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  • Brent: Support and resistance levels
    13/11/2017


    There remains a strong positive impulse of a fundamental nature. If growth continues, the next target is resistance level 65.30 (Fibonacci level 100% correction to decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the mark of 27.00).
    Technical indicators (OsMA and Stochastic) on the daily, weekly, monthly charts are still on the buyers side. Long positions are preferred.
    Consideration of short positions is possible after the return of the price under the support level of 62.35 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). The immediate goal is the support level of 59.30 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
    And only if the price returns to the level of 55.00 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) will the risks of resuming the downtrend increase with targets at 54.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (Fibonacci level 61.8%) 50.00 (lows in August), 48.75, 48.00 , 46.20 (Fibonacci 50%), 44.50 (lows of the year), 41.70 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 since June 2015).
    Support levels: 62.90, 62.35, 62.00, 61.50, 60.00, 59.30, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.70, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00
    Resistance levels: 64.00, 64.45, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00

    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


    Trading scenarios
    Sell Stop 62.30. Stop-Loss 64.50. Take-Profit 62.00, 61.50, 60.00, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.70, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00
    Buy Stop 64.50. Stop-Loss 62.30. Take-Profit 65.00, 65.30, 66.00




    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

    Comment


    • GBP/USD: inflation rate in the UK fell slightly
      14/11/2017
      Current dynamics

      After the data on inflation in the UK were released at the beginning of today's European session, the pound declined.
      According to the British Office of National Statistics, inflation in the UK in October was 3% (forecast was + 3.1%), which indicates the possible end of a sharp acceleration in price growth caused by the collapse of the British pound after last year's referendum on UK membership in the EU.
      Core inflation also failed to reach the forecast of 2.9%, amounting, as in September, 2.7%.
      Nevertheless, inflation is still much higher than the target level of the Bank of England, which is 2%. At the same time, prices are growing faster than a salary, which means that consumer spending will remain low-key.
      This is a negative factor for the pound and the country's economy, which focuses on domestic consumption.
      The pound continues to remain under pressure also against the backdrop of the crisis that is ripening in the UK government. As you know, several dozen members of the British Parliament favored the resignation of Prime Minister Theresa May. At the weekend, the Sunday Times reported that 40 parliamentarians agreed to sign a letter of no confidence in Theresa May. The Brexit talks resumed last week, and, according to EU officials, Britain's hopes for the progress of negotiations in December are weakening.
      Thus, the problems in the negotiations of the UK with the EU on Brexit, political uncertainty in the country, based on growing dissatisfaction with the activities of the Prime Minister of the UK, as well as the Bank of England's restrained attitude to the issue of further tightening of monetary policy (as is known earlier this month, the Bank of England decided to raise the key interest rate by 0.25% and planned two more rate hikes in the next two years) create a negative background for the pound. To this, it should be added that last week the European Commission lowered its forecast for GDP growth in the UK this year, including, due to a weak increase in investment in the UK economy against the background of Brexit.
      At the same time, the dollar is recovering today. As it became known, the administration of President Trump will not support the law on taxes, if it provides for a corporate tax rate of over 20%. This was announced the day before by US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin.
      *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


      Support levels: 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
      Resistance levels: 1.3100, 1.3137, 1.3175, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100

      Trading Scenarios

      Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.3125. Take-Profit 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
      Buy Stop 1.3125. Stop-Loss 1.3080. Take-Profit 1.3137, 1.3175, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100



      *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

      Comment


      • AUD/USD: Downtrend prevails
        15/11/2017
        Current dynamics

        Weak data on the growth of wages in Australia, as well as on the level of consumer confidence, published at the beginning of today's Asian trading session, "knocked" the Australian dollar, which fell 4-month low against the US dollar.
        According to data provided on Wednesday, wage growth in the 3rd quarter was 0.5% compared to the previous quarter (the forecast was + 0.7%).
        The Australian dollar remained today almost the only major world currency, declining against the US dollar. And so far, the fundamental background for the Australian dollar remains negative.
        We are waiting for data from the USA today. It is expected that the growth in retail sales in October was 0% (against growth of 1.6% in September). The consumer price index, which is a key indicator for estimating inflation and changing consumer preferences, is also expected with a value just above 0 (+ 0.1%).
        These are very weak values. If the weak data on inflation in the US are confirmed, the US dollar will continue to decline. In this case, an upward correction in the AUD/USD is likely.
        Recall that the publication of macro data from the United States is scheduled for 13:30 (GMT).
        *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

        Support and resistance levels
        AUD / USD continues to decline in the downward channel on the daily chart, the lower limit of which runs near the support level of 0.7535 (balance line and EMA200 on the daily chart in April 2017).
        AUD / USD is below the key resistance levels 0.7710 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 0.7740 (EMA144 and the top line of the descending channel on the daily chart).
        Downward dynamics prevails. Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly and monthly charts are on the side of sellers.
        In the event of further downside, the targets will be support levels of 0.7535, 0.7460 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave of decline of the pair since July 2014; the minimum of the wave is near 0.6830 level). The breakdown of the support level of 0.7460 will return the AUD / USD into a global downtrend that began in July 2014.
        You can proceed to consideration of long positions only after AUD / USD returns to the zone above the resistance level 0.7740 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA144 and the top line of the descending channel on the daily chart). The growth targets in this case will be the levels of 0.7850 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 0.7885 (October highs), 0.7980 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
        Support levels: 0.7600, 0.7535, 0.7500, 0.7460
        Resistance levels: 0.7650, 0.7710, 0.7740, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7980

        Trading Scenarios

        Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7660. Take-Profit 0.7580, 0.7535, 0.7500, 0.7460
        Buy Stop 0.7660. Stop-Loss 0.7590. Take-Profit 0.7710, 0.7740, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7980




        *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

        Comment


        • GBP/USD: the pair is trading in the range
          16/11/2017
          Current dynamics

          Unexpectedly grown in October, retail sales have supported the British currency.
          According to data published on Thursday, retail sales in the UK increased 0.3% in October (the forecast was + 0.1%). In September, as compared to August, sales decreased by 0.7%. It is noteworthy that the most significant increase in October was the sale of second-hand items. Whether the British are moving to a more economical regime due to the weakening of the pound against the background of rising inflation, whether the residents of the UK have grown interested in antiques in terms of its historical value, which, on the contrary, indicates an increase in their welfare. However, compared to October last year, retail sales for the first time since early 2013 decreased (by 0.3%).
          This year, the growth of the UK economy slowed significantly, as consumer expenses are under pressure exerted by inflation accelerated as a result of the fall of the pound after voting for an exit from the EU.
          Last week, the European Commission lowered its forecast for UK GDP growth this year, including, due to a weak increase in investment in the UK economy against the backdrop of Brexit.
          The statistics presented on Tuesday showed that inflation in the UK in October, as in September, rose to 3.0%. At the same time, prices are growing faster than salaries, which mean that consumer spending will remain low-key. This is a negative factor for the pound and the country's economy, which focuses on domestic consumption.
          The pound continues to remain under pressure, even though at the beginning of the month the Bank of England raised its interest rate due to a galloping inflation after the referendum on Brexit. Investors do not believe in the possibility of accelerating the growth of the British economy, as evidenced by the fall, the second week, in a row of the British stock index FTSE. And in the leaders of the fall are shares of British companies that build their business inside the country.
          The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has repeatedly said that the central bank will monitor how the economy reacts to the rate hike in November. It is likely that the Bank of England will not raise rates again in the near future, given the uncertainty associated with Brexit.
          Meanwhile, the US dollar is restoring its positions today in the foreign exchange market. Macroeconomic indicators remain positive, and growth continues in the corporate sector of the US economy.
          Today, the US House of Representatives must pass a vote on the tax bill. Investors will closely monitor the results of voting. Any delay or reduction in the scale of tax cuts can damage to the dollar.
          Also today we are waiting for the publication of important macro statistics from the USA. Among the data - primary applications for unemployment (changes in the number of applications for the past week), indices of import / export prices for October, the volume of industrial production and use of production capacities for October. If the US strong macro statistics comes out, the dollar will continue to recover.
          The publication of the data is scheduled for 13:30, 14:15 (GMT), and at 14:00, 14:10, 14:30, 17:30, speeches of the representatives of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve will begin, which again may cause volatility in the pound trade and the dollar, if they touch upon the subject of monetary policy of the central banks of the United Kingdom and the United States.
          *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

          Support levels: 1.3175, 1.3145, 1.3100, 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
          Resistance levels: 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100

          Trading Scenarios

          Sell Stop 1.3140. Stop-Loss 1.3220. Take-Profit 1.3100, 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
          Buy Stop 1.3220. Stop-Loss 1.3140. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100




          *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

          Comment


          • Brent: the price may stay in the range until the end of November
            17/11/2017
            Current dynamics

            The third day, oil is trading in the range after a sharp decline in the price at the beginning of the week. January futures for Brent crude oil fell in price by 0.21%, to 61.23 dollars per barrel. The spot price for Brent crude at the beginning of today's trading day was close to the level of 61.00 dollars per barrel.
            Nevertheless, at the beginning of today's European session, the price is close to 62.00, through which there is a strong short-term resistance level (200-period moving average on the 1-hour chart).
            Since the opening of the trading day, the price has risen by 1.00 dollars. Nevertheless, it is highly likely that on the eve of the meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) at the end of this month, prices may remain in the range. It is expected that the meeting will extend the deal to reduce oil production.
            As the UAE oil minister said earlier this week, "there is a potential for extending the deal to cut production in order to reduce the surplus on the market." "We are not satisfied that the price of oil for the year increased from 40 to 64 dollars per barrel, and we will discuss the terms of the extension of the agreement," the minister added.
            Today (17:00 GMT), the report of the Baker Hughes oilfield services company on the number of active drilling platforms in the US, which is an important indicator of the activity of the oil sector of the US economy, will be published and significantly affects the quotations of oil prices. The current value of the indicator is 738 active drilling rigs.
            If the number of drilling rigs increases, this will indicate the next recovery of oil production in the United States. The maximum number of active drilling in this year was recorded in August (768 units).
            *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


            Support and resistance levels
            A strong positive impulse of a fundamental nature remains in force and keeps prices from a deeper decline. The current decrease should be considered so far as correctional.
            In case of resumption of growth, the nearest target will be resistance level 62.90 (EMA200 on the monthly chart). The growth above the level of 65.30 will indicate a full recovery in prices after falling from the level of 65.30 in June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark.
            If the decline resumes, then up to the support level of 59.85 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), it should still be considered only as a correction in the uptrend.
            Long positions are preferred.
            Consideration of short medium-term positions is possible after the price returns under support level 59.85. The first signal for the opening of short positions will be the breakdown of the short-term support level of 61.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
            The medium-term targets in this case will be the support levels of 55.00 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 54.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (Fibonacci level 61.8%) 50.00 (August lows), 48.75, 48.00 , 46.20 (Fibonacci 50%), 44.50 (lows of the year), 41.70 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 since June 2015).
            Support levels: 61.00, 60.00, 59.85, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.00, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00
            Resistance levels: 62.00, 62.90, 64.00, 64.45, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00


            Trading scenarios
            Sell Stop 60.80. Stop-Loss 62.20. Take-Profit 60.00, 59.85, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.00, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00
            Buy Stop. 62.20. Stop-Loss 60.80. Take-Profit 62.90, 64.00, 64.45, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00



            *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

            Comment


            • GBP/USD: the range remains relevant
              20/11/2017
              Current dynamics

              Published in the press on the weekend news, that German Chancellor Angela Merkel failed to create a ruling coalition, caused a surge in volatility at the opening of trading on Monday.
              Euro, as well as European stock indexes, above all, DAX (the leading German index), fell at the opening of today. The fall of the euro against the pound in the pair EUR / GBP caused, on the contrary, the growth of the pound, including against the dollar. The pound gets support also against the backdrop of the fact that British Prime Minister Theresa May will most likely convince the government to support the increase in the payment to the European Union for Brexit.
              As you know, the financial question is the cornerstone in the Brexit process. In September, British Prime Minister Theresa May promised that Britain would pay its share in the EU budget until 2020. But the EU authorities said that they still do not have a clear understanding of whether the UK will fully fulfill its obligations. The final amount of payments on Brexit may exceed 60 billion euros. It even mentions a figure of 100 billion euros, but representatives of the UK dispute this figure.
              Last week, the representative of the EU in Brexit talks from the EU Michelle Barbier stated that it would be time for Britain to clarify the situation on the issues of "exit" from the bloc.
              The draft budget will be presented on Wednesday. UK Finance Minister Philip Hammond will present his plan for taxes and expenses, which, apparently, will be met with approval. On this positive for the pound background, the GBP / USD pair can update the local highs of the previous month near the 1.3335 mark.
              Nevertheless, the long-term outlook for the pound will remain negative until the details of the UK's exit procedure from the EU are finally understood.
              Investors will also be interested in data on public sector borrowing, which will be presented on Tuesday (09:30 GMT), as well as the volume of capital investments of British companies in the third quarter, which will be known on Thursday (09:30 GMT). Also at this time on Thursday will be published the second estimate of GDP growth in the UK in the third quarter. Economists expect that in the third quarter GDP grew by 0.4% compared to the previous quarter, which coincides with a preliminary estimate.
              Also volatility in the financial markets may rise on Wednesday, after at 18:00 (GMT) will be published "FOMC minutes". In the published minutes from the November meeting of the Federal Reserve, investors will seek signals on the future of US monetary policy. The publication of the protocol is extremely important for determining the course of the current policy of the Fed and the prospects for raising the interest rate in the United States. According to interest rate futures, the probability of a rate hike in December in the US is above 90%.
              Economists expect that the US labor market situation will continue to improve, and inflation will rise to a target level of 2%, which will force the Fed to raise the key interest rate four times next year.
              And this is the strongest factor for the growth of the dollar, including in the pair GBP / USD.
              *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

              Support levels: 1.3210, 1.3175, 1.3145, 1.3100, 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
              Resistance levels: 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100

              Trading Scenarios

              Sell Stop 1.3230. Stop-Loss 1.3280. Take-Profit 1.3200, 1.3175, 1.3100, 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
              Buy Stop 1.3280. Stop-Loss 1.3230. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3400, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100




              *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

              Comment


              • NZD/USD: pair growth will be limited
                21/11/2017
                Current dynamics

                The large-scale decline in the New Zealand dollar, which began in August, continues. An additional downward impulse to the New Zealand currency was given by the general elections held in late September in New Zealand, as a result of which the ruling conservative party was defeated. The achievements of recent years in the growth of the country's economy belong to the former leadership of the country. First of all, this refers to the improvement of the situation on the labor market of the country. For example, unemployment in the 3rd quarter fell to the lowest level since the global financial crisis.
                It is still too early to say what adjustments the new government will make to the earlier forecasts. Nevertheless, a survey of business circles conducted earlier this month in the country showed a sharp drop in confidence, and it turned out to be much lower than its average. The new government of New Zealand intends to reassess the RBNZ policy. Now the decision-making in the central bank will have to be carried out by the vote of the committee, whereas the role of the manager will go to the background. Further changes in the RBNZ policy will be discussed with the involvement of independent experts.
                As a result of the meeting of the RB of New Zealand held in early November, the interest rate was maintained at the current level of 1.75%.
                According to many economists, the RBNZ can return to consideration of the possibility of raising the rate in New Zealand not earlier than the second half of 2018.
                Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters has already hinted that a weakening of the New Zealand dollar could help the country's exporters.
                On the other hand, the US dollar continues to strengthen in the foreign exchange market both the background of positive macroeconomic data coming from the US, and against expectations of a gradual increase in the rate of the Fed. According to some economists, the Fed can raise the rate not three, but four times in 2018.
                Fundamental factors support the further reduction of the NZD / USD pair.
                From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of the results of the dairy auction (in the period after 14:00 GMT). Two weeks ago, the price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a value of -3.5% (against the previous value of -1.0%). Dairy products - one of the main exports of New Zealand, so the reduction in world prices for dairy products will harms the quotes of the New Zealand dollar.
                *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

                Support levels: 0.6800, 0.6775
                Resistance levels: 0.6863, 0.6900, 0.6960, 0.7030, 0.7075, 0.7110, 0.7200, 0.7240, 0.7270


                Trading scenarios

                Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.6830. Take-Profit 0.6800, 0.6775, 0.6700
                Buy Stop 0.6830. Stop-Loss 0.6790. Take-Profit 0.6863, 0.6900, 0.6960, 0.7030, 0.7075, 0.7100




                *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                Comment


                • S&P500: major indexes have updated highs
                  22/11/2017
                  Current dynamics

                  World stock indexes on Wednesday continued to rise. On the eve, the major US stock indices Dow Jones Industrial Average, S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite updated record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7% to 23590, S & P 500 added 0.7%, Nasdaq Composite rose 1.1%.
                  The leaders of growth were shares of technology companies. Apple's shares rose 1.9%, International Business Machines shares rose 1%, Microsoft shares rose 1.4%. The shares of these three technological giants made the largest contribution to the growth of DJIA. The shares of retailers also significantly strengthened. "Dollar Tree" went up by 2.4%, after the profit and proceeds of this discounter exceeded expectations. Shares of Hormel grew by 3.3%.
                  Yesterday's rally completely offset the losses suffered by the indices in the last two weeks. This points to the strength of growth, despite concerns about the high ratings and unclear prospects for the tax reform proposed by the Republicans.
                  Only a large increase in rates or a decline in the economy, according to economists, could lead to a more significant decline in the American stock market. In the next 6-12 months, this is not expected, therefore, most likely, the bullish trend will continue.
                  On Wednesday, trading on the stock markets is sluggish in anticipation of a weekend in the US on Thursday, and a shortened one on Friday.
                  Investors analyzed the statement of Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, who said that she would withdraw from the Board of Governors of the Central Bank, as soon as Jerome Powell will replace her at the post in February.
                  Today Janet Yellen delivered a speech at the business school at New York University, which investors regarded as soft. "We expect inflation to rise (to the target level) in the next one or two years, but I have to say that I'm not sure about it", Yellen said.
                  "We have almost reached full employment", Yellen said. The unemployment rate in October was 4.1%, becoming the lowest since December 2000. The Fed is facing a problem of low inflation for most of this year, despite the growth of the economy and a strong labor market.
                  Yellen did not comment on the immediate prospects for monetary policy. The probability of a rate hike in December is above 90%, according to the CME Group. The last time the Fed raised rates in June, to the range of 1% -1.25%. At its meeting on September 19-20, the Fed signaled another increase in rates this year. It is expected that in 2018, the Fed will raise 3 or 4 times.
                  As Janet Yellen previously stated, the rate hike speaks of the strength of the American economy. It is unlikely that a gradual increase in rates will cause a reversal of the bullish stock market. On the contrary, the banking sector of the economy will benefit from this.
                  Today, investors will focus on the publication (at 19:00 GMT) of the protocol from the November meeting of the Fed (minutes FOMC). Investors will carefully study the text to understand the outlook for the current Fed policy and the increasing of the interest rate in the US. Volatility during the publication of the protocol can significantly increase, especially against the backdrop of low trading volumes on the eve of the celebration of Thanksgiving Day in the US on Thursday.
                  *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

                  Support levels: 2594.0, 2582.0, 2565.0, 2500.0, 2480.0, 2444.0, 2415.0
                  Resistance levels: 2598.0, 2600.0, 2650.0, 2700.0

                  Trading Scenarios

                  Sell Stop 2592.0. Stop-Loss 2600.0. Objectives 2582.0, 2565.0, 2500.0, 2480.0, 2444.0, 2415.0
                  Buy Stop 2600.0 Stop-Loss 2592.0. Objectives 2650.0, 2700.0



                  *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                  Comment


                  • USD/CHF: the dollar shows a large-scale decline
                    23/11/2017
                    Current dynamics

                    After yesterday (19:00 GMT) minutes from the November meeting of the Fed were published, the dollar collapsed throughout the currency market. Although, in general, the protocols continued to testify to the Fed's commitment to further tightening monetary policy, there was something new in the rhetoric of the Fed's statements, which alarmed investors. Fed executives said that interest rates in December will be increased by 0.25%, however, they are not sure about the reasons for maintaining sluggish inflation. This, according to investors, can slow down the pace of monetary tightening in the coming year.
                    The uncertainty about the Fed's leadership regarding the inflation forecast calls into question the vigorous pace of tightening monetary policy in the US. Earlier, it was announced about 3, and according to some information, 4 rate increases in 2018, starting already in March.
                    As a result, yesterday the index of the dollar WSJ fell by 0.8% after the release of the minutes of the Fed meeting, and today the decline in the dollar continues against the backdrop of low trading volumes. The US and Japanese stock markets are closed today on the occasion of the holidays.
                    On the Eurozone today, positive macro statistics emerged, which caused the euro to rise, including against the dollar, provoking additional pressure on the dollar.
                    The dollar fell strongly against safe haven assets, such as gold, yen, franc. Concerning the dynamics of the franc, it is worth paying attention to the speech of the Head of the National Bank of Switzerland, Thomas Jordan, scheduled for today (16:30 GMT).
                    The Swiss National Bank is pursuing an extra soft monetary policy, trying to disperse inflation in the country and supporting Swiss producers supplying their products for export. To disperse inflation, which is at a record low 0.7%, and lower, the NBS prints huge amounts of francs and uses them to buy foreign shares and bonds. From Thomas Jordan, traders will be waiting for signals about further plans for monetary policy of the National Bank. If he again traditionally declares his adherence to the course of the central bank, then the franc can react with a decrease, including against the dollar.
                    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

                    The negative dynamics is prevailing.
                    In the event of a breakdown of the support level of 0.9800, the targets for the decline will be support levels of 0.9775 (Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the last global decline wave since December 2016 and from the level of 1.0300), 0.9730 (EMA144, EMA200, bottom line of the upward channel on the weekly chart).
                    Support levels: 0.9800, 0.9775, 0.9730, 0.9700, 0.9650, 0.9635, 0.9600, 0.9545, 0.9500, 0.9445
                    Resistance levels: 0.9840, 0.9875, 0.9900, 0.9973, 1.0000

                    Trading Scenarios

                    Buy Stop 0.9840. Stop-Loss 0.9790. Take-Profit 0.9875, 0.9900, 0.9973, 1.0000
                    Sell Stop 0.9790. Stop-Loss 0.9840. Take-Profit 0.9775, 0.9730, 0.9700, 0.9650, 0.9635, 0.9600, 0.9545, 0.9500



                    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                    Comment


                    • EUR/USD: The dollar is recovering, but continues to decline against the euro
                      24/11/2017
                      Current dynamics

                      The third day, the EUR / USD is growing and at the beginning of today's European session again reached the level of 1.1875 (last month's highs). The growth of the pair is facilitated by the sharp weakening of the dollar after the publication of the protocol from the November meeting of the Fed, and the strengthening of the euro against the background of positive macro data on the Eurozone, published on Thursday and Friday.
                      Today we received information about the growth of business optimism in Germany in November.
                      The German IFO index reached a new record high of 117.5 (against the forecast of 116.6 and 116.8 in October), the index of expectations in Germany rose to 111.0 in November (against the forecast of 108.9 and 109.2 last month).
                      The economy of Germany, which is the leading economy of the Eurozone, ranked 4th in the world in terms of GDP, is moving towards a boom. Among the leaders of the Fed there is uncertainty about the rate of inflation, which may somewhat reduce investors' optimism about future increases in rates in the US. At the same time, in the minutes of the ECB meeting published on Thursday, it was said about the proposal of some leaders in the guidelines for the future policy of the ECB - not to link the quantitative easing program to the steady growth of inflation.
                      According to economists, this is a key factor, since it "implies the possibility of completing the program for the purchase of assets in 2018, even if there are no clear signs of accelerating inflation."
                      The dollar is now attempting to recover from a large-scale decline the day before and is rising against commodity currencies and the yen. Nevertheless, the dollar is falling against the euro.
                      A number of positive macro data on the Eurozone, received in the last two days, more than offset political uncertainty in Germany, where the ruling conservative party of Angela Merkel, was in the minority after the German chancellor failed to form a coalition with other opposition parties.
                      In the US today, a shorter working day after Thanksgiving and in view of "Black Friday", when the Christmas sales period starts, and in retail trade huge discounts.
                      From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of important macro data from the US, when at 14:45 (GMT) the indexes of business activity in various sectors of the US economy for November will be published, as well as the composite PMI index. The growth of indicators with values above 50 is expected, which is seen as evidence of economic growth.
                      If the indices are above the forecast values, the dollar will continue to recover. In the second half of the US trading session, the activity of traders will decline, and the volume of trading will be insignificant.
                      *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

                      Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts are on the buyers side. Positive dynamics persists. Nevertheless, the likelihood of a downward correction is also high, if strong macro data comes from the US (at 14:45 GMT).
                      Support levels: 1.1848, 1.1800, 1.1780, 1.1740, 1.1640, 1.1600, 1.1570, 1.1470, 1.1285
                      Resistance levels: 1.1875, 1.1900, 1.1925, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180, 1.2320, 1.2430

                      Trading recommendations

                      Sell Stop 1.1840. Stop-Loss 1.1885. Take-Profit 1.1800, 1.1780, 1.1740, 1.1640, 1.1600, 1.1570, 1.1470, 1.1285
                      Buy Stop 1.1885. Stop-Loss 1.1840. Take-Profit 1.1900, 1.1925, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180, 1.2320, 1.2430



                      *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                      Comment


                      • Brent: on the eve of the OPEC meeting
                        27/11/2017
                        Current dynamics

                        The large-scale weakening of the dollar is reflected not only in the financial markets, but also in the commodity market, including the oil market.
                        Oil prices have been rising for the fifth consecutive month. During today's Asian session, the price of Brent crude slightly decreased. Futures for Brent crude fell down in price by 0.02%, to 63.85 dollars per barrel. The spot price for Brent crude at the beginning of the European session is close to $ 63.20 per barrel, which is about 0.14 dollars lower than the opening price of today's trading day.
                        Nevertheless, the positive dynamics persists. This week the market will wait for the decision of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on the further fate of the production reduction deal.
                        The meeting of OPEC and a number of countries outside the cartel, including Russia, will be held on Thursday in Vienna. Participants will hope for an extension of the agreements to reduce oil production to the end of 2018.
                        If there is no extension of the deal, then this can alert investors, and the prices in this case may drop sharply.
                        In the event of a positive outcome of the meeting and the extension of the deal, prices may soon overcome the $ 65.00 mark and go up to the area of $ 70.
                        As the oil minister of the UAE said earlier this month, "there is the potential for extending the deal to cut production in order to reduce the excess in the market." "We are not satisfied that the price of oil for the year increased from 40 to 64 dollars per barrel, and we will discuss the terms of the extension of the agreement", the minister added.
                        Saudi Arabia is extremely interested in higher world oil prices for a more profitable IPO of state-owned company Saudi Aramco, which is the largest oil company in the world.
                        An upward trend in oil prices may also be linked to the risks of a possible production disruption in Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
                        Nevertheless, the negative impact on prices will be provided by the growing production of shale oil in the US, which will create a new inflow of oil to the market.
                        After a decline in recent months due to hurricanes over the US, the number of oil rigs in the US increased by nine units last week to 747 units, according to Baker Hughes. The maximum number of active drilling in this year was recorded in August (768 units). So, American oil companies still have a significant prospect for growth and increase in production. This will become one of the main negative factors. However, further price increases, perhaps, can not be avoided if the agreement to reduce production on Thursday will be extended.
                        *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

                        So far, a strong positive impulse of a fundamental nature remains in force, and long positions are preferred.
                        Support levels: 62.90, 62.60, 61.50, 61.00, 60.00, 59.85, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.00, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00
                        Resistance levels: 64.00, 64.45, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00, 67.00

                        Trading scenarios

                        Sell Stop 62.80. Stop-Loss 63.60. Take-Profit 62.60, 61.50, 61.00, 60.00, 59.85, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00
                        Buy Stop 63.60. Stop-Loss 62.80. Take-Profit 64.00, 64.45, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00, 67.00




                        *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                        Comment


                        • USD/JPY: The dollar is trying to recover
                          28/11/2017
                          Current dynamics

                          "I think that the agreement (between the government and the Bank of Japan on the target inflation rate of 2%) remains in force, and I do not see any need to change anything", Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said today in a speech to members of the parliamentary committee. "I expect that the Bank of Japan will adhere to the mitigation policy in order to achieve the target level of inflation", he said. At the meeting of the same parliamentary committee, the Governor of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda spoke in support of the current soft monetary policy.
                          These statements were made at a time when market participants expect that the Bank of Japan may consider raising interest-rate targets in the near future to ease the collateral effect of the aggressive easing of monetary policy.
                          This has become one of the factors of strengthening the yen, including against the dollar, this month.
                          Expectations for changes in the direction of extra soft policy of the Bank of Japan stopped this month the growth of the Japanese stock index Nikkei Stock Average. This year, the Nikkei index grew by 18%, with almost the growth coming in the period after the beginning of September. Nikkei Stock Average reached a peak this month near the mark of 23400.00 amid the strengthening of shares of export-oriented companies and the victory of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's party in the parliamentary elections held in Japan last month. Nikkei Stock Average set a record for the duration of continuous growth (8 consecutive weeks). However, the index subsequently declined amid expectations of a change in the policy of quantitative and qualitative easing by the Bank of Japan and the strengthening of the yen, while other major central world banks made statements that showed the possibility of a gradual tightening of their monetary policies.
                          Stopping the growth of the Japanese stock market, apparently, has alarmed the monetary authorities of Japan. And today Abe and Kuroda tried to dispel doubts of investors in the commitment of the Bank of Japan to the former soft policy.
                          The next meeting of the Bank of Japan, dedicated to monetary policy, will be held on December 21. Last month, the Bank of Japan reiterated its commitment to buy government bonds in the amount of 80 trillion yen a year, and the head of the Bank of Japan at a subsequent press conference promised that "we will patiently adhere to the policy of powerful easing in order to achieve inflation of 2%" and " take additional mitigation measures, if necessary ".
                          At the same time, the dollar is now recovering in the foreign exchange market and continues to grow during the European session, interrupting the drop observed within 4 days after the publication of the minutes from the November meeting of the Fed.
                          On Monday, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Robert Kaplan, spoke in favor of raising rates "in the near future", in part because of concerns over the economy's overheating.
                          Today, the dollar also was supported by the statements of the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William Dudley, who said that the economy is close to achieving full employment. Dudley reiterated his view that low inflation with low unemployment - "not really bad" and expressed support for a gradual rate hike.
                          Investors are waiting for Jerome Powell's speech in the Senate today. "We expect that interest rates will grow a little more, and the amount of the balance will gradually decrease", says the text of his speech, which will begin at 14:44 (GMT).
                          It is likely that Powell will support the Fed's plan to further raise the rate, which will provide short-term (1-2 days) support to the dollar.
                          *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

                          Support levels: 110.80, 110.15, 110.00, 109.20, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00
                          Levels of resistance: 111.65, 111.85, 112.55, 113.10, 114.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00

                          Trading Scenarios

                          Buy in the market. Stop Loss 110.70. Take-Profit 111.65, 111.85, 112.55, 113.10, 114.00, 114.40
                          Sell Stop 110.70. Stop Loss 111.70. Take-Profit 110.15, 110.00, 109.20, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00



                          *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                          Comment


                          • DJIA: indexes updated recent absolute highs
                            29/11/2017
                            Current dynamics

                            After yesterday, the main US stock indexes updated the absolute highs, today the indices are traded in a narrow range, maintaining a positive momentum.
                            It is likely that the news that North Korea has launched another ballistic missile, which, according to the leadership of North Korea, can reach any point of the United States, kept the markets from continuing growth. Experts confirmed that the launched missile had a higher trajectory. This launch may once again intensify tensions in the region and worsen the country's relations with the United States.
                            So far, investors' reaction to this news has been rather low-key. It is likely that they are waiting for a reaction from the administration of the US President. If aggressive statements follow, investors can again begin to withdraw funds into safe assets and sell some of the high-risk assets of the stock market. The tougher the statements from the US president, the stronger the stock markets can "shake".
                            If the reaction from the administration of the US president does not follow, then the growth in US stock exchanges will continue.
                            Investors continue to analyze positive economic data from the US, as well as information that the US Senate Budget Committee voted on Tuesday to adopt a tax bill proposed by Republicans.
                            Now we can assume that the bill will be approved on Thursday, when it will be put to the vote in the Senate. Republican leaders are confident that they will be able to get 50 votes needed to approve the bill.
                            At the same time, investors drew attention to the positive macro data received from the US on Tuesday. The index of consumer confidence in the US (according to the Conference Board version) rose in November to a new high for 17 years and amounted to 129.5 against 126.2 in October. The national housing price index in the USA increased by 6.2% in September (against + 5.9% in August) compared to the same period of the previous year, showing the fastest annual growth since June 2014. The growth of the production index (according to the Fed-Richmond data) was 30 in November (against 12 in October), the highest level since 1993.
                            The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 2.338% from 1.328% on Monday.
                            As a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell said yesterday during a hearing in the banking committee of the Senate, the Fed may move toward "normalizing interest rates". In his opinion, "if to wait too long for an increase in rates, the economy may overheat". Powell also suggested that US GDP growth in 2018 will be 2% -2.5%, and the unemployment rate will drop below 4%.
                            The data show that the growth of the US economy is accelerating towards the end of the year. Now investors are trying to understand how aggressively the Federal Reserve will be able to raise rates in the next year. The higher cost of borrowing makes the dollar and US assets more attractive for purchases.
                            Today, again, the rapid growth of volatility in the financial markets is expected during the American session, when important macro statistics from the United States begin to arrive, and Fed Chairman Janet Yellen (15:00 GMT) and FOMC member San Francisco FRB John Williams (at 17:45) start speeches.
                            If the data presented (GDP for the 3rd quarter (preliminary release), as well as the inflation index of spending on personal consumption of Americans) coincides with positive forecasts or will be stronger (3.2% GDP is expected to grow against 3.0% in the second quarter), then the dollar and US stock indices will react with growth.
                            At 19:00 (GMT) "Beige Book" with an economic review of the Fed the current situation in the US economy will be published.
                            The US stock market is expected to retain positive dynamics in the short term, if unexpected extraordinary events of a geopolitical scale do not follow.
                            *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

                            Support levels: 23560.0, 23340.0, 23250.0, 22900.0, 22720.0, 22400.0, 22000.0, 21930.0
                            Resistance levels: 23900.0

                            Trading Scenarios

                            Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 23780.0. Take-Profit 23900.0, 24000.0, 24100.0
                            Sell Stop 23780.0. Stop-Loss 23910.0. Take-Profit 23560.0, 23340.0, 23250.0, 22900.0, 22720.0, 22400.0, 22000.0, 21930.0



                            *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                            Comment


                            • EUR/USD: amid positive US macro data
                              30/11/2017
                              Current dynamics

                              According to the US Department of Commerce, the gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of the production of goods and services in the economy, increased by 3.3% per annum in the third quarter (the forecast was + 3.0% and + 3.1% quarter).
                              This growth was the strongest in three years.
                              Federal Reserve manager Jerome Powell, who was nominated by US President Donald Trump as chairman to replace Janet Yellen, said on Tuesday at a Senate hearing that he expects GDP growth in 2017 to be 2.5%.
                              The yield of 10-year US government bonds, according to Tradeweb, after the release of data on US GDP on Wednesday rose to 2.385% from the level of 2.338% recorded on Tuesday.
                              "I believe that there are conditions for raising interest rates at the next meeting", Powell told lawmakers. The next meeting of the Fed is scheduled for December 12-13. Almost with 100% certainty, investors expect an increase in the key rate in December by 0.25%, which is currently in the range of 1% -1.25%.
                              President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, FOMC member John Williams on Wednesday also called for higher rates.
                              "As long as the data continues to indicate stable growth, and we see such an increase in inflation as we expect, we, in my personal view, should continue to slowly increase interest rates next year. If we do not return interest rates to more normal levels, we risk undermining steady growth and create conditions that could lead to a recession in the future", he said.
                              In a report published on Wednesday by the Federal Reserve System, known as the "Beige Book", it is said that economic activity in the country has increased "from modest to moderate" in recent weeks amid signs of rising prices and the continued strengthening of the labor market.
                              And yet, the dollar's growth on Wednesday turned out to be restrained, and on Thursday the dollar traded in different directions from the opening of the trading day and during the Asian session, declining against the euro and the pound. Apparently, several important factors do not allow the dollar to move into a more aggressive offensive.
                              Earlier in the week, the Budget Committee of the US Senate approved the republican bill of tax reform. On Thursday, a vote on this bill in the Senate should take place. Republican leaders are confident that they will be able to get 50 votes needed to approve the bill. And yet, there is a certain share of the risk for investors who are betting on the further growth of the dollar, if the bill is not adopted today in the Senate.
                              Disagreements among the leaders of the Fed on the pace and need to raise rates in 2018, which became clear from the previously published protocols from the November meeting of the Fed, also impose a negative imprint on the dynamics of the dollar.
                              *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

                              Support and resistance levels
                              At the beginning of the European session EUR / USD resumed its decline. This was facilitated by statistical data, published at 10:00 (GMT) and indicated that the rate of inflation in the Eurozone in November remained low.
                              The annual preliminary consumer price index (CPI) of the Eurozone in November is + 1.5% (against + 1.4% in October and + 1.6% according to the forecast). The unemployment data in the Eurozone, which declined to 8.8% in November (against 8.9% in the forecast and last month), slightly brighten the negative picture.
                              The EUR / USD could not develop the upward momentum and gain a foothold above the resistance level at 1.1875 (last month's highs). Breakdown of resistance level 1.1900 would determine its further growth.
                              EUR / USD broke the short-term support level 1.1837 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart, EMA50 and the bottom line of the upward channel on the 4-hour chart) and is down to support level 1.1780 (Fibonacci level 38.2% corrective growth from the lows reached in March 2015 year in the last wave of global decline of the pair from the level of 1.3900, as well as EMA144, EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
                              The break of this level will call into question the further growth of EUR / USD, and the medium-term reduction targets will be the support levels 1.1640 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the upward channel on the weekly chart), 1.1585 (EMA144), 1.1490 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
                              Support levels: 1.1800, 1.1780, 1.1765, 1.1640, 1.1600, 1.1585, 1.1490, 1.1285
                              Resistance levels: 1.1837, 1.1875, 1.1900, 1.1930, 1.1960, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180, 1.2320, 1.2430

                              Trading Scenarios

                              Sell Stop 1.1810. Stop-Loss 1.1880. Take-Profit 1.1780, 1.1765, 1.1640, 1.1600, 1.1585, 1.1490
                              Buy Stop 1.1880. Stop-Loss 1.1810. Take-Profit 1.1900, 1.1960, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180, 1.2320, 1.2430



                              *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                              Comment


                              • GBP/USD: pound declines despite strong macro data
                                01/12/2017
                                Current dynamics


                                According to data provided today by IHS Markit Ltd., the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the UK manufacturing sector rose to 58.2 in November (the previous estimate was 56.6, the forecast was 56.5). Thus, the November figure was the highest in 51 months.
                                This indicator assesses the business climate and conditions in the manufacturing sector in the UK and is an important indicator of the business environment and the overall state of the country's economy. The manufacturing sector, the second most important in the UK after the services sector, forms a significant part of the final UK GDP. The value above 50 indicates an increase in activity, and below - to reduce it. Steady growth in activity in the UK manufacturing sector contributes to the recovery of the British economy as a whole.
                                This is a good sign for investors who put on the rise of pound and restoring of the British economy after the collapse of the pound after Brexit. And, nevertheless, the pound ignored the strong PMI for the manufacturing sector and continued the decline that began during the Asian session.
                                This week, the pound was supported by the news of progress in the negotiations on Brexit, although negotiations are still going on. Great Britain has increased the amount it is willing to pay for withdrawing from the European Union. The parties came to a preliminary agreement on the payment by the UK for the exit from the EU from 40 to 55 billion euros.
                                However, the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland threatens to give up support for the UK-based coalition if conditions for Northern Ireland differ from those for the rest of the country. The reminiscing about itself and the once again manifested uncertainty around Brexit halted the almost non-stop 4-week growth of the pound and the GBP / USD pair.
                                At the same time, the dollar also suspended its ascent after yesterday's vote in the Senate on the tax bill of the Republicans was postponed.
                                It turned out that the US budget deficit will increase by 1 trillion dollars within 10 years, if the proposed plan is adopted. Reducing the tax from US companies to 20% from the current 35% was the main point of the new economic policy of President Donald Trump. This promised to accelerate economic growth and inflation.
                                Thus, today in the foreign exchange market there is a multidirectional dynamics of the dollar.
                                At 15:00 (GMT) will be published important macro indicators for the United States. Among them - the index of business activity ISM (for November) in the manufacturing sector, which is an important indicator of the state of the US economy as a whole, the index of gradual acceleration of inflation from ISM for November, which assesses the state of the US industrial sector and the mood of business representatives regarding inflation. A relative decrease in indicators is expected, although, in general, indicators will remain well above the value of 50, which indicates the growth of this sector of the US economy.
                                Also during the American trading session (at 14:05, 14:30, 15:15 GMT) a number of representatives of the Federal Reserve, including the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis James Bullard, the executive director of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank Robert Stephen Kaplan, the head of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank Patrick Harker, will speak. At this time (from 14:05 to 15:15) the volatility of trades will grow not only in terms of the dollar, but also in the American stock market.
                                *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

                                Support levels: 1.3500, 1.3400, 1.3365, 1.3265, 1.3210, 1.3175, 1.3100, 1.3055
                                Resistance levels: 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050

                                Trading Scenarios

                                Sell Stop 1.3460. Stop-Loss 1.3520. Take-Profit 1.3400, 1.3365, 1.3265, 1.3210, 1.3175, 1.3100, 1.3055
                                Buy Stop 1.3520. Stop-Loss 1.3460. Take-Profit 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050



                                *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

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