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  • Brent: despite the decline, the upward trend is prevailing
    04/12/2017
    Current dynamics

    Last week in Vienna, OPEC, Russia and a number of other major oil-producing countries agreed to further reduce oil production by about 1.8 million barrels a day, or about 2% of global oil production.
    The deal was extended until the end of 2018. The task of rebalancing the market has not yet been fulfilled, according to representatives of the countries participating in the meeting, which together control about 60% of world oil production.
    "We need to wait for the exact rate of reduction (stocks) in the second quarter, and we will consider them at the June meeting. We expect that unless something unexpected happens, we will not change our course in the second half of the year", Saudi Energy Minister Khaled Al-Falih said in Riyadh today.
    At the same time, American oil companies will make their own decisions, Al-Falih said. The US can work in the existing parameters, according to Al-Falih.
    Nevertheless, the proposal from the United States and other countries not participating in the deal will continue to grow. Now that the OPEC agreement on production cuts has been extended, the market will become dependent on oil production data, as well as sensitive to the dynamics of the dollar.
    So, today in Asia quotations of oil futures fell against the background of the strengthening of the dollar. Prices lost some of the positions won at the end of last week.
    February futures for Brent crude oil fell 0.47%, to 63.43 dollars per barrel. The spot price for Brent crude at the beginning of the European session is close to the level of 63.20, which is $ 0.3 per barrel less than the opening price of today's trading day.
    The dollar received good support today after it became known on Saturday about the adoption of the US Senate tax bill. It provides for a reduction of the tax from companies to 20% from 35%, which should stimulate the growth of the US economy and the dollar in the long term.
    Some pressure on oil prices was also provided by a report on Friday from the American oil service company Baker Hughes that the number of oil drilling rigs in the US increased by 2 units last week to 749 units after growing 9 units earlier two weeks ago. The maximum number of active drilling in this year was recorded in August (768 units). US oil producers still have a significant prospect for the production growth. Especially, the growth of oil production in the US will be stimulated by the extended OPEC deal and high oil prices. This, along with the growth of the dollar, will become one of the main constraints to the growth of oil prices.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support and Resistance levels
    From the end of June, Brent crude oil is traded in the upward channel on the daily chart, the upper limit of which runs near the 67.00 dollars per barrel mark.
    The price remains above the key support level of 62.90 (EMA200 on the monthly chart), and in case of resumption of growth the nearest target will be a local resistance level of 64.50 (November highs). Growth above the level of 65.00 will indicate a full recovery in prices after falling from the level of 65.00 in June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the mark of 27.00. According to optimistic forecasts, the price may soon overcome the $ 65.00 mark and rise to the area of $ 70.00.
    Support levels: 62.90, 62.00, 61.50, 61.00, 60.00, 59.00, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.50, 55.00, 54.00, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00
    Resistance levels: 63.50, 64.00, 64.50, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00, 67.00

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 62.80. Stop-Loss 63.60. Take-Profit 62.60, 61.50, 61.00, 60.00, 59.85, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.50
    Buy Stop 63.60. Stop-Loss 62.80. Take-Profit 64.00, 64.50, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00, 67.00



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

    Comment


    • AUD/USD: The RBA kept its benchmark interest rate at 1.5%
      05/12/2017
      Current dynamics

      During today's Asian trading session, the Australian dollar was growing.
      First, it rose against the background of more positive than expected retail sales figures for October. According to the data, retail sales in October in Australia increased by 0.5%, exceeding expectations. In September, the indicator grew only by 0.1%, and in August and July, retail sales in Australia decreased by 0.6% and 0.2%, respectively.
      Then, the Australian dollar received support from positive data from China, according to which activity in the services sector of China in November grew at a faster pace. The index of supply managers (PMI) for the service sector of China, calculated by Caixin Media Co. and research company Markit, in November it increased to 51.9 against 51.2 in October.
      Later (at 03:30 GMT), the RBA decision was published, according to which the interest rate was saved at the current level of 1.5%. This RBA decision was expected, and it did not make a strong impression on market participants. The Australian dollar reacted rather weakly to the decision of the RBA.
      In the accompanying statement of the RBA it was stated that "interest rates correspond to the goals in relation to GDP, inflation. Low rates support the Australian economy, and a higher rate of the Australian dollar will slow the economic recovery".
      RBA Governor Philip Lowe reiterated that, in the opinion of the board, "it is advisable to leave monetary policy unchanged at this meeting in order to maintain a stable growth of the economy and achieve a target inflation rate over time".
      Contradictory economic indicators (record low wage growth rate, surplus labor market resources and weak inflationary pressures) contribute to the cautious approach of RBA leaders towards monetary policy. Therefore, in the foreseeable future, interest rates are likely to remain unchanged.
      At the same time, strong macro data and positive news on the success of the presidential administration in promoting tax reform continue to flow from the US. This will accelerate economic growth in the country and increase inflation. This, in turn, will allow the Fed to aggressively tighten monetary policy, which will increase the attractiveness of the dollar and the assets of the American stock market.
      Thus, a different focus of monetary policy in Australia and the US will further reduce AUD / USD in the medium term.
      From the news for today we are waiting for data from the USA. At 14:45 (GMT) will be published indexes of business activity in the service sector (PMI), which is an indicator of the state of the services sector in the US economy. According to the forecast, a slight decrease is expected after a strong growth in October (59.0 versus 60.1 in October). Nevertheless, the result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the US dollar. It is likely that the decline in the US dollar, if the data will be weaker than the forecast values, will be short-term in nature.
      *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


      Support and resistance levels
      Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily charts are on the buyers side. Therefore, if the resistance level of 0.7655 breaks, the AUD / USD growth will continue to the resistance level of 0.7695 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
      Nevertheless, the downward dynamics prevails.
      Support levels: 0.7625, 0.7600, 0.7520, 0.7500, 0.7460
      Resistance levels: 0.7640, 0.7655, 0.7695, 0.7715, 0.7740, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7950

      Trading Scenarios

      Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7665. Take-Profit 0.7625, 0.7600, 0.7520, 0.7500, 0.7460
      Buy Stop 0.7665. Stop-Loss 0.7620. Take-Profit 0.7695, 0.7715, 0.7740, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7950



      *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

      Comment


      • Christmas: it’s time to make presents!
        Wishing you a merry Christmas and happy New Year, we have already prepared some presents for you!



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        On Christmas Eve, 24th December 2017, the following prizes will be raffled:
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        • 2 Samsung Galaxy S8 or iPhone X.

        Winning accounts will be determined randomly.
        The detailed conditions and the list of accounts participating in the Promotion can be found here.
        We wish you success in trading and a happy New Year!
        Best Regards,
        Tifia Broker

        Comment


        • USD/CAD: the meeting of the Bank of Canada
          06/12/2017
          Current dynamics

          In the focus of attention of traders today will be the meeting of the Bank of Canada and publication of the decision on the interest rate. Bank of Canada twice this year raised rates - in July and September. Inflation remains below the target level of 2%. The head of the Bank of Canada, Poloz noted earlier that the target range for inflation is 1% -3%, and said that the decline in the Canadian dollar will support exports. The Central Bank does not promise that the next step will be in favor of a rate hike, but the statement of the Bank of Canada says that it will closely monitor the level of household debt, and will decide in which direction the next change in monetary policy will be.
          The decision to raise the rate was motivated by the desire to somewhat stabilize the monetary policy in the country against the background of rising oil prices after a series of lowering rates after the crisis in 2008.
          It is widely expected that the rate will remain at the current level of 1.0%. The growth of the Canadian economy slowed in the second half of the year. In the third quarter, GDP grew only by 1.7% (after growth of 4.2% in 2Q). According to economists, the Bank of Canada will not change the interest rate until the second half of 2018 to wait for clearer signals about the economic recovery, despite the strong labor market in the country.
          At the same time, the Fed intends to continue tightening monetary policy. The different focus of monetary policy in the US and Canada will be the most important factor in favor of the growth of the pair USD / CAD.
          On the other hand, unexpected solutions are not excluded. As the recent events have shown, the Bank of Canada is able to surprise the markets. This applies, in particular, to unexpected increases in rates in July and September, despite the low inflation in Canada.
          If today the rate is also raised, then the Canadian dollar will be sharply strengthened.
          *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

          Support and resistance levels
          On strong data from the Canadian labor market published on Friday, the pair USD / CAD broke through the important support levels 1.2835 (EMA200), 1.2770 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1.2740 (Fibonacci level 38.2% downward correction to the pair's growth in the global ascendant trend from September 2012 and 0.9700 mark), 1.2715 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and again tries to return in to the descending channel on the weekly chart, trading just below its upper limit at the beginning of today's European session.
          Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts have deployed to short positions, signaling a possible resumption of the downtrend.
          So far, the downward trend is prevailing.
          In case of breakdown of the local support level 1.2620, the target for further reduction will be the support level 1.2500 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
          The breakdown of the support level at 1.2430 will completely return the USD / CAD pair to the downtrend and send it (within the downward channel on the weekly chart) to support levels 1.2170 (50% Fibonacci level), 1.2050 (2017 low).
          The long-term goal of the decline is support level 1.1590 (Fibonacci level 61.8% and the bottom line of the descending channel on the weekly chart).
          The signal for the resumption of growth will be the return of USD / CAD to the zone above the resistance level of 1.2740. A break of resistance level 1.2900 will return the pair USD / CAD to the upward global trend, which began in September 2012.
          Support levels: 1.2620, 1.2500, 1.2430, 1.2300, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050
          Resistance levels: 1.2715, 1.2740, 1.2770, 1.2835, 1.2900

          Trading Scenarios

          Sell Stop 1.2650. Stop-Loss 1.2690. Take-Profit 1.2620, 1.2500, 1.2430, 1.2300, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050
          Buy Stop 1.2690. Stop-Loss 1.2650. Take-Profit 1.2715, 1.2740, 1.2770, 1.2835, 1.2900



          *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

          Comment


          • XAU/USD: The dollar is stable against the backdrop of new signs of strengthening the labor market
            07/12/2017
            Current dynamics

            The dollar continues to bargain with the rise after it rose on Wednesday amid new signs of strengthening the labor market in the US. The ADP report, based on data from private companies, as well as on government data, pointed to a 190,000 increase in jobs in the private sector in the United States (the forecast was +175,000).
            Hopes for signing the law on tax reform also support the US dollar. Earlier it became known that on Saturday the Senate passed a bill providing for lowering the tax from companies to 20% from 35%. This victory of Republicans and the administration of Donald Trump promises to give a new impetus to the US economy and accelerate the growth of inflation, which will allow the Fed to tighten its monetary policy more confidently.
            Despite disagreements between legislators, it is very likely that the final bill on tax reform will appear before the end of this year. And this, of course, is a strong fundamental factor for the growth of the dollar and the assets of the American stock market.
            This, in turn, encourages investors to withdraw funds from safe assets, directing them to purchase higher-yield assets.
            Today we are waiting for the publication at 13:30 (GMT) macro data from the United States. According to the US Department of Labor, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits last week increased by 2,000 and amounted to 240,000. Despite the small increase, the number of unemployed has remained at the lowest level since 1973, and initial claims for benefits are kept below the mark in 300 000 for more than 2.5 years. This is the longest series since 1970. Employers will have to raise salaries to retain or attract employees, which will lead to an increase in personal incomes, correspondingly, expenditures and a gradual acceleration of inflation.
            And this is a downgrade factor for gold prices, as in the case of rising inflation rates increase becomes more real event. The cost of acquiring and storing gold in this case will grow.
            *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


            Support and resistance levels
            The XAU / USD declines for the third day in a row, breaking through the important support levels 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016), 1275.00 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1269.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart). The next target of the decline will be the support level of 1248.00 (Fibonacci level of 50%).
            A break of this level could provoke further weakening of the pair XAU / USD and a return to the global downtrend that began in October 2012.
            An alternative scenario involves a weakening of the dollar and a return of XAU / USD to the zone above the resistance level of 1280.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart).
            Meanwhile, against the background of the strengthening of the dollar, negative dynamics of XAU/USD predominate.
            Support levels: 1250.00, 1248.00
            Resistance levels: 1260.00, 1269.00, 1275.00, 1277.00, 1280.00, 1290.00, 1300.00, 1305.00, 1312.00

            Trading Scenarios

            Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1265.00. Take-Profit 1250.00, 1248.00, 1240.00
            Buy Stop 1265.00. Stop-Loss 1255.00. Take-Profit 1269.00, 1275.00, 1277.00, 1280.00, 1290.00, 1300.00, 1305.00



            *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

            Comment


            • GBP/USD: pound grows on breakthrough in Brexit talks
              08/12/2017
              Current dynamics

              The pound continues to trade stably ahead of the publication (13:30 GMT) of data from the US labor market, including against the dollar. Strong data are expected: the increase in the number of new places created in the non-agricultural sector of the US economy amounted to 200,000 in November (after an increase of 261,000 new seats in October), the average hourly wage rose by 0.3% (after rising in October 0%), unemployment remained at the same level of 4.1%.
              It is likely that the dollar will strengthen in response to the publication of strong data.
              This is the latest important macro data before the Fed meeting next week (December 12 - 13). If labor market data comes out, as predicted, with strong values, then there will be no last doubt that the Fed will raise the rate at this meeting. And, although this increase, by and large, is already taken into account in prices, strong macro data creates the basis for further rate increases. And this is a strong fundamental factor for the further growth of the dollar.
              The optimism of investors regarding the prospects for the US economy has increased. The index of the dollar WSJ, which displays the value of the US currency against a basket of 16 currencies, increased by 0.1%, to 87.25.
              In anticipation of the publication of strong data from the labor market, the dollar is growing in price against major competitor currencies, including against safe assets, the yen, the franc, and gold. The exception is, perhaps, only the pound, which maintains positive dynamics, including in the GBP / USD.
              Today, the pound received additional support after the results of the talks of European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker with the prime ministers of Ireland and Great Britain became known.
              British Prime Minister Theresa May and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker announced that the UK and the EU reached an agreement under Brexit terms. Now, after six months of tense negotiations, the way to discussing the trade agreement has been opened. "I believe that we have reached the necessary breakthrough", Juncker said. The agreement on the conditions for the exit of the UK from the EU, which include financial conditions, the conditions for the stay of EU citizens in the UK, and the settlement of the border problem with Ireland, means that EU representatives are now likely to agree to further negotiations.
              If at the meeting in Brussels on December 14-15 the leaders of the EU countries approve the agreement, then negotiations on further UK trade agreements with the EU and conditions for a transition period may begin in the next few weeks. The UK exit from the EU is scheduled for March 2019. The trade agreement can be signed only after the UK leaves the bloc.
              The pound also gets support from positive macro statistics on the UK, coming in recently.
              According to official data released on Friday, manufacturing production in October increased by 0.1% compared to September, and by 3.9% compared to October last year.
              Industrial production in the UK for the first time in history grew in October for the sixth consecutive month.
              Contrary to the gloomy forecasts of economists, the UK economy did not collapse after the referendum on Brexit, and British producers are supported by weakening the pound and strong external demand. The manufacturing sector accounts for about one-fifth of the country's economy, mainly based on services and the domestic market. In general, industrial production in the UK in October compared with October last year increased by 3.6%, which is slightly higher than the forecast.
              *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

              Support levels: 1.3410, 1.3365, 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3175, 1.3100, 1.3075
              Resistance levels: 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050

              Trading Scenarios

              Sell Stop 1.3440. Stop-Loss 1.3520. Take-Profit 1.3410, 1.3365, 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3175, 1.3100, 1.3075
              Buy Stop 1.3520. Stop-Loss 1.3440. Take-Profit 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050




              *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

              Comment


              • S&P500: major indices retain positive dynamics
                11/12/2017
                Current dynamics

                Major US stock indices on Monday remain positive dynamics, stably bargaining on eve of the Fed meeting scheduled for December 12-13. On Friday, US indices rose and recorded growth in the past week against the background of the restoration of shares of technology companies and more favorable than expected, the report on the US labor market. As you know, the report of the US Department of Labor pointed to an increase of 228,000 new jobs (with a forecast of +200,000). Unemployment remained at the same level of 4.1%. The picture was somewhat spoiled by the index of the average hourly earnings, which in November was less than the forecast and amounted to 0.2% (the forecast was 0.3%).
                This week, important decisions of three other leading central banks in the world and fresh data on inflation are expected. On December 14, sessions of the NBS, the Bank of England and the ECB are scheduled. As unforeseen decisions of central banks are not expected, the most interesting are the forecasts of inflation and economic development.
                It is widely expected that the Fed at its meeting will decide to raise the interest rate by 0.25% to 1.50% (publication of the decision on the rates is scheduled for 19:00 (GMT) on Wednesday). Investors, basically, have already considered this increase in prices, and their attention will be riveted to the report of the Fed with forecasts on inflation and economic growth, as well as the views of FOMC members regarding further plans for monetary policy.
                Probably, the Fed will adhere to current plans, according to which it intends to gradually raise rates three more times in 2018.
                Against the backdrop of positive, as investors expect, Fed reports, US stock indexes will continue to grow, despite overbought. If, however, the Fed report or the views of FOMC members contain fears about the future of economic development in the US or accelerate the growth of inflation, the stock indexes may short-term, but sharply decline.
                Investors will carefully study the text of the report in order to understand the prospects of the course of the current policy of the Federal Reserve System. Volatility during the publication of the report can significantly increase.
                *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

                Support levels: 2634.0, 2600.0, 2582.0, 2565.0, 2500.0, 2466.0, 2444.0, 2415.0
                Resistance levels: 2663.0, 2700.0

                Trading Scenarios

                Sell Stop 2637.0. Stop-Loss 2660.0. Objectives 2634.0, 2600.0, 2582.0, 2565.0, 2500.0, 2466.0
                Buy Stop 2660.0 Stop-Loss 2637.0. Objectives 2663.0, 2685.0, 2700.0



                *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                Comment


                • GBP/USD: inflation in the UK remains high
                  12/12/2017
                  Current dynamics

                  Presented at the beginning of today's European session, data on consumer inflation in the UK caused a surge in volatility in the dynamics of the pound. The consumer price index (CPI) of Great Britain in November grew by 3.1% (in annual terms), exceeding the forecast by 0.1% and the target inflation rate by 1%.
                  Consumer prices in the UK in November grew at the fastest pace in the past six years, and signs of a weakening of price pressure are not observed.
                  Accelerating inflation increases the pressure on household budgets, which has a negative impact on consumer spending and the economy as a whole, focused mainly on the domestic market.
                  A significant share of the UK's GDP is made up of consumer spending. Due to the sharp drop in the pound after the referendum on Brexit, both imported consumer goods and raw materials imported to the UK rose in price. This, in turn, increased the producers' selling prices, and as a result, accelerated the growth of prices for consumer goods.
                  In November, the Bank of England raised its key interest rate for the first time in ten years, intending to slow inflation to a target level of 2%. As stated in the Bank of England, during the next three years the rate can be increased 2 more times, by 0.25% each time.
                  However, the data published today indicate that high inflation rates may remain in the UK longer than economists had expected.
                  It is possible that the leaders of the Bank of England will again soon have to think about another increase in the interest rate in order to bring down the growing inflation.
                  On Thursday, there will be the next meeting of the Bank of England. It is widely expected that the rate will be maintained at the current level of 0.5%. Investors will be interested in the report on monetary policy with the results of voting on the rate and other issues, as well as comments on the state of the economy and the minutes of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), with the votes cast for and against the increase / decrease in the interest rate. The main risks for the UK after Brexit are associated with expectations of a slowdown in the country's economic growth, as well as a large current account deficit in the UK's balance of payments.
                  The determining factor in the dynamics of the pound is still the situation around Brexit. Now "galloping" inflation is added to this list. Thus, the intrigue about the further actions of the Bank of England remains.
                  *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

                  Support levels: 1.3310, 1.3280, 1.3210, 1.3080
                  Resistance levels: 1.3395, 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050

                  Trading Scenarios

                  Sell Stop 1.3290. Stop-Loss 1.3410. Take-Profit 1.3280, 1.3210, 1.3100, 1.3080
                  Buy Stop 1.3410. Stop-Loss 1.3290. Take-Profit 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050



                  *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                  Comment


                  • DJIA: on the eve of the Fed decision on rates
                    13/12/2017
                    Current dynamics

                    In the run-up to the publication of the Fed's decision on the rate, there is a low activity of traders.
                    Trading volumes are also small. Investors take into account in the prices of 100% the probability of a rate increase today at 0.25% to 1.5%.
                    Meanwhile, the dollar keeps positive dynamics. The index of the dollar WSJ on Tuesday rose to a maximum level for the last 3 weeks, near the mark of 87.25. This was the longest period of its continuous growth (for seven consecutive sessions) since November 2016.
                    The main US stock indexes also traded with a rise, continuing to develop an upward trend. Dow Jones Industrial Average on Tuesday rose by 0.5%, to 24535 points, the S & P500 increased by 0.2%, to 2664 points. Both indexes closed above previous record highs, gaining support from shares of telecommunications and financial companies.
                    The dollar and stock indices also received support from Tuesday's strong US macro data. As reported by the US Department of Labor, producer prices compared to the same period of the previous year increased by 3.1%, which was the most significant growth in almost six years. It is expected that the November CPI, which will be released on Wednesday (13:30 GMT), will also show growth (by 0.4% compared to the previous month).
                    Nevertheless, the main focus of investors will be focused on the Fed's report published at 19:00 (GMT) with an assessment of the current economic situation, as well as with the views of members of the FOMC regarding the prospects for further tightening of monetary policy.
                    Previously, the leadership of the Federal Reserve planned three increases in the key rate for 2018. In addition, the Fed expects that the rate of annual inflation in the US by the end of 2019 will reach 2%. Nevertheless, if the Fed will expect to maintain low price pressure in the US economy, then the number of key rate increases planned for next year can be reduced to two.
                    According to the CME Group, investors estimate the likelihood of an increase in the key rate to a range of 1.75% -2% by November next year at 38%. This will require 2 rate hikes by a quarter of a percentage point next year. Many economists expect three increases in the key rate in 2018 and two increases in 2019.
                    If inflation data is expected to be weak and Fed officials again lower their forecasts for 2018, then the probability of three rate increases in 2018 will decrease, and this will negatively affect the dollar.
                    If, however, the Fed report or the views of FOMC members contain fears about the future of economic development in the US or accelerate the growth of inflation, the stock indexes may short-term, but sharply decline. A little later (19:30 GMT) the head of the Fed, Janet Yellen will speak. It is expected that volatility during the publication of the report and the speech of Janet Yellen can significantly increase.
                    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

                    Support levels: 24265.0, 23780.0, 23340.0, 23250.0, 22450.0, 22100.0
                    Resistance levels: 24535.0, 24700.0

                    Trading Scenarios

                    Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 24400.0. Take-Profit 24700.0
                    Sell Stop 24400.0. Stop-Loss 24600.0. Take-Profit 24265.0, 23780.0, 23340.0, 23250.0, 22450.0, 22100.0



                    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                    Comment


                    • USD/CHF: the dollar is recovering after a large decline
                      14/12/2017
                      Current dynamics

                      In the focus of attention of traders yesterday was the meeting and the decision of the Fed on the rate, which was published at 19:00 (GMT). As it was already known, the rate was raised by a quarter of a percentage point, to the range of 1.25% -1.50%, for the third time in 2017. The Fed kept the forecast, according to which it is planned to raise rates three times in the next year.
                      Nevertheless, despite the improved estimates of economic growth and the potential economic incentives expected from the upcoming tax reform in the US, as well as the clearly stated position of the Fed on further tightening of monetary policy, the dollar has declined.
                      Today, during the Asian session, the dollar's decline continued. Today, market participants will focus on meetings of the two largest world central banks - the Bank of England and the ECB. Decisions on rates in the UK and the Eurozone will be published at 12:00, 12:45 (GMT), respectively.
                      At 13:30, the ECB press conference will begin. In his speech, the head of the ECB Mario Draghi will give explanations regarding the decision taken, and also, probably, answer questions about the QE program in the Eurozone. Most likely, Mario Drago confirms the propensity to continue the extra soft monetary policy of the ECB, which will negatively affect the euro.
                      Meanwhile, at 08:30 (GMT) the decision of the Swiss National Bank on interest rates was published.
                      As expected, the Swiss National Bank left the deposit rate at the level of -0.75% and left without changing the range for the 3-month LIBOR rate, between -1.25% and -0.25%. According to the NBS, the overvaluation of the franc "continues to decrease", but "the Swiss National Bank continues to consider the necessary negative interest rate and is ready to interference in the foreign exchange market, if the situation requires it".
                      The Swiss franc has reacted with a decrease in the NBS decision, including against the dollar, which at the beginning of the European session is attempting to recover after yesterday's decline.
                      Of the news for today, also waiting for macro data on the US (preliminary values for December), the publication of which is scheduled for 14:45 (GMT). PMIs will be published in the most important sectors of the US economy (in the services sector and in the manufacturing sector). The growth of indicators is expected, which should support the dollar.
                      If the PMI indices come out with values worse than the forecast, then the dollar's decline will resume.
                      *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

                      Support levels: 0.9875, 0.9810, 0.9775, 0.9730, 0.9700, 0.9650, 0.9635, 0.9600, 0.9545, 0.9500, 0.9445
                      Resistance levels: 0.9890, 0.9900, 0.9973, 1.0000

                      Trading Scenarios

                      Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 0.9865. Take-Profit 0.9900, 0.9973, 1.0000
                      Sell Stop 0.9865. Stop-Loss 0.9910. Take-Profit 0.9810, 0.9775, 0.9730, 0.9700, 0.9650, 0.9635, 0.9600, 0.9545, 0.9500



                      *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                      Comment


                      • GBP/USD: pound is vulnerable against the background of negotiations on Brexit
                        15/12/2017
                        Current dynamics

                        Against the backdrop of the newly emerging uncertainty around Brexit, the pound is declining during today's European session. Today, on the second day of the EU summit, its leaders ordered the UK to outline the prospects and goals of signing an agreement on mutual trade in the coming weeks.
                        It is expected that on Friday it will be decided to move on to the next stage of negotiations on Brexit. But so far there is no clear position on the part of the UK on this issue.
                        There is no consensus in the UK government about further relations with the EU and an understanding of what concessions Brexit's supporters are willing to take to maintain close trade ties with the EU. The British Prime Minister has so far vainly tried to smooth the differences in the government about Brexit.
                        All this negatively affects the quotations of the pound, which is falling against the dollar, even against the background of the fact that the dollar continues to trade lower against other major currencies.
                        The Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday, but the dollar fell, as this decision was widely expected, and leaders of Fed were cautious about the central bank's statement. The Fed raised its forecasts for US GDP growth, but did not change its inflation forecasts. "It may take more time to reach a target inflation rate of 2%", Fed Chairman Janet Yellen said at a news conference after the central bank meeting.
                        The Bank of England, as well as the Swiss National Bank and the ECB, left its monetary policy unchanged on Thursday, despite the high inflation in the UK, triggered by the fall of the pound after the referendum on Brexit held last summer.
                        Today, on the last trading day of the week, it is possible to fix profit in short positions on the dollar, which can cause its growth in the foreign exchange market.
                        Triggers may be the publication at 14:15 (GMT) of data on the level of industrial production and the use of production capacity in the US for November. If the data prove to be strong, then the dollar will strengthen.
                        Also worth paying attention to the speech at 13:15 (GMT) of the representative of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, the executive director of monetary and credit analysis and statistics, Andrew Haldane.
                        *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

                        Support levels: 1.3395, 1.3325, 1.3280, 1.3210, 1.3080
                        Resistance levels: 1.3470, 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050

                        Trading Scenarios

                        Sell Stop 1.3390. Stop-Loss 1.3480. Take-Profit 1.3325, 1.3280, 1.3210, 1.3080
                        Buy Stop 1.3480. Stop-Loss 1.3390. Take-Profit 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050



                        *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                        Comment


                        • AUD/USD: on the eve of the publication of the minutes from the RBA meeting
                          18/12/2017
                          Current dynamics

                          After the RBA kept the interest rate at the current level of 1.5% at the beginning of the month, the Australian dollar strengthened its decline. In the accompanying statement of the RBA it was stated that "interest rates correspond to the goals in relation to GDP, inflation. Low rates support the Australian economy, and a higher rate of the Australian dollar will slow the economic recovery".
                          RBA Governor Philip Lowe reiterated that, in the opinion of the board, "it is advisable to leave monetary policy unchanged at this meeting in order to maintain a stable growth of the economy and achieve a target inflation rate over time". The AUD / USD reached its June lows near the 0.7500 mark.
                          Nevertheless, the AUD / USD subsequently increased, and the past week was one of the best in terms of growth since July, mainly due to the weakening of the US dollar.
                          The Australian dollar also received support from positive data from the Australian labor market, published on Thursday. According to the data, the unemployment rate in Australia in November was 5.4%, while the number of jobs increased by 61600 after rising by 7800 in October (the forecast was +18000 new jobs).
                          Tomorrow (00:30 GMT) the minutes of the December meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia will be published. The minutes are published two weeks after the decision on the interest rate. It will present a report on the current state of the Australian economy with details of the decision on the rates. If the RBA shows a "hawkish" attitude toward the inflation forecast in the economy, the markets view this as a higher probability of a rate hike, which is a positive factor for the AUD. The soft tone of the protocol and the propensity to continue carrying out a soft monetary policy will help to weaken the Australian currency.
                          At the same time, the Fed implemented a third increase in short-term interest rates in December and signaled that next year it will follow a similar course and intends to implement three rate increases of 0.25% each time.
                          Thus, a different focus of monetary policy in Australia and the US will further reduce AUD / USD in the medium term.
                          *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

                          Support levels: 0.7640, 0.7630, 0.7600, 0.7545, 0.7500, 0.7460
                          Resistance levels: 0.7655, 0.7670, 0.7690, 0.7705, 0.7740, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7950

                          Trading Scenarios

                          Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7675. Take-Profit 0.7630, 0.7600, 0.7545, 0.7500, 0.7460
                          Buy Stop 0.7675. Stop-Loss 0.7620. Take-Profit 0.7690, 0.7705, 0.7740, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7950



                          *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                          Comment


                          • NZD/USD: New Zealand business confidence index remains in negative territory
                            19/12/2017
                            Current dynamics

                            As it was reported today during the Asian session by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the confidence index in the business circles of New Zealand in December is still deep in the negative territory and amounts to -37.8% (in November the value of the index was -39.3%). The index of business confidence assesses the business climate in New Zealand and allows you to analyze the economic situation in the short term. The decrease in the value of the indicator indicates a decrease in business confidence and a decrease in business investment, which negatively affects the production and other areas of the economy of New Zealand.
                            The mood of producers in the agricultural sector, the leading industry in New Zealand's economy, is still deteriorating, reflecting a negative reaction to the new government. The achievements of recent years in the growth of the country's economy belong to the former leadership of the country. The general elections that took place at the end of September in New Zealand led to the defeat of the ruling at the time conservative party.
                            The consumer mood in New Zealand is also deteriorating. This is evidenced by the decline in the consumer sentiment indicator in New Zealand, published today at the beginning of the Asian trading session (107.4 in the fourth quarter against 112.4 in the previous quarter).
                            According to many economists, the RBNZ can return to consideration of the possibility of raising the rate in New Zealand not earlier than the second half of 2018.
                            On the other hand, the US dollar currently looks more promising for investment than the New Zealand dollar against the backdrop of expectations of a phased increase in the Fed's rate and accelerating the growth of the US economy. The Fed plans to raise the rate 3 times in 2018. Thus, the fundamental factors testify to the reduction of the NZD / USD.
                            From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of the results of the dairy auction (in the period after 14:00 GMT). Two weeks ago, the dairy price index, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out at + 0.4% (against previous values of -3.4%, -3.5%, -1.0%, -2.4%) . Dairy products - one of the main exports goods of New Zealand, so the reduction in world prices for dairy products harms the quotes of the New Zealand dollar.
                            *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

                            Support levels: 0.7000, 0.6980, 0.6935, 0.6863, 0.6800
                            Resistance levels: 0.7030, 0.7070, 0.7110, 0.7200, 0.7240, 0.7270


                            Trading scenarios

                            Sell Stop 0.6990. Stop-Loss 0.7040. Take-Profit 0.6980, 0.6935, 0.6863, 0.6800
                            Buy Stop 0.7040. Stop-Loss 0.6990. Take-Profit 0.7070, 0.7110, 0.7200, 0.7240, 0.7270



                            *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                            Comment


                            • S&P500: US Senate approves tax reduction bill
                              20/12/2017
                              Current dynamics

                              As it became known at the beginning of today's European session, the US Senate approved a reduction of taxes for 1.5 trillion dollars within the tax reform by 51 votes "in favor" and 48 "against".
                              On Tuesday, a package of laws providing for the most significant reform of the tax system since 1986 was passed by the House of Representatives with 227 votes "in favor" and 203 "against". All the Democrats present at the meeting, which was predictable, and 12 Republicans voted "against".
                              The reform implies a reduction in corporate taxes from 35% to 21% (previously 20% was assumed). This will increase the profits of companies, as well as increase the wages of hired workers at an accelerated rate. This, in turn, should stimulate the growth of inflation, which will contribute to more active actions of the Fed with regard to further tightening of monetary policy in the US. Most taxes will be reduced from January, and by February many workers will teach higher salaries.
                              The new tax law will accelerate the growth of the US economy. The dollar has not reacted to this information in any way. However, the main US stock indices, in general, positively took the news about the adoption of the law in the Senate and continue to grow during the European trading session.
                              Today is weak for the publication of important macro statistics. All movement around the dollar and the US stock markets will occur against the backdrop of information on the results of the promotion of tax reform in the US Senate. Conservatives said they are still deciding whether to support the bill on short-term expenses. As expected, the House of Representatives will vote on the bill on expenditures on Thursday.
                              Despite the doubts of some economists regarding the positive impact of this law on the growth of the US economy, nevertheless, its adoption can be considered a major victory for US President Donald Trump.
                              Most likely, in full measure the market reaction to this fact can be seen as early as next year. On the eve of the Catholic Christmas and the New Year celebration, the activity of traders and trading volumes are declining.
                              *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

                              Support and resistance levels
                              The S & P500 index remains positive dynamics, trading in the upward channels on the daily and weekly charts since February 2016. On Monday, the S & P500 index updated its absolute high near the 2693.0 mark and today, after yesterday's declining, it again traded with a rise.
                              The upper limit of the ascending channel on the weekly chart runs near the 2710.0 mark, which will become the nearest goal in case of continued growth.
                              Since May 2016, technical indicators (OsMA and Stochastic) are on the buyers’ side, and signals for the reversal of the long-term upward trend are not yet visible.
                              A downward correction is possible only in the short term with targets at support levels of 2648.0 (local lows), 2627.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 2610.0 (bottom line of the upward channel on the daily chart).
                              The signal to the beginning of the downward correction may be a breakdown of the short-term support level of 2669.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
                              While the S & P500 is trading above the key support level of 2490.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart, the bottom line of the upward channel on the weekly chart, the Fibonacci level 23.6% of correction to the growth since February 2016), long-term upward dynamics persist.
                              In case of breakdown of the local resistance level of 2693.0 (December and year highs), the index's growth will continue.
                              Support levels: 2669.0, 2648.0, 2627.0, 2610.0, 2580.0, 2500.0, 2490.0
                              Resistance levels: 2693.0, 2700.0, 2710.0

                              Trading Scenarios

                              Sell Stop 2677.0. Stop-Loss 2694.0. Objectives 2669.0, 2648.0, 2627.0, 2610.0, 2580.0, 2500.0, 2490.0
                              Buy Stop 2694.0 Stop-Loss 2677.0. Objectives 2700.0, 2710.0




                              *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                              Comment


                              • GBP/USD: pound remains vulnerable against the background of Brexit
                                21/12/2017
                                Current dynamics

                                The resignation of Deputy Prime Minister Teresa Mei Damian Green, as it became known on Wednesday, caused a decline in the pound. Damian Greene was Teresa May's companion, and his departure changes the balance of power in the Cabinet. Now this is just as bad for the conservatives, as the UK conducts the most important negotiations about Brexit. The British government still has no common opinion on further actions and future relations with the EU. The Prime Minister of Great Britain is trying to smooth the differences in the government over Brexit, but, at the same time, is looking for ways to maintain close trade ties with the EU.
                                According to official data released on Thursday, in November of this year, compared with November last year, the net borrowing of the UK public sector decreased and reached a minimum in ten years (8.7 billion pounds, 0.2 billion pounds less than in November last year) . The National Bureau of Statistics of Great Britain noted that in the last months of the financial year, which ends in March 2018, tax revenues are expected to slow down.
                                Philip Hammond, the UK finance minister, announced more gloomy forecasts for the economy in November, and on Wednesday the IMF published a forecast that UK GDP growth in 2018 will slow down to about 1.5% amid the declining consumer and company costs due to Brexit.
                                Meanwhile, in the financial markets, there has been a slowdown in trading activity and a decline in trading volumes ahead of the Catholic Christmas and the celebration of the New Year.
                                From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of important macro data from the United States. At 13:30 (GMT), the US Department of Labor will publish a report on the number of new applications for unemployment benefits. This indicator determines the state of the labor market. The growth is expected to reach 231,000 (against 225,000 last week). The result above the expected indicates a weak labor market, which will negatively affect the US dollar.
                                Also at this time annual data on US GDP for the 3 quarter (updated values) and the price index (for 3 quarter), which is an indicator of inflation, will be published. Data on GDP are among the key, along with data on the labor market and inflation, for the Fed in determining its further monetary policy. A high result strengthens the USD. Forecast: GDP for the 3rd quarter increased by 3.3%. If the data prove to be better, the dollar will be strengthened.
                                *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

                                Support levels: 1.3330, 1.3300, 1.3280, 1.3210, 1.3100
                                Resistance levels: 1.3395, 1.3470, 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050

                                Trading Scenarios

                                Sell Stop 1.3340. Stop-Loss 1.3410. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3280, 1.3210, 1.3100
                                Buy Stop 1.3410. Stop-Loss 1.3340. Take-Profit 1.3470, 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050



                                *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                                Comment

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