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  • Morning Market Review
    2019-07-01 08:25 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    The euro showed ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar on June 28. Investors didn't want to open new positions at the end of the week amid the passing G20 summit, at which, in particular, a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping was awaited. The negotiations ended quite positively. Trump noted that they were "better than expected" and encouraged the markets with optimistic forecasts for the final deal between the countries. In the meantime, the United States decided not to introduce new import duties and allowed American companies to deal with Huawei if this does not pose a threat to the security of the USA. Moderate support for the euro on Friday was provided by preliminary data on consumer inflation. In June, the core consumer price index accelerated from 0.8% to 1.1% YoY, with a forecast of growth to 1.0% YoY. At the start of the week, European statistics on consumer lending and unemployment for May is expected.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound rose significantly against the US dollar on Friday, offsetting a moderate decline in the instrument the day before. Investors were focused on statistics on the dynamics of the UK GDP for Q1. As expected, the indicator showed an increase of 0.5% QoQ and 1.8% YoY. At the same time, the volume of commercial investments in the economy continued to decline. QoQ, the indicator rose by 0.4% after rising by 0.5%. YoY, it decreased by 1.5% after a drop of 1.4% earlier. The UK current account deficit in Q1 reached 30.045 billion pounds, which, however, was better than the forecast of 32.00 billion pounds. Investors today are focused on a block of statistics from the UK on business activity in the manufacturing sector and the dynamics of consumer lending in May.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar ended the week with steady growth against the US currency, noting new local highs since May 8. The reason for the growth of the instrument on Friday was the positive expectations of a successful outcome of the US-China negotiations at the G20 summit sites, which were partially justified. The parties agreed to continue trade negotiations, but for now, the USA decided not to introduce new import duties and lifted some restrictions for cooperation with the Chinese company Huawei. Published Chinese statistics once again reminded investors of the existing problems. The NBS data on the manufacturing sector in June did not show the expected growth from the level of 49.4 points. In the service sector, the indicator dropped from 54.3 to 54.2 points, while the forecast was 54.5 points. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI declined from 50.2 to 49.4 points, breaking down the level separating growth from stagnation.

    USD/JPY

    On July 1, the US dollar opened with a positive gap against the Japanese yen. The US currency is supported by the results of the negotiations between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, who managed to prevent a further escalation of the trade conflict. However, analysts believe that the growth of the US currency will be only short-lived since the final agreement is still far enough from signing. In addition, now the attention of investors will switch to a possible reduction in the interest rate by the Fed during the July meeting. Statistics from Japan released today was ambiguous. The Tankan Services index for Q2 showed a moderate increase from 21 to 23 points with a forecast of a decline to 20 points. At the same time, the Nikkei Manufacturing PMI dropped from 49.5 to 49.3 points.

    Oil

    Oil prices are rising moderately today, recovering from a noticeable correction at the end of last week. Quotes are supported by the OPEC+ meeting, which will start on Monday. Following the meeting, the cartel is expected to decide to extend the existing agreement on the limitation of supplies. Moreover, the agreement can be expanded and supplemented with new mechanisms for regulating supply on the market. At the G20 summit, which took place last weekend in Osaka, Russia managed to negotiate with Saudi Arabia to extend the deal for 6-9 months. The Russian Minister of Energy, Alexander Novak, commenting on this decision, also noted that Russia in June reduced oil production slightly more than it was required by the OPEC+ deal.

    Comment


    • Morning Market Review
      2019-07-02 08:37 (GMT+2)
      EUR/USD

      The euro showed a steady decline against the US dollar on Monday, retreating to June 20 levels. EUR was pressured by ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Europe and China, as well as the general correctional sentiment in favor of the dollar, which remained pressured all last week in view of the start of the G20 summit. The summit ended optimistically. Investors enthusiastically greeted the results of the meeting of Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, who managed to prevent another increase in import duties. In addition, the parties agreed to continue full-format trade negotiations, therefore, there's still a possibility of a final trade deal. Today, the pair is trading in a flat. Investors are focused on the statistics on retail sales in Germany in May and the European producer price indices.

      GBP/USD

      At the beginning of the week, the British pound fell against the US dollar updating local lows of June 20. Traders returned to active sales of the pound amid the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from the UK. In addition, as the trade conflict between the USA and China gradually fades, more and more investors are following the uncertain prospects for Brexit. The Markit Manufacturing PMI in June fell from 49.4 to 48.0 points, with a forecast of a decline to 49.2 points. Consumer lending in May slowed from 0.968 billion to 0.822 billion pounds, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of 0.967 billion. The number of approved mortgage applications in May also showed a decline from 66.045 to 65.409 thousand (forecast 65.600K). On Tuesday, investors expect the publication of the Construction PMI, as well as speech by the Bank of England head Mark Carney.

      AUD/USD

      The Australian dollar fell significantly against the US one on Monday, departing from local highs of May 7. The decline in the instrument was largely technical in nature since it was preceded by a 9-day "bullish" rally of AUD. The instrument was additionally pressured by published macroeconomic statistics from Australia and China. The Australian AiG Manufacturing PMI in June fell from 52.7 to 49.4 points. The Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI in June fell from 50.2 to 49.4 points, with a forecast of 50.0 points. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. Investors are focused on the RBA interest rate decision. As expected, the regulator reduced the rate from 1.25% to 1.00%, explaining that by the need to support inflation and the level of employment.

      USD/JPY

      The US dollar rose against the Japanese yen on Monday, updating local highs of June 19. The instrument was supported by positive results of the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, who managed to achieve a temporary truce in a trade conflict. The yen was pressured by published macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Nikkei Manufacturing PMI in June fell from 49.8 to 49.3 points, which turned out to be worse than the expectations of 49.5 points. The consumer confidence index for the same period fell from 39.4 to 38.7 points, against the forecast of growth to 40.4 points.

      Oil

      Oil prices showed a decline on July 1, although multidirectional dynamics was observed during the day. The quotes are strongly supported by the OPEC decision to extend the existing agreement on limiting oil supplies until March 2020. Thus, Saudi Arabia to some extent ignored the demands of Donald Trump to increase the volume of supplies in order to further reduce prices. On July 2, OPEC will hold talks with non-members that have previously joined the agreement. For example, Russia is also expected to support the cartel, which will provide additional support to quotes. Oon Tuesday, investors are also focused on the publication of the API report on oil reserves. Last week, the report showed a sharp decline in stocks of 7.55 million barrels.

      Comment



      • Morning Market Review
        2019-07-11 08:36 (GMT+2)
        EUR/USD

        The euro showed strong growth against the US dollar on July 10, recovering the losses of the last three trading sessions. The reason for the emergence of a strong "bullish" dynamics was the correction of the dollar in response to the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell pointed to the growing uncertainty in the prospects for the American economy, which is deteriorating under the influence of internal and external factors. Investment in the business, according to Powell, continues to decline, which poses a threat of a further slowdown in economic growth. The regulator's head did not name any exact dates for further stimulation, but the market believed in a rate cut of 25 basis points during the meeting on July 30-31. Moreover, a number of analysts believe that the Fed may decide on a stronger reduction in the rate, by 50 basis points at once. Today, the pair is also trading in an uptrend. Investors are focused on statistics on consumer inflation in Germany and France, as well as the publication of information about the latest ECB meeting on monetary policy.

        GBP/USD

        The pound showed the development of correctional dynamics against the US dollar on July 10. The growth of the instrument was facilitated by a decline in the dollar after the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who focused on the negative aspects in the American economy, which prompted investors to return to the idea of the Fed lowering the interest rate during the July meeting. Published macroeconomic statistics from the UK was moderately optimistic. Industrial output in May showed an increase of 1.4% MoM after a decline of 2.9% MoM, which was slightly worse than forecasts of 1.5% MoM. YoY, production grew by 0.9% after declining by 1.1% in April. The experts were expecting 1.1% YoY. GDP in May rose by 0.3% MoM after a decrease of 0.4% MoM a month earlier. But the NIESR assessment of GDP in June was negative: −0.1% against 0.3%.

        AUD/USD

        The Australian dollar returned to a positive trend against the US one, having received support after the speech of Fed Chairman, which increased the risks of a rate cut during the meeting on July 30-31. AUD also ignored weak macroeconomic publications from Australia. Westpac consumer confidence index in July showed a decline of 4.1% MoM after declining by 0.6% MoM last month. Today, the instrument maintains upward dynamics. Moderate support for the "Australian" provides data on the dynamics of mortgage loans. In May, the indicator reached the zero level after a decline of 0.9% MoM in April. Analysts were expecting a decline of 0.6% MoM. Investment loans for the construction of new homes in May declined by 1.7% MoM after declining by 2.2% MoM last month.

        USD/JPY

        The US dollar fell markedly against the Japanese yen on Wednesday. The reason for the emergence of negative dynamics was a sharp increase in the likelihood of a reduction in the Fed's interest rate during the meeting of July 30-31 amid the "dovish" rhetoric of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. More active growth of the instrument was hampered by the aggravation of the trade conflict between Japan and South Korea. Today, there is also a negative trend, despite the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Services PMI in Japan fell by 0.2% MoM in June after rising by 0.8% MoM last month. Analysts were expecting a decline of only 0.1% MoM. In turn, the rate of foreign investment in Japanese bonds supported the yen. For the week of July 5, the volume of investment rose from 58.5 to 192.2 billion JPY.

        Oil

        Oil prices rose sharply on July 10, updating local highs since the beginning of June. The growth of the instrument was facilitated by the large-scale weakening of the dollar after the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. In addition, the quotes were strongly supported by a published EIA report. For the week of July 5, the oil stocks decreased by 9.5 million barrels, which turned out to be significantly more than the expected reduction of 3.567 million. Meanwhile, oil production in the USA increased again from 12.200 to 12.300 million barrels per day.

        Comment


        • Morning Market Review
          2019-07-31 08:39 (GMT+2)
          EUR/USD

          The European currency showed ambiguous trading against the US dollar on Tuesday. The controversial macroeconomic releases from Europe contributed to the decline of EUR, while further growth of USD was hampered by the expectation of lowering the interest rate by the Fed at its meeting on Wednesday, July 31. Industrial Sentiment in the euro area in July showed a decrease to –7.4 points from –5.6 points last month. Analysts expected a decrease to –7.0 points. Business Climate in the euro area in July fell from 0.17 to –0.12 points, which also turned out to be worse than market forecasts of 0.08 points. The data from France were also disappointing. According to preliminary estimates, French GDP in Q2 2019 slowed down from +0.3% QoQ to +0.2% QoQ. French Consumer Spending in June showed a decline of 0.1% MoM after rising by 0.3% MoM last month. On Wednesday, in addition to the minutes of the Fed meeting, the data on euro area's GDP for Q2 2019 and Consumer Price Index for July are expected.

          GBP/USD

          GBP showed a decrease against USD on Tuesday, having updated the record lows of March 14, 2017. Closer to the end of the afternoon session, the instrument was still able to slightly correct, which was caused by the profit taking before the Fed meeting, at which the interest rate can be reduced by 0.25 or 0.50 points. Minor support for the pound on Wednesday is provided by data on Consumer Confidence in the UK. In July, according to the data from Gfk, the index rose from –13 to –11 points, while the forecast did not suggest changes in the indicator. During the day, investors expect the release of Nationwide Housing Price Index for July.

          AUD/USD

          AUD showed a moderate decline against USD on Tuesday, having updated local lows of June 19. During today's Asian session, the pair shows active growth, caused by the expectation of lowering the interest rate by the Fed and the publication of a number of good macroeconomic data from Australia. Australia's Consumer Price Index in Q2 2019 showed an increase of 0.6% QoQ and 1.6% YoY, which was slightly better than market expectations (+0.5% QoQ and +1.5% YoY). In the past quarter the index showed an even more modest growth of +0.0% QoQ and +1.3% YoY.

          USD/JPY

          USD ended the session on Tuesday with a moderate decline against JPY, departing from its local highs of July 10. The correction of the instrument proceeded against the background of disappointing macroeconomic data from Japan on industrial production and the release of the minutes of the Bank of Japan meeting on the interest rate. As expected, the regulator did not change interest rates, confirming its previous intentions. The Bank of Japan has not announced any new stimulation measures for the national economy. During the Asian session on July 31, the pair is trading in both directions. Minor support to the yen is provided by the Housing Starts indicator in Japan. In June, it showed an increase of 0.3% YoY after a decline of 8.7% YoY last month. Analysts expected a decline of –3.4% YoY.

          Oil

          Oil prices showed a moderate increase on Tuesday, supported by the expectation of lowering the interest rate by the Fed for the first time in 10 years. Moreover, some experts believe that the Fed may decide to cut the rate by 0.50 points, since the economic situation is noticeably worsening, and earlier Donald Trump stated that “a small reduction in the rate will not be enough”. Additional support to prices on Tuesday was provided by the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report. For the week as of July 26, the report reflected a decrease in stocks by 6.024 million barrels after a record decline of 10.961 million barrels for the previous period. On Wednesday, investors are awaiting the publication of an official report on oil reserves from the US Department of Energy.

          Comment


          • Morning Market Review
            2019-09-02 08:40 (GMT+2)
            EUR/USD

            The European currency fell significantly against the US dollar on Friday, updating record lows of mid-May 2017. The pressure on the instrument intensified at the end of last week amid the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics from Europe. Retail sales in Germany showed a decrease of 2.1% MoM in July after rising by 3.0% MoM last month. Analysts expected a decline of –1.3% MoM. The EU Core Consumer Price index in August remained at the previous level of +0.9% YoY, while investors expected it to accelerate to +1.0% YoY. Thus, inflation in Europe continues to remain significantly below the ECB target levels, forcing the latter to act more aggressively. A number of analysts believe that the European regulator may resort to new stimulation measures already at the September meeting. In particular, the market does not exclude the possibility of resuming the quantitative easing program.

            GBP/USD

            The British pound showed a moderate decline against the US dollar at the end of last week, continuing the development of the "bearish" impulse formed on August 28. The pound is still under pressure due to the aggravation of the domestic political situation in the UK amid the approach of the Brexit deadline. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson asked the Queen for permission to extend the Parliament summer recess until mid-October, so that they would not be able to pass a bill prohibiting the country from leaving the EU without a valid agreement. Members of the opposition parties said they would try to meet the deadlines. However, official statements often contain calls to declare a vote of no confidence in the government. At the end of last week, moderate support to the pound was provided by data on consumer lending. Net Lending to Individuals in July increased from 4.8 to 5.5 billion pounds. Mortgage Approvals in July rose from 66.51K to 66.26K, which also exceeded the market expectations of 66.17K.

            AUD/USD

            The Australian dollar maintains a moderate downtrend against the US currency, again approaching local lows of August 26. Pressure on the instrument is exerted by the uncertain situation surrounding the US-Chinese trade negotiations, which may resume in September, but, according to many analysts, are unlikely to lead to a noticeable improvement in the situation. Meanwhile, the parties introduced mutual import duties on September 1, which may already negatively affect the growth rate of the global economy. During today's Asian session, the instrument is trading in both directions. US markets are closed due to Labor Day, so the Australian dollar has a chance of correction. Moderate support for the instrument is provided by macroeconomic statistics from Australia and China. AiG Manufacturing index went up from 51.3 to 53.1 points in August. Terms of Trade index in Q2 2019 rose from 1.0% to 1.6%. Caixin Manufacturing PMI in August rose from 49.9 to 50.4 points, exceeding the forecast of 49.8 points.

            USD/JPY

            The US dollar showed a moderate decline against the Japanese yen last Friday, interrupting the development of a "bullish" impulse formed in the middle of the week. The yen was supported by macroeconomic data from Japan published on August 30. The unemployment rate in July fell from 2.3% to 2.2%, while the market expected its growth to 2.4%. Industrial production in July grew by 1.3% MoM and 0.7% YoY, which was significantly better than market expectations. During today's Asian session, the dollar is trading with an increase. The yen is under pressure from Nikkei Manufacturing PMI, which reflected a further decline in business sentiment. In August, the index fell from 49.5 to 49.3 points.

            Oil

            Oil prices showed a negative trend on Friday after moderate growth throughout the past trading week. The quotes decreased against the background of the corrective growth of the American currency, as well as due to published data from Reuters, which indicated an increase in oil production by OPEC. In August, production increased by 80K barrels, showing growth for the first time in 2019. A more confident negative dynamics in the instrument at the end of the last trading week was hindered by the published Baker Hughes report, which reflected a decrease in the number of active drilling rigs over the week as of August 30 from 754 to 742 units. Additional support for quotes is provided by Hurricane Dorian, which last weekend intensified to the highest category and reached the Bahamas, and this night can reach the coast of Florida.

            Comment


            • USD/CHF: the dollar is strengthening
              2019-09-09 08:53 (GMT+2) USD/CHF
              Current trend

              The USD/CHF pair continues to grow moderately, recovering to local highs of September 3. However, a report on the US labor market published last Friday turned out to be ambiguous, which caused a short-term correction of the US currency. Nonfarm Payrolls for August rose by 130K, which turned out to be noticeably worse than forecasts of 157K. Wages also slowed from +3.3% YoY to +3.2% YoY with a forecast of +3.1% YoY.

              Today, during the Asian session, the instrument is trading with a fairly confident increase. On Monday, there is a lack of key US statistics to be published, so European data will be in the spotlight. In Switzerland, a report on the unemployment rate for August will be released. Analysts expect the indicator to remain around 2.3%.

              Support and resistance

              On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are actively growing. The price range is slightly expanding from above, letting the “bulls” renew local highs. MACD indicator restores the upward trend, forming a new buy signal (the histogram consolidates above the signal line). The dynamics of Stochastic is similar, it reversed upwards.

              Current indicators do not contradict the further development of the uptrend in the short and/or ultra-short term. It is better to keep the current long positions in the nearest time intervals.

              Resistance levels: 0.9905, 0.9927, 0.9945.

              Support levels: 0.9876, 0.9858, 0.9835, 0.9797.

              Comment


              • Morning Market Review
                2019-10-17 08:52 (GMT+2)
                EUR/USD

                The European currency rose significantly against the US dollar on Wednesday, updating local highs of September 16. EUR was supported by the macroeconomic statistics from the euro area. Core Consumer Price Index in September rose by 0.4% MoM and 1.0% YoY, which was slightly better than in the previous month (+0.4% MoM and +0.9% YoY). The euro area Trade Balance surplus in August rose from EUR 17.5 to 20.3 billion, exceeding forecasts of EUR 18.9 billion. Additional support for the instrument was provided by the newly improved prospects for a deal between the EU and the UK at today's summit. The EU representatives noted that all the differences were overcome and, theoretically, nothing prevents to conclude a deal before the end of this week. This Saturday, a vote on the final version of the deal is planned in the parliament.

                GBP/USD

                The British pound showed growth against the US dollar on Wednesday, updating local highs of May 15. The pound is supported by good prospects for a deal between the EU and the UK at today’s summit. The summit Chairman Donald Tusk noted that the agreement is ready and it is likely to be signed by all 27 participating countries. Optimistic news also came from the UK, where DUP leaders said they agreed with the Brexit proposals and were ready to support them on Saturday’s vote. Meanwhile, the UK macroeconomic statistics put pressure on the pound. Retail Price Index fell by 0.2% MoM in September after rising by 0.8% MoM a month earlier. Analysts had expected decline by 0.1% MoM. Consumer Price Index in September showed an increase of 0.1% MoM and 1.7% YoY, which turned out to be worse than forecasts of +0.2% MoM and +1.8% YoY.

                AUD/USD

                The Australian dollar showed ambiguous dynamics against the US currency on Wednesday, but is again growing rapidly during today’s Asian session. Some support for the instrument was provided by improved prospects for concluding an agreement between the EU and the UK. In turn, an attempt by US lawmakers to review Hong Kong’s special trade status threatens with new problems in relations with China and a breakdown in the results of trade negotiations. Today, investors are focused on the September statistics on the Australian labor market. Employment Change in September grew by 14.7K against 37.9K a month earlier. Analysts had expected an increase of 15K. At the same time, Full Time Employment increased by 26.2K after a decrease of 13.2K last month, and Part Time Employment decreased by 11.4K after an increase of 51.1K in August. Unemployment Rate in September decreased unexpectedly from 5.3% to 5.2%.

                USD/JPY

                The US dollar fell slightly against the Japanese yen on Wednesday, reversing near its local highs of August 1. The pressure on the US currency, in addition to a number of technical factors, was exerted by weak statistics on the dynamics of US retail sales. Retail Sales in September showed a decrease of 0.3% MoM after an increase of 0.6% MoM a month earlier. Analysts had expected positive dynamics to remain at +0.3% MoM. Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM also declined in September by 0.1% MoM after growth by 0.2% MoM and with the forecast of +0.2%.

                Oil

                Oil prices showed a slight increase on Wednesday, responding to corrective sentiment in the US currency and optimistic signals from OPEC that the agreement on limiting oil supplies could be extended in December. The next meeting of the cartel is scheduled for December 5-6 and should be held in Vienna. Pressure on quotes was exerted by API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Report. For the week as of October 11, the indicator increased sharply by 10.50 million barrels after an increase of 4.13 million barrels over the past period. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of the EIA Crude Oil Inventories.

                Comment


                • Morning Market Review
                  2019-11-12 08:46 (GMT+2)
                  EUR/USD

                  EUR showed correctional growth on Monday, recovering slightly after a steady decline of last week. The uptrend appeared due to technical factors, since no interesting macroeconomic statistics from the US or Europe were released yesterday. American markets were also closed due to Veterans Day. One way or another, investors are still focusing on trade negotiations between the United States and China. Optimism regarding the early conclusion of a preliminary agreement gave way to doubts after Donald Trump announced that he was not going to revise the current policy on increased import duties. Today, the instrument is relatively stable, expecting new drivers to appear on the market. Investors expect the publication of November statistics on ZEW Economic Sentiment, as well as statements by ECB representatives, Coeure and Mersch.

                  GBP/USD

                  GBP rose significantly against USD yesterday, rising to the local highs of November 5. The pound managed to show growth on Monday, despite the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Industrial Production in September fell by 0.3% MoM after a decline of 0.7% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected decline of 0.2% MoM. In annual terms, production decreased by 1.4% YoY, slightly improving dynamics from the previous month at –1.8% YoY. UK GDP in Q3 2019 showed an increase of 0.3% QoQ after a decrease of 0.2% QoQ in Q2 2019. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.4% QoQ. In annual terms, the British economy slowed down from +1.3% YoY to +1% YoY, which also turned out to be slightly worse than forecasts of +1.1% YoY. Today, the pound remains prone to further growth. Traders are awaiting the publication of UK labor market data for September/October.

                  AUD/USD

                  AUD fell against USD on Monday, continuing to develop a "bearish" momentum, which has been preserved since the end of last week. Pressure on the instrument is exerted by noticeably worsened prospects for concluding a trade deal between the USA and China. At the end of last week, Donald Trump said that he was not currently considering the possibility of canceling part of the previously imposed import duties, which Beijing insists on. In addition, the parties still did not agree on the time and place of the possible signing of the agreement, which reduces the likelihood that the deal may be concluded in November. Today, the Australian dollar, which opened with the usual decline, is recovering some of the lost ground. The instrument is supported by fairly positive macroeconomic statistics from Australia. NAB Business Confidence rose from 0 to 2 points in October with the neutral forecast. NAB Business Survey rose from 2 to 3 points in October, which exceeded the expectations as well.

                  USD/JPY

                  USD fell against JPY on Monday, as the negative sentiment regarding the prospects for a trade agreement between the US and China outweighed the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Core Machinery Orders in Japan in September decreased by 2.9% MoM after a decrease of 2.4% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.9% MoM. In annual terms, the indicator increased by 5.1% YoY after the decrease by 14.5% YoY in the previous month. Forecasts suggested an increase of 7.9% YoY. Economy Watchers Current Index in October fell sharply from 46.7 to 36.7 points, while analysts had expected growth to 47.1 points.

                  Oil

                  Oil prices showed ambiguous trading dynamics on Monday, interrupting the development of weak correctional dynamics. Pressure on quotes is still provided by the uncertain prospect of a trade agreement between the United States and China. Last Saturday, Donald Trump once again emphasized that the deal would be concluded only if it is "useful" for the United States. As for the possible cancellation of some of the introduced import duties, Trump has not yet considered this possibility, which may become another stumbling block for the current negotiations.

                  Comment


                  • Morning Market Review
                    2019-11-15 08:51 (GMT+2)
                    EUR/USD

                    EUR showed moderate growth against USD on Thursday, interrupting the development of a downward rally since November 4. The appearance of correctional dynamics was facilitated by moderately optimistic macroeconomic statistics from the euro area. German GDP in Q3 2019 increased by 0.1% QoQ, accelerating from the previous value of –0.2% QoQ. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.1% QoQ. In annual terms, GDP increased by 1.0% YoY after falling by 0.1% YoY in Q2 2019. Forecasts suggested an increase of 0.9% YoY. In the euro area, economic growth was less noticeable. In quarterly terms, the EU GDP added the previous 0.2% QoQ, and in annual terms it accelerated from +1.1% YoY to +1.2% YoY.

                    GBP/USD

                    GBP rose against USD on Thursday, rising to local highs, updated earlier this week. The growth of the instrument was largely determined by technical factors, while the macroeconomic background from the UK remained negative. UK Retail Sales in October showed a decrease of 0.1% MoM, despite an expected increase of 0.2% MoM. In annual terms, the indicator strengthened by 3.1% YoY, which coincided with the data for the previous month. Analysts expected an increase of 3.7% YoY. Core Retail Sales for the same period decreased by 0.3% MoM after rising 0.2% MoM in September. In annual terms, the index slowed down from 2.9% YoY to 2.7% YoY against a forecast of 3.4% YoY.

                    AUD/USD

                    AUD closed Thursday trading with a steady decline against USD, updating local lows of October 17. Pressure on the instrument was exerted by disappointing macroeconomic statistics on employment from Australia. October Employment Rate fell by 19.0K after rising by 14.7K in the previous month. Analysts had expected positive dynamics to remain at 15.0K. Australia's Unemployment Rate, as expected, rose from 5.2% to 5.3%. Additional negative impact on the instrument had Chinese data. In October, China's Industrial Production slowed down from 5.8% YoY to 4.7% YoY, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of 5.4% YoY. Retail Sales in China over the same period decreased from 7.8% YoY to 7.2% YoY, which also turned out to be weaker than market forecasts of 7.9% YoY.

                    USD/JPY

                    USD showed a decline against JPY on Thursday, updating local lows of November 4. The growth of the Japanese currency proceeded against the background of the publication of extremely weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Japanese GDP in Q3 2019 increased by 0.1% QoQ after growing by 0.4% QoQ in the previous period. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.2% QoQ. In annual terms, GDP has slowed from 1.8% YoY to 0.2% YoY, with the forecast of 0.8% YoY. Given such weak data, investors fear that the Bank of Japan will take new measures to stimulate the economy, which will put additional pressure on the yen. Anyway, as long as the market remains at a high degree of uncertainty caused by the lack of progress in trade negotiations between the United States and China, the Japanese currency will be in demand.

                    Oil

                    Oil prices showed moderate growth on Thursday, but could not stay at new levels and returned to the red zone closer to the end of the afternoon session. Pressure on quotes was exerted by the report from the US Department of Energy. According to the data, the volume of crude oil in the United States for the week ending November 8 rose by 2.219M barrels after rising by 7.929M barrels for the previous period. Analysts had expected an increase in stocks of 1.649M barrels. The report also indicated a further increase in US oil production from 12.600M barrels to 12.800M barrels.

                    Comment


                    • Morning Market Review
                      2019-11-19 08:34 (GMT+2)
                      EUR/USD

                      EUR showed strong growth against USD on Monday, updating local highs of November 7. The euro was supported by optimistic statements by American officials who again spoke out for the early conclusion of a trade agreement between the United States and China. However, disagreements between the parties remain. The main requirement of Beijing, the cancellation of previously introduced tariffs, remains unfulfilled, and it is unlikely that Donald Trump will decide to change his position on this issue. In turn, China is in no hurry to include the exact volumes of US agricultural imports into the agreement. Today, the euro is trading in both directions, waiting for the appearance of new drivers at the market. Investors are focused on statistics on Construction Output in the euro area. With the opening of the American session, the focus will shift to data on US Housing Starts in October.

                      GBP/USD

                      GBP rose against USD on Monday, noting new local highs since October 22. The growth of the British currency, in addition to the technical factors of the dollar correction, was facilitated by optimistic news after opinion polls, which strengthened the belief in the victory of the Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative party in the upcoming parliamentary elections. In addition, some of the seats in parliament may go to candidates from the Brexit party, led by Nigel Farage. Of course, when voting for a deal in parliament, Farage will support Johnson, which significantly increases the chances of a favorable outcome with the situation with Brexit in December-January.

                      AUD/USD

                      AUD showed flat dynamics against USD on Monday, reacting to the weak macroeconomic background of the beginning of the week. The instrument was slightly supported by data on Foreign Direct Investment in the Chinese economy. In October, investment volumes grew by 6.6% YoY after an increase of 6.5% YoY in the previous month. Today, the pair is falling again, smoothly returning to the local lows updated last week. The instrument is under pressure from the RBA meeting minutes from November 5. Despite the fact that the RBA kept the interest rate unchanged last time, investors fear that the difficult economic situation will force the regulator to take new stimulation measures. The published protocols do not talk about this directly, but they signal a persistent low inflation rate.

                      USD/JPY

                      USD showed growth against JPY on Monday, but could not stay at the occupied highs and returned to the red zone closer to the end of the afternoon session. The growth of the instrument is facilitated by the appearance of a number of optimistic signals regarding trade negotiations between the US and China; however, the parties still did not agree on the time and place of a possible signing of the agreement. Today, the instrument is declining again, and investors expect new drivers to appear on the market. The market is focused on the publication of US statistics on Housing Starts in the United States, as well as a new round of negotiations between Japan and South Korea in the WTO.

                      Oil

                      Oil prices showed a decline on Monday, responding to the emergence of contradictory signals regarding the prospects of signing a trade agreement between the United States and China. In addition, the OPEC+ meeting in early December remains in the spotlight of investors. It is expected that the cartel will decide to extend the current deal to reduce oil production amid continued low demand for oil products. Last week, OPEC announced that it expects a decline in oil demand in 2020 due to ongoing trade wars and a slowdown in the global economy. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report for the week ending November 15.

                      Comment


                      • Morning Market Review
                        2019-11-20 08:54 (GMT+2)
                        EUR/USD

                        EUR showed ambiguous dynamics of trading on Tuesday, halting the development of an active "bullish" impulse, which remained since last Thursday. The development of flat dynamics was facilitated by weak macroeconomic statistics from Europe. Construction Output in September decreased by 0.7% YoY after an increase of 0.8% YoY in the previous month. Experts expected the index to accelerate to 2.7% YoY. In monthly terms, the indicator grew by 0.74% MoM after a decline of 0.82% MoM in August. The indicator was stronger than the forecast of +0.7% MoM. Investors are also focused on an uncertain situation around the US-Chinese trade negotiations. Despite the continued optimistic sentiment of some politicians, the situation seems to have come to a standstill, and so far it seems that Donald Trump will introduce new import duties on Chinese goods on December 15.

                        GBP/USD

                        GBP showed a correctional decline on Tuesday, retreating from the local highs of October 22, updated the day before. Pressure on the instrument was exerted by moderately optimistic macroeconomic indicators from the US. At the same time, GBP was supported by hopes for a positive outcome for the Brexit deal in the upcoming British parliamentary elections in December. According to recent opinion polls, the Conservative party has good chances of winning, which theoretically allows it to get the majority of seats in Parliament and ratify the current version of the agreement with the EU. American statistics indicated a moderate growth in the construction market. Building Permits increased from 1.391M to 1.461M in October with a forecast of 1.385M. Housing Starts in October rose from 1.266M to 1.314M, which only slightly fell short of forecasts of 1.320M.

                        AUD/USD

                        AUD showed moderate growth against USD on Tuesday, updating local highs of November 14. During the day, the instrument mainly declined, remaining under pressure after the publication of controversial minutes of the RBA meeting. In addition, the uncertain situation around the trade negotiations between the US and China, which has been noticeably complicated lately, is also putting pressure on AUD. Today, the instrument has returned to decline. Investors are focusing on publications from Australia, as well as the decision of the People's Bank of China on the interest rate. Westpac Leading Index fell by 0.07% in October, after falling by 0.12% last month. The Chinese regulator, in turn, unexpectedly lowered its interest rate from 4.2% to 4.15%, apparently trying to support an economy that is showing a slowing trend.

                        USD/JPY

                        USD maintains a moderate downward trend, paired with JPY, updating local lows of November 14. Demand for a "safe" yen is growing again as the next local crisis develops in US-China trade negotiations. Donald Trump is still not going to abolish previously imposed import duties, and China is in no hurry to clarify the exact volume of imports of American agricultural products in the agreement. Today, the instrument continues to develop a "bearish" trend, ignoring uncertain macroeconomic publications from Japan. Japanese exports went down by 9.2% YoY in October after the decline by 5.2% YoY in the previous month. Analysts had expected decline of 7.6% YoY. Imports for the same period decreased by 14.8% YoY after a decrease of 1.5% YoY in September. The indicator turned out better than its forecasts of –16% YoY. As a result, the overall Trade Balance in October turned out to be surplus at 17.3B Japanese yen. In the previous month, the trade balance showed a deficit of 124.8B Japanese yen.

                        Oil

                        Oil prices showed a noticeable decline on Tuesday, responding to negative forecasts by analysts regarding the prospects for a trade agreement between the United States and China. Additional pressure on the quotes was exerted by news about an increase in oil production in Norway, as the country managed to start developing the Johan Sverdrup field ahead of schedule. Finally, the American Petroleum Institute report, published on Tuesday, turned out to be a negative factor, showing that in the week ending November 15, US oil reserves rose sharply by 5.954M barrels after a decrease of 0.5M barrels over the past period. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of an official report from the US Department of Energy.

                        Comment


                        • Morning Market Review
                          2019-12-06 08:46 (GMT+2)
                          EUR/USD

                          EUR shows ambiguous trading against USD during today's Asian session, consolidating after strong growth, which, however, failed to lead to the renewal of previous local highs at 1.1115. The European statistics published on Thursday, which turned out to be not the most successful, remain in the spotlight of investors. The EU GDP in Q3 2019 increased by 0.2% QoQ and 1.2% YoY, which coincided with the data of the previous period and the forecasts. At the same time, Retail Sales in October fell by 0.6% MoM after a decline of 0.2% MoM in September. Investors expected a reduction of 0.3% MoM. In annual terms, sales slowed down from 2.7% YoY to 1.4% YoY, which also turned out to be noticeably worse than market expectations of 2.2% YoY. Employment Change in Q3 2019 increased by 0.1% QoQ and 0.9% YoY, which coincided with the dynamics in the previous quarter.

                          GBP/USD

                          GBP is stable against USD during today's Asian session, trading near local highs of May 6. The pound confidently strengthened during the last three trading sessions, which was caused by not the strongest positions of the American currency, and also by the growth of confidence in the Conservative Party's victory in the British parliamentary elections on 12 December. This will allow the Parliament to ratify the deal with the EU and implement Brexit, meeting the new deadlines by the end of January 2020. During the day, investors expect the publication of the November report on the US labor market, which could trigger the appearance of correctional dynamics in favor of the US currency.

                          AUD/USD

                          AUD is strengthening against USD during today's Asian session, adding about 0.14%. The instrument is recovering after the decline yesterday caused by the publication of contradictory macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Australian Exports fell by 5% in October after rising 3% a month earlier. Imports for the same period showed zero dynamics after an increase of 3% in September. Such a significant decline in exports led to a decrease in the trade surplus in October from 6.85B to 4.50B Australian dollars with a forecast of 6.10B. The correctional growth of the instrument during the Asian session is not hindered by the publication of weak AiG Construction Index, which continued to decline in November and fell from 43.9 to 40 points, which turned out to be worse than the average expectations.

                          USD/JPY

                          USD is declining against JPY during the Asian session, losing about 0.07%. The yen is again in demand amid growing uncertainty around US-Chinese trade negotiations. Donald Trump’s restrained statements that “the negotiations are proceeding well” weakly support the market, which is waiting for December 15, when the US may increase import duties on Chinese goods, which can offset all the progress achieved by the parties. Published macroeconomic statistics from Japan on Friday does not support the yen. Average Cash Earnings in October increased by 0.5% YoY, coinciding with the data for the previous month. Analysts had expected a significant increase of 1.1% YoY. Household Spending in October fell sharply by 5.1% YoY after growth by 9.5% YoY in the previous month. Experts expected a decrease of 3% YoY.

                          XAU/USD

                          Gold prices are stable during today's Asian session, trading near 1475.00. Gold quotes have changed little recently since investors expect the situation to develop in a trade conflict between the United States and China. Earlier this week, information appeared that the conclusion of the agreement may have to be postponed to November 2020, when the next presidential election will be held in the United States. Trump later reiterated that “negotiations are going well,” and moderate optimism gradually began to return to the markets. However, there is little time left until December 15, and new import duties, if they are introduced by the USA, will almost certainly put an end to the current progress in the negotiations and everything will have to be started from scratch.

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