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  • Morning Market Review
    2019-07-02 08:37 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    The euro showed a steady decline against the US dollar on Monday, retreating to June 20 levels. EUR was pressured by ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Europe and China, as well as the general correctional sentiment in favor of the dollar, which remained pressured all last week in view of the start of the G20 summit. The summit ended optimistically. Investors enthusiastically greeted the results of the meeting of Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, who managed to prevent another increase in import duties. In addition, the parties agreed to continue full-format trade negotiations, therefore, there's still a possibility of a final trade deal. Today, the pair is trading in a flat. Investors are focused on the statistics on retail sales in Germany in May and the European producer price indices.

    GBP/USD

    At the beginning of the week, the British pound fell against the US dollar updating local lows of June 20. Traders returned to active sales of the pound amid the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from the UK. In addition, as the trade conflict between the USA and China gradually fades, more and more investors are following the uncertain prospects for Brexit. The Markit Manufacturing PMI in June fell from 49.4 to 48.0 points, with a forecast of a decline to 49.2 points. Consumer lending in May slowed from 0.968 billion to 0.822 billion pounds, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of 0.967 billion. The number of approved mortgage applications in May also showed a decline from 66.045 to 65.409 thousand (forecast 65.600K). On Tuesday, investors expect the publication of the Construction PMI, as well as speech by the Bank of England head Mark Carney.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar fell significantly against the US one on Monday, departing from local highs of May 7. The decline in the instrument was largely technical in nature since it was preceded by a 9-day "bullish" rally of AUD. The instrument was additionally pressured by published macroeconomic statistics from Australia and China. The Australian AiG Manufacturing PMI in June fell from 52.7 to 49.4 points. The Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI in June fell from 50.2 to 49.4 points, with a forecast of 50.0 points. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. Investors are focused on the RBA interest rate decision. As expected, the regulator reduced the rate from 1.25% to 1.00%, explaining that by the need to support inflation and the level of employment.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar rose against the Japanese yen on Monday, updating local highs of June 19. The instrument was supported by positive results of the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, who managed to achieve a temporary truce in a trade conflict. The yen was pressured by published macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Nikkei Manufacturing PMI in June fell from 49.8 to 49.3 points, which turned out to be worse than the expectations of 49.5 points. The consumer confidence index for the same period fell from 39.4 to 38.7 points, against the forecast of growth to 40.4 points.

    Oil

    Oil prices showed a decline on July 1, although multidirectional dynamics was observed during the day. The quotes are strongly supported by the OPEC decision to extend the existing agreement on limiting oil supplies until March 2020. Thus, Saudi Arabia to some extent ignored the demands of Donald Trump to increase the volume of supplies in order to further reduce prices. On July 2, OPEC will hold talks with non-members that have previously joined the agreement. For example, Russia is also expected to support the cartel, which will provide additional support to quotes. Oon Tuesday, investors are also focused on the publication of the API report on oil reserves. Last week, the report showed a sharp decline in stocks of 7.55 million barrels.

    Comment



    • Morning Market Review
      2019-07-11 08:36 (GMT+2)
      EUR/USD

      The euro showed strong growth against the US dollar on July 10, recovering the losses of the last three trading sessions. The reason for the emergence of a strong "bullish" dynamics was the correction of the dollar in response to the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell pointed to the growing uncertainty in the prospects for the American economy, which is deteriorating under the influence of internal and external factors. Investment in the business, according to Powell, continues to decline, which poses a threat of a further slowdown in economic growth. The regulator's head did not name any exact dates for further stimulation, but the market believed in a rate cut of 25 basis points during the meeting on July 30-31. Moreover, a number of analysts believe that the Fed may decide on a stronger reduction in the rate, by 50 basis points at once. Today, the pair is also trading in an uptrend. Investors are focused on statistics on consumer inflation in Germany and France, as well as the publication of information about the latest ECB meeting on monetary policy.

      GBP/USD

      The pound showed the development of correctional dynamics against the US dollar on July 10. The growth of the instrument was facilitated by a decline in the dollar after the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who focused on the negative aspects in the American economy, which prompted investors to return to the idea of the Fed lowering the interest rate during the July meeting. Published macroeconomic statistics from the UK was moderately optimistic. Industrial output in May showed an increase of 1.4% MoM after a decline of 2.9% MoM, which was slightly worse than forecasts of 1.5% MoM. YoY, production grew by 0.9% after declining by 1.1% in April. The experts were expecting 1.1% YoY. GDP in May rose by 0.3% MoM after a decrease of 0.4% MoM a month earlier. But the NIESR assessment of GDP in June was negative: −0.1% against 0.3%.

      AUD/USD

      The Australian dollar returned to a positive trend against the US one, having received support after the speech of Fed Chairman, which increased the risks of a rate cut during the meeting on July 30-31. AUD also ignored weak macroeconomic publications from Australia. Westpac consumer confidence index in July showed a decline of 4.1% MoM after declining by 0.6% MoM last month. Today, the instrument maintains upward dynamics. Moderate support for the "Australian" provides data on the dynamics of mortgage loans. In May, the indicator reached the zero level after a decline of 0.9% MoM in April. Analysts were expecting a decline of 0.6% MoM. Investment loans for the construction of new homes in May declined by 1.7% MoM after declining by 2.2% MoM last month.

      USD/JPY

      The US dollar fell markedly against the Japanese yen on Wednesday. The reason for the emergence of negative dynamics was a sharp increase in the likelihood of a reduction in the Fed's interest rate during the meeting of July 30-31 amid the "dovish" rhetoric of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. More active growth of the instrument was hampered by the aggravation of the trade conflict between Japan and South Korea. Today, there is also a negative trend, despite the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Services PMI in Japan fell by 0.2% MoM in June after rising by 0.8% MoM last month. Analysts were expecting a decline of only 0.1% MoM. In turn, the rate of foreign investment in Japanese bonds supported the yen. For the week of July 5, the volume of investment rose from 58.5 to 192.2 billion JPY.

      Oil

      Oil prices rose sharply on July 10, updating local highs since the beginning of June. The growth of the instrument was facilitated by the large-scale weakening of the dollar after the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. In addition, the quotes were strongly supported by a published EIA report. For the week of July 5, the oil stocks decreased by 9.5 million barrels, which turned out to be significantly more than the expected reduction of 3.567 million. Meanwhile, oil production in the USA increased again from 12.200 to 12.300 million barrels per day.

      Comment


      • Morning Market Review
        2019-07-31 08:39 (GMT+2)
        EUR/USD

        The European currency showed ambiguous trading against the US dollar on Tuesday. The controversial macroeconomic releases from Europe contributed to the decline of EUR, while further growth of USD was hampered by the expectation of lowering the interest rate by the Fed at its meeting on Wednesday, July 31. Industrial Sentiment in the euro area in July showed a decrease to –7.4 points from –5.6 points last month. Analysts expected a decrease to –7.0 points. Business Climate in the euro area in July fell from 0.17 to –0.12 points, which also turned out to be worse than market forecasts of 0.08 points. The data from France were also disappointing. According to preliminary estimates, French GDP in Q2 2019 slowed down from +0.3% QoQ to +0.2% QoQ. French Consumer Spending in June showed a decline of 0.1% MoM after rising by 0.3% MoM last month. On Wednesday, in addition to the minutes of the Fed meeting, the data on euro area's GDP for Q2 2019 and Consumer Price Index for July are expected.

        GBP/USD

        GBP showed a decrease against USD on Tuesday, having updated the record lows of March 14, 2017. Closer to the end of the afternoon session, the instrument was still able to slightly correct, which was caused by the profit taking before the Fed meeting, at which the interest rate can be reduced by 0.25 or 0.50 points. Minor support for the pound on Wednesday is provided by data on Consumer Confidence in the UK. In July, according to the data from Gfk, the index rose from –13 to –11 points, while the forecast did not suggest changes in the indicator. During the day, investors expect the release of Nationwide Housing Price Index for July.

        AUD/USD

        AUD showed a moderate decline against USD on Tuesday, having updated local lows of June 19. During today's Asian session, the pair shows active growth, caused by the expectation of lowering the interest rate by the Fed and the publication of a number of good macroeconomic data from Australia. Australia's Consumer Price Index in Q2 2019 showed an increase of 0.6% QoQ and 1.6% YoY, which was slightly better than market expectations (+0.5% QoQ and +1.5% YoY). In the past quarter the index showed an even more modest growth of +0.0% QoQ and +1.3% YoY.

        USD/JPY

        USD ended the session on Tuesday with a moderate decline against JPY, departing from its local highs of July 10. The correction of the instrument proceeded against the background of disappointing macroeconomic data from Japan on industrial production and the release of the minutes of the Bank of Japan meeting on the interest rate. As expected, the regulator did not change interest rates, confirming its previous intentions. The Bank of Japan has not announced any new stimulation measures for the national economy. During the Asian session on July 31, the pair is trading in both directions. Minor support to the yen is provided by the Housing Starts indicator in Japan. In June, it showed an increase of 0.3% YoY after a decline of 8.7% YoY last month. Analysts expected a decline of –3.4% YoY.

        Oil

        Oil prices showed a moderate increase on Tuesday, supported by the expectation of lowering the interest rate by the Fed for the first time in 10 years. Moreover, some experts believe that the Fed may decide to cut the rate by 0.50 points, since the economic situation is noticeably worsening, and earlier Donald Trump stated that “a small reduction in the rate will not be enough”. Additional support to prices on Tuesday was provided by the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report. For the week as of July 26, the report reflected a decrease in stocks by 6.024 million barrels after a record decline of 10.961 million barrels for the previous period. On Wednesday, investors are awaiting the publication of an official report on oil reserves from the US Department of Energy.

        Comment


        • Morning Market Review
          2019-09-02 08:40 (GMT+2)
          EUR/USD

          The European currency fell significantly against the US dollar on Friday, updating record lows of mid-May 2017. The pressure on the instrument intensified at the end of last week amid the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics from Europe. Retail sales in Germany showed a decrease of 2.1% MoM in July after rising by 3.0% MoM last month. Analysts expected a decline of –1.3% MoM. The EU Core Consumer Price index in August remained at the previous level of +0.9% YoY, while investors expected it to accelerate to +1.0% YoY. Thus, inflation in Europe continues to remain significantly below the ECB target levels, forcing the latter to act more aggressively. A number of analysts believe that the European regulator may resort to new stimulation measures already at the September meeting. In particular, the market does not exclude the possibility of resuming the quantitative easing program.

          GBP/USD

          The British pound showed a moderate decline against the US dollar at the end of last week, continuing the development of the "bearish" impulse formed on August 28. The pound is still under pressure due to the aggravation of the domestic political situation in the UK amid the approach of the Brexit deadline. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson asked the Queen for permission to extend the Parliament summer recess until mid-October, so that they would not be able to pass a bill prohibiting the country from leaving the EU without a valid agreement. Members of the opposition parties said they would try to meet the deadlines. However, official statements often contain calls to declare a vote of no confidence in the government. At the end of last week, moderate support to the pound was provided by data on consumer lending. Net Lending to Individuals in July increased from 4.8 to 5.5 billion pounds. Mortgage Approvals in July rose from 66.51K to 66.26K, which also exceeded the market expectations of 66.17K.

          AUD/USD

          The Australian dollar maintains a moderate downtrend against the US currency, again approaching local lows of August 26. Pressure on the instrument is exerted by the uncertain situation surrounding the US-Chinese trade negotiations, which may resume in September, but, according to many analysts, are unlikely to lead to a noticeable improvement in the situation. Meanwhile, the parties introduced mutual import duties on September 1, which may already negatively affect the growth rate of the global economy. During today's Asian session, the instrument is trading in both directions. US markets are closed due to Labor Day, so the Australian dollar has a chance of correction. Moderate support for the instrument is provided by macroeconomic statistics from Australia and China. AiG Manufacturing index went up from 51.3 to 53.1 points in August. Terms of Trade index in Q2 2019 rose from 1.0% to 1.6%. Caixin Manufacturing PMI in August rose from 49.9 to 50.4 points, exceeding the forecast of 49.8 points.

          USD/JPY

          The US dollar showed a moderate decline against the Japanese yen last Friday, interrupting the development of a "bullish" impulse formed in the middle of the week. The yen was supported by macroeconomic data from Japan published on August 30. The unemployment rate in July fell from 2.3% to 2.2%, while the market expected its growth to 2.4%. Industrial production in July grew by 1.3% MoM and 0.7% YoY, which was significantly better than market expectations. During today's Asian session, the dollar is trading with an increase. The yen is under pressure from Nikkei Manufacturing PMI, which reflected a further decline in business sentiment. In August, the index fell from 49.5 to 49.3 points.

          Oil

          Oil prices showed a negative trend on Friday after moderate growth throughout the past trading week. The quotes decreased against the background of the corrective growth of the American currency, as well as due to published data from Reuters, which indicated an increase in oil production by OPEC. In August, production increased by 80K barrels, showing growth for the first time in 2019. A more confident negative dynamics in the instrument at the end of the last trading week was hindered by the published Baker Hughes report, which reflected a decrease in the number of active drilling rigs over the week as of August 30 from 754 to 742 units. Additional support for quotes is provided by Hurricane Dorian, which last weekend intensified to the highest category and reached the Bahamas, and this night can reach the coast of Florida.

          Comment


          • USD/CHF: the dollar is strengthening
            2019-09-09 08:53 (GMT+2) USD/CHF
            Current trend

            The USD/CHF pair continues to grow moderately, recovering to local highs of September 3. However, a report on the US labor market published last Friday turned out to be ambiguous, which caused a short-term correction of the US currency. Nonfarm Payrolls for August rose by 130K, which turned out to be noticeably worse than forecasts of 157K. Wages also slowed from +3.3% YoY to +3.2% YoY with a forecast of +3.1% YoY.

            Today, during the Asian session, the instrument is trading with a fairly confident increase. On Monday, there is a lack of key US statistics to be published, so European data will be in the spotlight. In Switzerland, a report on the unemployment rate for August will be released. Analysts expect the indicator to remain around 2.3%.

            Support and resistance

            On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are actively growing. The price range is slightly expanding from above, letting the “bulls” renew local highs. MACD indicator restores the upward trend, forming a new buy signal (the histogram consolidates above the signal line). The dynamics of Stochastic is similar, it reversed upwards.

            Current indicators do not contradict the further development of the uptrend in the short and/or ultra-short term. It is better to keep the current long positions in the nearest time intervals.

            Resistance levels: 0.9905, 0.9927, 0.9945.

            Support levels: 0.9876, 0.9858, 0.9835, 0.9797.

            Comment


            • Morning Market Review
              2019-10-17 08:52 (GMT+2)
              EUR/USD

              The European currency rose significantly against the US dollar on Wednesday, updating local highs of September 16. EUR was supported by the macroeconomic statistics from the euro area. Core Consumer Price Index in September rose by 0.4% MoM and 1.0% YoY, which was slightly better than in the previous month (+0.4% MoM and +0.9% YoY). The euro area Trade Balance surplus in August rose from EUR 17.5 to 20.3 billion, exceeding forecasts of EUR 18.9 billion. Additional support for the instrument was provided by the newly improved prospects for a deal between the EU and the UK at today's summit. The EU representatives noted that all the differences were overcome and, theoretically, nothing prevents to conclude a deal before the end of this week. This Saturday, a vote on the final version of the deal is planned in the parliament.

              GBP/USD

              The British pound showed growth against the US dollar on Wednesday, updating local highs of May 15. The pound is supported by good prospects for a deal between the EU and the UK at today’s summit. The summit Chairman Donald Tusk noted that the agreement is ready and it is likely to be signed by all 27 participating countries. Optimistic news also came from the UK, where DUP leaders said they agreed with the Brexit proposals and were ready to support them on Saturday’s vote. Meanwhile, the UK macroeconomic statistics put pressure on the pound. Retail Price Index fell by 0.2% MoM in September after rising by 0.8% MoM a month earlier. Analysts had expected decline by 0.1% MoM. Consumer Price Index in September showed an increase of 0.1% MoM and 1.7% YoY, which turned out to be worse than forecasts of +0.2% MoM and +1.8% YoY.

              AUD/USD

              The Australian dollar showed ambiguous dynamics against the US currency on Wednesday, but is again growing rapidly during today’s Asian session. Some support for the instrument was provided by improved prospects for concluding an agreement between the EU and the UK. In turn, an attempt by US lawmakers to review Hong Kong’s special trade status threatens with new problems in relations with China and a breakdown in the results of trade negotiations. Today, investors are focused on the September statistics on the Australian labor market. Employment Change in September grew by 14.7K against 37.9K a month earlier. Analysts had expected an increase of 15K. At the same time, Full Time Employment increased by 26.2K after a decrease of 13.2K last month, and Part Time Employment decreased by 11.4K after an increase of 51.1K in August. Unemployment Rate in September decreased unexpectedly from 5.3% to 5.2%.

              USD/JPY

              The US dollar fell slightly against the Japanese yen on Wednesday, reversing near its local highs of August 1. The pressure on the US currency, in addition to a number of technical factors, was exerted by weak statistics on the dynamics of US retail sales. Retail Sales in September showed a decrease of 0.3% MoM after an increase of 0.6% MoM a month earlier. Analysts had expected positive dynamics to remain at +0.3% MoM. Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM also declined in September by 0.1% MoM after growth by 0.2% MoM and with the forecast of +0.2%.

              Oil

              Oil prices showed a slight increase on Wednesday, responding to corrective sentiment in the US currency and optimistic signals from OPEC that the agreement on limiting oil supplies could be extended in December. The next meeting of the cartel is scheduled for December 5-6 and should be held in Vienna. Pressure on quotes was exerted by API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Report. For the week as of October 11, the indicator increased sharply by 10.50 million barrels after an increase of 4.13 million barrels over the past period. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of the EIA Crude Oil Inventories.

              Comment


              • Morning Market Review
                2019-11-12 08:46 (GMT+2)
                EUR/USD

                EUR showed correctional growth on Monday, recovering slightly after a steady decline of last week. The uptrend appeared due to technical factors, since no interesting macroeconomic statistics from the US or Europe were released yesterday. American markets were also closed due to Veterans Day. One way or another, investors are still focusing on trade negotiations between the United States and China. Optimism regarding the early conclusion of a preliminary agreement gave way to doubts after Donald Trump announced that he was not going to revise the current policy on increased import duties. Today, the instrument is relatively stable, expecting new drivers to appear on the market. Investors expect the publication of November statistics on ZEW Economic Sentiment, as well as statements by ECB representatives, Coeure and Mersch.

                GBP/USD

                GBP rose significantly against USD yesterday, rising to the local highs of November 5. The pound managed to show growth on Monday, despite the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Industrial Production in September fell by 0.3% MoM after a decline of 0.7% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected decline of 0.2% MoM. In annual terms, production decreased by 1.4% YoY, slightly improving dynamics from the previous month at –1.8% YoY. UK GDP in Q3 2019 showed an increase of 0.3% QoQ after a decrease of 0.2% QoQ in Q2 2019. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.4% QoQ. In annual terms, the British economy slowed down from +1.3% YoY to +1% YoY, which also turned out to be slightly worse than forecasts of +1.1% YoY. Today, the pound remains prone to further growth. Traders are awaiting the publication of UK labor market data for September/October.

                AUD/USD

                AUD fell against USD on Monday, continuing to develop a "bearish" momentum, which has been preserved since the end of last week. Pressure on the instrument is exerted by noticeably worsened prospects for concluding a trade deal between the USA and China. At the end of last week, Donald Trump said that he was not currently considering the possibility of canceling part of the previously imposed import duties, which Beijing insists on. In addition, the parties still did not agree on the time and place of the possible signing of the agreement, which reduces the likelihood that the deal may be concluded in November. Today, the Australian dollar, which opened with the usual decline, is recovering some of the lost ground. The instrument is supported by fairly positive macroeconomic statistics from Australia. NAB Business Confidence rose from 0 to 2 points in October with the neutral forecast. NAB Business Survey rose from 2 to 3 points in October, which exceeded the expectations as well.

                USD/JPY

                USD fell against JPY on Monday, as the negative sentiment regarding the prospects for a trade agreement between the US and China outweighed the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Core Machinery Orders in Japan in September decreased by 2.9% MoM after a decrease of 2.4% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.9% MoM. In annual terms, the indicator increased by 5.1% YoY after the decrease by 14.5% YoY in the previous month. Forecasts suggested an increase of 7.9% YoY. Economy Watchers Current Index in October fell sharply from 46.7 to 36.7 points, while analysts had expected growth to 47.1 points.

                Oil

                Oil prices showed ambiguous trading dynamics on Monday, interrupting the development of weak correctional dynamics. Pressure on quotes is still provided by the uncertain prospect of a trade agreement between the United States and China. Last Saturday, Donald Trump once again emphasized that the deal would be concluded only if it is "useful" for the United States. As for the possible cancellation of some of the introduced import duties, Trump has not yet considered this possibility, which may become another stumbling block for the current negotiations.

                Comment


                • Morning Market Review
                  2019-11-15 08:51 (GMT+2)
                  EUR/USD

                  EUR showed moderate growth against USD on Thursday, interrupting the development of a downward rally since November 4. The appearance of correctional dynamics was facilitated by moderately optimistic macroeconomic statistics from the euro area. German GDP in Q3 2019 increased by 0.1% QoQ, accelerating from the previous value of –0.2% QoQ. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.1% QoQ. In annual terms, GDP increased by 1.0% YoY after falling by 0.1% YoY in Q2 2019. Forecasts suggested an increase of 0.9% YoY. In the euro area, economic growth was less noticeable. In quarterly terms, the EU GDP added the previous 0.2% QoQ, and in annual terms it accelerated from +1.1% YoY to +1.2% YoY.

                  GBP/USD

                  GBP rose against USD on Thursday, rising to local highs, updated earlier this week. The growth of the instrument was largely determined by technical factors, while the macroeconomic background from the UK remained negative. UK Retail Sales in October showed a decrease of 0.1% MoM, despite an expected increase of 0.2% MoM. In annual terms, the indicator strengthened by 3.1% YoY, which coincided with the data for the previous month. Analysts expected an increase of 3.7% YoY. Core Retail Sales for the same period decreased by 0.3% MoM after rising 0.2% MoM in September. In annual terms, the index slowed down from 2.9% YoY to 2.7% YoY against a forecast of 3.4% YoY.

                  AUD/USD

                  AUD closed Thursday trading with a steady decline against USD, updating local lows of October 17. Pressure on the instrument was exerted by disappointing macroeconomic statistics on employment from Australia. October Employment Rate fell by 19.0K after rising by 14.7K in the previous month. Analysts had expected positive dynamics to remain at 15.0K. Australia's Unemployment Rate, as expected, rose from 5.2% to 5.3%. Additional negative impact on the instrument had Chinese data. In October, China's Industrial Production slowed down from 5.8% YoY to 4.7% YoY, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of 5.4% YoY. Retail Sales in China over the same period decreased from 7.8% YoY to 7.2% YoY, which also turned out to be weaker than market forecasts of 7.9% YoY.

                  USD/JPY

                  USD showed a decline against JPY on Thursday, updating local lows of November 4. The growth of the Japanese currency proceeded against the background of the publication of extremely weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Japanese GDP in Q3 2019 increased by 0.1% QoQ after growing by 0.4% QoQ in the previous period. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.2% QoQ. In annual terms, GDP has slowed from 1.8% YoY to 0.2% YoY, with the forecast of 0.8% YoY. Given such weak data, investors fear that the Bank of Japan will take new measures to stimulate the economy, which will put additional pressure on the yen. Anyway, as long as the market remains at a high degree of uncertainty caused by the lack of progress in trade negotiations between the United States and China, the Japanese currency will be in demand.

                  Oil

                  Oil prices showed moderate growth on Thursday, but could not stay at new levels and returned to the red zone closer to the end of the afternoon session. Pressure on quotes was exerted by the report from the US Department of Energy. According to the data, the volume of crude oil in the United States for the week ending November 8 rose by 2.219M barrels after rising by 7.929M barrels for the previous period. Analysts had expected an increase in stocks of 1.649M barrels. The report also indicated a further increase in US oil production from 12.600M barrels to 12.800M barrels.

                  Comment


                  • Morning Market Review
                    2019-11-19 08:34 (GMT+2)
                    EUR/USD

                    EUR showed strong growth against USD on Monday, updating local highs of November 7. The euro was supported by optimistic statements by American officials who again spoke out for the early conclusion of a trade agreement between the United States and China. However, disagreements between the parties remain. The main requirement of Beijing, the cancellation of previously introduced tariffs, remains unfulfilled, and it is unlikely that Donald Trump will decide to change his position on this issue. In turn, China is in no hurry to include the exact volumes of US agricultural imports into the agreement. Today, the euro is trading in both directions, waiting for the appearance of new drivers at the market. Investors are focused on statistics on Construction Output in the euro area. With the opening of the American session, the focus will shift to data on US Housing Starts in October.

                    GBP/USD

                    GBP rose against USD on Monday, noting new local highs since October 22. The growth of the British currency, in addition to the technical factors of the dollar correction, was facilitated by optimistic news after opinion polls, which strengthened the belief in the victory of the Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative party in the upcoming parliamentary elections. In addition, some of the seats in parliament may go to candidates from the Brexit party, led by Nigel Farage. Of course, when voting for a deal in parliament, Farage will support Johnson, which significantly increases the chances of a favorable outcome with the situation with Brexit in December-January.

                    AUD/USD

                    AUD showed flat dynamics against USD on Monday, reacting to the weak macroeconomic background of the beginning of the week. The instrument was slightly supported by data on Foreign Direct Investment in the Chinese economy. In October, investment volumes grew by 6.6% YoY after an increase of 6.5% YoY in the previous month. Today, the pair is falling again, smoothly returning to the local lows updated last week. The instrument is under pressure from the RBA meeting minutes from November 5. Despite the fact that the RBA kept the interest rate unchanged last time, investors fear that the difficult economic situation will force the regulator to take new stimulation measures. The published protocols do not talk about this directly, but they signal a persistent low inflation rate.

                    USD/JPY

                    USD showed growth against JPY on Monday, but could not stay at the occupied highs and returned to the red zone closer to the end of the afternoon session. The growth of the instrument is facilitated by the appearance of a number of optimistic signals regarding trade negotiations between the US and China; however, the parties still did not agree on the time and place of a possible signing of the agreement. Today, the instrument is declining again, and investors expect new drivers to appear on the market. The market is focused on the publication of US statistics on Housing Starts in the United States, as well as a new round of negotiations between Japan and South Korea in the WTO.

                    Oil

                    Oil prices showed a decline on Monday, responding to the emergence of contradictory signals regarding the prospects of signing a trade agreement between the United States and China. In addition, the OPEC+ meeting in early December remains in the spotlight of investors. It is expected that the cartel will decide to extend the current deal to reduce oil production amid continued low demand for oil products. Last week, OPEC announced that it expects a decline in oil demand in 2020 due to ongoing trade wars and a slowdown in the global economy. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report for the week ending November 15.

                    Comment


                    • Morning Market Review
                      2019-11-20 08:54 (GMT+2)
                      EUR/USD

                      EUR showed ambiguous dynamics of trading on Tuesday, halting the development of an active "bullish" impulse, which remained since last Thursday. The development of flat dynamics was facilitated by weak macroeconomic statistics from Europe. Construction Output in September decreased by 0.7% YoY after an increase of 0.8% YoY in the previous month. Experts expected the index to accelerate to 2.7% YoY. In monthly terms, the indicator grew by 0.74% MoM after a decline of 0.82% MoM in August. The indicator was stronger than the forecast of +0.7% MoM. Investors are also focused on an uncertain situation around the US-Chinese trade negotiations. Despite the continued optimistic sentiment of some politicians, the situation seems to have come to a standstill, and so far it seems that Donald Trump will introduce new import duties on Chinese goods on December 15.

                      GBP/USD

                      GBP showed a correctional decline on Tuesday, retreating from the local highs of October 22, updated the day before. Pressure on the instrument was exerted by moderately optimistic macroeconomic indicators from the US. At the same time, GBP was supported by hopes for a positive outcome for the Brexit deal in the upcoming British parliamentary elections in December. According to recent opinion polls, the Conservative party has good chances of winning, which theoretically allows it to get the majority of seats in Parliament and ratify the current version of the agreement with the EU. American statistics indicated a moderate growth in the construction market. Building Permits increased from 1.391M to 1.461M in October with a forecast of 1.385M. Housing Starts in October rose from 1.266M to 1.314M, which only slightly fell short of forecasts of 1.320M.

                      AUD/USD

                      AUD showed moderate growth against USD on Tuesday, updating local highs of November 14. During the day, the instrument mainly declined, remaining under pressure after the publication of controversial minutes of the RBA meeting. In addition, the uncertain situation around the trade negotiations between the US and China, which has been noticeably complicated lately, is also putting pressure on AUD. Today, the instrument has returned to decline. Investors are focusing on publications from Australia, as well as the decision of the People's Bank of China on the interest rate. Westpac Leading Index fell by 0.07% in October, after falling by 0.12% last month. The Chinese regulator, in turn, unexpectedly lowered its interest rate from 4.2% to 4.15%, apparently trying to support an economy that is showing a slowing trend.

                      USD/JPY

                      USD maintains a moderate downward trend, paired with JPY, updating local lows of November 14. Demand for a "safe" yen is growing again as the next local crisis develops in US-China trade negotiations. Donald Trump is still not going to abolish previously imposed import duties, and China is in no hurry to clarify the exact volume of imports of American agricultural products in the agreement. Today, the instrument continues to develop a "bearish" trend, ignoring uncertain macroeconomic publications from Japan. Japanese exports went down by 9.2% YoY in October after the decline by 5.2% YoY in the previous month. Analysts had expected decline of 7.6% YoY. Imports for the same period decreased by 14.8% YoY after a decrease of 1.5% YoY in September. The indicator turned out better than its forecasts of –16% YoY. As a result, the overall Trade Balance in October turned out to be surplus at 17.3B Japanese yen. In the previous month, the trade balance showed a deficit of 124.8B Japanese yen.

                      Oil

                      Oil prices showed a noticeable decline on Tuesday, responding to negative forecasts by analysts regarding the prospects for a trade agreement between the United States and China. Additional pressure on the quotes was exerted by news about an increase in oil production in Norway, as the country managed to start developing the Johan Sverdrup field ahead of schedule. Finally, the American Petroleum Institute report, published on Tuesday, turned out to be a negative factor, showing that in the week ending November 15, US oil reserves rose sharply by 5.954M barrels after a decrease of 0.5M barrels over the past period. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of an official report from the US Department of Energy.

                      Comment


                      • Morning Market Review
                        2019-12-06 08:46 (GMT+2)
                        EUR/USD

                        EUR shows ambiguous trading against USD during today's Asian session, consolidating after strong growth, which, however, failed to lead to the renewal of previous local highs at 1.1115. The European statistics published on Thursday, which turned out to be not the most successful, remain in the spotlight of investors. The EU GDP in Q3 2019 increased by 0.2% QoQ and 1.2% YoY, which coincided with the data of the previous period and the forecasts. At the same time, Retail Sales in October fell by 0.6% MoM after a decline of 0.2% MoM in September. Investors expected a reduction of 0.3% MoM. In annual terms, sales slowed down from 2.7% YoY to 1.4% YoY, which also turned out to be noticeably worse than market expectations of 2.2% YoY. Employment Change in Q3 2019 increased by 0.1% QoQ and 0.9% YoY, which coincided with the dynamics in the previous quarter.

                        GBP/USD

                        GBP is stable against USD during today's Asian session, trading near local highs of May 6. The pound confidently strengthened during the last three trading sessions, which was caused by not the strongest positions of the American currency, and also by the growth of confidence in the Conservative Party's victory in the British parliamentary elections on 12 December. This will allow the Parliament to ratify the deal with the EU and implement Brexit, meeting the new deadlines by the end of January 2020. During the day, investors expect the publication of the November report on the US labor market, which could trigger the appearance of correctional dynamics in favor of the US currency.

                        AUD/USD

                        AUD is strengthening against USD during today's Asian session, adding about 0.14%. The instrument is recovering after the decline yesterday caused by the publication of contradictory macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Australian Exports fell by 5% in October after rising 3% a month earlier. Imports for the same period showed zero dynamics after an increase of 3% in September. Such a significant decline in exports led to a decrease in the trade surplus in October from 6.85B to 4.50B Australian dollars with a forecast of 6.10B. The correctional growth of the instrument during the Asian session is not hindered by the publication of weak AiG Construction Index, which continued to decline in November and fell from 43.9 to 40 points, which turned out to be worse than the average expectations.

                        USD/JPY

                        USD is declining against JPY during the Asian session, losing about 0.07%. The yen is again in demand amid growing uncertainty around US-Chinese trade negotiations. Donald Trump’s restrained statements that “the negotiations are proceeding well” weakly support the market, which is waiting for December 15, when the US may increase import duties on Chinese goods, which can offset all the progress achieved by the parties. Published macroeconomic statistics from Japan on Friday does not support the yen. Average Cash Earnings in October increased by 0.5% YoY, coinciding with the data for the previous month. Analysts had expected a significant increase of 1.1% YoY. Household Spending in October fell sharply by 5.1% YoY after growth by 9.5% YoY in the previous month. Experts expected a decrease of 3% YoY.

                        XAU/USD

                        Gold prices are stable during today's Asian session, trading near 1475.00. Gold quotes have changed little recently since investors expect the situation to develop in a trade conflict between the United States and China. Earlier this week, information appeared that the conclusion of the agreement may have to be postponed to November 2020, when the next presidential election will be held in the United States. Trump later reiterated that “negotiations are going well,” and moderate optimism gradually began to return to the markets. However, there is little time left until December 15, and new import duties, if they are introduced by the USA, will almost certainly put an end to the current progress in the negotiations and everything will have to be started from scratch.

                        Comment



                        • Morning Market Review
                          2019-12-20 08:49 (GMT+2)
                          EUR/USD

                          EUR is showing a moderate decline against USD during today's Asian session. The instrument is preparing to test the level of 1.1110, losing about 0.07%. The "bearish" trend replaced the uncertain growth, which was due to not the most successful macroeconomic statistics from the US on Thursday. US Existing Home Sales in November fell by 1.7% MoM after a 1.5% MoM growth last month. Analysts expected a decline of 0.2% MoM. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in December fell sharply from 10.4 to 0.3 points with a forecast of a decrease of only 8 points. During the day, investors expect publication of statistics from the United States on annual GDP growth rates for Q3 2019 (updated data) and the dynamics of Personal Income and Spending for November. The euro area is expected to release Consumer Confidence data in December, as well as Current Account balance statistics for October.

                          GBP/USD

                          GBP is relatively stable against USD during today's Asian session, consolidating after the next "bearish" session the day before. UK macroeconomic data released yesterday turned out to be worse than market expectations. Retail Sales in the UK in November fell by 0.6% MoM after zero dynamics in October. Analysts had expected growth by 0.3% MoM. In annual terms, Retail Sales growth slowed down from 3.1% YoY to 1% YoY, which also turned out to be worse than forecasts of 2.1% YoY. The results of the meeting of the Bank of England did not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the instrument, since they fully met the expectations of the market. The key interest rate was maintained unchanged at 0.75%, as well as the volume of the quantitative easing program at 435 billion pounds. 7 out of 9 board members voted to maintain the key rate at the same level.

                          AUD/USD

                          AUD shows moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, adding about 0.17%. AUD is still supported by the strong report on the Australian labor market released yesterday. The Employment level in Australia in November rose by 39.9K jobs after falling by 19K in October. Experts expected the employment to grow by14K only. The November Unemployment Rate fell from 5.3% to 5.2%, while analysts did not expect any changes. Participation Rate remained at the previous level of 66%. The development of "bullish" trend in the instrument is also facilitated by the publication of not-so-good macroeconomic statistics from the US on Existing Home Sales.

                          USD/JPY

                          USD declines slightly against JPY during today's Asian session, losing about 0.02%. Support for the yen is provided by macroeconomic statistics from Japan published on Friday. The national Consumer Price Index in November showed an increase of 0.5% YoY after an increase of 0.2% YoY in October. Analysts had expected a previous growth rate of 0.2% YoY. National CPI ex Food, Energy rose by 0.8% YoY in November, accelerating from 0.7% YoY. Experts expected the index to correct to 0.6% YoY. During the day, traders expect the release of data from the US on the dynamics of GDP growth for Q3 2019, as well as the publication of information on Personal Income and Spending of Americans in November.

                          XAU/USD

                          Gold prices are stable during today's Asian session, consolidating after a slight increase the day before. Support for the instrument, in addition to not the most successful macroeconomic statistics from the USA, is provided by the growth of uncertainty around future US-Chinese trade negotiations and the situation around the impeachment of Donald Trump. The House of Representatives voted in favor of impeachment, and now the president will have to stand trial in the Senate. However, given that the Senate is controlled by Trump's party members, it is unlikely that impeachment will take place.

                          Comment


                          • Morning Market Review
                            2020-01-08

                            EUR/USD

                            Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is moderately declining, developing a “bearish” momentum formed yesterday. Tuesday’s EU macroeconomic statistics slightly supported the instrument; however, the market remains unstable amid the intensification of the crisis in US-Iranian relations after the death of a high-ranking Iranian military commander as a result of a US Air Force military operation. In November, EU Retail Sales accelerated growth from +1.7% YoY to +2.2% YoY, which was significantly better than market expectations of +1.3% YoY. Also, the index grew by 1.0% MoM after a decline by 0.3% MoM last month. Consumer inflation data were more restrained. In December, CPI accelerated from +1.0% YoY to +1.3% YoY, which coincided with analysts' forecasts.

                            GBP/USD

                            Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair develops flat trading dynamics in the short term. There was a lack of UK key macroeconomic statistics on Tuesday, so the news from the United States prevailed. Also, the market continues to closely monitor the development of the conflict in the Middle East, fearing the onset of full-fledged military clashes between the US and Iran. Yesterday, it became known that Iran launched missile strikes on two US facilities in Iraq, attacking the Ain al-Assad airbase and Erbil airfield. USD position was supported by data on business activity. In December, according to ISM, the Service PMI grew from 53.9 to 55.0 points, ahead of forecasts by 54.5 points. Today, investors are focused on the UK Halifax House Price Index release for December and the US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change publication for the same period.

                            AUD/USD

                            Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is growing uncertainly, being corrected after yesterday’s record decline. Now, the instrument has added about 0.08%, testing the level of 0.6871 for a breakout. The price is moderately supported by the data from Australia. Thus, Building Approvals for November rose by 11.8% MoM after a decrease of 7.9% MoM last month. Analysts expected a more modest increase in the rate of +2.0% MoM. In annual terms, the index slowed down the decline from –22.9% YoY to –3.8% YoY.

                            USD/JPY

                            Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is falling, correcting after growth at the beginning of the week. Now, the instrument is trading at 108.33, while at the opening it fell sharply to 107.64 (a local low since October 10, 2019), which was caused by conflicting reports from the Middle East. After the US missile attack in Iraq, where a high-ranking Iranian general died, the relations between the countries deteriorated sharply, and the market even started talking about the possibility of a large-scale war. Yesterday, there was information that Iran launched two missile attacks on US military facilities in Iraq. Published Japanese macroeconomic statistics affected JPY ambiguously. Thus, Average Cash Earnings for November fell by 0.2% YoY after zero dynamics last month. Analysts expected a significant increase of +0.6% YoY. At the same time, the consumer confidence index in December unexpectedly increased from 38.7 to 39.1 points against the forecast of 38.0 points.

                            XAU/USD

                            Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are again actively rising, renewing record highs. At the opening of the trading session on Wednesday, the instrument managed to reach the level of 1611.06, above which gold was previously traded in March 2013 but later the rate was noticeably corrected. The reason for such a powerful growth is the US-Iranian conflict in the Middle East, which could develop into a full-fledged war. A meeting of the UN Security Council is due to take place in New York on Thursday, at which, as expected, ways to resolve the situation will be discussed. However, previously, the media reported that the United States refused a visa to Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Jawad Zarif, which could only increase tension between the countries.

                            Comment


                            • Morning Market Review
                              2020-01-31

                              EUR/USD

                              EUR is slightly decreasing against USD during today’s Asian session, correcting after active growth the day before, which brought the instrument to local highs of January 24. EUR is losing about 0.06%, testing the level of 1.1020 for a breakdown. Macroeconomic statistics from Europe published yesterday turned out to be mixed. Services Sentiment in the euro area in January fell from 11.3 to 11 points against the forecast of 11.2 points. The Business Climate Indicator for the same period increased from –0.32 to –0.23 points; however, it turned out to be worse than expectations of –0.19 points. Unemployment Rate in the euro area in December fell from 7.5% to 7.4%. At the end of the current trading week, investors expect the publication of January statistics on consumer inflation in the euro area. It is expected that price growth at the beginning of the month will slightly accelerate from 1.3% YoY to 1.4% YoY.

                              GBP/USD

                              GBP is trading near zero against USD during today’s Asian session, maintaining the “bullish” momentum formed the day before. GBP responded with active growth to the publication of the Bank of England meeting minutes. The British regulator kept the interest rate at the previous level of 0.75%, and the volume of the asset purchase program was maintained at the level of 435B pounds. At the same time, the distribution of votes for maintaining the rate and for its reduction also remained the same. 2 members of the regulator spoke in favor of easing monetary policy, while 7 voted for its preservation. Until the end of 2020, investors are still counting on a rate reduction. Now traders are focused on the Brexit process. Britain should leave the EU today, January 31, at 23:00 London time, after which it will begin a broad discussion with the EU in the framework of concluding a free trade agreement.

                              AUD/USD

                              AUD maintains a downward direction of trading against USD during today’s Asian session, trading near the local lows, updated the day before. The instrument loses about 0.13% and approaches the level of 0.6700. The market is focused on macroeconomic statistics from Australia on the dynamics of Producer Prices and the volume of Private Sector Credit in December. In Q4 2019, production inflation increased by 0.3% QoQ, slowing down from the previous value of 0.4% QoQ. In annual terms, prices slowed from 1.6% YoY to 1.4% YoY. Private Sector Credit volumes in December did not change and amounted to the previous 0.2% MoM. In annual terms, the indicator accelerated from 2.3% YoY to 2.4% YoY. Minor support for the instrument is also provided by Chinese data. Services PMI in January increased from 53.5 to 54.1 points with a neutral outlook.

                              USD/JPY

                              USD is showing moderate growth against JPY during today’s Asian session, correcting after the predominantly “bearish” trading session. The pressure on JPY is provided by ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Tokyo CPI excluding Fresh Food slowed in January from 0.8% YoY to 0.7% YoY with a neutral outlook. Retail Trade in December fell by 2.6% YoY after a decrease of 2.1% YoY a month earlier. The forecast assumed a decrease of 1.8% YoY. Industrial Production in December grew by 1.3% MoM after a decline of 1% MoM in November. Analysts had expected an increase of 0.7% MoM. In annual terms, production maintained negative dynamics at the level of –3% YoY, having improved from the previous value of –8.2% YoY.

                              XAU/USD

                              Gold prices are relatively stable during today’s Asian session, but retain a weak downward momentum from the previous trading session. Gold continues to be supported by the risk of the spread of coronavirus, which to date has already led to the death of more than 170 people. Strengthening of the instrument is also facilitated by not the most stable positions in USD, which is prone to correction after the January Fed meeting on rates. Today, traders are focused on the statistics from the United States on the dynamics of Personal Income and Spending for December.

                              Comment


                              • Morning Market Review
                                2020-02-04

                                EUR/USD

                                At the opening of trading this week, the EUR/USD pair was actively declining, partially offsetting a steady growth at the end of last week. The development of the “bearish” dynamics was due to the strengthening of the US currency across the entire spectrum of the market, while the macroeconomic background provided little support to the euro. Thus, EU Markit Manufacturing PMI for January rose from 47.8 to 47.9 points with a neutral forecast. However, US PMI statistics were even better. US Markit Manufacturing PMI for January rose from 51.7 to 51.9 points with a constant forecast. ISM Manufacturing PMI for January rose from 47.8 to 50.9 points, breaking the level of 50.

                                GBP/USD

                                Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is growing slightly, trying to recover from a sharp decline the day before. Now, the instrument has added 0.12% and is trying to consolidate above the psychological level of 1.3000. The pound fell sharply amid growing concerns about the upcoming EU-UK trade deal. Brexit has only ended, and Boris Johnson had already threatened to abandon any EU conditions and evade trade negotiations, which should determine the UK access parameters to the European market. The market did not react to macroeconomic statistics published on Monday. Manufacturing PMI for January rose from 49.8 to 50.0 points with a constant forecast.

                                AUD/USD

                                Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is growing steadily, retreating from the lows since October 2019. Now, the instrument has added about 0.5%, testing the level of 0.6725 for a breakout. The growth of the instrument is facilitated by the results of the RBA meeting, where, as expected, the rate was left at 0.75%. In addition, the price is supported by technical factors and a sharp collapse in the Chinese stock market, which is prone to panic amid the spread of coronavirus. Yesterday’s macroeconomic statistics from Australia were ambiguous. ANZ Job Advertisements for January increased by 3.8% after a decrease of 5.7% last month. At the same time, Building Approvals for December fell by 0.2% MoM after an increase of 10.9% MoM last month. Analysts had expected a decrease of 3% MoM.

                                USD/JPY

                                Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is growing moderately, continuing to develop the “bullish” momentum formed yesterday. A severe collapse in Chinese stock markets is supporting the dollar, while further instrument growth is limited by rising tensions over the spread of coronavirus. The position of the American currency was also supported by strong US macroeconomic statistics on business activity. So, ISM Manufacturing PMI for January rose from 47.8 to 50.9 points against the forecast of 48.5 points. The Japanese Manufacturing PMI from Jibun Bank for January fell from 49.3 to 48.8 points with a neutral forecast.

                                XAU/USD

                                Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are falling slightly, continuing to develop a “bearish” trend formed yesterday. At the beginning of the week, the weakening of the instrument was due to the steady strengthening of the American currency against the background of a sharp collapse of Chinese stock markets. In addition, the market is showing an increase in demand for risky assets due to the support measures provided by the Central Bank of China to its economy. The regulator lowered interest rates and filled the markets with additional liquidity, trying to minimize the damage from trade restrictions and partially closed state borders.

                                Comment

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