially keep a bid beneath Crude?) whereas less tension will be Euro-neutral.

    CAD: sentiment is positive. The Loonie has surprised everyone once again doing what it does best: dancing to it's own rhythm. It shrugged off some negative data prints and has edged up on the back of CPI hitting 2% - the BoC's target. Just like our own Tyler was saying in his chat event on Friday “the most important sentiment driver for FX is Central Bank policy”...and the performance of the Loonie is confirming this view once again. Going into the week, Friday’s Q1 GDP report will get the lion’s share of attention, in an otherwise light calendar.

    For updates on sentiment as it progresses throughout the week, stay active in our live trader chat .


    As always, good luck out there!

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