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  • Brent: price drop is likely to continue
    30/01/2020
    Current Dynamics

    After the price of Brent crude oil soared earlier this month as a result of a sharp increase in tension in the Middle East and reached $71.95 a barrel, a sharp drop in oil prices began later. The driver of the "price hike south" was the spread of coronavirus in China, threatening to go into a pandemic.
    The number of cases in China exceeded 6,000, and more than 130 died.
    At the beginning of today's European session, Brent crude is trading at $58.60 per barrel. Information from the US Department of Energy put additional pressure on oil quotes. According to the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy, Wednesday, crude oil inventories grew by 3.548 million barrels last week (forecast implied an increase of 482,000 barrels).
    A decline in demand from China and an increase in US oil reserves will put pressure on US oil producers.
    The price of Brent crude oil broke through the key support level of 63.90 (EMA200 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level 38.2% of the downward correction in the wave of price growth from the level near the level of 27.10 to the highs of October 2018 near the level of 86.60 dollars per barrel) and continued to decline.
    A breakdown of the support level of 58.50 and a decrease into the area below the support level of 56.90 (Fibonacci level of 50%) will mean a break in the bull trend and the resumption of the global downtrend. In case of further decline, the immediate goal will be the support level of 50.00 (Fibonacci level of 50%).
    There is no convincing evidence that the dynamics of oil prices will change significantly in the near future. A further drop in commodity prices, including oil, is likely.
    Only a return to the zone above the resistance level of 63.90 will again make long positions relevant.
    Support Levels: 58.50, 56.90, 55.00
    Resistance Levels: 60.40, 61.70, 63.00, 63.90, 66.00, 67.50, 69.70, 71.95, 72.60

    Trading Recommendations

    Sell ​​by market. Stop-Loss 59.50. Take-Profit 56.90, 55.00
    Buy Stop 60.50. Stop-Loss 58.20. Take-Profit 61.70, 63.00, 63.90, 66.00, 67.50, 69.70, 71.95, 72.60


    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

    Comment


    • XAU/USD: Coronavirus pushes gold quotes up
      31/01/2020

      The "first phase" trade agreement between the United States and China, signed two weeks ago, eased tensions in trade relations between the two countries and gave a new positive impetus to stock indices. However, other factors may adversely affect economic growth in 2020.
      A new negative factor of a global scale again threatens the global economy. This time, investor caution is fueled by fears about the spread of coronavirus in China. Representatives of the World Health Organization (WHO) have already expressed significant concern about the possibility of the spread of the virus outside of China.
      In this situation, the demand for protective assets, including gold, is growing. A strong positive momentum remains, pushing gold quotes up. In case of breakdown of the nearest resistance level at 1585.00 (April 2013 highs and Fibonacci level 61.8% of the correction to the wave of decline from September 2011 and the mark of 1920.00), the XAU / USD pair will go towards the upper border of the upward channel on the weekly chart, passing near the mark of 1620.00.
      In an alternative scenario and in case of breakdown of the short-term support level of 1569.00 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), XAU / USD will resume the decline with targets at the support levels of 1484.00 (Fibonacci level of 50%), 1456.00 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). A further decline in XAU / USD is unlikely, and, in the current situation, long positions are preferred.
      Support Levels: 1569.00, 1555.00, 1542.00, 1520.00, 1510.00, 1484.00, 1456.00, 1450.00
      Resistance Levels: 1585.00, 1600.00, 1620.00

      Trading recommendations

      Sell ​​Stop 1568.00. Stop-Loss 1586.00. Take-Profit 1555.00, 1542.00, 1520.00, 1510.00, 1484.00, 1456.00, 1450.00
      Buy Stop 1586.00. Stop-Loss 1568.00. Take-Profit 1600.00, 1620.00


      *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

      Comment


      • AUD/USD: on the eve of the RBA meeting
        03/02/2020

        The threat of coronavirus spreading outside of China, threatening to grow into an epidemic, brought down global stock indices last week. The World Health Organization last Thursday declared an outbreak of coronavirus infection an emergency of international importance. The number of confirmed coronavirus infected in China over the weekend has grown to nearly 15,000, the number of victims is already 305.
        Given the size of China's GDP, as well as the possible consequences for other countries, the outbreak of the virus seems to be a significant enough reason for concern about the growth prospects of the world economy for the next few months.
        On Tuesday, the RB of Australia makes a decision on the interest rate (the decision on the rate will be published at 03:30 GMT). Probably, the RBA will not yet change its current monetary policy, keeping the rate at a record level of 0.75%. However, this decision will not provide tangible support to the Australian dollar. The risks to Australian economy and the implications for Australian commodity and tourism demand are likely to continue to put pressure on weak growth prospects.
        Thus, the Australian dollar and the pair AUD / USD are likely to remain under pressure with a tendency to further weaken and reduce, which will speak in favor of their sales.
        At the beginning of today's European session, AUD / USD is trading near the 0.6690 mark, 10 points above the intraday low of 0.6680. In case of breakdown of the support levels of 0.6680 and 0.6670 (2019 lows and the Fibonacci level of 0%) and the resumption of decline, the goals will be the support levels of 0.6600, 0.6500. The distant target is located at support levels of 0.6260, 0.6000 (lows of 2008 - 2009).
        The negative dynamics of AUD / USD prevails, making short positions on the pair more preferable.
        Support Levels: 0.6680, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300
        Resistance Levels: 0.6755, 0.6763, 0.6802, 0.6820, 0.6837, 0.6869, 0.6900, 0.6935

        Trading Recommendations

        Sell ​​Stop 0.6675. Stop-Loss 0.6730. Take-Profit 0.6600, 0.6300, 0.6260
        Buy Stop 0.6730. Stop-Loss 0.6675. Take-Profit 0.6755, 0.6763, 0.6802, 0.6820, 0.6837, 0.6869, 0.6900


        *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

        Comment


        • S&P 500: indices rise again after falling last week
          05/02/2020

          US stock indexes are actively recovering after falling last week.
          Investors' concerns about the spread of coronavirus in China have declined, and investors returned to assessing the “first phase” trade agreement between the United States and China, signed last month.
          Larry Kudlow, director of the U.S. Presidential National Economic Council, said on Tuesday that the impact of the spread of coronavirus is likely to delay, but not cancel, the support for the US economy expected from the first-phase trade agreement between the USA and China. According to Kudlow, in the longer term, the impact of a virus outbreak will be minimal.
          At the opening of today's European session, futures for major US stock indexes rose sharply.
          On Wednesday, the S&P500 rises for the third day in a row after falling last week and is trading at the beginning of the European session near 3325.0 mark, near the absolute record high reached in December at 3335.0.
          S&P500 maintains long-term positive dynamics, trading above key support levels of 3050.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 3100.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the growth since December 2018 and mark 2335.0) in the upward channels on the daily and weekly charts. Their upper border runs near 3370.0. This mark is likely to be the immediate goal of index growth.
          Today in the period from 13:15 to 15:00 (GMT) a block of important macro statistics for the United States will be published. Of most interest will probably be the ADP report on private sector employment. US private sector employment growth is expected in January by +156,000. This is lower than the December figure (+202,000 employees), however, it is also a strong indicator of a labor market, which also indicates the stability of the US economy, which continues to grow amid the risks of a slowdown in the global economy.
          Positive dynamics prevail, pushing indices to new records. Above the support levels 3276.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 3250.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), long positions are preferred.
          Support Levels: 3276.0, 3250.0, 3180.0, 3100.0, 3050.0, 3025.0, 2955.0
          Resistance Levels: 3335.0, 3370.0

          Trading Recommendations

          Sell ​​Stop 3270.0. Stop-Loss 3337.0. Targets 3250.0, 3180.0, 3100.0, 3050.0
          Buy Stop 3337.0. Stop-Loss 3270.0. Goals 3350.0, 3370.0, 3400.0


          *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

          Comment


          • Brent: negative dynamics prevail
            06/02/2020

            As a result of the sharp increase in tension in the Middle East after the assassination of Iranian General Suleymani as a result of a U.S. airstrike at a Baghdad airport, the price of Brent crude rose sharply earlier last month, reaching $ 71.95 per barrel.
            In the future, in the course of reducing the degree of tension in the Middle East, the price also began to decline sharply. The outbreak of coronavirus in China has become a strong negative driver for quotations of oil and other commodities.
            The price of Brent crude oil broke through a key support level of 63.60 (EMA200 on the daily chart) and an important support level of 63.90 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the downward correction in the wave of rising prices from a level near the level of 27.10 to the highs of October 2018 near the mark of 86.60 dollars per barrel) and continued to decline.
            Investor sentiment improved slightly on Wednesday after media reports that a university in China had found a method for treating coronavirus, which was also reflected in quotes for oil and other commodities. The meeting of OPEC and its allies also supported prices. Leading oil producers may decide to further reduce their production to offset the decline in demand caused by the coronavirus.
            Nevertheless, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy announced on Wednesday an increase in oil reserves by 3.355 million barrels last week, higher than the forecast of +3.0 million barrels. U.S. oil production is still near record highs of 13,000 million barrels per day.
            At the beginning of today's European session, Brent crude oil declines again after rising on Wednesday and is trading near 56.00. So far, a strong negative impulse prevails. Long positions are premature so far.
            The slowdown in the growth of the Chinese economy, the second largest in the world, due to the threat of a large-scale epidemic of the virus and a possible decrease in oil demand from China will still negatively affect the prices of commodities, including oil.
            Support Levels: 54.23, 50.00
            Resistance Levels: 56.90, 58.15, 59.20, 60.40, 62.00, 63.60, 63.90, 66.00, 67.50, 69.70, 71.95, 72.60

            Trading Recommendations

            Sell ​​by market. Stop-Loss 57.10. Take-Profit 55.00, 54.00, 53.00, 50.00
            Buy Stop 57.10. Stop-Loss 54.20. Take-Profit 58.15, 59.20, 60.40, 62.00, 63.60, 63.90


            *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

            Comment


            • DJIA: Current Situation
              10/02/2020

              Chinese President Xi Jinping last week assured US President Trump of China's intention to fulfill the obligations of a recently signed trade deal.
              US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that the rapid spread of the virus will inevitably affect the Chinese economy and may affect the US economy, although it’s too early to judge the strength and magnitude of this influence.
              This week (on Tuesday and Wednesday) Powell will speak in Congress as part of a statutory hearing. Probably, he will again touch upon the monetary policy of the Fed and the spread of coronavirus, which may cause increased volatility in world financial markets, including the US stock market.
              On Friday, US stock markets closed in negative territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by -0.9%, to 29102, the S&P 500 - by -0.5%, to 3327, and the Nasdaq 100 - by -0.5%, to 9401.
              Concerns over the spread of coronavirus in China nevertheless raise concerns about global growth. Fed officials call this an "unpredictable factor".
              Nevertheless, the positive mood of investors related to the signing of the “first phase” trade agreement between the USA and China last month helps to maintain the positive dynamics of world and US stock indices, despite the epidemic of coronavirus in China.
              Last week, the DJIA updated its absolute high near 59528.0, and at the beginning of today's European session, it is trading near 29070.0 mark.
              Above the short-term support levels of 28990.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 28770.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), the purchases look safe.
              In an alternative scenario, the first signal for sales will be a breakdown of the short-term support level of 28899.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart). In case of further decline, the targets will be the support levels 28770.0, 28165.0 (January lows), 27400.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
              However, only a breakdown of the support level of 24150.0 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level 38.2%) can break the DJIA bullish trend.
              Despite the corrective decline, the long-term positive dynamics of the DJIA remains, which makes its purchases preferable.
              Support Levels: 28990.0, 28770.0, 28165.0, 27400.0, 26220.0, 25270.0, 24600.0, 24150.0
              Resistance Levels: 29528.0

              Trading Scenarios

              Buy Stop 29530.0. Stop-Loss 28760.0. Take-Profit 30000.0
              Sell ​​Stop 28760.0. Stop-Loss 29175.0. Take-Profit 28165.0, 28000.0, 27400.0


              *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

              Comment


              • NZD/USD: concerns over coronavirus weaken
                12/02/2020

                As soon as today at 01:00 (GMT) the RBNZ decision on the rate was published, the New Zealand dollar strengthened sharply.
                The New Zealand Reserve Bank seems to be beginning to show a tendency towards tighter monetary policy amid the release of data indicating an improvement in the country's economy and lower risks of a slowdown in the global economy due to coronavirus in China.
                A statement made after the meeting of the RBNZ indicates that the central bank considers the risks associated with the outbreak of coronavirus not serious enough to significantly affect its position on monetary policy.
                RBNZ forecasts suggest that if the negative consequences of a coronavirus outbreak on economic growth do not exceed expectations, the next step is likely to be not a decrease, but an increase in the interest rate.
                After the RBNZ meeting, the NZD / USD pair increased by 50 points, and at the beginning of today's European session, NZD / USD is trading near 0.6485, which is 85 points higher than the opening price today.
                The immediate goal in case of continued growth of NZD / USD is the resistance levels of 0.6525 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.6535 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
                In case of their breakdown, NZD / USD will go towards the resistance levels of 0.6755 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.6865 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction in the global wave of pair decline from the 0.8820 mark).
                At the same time, below the key resistance level of 0.6535, long-term negative dynamics prevail.
                A return into the zone below the level of 0.6450 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) will cause a resumption of NZD / USD decline with targets at support levels of 0.6400, 0.6322 (November lows), 0.6260 (September 2015 lows and Fibonacci level 0%), 0.6205 (September lows).
                Powell will continue his congressional speech Wednesday. It will begin at 15:00 (GMT). On Tuesday, he reiterated that "if a situation arises that will cause a significant reassessment of our forecasts, we will respond accordingly". If Powell speaks out more specifically regarding the need for a softer monetary policy by the Fed, the US dollar may fall under sales after its 7-day rise the day before.
                In this case, the NZD / USD pair will receive an additional impetus for further growth.
                Support Levels: 0.6465, 0.6450, 0.6400, 0.6378, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100
                Resistance Levels: 0.6485, 0.6515, 0.6525, 0.6535, 0.6600, 0.6635, 0.6665, 0.6755, 0.6865

                Trading Scenarios

                Sell ​​Stop 0.6445. Stop-Loss 0.6485. Take-Profit 0.6400, 0.6378, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100
                Buy Stop 0.6490. Stop-Loss 0.6445. Take-Profit 0.6515, 0.6525, 0.6535, 0.6600, 0.6635, 0.6665, 0.6755, 0.6865


                *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                Comment


                • EUR/USD: negative dynamics persist
                  13/02/2020

                  According to the quarterly report submitted by the European Commission on Thursday, the eurozone's total GDP will grow by 1.2% in both 2020 and 2021. Thus, the European Commission confirmed the forecasts presented in November 2019.
                  Among the main risks, the European Commission indicated an outbreak of coronavirus and the uncertainty of US foreign trade policy.
                  The downward risks for the economic outlook were somewhat weakened after the conclusion of the first-phase trade agreement between China and the USA, as well as after the EU and Great Britain managed to avoid Brexit without a deal. However, uncertainty persists, and new sources of risk have emerged, one of which is coronavirus.
                  "The economy of the Eurozone may receive support from a softer and more stimulating fiscal policy, and will also be positively affected by soft financial conditions in some countries", the European Commission added.
                  The inflation forecast for 2020 was raised to 1.3% from 1.2%, and the forecast for 2021 - to 1.4% from 1.3%.
                  The head of the ECB Christine Lagarde also spoke in January about the negative impact on the economy of the Eurozone by the protectionist policy of the United States.
                  During a January 23 press conference, Lagarde said the Eurozone economy is facing "downside risks" due to increased protectionism, bearing in mind, among other things, the threat of US President Donald Trump to impose import duties on European cars.
                  Great Britain left the EU on January 31, however, internal political tensions and uncertainty in the Eurozone remain, but there are no significant signs of a recovery in Europe’s manufacturing sector.
                  It is possible that the ECB will be forced to resort to additional incentive measures, which will further weaken the euro. A recent ECB report suggests that rates could be reduced to -1% or even lower.
                  For the euro, a negative fundamental background prevails so far, creating the prerequisites for a further weakening of the euro.
                  EUR / USD is trading in a zone well below the key resistance level of 1.1128 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), and so far no recovery is expected. Long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains, which speaks in favor of short positions.
                  To resume growth, the price needs to break through the nearest resistance levels of 1.0953 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.1035 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
                  Support Levels: 1.0850, 1.0800
                  Resistance Levels: 1.0895, 1.0953, 1.0995, 1.1035, 1.1092, 1.1128

                  Trading Recommendations

                  Sell ​​Limit 1.0890, Sell Stop 1.0860. Stop-Loss 1.0910. Take-Profit 1.0800, 1.0700, 1.0600
                  Buy Stop 1.0955. Stop-Loss 1.0920. Take-Profit 1.0953, 1.0995, 1.1035, 1.1092, 1.1128


                  *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                  Comment


                  • WTI: long positions so far premature
                    14/02/2020

                    After falling sharply last month amid the spreading coronavirus infection in China, oil prices seem to have stabilized in February. Investor fears about the massive spread of coronavirus have declined. The rate of spread of the disease appears to be slowing. Expectations for China's economic recovery to recover in the 2nd quarter after falling in the 1st quarter due to coronavirus are supporting commodity prices, including oil.
                    At the beginning of the European session, WTI crude oil is trading near 51.50, above the short-term support level (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
                    The next target in case of continued growth will be the resistance levels 54.40 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 55.40 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the upward correction to the fall from the highs of the last few years near 76.80 to the support level near 42.15). Nevertheless, talking about the resumption of the bull trend is still premature. If investors again begin to receive information about the growing number of patients with coronavirus in China, then global stock indices and commodity prices will again come under pressure. Coronavirus is still the main topic.
                    A signal for sales will be a breakdown of the support level 51.20 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart). Breakdown of the next important support level of 50.30 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%) will increase pressure on the price towards its further decline with a long-term goal at support level 42.15 (Fibonacci level of 0% and December 2018 lows).
                    Today, investors and oil market participants will pay attention to the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of the next weekly report of the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes. According to the latest report, the number of active drilling rigs in the US has grown over the past month by just 6 rigs, to 676 units. A decline in demand from China and an increase in US oil reserves will put pressure on US oil producers. If the Baker Hughes report indicates a decrease in the number of active rigs, this could give a short-term positive impetus to prices.
                    Support Levels: 51.20, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
                    Resistance Levels: 53.00, 54.40, 55.40, 56.80, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

                    Trading Recommendations

                    Sell ​​Stop 50.90. Stop-Loss 52.10. Take-Profit 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
                    Buy Stop 52.10. Stop-Loss 50.90. Take-Profit 53.00, 54.40, 55.40, 56.80, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50


                    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                    Comment


                    • GBP/USD: the pound strengthened. What's next?
                      17/02/2020

                      The pound strengthened sharply last week, while the GBP / USD pair rose to an intra-week high near 1.3069. The reason was the report of new rearrangements in the office of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. New Finance Minister Rishi Sunak is a staunch supporter of Brexit, lower corporate taxes and capital gains taxes. According to some economists, its appointment may strengthen upward factors for the pound.
                      However, further growth of the pound and GBP / USD may be difficult.
                      In the long run, Brexit is still a negative factor for the pound. The UK is unlikely to receive significant preferences or benefits as a result of new international trade agreements.
                      At the same time, new data on inflation and employment in the UK expected this week may put downward pressure on the pound. These indices will be published on Tuesday and Wednesday (at 09:30 GMT).
                      Since the opening of today's trading day, GBP / USD has been trading in a narrow range near 1.3030, above important support levels 1.3025 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.3000 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.2850 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), while maintaining a positive the dynamics.
                      The breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.3069 will provoke further growth of GBP / USD towards the resistance levels of 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the GBP / USD decline in the wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3310 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
                      In an alternative scenario, the breakdown of support levels 1.3025, 1.3000 will be a signal for sales and lower GBP / USD to support level 1.2850.
                      Today is the day off in the USA (Presidents' Day). In view of this, trading volumes during the American session will be low, which, however, does not exclude the possibility of a sharp short-term increase in volatility in the thin market.
                      Support Levels: 1.3025, 1.3000, 1.2850, 1.2400, 1.2200, 1.2000
                      Resistance Levels: 1.3069, 1.3210, 1.3310, 1.3510, 1.3960

                      Trading Scenarios

                      Sell ​​Stop 1.2985. Stop-Loss 1.3075. Take-Profit 1.2955, 1.2910, 1.2850
                      Buy Stop 1.3075. Stop-Loss 1.2985. Take-Profit 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3310, 1.3510


                      *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                      Comment


                      • AUD/USD: downward trend prevails
                        18/02/2020

                        The publication of protocols from the February meeting of the RBA at the beginning of today's Asian session caused a drop in the Australian dollar and the pair AUD / USD. At a meeting on February 4, the RBA board decided to leave interest rates unchanged, at a record low of 0.75%. However, "there is reason to expect a lower key rate", said RBA head Philip Lowe. At the same time, “coronavirus is a new source of uncertainty”, the RBA management believes.
                        According to bank executives, "the epidemic poses a significant short-term economic risk for China and international trade flows, and therefore for the Australian economy".
                        Now, investors will follow the publication (on Wednesday and Thursday at 00:30 GMT) of data from the country's labor market in order to determine the further exchange rate of RBA interest rates and, accordingly, the dynamics of AUD. According to the forecast, unemployment is expected to increase in January to 5.2% from 5.1% in December. This is a negative factor for AUD.
                        Meanwhile, at the beginning of today's European session, AUD / USD is trading near 0.6680, below the key resistance level of 0.6880 (EMA200 on the daily chart), which indicates the prevalence of a downward global trend.
                        Only after growth into the zone above short-term important resistance levels of 0.6720 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.6780 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) can we return to the consideration of long positions with the target at the resistance level 0.6880.
                        Negative dynamics of AUD / USD prevails, speaking in favor of its sales.
                        In case of resumption of decline, the targets will be the support levels of 0.6600, 0.6500, 0.6260, 0.6000 (lows of 2008 - 2009).
                        Support Levels: 0.6670, 0.6660, 0.6600, 0.6300
                        Resistance Levels: 0.6720, 0.6755, 0.6780, 0.6800, 0.6845, 0.6880, 0.6935

                        Trading Recommendations

                        Sell ​​Stop 0.6665. Stop-Loss 0.6725. Take-Profit 0.6600, 0.6300, 0.6260
                        Buy Stop 0.6725. Stop-Loss 0.6665. Take-Profit 0.6755, 0.6780, 0.6800, 0.6845, 0.6880, 0.6935



                        *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

                        Comment


                        • EUR/USD: when will the fall of the euro stop?
                          19/02/2020

                          Macro data published at the beginning of yesterday's European session testified to the growing fears of European investors regarding the spread of coronavirus in China and the worsening business climate in Germany and the Eurozone.
                          The ZEW Institute reported a fall in the index of economic expectations in Germany in February to 8.7 (against 26.7 in January and a forecast of 21.5) and an economic sentiment index in the Eurozone to 10.4 (against 25.6 in January and a forecast of 30).
                          The EUR / USD completed the last trading day near the level 1.0789, reaching the lowest level since April 2017.
                          However, a deeper decline in EUR / USD has not yet been observed. On Wednesday, the pair is trading in a narrow range near the critical level of 1.0800 in anticipation of new drivers, either for corrective growth or for further decline.
                          It is noteworthy that in the first half of today's trading day there is an increase in the euro in cross-pair with the pound. If the strengthening of the euro extends to other important cross-pairs, we can seriously consider the likelihood of resumption of growth and the EUR / USD.
                          The first signal to resume purchases of EUR / USD will be a breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.0873 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
                          So far, the long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD. A breakdown of the local support level of 1.0790 will speak in favor of short positions and a decrease in EUR / USD towards the lows of March 2015 and the level of 1.0480 (Fibonacci level 0% of the upward correction to the fall of the pair from 1.3870 in May 2014 to 1.0480 reached in March 2015).
                          On Wednesday, investors will follow the publication (at 19:00 GMT) of the protocol from the January meeting of the Fed. In January, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged and signaled its intention to maintain them at their current level in the near future. The Fed also announced that it will continue to purchase treasury bonds in the 2nd quarter of 2020 and intervene in the repo markets. If the protocols contain new information signaling the Fed’s propensity for a softer policy, then the dollar, which has strengthened significantly in recent days, may decline, which will become a good positive driver for the so far correctional growth of EUR / USD.
                          Support Levels: 1.0790, 1.0800
                          Resistance Levels: 1.0815, 1.0873, 1.0900, 1.0945, 1.0990, 1.1080, 1.1115

                          Trading Recommendations

                          Sell ​​Stop 1.0780. Stop-Loss 1.0825. Take-Profit 1.0700, 1.0600
                          Buy Stop 1.0825. Stop-Loss 1.0780. Take-Profit 1.0873, 1.0900, 1.0945, 1.0990, 1.1080


                          *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

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                          • GBP/USD: downtrend risk increased
                            21/02/2020

                            According to Markit Economics, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in the UK manufacturing sector rose in February (51.9 against the forecast of 49.7 and 50.0 in January), reaching a 10-month high. The preliminary PMI for the UK services sector was forecast at 53.4 in February, but came out with a value slightly lower (53.3 against 53.9 in January).
                            Having received support from positive macro statistics, the pound strengthened, while the GBP / USD pair rose during the European session to an intraday high of 1.2951.
                            However, further growth of GBP / USD above the intraday high of 1.2951 did not follow. Investors are still cautious about positive macro data against the backdrop of Brexit and the spread of coronavirus in Asia.
                            The theme of coronavirus today again came to the fore. The growth in the number of new infected people in China and South Korea again raises concerns among investors, including the slowdown in global economic growth.
                            Economists also believe that the UK draft budget expected on March 11 will not contain plans for a significant fiscal stimulus to the economy, and the yield on UK 10-year government bonds by the 3rd quarter will fall by 40 basis points.
                            At the same time, the dollar continues to be in demand both as a defensive asset, and against the backdrop of positive macro statistics coming from the United States. Most likely, the DXY dollar index will finish in positive territory for the third week in a row.
                            Despite the current growth of the GBP / USD pair, the OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily and weekly charts switched to the side of the sellers, signaling the likelihood of a breakdown of the key support level of 1.2850 (EMA200 on the daily chart) and the resumption of the global GBP / USD downtrend.
                            GBP / USD has already broken through important short-term support levels of 1.3000 and 1.2962, which speaks in favor of short short-term positions with an immediate goal at the support level of 1.2850.
                            In an alternative scenario, and after the breakdown of resistance levels 1.2962 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.3000 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) GBP / USD will resume upward trend and head towards the local resistance level 1.3069. Further growth of GBP / USD in the current situation is unlikely.
                            Support Levels: 1.2850, 1.2400, 1.2200, 1.2000
                            Resistance Levels: 1.2962, 1.3000, 1.3069, 1.3210, 1.3310, 1.3510, 1.3960

                            Trading Scenarios

                            Sell ​​Stop 1.2890. Stop-Loss 1.2970. Take-Profit 1.2850, 1.2400, 1.2200, 1.2000
                            Buy Stop 1.2970. Stop-Loss 1.2890. Take-Profit 1.3000, 1.3069, 1.3210, 1.3310, 1.3510, 1.3960



                            *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

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                            • EUR/USD: short positions
                              25/02/2020

                              Amid continued investor concerns about the spread of coronavirus in China and its impact on the European economy, the decline in EUR / USD resumed on Tuesday. According to economists, in the 1st quarter of Germany's GDP growth may slow due to a reduction in exports and supply shortages, including from China and to China. 10% of intermediate goods for German factories come to Germany from China, while China accounts for about 6% of German exports. In China, the coronavirus epidemic has already affected production, export, and consumption levels. Now the virus has reached northern Italy, where more than 50,000 local residents were quarantined last Sunday.
                              The coronavirus epidemic directly threatens global economic growth, since the supply chain of many international enterprises depends on the supply of intermediate and finished products from China. Economists have warned that the global economy could miss $1 trillion of GDP.
                              For this reason, the dollar is likely to win, as many investors pay attention to it as a defensive asset along with traditional defensive assets (government bonds, gold).
                              Published at the beginning of yesterday's European session, the positive macro data on Germany could not decisively change the negative attitude towards the euro by investors.
                              At the beginning of today's European session, the EUR / USD broke through the short-term support level of 1.0843 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and continues to decline towards recent multi-year lows near the 1.0775 mark reached last week.
                              Several factors of a fundamental and technical nature speak in favor of a further decline in EUR / USD towards the lows of March 2015 and the level of 1.0480 (Fibonacci level 0% of the upward correction to the fall of the pair from 1.3870 in May 2014 to 1.0480 reached in March 2015)
                              In this situation, short positions are preferable, even if the upward correction starts again. A signal for her will be a return to the zone above the resistance level of 1.0843.
                              Support Levels: 1.0800, 1.0775
                              Resistance Levels: 1.0843, 1.0873, 1.0900, 1.0945, 1.0990, 1.1100

                              Trading Recommendations

                              Sell ​​by market. Stop-Loss 1.0880. Take-Profit 1.0775, 1.0700, 1.0600
                              Buy Stop 1.0880. Stop-Loss 1.0790. Take-Profit 1.0900, 1.0945, 1.0990, 1.1100


                              *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

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                              • DJIA: negativity prevails
                                26/02/2020

                                The positive mood of investors related to the signing of the “first phase” trade agreement between the US and China last month changed to a pessimistic one due to the spread of coronavirus outside of China, which could have an even greater negative impact on the global economy.
                                Earlier this month, Chinese President Xi Jinping assured US President Trump of China's intention to fulfill the obligations of a recently signed trade deal. At the same time, Jerome Powell, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve System, said that the rapid spread of the virus will inevitably affect the Chinese economy and may affect the US economy.
                                And so, investors' fears intensified on Tuesday after reports of the further spread of coronavirus and warnings of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) about a potential pandemic.
                                The S&P 500 fell another 0.3% on Tuesday to 3138.00 points, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.8%, reaching 8966.00 points, losing growth compared to the beginning of the year. Last week, the DJIA was trading near 29528.0, which corresponds to record and absolute highs. But today, at the beginning of the European session, DJIA futures are trading near the 26900.0 mark, 9.6% below last week's highs.
                                Protective assets are again in active demand. On Wednesday, the yield on 10-year US government bonds fell at the beginning of the European session to 1.321% (against 1.473% at the end of last week and against 1.576% at the beginning of last week), which corresponds to the lows of 2016. Gold quotes also resumed growth after falling on Tuesday.
                                DJIA broke through the important support level of 27546.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and at the beginning of today's European session it is traded near 27070.0.
                                It is not excluded that the index may decline further to support levels of 26220.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of correction to the DJIA growth wave that began in February 2016 from 15500.0), 25200.0 (August lows and ЕМА144 on the weekly chart), 24600.0 (June 2019 lows).
                                However, only a breakdown of the support level of 24150.0 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level 38.2%) can break the DJIA long-term bullish trend.
                                Growth into the zone above the resistance level of 27546.0 will revive the positive dynamics of the DJIA and once again make long positions relevant.
                                Support Levels: 26700.0, 26220.0, 25200.0, 24600.0, 24150.0
                                Resistance Levels: 27546.0, 27900.0, 28160.0, 28630.0, 28840.0, 29528.0

                                Trading Scenarios

                                Buy Stop 27350.0. Stop-Loss 26700.0. Take-Profit 27546.0, 27900.0, 28160.0, 28630.0, 28840.0, 29528.0
                                Sell ​​Stop 26700.0. Stop-Loss 27350.0. Take-Profit 26220.0, 25200.0, 24600.0, 24150.0


                                *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

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