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Sharp Shooter's Weekly Market Analysis

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  • Sharp Shooter's Weekly Market Analysis

    I have a new trial trader starting next week.

    Sharp Shooter will be joining us on Monday to start his trial.

    He's a full time trader who lives and breathes charts, he trades a swing trading strategy and is fairly active with 5-10 trades per week.

    He has managed hundreds of thousands of dollars on behalf of clients in the past but now prefers to focus on his own capital.

    Look out for his signal in the trading room and please post any questions on this thread. He's indicated that he's very happy to update members on his market analysis and help you guys make better trading decisions.
    Would you like free lifetime access to our forex trading room?

    Open an account at Blueberry Markets and save the $97/monthly fee.

    Click here to find out more.

  • #2
    It will be good to see him start his trail. Does he happen to have a pre-existing myfxbook that he will be willing to share? I will understand completely if he doesn't want to share a personal myfxbook.

    Cheers,
    David

    Comment


    • #3
      Thanks David,

      Unfortunately not. He has a larger account but he's not willing to share details for understandable reasons. So it will be a little while before he has the necessary history to go live.

      There's no rush, and he understands that
      Would you like free lifetime access to our forex trading room?

      Open an account at Blueberry Markets and save the $97/monthly fee.

      Click here to find out more.

      Comment


      • #4
        Very understandable. Thanks for the update!

        Btw, the forum is a very nice addition to the site. Glad you did this.

        Cheers,
        David

        Comment


        • #5
          Hi Everyone,

          I have just joined and I am very excited to be here. I look forward to meeting fellow traders in the forum and if you ever want to talk fx markets, just let me know. I have attached a market analysis I prepared on earlier this week which primarily covers the last week to Friday 17 May 2013. If you are interested and want to download it, just copy/paste the link below into your browser and you will be directed straight to the document. If you have any questions or want to chat further about anything, please do not hesitate to contact me or alternatively add me to your friends list.

          Happy Trading

          https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/...May%202013.pdf

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by SharpShooter View Post
            Hi Everyone,

            I have just joined and I am very excited to be here. I look forward to meeting fellow traders in the forum and if you ever want to talk fx markets, just let me know. I have attached a market analysis I prepared on earlier this week which primarily covers the last week to Friday 17 May 2013. If you are interested and want to download it, just copy/paste the link below into your browser and you will be directed straight to the document. If you have any questions or want to chat further about anything, please do not hesitate to contact me or alternatively add me to your friends list.

            Happy Trading

            https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/...May%202013.pdf
            Thanks SharpShooter,

            Once we get the trading room back in action it will be great to watch you trade live!
            Would you like free lifetime access to our forex trading room?

            Open an account at Blueberry Markets and save the $97/monthly fee.

            Click here to find out more.

            Comment


            • #7
              Hey SharpShooter,

              Very nice performance to date. I am just wondering if you would be able to provide us your max expected DD if you have one.

              Thank you,
              David

              Comment


              • #8
                Hi David,

                Based upon a revised strategy, I am looking to improve max DD to a level around 15% as a worst case scenario by incorporating the following:

                - modification and implementation of stops
                - revision of trades and targets
                - frequency of trades
                - timing and consideration of recovery trades

                The loss per trade that has been recorded would be the maximum loss per trade as it is a set stop. I also have the tendency to adjust this once we are in trade at times. But the loss is manageable enough to be recovered or minimised with subsequent trades in most given scenarios. The stop is standard but my targets vary according to the trade and my objective.

                I hope that helps

                Comment


                • #9
                  Hello,

                  Yes, it helps very much indeed! Good luck. If everything looks good by the time you go live I will definitely be signing up.

                  Cheers,
                  David

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    First Impression is Good !

                    I like his moves on trades, definite one to watch...look forward to the low priced introducing subscriptionoffer !

                    DMINICO

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Hi Guys,

                      Hope you are having a good week so far. I have just uploaded my most recent market analysis to share with you.

                      Just click on the link below and you will be re-directed straight to the document.

                      https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/...May%202013.pdf

                      Thanks,

                      SS

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Market Analysis: Week ending 31st May 2013

                        Sharp Shooter Diary Logo4.jpg
                        Market Analysis: Week ending 31st May 2013


                        Last week started on a quiet note due to Monday being a holiday in other regions of the world, hence affecting market participation, which was more scarce than usual for Monday trading. However this did not affect movement across the majors and their cross pairs in the following days which saw price break from current levels. Direction was mainly set by the USD rather than strong domestic economic data and price reacted to the US economic figures released which also governed the strength/weakness of the USD. In other markets, the European equities markets experienced some weakness, influencing the European session and movement in the commodities markets also contributed to the fx markets.


                        EURUSD


                        Taking the spotlight from the AUD last week was the Euro, which finally broke its range, surging above 130 (top of range), reaching a high of 130606 on Thursday 30 May 2013. This however did not result in a strong finish to the end, as Friday's New York session saw the Euro close just below 130 at 129932. The start of this week has indicated more optimism, with the Euro printing an engulfing breakout pattern that has followed through, now giving the Euro an opportunity to attempt 131 and higher. The next levels to watch as resistance above 131 are 131235 followed by 131934.

                        The increase in risk appetite stumping the Euro from reaching lower lows, was more than likely attributed to the upcoming ECB meeting who are due to meet to discuss monetary policy rather than strong economic figures supporting market sentiment. In fact, some of the figures released last week for the Euro include a rise in Italian unemployment to 12% (representing a 36 year high), the German unemployment rate increasing to 21k from 6k, French retail sales down by 0.3% and Euro Consumer confidence which came in at 21.9% from -22.3%. On the other side, there has been some speculation that the ECB may intervene on rates to maintain credit conditions and introduce negative depository rates, though such a decision would be dependent on current economic conditions and the pace of economic growth.

                        eurusdh1 5 june.jpg


                        GBPUSD


                        The pound followed similar price action to the Euro falling to a low of 150077 on the 29th May. Also fuelled by USD weakness, this then turned into bottom support catapulting GU back towards 151944 by the end of the week. Looking at the 1 hour chart, the low was followed by a strong breakout candle (green marubozu) that led to creating a higher platform holding at around 150550. Once broken, GU moved higher into the 152 region reaching a high of 152223 on the 31st May. In regards to entries, this pattern provided a few long entry opportunities that could have been held into this coming week.

                        The breakout candle from 150215 was the sign to watch and the break from higher consolidation at 151233 would have provided the first entry. As can be seen in the charts, from here GU broke higher and even with the pullback, it still aligned with the low of the previous consolidation before once again breaking even higher. The pullback on Friday was another entry that could have been taken. This pullback fell in line with momentary USD strength reaching a low of 151397. I have highlighted more entries on the chart below for visual reference.

                        There was not much in the way of news and data to stimulate the Pound, except for perhaps the Nationwide Housing Prices which beat forecasted expectations at 1.1% from 0.9% and the Gfk Consumer Confidence which improved to -22 from a previous result of -27. There were also a couple of speeches from Governor Tucker and MPC Member Bean. However any direction towards major economic decisions from the BOE still attract speculation until confirmed.

                        gbpusdh1 5 june.jpg


                        AUDUSD


                        The AUD which has experienced quite a ride down from above parity and currently stands supported with a bottom of 95277. So far the AUD has managed to stay above 96 even heading back towards 97, hitting a high of 96791 on the 30th May due to USD weakness. The AUD started the week opening around mid 96400 falling to a low around 95300. Without much of a catalyst, the AUD traded between this range until Friday's NY session where it closed at 95675. Still maintaining a bearish tone, there has not been much change to the AUD and it continues to trade within a range of 95 - 97. Until the bottom or top of this range is broken, these levels would act as the parameters for intra-day trading. To date, highs are still being sold and bottoms are still being supported, thus indicating a continuation as a bottom has not yet been found.

                        Much like the other pairs, the AUD did not produce all round strong economic figures and this has helped keep the AUD trading within range. However, some figures include Construction (Q1) which came in at -2.0% from a forecast of 1.0 and the Westpac Leading Index which fell to 0.2% from 0.6%. On the positive, building permits (YOY) exceeded expectation at 27.3% from a forecast of 22.5% and beat the previous result of 3.9%. The (MOM) result was also positive at 9.1% from -5.5%.

                        audusdh4 5 june.jpg



                        USDJPY


                        Concerns over Japan have kept UJ contained, opening the week at 101023 and consolidating around 100101 before breaking higher to a high of 102512 on the 29th May. Breaking from consolidation at 100676, UJ moved to a new high of 102512 on 29th May, before falling back to the previous consolidation. From here, it once again attempted another break higher to 101793 on the 30th May, where it was met with rejection and fell to a low of 100216 on Friday 31st May during the later sessions. UJ then accelerated to a high of 101135, closing the week at 100457. Currently UJ is consolidating around 100277 which represents the 76% fib level. This level is an intraday pivot and a break above or below will promote immediate direction.

                        Like the other majors, UJ has also been driven by the strength and weakness of the USD, but in addition it has also been greatly impacted by its own domestic events such as the movement in the Japanese bond markets which has carried uncertainty and led to a big sell off on UJ. This news also contributed to late selling towards the end of the week as well which saw UJ fall from 100700 to 100400. Currently there are discussions regarding what the BOJ should to address their economic situation and in particular its position regarding QE. On the positive, the IMF has been quoted to say that they expect Japan to by grow by 1.6% and 1.4% in 2014. Some figures released for the Yen include Japanese retail trade which came in at -0.1% from -0.3% beating its forecast of -0.4%, Foreign bond investment increased to 1117.3B from 800.6B, Household spending which fell from 5.2% to 1.5% and CPI which also fell from -0.9% to -0.7%. There were also a couple of speeches last week from BOJ board member Miyao and Governor Kuroda.

                        usdjpyh1 5 june.jpg
                        Last edited by SharpShooter; 06-04-2013, 08:42 PM.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Thanks SharpShooter. Don't be shy to come into the trading room to give us some advice as well
                          Would you like free lifetime access to our forex trading room?

                          Open an account at Blueberry Markets and save the $97/monthly fee.

                          Click here to find out more.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Hi Everyone,

                            Firstly I wanted to thank those who have shown your support to me since I came on board. It is always very encouraging for any new person in a group and I truly appreciate it. I am actually posting here today to address the latest trade on GU that I just closed, as I know, it is going to raise question marks. I will start by saying that I do acknowledge and take complete ownership over what has just happened and would like to openly explain and share the situation with you.

                            Yesterday I made some modifications to my MT4 charts and transferred my login to another mt4 program that I normally use on a different screen to monitor higher time frames. Coincidentally, this was also the same program I used to trade larger accounts, so by default it was set to a larger lot size. Yesterday, I did not notice the size of the lot when I placed my trade from the different MT4 program. Following this, I also got caught in a trade that decided to rally 200 pips in one day. This is not a normal daily trading range, although it does happen particularly with strong fundamentals. In hindsight it would have been more practical to cut, but at the time I reverted to the charts and observed that on all higher intra day time frames GU was overbought at very high levels. It made sense that this rally would exhaust, especially given the large daily range. However instead, New York decided to hold at these high levels above 156, without offering as much as a retracement to ease overbought levels or alternatively print a reversal sign to signal the top of a correction. Since we have non farm payrolls due in the New York session, it is possible that we may see some volatility and perhaps even re-testing of levels in the Asia and upcoming European session, so holding the position through two sessions with the probability that we may continue to hold or test higher does not present as the wisest decision. Therefore this morning I decided to cut the position before the ASX opened.

                            So far GU has been consolidating at the highs, reluctant to break as yet, to me this suggests that we could go either way. I have 156121 pinned as an ideal level for a top (reversal or retracement) but breaking this level also serves as support for a continuation. Currently we are trading just below 156 and appear undecided. I would prefer not to chance another attempt to re-test higher if that is indeed the plan. However, my sentiment on the pound still remains within the framework of a correction rather than a bullish reversal. My reasons being due to a mixture of the fundamentals to date combined with the technicals. The outcome of the BOE leaving rates unchanged came in as expected but it still doesn't provide substance in the way of indicating improvements in the British economy. Also, without any supporting announcements regarding monetary policy or commentary to fuel optimism, this does leave the British economy situation in- tact. Confirmation is still necessary to verify its economic position and forecast.

                            To end, I want to let you know that this is an isolated incident. I have remained extremely conservative in my lot size positioning and losses to date as part of my trading strategy. As such, an error such this shall not be repeated and all trades moving forward will resume as normal. If you have any questions or would like to talk to me about anything including my strategy, views on the markets/pairs etc…I am always very happy to be be contacted privately or for you to post on my thread. I know it may be difficult and undeserving, but I do hope that you will not let this affect your perception of me. If it already has, I do hope to have the opportunity to regain your trust in the near future.


                            Hope you have a great end to your trading week and enjoy your weekend!

                            Kind Regards,

                            Sharp Shooter

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              even with wrong lot size trade, one should have a cut loss in mind when trade go against you. You let your account has a floating 61% dd before closing on a 40% loss, this is worrying. I guess you have to prove yourself in the next many months to 1st overcome your dd and 2nd, your style of trading so people may even take another look.

                              Comment

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