Tifia Daily Market Analytics

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: negative dynamics prevail
09/16/2019
EUR / USD continues to decline in the long-term bearish trend, trading in downward channels on the daily and weekly charts.
At the beginning of this month, EUR / USD tested the support level near the level of 1.0960, however, subsequently rose to the resistance level of 1.1115 (the upper border of the downward channel and ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
At the moment, EUR / USD is falling, remaining under pressure from the ECB's decision on monetary policy last Thursday. As you know, the ECB resumed the program of quantitative easing and lowered the key interest rate on deposits by 0.1%, to -0.5%.
Now financial market participants are turning their attention to the Fed meeting next week. As expected, the Fed will reduce the rate by 0.25% to 2.00%, which will not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the dollar. The dollar may weaken sharply if the Fed leaders announce plans to further mitigate monetary policy by the end of the year.
The Fed meeting will be held September 17 - 18. Probably, up to this point, the EUR / USD pair will also remain under pressure. In the context of trade wars, the dollar remains a protective asset.
Currently, EUR / USD is trading below the key resistance levels of 1.1210 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 1.1260 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014) .
Short positions are recommended below these resistance levels.
The breakdown of the short-term support level of 1.1045 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) will be a signal for resuming sales of EUR / USD with targets near the levels of 1.0900, 1.0850.
Support Levels: 1.1045, 1.1000, 1.0960, 1.0940, 1.0900, 1.0850
Resistance Levels: 1.1087, 1.1115, 1.1210, 1.1260, 1.1285

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1040. Stop-Loss 1.1090. Take-Profit 1.1000, 1.0960, 1.0940, 1.0900, 1.0850
Buy Stop 1.1090. Stop-Loss 1.1040. Take-Profit 1.1115, 1.1210, 1.1260


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[TifiaFX]

S&P500: positive momentum maintains
09/13/2019 Support Levels: 2990.0, 2972.0, 2965.0, 2940.0, 2900.0, 2865.0, 2765.0
Resistance Levels: 3028.0

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 2990.0. Stop-Loss 3022.0. Goals 2972.0, 2965.0, 2940.0, 2900.0, 2865.0
Buy Stop 3022.0. Stop-Loss 2990.0. Goals 3028.0, 3100.0, 3200.0


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[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: on the eve of the ECB meeting
09/12/2019 Support Levels: 1.1000, 1.0960, 1.0940, 1.0900
Resistance Levels: 1.1030, 1.1090, 1.1115, 1.1210, 1.1260, 1.1285

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1.0980. Stop-Loss 1.1060. Take-Profit 1.0960, 1.0940, 1.0900, 1.0800
Buy Stop 1.1060. Stop-Loss 1.0980. Take-Profit 1.1090, 1.1115, 1.1210, 1.1260
[img]https://i.postimg.cc/gcCv5zrk/120919-EU-W.png[/img]


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[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Current dynamics on 09/09/2019

Published last Friday, data on the number of jobs outside the US agriculture in August fell short of expectations. According to data released on Friday by the Department of Labor, the number of jobs outside the US agriculture in August rose by 130,000 (the forecast was +150,000). The dollar is falling at the start of a new week after the publication of NFP.

Now investors are waiting for the Fed meeting next week and take into account the 100% probability of lowering rates by 0.25%.

Expectations of a more aggressive easing of the Fed's monetary policy are holding back investors from buying the dollar.

On Thursday (at 11:45 GMT), the ECB's decision on rates will be published. The ECB is expected to announce a large-scale easing program, as well as emphasizing its commitment to maintaining low interest rates.

Thus, most likely, before the publication of the ECB's decision on rates, the EUR / USD pair will trade in the range near current levels and the level of 1.1030, but with a tendency to further decline.

The immediate objectives of the decline in the event of a breakdown of the local support level of 1.1000 will be otmeki 1.0960, 1.0940. In an alternative scenario, a breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.1100 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) may become a signal to start an upward correction. The target is located at the resistance level of 1.1130 (local maximums and ЕМА50 on the daily chart). Growth above these levels is unlikely. Long-term negative dynamics prevail. Expectations of further easing of the monetary policy of the ECB put pressure on the euro and the pair EUR / USD.

Support Levels: 1.1030, 1.1000

Resistance Levels: 1.1100, 1.1130, 1.1200, 1.1220, 1.1270, 1.1285




Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1.0990. Stop-Loss 1.1090. Take-Profit 1.0960, 1.0940, 1.0900

Buy Stop 1.1090. Stop-Loss 1.0990. Take-Profit 1.1100, 1.1130, 1.1200, 1.1220, 1.1270, 1.1285



[img]https://i.postimg.cc/G2cQDnCQ/090919-EU-H4.png[/img]

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[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: American dollar is in demand
09/03/2019
Current Dynamics
The US dollar returns its previously lost positions, while commodity currencies are falling in price amid escalation of the trade conflict the USA with China.
On Tuesday, USD / CAD again tested the local resistance level of 1.3345, reached in August. Above the support level of 1.3250, the long-term positive dynamics of USD / CAD prevails. Long positions are preferred.
In the event of a breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.3345 (August highs) USD / CAD will go towards the local resistance levels 1.3435, 1.3452 (Fibonacci level 23.6%), 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560 (highs of the year).
In connection with the upcoming meeting of the Bank of Canada on Wednesday, you should also pay attention to the publication on Tuesday (at 13:30 GMT) of the PMI index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the economy of Canada, provided by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM). This indicator is an important indicator of the state of the Canadian economy. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the CAD, below 50 - as negative for the Canadian dollar. Forecast: 51.0 in August (against 51.2 in July). A relative decrease in the value (above 50) will have a short-term negative impact on the Canadian dollar. The data above the forecast will strengthen CAD.
Thus, most likely, the Bank of Canada on Wednesday will not reduce the rate from the current level of 1.75%, but will make it closer to the end of the year. Any hint from the Bank of Canada's management on this issue will put downward pressure on CAD.
In an alternative scenario, the signal for the resumption of short positions will be a breakdown of the short-term support level 1.3303 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
The objectives of the decline are the support levels 1.3250, 1.3258 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
The breakdown of these levels will trigger a further decline in the medium-term bearish trend with targets at support levels 1.3020, 1.2880 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
Support Levels: 1.3303, 1.3258, 1.3250, 1.3230, 1.3185, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2880
Resistance Levels: 1.3345, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560, 1.3600, 1.3660

Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 1.3285. Stop-Loss 1.3355. Take-Profit 1.3258, 1.3250, 1.3230
Buy Stop 1.3355. Stop-Loss 1.3285. Take-Profit 1.3400, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560, 1.3600, 1.3660



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[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: Current Dynamics
08/30/2019
At the beginning of the European session on Friday, USD / CAD is trading at a short-term support level of 1.3290 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
In the event of a breakdown of this support level and the development of a downward correction, USD / CAD may decrease to the support level of 1.3250 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
Nevertheless, above this support level, long-term positive dynamics prevail. After the breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.3345 (August highs) USD / CAD will go towards the local resistance levels 1.3435, 1.3452 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the downward correction to the pair's growth in the global uptrend since September 2012 and the level of 0.9700), 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560 (highs of the year).
Only a breakdown of the key support level 1.3250 and the local support level 1.3230 can trigger a further decline with targets at support levels 1.3020, 1.2880 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
In general, the US dollar maintains a positive trend, and above the 1.3300 mark, long USD / CAD positions are preferred.
Futures on the DXY dollar index is trading at the beginning of the European session on Friday near 98.50, 11 points above the opening price of today's trading day. The growth for the week at the moment is already + 0.98%, which allows the DXY index to remain in positive territory by the results of the month.
From the news today, we are waiting for the publication (at 12:30 GMT) of a whole block of important macro statistics for Canada (Canadian GDP for June and for the 2nd quarter) and the United States (index of personal spending and personal consumption spending of Americans for July).
In view of the importance of the data published at 12:30 (GMT), one should be prepared for the growth of volatility in the USD / CAD pair during this period of time.
Support Levels: 1.3290, 1.3250, 1.3230, 1.3185, 1.3115, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2880
Resistance Levels: 1.3345, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560, 1.3600, 1.3660

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3265. Stop-Loss 1.3325. Take-Profit 1.3250, 1.3230, 1.3185, 1.3115, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2880
Buy Stop 1.3325. Stop-Loss 1.3265. Take-Profit 1.3345, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560, 1.3600



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[TifiaFX]

DJIA: a new strong drop in indices
08/26/2019
Last month, the DJIA updated its absolute and annual maximum near the 27400.0 mark on expectations of a softer Fed monetary policy. Earlier, Trump has repeatedly criticized the Fed and called for lowering the interest rate by 1% at once, saying that this will accelerate growth in the stock market and support American producers.
The Fed lowered the rate by 0.25% at the end of July, however, stock markets reacted with restraint to this news, as many investors expected a rate cut by 0.50%.
However, stock indices, including DJIA, plummeted after Trump tweeted about the introduction of new 10% duties on Chinese goods from September 1.
August turned out to be extremely volatile. Fears of a slowdown in the global economy and further escalation of international trade conflicts do not leave investors.
Last Friday, global stock indices collapsed after China announced the introduction of duties on US goods worth $ 75 billion, and Donald Trump announced a response to this step of China.
On Monday, markets recovered some of the losses previously sustained after China Vice Premier Liu He said he wanted to resolve trade issues with the United States.
Market participants continue to follow any comments by the US and Chinese authorities regarding trade negotiations.
The deterioration of prospects in this direction may again bring down stock indices. Conversely, a warming or easing in trade disputes between the US and China will support stock indices.
The return of the DJIA to the zone above the resistance level of 26330.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart and local maximums) will indicate a recovery in the bull trend and the resumption of purchases.
Nevertheless, the OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts are still on the side of the sellers. Shopping is still premature.
Support Levels: 25270.0, 24600.0
Resistance Levels: 26030.0, 26100.0, 26330.0, 26700.0, 27000.0, 27400.0

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 26500.0. Stop-Loss 25800.0. Take-Profit 27000.0, 27400.0, 27500.0
Sell Stop 25600.0. Stop-Loss 26100.0. Take-Profit 25300.0, 24600.0



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[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: short positions are still preferred
08/23/2019 Support Levels: 1.2175, 1.2150, 1.2100, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2265, 1.2340, 1.2480, 1.2530, 1.2730

Trading Scenarios
Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.2280. Take-Profit 1.2175, 1.2150, 1.2100, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.2280. Stop-Loss 1.2190. Take-Profit 1.2340, 1.2480, 1.2530, 1.2730


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[TifiaFX]

S&P500: Current Dynamics and Recommendations
Expectations of a softening of the monetary policy of the Fed and positive macro statistics coming from the United States, contributed to the growth of major US stock indexes last month to new heights.
The S&P500 index updated a record high near 3028.0, however, subsequently collapsed amid Trump's threats to introduce new duties on Chinese goods from September 1.
S&P500 last week again tested the key support level of 2848.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), dropping to around 2815.0.
Nevertheless, investors are gradually becoming more active after recent events related to the aggravation of the trade conflict between the USA and China.
At the beginning of the new week, gold quotes and yield on US government bonds are declining.
Investors are encouraged by the prospect of new incentive measures by the Central Banks in several countries with the largest economies.
Last week, the White House administration decided to postpone plans to introduce a new 10% duty on some Chinese goods worth $ 156 billion, which was due to take effect on September 1. In addition, the White House said that they are preparing the next round of negotiations.
Since the opening of today's trading day, the S&P500 has been growing, and for the third day in a row.
Above the support levels of 2848.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 2865.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the growth since December 2018 and the level of 2335.0), the S&P500 long-term bullish trend remains.
After the breakdown of the resistance level of 2927.0 (EMA50 on the daily chart and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), the S&P500 will continue to move towards recent highs near 3028.0.
Support Levels: 2900.0, 2892.0, 2865.0, 2848.0, 2765.0, 2730. 2680.0
Resistance Levels: 2927.0, 2965.0, 3000.0, 3028.0

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 2888.0. Stop-Loss 2929.0. Goals 2865.0, 2848.0
Buy Stop 2929.0. Stop-Loss 2888.0. Goals 2965.0, 3000.0, 3028.0, 3100.0, 3200.0



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations
08/16/2019
With the opening of today's trading day, Eurodollar is again declining. Market participants are preparing for the next ECB meeting in September and new stimulus measures by the European Central Bank.
According to Olli Rehn, member of the ECB Governing Council, the European Central Bank at its meeting in September will announce a substantial stimulus package that will exceed investor expectations.
The ECB is likely to announce a 0.1% reduction in the key interest rate, which is now -0.4%, as well as an allocation of about 50 billion euros per month for additional bond purchases under the quantitative easing program.
Published disappointing economic data from China and Germany this week, as well as positive macro data from the United States, made market participants even more doubt the prospects for global economic growth, and also again updated the attractiveness of American assets and a more stable state of the US economy.
According to official data released on Thursday, US retail sales in July rose 0.7% (forecast was + 0.3%).
Retail sales data are encouraging regarding the US economy, that remains demand for US assets and the dollar.
Today (at 14:00 GMT) the University of Michigan consumer confidence index (preliminary release for August) will be published, which reflects the confidence of American consumers in the country's economic development. It is expected that this indicator will come out in August with a value of 97.7 (against 98.4 in July), which could negatively affect the dollar (in the short term) due to a relative decrease in the indicator. Data better than expected will certainly support the dollar, and will put additional pressure on EUR / USD.
Below the resistance levels of 1.1305 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), long-term negative dynamics persist. In the current situation, short positions look relevant and safer, and the reduction targets are located at support levels 1.1000, 1.0000.
You can return to purchases as part of the corrective growth of EUR / USD only after fixing the price in the zone above the short-term resistance level of 1.1160 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
Support Levels: 1.1070, 1.1000, 1.0000
Resistance Levels: 1.1125, 1.1160, 1.1190, 1.1245, 1.1260, 1.1285, 1.1305

Trading Recommendations
Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.1130. Take-Profit 1.1070, 1.1000, 1.0000
Buy Stop 1.1130. Stop-Loss 1.1060. Take-Profit 1.1160, 1.1190, 1.1245, 1.1260, 1.1285



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[TifiaFX]

S&P500: Current Dynamics and Recommendations
08/12/2019
In July, the S&P500 rose to record highs near 3028.0, which is about 22% higher than the opening price at the beginning of the year.
The growth of US stock indexes was contributed by the expectations of lower interest rates by the Fed and the positive macro statistics coming from the USA. However,
investors' concerns about the slowdown in global economic growth and the aggravation of trade confrontation between the US and China caused a sharp increase in volatility in world stock markets and a drop in indices. After sharp fluctuations, all three leading US indices finished the week with a decline of about 1%.
S&P500 completed last week at around 2918.0.
"We are not ready to conclude an agreement, but we'll see how everything goes", Trump told reporters on Friday. "We'll see if China meets with us in September".
During today's Asian session, the S&P500 and other major US stock indexes rose, but fell again at the beginning of the European session. Thus, S&P500 futures are trading at the beginning of the European session on Monday near the level of 2907.0, 14 points below the opening price today.
The S&P500 futures are trading below resistance levels at 2944.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 2934.0, 2920.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
Below the short-term resistance level of 2920.0, short positions with targets located near the support levels of 2845.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 2865.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to growth since December 2018 and mark 2335.0) are preferable. Above these support levels, the S&P500 bullish trend remains.
The breakdown of support levels 2845.0, 2865.0 can trigger a deeper decline to support levels 2765.0 (Fibonacci 38.2%), 2680.0 (Fibonacci 50%).
You can return to shopping after fixing the S&P500 in the zone above the resistance level of 2944.0.
Support levels: 2900.0, 2865.0, 2845.0, 2765.0, 2730. 2680.0
Resistance Levels: 2920.0, 2934.0, 2944.0, 2965.0, 3000.0, 3028.0

Trading recommendations
Sell by market. Stop-Loss 2945.0. Goals 2900.0, 2865.0, 2845.0, 2800.0
Buy Stop 2945.0. Stop-Loss 2910.0. Goals 2965.0, 3000.0, 3028.0, 3100.0, 3200.0



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[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: downward dynamics prevails
08/08/2019
Current Dynamics Support Levels: 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6600, 0.6300
Resistance Levels: 0.6816, 0.6830, 0.6865, 0.6910, 0.7000, 0.7065

Trading Recommendations
Sell by market. Sell-Limit 0.6800, 0.6816, 0.6830. Stop-Loss 0.6870. Take-Profit 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6600, 0.6300
Buy Stop 0.6870. Stop-Loss 0.6810. Take-Profit 0.6910, 0.7000, 0.7065



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[TifiaFX]

DJIA: Current Dynamics
08/05/2019
Against the background of expectations of easing the Fed's monetary policy, the US stock index DJIA updated last month the absolute and annual maximum near the level of 27400.0.
Last week, the Fed lowered the rate by 0.25%. Many investors expected a rate cut by 0.50%, so the market reaction was restrained to this news.
Although the indices have maintained their positive dynamics.
However, stock indices, including the DJIA, crashed late last week after Trump tweeted that the United States introduced a new 10% duty on Chinese goods from September 1.
Last week was the worst for US stock markets in a few months.
S&P 500 on Friday fell by 0.7% to 2932.05 points. Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.4%, falling to 26485.01 points. Over the entire week, the S&P 500 fell 3.1% - this is its worst weekly dynamics since December. DJIA for the whole week fell by 2.6% and recorded the strongest weekly decline since May. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.3% on Friday to 8004.07 points, and lost 3.9% over the entire week.
On Monday, the fall of world and US stock indices continues.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 2.9% to 26151.32 points on Monday in Japan, while the Japanese Nikkei Stock Average fell 1.7% to 20720.29 points on the back of the yen rising to a 7-month high.
Futures on the S&P500 index are trading at the beginning of the European session on Monday near 2888.0, 40 pips (or 1.3%) below the opening price of today's trading day.
Futures on the DJIA index are trading at the beginning of the European session near the mark of 26100.0, 370 points (or 1.4%) below the opening price of today's trading day, near the support level of 26100.0 (EMA144 on the daily chart).
In case of breakdown of the support level 25900.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the following objectives will be the support level 25300.0 (the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily and weekly charts) and the important support level 24630.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the DJIA growth wave that began in February 2016 from the mark of 15500.0).
Nevertheless, despite the current decline, there is the long-term positive dynamics of the American stock indices and the DJIA index, including.
A return to the zone above the resistance levels of 26700.0 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart and maximums of April 2019), 26830.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) will indicate a restoration of the bull trend and the resumption of purchases.
In the meantime, you should refrain from shopping.
Support Levels: 26100.0, 25900.0, 25300.0, 24630.0
Resistance Levels: 26700.0, 26830.0, 27000.0, 27400.0

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 26850.0. Stop-Loss 25980.0. Take-Profit 27000.0, 27400.0, 27500.0
Sell Stop 25980.0. Stop-Loss 26850.0. Take-Profit 25900.0, 25300.0, 24630.0



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[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Eurodollar is likely to continue to decline
08/01/2019 Support Levels: 1.1030, 1.1000, 1.0900, 1.0500
Resistance Levels: 1.1145, 1.1180, 1.1210, 1.1285, 1.1320

Trading Recommendations
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1080. Take-Profit 1.1000, 1.0900
Buy Stop 1.1080. Stop-Loss 1.1020. Take-Profit 1.1145, 1.1180, 1.1210



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: Current dynamics before the Fed meeting
07/29/2019 Support Levels: 3004.0, 2965.0, 2937.0, 2865.0, 2840.0, 2765.0
Resistance Levels: 3028.0

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 2990.0. Stop-Loss 3030.0. Targets 2965.0, 2937.0
Buy Stop 3030.0. Stop Loss 2990.0. Targets 3050.0, 3100.0, 3200.0


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com