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  • USD/JPY: the Nikkei index breaks records, and the yen remains under pressure
    20/10/2017
    Current dynamics

    After a 6-week continuous growth, the Japanese stock index Nikkei reached several multi-year highs, bargaining at the end of today's Asian session near the mark of 21500.00. At the same time, amid the growth of the Japanese stock market, the yen remains under pressure and is down against the dollar, since early September.
    This Sunday in Japan, early elections will be held, and it is expected that the ruling coalition of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will remain in power. Abe supports soft monetary policy, which contributes to the growth of the stock market and the reduction of the yen.
    Head of the Central Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda again promised to continue the implementation of extra soft monetary policy and expressed confidence in the strength of the country's economy. In his opinion, the current policy corresponds to short-term and long-term target levels of the Bank of Japan. "The recent improvement in the situation was caused by the balanced growth of domestic and external demand, and I believe in significant economic growth stability," Kuroda said. At present, the Bank of Japan expects that inflation will reach 2% by March 2020, but this forecast can be revised at the end of October, when the next meeting of the Bank of Japan on monetary policy (October 31) will take place.
    At a meeting last month, the Bank of Japan reiterated its commitment to buy government bonds in the amount of 80 trillion yen per year. The head of the Bank of Japan at a subsequent press conference promised that "we will patiently adhere to the policy of powerful mitigation in order to achieve inflation of 2%" and "take additional mitigation measures, if necessary".
    At the same time, the dollar is growing again in the foreign exchange market. As it became known, the US Senate approved the draft budget 51 votes to 49, which is one of the conditions for unlocking the procedure that the Republicans plan to use to make changes in the taxation system with the help of the votes of only the Republican Party.
    "Adoption of the budget is critical for tax reform that will strengthen our economy after several years of stagnation under the previous administration", said Mitch McConnell, leader of the Republican majority in the Senate.
    The given news stimulated the growth of the dollar. The index of the dollar WSJ rose from the opening of today's trading day at 0.4% and reached a maximum for the month near the 87.00 mark. The yield of 10-year US government bonds rose to 2,360% from the level of 2,323%, recorded on Thursday night in New York.
    After yesterday's decline, the pair USD / JPY is rising again today. Tensions between the US and North Korea declined, and investors again returned to buying US assets.
    After the release of good economic indicators for the United States, investors say that the interest rates are now more likely to be raised again in December, and the economic growth in the US is stable, investors say in favor of raising the interest rate and receiving encouraging news from the White House.
    According to the CME Group, the probability of a rate hike in December is taken into account by investors at 93%.
    In general, the fundamental factors say (at the moment) in favor of further growth in the USD/JPY.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support and resistance levels
    In the course of today's European session, the USD/JPY is trying to develop an upward trend and is making an attempt to break through the resistance level 113.10 (the top line of the descending channels on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts, as well as the Fibonacci 50% correction to the pair growth since August last year and level 99.90).
    While USD / JPY is trading above the key support level of 111.25 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart, EMA50 on the weekly chart), its positive dynamics persists. In case of breakdown of the resistance level 113.10, the target of the growth will be level 114.40 (the upper limit of the range between the levels 108.10 and 114.40).
    The different focus of the monetary policies of the Fed and the Bank of Japan is a powerful fundamental factor in favor of further growth in the USD / JPY.
    The alternative scenario implies a return of USD / JPY to the level of 111.25 and a resumption of decline in the downlink on the weekly chart, the lower limit of which runs near the level of 106.50 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%). The nearest targets will be support levels of 111.00, 110.15 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%).
    The signal for opening short positions will be the break of the short-term support level 111.90 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
    Support levels: 112.15, 111.90, 111.25, 111.00, 110.15, 110.00, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00
    Resistance levels: 113.10, 113.50, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00

    Trading Scenarios

    Buy Stop 113.50. Stop Loss 112.90. Take-Profit 114.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00
    Sell ​​Stop 112.90. Stop Loss 113.50. Take-Profit 112.15, 111.90, 111.25, 111.00, 110.15, 110.00, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

    Comment


    • XAU/USD: gold continues to fall in price against the background of dollar strengthening
      23/10/2017
      Current dynamics

      The dollar continues to strengthen in the foreign exchange market, and gold - to decline in price amid news and talk about the appointment of President Donald Trump the new chairman of the Fed.
      Among the candidates for this post is Stanford University economist John Taylor, who is more inclined to tighten monetary policy than current chairman Janet Yellen. Yes and Janet Yellen herself can count on the extension of her powers after the end of January when 4-year term of her stay at the head of the Fed expires.
      If Trump suggests Janet Yellen to remain in office for a second term, it will also become a positive factor for the dollar, as Yellen consistently advocates a phased tightening of monetary policy.
      Many economists believe that if the new FRS chairman is appointed, monetary policy in the US will become even more rigid. According to CME Group, the probability of a rate hike in December is taken into account by investors in more than 90%.
      The index of the dollar WSJ recently added 0.22% to 87.19, while over the past week it grew by 0.77%. The ICE dollar index climbed 0.6%, to a maximum since October 6, 93.70.
      The growth of the dollar is also promoted by the draft budget approved last Friday in the US Congress. "Adoption of the budget is critical for tax reform that will strengthen our economy after several years of stagnation under the previous administration," said Mitch McConnell, leader of the Republican majority in the Senate.
      Waiting for tax cuts in the new economic policy of the administration of the US President Donald Trump contributes to the growth of the dollar and US stock indices, and, accordingly, the fall in gold prices.
      On Friday, December gold futures on COMEX closed with a decrease of 0.7%, at 1280.50 dollars per troy ounce. The prices for gold fell on the results of five of the last six weeks.
      In the future, investors will also explore new US economic data. Low inflation can change the approach of the central bank in relation to interest rates and again support the price of gold. Traders also monitor the development of geopolitical tensions, which can support gold, popular as a safe haven in periods of uncertainty. With the growth of borrowing costs, gold competes worse with more profitable assets, for example, treasury bonds, and is declining, but the demand for gold is growing with the aggravation of geopolitical tensions. Usually, against the backdrop of growing geopolitical or financial uncertainty, the price of gold, as an asset-shelter, is growing.
      *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

      Support and resistance levels
      Since the opening of today, the pair XAU / USD is declining, and at the beginning of the European session is trading near the support level of 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016).
      Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.
      The pair XAU / USD broke short-term support levels of 1290.00 (EMA200, EMA144 on the 4-hour chart), 1285.00 (EMA200, EMA144 on the 1-hour chart) and develops the descending dynamics, decreasing to the support levels of 1272.00 (EMA144 and the lower border of the ascending channel on the day graph), 1265.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1260.00 (EMA200 on the weekly chart). The breakdown of the support level of 1248.00 (the Fibonacci level of 50%) raises the risk of the pair XAU / USD returning to the downtrend.
      The signal for the resumption of growth of XAU / USD will be a breakdown of the resistance level of 1290.00. Breakdown of local resistance levels at 1305.00, 1312.00 will confirm the return of the bullish trend within the upward channels on the daily and weekly charts, the upper limit of which runs near the resistance level of 1370.00 (the beginning of the wave of decline since July 2016 and the Fibonacci level of 100%).
      Support levels: 1272.00, 1265.00, 1260.00, 1248.00
      Resistance levels: 1285.00, 1290.00, 1305.00, 1312.00, 1340.00, 1350.00, 1357.00

      Trading Scenarios

      Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1282.00. Take-Profit 1272.00, 1265.00, 1260.00, 1248.00
      Buy Stop 1292.00. Stop-Loss 1282.00. Take-Profit 1305.00, 1312.00, 1340.00, 1350.00, 1357.00



      *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

      Comment


      • USD/JPY: amid the victory of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's party
        24/10/2017
        Current dynamics

        After the results of the parliamentary elections in Japan became known, in which Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's party won a convincing victory, the Japanese Nikkei stock index rose to new highs. This year, the Nikkei index grew by 13%, with almost the growth coming in the period after the beginning of September. The Nikkei Stock Average rose to 21810.00 amid the strengthening of shares of export-oriented companies, ending on a positive 16th consecutive day and setting a record for the duration of continuous growth (6 consecutive weeks).
        The renewed growth of the Japanese economy and the growth of stock markets helped the ruling coalition to get more than two-thirds of the seats in the lower house of parliament. Abe's victory inspired investors who are investing in the growth of the Japanese stock market, lagging behind other world stock markets. Abe supports soft monetary policy, which will promote the growth of the stock market and the reduction of the yen.
        During his reign, Abe will have to decide, in particular, the issue of appointing a new manager of the Bank of Japan. In any case, economists believe that even if Abe replaces the current governor Haruhiko Kuroda, who turns 73 on Wednesday, the central bank will basically maintain an extremely soft monetary policy, including asset purchases of 6 trillion yen in year.
        The next meeting of the Bank of Japan, dedicated to monetary policy, will be held on October 31. Last month, the Bank of Japan reiterated its commitment to buy government bonds in the amount of 80 trillion yen a year, and the head of the Bank of Japan at a subsequent press conference promised that "we will patiently adhere to the policy of powerful easing in order to achieve inflation of 2%" and "will take additional mitigation measures, if necessary".
        At the same time, the dollar continues to grow in the foreign exchange market after it became known about the decision of the US Senate, which approved the draft budget from the presidential administration. The index of the ICE dollar rose to its highs from October 6, above the level of 93.70. Expectations of continued soft monetary policy in Japan and tightening of monetary policy in the US will contribute to the growth of the pair USD / JPY in the medium term.
        *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

        Support and resistance levels
        On Monday, trading on the pair USD / JPY opened with a gap up. Then the pair adjusted to the marks near the closing level of Friday. Today, with the opening of the trading day, the pair USD / JPY is growing again and is trading at the beginning of the European session near the level of 113.80, the opening price of trading on Monday. A strong positive momentum continues to push the pair USD / JPY up to the upper boundary of the range between the levels of 108.10 and 114.40.
        While USD / JPY is trading above the key support level of 111.25 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart, EMA50 on the weekly chart), its positive dynamics persists.
        The alternative scenario implies a return of USD / JPY to the level of 113.10 (the top line of the descending channel on the weekly chart, as well as the Fibonacci level of the 50% correction to the pair growth since August of last year and the level of 99.90) and the resumption of the decline in the downward channel on the weekly chart. The lower boundary of this channel passes near the level of 106.50 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%). The immediate targets will be support levels of 111.25, 111.00, 110.15 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%).
        The breakthrough of the short-term support level 112.95 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) will be a signal for opening of short positions.
        Support levels: 113.50, 113.10, 112.95, 112.00, 111.25, 111.00, 110.15, 110.00, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00
        Resistance levels: 114.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00

        Trading Scenarios

        Buy Stop 113.85. Stop Loss 113.20. Take-Profit 114.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00
        Sell Stop 112.90. Stop Loss 113.40. Take-Profit 112.00, 111.25, 111.00, 110.15, 110.00, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00



        *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

        Comment


        • Brent: oil prices rise
          25/10/2017
          Current dynamics

          As reported on Tuesday by the American Petroleum Institute (API), oil reserves in the US last week rose by 0.5 million barrels. At the same time, stocks of gasoline and distillates dropped quite significantly: -5.8 million barrels and -4.9 million barrels, respectively.
          Oil prices positively received this information after the prices rose during yesterday's trading day. The price for Brent crude oil rose by 1.7% on Tuesday to 58.27, adding about $ 1 per barrel. Brent crude futures for ICE increased by 1.7%, to 58.33 dollars per barrel.
          On Tuesday, the Saudi Arabian Oil Minister confirmed his intention to do everything necessary to reduce the world's oil reserves to an average of 5-year level.
          Last year, OPEC and a number of countries outside the cartel agreed on a total reduction in production of 1.8 million barrels per day. Now it is expected that at the November meeting the participants in the OPEC deal, which currently operates until the end of the first quarter of 2018, will again extend it. Oil prices also are supported by the dynamics of demand. Oil imports to India last month rose to a new high of 4.6 million barrels a day. China imported 37 million tons of oil in September (9% more than in August and 12% more in annual terms).
          Analysts of the oil market forecast an even higher import of oil to Asian countries, in particular, to China and India.
          Today, investors will wait for a weekly report on US reserves and oil production from the US Energy Ministry, which will be published at 14:30 (GMT). It is expected that oil and oil products stocks decreased by 2.578 million barrels last week, after a decrease of 5.731 million barrels the week before last. If the data is confirmed, the positive dynamics of oil prices will continue.
          *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

          Support and resistance levels
          At the beginning of today's trading session, Brent crude is trading in a narrow range near the level of $ 58.10 per barrel.
          The price is rising in the ascending channel on the daily chart, the upper limit of which passes near the level of 60.00. In the event of a breakdown of the nearest resistance level of 58.80 (September highs), the target of further growth will be the resistance level of 61.50 (EMA144 on the monthly chart).
          While the price is above the key support level of 54.70 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), long positions remain relevant.
          The signal for the development of an alternative scenario to decline will be a breakdown of the support level of 57.00 (the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart).
          If the price returns to 54.70, the risks of resuming the downtrend increase with targets at 52.20 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (the Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the mark of 27.00), 50.00 (the lows of August), 48.75, 48.00, 46.20 (50% Fibonacci level), 44.50 (the lows of the year), 41.70 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2%).
          Technical indicators (OsMA and Stochastic) on the daily, weekly, monthly charts are on the buyers side.
          Long positions are preferred.
          Support levels: 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.70, 53.75, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00
          Resistance levels: 58.80, 60.00, 61.50

          Trading Scenarios

          Sell Stop 57.75. Stop-Loss 58.30. Take-Profit 57.00, 56.20, 55.70, 55.30, 54.70, 53.75, 52.20, 50.70
          Buy Stop 58.30. Stop-Loss 57.75. Take-Profit 58.80, 59.00, 60.00, 61.50



          *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

          Comment


          • EuroStoxx50: on the eve of the decision of the ECB
            26/10/2017
            Current dynamics

            The focus of traders today is the ECB's decision on rates, as well as a follow-up press conference at which ECB leaders are expected to clarify the situation with the prospect of the QE program. It is expected that the ECB will keep the interest rate at zero level, and the deposit rate will leave negative, at the level of -0.4%.
            Also, investors believe that the ECB will announce a reduction in the monthly purchases of European government bonds, supposedly from 60 billion euros to 30 billion euros, and this will be the second reduction this year.
            The ECB leadership has stated more than once that stimulation can be extended, for example, for nine months, as inflation in the euro area remains weak, below the target level of just under 2.0%.
            Even if the ECB declares a reduction in purchases, then, given that rates remain at the same level, in general, the monetary policy of the central bank will remain soft.
            Nevertheless, the ECB can and disappoint today buyers, both the euro and European stock assets, unless it announces when it plans to complete the asset purchase program, saying that it still does not exclude any options.
            On the other hand, the Eurozone economy is strong enough to cope with a gradual change in policy. The economy of the Eurozone can show the strongest annual growth since 2007, and the indicators of consumer sentiment reached the maximum marks for a decade.
            Although inflation remains well below the ECB's target, the supply managers' indexes released this week showed that the employment growth rate in the Eurozone peaked in ten years. This allows us to hope that wage growth will support still weak inflation.
            Thus, buying risky assets of the European stock market still looks more promising than putting the euro on further growth.
            The decision on the interest rate will be published at 11:45 (GMT), the press conference of the ECB will start at 12:30 (GMT).
            *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

            Support and resistance levels
            After active growth in September, the current month, the EuroStoxx50 index is trading in the range near the level of 3600.0.
            The positive dynamics of the EuroStoxx50 index persists while it trades above support levels of 3455.0 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the upward channel on the daily chart), 3440.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the downward correction to the wave of growth from July 2016 and from the level of 2675.0 and the bottom line of the upward trend channel on the weekly chart).
            The signal to decline may be a breakdown of the support level of 3555.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart).
            The breakdown of the local resistance level of 3625.0 (October highs) will create prerequisites for further growth with targets at the annual maximum levels near the 3680.0, 3820.0 (absolute highs of 2015 and the upper line of the rising channel on the weekly chart).
            The breakdown of support levels 3455.0, 3440.0 will be a turning point in the development of the bullish trend, which began in June 2016. The immediate goal of further decline is the support level of 3295.0 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%).
            Support levels: 3590.0, 3555.0, 3455.0, 3440.0, 3415.0, 3400.0
            Resistance levels: 3625.0, 3680.0, 3700.0

            Trading Scenarios

            Sell Stop 3570.0. Stop-Loss 3630.0. Take-Profit 3555.0, 3455.0, 3440.0, 3415.0, 3400.0
            Buy Stop 3630.0. Stop-Loss 3570.0. Take-Profit 3680.0, 3700.0, 3820.0



            *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

            Comment


            • GBP/USD: pound drops against dollar after other currencies
              27/10/2017
              Current dynamics

              On Wednesday, when a strong report on UK GDP for the third quarter was presented, the pound rose sharply in the foreign exchange market. Preliminary GDP of the UK, according to the data, in the third quarter increased by 0.4% (+ 1.5% in annual terms). The forecast was + 0.3% and + 1.5%, respectively. The data presented strengthened expectations of an increase in interest rates of the Bank of England at a meeting on November 2. The pair GBP/USD rose on Wednesday by 1% or 130 points, rising to 1.3260.
              And yet, yesterday and today, the pound is down against the dollar after the other currencies, the rivals of the dollar. Despite the fact that the probability of an increase in the Bank of England's rate in November has grown, investors are less likely to believe that an increase in the Bank of England's key rate in November will lead to a series of increases. Today, the British pound / US dollar fell to its lowest level in 2.5 weeks at 1.3080, completely cutting off the growth of the pair, fixed on Wednesday.
              According to many economists, the increase in November will be the only change in rates in 2017 and 2018. And this, against the backdrop of a strengthening dollar, makes it advisable to sell GBP / USD in the medium term.
              The US dollar on Thursday reached its highest level for more than three months against the background of the fall of the euro and the pair EUR / USD. The index of the dollar WSJ, which displays the value of the US currency against a basket of 16 currencies, increased by 0.4%, to 87.53, the highest level since July 13.
              At 12:30 (GMT) today a preliminary estimate of US GDP for the third quarter will be published.
              In the previous quarter, GDP growth was +3.1%. The forecast for the 3rd quarter of this year is + 2.7%. This will be a fairly strong indicator, given the consequences of hurricanes sweeping over the country's south. GDP data will be key to the direction of the dollar's development ahead of the Fed meeting, which will be held next week and will end with the publication on November 1 of the interest rate decision.
              Also, together with the GDP data, the inflationary price index and the price index for personal consumption expenditure will also be published, also for the third quarter. If the data prove to be worse than the forecast, the dollar may react with a decrease. Then, at the end of the last full trading week of the month, profit can be fixed in long positions on the dollar, which will cause its decline, including in the pair GBP/USD. If the data coincides with the forecast or will be stronger, the dollar will continue to grow.
              Given the Fed's predilection for further tightening of monetary policy, the success of the US administration in implementing the new economic policy in the US (on Thursday the US Congress approved the draft budget, which would allow changes to the tax code), as well as strong macroeconomic indicators coming from the US, is likely further growth of the dollar in the medium term.
              Support levels: 1.3000, 1.2975
              Resistance levels: 1.3150, 1.3185, 1.3210, 1.3260, 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760




              *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

              Comment


              • DJIA: stock indexes continue to grow
                30/10/2017
                Current dynamics

                This month, the main US stock indexes are closing in a positive territory, with a decent increase. On Friday, the indices reached new highs after the US received strong macro data. According to the Ministry of Trade, the gross domestic product, the most comprehensive indicator of all goods and services produced in the US, grew by 3% in the third quarter (the forecast was +2.5%). The growth of GDP was not hampered by hurricanes, because of which a number of large enterprises were closed.
                Last week, many US companies reported good financial results. Outstanding results of activity of many large corporations contributed to the growth of the stock market. So, the Dow Jones Industrial Average grew by 0.1% to 23434.19 points. Strong growth in the technological sector helped Nasdaq Composite to increase by 2.2% to 6701.26 points, and the S & P500 - by 0.8% to 2581.07 points. Nasdaq has already reached the 61st new maximum this year, the last time such a number of record marks was recorded in 1999.
                American stock indexes continued to grow actively after earlier this month the US Senate and Congress approved a draft budget submitted by the presidential administration. Now Republicans will be able to carry out their plan for reforming the tax code, suggesting significantly lowering taxes for companies and many individuals, without the support of democrats. The proposed measures will support economic growth.
                In general, the positive dynamics of US stock indices, including the DJIA index, remains. About the reversal of the bullish trend is not yet talking. Probably further growth, not excluding descending, but short-term corrections.
                Data on retail sales, industrial production, orders for durable goods and company sentiment, as well as strong GDP, coupled with positive reports from companies and the success of the presidential administration in implementing economic reforms in the US contribute to maintaining the positive dynamics of the stock market.
                From the news for today, we are waiting for publication at 12:30 (GMT) of inflation indicators (spending on personal consumption, personal income / spending of Americans) for September, which will cause the growth of volatility in financial markets.
                On Wednesday, the meeting of the Committee on Federal Open Market Operations will take place. The decision on the interest rate will be published at 18:00 (GMT). It is expected that the rate will remain at the same level of 1.25%. Apparently, the Fed leaders will again note the rapid recovery of economic data after the hurricanes, which will also positively affect the stock indices.
                *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


                Trading Scenarios
                Buy Stop 23490.0. Stop-Loss 23300.0. Take-Profit 23600.0, 23700.0, 24000.0
                Sell Stop 23300.0. Stop-Loss 23490.0. Take-Profit 23285.0, 22820.0, 22670.0, 22410.0, 22140.0, 22000.0, 21610.0, 21460.0




                *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                Comment


                • USD/JPY: The Bank of Japan did not change its monetary policy
                  31/10/2017


                  Today, the Bank of Japan has decided not to change the current monetary policy and to maintain the key rate on deposits - at the level of -0.1%. The yen reacted quite restrainedly to this decision, which was, in general, the expected investors. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said at a press conference that the bank will adhere to its plan of buying shares. "At the moment I do not think that it is necessary to change anything in the policy of managing the yield curve", Kuroda said.
                  For the second month in a row, the USD/JPY is developing an upward trend. A strong positive momentum continues to push the USD/JPY up to the upper boundary of the range between the levels of 108.10 and 114.40.
                  Today, the pair USD / JPY is trading in the upward short-term channel on the 4-hour chart, near the support level of 113.10 (the top line of the descending channel on the weekly chart, as well as the Fibonacci level of the 50% correction to the pair growth since August last year and the level of 99.90).
                  The signal to open short positions will be the break of the short-term support level of 112.45 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart). The goal of corrective decline is the key support level of 111.45 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart, EMA50 on the weekly chart).
                  Nevertheless, while the USD/JPY is trading above the level of 111.45, its positive medium-term dynamics remains. In case of breakdown of the resistance level of 114.40 (October highs and the upper line of the range formed between the levels 114.40, 108.10), the target of the growth will be the level of resistance 116.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8%).
                  *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

                  Support levels: 113.10, 112.45, 112.00, 111.45, 111.00, 110.15, 110.00, 109.20, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00
                  Resistance levels: 114.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00

                  Trading Scenarios

                  Buy in the market. Stop Loss 112.90. Take-Profit 114.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00
                  Sell Stop 112.90. Stop Loss 113.40. Take-Profit 112.45, 112.00, 111.45, 111.00, 110.15, 110.00, 109.20, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00



                  *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                  Comment


                  • NZD/USD: the pair remains under pressure, despite the correction
                    01/11/2017
                    Current dynamics

                    After the publication of data on the New Zealand labor market for the 3rd quarter, the New Zealand currency sharply increased in price during today's Asian session. According to the Bureau of Statistics of New Zealand, the unemployment rate in New Zealand fell again in the third quarter, reaching 4.6% compared with 4.8% in the second quarter. Thus, unemployment in the 3rd quarter fell to the lowest level since the global financial crisis.
                    Nevertheless, the growth of the NZD / USD pair is likely to be limited in the face of the strengthening US dollar.
                    Today (at 18:00 GMT) is expected to publish the decision of the Federal Reserve on rates. Most economists believe that the rate will be left at the current level of 1.25%. Attention of investors will be focused on the text of the press release from this meeting of the Fed.
                    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

                    Support and resistance levels
                    As a result of the active decline at the end of last month the NZD/USD again reached an important support level of 0.6860 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% and the lower limit of the range between 0.7550 and 0.6860).
                    Nevertheless, attempted breakdown of this level has not yet been crowned with success. On strong data from the New Zealand labor market for 3Q, published yesterday at the end of the trading day, the New Zealand dollar strengthened, and the NZD / USD pair was able to grow to a short-term resistance level of 0.6915 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
                    The upward correction may extend to the resistance level of 0.7060 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) if the results of the Fed meeting or the choice of a new Fed governor will surprise and the US dollar will weaken on this information.
                    Only a return to the zone above the resistance levels of 0.7240 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline of the pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014, here are the minimums of December 2016), 0.7280 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) will signal on the resumption of the medium-term upward dynamics.
                    So far, strong downward dynamics are prevailing.
                    Confirmed breakdown of the support level of 0.6860 will mean the end of the upward correction, which began in September 2015, and a return to the global downtrend.
                    So far, strong downward dynamics are prevailing.
                    Support levels: 0.6900, 0.6860, 0.6800
                    Resistance levels: 0.6980, 0.7060, 0.7150, 0.7200, 0.7240, 0.7280

                    Trading Scenarios

                    Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.6940. Take-Profit 0.6900, 0.6860, 0.6800
                    Buy Stop 0.6940. Stop-Loss 0.6890. Take-Profit 0.7000, 0.7060, 0.7100, 0.7150, 0.7200, 0.7240, 0.7280



                    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                    Comment


                    • DJIA: financial markets are waiting important events
                      02/11/2017
                      Current dynamics

                      For several days in a row, the main US stock indexes are traded in a narrow range, while maintaining, in general, a positive dynamic.
                      As it became known, on Saturday Trump stopped on the candidacy of Powell. He is a Republican and since 2010 has been one of the central bank governors, well aware of the Fed's activities "from within". Powell is considered to be a supporter of the actions of the current head of the Fed, Janet Yellen, and is less inclined to aggressively tighten monetary and credit policy than other candidates. In his opinion, the Fed's actions to raise interest rates "should be carried out gradually, while the development of the economic situation in the country roughly corresponds to expectations". The appointment of Powell is likely to mean continuity in the conduct of monetary policy and, perhaps, a slight easing of measures to regulate financial markets.
                      In addition, the Fed on Wednesday, as expected, kept interest rates unchanged, but signaled that it could raise them one more time this year. Until the end of the year, another meeting of the Fed is scheduled, which should be held December 12-13.
                      "Economic activity is growing at a strong pace, despite the obstacles, made by hurricanes," the Fed said in a statement following the meeting that ended on Wednesday.
                      Markets with a high degree of confidence expect a rate hike in December.
                      At the beginning of the European session, the dollar partially recovered from the initial losses, but remained on the negative territory to most other major currencies. Yield of 10-year US government bonds, according to Tradeweb, fell to 2.371% from 2.378% recorded on Wednesday, and investors, just in case, buy gold in case of unforeseen events.
                      Today investors are waiting for a busy day. The Bank of England is expected to raise the key interest rate for the first time in more than a decade, while Republicans in the United States are preparing to publish a plan for changing the taxation system.
                      At 12:00 (GMT), the Bank of England's interest rate decision will be published, and at 12:30 the Bank of England head, Mark Carney, will make an explanation of the bank's further plans.
                      Thus, today, volatility in the financial markets is expected to grow rapidly. Nevertheless, the US stock market is expected to retain a positive momentum. In addition, analysts closely monitor corporate reporting, which many regard as the main driver of the rally in the stock markets this year
                      *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

                      Support and resistance levels
                      Last month DJIA updated the absolute maximum near the mark 23460.0. Since January 2016 DJIA has been growing steadily. Especially remarkable are the last 8 almost recoilless weeks of growth.
                      Positive dynamics is maintained, and at the beginning of today's European session, the index is trading near the mark of 23400.0. In case of breakthrough of resistance level 23460.0, DJIA growth will continue until the price "gropes" for new resistance levels.
                      Consideration of short positions is possible only in the short term with targets at support levels 22900.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 22720.0 (EMA50 on the daily chart).
                      The signal to open short positions will be a breakdown of short-term support level of 23340.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
                      So far, the DJIA index is trading above the key support levels of 21610.0 (the Fibonacci level is 23.6% correction to the wave growth from the level of 15660.0 after the recovery in February of this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year. The maximum of this wave and Fibonacci 0% is near the mark 23460.0), 21460.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), its long-term positive dynamics persists.
                      Support levels: 23340.0, 22900.0, 22720.0, 22410.0, 22140.0, 22000.0, 21610.0, 21460.0
                      Resistance levels: 23460.0

                      Trading scenarios

                      Buy Stop 23490.0. Stop-Loss 23300.0. Take-Profit 23600.0, 23700.0, 24000.0
                      Sell Stop 23300.0. Stop-Loss 23490.0. Take-Profit 23285.0, 22820.0, 22670.0, 22410.0, 22140.0, 22000.0, 21610.0, 21460.0



                      *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                      Comment


                      • GBP / USD: on the eve of NFP publication
                        03/11/2017
                        Current dynamics

                        The index of supply managers (PMI) for the UK services sector in October was 55.6 (forecast was 53.4, in September PMI for the UK services sector was 53.6). Such data was presented today by the Royal Institute of Procurement and Supply in conjunction with Markit Economics. This index is an indicator of the economic situation in the services sector of the UK and does not have such a strong impact on GDP, as PMI in the manufacturing sector. Despite the strong performance, the pound reacted rather sluggishly to the data presented. Investors continue to assess yesterday's decision by the Bank of England to raise interest rates and the speech of the head of the bank Mark Carney.
                        As you know, the rate was raised to 0.5% from 0.25%, for the first time in the last 10 years, which was not a surprise. Two of the 9 members of the Monetary Policy Committee David Ramsden and John Cunliffe voted against the decision, remaining dissatisfied with the low growth in the British salaries and the decline in domestic spending. The UK economy is largely oriented to the domestic market, and a weak growth or decrease in domestic consumption costs negatively affects the country's GDP growth.
                        The minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England also indicated the need for two stages of raising the rate by the same amount until 2020. In response, the rate of the pound and UK government bonds fell. On Thursday, the pound fell to the dollar by 1.4%.
                        The uncertainty that emerged after the vote for secession from the EU in June 2016 continues to have a negative impact on the country's economy. According to the forecast of the Bank of England, in 2018 and in subsequent years, GDP growth will be 1.7%.
                        Meanwhile, on Friday, the index of the dollar WSJ, assessing its rate to 16 currencies, grew by 0.1%. Investors continue to assess the details of the Republican project and the appointment of Jerome Powell to the post of head of the Fed.
                        Today, investors are preparing to publish (at 12:30 GMT) data on the number of jobs outside of US agriculture in October. This report is a key indicator of the state of the US economy, and favorable data will be taken into account by the Fed in the decision to raise rates at the meeting on December 13. It is expected that the number of jobs (indicator NFP) in October increased by 312,000. In September, for the first time in seven years, there was a decrease in the number of new jobs (by 33,000), which is explained by hurricanes.
                        If the data is confirmed, the dollar will continue to strengthen. If the data prove to be much weaker, for example, below 150,000 new jobs, the dollar will react with a decline throughout the currency market. In any case, a surge in volatility is expected in the period of publication of data from the labor market. Often there is a sharp jump in the dollar in one direction and no less sharp subsequent rollback. Many traders in the US call the day of publication of data on the labor market "pay day".
                        Also, important US macro data (business activity indices in the services sector and production orders) will be published at 14:45 and 15:00 (GMT), which can become a generator of either a rollback after a strong movement on the NFP, or an incentive to strengthen the dollar's movement to the same side.
                        *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


                        Trading Scenarios
                        Sell Stop 1.3030. Stop-Loss 1.3110. Take-Profit 1.3000, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
                        Buy Stop 1.3110. Stop-Loss 1.3030. Take-Profit 1.3185, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3740, 1.3970, 1.4100



                        *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                        Comment


                        • NZD/USD: pair growth will be limited
                          07/11/2017
                          Current dynamics

                          Yesterday, the New Zealand dollar received support after New Zealand's finance minister Grant Robertson said he did not want to include targeting of the national currency in the new responsibilities of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
                          As it became known, the new government of New Zealand intends to new evaluate the policy of the RBNZ. At the first stage, changes will be recommended to the RBNZ policy aimed at increasing employment in New Zealand, and changes will be offered regarding the RBNZ leadership. Decisions in the central bank will have to be carried out by the vote of the committee, while the role of the manager will go to the background. Further changes in the RBNZ policy will be discussed with the involvement of independent experts.
                          It is still not clear how the planned changes in the activities of the RBNZ will affect the quotations of the New Zealand currency. Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters has already hinted that a weakening of the New Zealand dollar could help the country's exporters.
                          A survey of business circles conducted last week in the country showed a sharp drop in confidence, and it turned out to be much lower than its average. The last two weeks there has been a recovery of the New Zealand dollar, which became the leader of the fall last month after the results of the general elections in New Zealand, held at the end of September, became known.
                          Nevertheless, the growth of the NZD/USD is likely to be limited in the face of the strengthening US dollar and, therefore, the decline in commodity prices and the quotations of commodity currencies, which include the New Zealand dollar.
                          The US dollar continues to strengthen in the foreign exchange market as against the background of positive macroeconomic data coming from the US, and against the background of the appointment of a new Fed governor, who will take office in February next year. According to some economists, under the leadership of the new head of the Fed can raise rates not three, but four times in 2018. It is assumed that at the next meeting, which is scheduled for December 12-13, the interest rate will be increased by 0.25%. In the future, the Fed may raise the rate quarterly, starting in March 2018.
                          Thus, the fundamental factors testify to the further reduction of the NZD / USD.
                          From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of the results of the dairy auction (in the period after 14:00 GMT). Two weeks ago, the price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a value of -1% (against the previous value of -2.4%). Dairy products - one of the main exports of New Zealand, therefore, a decline in world prices for dairy products will hurt the quotes of the New Zealand dollar.
                          *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

                          Trading Scenarios
                          Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.6970. Take-Profit 0.6900, 0.6860, 0.6800
                          Buy Stop 0.6970. Stop-Loss 0.6890. Take-Profit 0.7000, 0.7030, 0.7075, 0.7140, 0.7200, 0.7240, 0.7270



                          *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                          Comment


                          • Brent: prices remain on mid-2015 highs
                            08/11/2017
                            Current dynamics

                            Quotations of oil futures fell on Tuesday, however, they remained on the mid-2015 highs. January futures for Brent crude oil fell in price by 0.53%, to 63.35 dollars per barrel. The spot price for Brent crude at the beginning of today's European session is near the mark of 63.55 dollars per barrel after the day before the price reached the high of 2017 near the mark of 64.45 dollars per barrel.
                            Oil prices at the beginning of the week rose to their highest levels since 2015 due to the fact that the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ordered the arrest of more than 50 people on suspicion of corruption, including members of the royal family, ministers and big businessmen.
                            Oil prices also received support after Yemeni hussites rebels launched a ballistic missile in the vicinity of Riyadh, which was shot down in the vicinity of the capital. The tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which supports the hussites, intensified. Both countries are members of OPEC.
                            Investors are concerned that the power struggle in Saudi Arabia, which is the world's largest oil exporter, brings uncertainty to the market, and numerous conflicts in the Middle East can lead to disruptions in oil supplies.
                            Also, the rise in prices is fueled by the expectation that at the November meeting, OPEC will extend the deal. As you know, last year, OPEC and other oil exporters, including Russia, entered into an agreement to reduce total production by 1.8 million barrels a day. In Vienna on November 30, OPEC will hold a meeting, within which the extension of the agreement on the reduction of production, which expires in March 2018, will be discussed.
                            Today, traders are waiting for data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy on oil reserves in the country. The weekly EIA report will be published at 15.30 (GMT).
                            According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), which was published on Tuesday evening, US oil inventories fell 1.6 million barrels last week. Gasoline stocks increased by 520,000 barrels, and distillate stocks decreased by 3.1 million barrels, according to the API report.
                            There is a strong positive impulse of a fundamental nature. The next target is resistance level 65.30 (Fibonacci level 100% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the mark of 27.00).
                            Technical indicators (OsMA and Stochastic) on the daily, weekly, monthly charts are on the buyers’ side. Long positions are preferred.
                            *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

                            Trading Scenarios
                            Sell Stop 62.90. Stop-Loss 63.90. Take-Profit 62.00, 61.50, 60.00, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.70, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00
                            Buy Stop 63.90. Stop-Loss 62.90. Take-Profit 64.45, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00



                            *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                            Comment


                            • XAU/USD: demand for safe assets increased
                              09/11/2017
                              Current dynamics

                              Mass arrests in Saudi Arabia, including members of the royal family, a missile attack on this country by Yemeni rebels, as well as the appearance of risks of slipping in the implementation of the plans of the presidential administration for tax reform, provoked purchase of gold as a safe haven.
                              December gold futures on COMEX finished trading on Wednesday with an increase of 0.6%, at $ 1,283.70 per troy ounce.
                              Reports in the press that the US Republican Party can make changes to its tax reform plan or postpone it for a year, provoked a decline in quotations of the dollar. Some economists believe that tax reform can spur the growth of the US economy and allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at a faster pace. Expectations for raising rates tend to put pressure on gold, which can not compete with more profitable assets with rising borrowing costs.
                              Under conditions of a soft monetary policy in the US and against the backdrop of geopolitical or economic uncertainty, the price of gold, as a rule, is growing.
                              As a result, gold prices on Wednesday closed at 2-week highs, and with the opening of today's trading day quotes on it are rising again.
                              So, the spot price for gold at the beginning of today's European session is near the mark of 1284.00 dollars per troy ounce.
                              Of the news for today, we are waiting for publication at 13:30 (GMT) of weekly data on the labor market (number of applications for unemployment benefits) for the United States. According to the forecast, a slight increase in the indicator is expected - up to 231,000 versus 229,000 for the previous period. However, this figure remains below 300,000 for almost 140 consecutive weeks, which is the longest period since 1970. The consistently low level of applications for unemployment benefits is one of the signs of a strong US labor market.
                              The stable state of the labor market in the US and the low level of unemployment (just above 4%) is a powerful argument for the Fed in considering the possibility of tightening monetary policy in the US. And this is a downward factor for the price of gold.
                              According to the CME Group, the probability of a rate hike in December is taken into account by investors in about 97%.
                              *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

                              Support and resistance levels
                              With the opening of today, the XAU/USD is growing, making an attempt to gain a foothold above the short-term resistance level at 1283.00 (EMA50 on the daily chart, EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). Through the mark of 1283.00 also passes the lower limit of the ascending channel on the weekly chart.
                              If the price is fixed above the local resistance level of 1287.00 (weekly highs), risk of the returning XAU/USD to the upward channel on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which runs near the resistance level of 1370.00 (the beginning of the wave of decline since July 2016 and the Fibonacci level of 100%) grows.
                              The reverse scenario involves a breakdown of the support level of 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the drop in the wave from July 2016 and EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and a decline to support levels of 1267.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1260.00 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
                              The breakdown of the support level of 1248.00 (the Fibonacci level of 50%) raises the risk of the XAU/USD returning to the downtrend.
                              Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the weekly, monthly charts went to the side of sellers.
                              Support levels: 1277.00, 1273.00, 1267.00, 1260.00, 1248.00
                              Resistance levels: 1283.00, 1287.00, 1290.00, 1305.00, 1312.00, 1340.00, 1350.00, 1357.00

                              Trading Scenarios

                              Sell Stop 1281.00. Stop-Loss 1286.00. Take-Profit 1277.00, 1273.00, 1267.00, 1260.00, 1248.00
                              Buy Stop 1286.00. Stop-Loss 1281.00. Take-Profit 1290.00, 1305.00, 1312.00, 1340.00, 1350.00, 1357.00



                              *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                              Comment


                              • AUD/USD: RBA is in indecision
                                10/11/2017
                                Overview and dynamics

                                After earlier in the week the leadership of the RBA again decided to leave the key rate at 1.5%, the Australian dollar remains under pressure. The rate remains at this level since August 2016, and the central bank will most likely leave it unchanged until mid-2018.
                                The longer the RBA will remain idle, while many central banks raise interest rates, the stronger the Australian dollar will fall.
                                Despite the fact that Australian economic data draws a contradictory picture, the RBA is confident in accelerating GDP growth over time. In the coming years, the central bank expects to accelerate the annual GDP growth to 3%, which is almost double the current rate. The Australian economy for the current year has created more than a million jobs, which led to a drop in unemployment. At the same time, indicators of conditions for doing business and business confidence have peaked in the last ten years.
                                On the other hand, inflation data for the 3rd quarter were not particularly impressive. Core inflation, according to the RBA, will not reach the lower end of the target range of 2% -3% until mid-2019. Retail sales in the middle of the year fell sharply, and a slowdown in house prices could undermine consumer confidence.
                                Thus, the Reserve Bank of Australia is in a difficult situation. It can not raise interest rates with weak inflation and high levels of consumer debt, but it can not reduce them because of fears of increasing risks of destabilizing the financial system.
                                Many economists believe that the RBA will return to the issue of raising the interest rate in the country not earlier than mid-2019.
                                And this, amid a large-scale strengthening of the US dollar due to the expectations of a phased tightening of monetary policy in the US, creates the conditions for further reduction of the AUD / USD pair.
                                Support levels: 0.7650, 0.7600, 0.7570, 0.7500, 0.7460
                                Resistance levels: 0.7720, 0.7755, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7980

                                *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


                                Trading scenarios
                                Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7710. Take-Profit 0.7600, 0.7570, 0.7500, 0.7460
                                Buy Stop 0.7710. Stop-Loss 0.7610. Take-Profit 0.7720, 0.7760, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7980



                                *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

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