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Forex Analysis by LiteForex

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  • Forex Analysis by LiteForex

    With kind permission of the Administration we'll be glad to share our view of the Forex market.


    Example (from yesterday):




    USD/JPY: pair is growing

    Current trend

    Today the pair strengthened amid mixed data from Japan. The Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index for October fell by 0.6% against the previous month, while was forecasted a fall of 0.4%, and by 3.8% against the previous year. At the same time, Machinery Orders for September grew by 7.5%, against forecasted 3.3%.
    The pair is supported by the Bank of Japan decision to continue with easy monetary policy with the tendency of its further easing, and strong labour market data that came out last Friday in the US that significantly increased the chances of interest rates hike in the US in December.
    Today attention needs to be pair to the ECB President Draghi speech, Fed’s Yellen speech and speeches by few other members of the Fed that could increase volatility on the market.

    Support and resistance

    On Friday the pair broke out strong resistance level at 122.50 (38.2% Fibonacci correction) and continues growing towards 123.70 (23.6% correction), 124.50 (upper border of an ascending channel on the daily chart).
    At the same time, a breakdown of the level of 122.50 would lead to a fall towards 121.50 (50% correction), 120.60 (61.8% correction, ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
    OsMA and Stochastic on the daily and weekly charts recommend long positions and turn to purchases on the 4-hour chart.
    Support levels: 122.50, 122.00, 121.50.
    Resistance levels: 123.70, 124.00, 124.50.

    Trading tips

    Pending buy orders can be paced at 123.20 with targets at the levels of 123.70, 124.00, 124.50 and stop-loss at 122.80.
    Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 122.70 with targets at 122.50, 122.10, 121.50 and stop-loss at 123.10.



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  • #2
    AUD/USD: flat after yesterday's growth

    Current trend

    Today, the AUD/USD pair is keeping its positions though the US dollar is strengthening against other currencies. On Thursday, the Australian dollar gained significant support from strong labour market statistics, released in Australia. Thus, Unemployment Rate declined from 6.2% to 5.9% in October, while Employment Change indicated a growth by 58.6K that is about four times above the forecast.
    Australia's economy is export-oriented, thus, it will benefit from a weaker national currency. At the same time, China, as Australia's biggest trading partner, is showing clear signs of economic slowdown, lowering inflation and weakening domestic demand.
    Today, attention needs to be paid to Retail Sales for October and Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November, due in the US. Favorable statistics will strengthen the US dollar.

    Support and resistance

    On Thursday, the price strengthened to the resistance level of 0.7150 (EMA50 on the daily chart, the upper border of a downward channel and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
    On the 4-hour chart, OsMA and Stochastic indicators are turning to short positions.
    If the price fails to overcome the level of 0.7150, a downward trend may resume towards 0.7030, 0.7000 (the lower border of the downward channel), 0.6950 and 06910 (September and year lows).
    On the daily chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend long positions, indicating that the price may continue correcting up and breakout the level of 0.7150.
    Support levels: 0.7100, 0.7030, 0.6950, 0.6910.
    Resistance levels: 0.7150, 0.7190, 0.7325, 0.7390, 0.7500.

    Trading tips

    Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7110 with targets at 0.7030, 0.6960, 0.6910 and stop-loss at 0.7150.
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7170 with targets at 0.7210, 0.7300, 0.7380 and stop-loss at 0.7140.


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    • #3
      USD/JPY: BoJ Governor satisfied with GDP statistics

      Current trend

      Yesterday, the Bank of Japan decided to keep its current monetary policy unchanged. BoJ Governor considers that a decline in the third-quarter GDP was insignificant. However, as many economists suggest, the Regulator may be back to discussion on easing policy at its next meeting, due on 28-29 January.
      At the same time, market participant are getting ready for a hike in the US interest rates. On Thursday, US stock indices declined, while Fed funds futures show a 72% chance of a rate increase in December against a 58% likelihood two weeks ago.

      Support and resistance

      On the daily chart, the USD/JPY pair is trading in an upward channel with the upper border at the level of 129.00.
      OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 4-hour and daily charts recommend short positions, but on the weekly chart, they are giving buy signals.
      The breakdown of 122.50 allows the pair to decline to the support levels of 122.00, 121.50 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and 50.0% Fibonacci). Otherwise, after the breakout of the resistance level of 123.70, the pair would strengthen to 125.00, 125.65 (year highs).
      Support levels: 122.50, 122.00, 121.50.
      Resistance levels: 123.50, 123.70, 124.00, 124.50.

      Trading tips

      Long positions can be opened from the level of 123.10 with targets at 123.70, 124.00, 124.50 and stop-loss at 122.70.
      Short positions can be opened from the level of 122.40 with targets at 122.10, 121.50 and stop-loss at 122.80.


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      • #4
        XAU/USD: technical analysis

        Current trend

        XAU/USD, D1
        On the daily chart, the price remains below its moving averages with periods 10, 20 and 50 that are directed down, which indicates a downward movement in the pair. MACD’s histogram is in the negative zone that also indicates a fall. ADX also suggest decline as the DI lines are heading down and ADX is falling.
        XAU/USD, H4
        On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading near the middle MA of Bollinger Bands, which is directed horizontally. The price remains below its MA10, MA20 and MA50, directed sideways. ADX turned down as it reached the level of 46.30, the DI lines are heading towards each other. MACD is at the zero line.

        Support and resistance

        Support levels: 1065.85 (local low), 1064.63 (last week low).
        Resistance levels: 1075.27 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart), 1080.00, 1081.25 (this week high), 1087.99 (last week high).

        Trading tips

        Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 1066.67 and stop-loss at 1075.27.
        Long positions can be opened from the level of 1076.50 with the target at 1087.00 and stop-loss at 1072.70.


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        • #5
          USD/CAD: in upward trend

          Current trend

          Since the opening of the Asian session, the US Dollar has been growing. Yesterday, the US currency gained support from macroeconomic statistics that strengthened expectations of a hike in US interest rates at the upcoming Fed meeting.
          US Energy Information Administration reported a rise by 0.961 billion barrels in crude oil stocks that added pressure on Canada's currency.
          Amid expectations of US interest rates increase, oversupply of the world oil market and Canada's loose monetary policy, the USD/CAD pair tends to continue growing in the medium term.

          Support and resistance

          Though OsMA and Stochastic on the daily chart recommend short positions, they are still giving buy signals on the weekly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the indicators are turning to long positions as well.
          Long positions remain valid while the price is trading above the key support level of 1.2965 (38.2% Fibonacci and EMA 144 on the daily chart).
          Support levels: 1.3240, 1.3200, 1.3140, 1.3100, 1.3050, 1.2965.
          Resistance levels: 1.3350, 1.3400, 1.3450.

          Trading tips

          Long positions can be opened at the current level or from 1.3310, 1.3290, 1.3260, 1.3230 with targets at 1.3350, 1.3390, 1.3410, 1.3450 and stop-loss at 1.3190.
          Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.3180 with targets at 1.3140, 1.3090, 1.3050, 1.2965 and stop-loss at 1.3220.


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          • #6
            XAU/USD: pair resumed fall

            Current trend

            After Thanksgiving Day in the US yesterday when American markets were closed and volatility remained low, since today’s opening the XAU/USD pair is falling.
            Most likely, amid expectations of monetary policy tightening in the US downward dynamics in the pair will remain until the Fed’s meeting on 16 December.
            Currently, market expectations that are represented by the price of Fed Funds futures stand at 78% probability of an interest rate increase in December.

            Support and resistance

            The pair is falling along a channel on the daily chart with the lower border below the level of 1050.00, and is heading towards 965.00 (ЕМА200 on the monthly chart).
            At the same time, an upward correction is possible to the levels of 1085.00, 1095.00 (ЕМА144 on the 4-hour chart), while a breakout of the level of 1105.00 (the middle line of the upward channel) could send the price towards 1138.00 (38.2% Fibonacci correction, ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
            On all charts from the 4-hour to monthly, OsMA and Stochastic suggest a fall continuation.
            Support levels: 1065.00, 1060.00.
            Resistance levels: 1085.00, 1095.00, 1105.00, 1118.00.

            Trading tips

            Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 1064.00 with targets at 1060.00, 1050.00, 1010.00 and stop-loss at 1072.00.
            Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1078.00 with targets at 1085.00, 1095.00, 1105.00 and stop-loss at 1072.00.


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            • #7
              AUD/USD: pair under pressure

              Current trend

              Today the AUD/USD pair is falling.
              The pair is pressured by investors expectations of an interest rates increase in the US at the December Fed’ meeting and further monetary policy easing in Australia. In addition, Australian economic problems may get worse. The unemployment rate could increase as companies in the mining industry continue cutting investments, while commodities prices keep falling amid slowing Chinese economy.
              Thus, until 1 December when the RBA Interest Rate Decision is due the pair will remain under pressure. If interest rate are increased then, the fall in the pair will accelerate.

              Support and resistance

              Since the beginning of the month, the pair remains in an ascending correctional channel on the 4-hour chart.
              However, a breakdown of the support levels at 0.7200 (ЕМА50), 0.7170 (ЕМА200, ЕМА144, lower border of the ascending channel on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the daily chart) would return the price in a downward channel on the daily chart and sends the pair to 0.7030 (November lows), 0.6950, 0.6910 (year lows).
              OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour and daily charts recommend short positions.
              Support levels: 0.7170, 0.7100, 0.7030, 0.6950, 0.6910.
              Resistance levels: 0.7250, 0.7325, 0.7370, 0.7500.

              Trading tips

              Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 0.7190 with targets at 0.7110, 0.7090, 0.7030, 0.6950, 0.6910 and stop-loss at 0.7220.
              Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 0.7240 with targets at 0.7290, 0.7300, 0.7370 and stop-loss at 0.7190.


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              • #8
                XAG/USD: pair in flat

                Current trend

                Today the XAG/USD pair is growing.
                However, the pair remains under pressure amid investors’ expectations of an interest rates hike in the US in December. According to the Fed Fund Futures, the probability of the rate increase in December is at 78%. On Friday, March futures on silver fell by 12.7 cents, while the WSJ Dollar index remains at 13-year highs.
                Investors’ attention is focused on the US labour market data for November that is due on Friday and which is going to play a key role for the decision on interest rates at Fed’s December meeting.

                Support and resistance

                On the daily chart, the XAG/USD pair is falling along a channel with the lower border below the level of 13.85.
                Prior to the publication of important data the price will stabilise near the level of 14.00 (year lows). An upwards correction towards the level of 14.60 (ЕМА144, ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) is possible. However, a breakdown of the level of 14.00 would accelerate the fall.
                On the 4-hour and daily charts, OsMA and Stochastic are turning to purchases.
                Support levels: 14.00, 13.80, 13.50.
                Resistance levels: 14.35, 14.60, 14.80, 15.30.

                Trading tips

                Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 14.00, 13.80, 13.50 and stop-loss at 14.35.
                Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 14.60 with targets at 15.30, 15.50.


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                • #9
                  USD/CHF: growth potential remains

                  Current trend

                  Since the beginning of this week the USD/CHF pair was falling.
                  However, today poor macroeconomic statistics from Switzerland supported the pair. The SVME – Purchasing Managers’ Index for November fell to 49.7 points, while Real Retail Sales shrank by 0.8%. Both indices came out significantly worse than forecasts. Furthermore, the third quarter GDP grew by only 0.8% against the previous year that was also worse than expected.
                  Today attention needs to be paid to data on the ISM Manufacturing PMI for November from the US that is forecasted to grow from 50.1 to 50.3 points. A high volatility is expected on the market.

                  Support and resistance

                  On the daily chart, the pair is moving along an ascending channel between the levels of 1.0340 and 0.9800. Despite the price is trading at year highs, the growth potential towards the level of 1.0600 (ЕМА144 on the monthly chart) remains in the pair.
                  At the same time, a downward correction to the level of 1.0215 (ЕМА50, lower border of an ascending channel on the 4-hour chart) is possible.
                  On the daily and weekly charts, OsMA and Stochastic indicate a growth continuation, while on the 4-hour chart they turned to sales.
                  Support levels: 1.0215, 1.0130, 1.0000, 0.9880, 0.9800.
                  Resistance levels: 1.0300, 1.0340, 1.0400.

                  Trading tips

                  Pending sell order can be placed from the level of 1.0270 with targets at 1.0190, 1.0100, 1.0080, 1.0000 and stop-loss at 1.0310.
                  Pending buy orders can be placed from the level of 1.0320 with targets at 1.0340, 1.0400, 1.0600 and stop-loss at 1.0280.


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                  • #10
                    USD/JPY: long positions preferred

                    Current trend

                    Since the beginning of Asian session today the USD/JPY pair fell.
                    The pair was pressured by poor data on the Chinese manufacturing sector that showed further cooling of the Chinese economy. In addition, pressure on the pair comes amid investors’ expectations of further monetary policy easing in the eurozone because the Yen serves as the safe-haven currency during market instability.
                    At the same time the pair is supported by expectations of an interest rates hike in the US in December and further monetary policy easing in Japan as it was mentioned before by Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda.

                    Support and resistance

                    On the daily chart, the pair is moving along an ascending channel with the upper border near the level of 124.50, while the last 4 weeks it has been trading in a range between the levels of 123.70 (23.6% Fibonacci correction) and 122.50 (38.2% correction).
                    The pair is prevented from further fall by strong support levels at 122.50, 122.25 (ЕМА144), 122.00 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), while a breakout of the level of 123.70 would send the pair to 125.00, 125.65 (year highs).
                    On the 4-hour, daily and weekly charts, OsMA and Stochastic recommend long positions.
                    Support levels: 122.50, 122.25, 122.00, 121.50.
                    Resistance levels: 123.50, 123.70, 124.00, 124.50.

                    Trading tips

                    Pending buy orders can be placed at the levels of 122.50, 122.25, 122.00 with targets at 123.00, 123.50, 123.70, 124.00, 124.50 and stop-loss at 121.70; and at 123.30 with targets at 123.50, 123.70, 124.00, 124.50 and stop-loss at 122.80.
                    Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 121.40 with targets at 121.10, 120.70 and stop-loss at 121.70.


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                    • #11
                      EUR/USD: general analysis

                      Current trend

                      Yesterday, the European currency strengthened slightly against the US Dollar, which was under pressure from US statistics on ISM Manufacturing PMI. In November, the indicator declined from 50.1 to 48.6 points, while analysts forecasted a growth to 50.4 points.
                      November Data on Consumer Price Index is due today in the EU. The indicator is expected to come in at 0.2%. Even if the forecast is confirmed, a possible growth in the EUR will be limited as ECB is expected to continue easing its monetary policy at the upcoming meeting.
                      Later on, Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen gives her speech. Market participants might get more confirming evidence that the Regulator will raise its interest rates before the year is out. The futures market is pricing in up to a 75.2% probability of a hike at the December meeting.

                      Support and resistance

                      On the 4-hour chart, MACD indicator recommends long positions. Stochastic is giving a sell signal – the indicator has left the overbought zone; the %K line has crossed the %D line from top-to-bottom.
                      A likelier scenario seems to be continuation of downward movement within a descending channel.
                      The nearest support levels are 1.0555, 1.0500.
                      The nearest resistance levels are 1.0688, 1.0762, 1.0820.

                      Trading tips

                      Long positions can be opened if the price breaks out the level of 1.0640 with the target at 1.0685 and stop-loss at 1.0630.
                      Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0590 with targets at 1.0555, 1.0500 and stop-loss at 1.0600.

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                      • #12
                        XAU/USD: price of gold declines

                        Current trend

                        Since the opening of the trading day, the prices of gold and other precious metals are declining amid the strengthening in the US Dollar.
                        The correlation between the price of gold and the EUR/USD pair is nearly 92%. The EUR is under strong pressure ahead of ECB interest rate decision, therefore, a decline in the price of gold is likely to continue.
                        Demand for the USD, on the contrary, continues growing due to expectations of a hike in US interest rates. At present, gold does not seem to be a profitable investment as borrowing costs of buying and storing it tend to increase.

                        Support and resistance

                        Though on the daily chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend long positions, they are giving sell signals on the 4-hour and weekly charts.
                        Short positions are preferable. A growth to 1138.00 (38.2% Fibonacci correction and EMA144) seems possible if the price consolidates above the levels of 1085.00 and 1095.00.
                        Support levels: 1065.00, 1060.00, 1057.00.
                        Resistance levels: 1075.00, 1085.00, 1095.00, 1105.00, 1118.00.

                        Trading tips

                        Short positions can be opened from the level of 1060.00 with targets at 1050.00, 1010.00 and stop-loss at 1072.00.
                        Long positions can be opened from the level of 1076.00 with targets at 1085.00, 1095.00, 1105.00 and stop-loss at 1073.00.


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                        Comment


                        • #13
                          USD/CHF: safe-haven currency

                          Current trend

                          Since the beginning of the week, the USD/CHF pair was declining.
                          The pair was falling despite the publication of poor data in Switzerland that came out significantly worse than forecasts and strong statistics on the US labour market. The Swiss GDP in the third quarter failed to show any growth, Real Retail Sales shrank by 0.8%, while the SVME Purchasing Managersí Index fell to 49.7 points.
                          The main pressure on the pair resulted from increased cautiousness on the market prior to the publication of key statistics in the US that pushed investors to switch their funds into the safe-haven Franc.
                          Today attention needs to be paid to the ECB Press conference and its Interest Rate Decision, Fedís Yellen testifies, FOMC Member Mester speech, and Markit and ISM PMIís in the US.

                          Support and resistance

                          On the 4-hour chart, the pair is moving along an ascending channel with the lower border near the level of 1.0185 and upper border above the level of 1.0340.
                          A downward correction can continue to the levels of 1.0180, 1.0130. At the same time, a growth in the pair can go up to the level of 1.0600 (ЕМА144 on the monthly chart).
                          On the daily chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend short positions, while on the 4-hour chart they are turning to purchases.
                          Support levels: 1.0230, 1.0185, 1.0130, 1.0000, 0.9880, 0.9800.
                          Resistance levels: 1.0300, 1.0340, 1.0400.

                          Trading tips

                          Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 1.0180 with targets at 1.0100, 1.0080, 1.0000 and stop-loss at 1.0220.
                          Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1.0240 with targets at 1.0300, 1.0340, 1.0400, 1.0600 and stop-loss at 1.0190.


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                          Comment


                          • #14
                            AUD/USD: general analysis

                            Current trend

                            The AUD/USD pair is strengthening, though, according to macroeconomic statistics, Australiaís trade balance deficit grew to 3.305 billion.
                            The Australian Dollar is under pressure due to a fall in iron ore prices and uncertainty about Chinaís economic outlook.
                            Today, attention needs to be paid to Initial Jobless Claims and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI statistics. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to decline from 59.1 to 58.0 points that might affect the US Dollar.

                            Support and resistance

                            On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading between the upper and the middle MAs of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above the MA50, MA100 and MA144, all directed up. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, while ADX indicates downward movement.
                            Today, the price is expected to trade within the range of 0.7330-0.7287.
                            Support levels: 0.7287, 0.7261 (MA50).
                            Resistance levels: 0.7330, 0.7342 (local high), 0.7360, 0.7400.

                            Trading tips

                            Long positions can be opened after the consolidation above the level of 0.7330 with the target at 0.7360 and stop-loss at 0.7315.
                            Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7287 with the target at 0.7250 and stop-loss at 0.7300.

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                            • #15
                              Brent: general review

                              Current trend

                              Yesterday the price of Brent crude oil significantly corrected due to a Dollar decline and prior to the OPEC meeting, which is due today.
                              According to the majority of experts, OPEC is not going to reduce quotes despite some speculation that Saudi Arabia can reduce its output. Contrary to that, there is a possibility that quotes will be increased due to Indonesia joining the cartel and Iranís plans to increase output after sanctions are lifted. Therefore, total output could increase to 31 million barrels instead of todayís 30 million barrels a day. In this case, the price of oil might decline below year lows near the level of 42.46.

                              Support and resistance

                              The nearest support level is at 42.46 (yesterday low).
                              The nearest resistance level is at 44.66 (yesterday high).

                              Trading tips

                              Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 42.46 and stop-loss at 44.66.
                              If OPEC decides to reduce quotes at the meeting today, open long positons with the target at 46.44 and stop-loss at 44.00.

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