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US Election Trade Opportunity After Brexit

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  • US Election Trade Opportunity After Brexit

    Hey guys,

    I'm trading manually
    I have my own bias that might be wrong
    Just want to pen this down...

    Instead of doing something much more important, I did some calculations... How to get $10K from the election volatility.

    A million dollars? Haha, that would be later...

    So expecting something like Brexit, I calculated a range of about 1154.9 pips was given. More or less about 1200pips.

    Similar to Brexit, I'll be taking EU short when I get the chance and if everything is lined up correctly.

    To acheive $10K in a distance of 1.2K pips, my size would be about $8.40/pip... That's doable. Key in 0.84 in my MT4.

    The target is 0.98770.. Wow below parity, we'll see how things go. Take care guys.
    The forex market is already so complex, don't make it worse.

  • #2
    Why do you think it's going to move 1,200 pips? Personally I think we're looking at a couple of hundred at best, but who really knows...

    I'm interested in what you think is going to happen and how the market is going to react.



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    • #3
      Originally posted by Nick View Post
      Why do you think it's going to move 1,200 pips? Personally I think we're looking at a couple of hundred at best, but who really knows...

      I'm interested in what you think is going to happen and how the market is going to react.


      Hey Nick, you can take a look at GU chart and H4 close of the brexit event. You can safely see the direction of price (it has decided to go down). I took from that point and excluded the flash crash spike.

      This is not a 1 day trade, it might move 100 to 300 or even 500 pips in one day but i am looking for 2-3 weeks trade.

      Similar to GU, it spike to the top before deciding with a close to the down side.. So I am looking for that. Minimum H4 charts.

      What are other opinions on the election, would love to hear them.
      The forex market is already so complex, don't make it worse.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by FanFocusATgmailCOM View Post

        Hey Nick, you can take a look at GU chart and H4 close of the brexit event. You can safely see the direction of price (it has decided to go down). I took from that point and excluded the flash crash spike.

        This is not a 1 day trade, it might move 100 to 300 or even 500 pips in one day but i am looking for 2-3 weeks trade.

        Similar to GU, it spike to the top before deciding with a close to the down side.. So I am looking for that. Minimum H4 charts.

        What are other opinions on the election, would love to hear them.
        Fair enough, I guess my question centered around why you think a new president will result in a huge swing in USD strength more than anything.
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        • #5
          Originally posted by Nick View Post

          Fair enough, I guess my question centered around why you think a new president will result in a huge swing in USD strength more than anything.
          Fundamentally, there would be tonnes of reason. For most, if not all actions we do there is surely justifiable reason behind it.

          Fundamental can weigh in on all occasions. But it becomes a problem when obvious fundamental info goes against what price does. This will lead to stubborn-ly holding to trades. I would always say if the price would eventually go in your direction and is currently going against you, why can't you take the loss now and enter at this current better price?

          If you do that again and again, you will realize slowly that you are wrong. And they say, it's alright to be wrong. My bias is closely linked to the closing price. The whole candle is a fundamental playing field, price can jump, hop, sprint and fly. But at the end of the day, it has to come home to rest.

          What you see on the charts are technical. And sometimes I can see, setups for the big moves, they too might be wrong, I can be wrong and charts can be wrong. As long as I can be profitably wrong. It's all good.
          The forex market is already so complex, don't make it worse.

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          • #6
            You are forgetting that even if the results are out and you think Clinton or Trump won, they can still go to the court and ask for recounting as it happened in 2000 with Bush and Gore. Than pair will be "stuck" in range until it is clear who won, which can take a few weeks. And Trump already stated if the results will be close he will do this, because he thinks elections are rigged.

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            • #7
              There are so many unknowns, one cant rule out even the buy the rumour sell the fact effect. Given the fact that many market participants are staying rather away in this situation its quite obvious how the liquidity will look like ...

              Dont believe that either Trump or Clinton reign will do much effect on the globalized US economy at the end its all about FED and Goldmans ... So really we just gotta wait for the initial shock after the result and then stick back to our game - trend indicators, risk reward ratio etc ...

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              • #8
                Elections are all about agendas. If Clinton wins, the same agenda continues. It won't destroy the confidence in the financial system.

                If Trump wins, everything will be uncertain including the behavior towards the financial markets. You should expect irrational behavior including vast amounts of volatility.

                If you want to trade this correctly, Find a broker that you don't like, Fund with only risk capital that you can afford to lose. Expect a MarginCall or a Huge gain worth every penny.

                Don't be biased going into this event, Just wait 5 seconds after the results and follow the momentum.
                MacroManPro - SimpleTrader
                FX4BTC Website

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                • #9
                  Thanks guys for posting. Hope everyone came out profitable..

                  I came out breakeven.. I was recovering my account for more than a month.. From 1.7K back to 6K...

                  bit.ly/fan-recovery

                  Or

                  https://www.myfxbook.com/members/wat...AohnsJ6QgzbEO8
                  The forex market is already so complex, don't make it worse.

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