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  • XAU/USD: Current Dynamics
    05/20/2019

    At the beginning of the European session, the XAU / USD pair attempts to break through the strong and key support level of 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% of the correction to the wave of decline since July 2016 and ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
    In case of a successful breakdown of this level, the targets for further decline will be the support levels of 1248.00 (Fibonacci 50%), 1197.00 (November lows), 1185.00 (Fibonacci 23.6%), 1160.00 (2018 lows), which will mean the return of gold prices in a bearish trend.
    An alternative scenario involves the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1287.00, above which the upward trend will resume. The XAU / USD growth targets are resistance levels of 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00 (highs of February and 2019).
    On Monday, market participants will closely monitor the performance of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, which will begin at 23:00 (GMT). If he signals about the likelihood of a soon decrease in the interest rate, then the dollar may sharply decline, and the price of gold will rise.
    Some Fed leaders are concerned about weak inflation. According to them, it is possible that the central bank will have to take measures to speed up inflation, and that they will be ready to lower interest rates. Although Jerome Powell believes that low inflation in the United States is a “temporary phenomenon”.
    In the current situation, market participants prefer the dollar. The American economy as a whole is in a better condition than the economies of other countries amid the escalation of the trade conflict between the United States and China.
    Support Levels: 1277.00, 1268.00, 1248.00
    Resistance Levels: 1287.00, 1296.00, 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00

    Trading recommendations

    Sell ​​Stop 1272.00. Stop Loss 1282.00. Take-Profit 1268.00, 1248.00, 1234.00, 1220.00, 1197.00, 1185.00, 1160.00
    Buy Stop 1282.00. Stop Loss 1272.00. Take-Profit 1287.00, 1296.00, 1303.00, 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

    Comment


    • AUD/USD: Trading Scenarios
      05/21/2019

      Rising unemployment and low inflation increase the pressure on the RBA to lower interest rates. "During the meeting on June 4, interest rate cuts will be discussed", RBA manager Philip Lowe said on Tuesday. According to him, "new stimulating measures could help accelerate economic growth".
      In the minutes from the May meeting of the RBA published today, it is stated that "the lack of improvement in the labor market situation is an argument in favor of lowering interest rates". “Without easing monetary policy in the next six months, we should expect lowering forecasts for GDP growth and inflation”, the RBA leaders concluded.
      International trade conflicts, primarily between the United States and China, also pose a risk to the Australian economy. Investors estimate the likelihood of the June decline in RBA rates in more than 50% and 100% in August.
      Against this negative background, the decline in AUD / USD continues. Below the key resistance levels of 0.7120 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.7170 (EMA200 on the daily chart) short positions remain preferable.
      AUD / USD remains in a long-term bearish trend. The lows of the global wave of decline, which began in July 2014 from 0.9500, are located near the mark of 0.6830. AUD / USD may reach this level in the coming days.
      The objectives of the upward correction are located at the resistance levels of 0.7015 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.7100, 0.7120.
      However, for now, only short positions should be considered.
      Support Levels: 0.6830, 0.6800
      Resistance Levels: 0.6932, 0.6980, 0.7015, 0.7100, 0.7120

      Trading Scenarios

      Sell ​​in the market. Stop Loss 0.6910. Take-Profit 0.6830, 0.6800
      Buy Stop 0.6910. Stop Loss 0.6870. Take-Profit 0.6932, 0.6980, 0.7015, 0.7100, 0.7120



      *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

      Comment


      • USD/CAD: before the publication of the FOMC minutes
        05/22/2019
        Current Dynamics

        Speaking on Tuesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell expressed concern about the growth of US company debt. However, he did not say anything about the Fed’s monetary policy outlook, but noted that “GDP growth rates are stable, US employment rates are quite high, while wages are rising against the backdrop of restrained inflation”.
        Inflation remains the focus of Fed officials.
        The central bank set a target inflation rate of 2% in 2012, and never once ensured its sustainability. Moreover, this year inflation has weakened, even against the background of strengthening economy and employment growth. The inflationary expectations of market participants and the population have also weakened, and this increases the likelihood that real inflation will not grow as the Fed leaders want.
        Most of them believe that this year the rates will not be changed, and those who thought they would be raised refused this opinion. Financial markets are expecting lower rates by the end of this year.
        On Wednesday, market participants will carefully study the minutes from the May Fed meeting in order to understand the intentions of the central bank management regarding monetary policy. The publication of the Fed's minutes is scheduled for 18:00 (GMT). Volatility at this time may sharply increase in the financial markets if the protocols contain unexpected statements by the Fed leaders. The harsh rhetoric of their statements regarding monetary policy will cause a strengthening of the USD. Conversely, a penchant for soft politics will cause a weakening of the American dollar.
        Lowering the interest rate of the Fed is a strong fundamental factor that will have a negative impact on the USD quotes.
        Nevertheless, the demand for the dollar is likely to continue in the context of the escalating US trade conflict with China and amid a slowdown in the European economy, as well as expectations of the results of parliamentary elections (May 23-26) in Europe. At the same time, the RB of Australia and the RB of New Zealand directly declare monetary policy easing.
        The dollar in the current situation looks preferable to other currencies due to the greater stability of the American economy.
        *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

        Technical Analysis
        The increase in volatility in the USD / CAD is expected at 12:30 (GMT) in connection with the publication of data on retail sales in Canada. In March, the level of retail sales is expected to increase by 1.0% in the country (after rising + 0.8% in the previous month). This is a positive factor that will support CAD when confirming the forecast.
        After the USD / CAD updated its 3-month high near the 1.3520 mark at the end of last month, this currency pair is being adjusted, falling on Wednesday for the 4th consecutive day.
        At the beginning of the European session, USD / CAD is trading near 1.3390, below the important support level of 1.3400 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
        The OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 1-hour, 4-hour and daily charts turned to the short positions.
        Nevertheless, USD / CAD maintains a long-term positive trend, trading above key support levels of 1.3310 (EMA144), 1.3265 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
        The breakdown of resistance levels 1.3400, 1.3419 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart) will be a signal for the resumption of long positions.
        After the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.3520 (2019 highs), the USD / CAD will head towards the resistance levels of 1.3660 (2018 highs), 1.3790 (2017 highs).
        Support Levels: 1.3376, 1.3335, 1.3310, 1.3265
        Resistance Levels: 1.3400, 1.3419, 1.3440, 1.3452, 1.3480, 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790

        Trading Scenarios

        Sell ​​Stop 1.3370. Stop Loss 1.3435. Take-Profit 1.3335, 1.3310, 1.3265
        Buy Stop 1.3435. Stop Loss 1.3370. Take-Profit 1.3452, 1.3480, 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790



        *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

        Comment


        • NZD/USD: Current Dynamics
          05/23/2019

          NZD / USD is developing a downward dynamic, actively declining over the past two months. In May, the NZD / USD pair received an additional negative impulse after the RBNZ meeting and after the publication on Wednesday of the minutes of the May Fed meeting.
          As is known, at the beginning of the month, the RBNZ reduced the interest rate by 0.25% to 1.5%. In a related statement, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr pointed out that "there is uncertainty about the prospects for the global economy and concerns about trade remain". According to him, “inflationary pressure will grow only slowly”. The forecast for the rate of RBNZ also lowered to 1.4%. Many economists believe that another reduction in the rate of the RBNZ may occur already this year.
          At the same time, the Fed leaders are still refraining from changes in monetary policy. This became clear from the minutes from the May Fed meeting, published on Wednesday. "Many participants in the meeting made it clear that their fears from the beginning of the year, to some extent, weakened", the protocols said.
          Thus, amid the difference in monetary policy between the Fed and the RBNZ, as well as the trade conflict between the United States and China, a further reduction in NZD / USD with the immediate goal located at the support level of 0.6830 is likely. The farther target of the decline is at the support level of 0.6260 (Fibonacci level of 0% and the lows of the global wave of the pair's decline from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014).
          The signal for the development of an alternative scenario will be the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 0.6636 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), which may cause an increase to the resistance level of 0.6710 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
          Further growth is unlikely. Predominantly strong negative impulse. Below the key resistance level of 0.6755 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), short positions are preferable.
          Support Levels: 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6230
          Resistance Levels: 0.6500, 0.6535, 0.6580, 0.6623, 0.6710, 0.6755, 0.6800, 0.6855, 0.6940

          Trading Recommendations

          Sell ​​Stop 0.6620. Stop Loss 0.6670. Take-Profit 0.6600, 0.6575, 0.6510, 0.6430
          Buy Stop 0.6670. Stop Loss 0.6620. Take-Profit 0.6700, 0.6745, 0.6780, 0.6800, 0.6935, 0.6980, 0.7060


          *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

          Comment


          • WTI Oil: Current Dynamics
            24/05/2019

            On Friday, the price of oil is rising, adjusting after falling the previous day. The aggravation of the trade conflict between China and the United States, as well as the growth of oil reserves in the United States provoked a sharp drop in oil prices.
            Futures for WTI oil on the NYMEX closed on Thursday with a decrease of 5.7%, at $ 57.91 per barrel, the lowest level since March 12. It was the sharpest drop since December 24th.
            The United States has added the Chinese corporation Huawei to a “black list”, imposing significant trade restrictions on the company.
            At the same time, on Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration of the United States Department of Energy presented regular weekly data on oil reserves, which rose last week by 4.7 million barrels to 477 million barrels, the highest since July 2017. Also increased reserves of gasoline and distillates.
            WTI crude oil traded at the beginning of the European session at 58.42, by $ 0.35 above the opening price of today.
            At 17:00 (GMT), the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes will publish its weekly report on the number of active drilling rigs in the United States. If the report indicates an increase in the number of such installations (currently it is 802 units), this may give an additional negative impetus to prices.
            *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

            The price of WTI crude oil is trading on Friday below key support levels of 59.90 (EMA200 and EMA144 on the daily chart), 59.50 (Fibonacci 50% level of the upward correction to a fall from the highs of the last few years near the mark of 76.80 to the level of support near 42.14), slightly higher support level 56.85 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
            Growth in the zone above the levels of 56.85, 59.50, 59.90 will cause the resumption of the bullish trend.
            The breakdown of the support level of 56.85 will open the way to the support level of 55.40 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%). Breakdown of this support level will revive the bearish trend.
            Support Levels: 57.00, 56.85, 55.40
            Resistance Levels: 59.50, 59.90, 61.10, 61.50, 61.85, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

            Trading Recommendations

            Sell ​​Stop 57.80. Stop Loss 58.80. Take-Profit 57.00, 56.85, 55.40
            Buy Stop 58.80. Stop Loss 57.80. Take-Profit 59.50, 59.90, 61.10, 61.50, 61.85, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50


            *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
            Last edited by TifiaFX; 05-24-2019, 10:59 AM.

            Comment


            • EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
              06/24/2019

              The dollar continued to decline in the first half of the trading day on Monday. At the beginning of the US session, the DXY dollar index futures, reflecting the value of the dollar to a basket of 6 major currencies, is trading near the 95.62 mark, 10 points lower than the closing price last Friday. The weekly drop in the index was the strongest since February 2018. The main driver of the dollar decline in the current situation is the expectation of a Fed rate cut soon.
              Against the background of a falling dollar, the EUR / USD pair is rising after the pair reached a 3-month high on Friday near the 1.1377 mark. At the beginning of the American session, EUR / USD is trading near the 1.1390 ​​mark after the publication (08:00 GMT) of the IFO indices for Germany, which showed that the European economy is still far away from the recovery.
              EUR / USD broke through on Friday the key resistance level of 1.1355 and continues to grow towards the 1.1400 mark. The long-term goal of growth is the resistance level of 1.1600 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
              However, near the level of 1.1400 possible rebound.
              In the case of a return to the zone below the level of 1.1355, short positions will again become relevant.
              The breakdown of support levels of 1.1305 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014) will confirm the return of EUR / USD to the global bearish trend.
              Support Levels: 1.1355, 1.1305, 1.1285, 1.1243, 1.1180, 1.1125
              Resistance Levels: 1.1400, 1.1510, 1.1600

              Trading recommendations

              Sell ​​Stop 1.1340. Stop-Loss 1.1415. Take-Profit 1.1305, 1.1285, 1.1243, 1.1180, 1.1125
              Buy Stop 1.1415. Stop-Loss 1.1340. Take-Profit 1.1510, 1.1600



              *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

              Comment


              • WTI: Current Dynamics
                06/27/2019

                The oil market has a very controversial situation. The growth of geopolitical tensions associated with the situation in the Gulf of Oman, and the threat of interruptions in the supply of oil from this region are pushing prices up. The two-week rally, which began in the middle of the month from a level near the mark of 50.50 dollars per barrel of WTI oil, is happening against this background. On Wednesday, the US Department of Energy published regular weekly data indicating a significant decline in oil reserves in the country (-12.788 million barrels to 470 million barrels). This gave additional upward momentum to oil prices, which allowed them to grow to key levels of 59.50 (Fibonacci 50% of the upward correction to the fall from the highs of the past few years near 76.80 to support near 42.15), 59.00 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
                At the same time, further growth is constrained by the risks of a slowdown in the global economy and oil consumption.
                As expected, at the G20 summit this weekend will meet US President Trump and DPRK President Xi Jinping. Many experts believe that they will not be able to make progress in the negotiations to achieve a trade truce. Negative news from the G20 summit and
                concerns about global economic growth may lead to a resumption of lower prices.
                On Thursday, WTI crude oil traded near resistance levels of 59.50, 59.00. Below these levels short positions will become relevant again. Only a breakthrough to the zone above the local resistance level of 60.90 will confirm the revival of the bullish trend, and the price will head towards the annual highs near the 66.00 dollars mark. Long-term goals of decline are located at the support level of 42.15 (Fibonacci level of 0% and minimums of December 2018).
                Support levels: 56.80, 55.40, 54.10, 53.25, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
                Resistance Levels: 59.00, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

                Trading Recommendations

                Sell ​​Stop 57.50. Stop Loss 60.10. Take-Profit 56.80, 55.40, 54.10, 53.25, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
                Buy Stop 60.10. Stop Loss 57.50. Take-Profit 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50


                *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                Comment


                • EUR/USD: pending new drivers
                  28/06/2019

                  Eurodollar rose at the beginning of the European session on Friday. According to the data presented, consumer price indices (CPI) in Italy and France rose in June and were better than forecast. The core consumer price index published at 09:00 (GMT) also showed an increase in consumer inflation in the Eurozone (+1.1% in annual terms, against the forecast of +1.0% and against +0.8% in May).
                  After the publication of data, EUR / USD rose by 30 points, to the level of 1.1392. The CPI is a key indicator of inflation and an indicator of changes in consumer trends. The high value, as well as the growth of the rate is a positive factor for EUR.
                  However, EUR / USD was not able to develop an upward trend above 1.1392. Inflation in the Eurozone is still at extremely low levels, well below the target level of the ECB, set at just below 2.0%. Eurozone's core consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.2% in June compared with the same period last year, after a 1.2% increase in May. This is a negative factor for the euro. It is possible that the ECB, at a meeting on July 25, will take additional measures to stimulate the economy.
                  On Friday, investor attention will be focused on the G-20 leaders meeting in Osaka. Investors are waiting for a shift in the trade confrontation between the United States and China towards a new trade agreement. Probably, trading in financial markets in anticipation of the outcome of the meeting will be held in the range.
                  If the meeting of Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, which is scheduled for Saturday, ends in nothing, then most likely the global stock indexes will react with a fall, and the demand for defensive assets will rise again. Then the Fed will be forced yet to begin easing monetary policy, which will cause a further weakening of the dollar.
                  Meanwhile, EUR / USD spent the current week in the range between the local resistance level of 1.1410 and the support level of 1.1355 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
                  The signal for movement in one direction or another will be the breakdown of one of the range boundaries (levels 1.1410, 1.1355).
                  The reduction targets are located at support levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to a fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1275 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.1180 (June lows), 1.1125 (minimums of the year); growth targets - at the resistance level of 1.1600 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
                  Support Levels: 1.1355, 1.1285, 1.1275, 1.1180, 1.1125
                  Resistance Levels: 1.1410, 1.1510, 1.1600

                  Trading Recommendations

                  Sell ​​Stop 1.1340. Stop-Loss 1.1420. Take-Profit 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1260, 1.1180, 1.1125
                  Buy Stop 1.1420. Stop-Loss 1.1340. Take-Profit 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600



                  *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                  Comment


                  • AUD/USD: Current Dynamics
                    01/07/2019

                    As part of the G20 summit held in Osaka last Sunday, US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to suspend a trade war between these countries. The United States will indefinitely postpone the introduction of duties on Chinese goods worth about $ 300 billion, while China promised to start buying large amounts of agricultural products in the United States.
                    Investors are inspired by the outcome of the G20 summit in Osaka, which ended last weekend, and global stock indices once again rushed up.
                    The dollar also rose from the opening of today's trading day, and the AUD / USD pair has dropped sharply, despite the very successful start of the trading day.
                    According to Caixin, in June, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector in China fell to 49.4 from 50.2 in May. The indicator for the first time in four months was below the threshold of 50.0, separating the growth of activity from its decline.
                    The official PMI for the manufacturing sector of China, published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on Sunday, remained unchanged in June, reaching 49.4, which is also below the threshold of 50.0.
                    Negative macro statistics from China put pressure on New Zealand and Australian dollars.
                    On Tuesday, the RB of Australia will decide on the interest rate. Early last month, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its key interest rate by 25 bps. to 1.25%, for the first time since August 2016, and its head, Philip Lowe, said that "there is reason to expect a lower key rate".
                    As expected, on Tuesday, the RBA will again lower its interest rate by 0.25% to 1.00%. This is a strong negative fundamental factor for AUD.
                    Publication of the RBA decision on rates is scheduled for Tuesday (04:30 GMT), and at 09:30 GMT, the speech of the head of the RBA, Philip Lowe, will begin. A sharp increase in volatility is expected in the AUD / USD.
                    The different directions of the monetary policies of the RBA and the Fed is a strong fundamental factor for reducing AUD / USD.
                    The medium-term goal of the decline is located at around 0.6770 (2019 lows). Below the key resistance levels of 0.7060 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.7110 (EMA200 on the daily chart) short positions remain preferable.
                    Support Levels: 0.6969, 0.6957, 0.6910, 0.6865, 0.6830, 0.6800, 0.6770
                    Resistance Levels: 0.7000, 0.7060, 0.7110

                    Trading Recommendations

                    Sell ​​in the market. Stop Loss 0.7040. Take-Profit 0.6969, 0.6957, 0.6910, 0.6865, 0.6830, 0.6800, 0.6770
                    Buy Stop 0.7040. Stop Loss 0.6990. Take-Profit 0.7060, 0.7110



                    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                    Comment


                    • EUR/USD: on the eve of the NFP publication
                      05/07/2019

                      On Friday, the trades are "on the side" of the dollar, while investors are waiting for publication (at 12:30 GMT) of data from the US labor market. In June, unemployment is expected to remain at the level of 3.6%, while the number of jobs outside the US agricultural sector increased by 165,000, after +75,000 in May.
                      This is strong data that will support the dollar with the confirmation of the forecast and will force the Fed to wait a little with the rate decrease.
                      In the American economy, things are not so bad in comparison with other economies, and American consumers continue to actively spend money.
                      If the growth of new jobs again turns out to be less than 100,000, and unemployment rises, then the markets will take this as a signal to the Fed in the direction of lowering the rate, and by 50 basis points at once. In this case, the pressure on the dollar will resume with a new force.
                      Meanwhile, the Eurodollar has been declining since the opening of today's trading day. The EUR / USD pair is trading at the beginning of the European session, near the 1.1260 mark, 23 points lower than the opening price of today's trading day. Weak macro statistics, received at the beginning of the European session from Germany, had a negative impact on the euro. In May, orders in the manufacturing sector of Germany decreased by 2.2% compared with April, and compared with the same period of the previous year - even more, by 8.6%. The German economy is the locomotive of the entire European economy, and its slowdown will increase the pressure on the ECB towards the adoption of additional incentive measures in the coming months.
                      *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

                      EUR / USD broke through two strong support levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to a fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1277 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) and continues to decline. The breakthrough of the support level of 1.1265 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart) will provoke a further decline of EUR / USD to the targets located at the support levels of 1.1180 (June lows), 1.1125 (minimums of the year).
                      Below resistance levels 1.1355 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.1410 (monthly maximum)
                      short positions are preferred.
                      Support Levels: 1.1265, 1.1180, 1.1125
                      Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1310, 1.1355, 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600

                      Trading Scenarios

                      Sell ​​Stop 1.1255. Stop Loss 1.1295. Take-Profit 1.1200, 1.1180, 1.1125
                      Buy Stop 1.1295. Stop-Loss 1.1255. Take-Profit 1.1310, 1.1355, 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600



                      *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                      Comment


                      • EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
                        10/07/2019

                        Today is full of important economic events.
                        At 14:00 (GMT) the decision of the Bank of Canada on the interest rate will be published, which is expected to remain at the same level of 1.75%.
                        At 18:00 (GMT) scheduled publication of the minutes of the June meeting of the Committee on operations on the Fed open market.
                        However, the focus of investors will be on Powell’s presentation to the US Congress, which will begin at 14:00.
                        After the release of strong data on the labor market last Friday, many economists believe that the Fed can now postpone the decision on the need for additional measures. If Powell signals about the probability of lowering interest rates by 0.5% already on July 31, the dollar may sharply decline, and EUR / USD will fly above 1.1300, in the direction of recent highs near the 1.1410 mark.
                        If he hints that the Fed is not going to lower interest rates before September, then EUR / USD will resume the decline and head towards annual lows near the 1.1125 mark.
                        Powell most likely favors a 25 basis point decrease in interest rates in July. This decision is expected and already included in the price. After some strengthening, EUR / USD is likely to decline to a zone below the support level of 1.1200.
                        However, when trading today, one should take into account a sharp increase in volatility during his speech. In this situation, technical analysis fades into the background.
                        However, below the resistance levels of 1.1350 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.1410 (June highs), short positions are preferable.
                        In the alternative scenario and after the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.1260 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), EUR / USD will move towards the key resistance level of 1.1350 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). EUR / USD growth above this level will be limited by resistance levels of 1.1410 (monthly maximum), 1.1445 (from a technical point of view).
                        Support Levels: 1.1195, 1.1180, 1.1125
                        Resistance Levels: 1.1260, 1.1285, 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600

                        Trading Recommendations

                        Sell ​​Stop 1.1190. Stop Loss 1.1245. Take-Profit 1.1180, 1.1125
                        Buy Stop 1.1245. Stop-Loss 1.1190. Take-Profit 1.1260, 1.1285, 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1410


                        *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                        Comment


                        • GBP/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations
                          07/16/2019

                          The GBP / USD pair failed to develop an upward corrective movement above the short-term resistance level of 1.2540 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), and on Tuesday fell to 1.2410, resuming the decline in the global downtrend.
                          Probably, market participants have already taken into account in the price reduction of the Fed rate on July 31 and again focused on the problems around Brexit.
                          Boris Johnson, who is Theresa May’s most likely successor as prime minister, reiterated on Monday that he was ready for a tough Brexit on October 31, when the UK should finally withdraw from the EU, unless an agreement is reached between the parties.
                          The pound was also unable to get support after the publication on Tuesday of positive data, according to which, the UK labor market remains in force, despite the slowdown in the economy.
                          Below the key resistance level of 1.2900 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) long-term negative dynamics prevail. Short positions with a long-term goal, located at the support level of 1.2000, are preferable (2017 lows and Fibonacci 0% level of the correction to a decline of the GBP / USD pair in a wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200).
                          In the alternative scenario, the corrective growth of GBP / USD may resume, and after the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.2540, GBP / USD will go to resistance levels of 1.2630 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart), 1.2765 (June highs, February lows).
                          Above the resistance levels 1.2765, 1.2800 (upper line of the ascending channel on the daily chart) growth is unlikely.
                          At 17:00 will begin the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Last week, he unambiguously hinted at the inclination of the Fed leadership to ease monetary policy. Now investors will be waiting for new signals from him in relation to the Fed’s actions at a meeting on July 30 - 31. If he does not touch this topic, the reaction to his speech will be weak.
                          Support Levels: 1.2400, 1.2365
                          Resistance Levels: 1.2480, 1.2540, 1.2580, 1.2630, 1.2670, 1.2700, 1.2765, 1.2800

                          Trading Recommendations

                          Sell ​​in the market. Stop Loss 1.2520. Take-Profit 1.2400, 1.2365, 1.2300
                          Buy Stop 1.2520. Stop Loss 1.2420. Take-Profit 1.2540, 1.2580, 1.2630, 1.2670, 1.2700, 1.2765, 1.2800



                          *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

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                          • WTI Oil: Current Trends and Recommendations
                            07/19/2019

                            Despite a report by the US Department of Energy, published last Wednesday and showing a decline in oil reserves in the country, oil prices dropped sharply. Oil reserves in the US declined last week by 3.1 million barrels to 455.9 million barrels. However, it is still about 4% above the average 5-year value for this time of year.
                            The data of the Ministry of Energy also showed an unexpected increase in gasoline reserves by 3.6 million barrels and an increase in distillate stocks by 5.7 million barrels, to 136.2 million barrels.
                            The growth of stocks of petroleum products, according to economists, is due to lower demand in the United States and a decline in exports.
                            On Thursday, WTI quotes fell to 54.72. In total, since the beginning of the week, the price of WTI crude oil has lost approximately 7.5% by now.
                            On Friday, oil prices rebounded slightly after a sharp fall the day before. At the beginning of the European session on Friday, WTI crude oil traded near the mark of 56.00 dollars per barrel.
                            Nevertheless, due to the US-China trade conflict and due to the increase in the volume of shale oil production in the US, oil prices are likely to continue to decline.
                            On Friday, oil market participants will pay attention to the report of the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes on the number of active drilling rigs in the United States. Previous reports showed a decrease in the number of active oil platforms in the United States, to 784 units at the moment. If the report again indicates a decrease in the number of such installations, this may give a short-term positive impetus to prices. Publication of this report is scheduled for 17:00 (GMT).
                            The price of WTI crude oil has broken through key support levels of 58.80 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 56.80 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart) and continues to decline, trading on Friday near the mark of 56.00 dollars per barrel at the beginning of the European session.
                            Negative dynamics prevail, short positions are preferable.
                            Further decline will mean the return of oil prices into a bearish trend.
                            In the alternative scenario, the growth and price fixing in the zone above the resistance levels of 58.80, 59.50 (Fibonacci level 50%) will speak about the resumption of the bull trend. The signal for this will be the breakdown of short-term resistance levels of 57.65 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 58.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
                            Support levels: 55.40, 54.10, 53.25, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
                            Resistance Levels: 56.80, 57.65, 58.00, 58.80, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

                            Trading Scenarios

                            Sell ​​Stop 55.30. Stop-Loss 58.40. Take-Profit 54.10, 53.25, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
                            Buy Stop 58.40. Stop-Loss 55.30. Take-Profit 58.80, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50


                            *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

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                            • EUR/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations
                              07/24/2019

                              On Wednesday, EUR / USD declines for the fourth day in a row. Long-term negative dynamics remains below the resistance level of 1.1340 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). A strong level that holds EUR / USD from a more significant correction growth is the resistance level of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014). In the alternative scenario and after the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1285, EUR / USD will move towards the key resistance level of 1.1340 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) with the intermediate goal at the resistance level of 1.1300 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
                              A more aggressive scenario involves the return of EUR / USD to the zone of resistance levels 1.1410 (monthly maximum), 1.1445. However, this is an unlikely scenario.
                              In the current situation and below the resistance level of 1.1285, only short positions should be considered.
                              The PMI purchasing managers' index for the manufacturing sector in Germany, published on Wednesday, fell to a minimum of 84.1 in 84 months in July from 45.0 in June. The accelerated decline in industrial production in Germany indicates a growing recession risk in this country with the largest economy in Europe.
                              Investors expect the ECB at its next meeting on Thursday to not change its monetary policy, but Mario Draghi is likely to set the stage for easing monetary policy later, in September or November.
                              Expectations of such a decision by the ECB put strong pressure on the euro. The publication of the ECB decision on rates will be held on Thursday (at 11:45 GMT), the ECB press conference will begin at 12:30.
                              Obviously, before these events, the euro and the EUR / USD pair will remain under pressure.
                              Support Levels: 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1030
                              Resistance Levels: 1.1180, 1.1195, 1.1215, 1.1248, 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1340, 1.1410, 1.1445

                              Trading Recommendations

                              Sell ​​Stop 1.1125. Stop Loss 1.1160. Take-Profit 1.1100, 1.1030
                              Buy Stop 1.1160. Stop-Loss 1.1125. Take-Profit 1.1180, 1.1195, 1.1215, 1.1248, 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1340



                              *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

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                              • S&P500: Current dynamics before the Fed meeting
                                07/29/2019

                                Expectations of easing of the monetary policy of the Fed and positive macro statistics coming from the United States are pushing major US stock indexes to new heights.
                                Last week, the S&P500 index updated its record high near the 3028.0 mark after the US Department of Commerce released a report, according to which GDP grew in the 2nd by +2.1% (annualized) after +3.1% in the 1st quarter, with a forecast of +2.0%. At the same time, consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the US economy, in the 2nd quarter grew at the highest rate since the end of 2017, reaching +4.3%.
                                Trump again lashed out at the Fed after the publication of GDP data, calling the US central bank "a burden hanging on our neck", although GDP growth, in his opinion, was "not bad, given" the Fed's policy.
                                At the same time, the GDP report did not affect expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower its key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points at the meeting July 30 - 31, given the continuing risks of a downturn in the global economy and the need to achieve the target inflation rate.
                                Interest for investors will be the accompanying statements by the Fed leadership and a press conference following a meeting of the central bank. If Jerome Powell signals a propensity to lower the rate in September or before the end of the year, in this case, US stock indexes will accelerate their growth.
                                Since the opening of today's trading day, the S&P500 is trading in a narrow range near the 3020.0 mark.
                                Above support levels 2840.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 2865.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the growth since December 2018 and 2335.0 mark), the bullish trend of the S&P500 remains.
                                The signal for sales and the start of a downward correction will be the breakdown of the short-term support level of 3004.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) with targets at the support levels of 2965.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart and highs of May), 2937.0 (2018 highs).
                                So far, long positions are preferred. However, it is also likely that the S&P500 will remain in the current range until the end of the Wednesday when the Fed’s decision and plans are known.
                                Support Levels: 3004.0, 2965.0, 2937.0, 2865.0, 2840.0, 2765.0
                                Resistance Levels: 3028.0

                                Trading Recommendations

                                Sell ​​Stop 2990.0. Stop-Loss 3030.0. Targets 2965.0, 2937.0
                                Buy Stop 3030.0. Stop Loss 2990.0. Targets 3050.0, 3100.0, 3200.0


                                *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

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