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  • GBP/USD: Current dynamics
    09/19/2019

    On the eve of the meeting of the Bank of England, the pound and GBP / USD are trading higher getting support from the reduced risks of the “hard” Brexit and positive macro statistics.
    Earlier this month, the pound also received support after the publication of positive macro statistics, indicating a decrease in unemployment in the UK in May-July to 3.8% from 3.9% in April-June. The average earnings excluding bonuses in May-July increased by 3.8%, which is higher than the forecast of 3.7%, although lower than the indicator of April-June 3.9%.
    The growth of British income is a positive factor for the pound, since it speaks in favor of an increase in spending on personal consumption and, accordingly, is an inflationary indicator.
    On Tuesday, the GBP / USD pair reached a local and 2-month high near 1.2530 (June lows), through which the upper border of the descending channel on the daily chart passes.
    A breakthrough of this resistance level will open the way for the growth of GBP / USD in the zone of resistance levels 1.2565 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 1.2660 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
    In case of breakdown of the support levels 1.2400 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.2310 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), the bearish GBP / USD trend will resume.
    The current goal of the decline is the support level of 1.2000 (2017 lows and the Fibonacci level 0% of the correction to decline of the GBP / USD pair in the wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200).
    The intrigue regarding the decisions of the Bank of England and its further actions remains. You must be prepared for a sharp increase in volatility in pound trading after 11:00 (GMT), when the Bank of England decision on rates will be published, as well as the minutes from this meeting of the bank.
    Support Levels: 1.2400, 1.2310, 1.2270, 1.2255, 1.2200, 1.2175, 1.2150, 1.2100, 1.2000
    Resistance Levels: 1.2530, 1.2565, 1.2660

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell ​​Stop 1.2390. Stop-Loss 1.2540. Take-Profit 1.2310, 1.2270, 1.2255, 1.2200, 1.2175, 1.2150, 1.2100, 1.2000
    Buy Stop 1.2540. Stop-Loss 1.2390. Take-Profit 1.2565, 1.2660



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

    Comment


    • DJIA: current dynamics and market expectations
      09/23/2019

      US stock indices maintain a long-term positive trend. In mid-September, DJIA again approached the level of absolute and annual highs near the 27400.0 mark. However, a breakdown of this resistance level did not occur and the DJIA again declined.
      On Friday, it became known that the Chinese trade delegation canceled the planned visit to US agricultural enterprises after President Donald Trump said he was not interested in a “partial agreement” with China.
      This information caused a fall in the stock market and a rise in price of protective assets. Gold rose again in price, and the yield on 10-year US bonds fell to 1.754% from 1.777% on Thursday. The decline in US stock indexes on Friday led to the fact that they closed last week in negative territory.
      In the first half of the European session on Monday, DJIA futures traded in the range between the short-term resistance level of 27010.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) and support level 26670.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
      Breakdown in one direction or another will determine the direction of further movement of the DJIA.
      In case of resumption of decline, the targets will be the support level of 26030.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 25270.0 (local lows and the bottom line of the ascending channel on the weekly chart), 24600.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of correction to the DJIA growth wave, which began in February 2016 from the mark of 15500.0).
      A return to the zone above the resistance level of 27010.0 will indicate a restoration of the bull trend and will speak in favor of the resumption of purchases.
      From the news for today it is worth paying attention to the publication at 13:45 (GMT) of the Procurement Managers Index (PMI) for the US manufacturing sector in September (according to the forecast it will be 50.3, as in August). If the data turn out to be better than the forecast, then US stock indices will rise. Data is worse than forecast and below 50 will negatively affect US stock indices.
      Support Levels: 26670.0, 26030.0, 25270.0, 24600.0
      Resistance Levels: 27010.0, 27400.0

      Trading Scenarios

      Buy Stop 27030.0. Stop-Loss 26650.0 Take-Profit 27400.0, 27500.0
      Sell ​​Stop 26650.0. Stop-Loss 27030.0. Take-Profit 26030.0, 25270.0, 24600.0


      *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

      Comment


      • NZD/USD: RBNZ did not change the rate
        09/25/2019

        The US dollar is recovering from a recent fall amid a statement by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi that she will hold a meeting with members of the Democratic Party to discuss preparations for impeachment of President Donald Trump.
        The US Consumer Confidence Index (from the Conference Board), published on Tuesday, which fell to 125.1 in September (with a forecast of 133.0 versus 135.1 in August), also negatively impacted the dollar.
        On Wednesday (14:00 GMT) there will be data on home sales in the primary US market. They are expected to grow by 3.6% compared with the previous month, to 658,000 homes a year, which will support the dollar in confirming the forecast.
        Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar resumed its decline in the first half of today's European session.
        At a meeting on Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the key interest rate at 1.0%, but signaled the likelihood of a further decline.
        "There is room for further monetary and fiscal stimulation, if necessary, to support the economy, as well as keep target inflation and employment levels in force. Tensions in world trade and other political problems remain at high levels and continue to put pressure on the growth prospects of the global economy, which negatively affects the demand for goods and services in New Zealand", the RBNZ said in a statement.
        Business confidence also remains low, which partly reflects political uncertainty and low profitability in some sectors, which negatively affects investment decisions, bank executives said.
        Thus, a further weakening of the New Zealand dollar and the fall of the NZD / USD pair are likely.
        The NZD / USD pair was unable to develop an upward correction above the short-term resistance level of 0.6323 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) and resumed its decline within the descending channel on the daily chart.
        Below resistance levels 0.6425, 0.6385 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), only short positions should be considered.
        The tendency of the RBNZ to maintain a soft policy and possibly further lower the rate puts pressure on NZD / USD towards its further decline with targets at support levels of 0.6260 (Fibonacci level of 0% and minimums of the global wave of pair decline from the level of 0.8820), 0.6200. Short positions are preferred so far.
        Below the resistance level of 0.6600 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the long-term bearish trend NZD / USD prevails.
        Support Levels: 0.6260, 0.6200
        Resistance Levels: 0.6323, 0.6385, 0.6425, 0.6490, 0.6555, 0.6600

        Trading Scenarios

        Sell ​​by market. Stop-Loss 0.6350. Take-Profit 0.6260, 0.6200
        Buy Stop 0.6350. Stop-Loss 0.6290. Take-Profit 0.6425


        *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

        Comment


        • AUD/USD: negative dynamics prevail
          09/27/2019

          On the eve of the RBA meeting next week, the Australian dollar remains under pressure. Many market participants and economists expect that at a meeting scheduled for October 1, the RBA will lower the rate by 0.25% to 0.75%.
          "It is reasonable to expect that a long period of low interest rates will be required for progress towards lowering unemployment and achieving the target inflation rate", said RBA Governor Philip Lowe following a bank meeting in September.
          Meanwhile, the US dollar maintains its position in the foreign exchange market. The US economy appears more resilient in the current context of international trade conflicts and a slowing global economy. This stimulates the purchase of US assets and the dollar. At the beginning of the European session on Friday, futures for the DXY dollar index are trading near 98.85, 9 points above yesterday's closing price. Long-term positive dynamics of the dollar and the DXY index persist.
          At 12:30 (GMT) data on personal income / expenses of Americans will be published. The PCE core price index is expected to accelerate to 1.8% in August (after rising 1.6% in July). This is slightly below the Fed's target annual inflation rate of 2%.
          If the data matches the forecast or is better than it, then the dollar will receive additional support.
          It is logical to expect a further decline in the pair AUD / USD, which remains in the long-term bearish trend, falling in the descending channels on the daily and weekly charts. Below the key resistance level of 0.6980 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), negative dynamics prevail. The immediate objectives of the decline are the support levels of 0.6680, 0.6600. The distant target is located at support levels of 0.6260, 0.6000 (lows of 2008 - 2009). Short positions are preferred.
          Support Levels: 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6600, 0.6300
          Resistance Levels: 0.6810, 0.6830, 0.6890, 0.6930, 0.6980

          Trading Recommendations

          Sell ​​by market. Sell-Limit 0.6810, 0.6830. Stop-Loss 0.6850. Take-Profit 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6600, 0.6300
          Buy Stop 0.6850. Stop-Loss 0.6790. Take-Profit 0.6890, 0.6920


          *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

          Comment


          • EUR/USD: long-term negative dynamics. Sales.
            09/30/2019

            EUR / USD continues to decline in the first half of the trading day on Monday. At the beginning of the European session, the EUR / USD pair was trading near 1.0933. Positive data from the labor market in Germany and the Eurozone, published at the beginning of the European session, had practically no noticeable effect on the dynamics of the euro. Investors will wait for the publication (at 12:00 GMT) of the preliminary harmonized consumer price index (HICP) in Germany. Recent data indicate an accelerating downward trend in inflationary pressures in Germany. Forecast for September: + 1.2% (against + 1.0% in August). The rate growth is a positive factor for the euro. However, this is not enough to break the negative trend of the euro. The euro is likely to strengthen shortly after the publication of this indicator. If the data for September turn out to be worse than the forecast or the previous value (+ 1.0%), then Eurodollar may significantly decrease.
            In general, long-term negative dynamics persist. Since May 2014, EUR / USD remains in a long-term bearish trend. Currently, EUR / USD is trading in downward channels on the daily and weekly charts, below the key resistance levels of 1.1175 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 1.1230 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). Below the short-term resistance level of 1.0977 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), short positions are recommended.
            The breakdown of the local support level of 1.0900 will trigger a deeper decline and will direct EUR / USD towards 1.0850, 1.0800.
            In an alternative scenario and in case of breakdown of the resistance level, 1.0977 EUR / USD will go towards the resistance level of 1.1045 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart and the upper border of the downward channel on the daily chart). The maximum of corrective growth is possible up to the resistance level of 1.1067 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart). Growth above this resistance level is unlikely.
            Support Levels: 1.0900, 1.0850
            Resistance Levels: 1.0977, 1.1000, 1.1026, 1.1045, 1.1067, 1.1115

            Trading Recommendations

            Sell ​​by market. Stop-Loss 1.0980. Take-Profit 1.0900, 1.0850, 1.0800
            Buy Stop 1.0980. Stop-Loss 1.0920. Take-Profit 1.1000, 1.1026, 1.1045, 1.1067


            *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

            Comment


            • NZD/USD: world central banks tend to soften policies
              10/01/2019

              At the beginning of today's European session, the NZD / USD pair is trading near the 0.6225 mark. The fundamental background creates the prerequisites for a further decline in this currency pair. RBNZ executives are prone to further easing monetary policy.
              "The US-China trade conflict is affecting international trade flows and investments, as companies scale up spending plans in the face of heightened uncertainty", said RBA manager Philip Lowe after Australia's central bank cut interest rates today by 0,25%.
              Earlier in August, the RBNZ also lowered the rate, at once by 50 bp, to 1.00%, explaining this decision by the aggravation of the trade war between the United States and China and the loss of momentum in the New Zealand economy. The New Zealand currency remains vulnerable amid the risks of a slowdown in the global economy and a trade conflict between New Zealand’s two largest trading partners — China and the United States.
              Earlier in early September, the NZD / USD pair was unable to develop an upward correction above the local resistance level of 0.6443 and resumed decline in the descending channels on the daily and weekly charts.
              Currently, NZD / USD is trading near the 0.6225 mark, below the short-term resistance level of 0.6293 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
              Below resistance levels 0.6293, 0.6365 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), only short positions should be considered.
              An alternative scenario assumes a breakdown of the local resistance level of 0.6365 and correctional growth with targets at the resistance level of 0.6443, 0.6490 (lows in May and June). Further growth of NZD / USD is unlikely, unless, of course, the Fed also begins to aggressively reduce the interest rate.
              Below the resistance level of 0.6585 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the long-term bearish trend NZD / USD prevails.
              From the news today regarding NZD, you should pay attention to the publication (after 2:00 p.m. (GMT) of data on the results of a dairy auction organized by the New Zealand company Fonterra (a specialized trading platform GlobalDairyTrade - GDT). Two weeks ago, the price index for dairy products prepared by Global Dairy Trade came out with a value of +2.0%. If the data indicate a drop in world prices for dairy products, primarily milk powder, then the New Zealand dollar will decline.
              Support Levels: 0.6200, 0.6100
              Resistance Levels: 0.6260, 0.6293, 0.6365, 0.6425, 0.6490, 0.6535, 0.6585

              Trading Scenarios

              Sell ​​by market. Stop-Loss 0.6310. Take-Profit 0.6200, 0.6100
              Buy Stop 0.6310. Stop-Loss 0.6250. Take-Profit 0.6365, 0.6425, 0.6490



              *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

              Comment


              • USD/CHF: dollar on the eve of the publication of data from the US labor market
                10/04/2019

                Following the release of disappointing US macro data this week, the dollar remains under pressure.
                The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the US manufacturing sector, calculated by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), dropped to 47.8 in September from 49.1 in August, reaching a low since June 2009 (forecast was 50.0).
                The Procurement Managers Index (PMI) for the US services industry (from Markit Economics), published last Thursday, was 50.9 in September, showing the slowest growth in more than three years.
                Other recent data also indicated that the ongoing US-China trade war is putting pressure on the US economy.
                Now the focus of traders is the US data on the number of jobs outside agriculture, which will be published on Friday (at 12:30 GMT). It is expected that the number of jobs in the United States will increase by 145,000 in September after an increase of 130,000 in August and unemployment at the previous level of 3.7%.
                If the report on the labor market is weak, the expectations of traders regarding the Fed rate cut may be strengthened.
                According to CME Group, the probability of another 2 Fed rate cuts this year is 53%, compared to 39% on Wednesday and 19% a week ago.
                Meanwhile, the USD / CHF pair is falling in the first half of the trading day. At the beginning of today's European session, it is trading near 0.9940.
                Despite the current decline, the positive dynamics of USD / CHF. The pair is trading in the upward channel on the daily chart, above the key support level of 0.9920 (ЕМА200 and Fibonacci level 50% of the upward correction to the last wave of decline from November 2018 and from the level of 1.0130).
                A signal for sales with the target at support levels of 0.9875 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%), 0.9815 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%) will be a breakdown of the short-term support level of 0.9905 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
                In an alternative scenario, a breakdown of the nearest resistance level 0.9955 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) will return USD / CHF to the bullish trend and point towards recent highs and the level of 1.0025.
                Support Levels: 0.9940, 0.9922, 0.9905, 0.9875, 0.9840, 0.9815
                Resistance Levels: 0.9955, 0.9970, 1.0000, 1.0025, 1.0110, 1.0130

                Trading Scenarios

                Sell ​​Stop 0.9930. Stop-Loss 0.9960. Take-Profit 0.9922, 0.9905, 0.9875, 0.9840, 0.9815
                Buy Stop 0.9960. Stop-Loss 0.9930. Take-Profit 0.9970, 1.0000, 1.0025, 1.0110, 1.0125



                *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                Comment


                • S&P500: long-term positive dynamics
                  07/10/2019

                  Investors, in general, reacted positively to the publication of a report from the US labor market last Friday. US stock indexes rose.
                  A lower-than-expected rate of job growth has strengthened expectations of further cuts in Fed interest rates.
                  The soft policies of the central bank usually support the stock market, increasing the propensity of investors to buy risky assets.
                  At the same time, the employment report helped alleviate concerns about a slowdown in economic growth. Despite declining activity in the manufacturing and services sectors, US employment growth rates remain high.
                  The US Department of Labor said last Friday that the number of jobs outside the US agriculture in September rose 136,000 (the forecast was +145,000), while unemployment fell to 3.5%, a 50-year low.
                  The dollar is also rising on Monday. Futures on the DXY dollar index, is trading at the beginning of the European session on Monday near 98.61, 15 points above the opening price of today's trading day.
                  US stock indexes also, despite a strong correction last week, maintain long-term positive dynamics.
                  Last week, Fed vice chairman Richard Clarida said the Central Bank will do everything necessary to ensure that the longest period of US economic growth does not stop. This week, several Fed representatives are also expected to speak. In particular, on Monday at 17:00 (GMT) Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak.
                  On Friday, he said that “the US economy is in good shape despite the risks”, and the Fed’s mission “is to keep this state of affairs as long as possible”.
                  If he again expresses a tendency to further soften the Fed's monetary policy, then US stock indexes are likely to continue to grow.

                  The S&P500 index maintains long-term positive dynamics, trading above the key support level 2875.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), as well as the level 2865.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the growth since December 2018 and mark 2335.0).
                  It is likely that after the breakdown of the resistance level 2954.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), the S&P500 will continue to grow towards the level of 3028.0 (absolute maximums) and further.
                  Nevertheless, below the resistance level of 2954.0 from S&P500 purchases for the time being should refrain.
                  Support Levels: 2902.0, 2875.0, 2865.0, 2765.0, 2730.0
                  Resistance Levels: 2943.0, 2954.0, 2990.0, 3028.0

                  Trading Recommendations

                  Sell ​​Stop 2922.0. Stop-Loss 2955.0. Objectives 2902.0, 2875.0, 2865.0, 2765.0, 2730.0
                  Buy Stop 2955.0. Stop-Loss 2922.0. Objectives 2990.0, 3028.0, 3100.0, 3200.0



                  *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                  Comment


                  • S&P500: stock indices remain positive
                    10/14/2019
                    Current situation

                    The weakening trade tensions between the US and China caused a rise in positive market sentiment. Last week, Washington decided to postpone the introduction of higher duties on Chinese goods in the amount of $ 250 billion in response to guarantees that the Chinese side would buy US agricultural products in the amount of $ 40-50 billion.
                    However, many economists remain cautious about the consequences of a partial transaction and the outcome of future negotiations.
                    Despite some concessions made by the parties last week, the main trade contradictions between the US and China have not been resolved, which continues to overshadow the prospects for the global economy.
                    In the middle of last month, the S&P500 again approached the level of absolute and annual maximums near 3028.0. However, for the breakdown of this level of resistance, the positive impulse was not enough and the S&P500 fell again.
                    Market participants continue to follow any comments by the US and Chinese authorities regarding trade negotiations.
                    In the first half of the European session on Monday, futures on the S&P500 traded in the range between the local resistance level of 2990.0 (last week's maximum) and the short-term support level of 2950.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
                    Breakdown in one direction or another will determine the direction of further index movement.
                    Despite the current decline, the long-term positive dynamics of US stock indices and the S&P500, including.
                    A return to the zone above the resistance level of 2990.0 will indicate a restoration of the bull trend and speak in favor of the resumption of purchases.
                    The S&P500 index maintains long-term positive dynamics, trading above the key support level of 2880.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), as well as the level of 2865.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the growth since December 2018 and mark 2335.0). A little lower is the lower boundary of the rising channel on the daily chart.
                    Nevertheless, the OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts are on the side of the sellers, signaling a downward correction. So, purchases are premature so far.
                    Today is a day off in the USA (Columbus Day). Banks and exchanges will be closed. Trading volumes during the US session will be low. However, this does not exclude the possibility of a sharp increase in volatility in the thin market, especially due to unexpected news or media reports.
                    Support Levels: 2950.0, 2942.0, 2905.0, 2880.0, 2865.0, 2765.0, 2730.0
                    Resistance Levels: 2990.0, 3028.0

                    Trading Recommendations

                    Sell ​​Stop 2940.0. Stop-Loss 2995.0. Objectives 2905.0, 2880.0, 2865.0, 2765.0, 2730.0
                    Buy Stop 2995.0. Stop-Loss 2940.0. Goals 3028.0, 3100.0, 3200.0


                    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                    Comment


                    • Rugby World Cup 2019 will air on September 2019. You All Blacks vs Springboks Watch Free have not enough time to get ready. Your favorite All Blacks vs Springboks match also here under this RWC 2019. As a die-hard fan of rugby, you need to know some essential element about this game. Because you are willing to enjoy the match. You should know about this match. Since the official site consistently gives the news which is identified with the occasion. What’s more, this data is extremely basic for all.

                      Comment


                      • WTI: negative dynamics prevail despite corrective growth
                        10/18/2019

                        In the middle of last month, the price of WTI crude oil rose sharply, approaching a strong resistance level of 63.50 (Fibonacci level 61.8% of the upward correction to the fall from the highs of the last few years near 76.80 to the support level near 42.15, as well as the upper border of the downward channel on the daily chart). The sharp rise in oil prices was facilitated by terrorist attacks on oil refineries in Saudi Arabia.
                        However, the price failed to break through this resistance level and subsequently fell, returning to the zone below the key level of 57.00 (ЕМА144, ЕМА200 on the daily and weekly charts).
                        At the beginning of the European session, WTI crude oil is trading near 54.20, below the resistance level of 54.80 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
                        The breakdown of the short-term support level of 53.50 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) will resume the bearish trend.
                        In an alternative scenario, the signal to resume purchases will be a breakdown of the resistance level of 55.40 (EMA50 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 38.2%).
                        Further growth and the breakdown of the resistance level of 57.00 will strengthen the bullish momentum and direct the price to the resistance level of 60.90 (July highs) and to the 63.50, 64.40 marks.
                        So far, a negative impulse prevails. Below the resistance level of 54.80, only short positions should be considered.
                        Now, oil market participants will follow the publication on Friday (at 17:00 GMT) of the weekly report of the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes on the number of active drilling rigs in the United States. Previous reports indicated a decrease in the number of active oil platforms in the United States, to 712 units at the moment. If the report again indicates a decrease in the number of such installations, then this may give a short-term positive impetus to prices.
                        However, so far, a negative impulse prevails, contributing to a further decline in oil prices.
                        The situation in the global stock and commodity markets may deteriorate again if on Saturday the British Parliament does not approve the Brexit.
                        In this case, world stock indices may fall again, pulling down oil quotes.
                        Support Levels: 53.50, 52.00, 51.30, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
                        Resistance Levels: 54.80, 55.40, 57.00, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

                        Trading recommendations

                        Sell ​​Stop 53.40. Stop-Loss 55.50. Take-Profit 53.00, 52.00, 51.30, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
                        Buy Stop 55.50. Stop-Loss 53.40. Take-Profit 57.00, 59.50, 60.90


                        *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                        Comment


                        • GBP/USD: the pound does not want to decline
                          10/21/2019

                          The pound and GBP / USD have been rising since the beginning of this month and for the 4th week in a row, receiving support from the reduced risks of the “hard” Brexit. Despite the fact that Boris Johnson on Saturday failed to secure the support of the British Parliament regarding his Brexit deal, the pound did not lose a positive impulse. The members of parliament decided that a decisive vote can only be held after a thorough examination of all related legislation, which can take a considerable amount of time.
                          Johnson obeyed the decision of the Parliament, but in a separate letter addressed to the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, asked the EU leaders to reject his own motion.
                          Despite the pound falling during the Asian session, at the beginning of the European session on Monday, the GBP / USD pair is growing again, rising to the level of 1.3011.
                          This week Johnson will again try to enlist the support of a sufficient number of legislators to approve the agreement. However, the likelihood of a hard Brexit is significantly reduced.
                          Earlier in October, GBP / USD broke through an important resistance level of 1.2625 (EMA200 on the daily chart) and today reached a new 5-month high near 1.3011,
                          through which the upper boundary of the descending channel passes on the weekly chart.
                          A breakthrough of this resistance level will open the way for the growth of GBP / USD to the zone of resistance levels of 1.3100 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the reduce the GBP / USD pair in a wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200) , 1.3370 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
                          In an alternative scenario, a return to the zone below 1.2625 will indicate the resumption of the bearish trend of GBP / USD. The current goal of the decline is the support level of 1.2000 (2017 lows and the Fibonacci level of 0%).
                          So far, a positive impetus prevails, however, short positions below the support level of 1.2625 will again be preferred.
                          Support Levels: 1.2800, 1.2700, 1.2625, 1.2550, 1.2470, 1.2400, 1.2200, 1.2100, 1.2000
                          Resistance Levels: 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3370

                          Trading Scenarios

                          Sell ​​Stop 1.2870. Stop-Loss 1.3020. Take-Profit 1.2800, 1.2700, 1.2625, 1.2550, 1.2470, 1.2400, 1.2200, 1.2100, 1.2000
                          Buy Stop 1.3020. Stop-Loss 1.2870. Take-Profit 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3370


                          *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                          Comment


                          • EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
                            10/23/2019

                            Amid the weakening US dollar, EUR / USD was able to grow significantly this month, reaching on Monday a new 10-week high near 1.1180. However, below the key resistance levels of 1.1150 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 1.1200 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), a long-term bearish trend remains.
                            The small steps taken earlier this month towards a ceasefire in a trade war between China and the US are not enough to ease the uncertainties that are holding back the global economy, and uncertainty has reappeared on the Brexit issue.
                            In this regard, the role of the dollar as a protective asset is once again becoming relevant.
                            In September, the ECB lowered its key interest rate, which was already in negative territory, and resumed its bond purchase program. The ECB leaders promised to keep these measures in force, "until we see that the inflation prospects are stably in line" with reaching the target level.
                            Market participants are preparing for tomorrow's ECB meeting, which will be the last under the leadership of Mario Draghi. From November 1, this post will take Christine Lagarde.
                            The ECB's decision on rates will be published on Thursday at 11:45 (GMT), and a press conference following the ECB meeting will begin at 12:30.
                            As previously published data showed, the annual inflation rate in the Eurozone in September slowed to 0.9%, a minimum of almost three years. The growth of the Eurozone economy has been weakening since the beginning of 2018, which forces the ECB to actively support the European economy, lowering the interest rate and expanding quantitative easing.
                            Slowing European economies and soft ECB policies further weaken the euro.
                            In general, the long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains, which speaks in favor of sales of this currency pair.
                            The breakdown of the short-term support level of 1.1094 will be a signal for building up short positions.
                            Support Levels: 1.1094, 1.1047, 1.1015, 1.1000, 1.0970, 1.0900, 1.0850
                            Resistance Levels: 1.1150, 1.1200

                            Trading Recommendations

                            Sell ​​by market. Sell ​​Limit 1.1150. Sell ​​Stop 1.1090. Stop-Loss 1.1220. Take-Profit 1.1047, 1.1015, 1.1000, 1.0970, 1.0900, 1.0850
                            Buy Stop 1.1220. Stop-Loss 1.1090. Take-Profit 1.1285, 1.1400


                            *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

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                            • S&P500: bullish trend remains valid
                              10/28/2019

                              After it became known about the progress in US-Chinese trade negotiations, growth in the US stock market accelerated.
                              The Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.6% on Friday to 26968.00 points.
                              The S&P 500 on Friday increased by 0.4% to 3021.00 points, and by the end of the week gained 1.2%.
                              According to the Ministry of Commerce of China, the trade representatives of the two countries "agreed to properly resolve key problems and confirmed that the technical consultations on some parts of the text of the agreement have basically been completed".
                              The positive news that the parties are completing preparations for the first stage of the trade transaction also provoked an increase in the yield of US treasury bonds.
                              US stock indexes remain positive ahead of the Fed meeting this week. The Fed is expected to cut rate by 0.25% to 1.75%.
                              Nevertheless, if Fed leaders signal that they will take a break to evaluate the results of the mitigation cycle, this can cause a sharp increase in volatility in the financial markets and lead to profit taking in long positions in the US stock market.
                              The market dynamics this week may also be affected by the meetings of the Bank of Japan and Bank of Canada, data from the US labor market and new corporate financial reports.
                              On Monday (at 12:30 GMT) data on wholesale stocks in the US for September will be released. Economists expect stocks up 0.3% from the previous month after rising 0.2% in August. The increase in stocks in warehouses reflects a slowdown in the economy and negatively affects the US dollar and the dynamics of US stock indexes.
                              If the data turn out to be better than the forecast, or lower than the previous value, this will provide additional support to the stock market and indices.
                              The S & P500 index maintains long-term positive dynamics, trading above the key support level of 2895.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). Long positions are preferred so far.
                              In an alternative scenario and after the breakdown of support levels of 2997.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 2972.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), S & P500 will go to support levels 2895.0, 2865.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the growth from December 2018 and marks 2335.0).
                              Further decline is unlikely. The long-term bullish trend of the US stock market remains.
                              Support Levels: 2997.0, 2972.0, 2920.0, 2895.0, 2865.0
                              Resistance Levels: 3029.0

                              Trading Recommendations

                              Sell ​​Stop 2970.0. Stop-Loss 3030.0. Goals 2920.0, 2895.0, 2865.0
                              Buy Stop 3030.0. Stop-Loss 2970.0. Goals 3100.0, 3200.0


                              *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

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                              • USD/CAD: Fed and Bank of Canada rate decisions
                                10/30/2019

                                Futures on the DXY dollar index is trading at the beginning of today's European session near 97.42, 18 pips below the opening price of the current trading week and 188 pips below 99.30, near which it was trading earlier this month, when the DXY reached its highest level since March 2017 year.
                                And yet, despite the decline, the long-term positive dynamics of the US dollar remains. The US economy growth rates, despite signs of a slowdown, is still higher than in other developed countries. The US continues to outperform other developed economies in terms of GDP growth, which creates the preconditions for maintaining demand for US assets and the dollar.
                                Today (at 12:30 GMT) will be published annual data on US GDP. According to the forecast, GDP in the 3rd quarter grew by 1.7% after rising by 2.0% in the previous 2nd quarter.
                                And at 18:00 (GMT), the Fed will publish its decision on interest rates. It is widely expected that the Fed will lower its base rate by 0.25% to 1.75%. However, market participants do not have full clarity regarding further plans of the Fed.
                                Therefore, the attention of financial market participants will be focused on the Fed press conference, which will begin at 18:30 (GMT). If Fed leaders signal that they are likely to take a break in a further rate cut in order to evaluate the results of the ongoing mitigation cycle, this could trigger a fix for short positions and a dollar growth.
                                If the rhetoric of the accompanying statement by the Fed is soft, then the growth of stock indices and the decline in the dollar may continue.
                                At 14:00, the Bank of Canada will publish its decision on the rate. Bank of Canada officials said last month that the economy and labor market are in good shape despite escalating trade conflicts. This creates the prerequisites for the Bank of Canada to be able to leave its key rate unchanged at the current meeting, at the same level of 1.75%.
                                Despite the decline, the long-term positive dynamics of the USD / CAD pair remains. The pair is trading above the key and long-term support level of 1.2900 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
                                A break into the zone above the resistance level 1.3230 (ЕМА144, ЕМА200 on the daily chart) will resume the bullish trend of USD / CAD and direct the pair towards recent local maxima near the resistance level 1.3345.
                                The first signal to resume purchases will be the breakdown of resistance levels 1.3100 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.3138 (September lows).
                                Support Levels: 1.3050, 1.3015, 1.2900
                                Resistance Levels: 1.3100, 1.3138, 1.3185, 1.3230, 1.3300, 1.3345, 1.3380

                                Trading Scenarios

                                Sell ​​Stop 1.3040. Stop-Loss 1.3110. Take-Profit 1.3015, 1.2900
                                Buy Stop 1.3110. Stop-Loss 1.3040. Take-Profit 1.3138, 1.3185, 1.3230, 1.3300, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520



                                *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

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