Tifia Daily Market Analytics

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations
07/24/2019
On Wednesday, EUR / USD declines for the fourth day in a row. Long-term negative dynamics remains below the resistance level of 1.1340 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). A strong level that holds EUR / USD from a more significant correction growth is the resistance level of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014). In the alternative scenario and after the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1285, EUR / USD will move towards the key resistance level of 1.1340 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) with the intermediate goal at the resistance level of 1.1300 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
A more aggressive scenario involves the return of EUR / USD to the zone of resistance levels 1.1410 (monthly maximum), 1.1445. However, this is an unlikely scenario.
In the current situation and below the resistance level of 1.1285, only short positions should be considered.
The PMI purchasing managers' index for the manufacturing sector in Germany, published on Wednesday, fell to a minimum of 84.1 in 84 months in July from 45.0 in June. The accelerated decline in industrial production in Germany indicates a growing recession risk in this country with the largest economy in Europe.
Investors expect the ECB at its next meeting on Thursday to not change its monetary policy, but Mario Draghi is likely to set the stage for easing monetary policy later, in September or November.
Expectations of such a decision by the ECB put strong pressure on the euro. The publication of the ECB decision on rates will be held on Thursday (at 11:45 GMT), the ECB press conference will begin at 12:30.
Obviously, before these events, the euro and the EUR / USD pair will remain under pressure.
Support Levels: 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1030
Resistance Levels: 1.1180, 1.1195, 1.1215, 1.1248, 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1340, 1.1410, 1.1445

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1125. Stop Loss 1.1160. Take-Profit 1.1100, 1.1030
Buy Stop 1.1160. Stop-Loss 1.1125. Take-Profit 1.1180, 1.1195, 1.1215, 1.1248, 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1340



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WTI Oil: Current Trends and Recommendations
07/19/2019
Despite a report by the US Department of Energy, published last Wednesday and showing a decline in oil reserves in the country, oil prices dropped sharply. Oil reserves in the US declined last week by 3.1 million barrels to 455.9 million barrels. However, it is still about 4% above the average 5-year value for this time of year.
The data of the Ministry of Energy also showed an unexpected increase in gasoline reserves by 3.6 million barrels and an increase in distillate stocks by 5.7 million barrels, to 136.2 million barrels.
The growth of stocks of petroleum products, according to economists, is due to lower demand in the United States and a decline in exports.
On Thursday, WTI quotes fell to 54.72. In total, since the beginning of the week, the price of WTI crude oil has lost approximately 7.5% by now.
On Friday, oil prices rebounded slightly after a sharp fall the day before. At the beginning of the European session on Friday, WTI crude oil traded near the mark of 56.00 dollars per barrel.
Nevertheless, due to the US-China trade conflict and due to the increase in the volume of shale oil production in the US, oil prices are likely to continue to decline.
On Friday, oil market participants will pay attention to the report of the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes on the number of active drilling rigs in the United States. Previous reports showed a decrease in the number of active oil platforms in the United States, to 784 units at the moment. If the report again indicates a decrease in the number of such installations, this may give a short-term positive impetus to prices. Publication of this report is scheduled for 17:00 (GMT).
The price of WTI crude oil has broken through key support levels of 58.80 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 56.80 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart) and continues to decline, trading on Friday near the mark of 56.00 dollars per barrel at the beginning of the European session.
Negative dynamics prevail, short positions are preferable.
Further decline will mean the return of oil prices into a bearish trend.
In the alternative scenario, the growth and price fixing in the zone above the resistance levels of 58.80, 59.50 (Fibonacci level 50%) will speak about the resumption of the bull trend. The signal for this will be the breakdown of short-term resistance levels of 57.65 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 58.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
Support levels: 55.40, 54.10, 53.25, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
Resistance Levels: 56.80, 57.65, 58.00, 58.80, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 55.30. Stop-Loss 58.40. Take-Profit 54.10, 53.25, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
Buy Stop 58.40. Stop-Loss 55.30. Take-Profit 58.80, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50


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GBP/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations
07/16/2019 Support Levels: 1.2400, 1.2365
Resistance Levels: 1.2480, 1.2540, 1.2580, 1.2630, 1.2670, 1.2700, 1.2765, 1.2800

Trading Recommendations
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.2520. Take-Profit 1.2400, 1.2365, 1.2300
Buy Stop 1.2520. Stop Loss 1.2420. Take-Profit 1.2540, 1.2580, 1.2630, 1.2670, 1.2700, 1.2765, 1.2800



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EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
10/07/2019 Support Levels: 1.1195, 1.1180, 1.1125
Resistance Levels: 1.1260, 1.1285, 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1190. Stop Loss 1.1245. Take-Profit 1.1180, 1.1125
Buy Stop 1.1245. Stop-Loss 1.1190. Take-Profit 1.1260, 1.1285, 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1410


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EUR/USD: on the eve of the NFP publication
05/07/2019
On Friday, the trades are "on the side" of the dollar, while investors are waiting for publication (at 12:30 GMT) of data from the US labor market. In June, unemployment is expected to remain at the level of 3.6%, while the number of jobs outside the US agricultural sector increased by 165,000, after +75,000 in May.
This is strong data that will support the dollar with the confirmation of the forecast and will force the Fed to wait a little with the rate decrease.
In the American economy, things are not so bad in comparison with other economies, and American consumers continue to actively spend money.
If the growth of new jobs again turns out to be less than 100,000, and unemployment rises, then the markets will take this as a signal to the Fed in the direction of lowering the rate, and by 50 basis points at once. In this case, the pressure on the dollar will resume with a new force.
Meanwhile, the Eurodollar has been declining since the opening of today's trading day. The EUR / USD pair is trading at the beginning of the European session, near the 1.1260 mark, 23 points lower than the opening price of today's trading day. Weak macro statistics, received at the beginning of the European session from Germany, had a negative impact on the euro. In May, orders in the manufacturing sector of Germany decreased by 2.2% compared with April, and compared with the same period of the previous year - even more, by 8.6%. The German economy is the locomotive of the entire European economy, and its slowdown will increase the pressure on the ECB towards the adoption of additional incentive measures in the coming months.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

EUR / USD broke through two strong support levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to a fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1277 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) and continues to decline. The breakthrough of the support level of 1.1265 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart) will provoke a further decline of EUR / USD to the targets located at the support levels of 1.1180 (June lows), 1.1125 (minimums of the year).
Below resistance levels 1.1355 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.1410 (monthly maximum)
short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 1.1265, 1.1180, 1.1125
Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1310, 1.1355, 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.1255. Stop Loss 1.1295. Take-Profit 1.1200, 1.1180, 1.1125
Buy Stop 1.1295. Stop-Loss 1.1255. Take-Profit 1.1310, 1.1355, 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600



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AUD/USD: Current Dynamics
01/07/2019
As part of the G20 summit held in Osaka last Sunday, US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to suspend a trade war between these countries. The United States will indefinitely postpone the introduction of duties on Chinese goods worth about $ 300 billion, while China promised to start buying large amounts of agricultural products in the United States.
Investors are inspired by the outcome of the G20 summit in Osaka, which ended last weekend, and global stock indices once again rushed up.
The dollar also rose from the opening of today's trading day, and the AUD / USD pair has dropped sharply, despite the very successful start of the trading day.
According to Caixin, in June, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector in China fell to 49.4 from 50.2 in May. The indicator for the first time in four months was below the threshold of 50.0, separating the growth of activity from its decline.
The official PMI for the manufacturing sector of China, published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on Sunday, remained unchanged in June, reaching 49.4, which is also below the threshold of 50.0.
Negative macro statistics from China put pressure on New Zealand and Australian dollars.
On Tuesday, the RB of Australia will decide on the interest rate. Early last month, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its key interest rate by 25 bps. to 1.25%, for the first time since August 2016, and its head, Philip Lowe, said that "there is reason to expect a lower key rate".
As expected, on Tuesday, the RBA will again lower its interest rate by 0.25% to 1.00%. This is a strong negative fundamental factor for AUD.
Publication of the RBA decision on rates is scheduled for Tuesday (04:30 GMT), and at 09:30 GMT, the speech of the head of the RBA, Philip Lowe, will begin. A sharp increase in volatility is expected in the AUD / USD.
The different directions of the monetary policies of the RBA and the Fed is a strong fundamental factor for reducing AUD / USD.
The medium-term goal of the decline is located at around 0.6770 (2019 lows). Below the key resistance levels of 0.7060 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.7110 (EMA200 on the daily chart) short positions remain preferable.
Support Levels: 0.6969, 0.6957, 0.6910, 0.6865, 0.6830, 0.6800, 0.6770
Resistance Levels: 0.7000, 0.7060, 0.7110

Trading Recommendations
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7040. Take-Profit 0.6969, 0.6957, 0.6910, 0.6865, 0.6830, 0.6800, 0.6770
Buy Stop 0.7040. Stop Loss 0.6990. Take-Profit 0.7060, 0.7110



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EUR/USD: pending new drivers
28/06/2019
Eurodollar rose at the beginning of the European session on Friday. According to the data presented, consumer price indices (CPI) in Italy and France rose in June and were better than forecast. The core consumer price index published at 09:00 (GMT) also showed an increase in consumer inflation in the Eurozone (+1.1% in annual terms, against the forecast of +1.0% and against +0.8% in May).
After the publication of data, EUR / USD rose by 30 points, to the level of 1.1392. The CPI is a key indicator of inflation and an indicator of changes in consumer trends. The high value, as well as the growth of the rate is a positive factor for EUR.
However, EUR / USD was not able to develop an upward trend above 1.1392. Inflation in the Eurozone is still at extremely low levels, well below the target level of the ECB, set at just below 2.0%. Eurozone's core consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.2% in June compared with the same period last year, after a 1.2% increase in May. This is a negative factor for the euro. It is possible that the ECB, at a meeting on July 25, will take additional measures to stimulate the economy.
On Friday, investor attention will be focused on the G-20 leaders meeting in Osaka. Investors are waiting for a shift in the trade confrontation between the United States and China towards a new trade agreement. Probably, trading in financial markets in anticipation of the outcome of the meeting will be held in the range.
If the meeting of Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, which is scheduled for Saturday, ends in nothing, then most likely the global stock indexes will react with a fall, and the demand for defensive assets will rise again. Then the Fed will be forced yet to begin easing monetary policy, which will cause a further weakening of the dollar.
Meanwhile, EUR / USD spent the current week in the range between the local resistance level of 1.1410 and the support level of 1.1355 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
The signal for movement in one direction or another will be the breakdown of one of the range boundaries (levels 1.1410, 1.1355).
The reduction targets are located at support levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to a fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1275 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.1180 (June lows), 1.1125 (minimums of the year); growth targets - at the resistance level of 1.1600 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
Support Levels: 1.1355, 1.1285, 1.1275, 1.1180, 1.1125
Resistance Levels: 1.1410, 1.1510, 1.1600

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1340. Stop-Loss 1.1420. Take-Profit 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1260, 1.1180, 1.1125
Buy Stop 1.1420. Stop-Loss 1.1340. Take-Profit 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600



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WTI: Current Dynamics
06/27/2019
The oil market has a very controversial situation. The growth of geopolitical tensions associated with the situation in the Gulf of Oman, and the threat of interruptions in the supply of oil from this region are pushing prices up. The two-week rally, which began in the middle of the month from a level near the mark of 50.50 dollars per barrel of WTI oil, is happening against this background. On Wednesday, the US Department of Energy published regular weekly data indicating a significant decline in oil reserves in the country (-12.788 million barrels to 470 million barrels). This gave additional upward momentum to oil prices, which allowed them to grow to key levels of 59.50 (Fibonacci 50% of the upward correction to the fall from the highs of the past few years near 76.80 to support near 42.15), 59.00 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
At the same time, further growth is constrained by the risks of a slowdown in the global economy and oil consumption.
As expected, at the G20 summit this weekend will meet US President Trump and DPRK President Xi Jinping. Many experts believe that they will not be able to make progress in the negotiations to achieve a trade truce. Negative news from the G20 summit and
concerns about global economic growth may lead to a resumption of lower prices.
On Thursday, WTI crude oil traded near resistance levels of 59.50, 59.00. Below these levels short positions will become relevant again. Only a breakthrough to the zone above the local resistance level of 60.90 will confirm the revival of the bullish trend, and the price will head towards the annual highs near the 66.00 dollars mark. Long-term goals of decline are located at the support level of 42.15 (Fibonacci level of 0% and minimums of December 2018).
Support levels: 56.80, 55.40, 54.10, 53.25, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
Resistance Levels: 59.00, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 57.50. Stop Loss 60.10. Take-Profit 56.80, 55.40, 54.10, 53.25, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
Buy Stop 60.10. Stop Loss 57.50. Take-Profit 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50


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EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
06/24/2019
The dollar continued to decline in the first half of the trading day on Monday. At the beginning of the US session, the DXY dollar index futures, reflecting the value of the dollar to a basket of 6 major currencies, is trading near the 95.62 mark, 10 points lower than the closing price last Friday. The weekly drop in the index was the strongest since February 2018. The main driver of the dollar decline in the current situation is the expectation of a Fed rate cut soon.
Against the background of a falling dollar, the EUR / USD pair is rising after the pair reached a 3-month high on Friday near the 1.1377 mark. At the beginning of the American session, EUR / USD is trading near the 1.1390 mark after the publication (08:00 GMT) of the IFO indices for Germany, which showed that the European economy is still far away from the recovery.
EUR / USD broke through on Friday the key resistance level of 1.1355 and continues to grow towards the 1.1400 mark. The long-term goal of growth is the resistance level of 1.1600 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
However, near the level of 1.1400 possible rebound.
In the case of a return to the zone below the level of 1.1355, short positions will again become relevant.
The breakdown of support levels of 1.1305 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014) will confirm the return of EUR / USD to the global bearish trend.
Support Levels: 1.1355, 1.1305, 1.1285, 1.1243, 1.1180, 1.1125
Resistance Levels: 1.1400, 1.1510, 1.1600

Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 1.1340. Stop-Loss 1.1415. Take-Profit 1.1305, 1.1285, 1.1243, 1.1180, 1.1125
Buy Stop 1.1415. Stop-Loss 1.1340. Take-Profit 1.1510, 1.1600



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[TifiaFX]

WTI Oil: Current Dynamics
24/05/2019 *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

The price of WTI crude oil is trading on Friday below key support levels of 59.90 (EMA200 and EMA144 on the daily chart), 59.50 (Fibonacci 50% level of the upward correction to a fall from the highs of the last few years near the mark of 76.80 to the level of support near 42.14), slightly higher support level 56.85 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
Growth in the zone above the levels of 56.85, 59.50, 59.90 will cause the resumption of the bullish trend.
The breakdown of the support level of 56.85 will open the way to the support level of 55.40 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%). Breakdown of this support level will revive the bearish trend.
Support Levels: 57.00, 56.85, 55.40
Resistance Levels: 59.50, 59.90, 61.10, 61.50, 61.85, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 57.80. Stop Loss 58.80. Take-Profit 57.00, 56.85, 55.40
Buy Stop 58.80. Stop Loss 57.80. Take-Profit 59.50, 59.90, 61.10, 61.50, 61.85, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50


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NZD/USD: Current Dynamics
05/23/2019 Support Levels: 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6230
Resistance Levels: 0.6500, 0.6535, 0.6580, 0.6623, 0.6710, 0.6755, 0.6800, 0.6855, 0.6940

Trading Recommendations
Sell Stop 0.6620. Stop Loss 0.6670. Take-Profit 0.6600, 0.6575, 0.6510, 0.6430
Buy Stop 0.6670. Stop Loss 0.6620. Take-Profit 0.6700, 0.6745, 0.6780, 0.6800, 0.6935, 0.6980, 0.7060


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USD/CAD: before the publication of the FOMC minutes
05/22/2019
Current Dynamics *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Technical Analysis
The increase in volatility in the USD / CAD is expected at 12:30 (GMT) in connection with the publication of data on retail sales in Canada. In March, the level of retail sales is expected to increase by 1.0% in the country (after rising + 0.8% in the previous month). This is a positive factor that will support CAD when confirming the forecast.
After the USD / CAD updated its 3-month high near the 1.3520 mark at the end of last month, this currency pair is being adjusted, falling on Wednesday for the 4th consecutive day.
At the beginning of the European session, USD / CAD is trading near 1.3390, below the important support level of 1.3400 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
The OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 1-hour, 4-hour and daily charts turned to the short positions.
Nevertheless, USD / CAD maintains a long-term positive trend, trading above key support levels of 1.3310 (EMA144), 1.3265 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
The breakdown of resistance levels 1.3400, 1.3419 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart) will be a signal for the resumption of long positions.
After the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.3520 (2019 highs), the USD / CAD will head towards the resistance levels of 1.3660 (2018 highs), 1.3790 (2017 highs).
Support Levels: 1.3376, 1.3335, 1.3310, 1.3265
Resistance Levels: 1.3400, 1.3419, 1.3440, 1.3452, 1.3480, 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3370. Stop Loss 1.3435. Take-Profit 1.3335, 1.3310, 1.3265
Buy Stop 1.3435. Stop Loss 1.3370. Take-Profit 1.3452, 1.3480, 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790



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AUD/USD: Trading Scenarios
05/21/2019Support Levels: 0.6830, 0.6800
Resistance Levels: 0.6932, 0.6980, 0.7015, 0.7100, 0.7120

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.6910. Take-Profit 0.6830, 0.6800
Buy Stop 0.6910. Stop Loss 0.6870. Take-Profit 0.6932, 0.6980, 0.7015, 0.7100, 0.7120



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XAU/USD: Current Dynamics
05/20/2019 Support Levels: 1277.00, 1268.00, 1248.00
Resistance Levels: 1287.00, 1296.00, 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00

Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 1272.00. Stop Loss 1282.00. Take-Profit 1268.00, 1248.00, 1234.00, 1220.00, 1197.00, 1185.00, 1160.00
Buy Stop 1282.00. Stop Loss 1272.00. Take-Profit 1287.00, 1296.00, 1303.00, 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

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AUD/USD: Current Dynamics
05/17/2019
The US dollar rose on Thursday. The dollar index DXY, reflecting the value of the dollar against a basket of 6 major currencies, rose by 32 points on Thursday, to 97.68. Published US economic data exceeded expectations, which increased investor risk appetite.
According to data released on Thursday, the number of new homes in the United States has increased by 5.7% in April compared with the previous month and amounted to 1.235 million units; the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits was 212,000 (compared with the forecast of 220,000 and 228,000 in the previous weekly period).
On Friday, investors will pay attention to the publication (at 14:00 GMT) of the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan. The index is an indicator of consumer confidence in economic growth. High result strengthens USD, low - weakens
The index is expected to rise to 97.5 in May against 97.2 in April. Probably, the US dollar will receive an additional impetus to growth, if the data is confirmed or will be better than the forecast. The data below the forecast will have a downward pressure on the dollar, but only in the short term.
Under conditions of uncertainty and escalation of international trade wars, the US dollar looks preferable to other currencies due to the greater stability of the American economy.
On Friday, the USD growth continues, while the DXY dollar index futures traded at the beginning of the European session near the 97.73 mark.
Meanwhile, the Australian dollar is falling after data came out on Thursday indicating that unemployment was rising in Australia to 5.2%. The revised data also indicated that unemployment in March was 5.1% versus a previous estimate of 5.0%.
Rising unemployment increases the pressure on the RBA to lower interest rates. On Tuesday, the RBA Governor will deliver a speech in Brisbane. It is possible that he will signal the imminent reduction in rates. Investors estimate the likelihood of the June decline in RBA rates at 40% and 100% in August.
In the current situation, the most likely scenario is a further decrease in AUD / USD with the closest target at 0.6830 (2016 lows).
Below the key resistance levels of 0.7130 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.7170 (EMA200 on the daily chart) short positions remain preferable. A strong negative impulse prevails.
Support Levels: 0.6830, 0.6800
Resistance Levels: 0.6953, 0.6980, 0.7030, 0.7130, 0.7170

Trading recommendations
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.6910. Take-Profit 0.6830, 0.6800
Buy Stop 0.6910. Stop Loss 0.6870. Take-Profit 0.6953, 0.6980, 0.7030, 0.7130, 0.7170
[img]httpshttps://i.postimg.cc/RCY0wsbb/100519-DXY.png[/img]


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