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  • EUR/USD: Eurodollar is likely to continue to decline
    08/01/2019

    The dollar rose sharply, and the Eurodollar fell last Wednesday after the Fed’s decision regarding monetary policy became known. Fed cuts interest rate by 25 bp up to 2.25%. In general, such a decision was expected by market participants, although some of them counted on a 50 bp cut in interest rates.
    The Fed decided to lower the rate by 0.25% to protect the economy from the effects of the global slowdown and the escalation of trade tension. According to the Fed, "uncertainty about the prospects remains". At the same time, there was no clear signal from the Fed about a further rate cut, which caused disappointment among dollar sellers. At a subsequent press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also refrained from statements aimed at further easing the Fed's policies.
    According to the CME Group and according to the quotes of futures on Fed rates, market participants on Tuesday estimated at 87% the probability of another rate cut at the end of 2019, but now they believe that the probability of such a development is only 60%. As for the cycle of lowering rates, "at present we do not expect this", Powell said.
    The dollar went on the offensive, and the EUR / USD pair continued to decline during the Asian session on Thursday. At the beginning of the European session, the EUR / USD pair reached a new annual low near 1.1030 (the lower line of the downward channel on the weekly chart) amid expectations of further easing of the ECB's monetary policy.
    In the current situation, short positions in EUR / USD are preferable. Below the key resistance levels 1.1320 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), long-term negative dynamics prevail.
    You can return to purchases only after the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.1145 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), which will mean the beginning of an upward correction with a target near the resistance level 1.1210 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart and ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
    There are no prerequisites for a more confident growth of EUR / USD. At the same time, long-term reduction targets are located near 2015 and 2017 lows and marks 1.0600, 1.0500. After the breakdown of the support level of 1.1030, the immediate goal will be the support level of 1.0900.
    Support Levels: 1.1030, 1.1000, 1.0900, 1.0500
    Resistance Levels: 1.1145, 1.1180, 1.1210, 1.1285, 1.1320

    Trading Recommendations

    Sell ​​in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1080. Take-Profit 1.1000, 1.0900
    Buy Stop 1.1080. Stop-Loss 1.1020. Take-Profit 1.1145, 1.1180, 1.1210



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

    Comment


    • DJIA: Current Dynamics
      08/05/2019

      Against the background of expectations of easing the Fed's monetary policy, the US stock index DJIA updated last month the absolute and annual maximum near the level of 27400.0.
      Last week, the Fed lowered the rate by 0.25%. Many investors expected a rate cut by 0.50%, so the market reaction was restrained to this news.
      Although the indices have maintained their positive dynamics.
      However, stock indices, including the DJIA, crashed late last week after Trump tweeted that the United States introduced a new 10% duty on Chinese goods from September 1.
      Last week was the worst for US stock markets in a few months.
      S&P 500 on Friday fell by 0.7% to 2932.05 points. Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.4%, falling to 26485.01 points. Over the entire week, the S&P 500 fell 3.1% - this is its worst weekly dynamics since December. DJIA for the whole week fell by 2.6% and recorded the strongest weekly decline since May. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.3% on Friday to 8004.07 points, and lost 3.9% over the entire week.
      On Monday, the fall of world and US stock indices continues.
      Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 2.9% to 26151.32 points on Monday in Japan, while the Japanese Nikkei Stock Average fell 1.7% to 20720.29 points on the back of the yen rising to a 7-month high.
      Futures on the S&P500 index are trading at the beginning of the European session on Monday near 2888.0, 40 pips (or 1.3%) below the opening price of today's trading day.
      Futures on the DJIA index are trading at the beginning of the European session near the mark of 26100.0, 370 points (or 1.4%) below the opening price of today's trading day, near the support level of 26100.0 (EMA144 on the daily chart).
      In case of breakdown of the support level 25900.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the following objectives will be the support level 25300.0 (the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily and weekly charts) and the important support level 24630.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the DJIA growth wave that began in February 2016 from the mark of 15500.0).
      Nevertheless, despite the current decline, there is the long-term positive dynamics of the American stock indices and the DJIA index, including.
      A return to the zone above the resistance levels of 26700.0 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart and maximums of April 2019), 26830.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) will indicate a restoration of the bull trend and the resumption of purchases.
      In the meantime, you should refrain from shopping.
      Support Levels: 26100.0, 25900.0, 25300.0, 24630.0
      Resistance Levels: 26700.0, 26830.0, 27000.0, 27400.0

      Trading Scenarios

      Buy Stop 26850.0. Stop-Loss 25980.0. Take-Profit 27000.0, 27400.0, 27500.0
      Sell ​​Stop 25980.0. Stop-Loss 26850.0. Take-Profit 25900.0, 25300.0, 24630.0



      *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

      Comment


      • AUD/USD: downward dynamics prevails
        08/08/2019
        Current Dynamics

        The escalation of the trade war between the United States and China has strengthened expectations of a worsening situation in world international trade and the economy. The growth of fears about this caused a collapse of stock quotes and indices on world stock markets. Demand for safe haven assets, such as government bonds, yen, gold, has risen sharply. On Wednesday, gold prices exceeded $ 1,500 an ounce for the first time in six years. Since the beginning of the month, prices have increased by 6.9%, and from the end of May - by 15%. Yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell on Wednesday to 1.595% from 1.864% on Friday, to the lowest level since October 2016.
        Last Wednesday, interest rates fell immediately by three central banks (India, New Zealand and Thailand). On Wednesday, the RBNZ lowered its official interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00%, which was the second rate cut this year.
        As follows from the text of the RBNZ statement, "global economic activity continues to weaken ... increased uncertainty and reduced international trade contribute to lower economic growth in the trading partner countries ... and central banks relax monetary policy to support their economies".
        The RBA last Tuesday left the key interest rate at a record low of 1%, but gave a pessimistic forecast for the economy. "It is reasonable to expect that a long period of low interest rates will be required to progress towards lowering unemployment and achieve steady progress towards the target inflation rate", Philip Lowe said on Tuesday.
        At 23:30 (GMT) on Thursday, Lowe will begin speaking with members of the parliamentary committee on economics. If he points out that the key rate needs to be lowered again, then the Australian dollar will again be under pressure. In this case, the pair AUD / USD will again go “south” as part of a global downtrend.
        At the beginning of the European session, the pair AUD / USD is trading near the level of 0.6787, correcting after falling on Wednesday.
        Nevertheless, negative dynamics prevail, despite the correction. It is likely that the current position of AUD / USD and growth to the levels of 0.6800, 0.6816, 0.6830 will be a good opportunity to resume sales of this currency pair.
        We can return to the consideration of long positions only after the growth of AUD / USD to the zone above the resistance level of 0.6910 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) with targets not higher than the key resistance level of 0.7065 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
        In case of resumption of decline, the targets will be the support levels 0.6680, 0.6600. The distant target is located at support levels of 0.6260, 0.6000 (lows of 2008-2009).
        Support Levels: 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6600, 0.6300
        Resistance Levels: 0.6816, 0.6830, 0.6865, 0.6910, 0.7000, 0.7065

        Trading Recommendations

        Sell ​​by market. Sell-Limit 0.6800, 0.6816, 0.6830. Stop-Loss 0.6870. Take-Profit 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6600, 0.6300
        Buy Stop 0.6870. Stop-Loss 0.6810. Take-Profit 0.6910, 0.7000, 0.7065



        *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

        Comment


        • S&P500: Current Dynamics and Recommendations
          08/12/2019

          In July, the S&P500 rose to record highs near 3028.0, which is about 22% higher than the opening price at the beginning of the year.
          The growth of US stock indexes was contributed by the expectations of lower interest rates by the Fed and the positive macro statistics coming from the USA. However,
          investors' concerns about the slowdown in global economic growth and the aggravation of trade confrontation between the US and China caused a sharp increase in volatility in world stock markets and a drop in indices. After sharp fluctuations, all three leading US indices finished the week with a decline of about 1%.
          S&P500 completed last week at around 2918.0.
          "We are not ready to conclude an agreement, but we'll see how everything goes", Trump told reporters on Friday. "We'll see if China meets with us in September".
          During today's Asian session, the S&P500 and other major US stock indexes rose, but fell again at the beginning of the European session. Thus, S&P500 futures are trading at the beginning of the European session on Monday near the level of 2907.0, 14 points below the opening price today.
          The S&P500 futures are trading below resistance levels at 2944.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 2934.0, 2920.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
          Below the short-term resistance level of 2920.0, short positions with targets located near the support levels of 2845.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 2865.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to growth since December 2018 and mark 2335.0) are preferable. Above these support levels, the S&P500 bullish trend remains.
          The breakdown of support levels 2845.0, 2865.0 can trigger a deeper decline to support levels 2765.0 (Fibonacci 38.2%), 2680.0 (Fibonacci 50%).
          You can return to shopping after fixing the S&P500 in the zone above the resistance level of 2944.0.
          Support levels: 2900.0, 2865.0, 2845.0, 2765.0, 2730. 2680.0
          Resistance Levels: 2920.0, 2934.0, 2944.0, 2965.0, 3000.0, 3028.0

          Trading recommendations

          Sell ​​by market. Stop-Loss 2945.0. Goals 2900.0, 2865.0, 2845.0, 2800.0
          Buy Stop 2945.0. Stop-Loss 2910.0. Goals 2965.0, 3000.0, 3028.0, 3100.0, 3200.0



          *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

          Comment


          • EUR/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations
            08/16/2019

            With the opening of today's trading day, Eurodollar is again declining. Market participants are preparing for the next ECB meeting in September and new stimulus measures by the European Central Bank.
            According to Olli Rehn, member of the ECB Governing Council, the European Central Bank at its meeting in September will announce a substantial stimulus package that will exceed investor expectations.
            The ECB is likely to announce a 0.1% reduction in the key interest rate, which is now -0.4%, as well as an allocation of about 50 billion euros per month for additional bond purchases under the quantitative easing program.
            Published disappointing economic data from China and Germany this week, as well as positive macro data from the United States, made market participants even more doubt the prospects for global economic growth, and also again updated the attractiveness of American assets and a more stable state of the US economy.
            According to official data released on Thursday, US retail sales in July rose 0.7% (forecast was + 0.3%).
            Retail sales data are encouraging regarding the US economy, that remains demand for US assets and the dollar.
            Today (at 14:00 GMT) the University of Michigan consumer confidence index (preliminary release for August) will be published, which reflects the confidence of American consumers in the country's economic development. It is expected that this indicator will come out in August with a value of 97.7 (against 98.4 in July), which could negatively affect the dollar (in the short term) due to a relative decrease in the indicator. Data better than expected will certainly support the dollar, and will put additional pressure on EUR / USD.
            Below the resistance levels of 1.1305 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), long-term negative dynamics persist. In the current situation, short positions look relevant and safer, and the reduction targets are located at support levels 1.1000, 1.0000.
            You can return to purchases as part of the corrective growth of EUR / USD only after fixing the price in the zone above the short-term resistance level of 1.1160 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
            Support Levels: 1.1070, 1.1000, 1.0000
            Resistance Levels: 1.1125, 1.1160, 1.1190, 1.1245, 1.1260, 1.1285, 1.1305

            Trading Recommendations

            Sell ​​by market. Stop-Loss 1.1130. Take-Profit 1.1070, 1.1000, 1.0000
            Buy Stop 1.1130. Stop-Loss 1.1060. Take-Profit 1.1160, 1.1190, 1.1245, 1.1260, 1.1285



            *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

            Comment


            • S&P500: Current Dynamics and Recommendations
              Expectations of a softening of the monetary policy of the Fed and positive macro statistics coming from the United States, contributed to the growth of major US stock indexes last month to new heights.
              The S&P500 index updated a record high near 3028.0, however, subsequently collapsed amid Trump's threats to introduce new duties on Chinese goods from September 1.
              S&P500 last week again tested the key support level of 2848.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), dropping to around 2815.0.
              Nevertheless, investors are gradually becoming more active after recent events related to the aggravation of the trade conflict between the USA and China.
              At the beginning of the new week, gold quotes and yield on US government bonds are declining.
              Investors are encouraged by the prospect of new incentive measures by the Central Banks in several countries with the largest economies.
              Last week, the White House administration decided to postpone plans to introduce a new 10% duty on some Chinese goods worth $ 156 billion, which was due to take effect on September 1. In addition, the White House said that they are preparing the next round of negotiations.
              Since the opening of today's trading day, the S&P500 has been growing, and for the third day in a row.
              Above the support levels of 2848.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 2865.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the growth since December 2018 and the level of 2335.0), the S&P500 long-term bullish trend remains.
              After the breakdown of the resistance level of 2927.0 (EMA50 on the daily chart and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), the S&P500 will continue to move towards recent highs near 3028.0.
              Support Levels: 2900.0, 2892.0, 2865.0, 2848.0, 2765.0, 2730. 2680.0
              Resistance Levels: 2927.0, 2965.0, 3000.0, 3028.0

              Trading Recommendations

              Sell ​​Stop 2888.0. Stop-Loss 2929.0. Goals 2865.0, 2848.0
              Buy Stop 2929.0. Stop-Loss 2888.0. Goals 2965.0, 3000.0, 3028.0, 3100.0, 3200.0



              *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

              Comment


              • GBP/USD: short positions are still preferred
                08/23/2019

                Statements by Fed Chancellor Angela Merkel that the EU and the UK could come to an agreement on Brexit by October 31 have caused the pound to strengthen and the GBP / USD pair to rise to 1.2273, which corresponds to a 3-week high.
                However, on Friday, the decline in the pound and GBP / USD pair resumed. Investors are still betting on the further weakening of the pound, since the risks of the “hard” Brexit remain.
                “We are ready” for the hard Brexit scenario, French President Macron reiterated, while Boris Johnson said that Britain is also intensely preparing to leave the EU without any agreement.
                Meanwhile, investors expect the beginning (at 14:00 GMT) of the speech of the head of the Fed Jerome Powell at the symposium in Jackson Hole. Market participants want to understand the Fed's future plans for monetary policy.
                Several Fed leaders, as follows from the minutes of the July 30-31 meeting, believe that rates should be left unchanged because "the real economy remains in good shape".
                Despite conflicting signals from the Fed management, many market participants still expect one or two more Fed rate cuts this year, and the first reduction is already at the Fed meeting on September 17-18.
                The long-term negative dynamics of GBP / USD prevails. In case of breakdown of the short-term support level 1.2150 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) GBP / USD will go towards the support level 1.2000 (2017 lows and the Fibonacci level 0% of the correction to the GBP / USD pair decline in a wave that began in July 2014 near the level 1.7200).
                Short positions are preferred.
                Support Levels: 1.2175, 1.2150, 1.2100, 1.2000
                Resistance Levels: 1.2265, 1.2340, 1.2480, 1.2530, 1.2730

                Trading Scenarios

                Sell ​​by market. Stop-Loss 1.2280. Take-Profit 1.2175, 1.2150, 1.2100, 1.2000
                Buy Stop 1.2280. Stop-Loss 1.2190. Take-Profit 1.2340, 1.2480, 1.2530, 1.2730


                *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                Comment


                • DJIA: a new strong drop in indices
                  08/26/2019

                  Last month, the DJIA updated its absolute and annual maximum near the 27400.0 mark on expectations of a softer Fed monetary policy. Earlier, Trump has repeatedly criticized the Fed and called for lowering the interest rate by 1% at once, saying that this will accelerate growth in the stock market and support American producers.
                  The Fed lowered the rate by 0.25% at the end of July, however, stock markets reacted with restraint to this news, as many investors expected a rate cut by 0.50%.
                  However, stock indices, including DJIA, plummeted after Trump tweeted about the introduction of new 10% duties on Chinese goods from September 1.
                  August turned out to be extremely volatile. Fears of a slowdown in the global economy and further escalation of international trade conflicts do not leave investors.
                  Last Friday, global stock indices collapsed after China announced the introduction of duties on US goods worth $ 75 billion, and Donald Trump announced a response to this step of China.
                  On Monday, markets recovered some of the losses previously sustained after China Vice Premier Liu He said he wanted to resolve trade issues with the United States.
                  Market participants continue to follow any comments by the US and Chinese authorities regarding trade negotiations.
                  The deterioration of prospects in this direction may again bring down stock indices. Conversely, a warming or easing in trade disputes between the US and China will support stock indices.
                  The return of the DJIA to the zone above the resistance level of 26330.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart and local maximums) will indicate a recovery in the bull trend and the resumption of purchases.
                  Nevertheless, the OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts are still on the side of the sellers. Shopping is still premature.
                  Support Levels: 25270.0, 24600.0
                  Resistance Levels: 26030.0, 26100.0, 26330.0, 26700.0, 27000.0, 27400.0

                  Trading Scenarios

                  Buy Stop 26500.0. Stop-Loss 25800.0. Take-Profit 27000.0, 27400.0, 27500.0
                  Sell ​​Stop 25600.0. Stop-Loss 26100.0. Take-Profit 25300.0, 24600.0



                  *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                  Comment


                  • USD/CAD: Current Dynamics
                    08/30/2019

                    At the beginning of the European session on Friday, USD / CAD is trading at a short-term support level of 1.3290 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
                    In the event of a breakdown of this support level and the development of a downward correction, USD / CAD may decrease to the support level of 1.3250 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
                    Nevertheless, above this support level, long-term positive dynamics prevail. After the breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.3345 (August highs) USD / CAD will go towards the local resistance levels 1.3435, 1.3452 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the downward correction to the pair's growth in the global uptrend since September 2012 and the level of 0.9700), 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560 (highs of the year).
                    Only a breakdown of the key support level 1.3250 and the local support level 1.3230 can trigger a further decline with targets at support levels 1.3020, 1.2880 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
                    In general, the US dollar maintains a positive trend, and above the 1.3300 mark, long USD / CAD positions are preferred.
                    Futures on the DXY dollar index is trading at the beginning of the European session on Friday near 98.50, 11 points above the opening price of today's trading day. The growth for the week at the moment is already + 0.98%, which allows the DXY index to remain in positive territory by the results of the month.
                    From the news today, we are waiting for the publication (at 12:30 GMT) of a whole block of important macro statistics for Canada (Canadian GDP for June and for the 2nd quarter) and the United States (index of personal spending and personal consumption spending of Americans for July).
                    In view of the importance of the data published at 12:30 (GMT), one should be prepared for the growth of volatility in the USD / CAD pair during this period of time.
                    Support Levels: 1.3290, 1.3250, 1.3230, 1.3185, 1.3115, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2880
                    Resistance Levels: 1.3345, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560, 1.3600, 1.3660

                    Trading Scenarios

                    Sell ​​Stop 1.3265. Stop-Loss 1.3325. Take-Profit 1.3250, 1.3230, 1.3185, 1.3115, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2880
                    Buy Stop 1.3325. Stop-Loss 1.3265. Take-Profit 1.3345, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560, 1.3600



                    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                    Comment


                    • USD/CAD: American dollar is in demand
                      09/03/2019
                      Current Dynamics

                      The US dollar returns its previously lost positions, while commodity currencies are falling in price amid escalation of the trade conflict the USA with China.
                      On Tuesday, USD / CAD again tested the local resistance level of 1.3345, reached in August. Above the support level of 1.3250, the long-term positive dynamics of USD / CAD prevails. Long positions are preferred.
                      In the event of a breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.3345 (August highs) USD / CAD will go towards the local resistance levels 1.3435, 1.3452 (Fibonacci level 23.6%), 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560 (highs of the year).
                      In connection with the upcoming meeting of the Bank of Canada on Wednesday, you should also pay attention to the publication on Tuesday (at 13:30 GMT) of the PMI index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the economy of Canada, provided by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM). This indicator is an important indicator of the state of the Canadian economy. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the CAD, below 50 - as negative for the Canadian dollar. Forecast: 51.0 in August (against 51.2 in July). A relative decrease in the value (above 50) will have a short-term negative impact on the Canadian dollar. The data above the forecast will strengthen CAD.
                      Thus, most likely, the Bank of Canada on Wednesday will not reduce the rate from the current level of 1.75%, but will make it closer to the end of the year. Any hint from the Bank of Canada's management on this issue will put downward pressure on CAD.
                      In an alternative scenario, the signal for the resumption of short positions will be a breakdown of the short-term support level 1.3303 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
                      The objectives of the decline are the support levels 1.3250, 1.3258 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
                      The breakdown of these levels will trigger a further decline in the medium-term bearish trend with targets at support levels 1.3020, 1.2880 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
                      Support Levels: 1.3303, 1.3258, 1.3250, 1.3230, 1.3185, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2880
                      Resistance Levels: 1.3345, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560, 1.3600, 1.3660

                      Trading recommendations

                      Sell ​​Stop 1.3285. Stop-Loss 1.3355. Take-Profit 1.3258, 1.3250, 1.3230
                      Buy Stop 1.3355. Stop-Loss 1.3285. Take-Profit 1.3400, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560, 1.3600, 1.3660



                      *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                      Comment


                      • EUR/USD: Current dynamics on 09/09/2019

                        Published last Friday, data on the number of jobs outside the US agriculture in August fell short of expectations. According to data released on Friday by the Department of Labor, the number of jobs outside the US agriculture in August rose by 130,000 (the forecast was +150,000). The dollar is falling at the start of a new week after the publication of NFP.

                        Now investors are waiting for the Fed meeting next week and take into account the 100% probability of lowering rates by 0.25%.

                        Expectations of a more aggressive easing of the Fed's monetary policy are holding back investors from buying the dollar.

                        On Thursday (at 11:45 GMT), the ECB's decision on rates will be published. The ECB is expected to announce a large-scale easing program, as well as emphasizing its commitment to maintaining low interest rates.

                        Thus, most likely, before the publication of the ECB's decision on rates, the EUR / USD pair will trade in the range near current levels and the level of 1.1030, but with a tendency to further decline.

                        The immediate objectives of the decline in the event of a breakdown of the local support level of 1.1000 will be otmeki 1.0960, 1.0940. In an alternative scenario, a breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.1100 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) may become a signal to start an upward correction. The target is located at the resistance level of 1.1130 (local maximums and ЕМА50 on the daily chart). Growth above these levels is unlikely. Long-term negative dynamics prevail. Expectations of further easing of the monetary policy of the ECB put pressure on the euro and the pair EUR / USD.

                        Support Levels: 1.1030, 1.1000

                        Resistance Levels: 1.1100, 1.1130, 1.1200, 1.1220, 1.1270, 1.1285




                        Trading Recommendations


                        Sell ​​Stop 1.0990. Stop-Loss 1.1090. Take-Profit 1.0960, 1.0940, 1.0900

                        Buy Stop 1.1090. Stop-Loss 1.0990. Take-Profit 1.1100, 1.1130, 1.1200, 1.1220, 1.1270, 1.1285



                        [img]https://i.postimg.cc/G2cQDnCQ/090919-EU-H4.png[/img]

                        *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                        Comment


                        • EUR/USD: on the eve of the ECB meeting
                          09/12/2019

                          The focus of traders today is the ECB meeting. The ECB is expected to announce a large-scale easing program, including a reduction in deposit rates by 20 basis points, and bond purchases of € 30 billion per month for nine months.
                          If the ECB's decisions on monetary policy turn out to be more modest and disappoint market participants, then the euro may further strengthen, including in the EUR / USD pair. Thus, the intrigue about the actions of the ECB at its meeting today remains, and you need to be prepared for high volatility in this period of time. The decision on rates will be published at 11:45 (GMT), and at 12:30 the ECB press conference will begin.
                          In case of significant mitigation measures by the ECB today, the EUR / USD pair will again go “south” with the immediate target at 1.0960 (the lower border of the downward channel on the weekly chart).
                          If the ECB does not live up to market expectations and declares a less aggressive stimulus policy, then the EUR / USD pair after a short-term decline may resume corrective growth in the direction of resistance levels 1.1210 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 1.1260 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014).
                          Growth above these resistance levels is unlikely.
                          Support Levels: 1.1000, 1.0960, 1.0940, 1.0900
                          Resistance Levels: 1.1030, 1.1090, 1.1115, 1.1210, 1.1260, 1.1285

                          Trading Recommendations

                          Sell ​​Stop 1.0980. Stop-Loss 1.1060. Take-Profit 1.0960, 1.0940, 1.0900, 1.0800
                          Buy Stop 1.1060. Stop-Loss 1.0980. Take-Profit 1.1090, 1.1115, 1.1210, 1.1260
                          [img]https://i.postimg.cc/gcCv5zrk/120919-EU-W.png[/img]


                          *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

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                          • S&P500: positive momentum maintains
                            09/13/2019

                            As already known, on Thursday the ECB lowered the base interest rate on deposits to -0.5% and resumed the QE program by 20 billion euros per month. The new quantitative easing program is expected to be “implemented as much as needed”, the ECB said.
                            European, world and US stock indices positively accepted the ECB decision, continuing to strengthen on Friday.
                            Expectations of reaching an agreement in a trade dispute between the US and China, easing the monetary policy of the Fed and positive macro statistics coming in from the USA on Thursday also contributed to the resumption of growth in major US stock indexes.
                            On Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% to 27182.00 points, which was the seventh consecutive growth session. The S&P 500 added 0.3% to reach 3009.00 points, while the Nasdaq Composite also rose 0.3% to 8194.0 points. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose on Friday to 1.805% versus 1.733% on Wednesday, which indicates the tendency of investors to buy more risky, but also more profitable stock market assets.
                            At the beginning of the European session on Friday, futures on the S&P500 index were trading near 3014.0, close to absolute and annual highs at 3028.0.
                            On the eve of the Fed meeting next week, the S&P500 index maintains a long-term positive trend. It is widely expected that the Fed will lower rates by 0.25%, to 2.0%, the second time this year.
                            The index is trading above the key support level of 2865.0 (ЕМА200 and the lower border of the ascending channel on the daily chart, as well as the Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the growth since December 2018 and the level of 2335.0). After the breakdown of the local resistance level of 3028.0 (absolute maximums), the S&P500 growth is likely to continue.
                            Above the support level of 2940.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart and the middle of the rising channel on the daily chart), from S&P500 sales should be abstained.
                            Support Levels: 2990.0, 2972.0, 2965.0, 2940.0, 2900.0, 2865.0, 2765.0
                            Resistance Levels: 3028.0

                            Trading Recommendations

                            Sell ​​Stop 2990.0. Stop-Loss 3022.0. Goals 2972.0, 2965.0, 2940.0, 2900.0, 2865.0
                            Buy Stop 3022.0. Stop-Loss 2990.0. Goals 3028.0, 3100.0, 3200.0


                            *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

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                            • EUR/USD: negative dynamics prevail
                              09/16/2019

                              EUR / USD continues to decline in the long-term bearish trend, trading in downward channels on the daily and weekly charts.
                              At the beginning of this month, EUR / USD tested the support level near the level of 1.0960, however, subsequently rose to the resistance level of 1.1115 (the upper border of the downward channel and ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
                              At the moment, EUR / USD is falling, remaining under pressure from the ECB's decision on monetary policy last Thursday. As you know, the ECB resumed the program of quantitative easing and lowered the key interest rate on deposits by 0.1%, to -0.5%.
                              Now financial market participants are turning their attention to the Fed meeting next week. As expected, the Fed will reduce the rate by 0.25% to 2.00%, which will not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the dollar. The dollar may weaken sharply if the Fed leaders announce plans to further mitigate monetary policy by the end of the year.
                              The Fed meeting will be held September 17 - 18. Probably, up to this point, the EUR / USD pair will also remain under pressure. In the context of trade wars, the dollar remains a protective asset.
                              Currently, EUR / USD is trading below the key resistance levels of 1.1210 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 1.1260 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014) .
                              Short positions are recommended below these resistance levels.
                              The breakdown of the short-term support level of 1.1045 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) will be a signal for resuming sales of EUR / USD with targets near the levels of 1.0900, 1.0850.
                              Support Levels: 1.1045, 1.1000, 1.0960, 1.0940, 1.0900, 1.0850
                              Resistance Levels: 1.1087, 1.1115, 1.1210, 1.1260, 1.1285

                              Trading Recommendations

                              Sell ​​Stop 1.1040. Stop-Loss 1.1090. Take-Profit 1.1000, 1.0960, 1.0940, 1.0900, 1.0850
                              Buy Stop 1.1090. Stop-Loss 1.1040. Take-Profit 1.1115, 1.1210, 1.1260


                              *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

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                              • GBP/USD: Current dynamics
                                09/19/2019

                                On the eve of the meeting of the Bank of England, the pound and GBP / USD are trading higher getting support from the reduced risks of the “hard” Brexit and positive macro statistics.
                                Earlier this month, the pound also received support after the publication of positive macro statistics, indicating a decrease in unemployment in the UK in May-July to 3.8% from 3.9% in April-June. The average earnings excluding bonuses in May-July increased by 3.8%, which is higher than the forecast of 3.7%, although lower than the indicator of April-June 3.9%.
                                The growth of British income is a positive factor for the pound, since it speaks in favor of an increase in spending on personal consumption and, accordingly, is an inflationary indicator.
                                On Tuesday, the GBP / USD pair reached a local and 2-month high near 1.2530 (June lows), through which the upper border of the descending channel on the daily chart passes.
                                A breakthrough of this resistance level will open the way for the growth of GBP / USD in the zone of resistance levels 1.2565 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 1.2660 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
                                In case of breakdown of the support levels 1.2400 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.2310 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), the bearish GBP / USD trend will resume.
                                The current goal of the decline is the support level of 1.2000 (2017 lows and the Fibonacci level 0% of the correction to decline of the GBP / USD pair in the wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200).
                                The intrigue regarding the decisions of the Bank of England and its further actions remains. You must be prepared for a sharp increase in volatility in pound trading after 11:00 (GMT), when the Bank of England decision on rates will be published, as well as the minutes from this meeting of the bank.
                                Support Levels: 1.2400, 1.2310, 1.2270, 1.2255, 1.2200, 1.2175, 1.2150, 1.2100, 1.2000
                                Resistance Levels: 1.2530, 1.2565, 1.2660

                                Trading Scenarios

                                Sell ​​Stop 1.2390. Stop-Loss 1.2540. Take-Profit 1.2310, 1.2270, 1.2255, 1.2200, 1.2175, 1.2150, 1.2100, 1.2000
                                Buy Stop 1.2540. Stop-Loss 1.2390. Take-Profit 1.2565, 1.2660



                                *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

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