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  • XAU/USD: Trading Scenarios
    11/01/2019

    The dollar is falling again, and gold is rising in price after the Fed meeting this week. As you know, the Fed again lowered the rate, for the third time this year, to the level of 1.75%, although it did not give clear signals aimed at further easing monetary policy.
    Market participants were also encouraged by the expectations of an early conclusion of a trade agreement between the United States and China. At the same time, investors fear that it may take longer than expected to conclude a trade agreement between the two countries that have the largest economies in the world, and disappointing macro data continues to come from various parts of the world with the world's largest economies.
    Today, market participants will focus on publishing data from the US labor market at 12:30 (GMT). US jobs are expected to grow by 89,000 in October, after rising 136,000 in September and 130,000 in August. If the US Department of Labor reports a significant increase in the number of jobs in October, observer concern about the possible impact of a slowdown in global economy for the US could weaken. However, if the report on the labor market coincides with the forecast or is worse than it, then this will further strengthen investors' doubts about the stability of the American economy in the context of international trade conflicts.
    This will be another reason for avoiding risks and buying protective assets, including gold.
    At the beginning of the European session on Friday, XAU / USD is trading above the important short-term support level of 1498.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and on the 1-hour chart) and above the support level at 1485.00 (Fibonacci level 50% of the correction to the wave of decline from September 2011 and mark 1920.00).
    The XAU / USD maintains long-term positive dynamics, and the fundamental background creates the prerequisites for maintaining demand for gold and further growth of XAU / USD towards long-term and absolute highs near the level of 1920.00 dollars per ounce.
    In an alternative scenario, the signal for sales will be a breakdown of the support levels of 1498.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and on the 1-hour chart), 1485.00 (Fibonacci level of 50% of the correction to the decline wave from September 2011 and the mark of 1920.00).
    In this case, a decline of the XAU / USD to support levels of 1408.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1380.00 (Fibonacci level of 38.2% and highs of 2016), 1368.00 (highs of 2018) is possible.
    Nevertheless, a positive impulse and a tendency to further growth of XAU / USD prevail so far. Above the support levels of 1498.00, 1485.00, long positions are preferred.
    It is also worth recalling again that today at 12:30 (GMT) a sharp increase in volatility is expected, especially if the data on the US labor market will significantly differ from the forecast values. Probably the most cautious investors will prefer to stay out of the market during this period of time.
    Support levels: 1498.00, 1485.00, 1474.00, 1452.00, 1440.00, 1408.00, 1380.00, 1368.00, 1310.00, 1253.00
    Resistance Levels: 1520.00, 1535.00, 1555.00, 1585.00

    Trading Recommendations

    Sell ​​Stop 1473.00. Stop-Loss 1522.00. Take-Profit 1452.00, 1440.00, 1408.00, 1380.00, 1368.00, 1310.00, 1253.00
    Buy Stop 1522.00. Stop-Loss 1473.00. Take-Profit 1535.00, 1555.00, 1585.00, 1600.00


    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

    Comment


    • DJIA: trade negotiations support buyers
      11/05/2019

      In the middle of last month, DJIA again approached the level of absolute and annual highs near the level of 27400.0. However, for the breakdown of this level of resistance, the positive impulse was not enough and the DJIA fell again.
      Market participants continue to follow any comments by the US and Chinese authorities regarding trade negotiations.
      The deterioration of prospects in this direction may again bring down stock indices. Conversely, a warming or easing in trade disputes between the US and China will support stock indices.
      So, a new portion of positive information about the course of trade negotiations, which arrived at the beginning of this week, gave new strength to the bulls in the US stock market.
      As Myron Brilliant, Executive Vice President of the US Chamber of Commerce, said last Monday, "the parties have really come close to an agreement". There is also information that representatives of the United States and China are actively considering the abolition of some duties. Moreover, it is expected that the US-China trade agreement of the "first phase" will be signed in November.
      The Fed’s propensity to maintain soft policy, as well as the revival of economic activity in the US, which is signaled by exceeding expectations GDP data for the 3rd quarter and the improvement of the US labor market in October, according to data presented last week, are also of positive importance for American stock indices.
      Last Monday, the DJIA price broke through the resistance level of 27400.0 and rushed up, maintaining a positive trend, which speaks in favor of DJIA purchases.
      In an alternative scenario, after the breakdown of the short-term support level of 27150.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) and in case of resumption of decline, the targets will be support levels 26460.0 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 26260.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
      Above these support levels, there is the long-term positive dynamics of US stock indices and the DJIA index, including.
      From the news for today it is worth paying attention to the publication (at 15:00 GMT) of the index of business activity (ISM) in the US services sector, which assesses the state of the services sector in the economy.
      The growth rate and the result above 50 are considered as a positive factor for US stock indices. At the same time, a relative decrease in the indicator or data worse than the forecast may have a short-term negative impact on the US indices. Forecast: 53.4 in October (against 52.6 in September).
      Support Levels: 27400.0, 27150.0, 26900.0, 26700.0, 26460.0, 26260.0, 25270.0, 24600.0
      Resistance Levels: 27600.0, 28000.0

      Trading Scenarios

      Buy Stop 27610.0. Stop-Loss 27350.0. Take-Profit 28000.0
      Sell ​​Stop 27350.0. Stop-Loss 27610.0. Take-Profit 27150.0, 26900.0, 26700.0, 26460.0, 26260.0


      *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

      Comment


      • WTI Oil: upward correction is near completion
        11/08/2019
        Current Dynamics

        Despite a report by the US Department of Energy on Wednesday, which pointed to a significant increase in US oil reserves (+7.929 million barrels) last week, oil prices rose.
        The increase in prices was accompanied by an increase in the global and American stock markets.
        All three major US stock indexes hit record highs this week thanks to a robust US labor market, hopes for a US-China trade dispute resolving and a successful corporate reporting season.
        WTI oil prices rose this week to $ 57.80 per barrel (against $ 54.06 per barrel at the beginning of the month).
        Nevertheless, the optimism of investors is gradually dying away, and we again see a decline in oil prices.
        At the beginning of the European session, WTI crude oil is trading near 56.10.
        Despite verbal agreements that gave hope for a postponement of the introduction of new duties, and a statement by Chinese representatives about their readiness to remove all available duties, trade disagreements between the United States and China remain. The United States has not yet responded to a statement by the Chinese side about the readiness to remove all duties. The ongoing trade war between Beijing and Washington could again lead to lower oil demand.
        On Friday, oil market participants will pay attention to the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of the weekly report of the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes on the number of active drilling rigs in the United States. Previous reports showed a decrease in the number of active oil platforms in the United States to 691 units at the moment (from 800 units at the beginning of June and 742 units at the beginning of September). If the report again indicates a decrease in the number of such installations, then this may give a short-term positive impetus to prices.
        Nevertheless, talking about breaking the bearish trend of oil is still premature.
        The breakdown of the next important support level of 55.40 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart, Fibonacci level 38.2% of the upward correction to the fall from the highs of the last few years near 76.80 to the support level near 42.15) will increase the pressure on the price towards its further reduction with a long-term goal at the support level of 42.15 (Fibonacci level of 0% and December 2018 lows).
        In the case of the resumption of positive dynamics in world stock indices and growth in the oil market, a breakdown of the local resistance level of 57.80 will strengthen the bullish momentum and direct the price to the resistance level of 60.90 (July highs) and further to the levels of 63.50, 64.40.
        In the meantime, a negative impulse prevails below the resistance level of 57.00; short positions are preferred.
        Support Levels: 55.40, 54.00, 53.00, 51.30, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
        Resistance Levels: 57.00, 57.80, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

        Trading Recommendations

        Sell ​​Stop 55.90. Stop-Loss 56.70. Take-Profit 55.40, 54.00, 53.00, 51.30, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
        Buy Stop 56.70. Stop-Loss 55.90. Take-Profit 57.00, 57.80, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50
        081119-WTI-D.png

        *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

        Comment


        • NZD/USD: NZD dynamics on the eve of the RBNZ meeting
          11/11/2019

          On Wednesday, the next RBNZ meeting will take place, and the decision on rates will be published at 01:00 (GMT).
          In August, the RBNZ cut the rate at once by 50 bp to 1.00%, explaining this decision by the aggravation of the trade war between the US and China and the loss of momentum in the New Zealand economy. RBNZ executives are inclined to further soften monetary policy, believing that wage growth in the country remains weak, inflation expectations are falling, and low levels of business confidence indicate a slowdown in hiring and wage growth.
          It is widely expected that the rate will be reduced at this meeting by 0.25%, to the level of 0.75%.
          The RBNZ press conference will begin on Wednesday at 02:00 (GMT).
          Probably, the head of the RBNZ Adrian Orr will reaffirm the bank’s penchant for soft monetary policy, which will preserve the pressure on the New Zealand currency.
          New Zealand's export-oriented economy suffers greatly from a slowdown in the global economy and a decline in purchases of New Zealand products, including by China. Meanwhile, optimism and risk appetite of investors are gradually dying out. Although China announced an agreement to abolish duties, U.S. President Donald Trump said last Friday that the United States did not promise to abolish existing customs duties on Chinese goods.
          Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar strengthened, and NZD / USD rose in the first half of today's trading day, rising to a short-term resistance level of 0.6372 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
          Nevertheless, expectations of a lower interest rate of the RBNZ and the bank's propensity for soft policy will restrain NZD / USD and the New Zealand dollar from further growth.
          Below the resistance level of 0.6525 (EMA200 on the daily chart), short positions remain preferred. The breakdown of the local support level of 0.6322 will be a signal for resuming NZD / USD sales with the immediate target at 0.6260 (Fibonacci level 0% and minimums of the global wave of pair decline from the level of 0.8820).
          Support Levels: 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100
          Resistance Levels: 0.6372, 0.6390, 0.6435, 0.6475, 0.6525

          Trading Scenarios

          Sell ​​by market. Stop-Loss 0.6410. Take-Profit 0.6322, 0.6300, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100
          Buy Stop 0.6410. Stop-Loss 0.6360. Take-Profit 0.6435, 0.6475, 0.6525


          *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

          Comment

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