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Forex Analysis by LiteForex

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  • liteForex GBP/USD: pound is growing

    Current trendSupport and resistanceTrading tips

    Comment


    • liteForex EUR/USD: mixed dynamics in the end of the week

      Current trendSupport and resistanceTrading tips

      Comment


      • liteForex USD/CAD: the pair is trading in different directions

        Current trendSupport and resistanceTrading tips

        Comment


        • liteForex GBP/USD: the pound is under pressure

          Current trend

          The British currency showed a fall against US dollar as a result of trading on Monday, October 16, moving away from local maximums updated last Friday. The reason for negative dynamics were new concerns about Brexit negotiations. Its participants failed to reach visible results despite 5 rounds of talks.
          Moreover, the pound was under pressure from expectations about the release of the data on consumer inflation from the UK and Eurozone on Tueday. The block of British statistics is due at 10:30 (GMT+2), while European data will become available at 12:00 (GMT+2). Annual consumer prices growth rate in the UK is expected to reach 3.0% in September. MoM current growth rate is likely to considerably slow down from +0.6% to +0.3%.

          Support and resistance

          Bollinger Bands in D1 chart are developing downward dynamics gradually reversing horizontally. The price range is narrowing. MACD histogram is growing, preserving a weak buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic has reversed downwards near its maximum values.
          Resistance levels: 1.3290, 1.3336, 1.3400, 1.3454.
          Support levels: 1.3218, 1.3148, 1.3118, 1.3025.

          Trading tips

          Long positions may be opened after breaking through the levels of 1.3290, 1.3300 with targets at 1.3400, 1.3450 and stop-loss at 1.3240. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.
          The development of corrective dynamics with a breakdown of the level of 1.3218 may be a signal for further sales with targets at 1.3118, 1.3100 and stop-loss at 1.3270. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.

          Comment


          • liteForex EUR/USD: trend break or the end of correction

            Current trend

            Euro continues to decrease against USD in view of growing demand for the latter. The dollar received considerable support in view of positive comments by the Fed's representatives and the head. They all view the prospects of US economy development as promising and expect to keep the targets of further monetary policy tightening.

            Moreover, the demand for USD continued to grow due to the beneficial fundamental background. During recent two trading weeks strong data on the labor market, retail sales, and main indexes were released. All these factors had a considerable impact on the rate of EUR/USD which has dropped by almost 150 points since October 12. Today the downward impulse got stronger, and the pair tested the local minimum of 1.1730 once again but failed to break through it.
            An additional catalyst for the fall of the European currency was the comments by Mario Draghi. He pointed out that to restore the Eurozone economy still needed considerable fiscal stimulation.


            Support and resistance

            European currency against USD remains in the long-term upward tendency, therefore it is too early to speak about the break of the trend. From the current level the pair may grow to the levels of 1.1785, 1.1800. In case they are broken through, the pair may return to the local maximum of October at 1.1880. An alternative scenario will be breaking through the level of 1.1730 and dropping to 1.1600, 1.1575.
            Support levels: 1.1730, 1.1715, 1.1665, 1.1600, 1.1575, 1.1550, 1.1500.
            Resistance levels: 1.1775, 1.1785, 1.1800, 1.1830, 1.1860, 1.1880, 1.1900, 1.1925.


            Trading tips

            In this situation it is reasonable to open long positions with target at 1.1880 and stop-loss at 1.1700. At the same time, one may open short positions below the level of 1.1715 with target at 1.1600.

            Comment


            • liteForex AUD/USD: the pair is trading in both directions

              Current trendSupport and resistance

              Bollinger Bands in the D1 chart show flat dynamics. The price range is slightly widening from above. MACD indicator is growing preserving a moderate buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic shows almost no reaction to the instrument's growth attempts this week and preserves a quite stable downward direction.

              Resistance levels: 0.7873, 0.7900, 0.7937, 0.7978.
              Support levels: 0.7832, 0.7807, 0.7769, 0.7731.

              Trading tips

              Long positions may be opened after breaking out the levels of 0.7873 or 0.7900 with targets at 0.7978, 0.8000 and stop-loss at 0.7832, 0.7850. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

              Breaking down the level of 0.7807 may be a signal for further sales with targets at 0.7731, 0.7700 and stop-loss at 0.7850. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.


              Comment


              • liteForex XAU/USD: gold is growing

                Current trendSupport and resistance

                Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show flat dynamics. The price range is actively narrowing from below. MACD indicator is showing uncertain dynamics near the zero mark. Stochastic has reversed horizontally near the level of 20.

                Resistance levels: 1290.67, 1298.33, 1305.65.
                Support levels: 1281.85, 1276.26, 1266.01, 1260.25.

                Trading tips

                Long positions may be opened after the breakthrough of the level of 1290.67 with target at 1305.65 and stop-loss at 1284.00. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

                A breakdown of the level of 1276.26 may be a signal for resuming sales in the short term with target at 1266.01 and stop-loss at 1282.00. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

                Comment


                • liteForex GBP/USD: the pair is uncertain

                  Current trend

                  Last week the pair dropped to 1.3180 (Murrey level [4/8]) where it currently remains. Generally, the market is uncertain before the meeting of the Bank of England scheduled for the next week. Right now the regulator is in a difficult situation: it needs to solve the problem of high inflation and at the same time deal with low salaries that push down the citizens' purchasing capacity. Investors wait for the Bank of England to increase the interest rate and are not ready to be active yet.

                  Ongoing Brexit negotiations remain a negative background for the British currency. The delay causes more and more concerns among businesses in the UK. According to BBC, major British business structures including the Institute of Directors (IoD) and the Conference of British Industry (CBI) wrote a letter to Minister David Davis asking him to regulate the issues in question as quickly as possible. Otherwise the country may lose a considerable share of workplaces and investments. The process is already on: for example, Goldman Sachs started to reduce the staffing of its London representative office and to increase it in Frankfurt.

                  Support and resistance

                  Technically in the D1 chart the price is near the key level of 1.3180 (Murrey [4/8]). It breaks the main trading area into two halves showing market uncertainty. Indicators don't give a clear signal: the volume of MACD histogram is minor, and Stochastic is trying to reverse upwards. The consolidation of the price above the level of 1.3180 and the middle line of Bollinger Bands may lead to further growth to 1.3305 (Murrey [5/8]) and1.3427 (Murrey [6/8]). Otherwise the targets of the decrease will be 1.3060 (Murrey [3/8]) and 1.2940 (Murrey [2/8]).

                  Support levels: 1.3060, 1.2940, 1.2817.
                  Resistance levels: 1.3180, 1.3300, 1.3427.

                  Trading tips

                  In the current situation short positions may be opened from the level of 1.3135 with targets at 1.3060, 1.2940 and stop-loss at 1.3190. Long positions with targets at 1.3305 and 1.3427 may be opened from the level of 1.3245. Stop-loss should be placed at 1.3200.

                  Comment


                  • liteForex USD/JPY: yen in under pressure or poor PMI data

                    Current trend

                    The pair began the week with the upward gap (to the area of 114.00) due to the strong victory of Liberal Democratic Japan party, leading by Shinzō Abe, in the parliamentary elections, which means that the ultra soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan will be developing for a long time. In addition, the market is alerted that Abe plans to increase the national consuming tax from 8% to 10% to increase the social spending. The decision can harm the retail sales, as the growth of tax inevitably affects the consumer spending negatively. When the tax was increased in 2014 in the previous time, the economy entered a recession, so the investors fear the same effect will happen this time.

                    During Monday the price was corrected of 113.30, but now is growing again. Yen is under pressure of poor PMI data. Instead of expected growth in October the indicator decreased from 52.9 to 52.5 points. The pair can grow, if the US Markit Manufacturing PMI and Markit Service PMI, which will be published today, are strong.

                    Support and resistance

                    Technically the price is testing the level of 113.67 (Murray [7/8]) and after the consolidation above it can grow to the levels of 114.06 (Murray [8/8]) and 114.45 (Murray [+1/8]). The indicators reflect the growth development, MACD histogram is growing in the positive zone, Stochastic is reversing upwards near the oversold area. However if US PMI data disappoint the investors, the correction to the level of 112.50 (key Murray [4/8], lower border of Bollinger Bands) can develop.

                    Resistance levels: 113.67, 114.06, 114.45, 114.85.
                    Support levels: 113.28, 112.90, 112.50.

                    Trading tips

                    Comment


                    • liteForex FDAX: Murrey analysis

                      Current trendSupport and resistance

                      Support levels: 12968.8 ([7/8] stop, reversal), 12812.5 ([6/8] rotation, reversal), 12656.3 ([5/8] upper part of the channel), 12500.0 ([4/8] resistance, support).

                      Resistance levels: 13125.0 ([8/8] main resistance), 13281.3 ([+1/8] extreme resistance), 13437.5 ([+2/8] final resistance).

                      Trading tips

                      Sell positions may be opened after the price consolidates below 12968.8 with targets at 12812.5, 12500.0 and stop-loss at 13080.0.
                      Long positions may be opened only after the price consolidates above 13125.0 with targets at 13281.3, 13437.5 and stop-loss at 13000.0.


                      Comment


                      • liteForex GBP/USD: the pair is being corrected

                        Current trend

                        Yesterday's data on the British GDP pushed the pair to 2-week maximums at 1.3275.

                        The growth of the indicators from 0.3% to 0.4% in Q3 2017 gave investors new hope for the first increase of the interest rate by the Bank of England since 2007. The growth of inflation (currently the rate is 3.0%) has long been a concern for the British central bank. Mark Carney said about the possibility of reduction of monetary stimulae already in June. However, the solution has been postponed since then, predominantly due to low salary growth rate in the country which could have influenced the volume of GDP. Now there are no obvious reasons to postpone the increase of the rate. However, the structure of British economic growth is uncertain. In Q3 it was reached mainly due to the sectors of services, trade and IT. Industrial sector showed less growth, and construction one decreased by 0.7%.

                        Support and resistanceTrading tips

                        In the current situation long positions may be opened above the level of 1.3270 with targets at 1.3340, 1.3415 and stop-loss at 1.3230.

                        The consolidation of the price below the level of 1.3180 may lead to reduction to the area of 1.3110 and 1.3030. Stop-loss should be placed at 1.3220.


                        Comment


                        • liteForex GBP/USD: general analysis

                          Current trend

                          In the beginning of the week the GBP/USD grew and almost reached the middle line of Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci corrections around 1.3175.

                          This week the key events for the instrument are the meeting of Fed and of Bank of England. The US regulator is not expected to change the monetary policy. However, the Bank of England can increase the interest rate, but not for sure. On the one hand, the growth of GDP and inflation in the third quarter makes the regulator to cut the monetary stimulation. On the other hand, a number of BOE officials, such as Jon Cunliffe from, declare the total state of the UK economy insufficient for the interest rate increase.

                          The question is open, and any of the BOE decisions will cause significant price movement.

                          Support and resistance

                          Technically the price reached the level of 1.3175 (the middle line of Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci correction 23.6%). If the price is set above this level the further movement to the area of 1.3270 (correction 38.2%) is possible. In case of rebound at the level of 1.3175 the fall to the level of 1.3100 and further to October lows at the area of 1.3030 is possible.
                          Technical indicators readings are mixed. Stochastic has entered the overbought area, which can reflect the possibility of the reversal. On the other hand, MACD histogram is ready to enter the positive zone and form a buy signal.

                          Resistance levels: 1.3175, 1.3270, 1.3340.
                          Support levels: 1.3100, 1.3030, 1.2950.

                          Trading tips

                          Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.3140 with the targets at 1.3100, 1.3030 and stop loss at 1.3180.
                          The consolidation of the price above the level of 1.3175 will make long positions relevant with the targets at 1.3270, 1.3340 and stop loss at 1.3155.

                          Comment




                          • Current trendSupport and resistanceTrading tips

                            Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.1657 with the targets at 1.1718, 1.1779 and stop loss at 1.1625.
                            The consolidation of the price below the level of 1.1596 can lead to the fall to the levels of 1.1535 and 1.1475. Stop loss is near the level of 1.1630.

                            Comment


                            • liteForex GBP/USD: Patrick Harker pushed the pair downwards

                              Current trendSupport and resistance

                              The pair is testing the lower border of the range 1.3122 (Murray [3/8]) and the middle line of Bollinger Bands. The consolidation of the price below will let the price fall to the levels of 1.3061 (Murray [2/8]) and 1.3000 (Murray [1/8]). Otherwise the price can return to the center resistance level of 1.3183 (Murray [4/8]), but it can significantly grow to the levels of 1.3245 (Murray [5/8]) and 1.3305 (Murray [6/8]) only after the breakout of this level. According to reversed downwards Stochastic, the fall is possible.

                              Resistance levels: 1.3183, 1.3244, 1.3305.
                              Support levels: 1.3122, 1.3061, 1.3000.

                              Trading tips

                              Short positions can be opened after the price is set below the level of 1.3122 with the targets at 1.3061 and 1.3000 and stop loss at 1.3140.
                              The rebound of the price from the level of 1.3122 will make short term long positions actual with the target at 1.3183 and further increase of the long positions volumes to the levels of 1.3244 and 1.3305. Stop loss is 1.3090.

                              Comment




                              • Current trend

                                Yesterday USD was falling against Canadian currency, being under pressure after positive Canadian Building dynamics statistics publication. Housing Starts index grew by 222.8K in October against the corresponding month of 2016, while analysts expected the growth only to 210.0K. Building Permits grew by 3.8% MoM in September after the fall by 5.1% MoM in August, while experts suggested the fall by 0.2% MoM.
                                Today the pair is insignificantly growing, waiting for the new rivers to appear on the market. There is no key US and Canadian macroeconomic release expected today, so the volatility will stay low. September New Housing Price Index is due at 15:30 (GMT+2) in Canada. Initial Jobless Claims publication is due at the same time in the USA.

                                Support and resistanceTrading tips

                                Long positions can be opened after the reversal at the level of 1.2700 and breakout of the level of 1.2751 with the targets at 1.2858 or 1.2900. Stop loss is 1.2700. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

                                The steady breakdown 1.2700 can be the signal to open short positions with the target at 1.2600. Stop loss is 1.2751. Implementation period: 2 days.

                                Comment

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