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My 2 cents on Brexit and GBPUSD

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  • My 2 cents on Brexit and GBPUSD

    Hey fellow traders
    I want to share with you some of my observations. You've probably noticed recently that all the people around a pedaling that Brexit topic - so it simply became a plain speculation. To be perfectly honest I've already tired from all that Brexit noise (personally I think nobody will leave - because if they will then next day they can simply bring their economy to cemetery - it will be the only suitable place for it).

    Today I would like to share with you how I'm using COT report and COT Index indicator along with GBPUSD chart to prepare myself for next big moves. And what is even more interesting – to figure out what is the most probably move it could be.
    First, let’s take a look at weekly GBPUSD chart.

    As we can see GBPUSD is at the multi-year lows right now – it wasn’t this low for at least 3 years! And the value is bouncing back and forth around psychological level of 1.40000. But in general there is nothing special here, right?
    Then second – let’s now check the COT report. Wow! The picture became much more interesting. Do you see this? The red line – number of net positions held by Commercial traders is at the 3 years high. So this means that the Commercial players (the Big Dogs) have accumulated the number of contracts not seen for at least 3 years! And they are heavily net long!
    And now this is the step number three. Take a look at the COT Index built for 26-weeks period. What do we see here? The red line – Commercials again – shows 100. What does it mean? It means that they all hedged the risks and right now 100% of them are net long. So they are all buying and sitting with their positions.
    So now add all these three points together and multiply it by the level of Brexit hype: (GBPUSD Multiyear Low + COT extreme + COT Index 100%) * Brexit hype. So what we’ve got? An extremely high probability of GBPUSD moving upward and start of the long-term trend – no matter what the results of the polls will be! The big dogs will be making money on that move, the average “Joe” traders will be wiped out. So take the right side – be prepared to join the winners! We expect that in the upcoming months (and specifically after Brexit voting) the new trend will emerge and it will go north.

  • #2
    Hi DarkMindFX,

    ​Interesting view.

    ​Just one question : ​Who are the "We" people of the last sentence?