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  • TifiaFX
    replied
    XAG / USD: demand for precious metals declined
    16/08/2017

    Current dynamics

    After the tension in relations between North Korea and the United States declined and against the background of positive data on retail sales received from the US, the dollar regains its positions in the foreign exchange market, and the demand for safe haven assets, including precious metals, is declining.
    A few hours after China supported sanctions against Pyongyang imposed by the United States, North Korea refused to threaten to attack the United States.
    As reported yesterday by the US Department of Commerce, July data on retail sales exceeded expectations, an increase of 0.6% against the forecast (0.4%). Data on retail sales supported the further strengthening of the dollar and encouraged the buyers of the dollar, putting on its further growth.
    Today, the focus of traders will be the publication (18:00 GMT) of the protocol from the July Fed meeting to understand the prospects for monetary policy in the US.
    In recent weeks, Fed officials have talked about the weakness of inflation and uncertainty in fiscal policy. Published on Friday, inflation data increased fears that the price dynamics did not meet the expectations of the Fed. The consumer price index (CPI) in July rose by 0.1% compared to June, and by 1.7% compared to July of the previous year (the target level of annual inflation established by the Federal Reserve is 2%).
    The protocols, apparently, will also contain information on the continuation of the discussion on inflation, which remains weak and, in the opinion of some leaders of the Fed, may become a hindrance to further tightening of monetary policy in the US.
    This year, the Fed will hold three more meetings devoted to monetary policy: September 19 - 20, October 31 - November 1, and December 12 - 13. After the September and December meetings, the Fed will publish its new economic forecasts, while Fed Chairman Janet Yellen will hold a press conference.
    According to the CME Group, investors are taking into account the 53% chance of raising the Fed's interest rates in the price this year. Before the release of data on retail sales, they estimated such a probability of 37%.
    As is known, in the conditions of increase in the rate the price for precious metals, including silver, falls, as the cost of its acquisition and storage is growing.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support and resistance levels
    The pair XAG / USD was unable to develop an uptrend above the resistance level of 17.22 (August highs and the top line of the descending channel on the daily chart). Having broken the key level 17.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), XAG / USD is falling deeper into the descending channel on the daily chart.
    At the moment, XAG / USD is trading at the support level of 16.58 (EMA200, EMA144 on the 4-hour chart). A break of this level will signal the continuation of the downward movement.
    While XAG / USD is below the level of 17.00, the downside dynamics prevails.
    In case of breakdown of the local support level of 16.12 (August lows), the pair XAG / USD will go into the downward channel on the daily chart towards its lower boundary with the targets of 15.60, 14.90, 14.30 (July lows), 13.65 (minimum of the global wave of the pair XAG / USD decline September 2012).
    Support levels: 16.58, 16.45, 16.12, 15.60, 15.25, 14.90, 14.30, 13.65
    Levels of resistance: 16.80, 17.00, 17.22

    Trading scenarios

    Sell Stop 16.55. Stop-Loss 16.70. Take-Profit 16.45, 16.38, 16.12, 15.60, 15.25, 14.90, 14.30
    Buy Stop 16.70. Stop-Loss 16.55. Take-Profit 16.80, 17.00, 17.22




    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

    Leave a comment:


  • TifiaFX
    replied
    GBP/USD: producer price growth slowed
    15/08/2017
    Current dynamics

    The consumer price index (CPI) of the UK in July compared with July last year increased by 2.6% (the forecast was + 2.7%). Thus, according to the data presented today, in July the annual rate of consumer inflation did not change with respect to June. But the annual growth rate of purchasing prices of producers in July slowed sharply - to 6.5% from 10% in June.
    As a result of the sharp weakening of the pound after the referendum on Brexit in May, consumer price inflation accelerated to a maximum of 2.9% in mid-2013. Against the background of the weakening of the pound, the purchasing power of the British sharply decreased, which sharply limited their spending.
    Retail sales are one of the main "fillers" of British GDP. The slowdown in inflation favorably influences the British economy, which is oriented primarily toward the domestic market. Improving the situation in the service sector for consumers, which has recovered due to strong retail sales, contributes to GDP growth in the UK. So, according to official data released last Wednesday, in the second quarter, the British economy grew by 0.3% after rising 0.2% in the 1st quarter.
    The pound declined after the publication of today's data on inflation, but the British stock index FTSE rose, indicating the favorable impact of slowing inflation on the growth of the British economy. Yet the main risk for the UK economy remains Brexit.
    For today (at 12:30 GMT) it is planned to publish important data from the US - inflation indicators for July (retail sales), as well as import-export price indices.
    High level of retail sales will strengthen the US dollar. Forecast: + 0.4% (against -0.2% in June).
    The weak values of the indicators will put pressure on the dollar, which is now recovering in the foreign exchange market after it became known that the DPRK leader Kim Jong-un decided not to attack Guam after consulting with the military command. This was also facilitated by China's decision to support the sanctions against Pyongyang imposed by the United States.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support and resistance levels
    The pair GBP / USD broke through the important short-term support levels of 1.3000 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.2960 (EMA50 on the daily chart, the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart) and is rapidly declining to the key support level 1.2860 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
    Break of this level will speak about the completion of the upward correction and will strengthen the risks of GBP / USD returning to a downtrend.
    The alternative scenario is connected with the return of GBP / USD to the zone above the level of 1.3000 and the resumption of growth. The closest target in this case will be resistance level 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the decline of the GBP / USD pair in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200). Levels of 1.3300 (the upper limit of the channel on the weekly chart), 1.3460 (July and September highs) will be the next target.
    So far, the downward trend is dominating, as evidenced by the indicators OsMA and Stochastics, which on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily and weekly charts turned to short positions.
    Support levels: 1.2860, 1.2800
    Resistance levels: 1.2960, 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3460

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 1.2850. Stop-Loss 1.2910. Take-Profit 1.2815, 1.2765, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2590, 1.2550, 1.2365
    Buy Stop 1.2910. Stop-Loss 1.2850. Take-Profit 1.2960, 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3460




    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

    Leave a comment:


  • TifiaFX
    replied
    XAU/USD: the dollar regains positions
    14/08/2017
    Current dynamics

    Friday's weak inflation data in the US, as well as an escalation in tensions between the US and North Korea, caused the dollar to fall on Friday and the demand for safe haven assets was growing.
    As reported by the US Labor Department, in July, consumer prices rose by 0.1% (the forecast was + 0.2%). The index pointed to a worsening of the outlook for price growth in the US, which weakened expectations of an increase in interest rates by the Fed this year.
    At the same time, US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that his previously voiced threats to reply North Korea with "fire and fury" apparently sounded "not tough enough." And on Saturday Donald Trump said that the United States is ready to strike North Korea, if it does not stop threatening the United States.
    As a result, on Friday, demand for gold continued to remain at high levels.
    On Friday, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Robert Kaplan, said that the current level of interest rates is acceptable. Another Fed spokesman, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Neil Kashkari, said that the Fed should wait with higher rates until inflation approaches the target of 2%. "We still can not reach the target level of inflation, and the growth of wages remains slow," Kashkari said.
    Now investors expect a rate hike in December with a probability of 38% (on Friday the probability was estimated at 47%), according to the CME Group.
    Gold, as you know, does not bring interest income. But it is growing in price in periods of low interest rates and political or economic instability in the world.
    So far, the demand for it is supported, mainly against the backdrop of domestic political instability in the United States and the tension in relations with the DPRK. As the geopolitical tensions decrease, investors' attention will again shift to economic indicators.
    Still, the risk of an increase in the US interest rate in December, despite the low level of inflation, exists. Strong labor market in the US indicates a stable state of the economy in the country.
    Tomorrow, investors will focus on the publication of inflation indicators for the United States. At 12:30 (GMT) are published retail sales indices for July, which are a leading indicator, and indices of export-import prices. Forecast: retail sales increased by 0.3% (against -0.2% in June), which should support the dollar quotes.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support and resistance levels
    With the opening of today's trading day, the dollar is recovering its positions in the foreign exchange market, and gold is getting cheaper.
    Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts of the pair XAU / USD turned to short positions.
    Probably further decline to support levels 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016), 1273.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
    In the case of breakdown of these levels and the development of a downward correction, it is likely that the support level of 1260.00 (the bottom line of the uplink and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) will decrease to the support level.
    The breakdown of support levels 1248.00 (Fibonacci 50.0%), 1244.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will provoke further decline of the pair XAU / USD and its return to the downtrend.
    The alternative scenario is connected with the breakdown of the resistance level of 1295.00 (the highs of June and the year and the upper line of the range located between the levels of 1185.00 and 1295.00) and further growth.
    So far, against the background of the dollar's recovery, the downward short-term dynamics is dominating.
    Support levels: 1277.00, 1273.00, 1260.00, 1248.00, 1244.00, 1229.00, 1220.00, 1205.00, 1185.00
    Levels of resistance: 1295.00

    Trading scenarios

    Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1285.00. Take-Profit 1277.00, 1273.00, 1260.00, 1248.00, 1244.00
    Buy Stop 1285.00. Stop-Loss 1279.00. Take-Profit 1290.00, 1295.00




    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

    Leave a comment:


  • TifiaFX
    replied
    Brent: World oil supply grows
    11/08/2017
    Overview and dynamics

    As reported today by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the world oil supply in July increased by 520,000 barrels a day, even despite the arrangements in OPEC. Growth in the supply of oil has been observed for 3 consecutive months. The supply of oil in the world increased in July to 98.16 million barrels per day, which is by 500,000 barrels per day more than in the same period last year. OPEC oil production in July increased by 230,000 barrels per day and reached 32.84 million barrels per day, the high of 2017. The increase in OPEC production of the cartel is primarily due to the increase in production in Libya and Nigeria, which are exempt from participation in the transaction.
    The investors' skepticism about the effectiveness of OPEC measures is maintained due to poor compliance with the agreements on the reduction of oil production. All this imposes a negative imprint on the dynamics of oil prices.
    Prices fell on Thursday, despite the earlier data from the US Energy Ministry on oil reserves in the US (Wednesday 14:30 GMT). According to the report of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the United States, US oil inventories fell 6.451 million barrels last week, which was the sixth consecutive week.
    Today we are waiting for the publication at 17:00 (GMT) of the report of the oilfield service company Baker Hughes on the number of active drilling platforms in the US, which is an important indicator of the activity of the oil sector of the US economy and significantly affects the quotes of oil prices.
    The US successfully used the situation with a rise in prices against OPEC actions last year and increased production by 750,000 barrels a day to 9.3 million barrels per day, the highest since summer 2015. In fact, by the efforts of the US alone, more than a third of the reduced production was offset.
    At the moment, there are 765 active drilling rigs in the USA. If the number of installations increases again, this will negatively affect oil prices.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support and resistance levels
    The price of Brent crude oil was unable to develop an upward trend above the resistance level of 52.90 (EMA144 on the weekly chart) on Thursday and the second day is going down.
    While the price is below the short-term resistance level of 51.85 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), the downside dynamics will increase, and the downside correction target will be the support level of 50.70 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart, EMA50 on the weekly chart, as well as Fibonacci 61, 8% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the mark of 27.00).
    Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily charts went to the side of sellers.
    If the price breaks through the key support level of 50.70, then the decline will accelerate, risking again moving into a bearish trend. The targets then will be support levels 49.70, 48.75, 48.00, 46.20 (50% Fibonacci level), 44.50 (lows of the year). The more distant goal is the level 41.70 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% and the lower boundary of the descending channel on the weekly chart).
    The scenario for growth implies breakdown of the resistance level of 52.90 and an increase to the resistance level of 54.75 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and May highs). The signal to growth will be the fixing of the price above the level of 51.85.
    Support levels: 51.00, 50.70, 50.00, 49.70, 48.75, 48.00, 47.70, 46.20, 45.50, 44.50, 41.70
    Resistance levels: 51.85, 52.90, 54.00, 54.75

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 51.10. Stop-Loss 52.10. Take-Profit 50.70, 50.00, 49.70, 48.75, 48.00, 46.20, 44.50
    Buy Stop 52.10. Stop-Loss 51.10. Take-Profit 52.90, 54.00, 54.75


    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

    Leave a comment:


  • TifiaFX
    replied
    NZD / USD: monetary policy has not changed
    10/08/2017
    Current dynamics

    As expected, the RBNZ kept the current interest rate in New Zealand at the same level of 1.75%. The RBNZ stated that against the backdrop of "many uncertainties," monetary policy "will remain soft in the foreseeable future," but "can be adjusted accordingly." For a stable recovery of the New Zealand economy and rising inflation of the value of traded goods, "a lower New Zealand dollar rate is needed."
    In response to the publication of the decision on the rate of the pair, the New Zealand dollar / dollar briefly jumped to 0.7370 from 0.7340, but then declined during the Asian session, and at the beginning of the European session it was already trading near the 0.7270 mark.
    Commodity currencies, including the New Zealand dollar, continue to decline in the foreign exchange market amid the continuing geopolitical tensions in the Asian region. The second day in a row, North Korea is threatening the United States. On Tuesday, the media reported that the North Korean army is "carefully studying" the operational plan for a missile strike on Guam. "The United States will be the first to experience the power of strategic weapons," the DPRK declared. US President Donald Trump demanded that North Korea "stop further threats" against the US, saying that the answer would be "the fire and the rage that the world has not seen so far." This time, North Korea threatened to "shell out from all sides" the territory of Guam in the coming weeks.
    As a result of its 10-day decline, the pair NZD / USD completely leveled its July growth. According to economists, "the current rate is more appropriate to short-term fundamental factors" and "approached its average value over the past year."
    As the geopolitical situation in the Asian region stabilizes, the New Zealand dollar will be able to maintain its position in the foreign exchange market due to rising commodity prices, also receiving support from long-term investors who prefer safe long-term investments. Preservation of the current interest rate at 1.75% in the long term will also contribute to this.
    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

    Support and resistance levels
    The pair NZD / USD broke through an important short-term support level of 0.7350 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and remains under pressure. Today, the NZD / USD pair has reached an important support level of 0.7285 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) and is developing a downward movement to the level of support
    0.7240 (Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline of the pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014, the low of December 2016).
    Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers, signaling a strong negative impulse.
    While NZD / USD is trading above the support level of 0.7150 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the upward dynamics is maintained. In the case of breakdown at the level of 0.7150, a further decline to support levels of 0.6860 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% and a lower limit of the range located between the levels of 0.7550 and 0.6860) is possible. At the level of 0.6860 are also the minimums of December 2016 and May 2017. A break at the level of 0.6860 will mean the end of the upward correction, which began in September 2015, and a return to the downward trend.
    The alternative scenario is to return to the zone above the level of 0.7350 and resume growth towards the annual maximum and the resistance level of 0.7550 (50% Fibonacci level). Meanwhile, it is too early to talk about long positions on the NZD / USD pair. Only a breakdown at 0.7550 would mean the end of the global bearish trend.
    Support levels: 0.7240, 0.7150
    Resistance levels: 0.7285, 0.7350, 0.7418, 0.7455, 0.7500, 0.7550

    Trading Scenarios

    Sell Stop 0.7250. Stop-Loss 0.7310. Take-Profit 0.7200, 0.7150
    Buy Stop 0.7310. Stop-Loss 0.7250. Take-Profit 0.7418, 0.7455, 0.7500, 0.7550, 0.7600



    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

    Leave a comment:

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