Tifia Daily Market Analytics

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S&P500: US indices are down
22/03/2017
Overview and dynamics
After the rapid growth against the backdrop of the victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election, US stock indices stabilized at new historical highs this month. However, yesterday the US indices fell sharply, for one day having crossed the entire growth of this month. As a result of the Tuesday session, the main stock indexes recorded the maximum decline since the beginning of this year.
So, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 238 points (by 1.1%), Nasdaq Composite fell by 1.8%, S & P500 fell by 1.2%. The most affected stocks are in the financial sector, which fell sharply Tuesday along with the yield of government bonds. The subindex of shares of industrial companies fell by 1.5%. The fall in oil prices also puts pressure on the oil and gas sector in the S & P500 index. The yield of 10-year US government bonds fell, according to Tradeweb, to 2,432% from 2,472% the day before. After Trump's victory in the elections, US stocks and the dollar rose against the backdrop of hopes that Donald Trump is implementing his program to support business, reduce taxes and increase budget spending, including on the US infrastructure. Now, many investors are increasingly skeptical about President Trump's plans to stimulate the economy.
The US dollar is also weakening in the foreign exchange market amid investor skepticism about the likelihood that Trump will fulfill his promises to stimulate the US economy. The dollar is not even helped by the tightening of monetary policy on the part of the Fed. It seems that now all the attention of investors is focused on whether Trump will manage to fulfill his promises. According to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch, almost a third of investors consider shares overbought, which is the maximum level for 17 years.
Tomorrow at 12:00 (GMT) the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Jellen, begins. It is possible that the dollar will receive support if Janet Yellen's speech contains signals to accelerate rates of rate hikes in the US. The fact that the Fed intends to raise just two more times this year's rates, market participants have already heard last week, when the Fed made a decision on the rates. How will speech Janet Yellen affect the US stock market - it is difficult to say for the time being.

Technical analysis
In March, the S & P500 index updated its absolute historical high, reaching the mark of 2400.0. However, in the future, like other major US stock indices, the S & P500 index suspended its growth. And for yesterday, the index lost all of its gains this month.
With the opening of today, the decline in the S & P500 index continues. At the beginning of the European session, the index is trading near the mark 2332.0 and the support level of EMA50 (on the daily chart).
Over the last two days, the index broke through two strong local support levels of 2369.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 2348.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts went to the side of sellers.
On the weekly chart, the indicators also unfold to short positions. It seems that the long-overdue correction after such a rapid growth of the indices began to be realized.
So far, the S & P500 has been restraining the support level of 2332.0 from further decline. In case of its breakdown, the S & P500 index decline may continue with the targets of 2275.0, 2265.0 (2180.0 (Fibonacci correction level of 23.6% in the wave of growth of the S & P500 index from February 2016 to the level of 2400.0).
The breakdown of the support level of 2265.0 will strengthen the risks of further decline of the index to the level of 2226.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart and November highs). The breakdown of the support level 2180.0 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2%) will cancel the bullish trend of the index.
The reverse scenario involves the return of the index above the level of 2348.0 and the resumption of growth. But only when you fix the index above the level of 2369.0 you can return to safe shopping. So far, negative dynamics prevails.

Support levels: 2332.0, 2300.0, 2275.0, 2265.0, 2226.0, 2200.0, 2180.0
Resistance levels: 2348.0, 2369.0, 2400.0

Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 2334.0. Stop-Loss 2349.0. Objectives 2330.0, 2300.0, 2275.0, 2213.0, 2200.0, 2180.0
Buy Stop 2349.0. Stop-Loss 2334.0. Objectives 2369.0, 2390.0, 2400.0
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[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: the dollar can get support today
23/03/2017

Trading recommendations
Sell Stop 1.0770. Stop-Loss 1.0830. Targets 1.0760, 1.0735, 1.0675, 1.0615
Buy Stop 1.0830. Stop-Loss 1.0770. Targets 1.0850, 1.0890, 1.0940

Overview and Dynamics
Last week, as you know, at the end of two day meeting of the Fed raised short-term interest rates 25 basis points to 0.75% -1.00% range. In this case, the Fed pointed to the likelihood of the two rate hikes this year. Fed comments did not meet expectations of investors, who were counting on 3-4 fold increase in the rate.
In response to the Fed's comments that the Fed showed inclination for a more loose monetary policy, and contrary to the decision to raise rates, the greenback fell sharply on the foreign exchange market. The WSJ dollar index, which tracks the US dollar's value against a basket of 16 major currencies, fell on Wednesday by 1.2%, to 90.82, which was its strongest one-day fall since January 17.
Investors who have been actively investing in the safe-haven yen, gold, took up negative attitude towards the dollar. The EUR / USD which received additional support after the results became known primaries in France, where the leader, former Minister of Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs of France, Emmanuel Macron, a supporter of euro integration. The leader of the political party "National Front" Marine Le Pen, which is against the euro integration and for exit of France's from NATO, again moved to 3rd place.
Among the investors became more euro buyers than before, and there are proponents of the view that the ECB will soon turn off the program of quantitative easing, QE in the Eurozone.
So, on Monday, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said the ECB should gradually start to move away from loose monetary policy, which leads to inflation.
Last week was presented the February data on inflation, which for the first time in four years showed accelerating price growth towards the ECB target (below 2.0%). At a recent press conference ECB President Mario Draghi said "there is no more sense of further action urgent need" to deal with the extremely slow pace of inflation. However, the consensus among the leaders of the ECB on this matter has not. Thus, the head of the Bank of France said Wednesday that "the time is not to fold stimulate the economy."
On Friday at 09:00 (GMT) will be presented the most important data for the level of business activity in key sectors of the economy of the Eurozone in March. There is expected growth of business activity in the services sector and the manufacturing sector of the economy. Earlier on Friday, also should pay attention to the publication at 06:30 and 08:30 (GMT) on the French GDP data for the first quarter and the index of business activity in Germany in March. Thus, on Friday published a number of important macro data for the Eurozone, which will cause a surge in volatility and trading in euro, including a pair of EUR / USD.
In the center of the attention of investors today will be the speech at 12:45 (GMT) of Fed chief Janet Yellen. In addition, if she will give a signal to accelerate the pace of increase in US interest rates, the dollar may be supported in the currency market.

Technical analysis
The EUR / USD rose sharply this month. Despite the interest rate rise in the US dollar weakened significantly in the currency market. The growth of EUR / USD pair reached March nearly 230 points. Indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the daily, weekly, monthly charts were developed on long positions.
The pair came close to the strong resistance level 1.0820 (EMA200 on the daily chart). However, to break through the 1.0820 level EUR / USD pair will not be easy. Any change in the Fed’s sentiment quickly returns the positive momentum that will lead to its growth over the currency market.
In this case, reduction in the EUR / USD below support levels 1.0760 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1.0735 (EMA200 the 1-hour chart) return it to the downtrend. Nearest goal - to support levels 1.0675 (EMA200 and the lower line of the rising channel on 4-hour chart), 1.0615 (the lower line of the rising channel on the daily chart).
Only in the case of consolidation above the level of 1.0820 is possible to speak about the future growth of the EUR / USD in the rising channel on the daily chart, the upper limit of it is held near the level of 1.1000.
Uncertainty about the upcoming elections in France will hold back until the euro and the pair EUR / USD.

Support levels: 1.0760, 1.0735, 1.0675, 1.0615, 1.0530, 1.0485
Resistance levels: 1.0820
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[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: spread between oil prices and quotations of the Canadian dollar_24/03/2017

Current dynamics

After the Republicans proposed to postpone the vote in the US Congress on the health bill on Friday, the dollar adjusted and partially regained its positions in the foreign exchange market. It seems that the Republican Party has not yet received the support of the necessary number of congressmen in the preliminary negotiations. In view of this, it is likely that today, right up to the beginning of voting on the project (during the American trading session), the same picture can be repeated in the dynamics of the dollar. The US dollar has corrected after yesterday's decline and some market participants will want to re-enter short positions on it during today's European session. Nevertheless, with respect to the pair USD / CAD it is necessary to be careful when making sales of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar.
At 15:30, 16:30 and 16:45 (GMT + 3) a number of important macroeconomic indicators for the US and Canada are published, including the most important inflation indices - consumer price indices in Canada for February. The consumer price index is a key indicator of the level of inflation. The tendency of the Bank of Canada to tighten or mitigate monetary policy directly depends on it. The higher the value of the index, the higher the chances of raising the key rate in Canada and the higher the value of the Canadian dollar. According to the forecast, the index rose in February by 0.2% (+ 2.1% in annual terms). If the forecast is confirmed or the data will be better, the Canadian dollar will get support in the foreign exchange market.
It is worth, however, pay attention to the spread in the quotes of the Canadian dollar and oil prices. Despite a significant decline in oil prices in March (about 11.5%), the Canadian dollar avoided a fall in the pair USD / CAD. The reverse correlation of the pair USD / CAD with oil prices is approximately 92% and the Canadian dollar, remaining the commodity currency, is sensitive to oil quotes.
In case of a successful outcome of voting in the US Congress on the bill on changes in the US healthcare system, the pair USD / CAD can grow significantly.
Today, as well as yesterday, the highest volatility in the financial markets is expected, especially during the American trading session, which must be taken into account when making trading decisions.

Support and resistance levels

Since May 2011, the pair USD / CAD is in an upward long-term trend. At the beginning of 2016, having peaked near 1.4600, the pair USD / CAD adjusted sharply, falling to support level 1.2630 by May 2016 (Fibonacci level 38.2% correction to the pair's upward wave growth since May 2011). At the moment, the pair USD / CAD is trading near the most important level of 1.3385 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%). The pair USD / CAD keeps positive dynamics above support levels 1.3225 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1.3305 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). The indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour and daily charts are on the buyer’s side.
Fundamental factors (the difference in the direction of the monetary policies of the central banks of the US and Canada, falling oil prices) also contribute to the growth of the pair USD / CAD. Fixing the pair above the resistance levels 1.3385 (Fibonacci level 23.6%), 1.3410 (local highs) will create prerequisites for further growth of the pair in the medium term and return to the uptrend.
In the short term, a decline to support level 1.3305 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) is possible. The breakdown of the support level 1.3225 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will create risks for further reduction of the pair with a "long" target of 1.2630 (Fibonacci level of 38.2% and EMA144 on the weekly chart).
Support levels: 1.3305, 1.3280, 1.3225
Resistance levels: 1.3360, 1.3385, 1.3410

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 1.3380. Stop-Loss 1.3330. Take-Profit 1.3410, 1.3500, 1.3600
Sell Stop 1.3330. Stop-Loss 1.3380. Take-Profit 1.3305, 1.3280, 1.3225

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[TifiaFX]

S&P500: Trump reforms "stall" _27/03/2017

Current dynamics

The failure of the Trump administration with the draft of the new health law forced many investors to question its ability to fulfill Trump's promises during the campaign to support business in the United States. As you know, on Friday the Republicans withdrew from the vote in the US Congress the question of a new health bill, without enlisting the support of the majority of congressmen. Doubts about the success of the Trump administration began to appear at the beginning of last week. As a result, over the past week, the leading US stock indices recorded the largest drop in the last few months.
Reform of the health system was considered the first real test of the capabilities of the new administration. And now failure can cast doubt on the other legislative projects of Trump.
Doubts about Trump's ability to pursue a stimulating policy that would support the growth of stocks and the yield of government bonds caused a drop not only in the indices, but also in the dollar across the entire foreign exchange market.
The ICE dollar index fell on Friday to a minimum since mid-January 99,627 against 99,760 on Thursday. The S & P500 index fell 0.1% on Friday to 2,343.98 points, and by the end of the week, it fell 1.4%, which was its worst result since November. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.3% to 20596. Its weekly decline reached 1.5% and was the highest since September. Prices for US Treasury bonds rose, and the yield on 10-year bonds fell to 2.396% from 2.418% on Thursday.
Nevertheless, Donald Trump tried to reassure investors, saying, "we will undertake a very large effort for a significant reduction in taxes and tax reform. This will be our next step. "
In general, the positive background for stock indices remains. Despite the rollback (in absolute terms), the indices increased significantly in annual terms. So, the S & P500 index, despite weekly losses, since the beginning of the year is gaining 3.8%, DJIA has grown since the beginning of the year by 3.3%.
Now investors will closely follow the next steps of the administration of the US president. The Fed has already made it clear that there will be only two rate hikes this year, i.e. one more, and not three, as planned earlier. The Fed's inclination to soft monetary policy, as well as Trump's statements that the country needs a cheaper dollar, are supporting the US stock market.

Support and resistance levels

With the opening of today's trading day, the S & P500 index fell sharply. The recall of the bill on health care from the Congress and its withdrawal from the vote collapsed the dollar and major US indices. The S & P500 index broke a short-term support level of 2348.0 and a support level of 2332.0 (EMA50 on the daily chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.
The breakdown of the 2348.0, 2332.0 levels increased the risk of further decline in the index. The objectives of this decline are the levels of 2258.0 (December highs), 2265.0 (EMA144 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the growth of the index from the level of 1830.0 (low of 2016) to the level of 2400.0 (highs of 2017)).
Restoring of the index above the level of 2355.0 return the positive dynamics to index S&P500 and will point to the recent highs near the level of 2400.0.
The breakdown of support levels of 2228.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 2181.0 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2%) will cancel the bullish trend of the index.
Support levels: 2320.0, 2265.0, 2228.0, 2181.0
Resistance levels: 2332.0, 2348.0, 2355.0, 2400.0

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2318.0. Stop-Loss 2333.0. Objectives 2265.0, 2228.0, 2181.0
Buy Stop 2333.0. Stop-Loss 2318.0. Objectives 2348.0, 2355.0, 2370.0, 2385.0, 2400.0

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[TifiaFX]

XAG/USD: The dollar is recovering after the fall
28/03/2017

Current dynamics

On Monday, the dollar fell sharply in the foreign exchange market. On Friday, Republicans withdrew their bill from Congress to abolish Obamacare, as it did not receive support among Congressmen. Among investors, fears have increased that the US president's administration will be able to implement the promised tax cuts and increase infrastructure costs.
The dollar index of the Wall Street Journal, which tracks the value of the US dollar against a basket of 16 currencies, fell 0.6% to 89.65, the lowest level since November 11. Earlier, the dollar actively grew in the market in anticipation that the new administration of the US president will resort to fiscal stimulus measures of the economy, increasing budget expenditures, and creating prerequisites for a faster increase in interest rates.
The growth of uncertainty in the financial markets leads to the withdrawal of investor funds in safer assets, such as government bonds, yen, precious metals. So, on Monday April gold futures rose 0.6% to 1255.70 US dollars per ounce, having finished trading at the maximum level since February 27. However, the spot price for silver rose to $ 18.11 per troy ounce, the highest for the last 3 weeks.
The price of precious metals usually grows during periods of market or political uncertainty.
Moreover, the weakening of the dollar and the appreciation of precious metals is not hampered even by the decision of the Fed to raise the rate this month and verbal intervention by representatives of the Fed on the high probability of a multiple rate increase this year. Representatives of the Federal Reserve have repeatedly signaled that the rate increase this year is likely to continue in connection with the strengthening of the economy and against expectations of an increase in inflation to the target of 2%, as well as an increase in US employment. Nevertheless, the prices for gold and silver are growing, and the dollar is getting cheaper.

Support and resistance levels

After a sharp decline since the beginning of the month, the pair XAG / USD was able to regain its upward momentum and is growing for the third consecutive week. The pair XAG/USD broke through the important resistance levels 17.37 (EMA200 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level 38.2% of correction to the pair growth from the end of December 2016 and the level 15.72), 17.53 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 17.77 (Fibonacci level 23,6%) and continues to grow to an important resistance level 18.40 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level 0%).
The OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily, weekly, monthly charts are on the buyers’ side.
Against the backdrop of a weak dollar, the upward trend in the pair XAG / USD persists. The nearest target is level 18.40.
The reverse scenario implies a breakdown of support levels of 17.70, 17.61, 17.53 and a decline to support level of 17.37. The break of 17.37 level raises the risk of further decline in the pair XAG / USD and its return to the downtrend with a long target of 15.72 (low of 2016).
Support levels: 17.92, 17.77, 17.61, 17.53, 17.37
Resistance levels: 18.11, 18.40, 18.98

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 17.97. Stop-Loss 18.10. Take-Profit 17.92, 17.77, 17.61, 17.53, 17.37
Buy Stop 18.10. Stop-Loss 17.97. Take-Profit 18.20, 18.40, 18.98

[TifiaFX]

Brent: Trump stimulates oil production in the US_29/03/2017

Current dynamics

On Tuesday, Donald Trump signed a decree to repeal measures to protect the environment, which was introduced by Barack Obama. On the one hand, this shows the determination of Trump in pursuing his new economic policy and the desire to return the economy to traditional sources of energy, such as oil and coal. On the other hand, the decree is even more motivating for US oil and gas companies to increase oil production and accelerate the drilling of new wells. Last week, the number of active drilling oil rigs in the US increased by another 21 units to 625 units. The number of active drilling rigs in the US has been increasing since June for several months in a row, doubling after reaching a minimum in May last year.
The active growth in oil production, primarily in the US, negates OPEC's efforts to contain the fall in oil prices against the backdrop of an overabundance of oil supply in the world.
The active growth of oil prices, observed immediately after the signing of this agreement, stalled already at the beginning of this year. Since the beginning of March, there has been a sharp drop in oil prices. Moreover, the price decline occurs against the background of the weakening of the dollar. If the dollar begins to recover its positions in the foreign exchange market, then the fall in oil prices may accelerate.
Presented late last night, the report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that oil reserves in the US for the past week increased by 1.9 million barrels. The official report of the Energy Information Administration of the US Energy Ministry will be published today at 14:30 (GMT). The stock is expected to grow by 1.183 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products over the past week. Reserves of oil in the US are growing, again reaching a record high over the past 80 years, above 533 million barrels. Oil production in the US has been growing for the fifth consecutive week (up to 9.13 million barrels per day). If the data from the US Energy Ministry, which will be presented today, will be confirmed, then oil prices may continue to fall. The US Energy Ministry expects further growth in oil production in the country. And this means that oil prices, if they do not continue to fall, will not grow actively.

Support and resistance levels

The price of Brent crude oil, having fallen from the maximum annual markings near the level of 57.30, stabilized near key support levels 51.50 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.30 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to decrease from 65.30 from June 2015 to absolute minimums 2016 Year near the 27.00 mark). To determine the further dynamics of the price, new drivers are needed. The active growth of oil production and the growth of stocks in the US, as well as the Fed's inclination to a slower but gradual increase in the interest rate in the US, put pressure on oil prices.
If OPEC does not extend the agreement on limiting oil production, which ends in June, the price of oil will begin to decline rapidly. Fundamental drivers for the growth of oil prices yet.
In the case of breakdown of the support level of 50.30, the decline in the price of Brent oil may accelerate.
Only when the price returns above the resistance levels of 53.00 (June and October highs), 53.25 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), you can again seriously consider long positions.
Support levels: 51.50, 50.70, 50.30, 50.00, 49.00
Resistance levels: 52.29, 53.00, 53.25, 54.50, 55.30, 55.90, 57.30

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 51.40. Stop-Loss 51.95. Take-Profit 50.70, 50.30, 50.00, 49.00
Buy Stop 51.95. Stop-Loss 51.40. Take-Profit 52.29, 53.00, 53.25, 54.50, 55.30, 55.90, 57.30

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[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: UK GDP in Q4_30 / 03/2017
Current dynamics
Nine months after the vote for secession from the EU, British Prime Minister Theresa May signed Wednesday a decree on the beginning of the British divorce proceedings with the European Union. The beginning of the two-year period of Brexit negotiations based on Article 50 of the Lisbon Agreement is laid. Now Great Britain will try to soften for itself the conditions of this process. Negotiations should begin within a few weeks; the most cautious forecast is until the end of the second quarter. The uncertainty of this process puts pressure on the pound.
On the other hand, Fed officials continue to signal that the US central bank is still prepared to continue raising rates this year. In their opinion, the Fed will raise the rate 2-3 times more this year.
Earlier in the week, the dollar appreciably weakened in the foreign exchange market after the Republicans withdrew from the Congress a bill on healthcare on Friday. This raised doubts about the Trump administration's ability to implement tax reforms and plans to stimulate the economy. However, published on Tuesday, data showed that consumer confidence in the US reached the highest level in 16 years. The dollar received support and was able to recover significantly in the foreign exchange market. Now, according to CME Group's data, the probability of a rate hike at the June Fed meeting is 53%.
It seems that market participants are not yet fully aware of the Fed's determination in this matter. As the June approach approaches, as the positive data from the United States come in, the dollar will gradually grow stronger in the foreign exchange market.
Tomorrow at 08:30 (GMT) will be published data on UK GDP for the 4th quarter. The country ranks first on the annual percentage growth of GDP among all the strongest economies of the world, and the share of the UK's GDP in the world GDP is about 4% (2nd place in Europe after Germany). GDP is considered an indicator of the overall state of the British economy. The growing trend of GDP is considered positive for GBP, and vice versa. An annual increase of 2.0% is expected. If GDP data turn out to be weak, this will directly affect the decision of the Bank of England to reduce the interest rate in the UK. And this will put downward pressure on the pound. The main factors that can force the Bank of England to lower the rate are a weak GDP growth, the labor market. However, the growing inflation in the country will have the opposite effect on the Bank of England in its decision to lower the interest rate. Positive macroeconomic reports of recent weeks suggest that the UK economy did not collapse after the referendum.
A strong GDP report will have the most positive impact on the pound's position and the British stock market.
Conversely, weak GDP will have a negative impact on the pound's quotes, including in the GBP / USD pair.
And today the attention of market participants will be focused on data on GDP and inflation indicators of the US for the 4th quarter. Strong GDP and inflation indexes can significantly reduce the doubts of market participants in the likelihood of a rate hike in the US already at the May or June meeting of the Fed.

Support and resistance levels
The pound continues to remain under pressure, and the GBP / USD pair is in a long-term downtrend since July 2014. Since yesterday, the GBP / USD pair has formed a short-term range between the support level of 1.2392 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and resistance level 1.2447 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
The pair GBP / USD growth in the period of 1-2 weeks is limited by resistance level 1.2600 (EMA144 on the daily chart).
Negative dynamics of the pair GBP / USD prevails. If the US GDP (published today) turns out to be strong, and the UK GDP (published tomorrow) will be weaker than the forecast (2.0%), then the GBP / USD pair will definitely break through the short-term support level 1.2392 and go towards the nearest support level 1.2150 (March lows) .
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily and 4-hour charts turned to the side of sellers.
The reverse scenario is related to breakdown of the short-term resistance level 1.2447 and further growth to the level of 1.2600.
The different focus of monetary policies in the US and the UK, the withdrawal from the EU are powerful fundamental factors that prevent the GBP / USD pair from recovering significantly. Negative fundamental background creates prerequisites for further decline in the pair GBP / USD, the negative dynamics of the pair GBP / USD is still predominant.
In case of breakdown of the local support level 1.2392, the pair GBP / USD decline will continue.
Support levels: 1.2392, 1.2340, 1.2150, 1.2000
Resistance levels: 1.2447, 1.2470, 1.2500, 1.2600, 1.2700, 1.2800

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.2380. Stop-Loss 1.2460. Take-Profit 1.2340, 1.2150, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.2460. Stop-Loss 1.2380. Take-Profit 1.2470, 1.2500, 1.2600, 1.2700, 1.2800

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: the euro remains under pressure_31/03/2017

Current dynamics

During the day of active decline from the level of 1.0863, the pair EUR / USD lost about 1.8% (190 points). There is a small recovery in the opening of today's European session; however, the negative dynamics of the pair remains. This week, the most important macro data on the United States was published. The level of consumer confidence in the US in March reached a maximum in 16 years (125.6), surpassing the forecast of economists (114.0). Annual data on US GDP and price indices for the fourth quarter, published on Thursday, also proved very positive. GDP grew in the fourth quarter on updated data by 2.1%.
Today we are waiting for publication of important macroeconomic indicators for the USA, including inflation indices of personal consumption expenditure for February, from 15:30 to 17:00 (GMT + 3). However, gradually attention of investors is switching to the publication next Friday of data from the US labor market for March.
GDP growth, inflation dynamics and the labor market are key factors for the Fed in determining the need for and the rate of tightening (or easing) monetary policy in the US.
The US economy is recovering steadily after the crisis of 2007, and consumers are confident in the economic development of the country. Positive macro statistics coming from the US, as well as verbal intervention by the Fed representatives with regard to a further gradual increase in the interest rate in the US, contribute to the strengthening of the dollar.
On the part of the key representatives of the ECB, there are statements about the need to continue to maintain extra soft monetary policy in the Eurozone. The difference in monetary policy in the US and the Eurozone will continue to be the determining factor in the medium-term dynamics of the EUR / USD pair.

Support and resistance levels

The pair broke through the important support levels 1.0820 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1.0765 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart, EMA144 on the daily chart). At the beginning of today's European session, the pair EUR / USD is trying to stabilize at support level 1.0695 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). Bonding above this level will mean the EUR / USD pair's return to the upward correction trend, which began in January.
A further decline will mean the end of the upward correction and the EUR / USD pair's return to the downtrend with the targets of 1.0615, 1.0530, 1.0485, and 1.0350. Long positions can be considered only when the pair returns above the level of 1.0765.
If the EUR / USD pair returns to the zone above the level of 1.0820, you can return to the purchases with medium-term objectives of 1.0950, 1.1000. For now, the negative background for the EUR / USD pair prevails.
Support levels: 1.0695, 1.0675, 1.0615, 1.0530, 1.0485
Resistance levels: 1.0765, 1.0820, 1.0865, 1.0905

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.0670. Stop-Loss 1.0720. Objectives 1.0615, 1.0530, 1.0485
Buy Stop. Stop-Loss 1.0670. Objectives 1.0765, 1.0820, 1.0865, 1.0890, 1.0905, 1.0940

[TifiaFX]

USD/JPY: the beginning of the new fiscal year in Japan_03/04/2017
Current dynamics
The new trade week that has begun is connected with important events in the world of international finance and the publication of important macroeconomic data. One of the focus of traders will be the publication on Wednesday (21:00 GMT + 3) of the protocol from the last March meeting of the FOMC, at which FOMC raised the rate by 0.25% to a level of 1.0%.
Markets have already played this event; however, investors will be interested to see the text of the minutes of this meeting. As a rule, FOMC meetings discuss, among other things, a schedule for raising (or lowering) the basic interest rate. The Fed comments to the last rate increase in March indicated a two-time rate increase this year. If the FOMC protocols contain signals for the possibility of three or four rate increases, the dollar can receive significant support. Therefore, the importance of publishing this protocol and its impact on the dollar quotes is difficult to overestimate.
At the same time, it is worth paying attention to the fact that in Japan, March 31 ended the fiscal year. Japanese taxpayers, including export companies, which completed the annual period of repatriation of capital to Japan, for the most part have already paid taxes. In this regard, the pressure on the yen, including the active purchases on the Japanese stock market, which occur, usually at the beginning of the new fiscal year in the first half of April, can dramatically increase. The Japanese stock index Nikkey225, which has a high correlation with the pair USD / JPY, may begin to grow actively until April 15.
In this regard, it is worth being prepared for the growth of the pair USD / JPY, especially if it is accompanied by the strengthening of the US dollar in the foreign exchange market.
From the news for today, we are waiting for data from the USA. At 14:00 (GMT) will be published index of gradual acceleration of inflation, as well as the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from ISM, which is an important indicator of the state of the US economy as a whole, for March. A number of representatives of the Federal Reserve gives a speech today (scheduled for today after 14:30 GMT). The US continues to receive positive macro statistics. Recently, representatives of the Fed sound hawkish notes regarding the plan for tightening monetary policy in the US. It is likely that today will not be an exception in the rhetoric of the representatives of the Fed. And if published earlier macro data on the US will again be positive, then the dollar will receive double support today.

Support and resistance levels
Earlier this week, the pair USD / JPY rebounded from the 110.10 support level (EMA144 on the weekly chart) and is trying to develop an upward trend, attempting to break through the short-term resistance level of 111.50 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
USD / JPY managed to gain a foothold above the important support level of 111.15 (EMA200 on the daily chart). The pair is growing in the rising short-term channel on the 1-hour chart and is currently near the lower border of this channel.
On the daily chart, the OsMA and Stochastic indicators shifted to the buyers’ side. In case of breakdown of the resistance level 111.50, the pair USD / JPY may continue to the resistance level 112.60 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and the upper limit of the rising channel on the 1-hour chart). In case of consolidation of the pair USD / JPY above this level, the risks of further growth of the pair to the 115.00 level will increase.
The reverse scenario is related to the breakdown of the support level at 111.15 (EMA200 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the pair growth since August of last year and the level of 99.90) and the resumption of the decline. The nearest target is level 110.10.
We follow the dynamics of the index of the Japanese stock market Nikkey225. The growth of the index on the background of active purchases at the beginning of the new financial year will pull the yen's sales, including in the pair USD / JPY. Positive dynamics of the pair USD / JPY is maintained, while the pair is above the support level of 111.15.
Support levels: 111.15, 110.10, 109.00
Resistance levels: 111.50, 112.60, 113.80, 115.00

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 111.50. Stop Loss 111.10. Take-Profit 112.00, 112.60, 113.80, 115.00
Sell Stop 111.10. Stop Loss 111.50. Take-Profit 110.80, 110.10, 109.00, 108.25, 106.50

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: interest rate unchanged_04/04/2017
Current dynamics
As expected, today the RBA did not change the interest rate in Australia, leaving it at 1.5%. The RBA's accompanying statement noted that the labor market has lost momentum, and inflation may grow slower than expected. As the RBA Governor Philip Lowe noted, "some indicators of the labor market have recently weakened." Weakening consumer spending and lowering inflation, as well as the continuing sharp rise in house prices, amid weakening labor market indicators, are the main risk factors for the RBA and the Australian economy. In this regard, economists believe, the RBA will refrain from changing interest rates in the country for the time being.
At this decision of the RBA, the Australian dollar reacted sharply lower, including in the pair AUD / USD. At the beginning of today's European session, the decline in the AUD / USD pair continued.
The different focus of monetary policies in the US and Australia will facilitate the flow of investment funds from the Australian dollar to the US dollar and further weakening of the AUD / USD.

Support and resistance levels
For the first two days of the new trading month, the AUD / USD pair has already lost 0.85%. If the decline continues at the same active pace, by the end of April, the AUD / USD pair will be seen near the 0.7300 mark. However, much in the dynamics of the AUD / USD pair will also depend on the dynamics of the US dollar. Tomorrow (18:00 GMT) the protocol will be published from the last March FOMC meeting, at which the rate was raised by 0.25% to a level of 1.0%. If the FOMC protocols contain signals for the possibility of three or four rate increases, the US dollar can receive significant support in the foreign exchange market.
The pair AUD / USD broke through important short-term support levels of 0.7632 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.7622 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and continues to decline to support level 0.7540 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.
In case of deeper decline and breakdown of the support level of 0.7513 (38.2% Fibonacci level), the risks of further reduction of the AUD / USD pair will increase with a long-term target near the support level of 0.7155 (May lows, December 2016).
An alternative scenario for growth will become relevant in case of consolidation of the AUD / USD pair above the resistance levels 0.7622, 0.7632.
Support levels: 0.7540, 0.7513, 0.7448
Resistance levels: 0.7622, 0.7632, 0.7680, 0.7740, 0.7760, 0.7800, 0.7840

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7585. Take-Profit 0.7540, 0.7515, 0.7460
Buy Stop 0.7585. Stop-Loss 0.7555. Take-Profit 0.7622, 0.7632, 0.7680, 0.7740

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: PMI for the UK service sector_05/04/2017

Current dynamics
Published today at 11:30 (GMT + 3), the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the UK service sector for March came out at 55 (the forecast was 53.5). The publication of the index caused a sharp rise in the pound on the market. The pair GBP / USD jumped as the index was published to the level of 1.2489.
Last week, a revised report on UK GDP for the fourth quarter (+ 1.9% in annual terms against + 2.0% on updated data) was presented. As a result, the pound reacted to the publication of the report on GDP decline. The two previous sessions of the GBP / USD pair were actively declining. Today's publication of the index (PMI) for the services sector may have a short-term impact on the GBP / USD pair.
The pound is under pressure on the background of the beginning of negotiations on Brexit. Last week, British Prime Minister Theresa May signed a decree on the beginning of the British divorce proceedings with the European Union. The beginning of the two-year period of Brexit negotiations on the basis of Article 50 of the Lisbon Agreement is laid. Negotiations should begin within a few weeks. Nevertheless, positive macroeconomic reports from the last weeks coming from the UK indicate that the economy of the country did not collapse after the referendum on Brexit. However, the referendum hit hard on the pound's positions, which lost nearly 20% paired with the dollar to date. The pressure on the pound and the GBP / USD pair is maintained.
The focus of investors' attention on Wednesday will be the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of the minutes from the March FOMC meeting, at which the Fed raised the rate by 0.25% to a level of 1.0%. If the FOMC protocols contain signals for the possibility of three or four rate increases, the dollar can receive significant support.
Also worth paying attention to the publication at 13:45, 14:00 (GMT) of business activity indexes in the US services sector for March and ADP report on employment in the private sector of the US economy. Many market participants consider it a harbinger of the official report on the labor market, which is published this Friday. Therefore, the reaction to the publication of the ADP report is also expected to be high.

Support and resistance levels
The pound continues to remain under pressure, and the GBP / USD pair is in a long-term downtrend since July 2014. Despite the fact that positive short-term dynamics predominate, in the medium term, the pressure on the GBP / USD pair will continue as long as the pair is below resistance level 1.2600 (EMA144 on the daily chart).
The indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the daily chart continue to remain on the side of sellers.
If the GBP / USD pair returns to the zone below the level of 1.2465 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), its decline may resume.
The reverse scenario is related with the growth above the level of 1.2465 and further growth to the level of 1.2600.
The different focus of monetary policies in the US and the UK, the exit from the EU are powerful fundamental factors that prevent the GBP / USD pair from recovering significantly. Negative fundamental background creates prerequisites for further decline in the pair GBP / USD, the negative dynamics of the pair GBP / USD is still predominant.
Support levels: 1.2465, 1.2412, 1.2390, 1.2340, 1.2150, 1.2000
Resistance levels: 1.2490, 1.2600, 1.2700, 1.2800

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.2455. Stop-Loss 1.2495. Take-Profit 1.2412, 1.2390, 1.2340, 1.2150
Buy Stop 1.2495. Stop-Loss 1.2455. Take-Profit 1.2535, 1.2600, 1.2700, 1.2800

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: revision of the ECB policy is not required at this stage_06/04/2017

Current dynamics
ECB President Mario Draghi said today that "the recovery of the Eurozone economy has intensified, it has become more homogeneous", however, "it is too early to declare success". Draghi also added that "there are no reasons to refuse current benchmarks regarding interest rates", "the revision of the ECB policy at this stage is not required."
In response to a statement by Mario Draghi, the euro fell sharply in the foreign exchange market. The pair EUR / USD lost about 50 points in the moment, however, by the closing of the hour it was able to recover by half.
After yesterday's publication of the minutes from the last meeting of the FOMC, which caused a violent reaction in the foreign exchange market, today there is a mixed dynamics. However, the dollar remains the favorite. The Fed, as follows from the protocol, intends to reduce its balance, amounting to 4.5 trillion dollars. The portfolio of the Federal Reserve consists of treasury bonds and mortgage securities. Reducing the balance of the Fed means selling government bonds, which will increase their profitability. Even if the Fed does not increase the rate, the Fed's portfolio reduction will cause the dollar to strengthen as the yield of US government bonds rises.
Yesterday, a report from ADP was published that showed that the number of jobs in the private sector increased by 263,000 in March (the forecast was + 180,000 jobs). This suggests that the rate of hiring in the private sector in the US remained high in March, and the labor market in the US is in good shape.
The presented data are extremely important, since, in some way, they can signal that on Friday a strong official report from the US Department of Labor on the state of the labor market in the country will be presented. According to the forecast, an increase in the number of new places created in the non-agricultural sector of the US economy (NFP) by 180,000 is expected (after an increase of 235,000 in February); unemployment should remain at 4.7%.
The monthly increase in new jobs by more than 150,000 points confirms a stable labor market in the US. The state of the labor market, the pace and level of inflation, GDP growth are the main factors for the Fed in determining the need for tightening monetary policy in the US. If the forecast for NFP (+180 000 new jobs) is justified, then expectations of an early increase in the interest rate in the US will increase. This is a positive factor for the dollar. Conversely, a weak report on the labor market will cause a sharp weakening of the dollar. Recently, the situation is that when the weak macro data comes out, the dollar reacts much more strongly than when positive data are released. It is possible that this will happen this time too.

Support and resistance levels
After a sharp weakening at the end of last month, the pair EUR / USD is holding in the range between levels 1.0690, 1.0630. In view of the importance of the events of the current week in determining the future dynamics of the dollar, investors occupied, in the main, a wait-and-see attitude.
The pair broke through the important levels of support 1.0765 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1.0690 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). On the daily chart, the pair EUR / USD moves to the bottom line of the uplink, passing near the level of 1.0550 (November lows).
If the pair EUR / USD returns to the zone above the levels of 1.0690, 1.0700 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), then the scenario to decline to the level of 1.0550 will be canceled, and the pair may continue to rise to the levels of 1.0765 (EMA144), 1.0820 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily and weekly charts were deployed to short positions.
Meanwhile, the negative dynamics of the EUR / USD pair is prevailing.

Support levels: 1.0600, 1.0550, 1.0500, 1.0485
Resistance levels: 1.0690, 1.0700, 1.0765, 1.0820, 1.0865, 1.0905

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.0625. Stop-Loss 1.0685. Objectives 1.0600, 1.0550, 1.0500, 1.0485
Buy Stop 1.0685. Stop-Loss 1.0625. The objectives are 1.0700, 1.0725, 1.0755, 1.0770, 1.0820, 1.0865, and 1.0905

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: deficit of the foreign trade balance of the UK increased_07/04/2017

Current dynamics
The deficit of foreign trade in goods in the UK in February (with correction) rose to 12.5 billion pounds (forecast was 10.7 billion pounds). At the same time, the foreign trade deficit for January was revised to 12.0 billion pounds from 10.8 billion pounds. Manufacture in the manufacturing sector of the UK in February fell by another 0.1% after a decrease of 0.9% in January. The level of industrial production in annual terms in February fell to 2.8% from 3.2% in January (the forecast was + 3.7%).
Such disenchanted investors data led today (08:30 GMT) by the British Office of National Statistics. In response to the data presented, the pound fell in the foreign exchange market. The pair GBP / USD lost 30 points in a moment. And the pressure on the pound and the GBP / USD pair persists.
Today in the foreign exchange market as a whole, the negative background prevails after it became known about the US missile strikes against Syria. There was a sharp increase in demand for yen and precious metals. These assets act as shelters during a political or financial crisis on the world stage.
June gold futures on the basis of yesterday's trading on COMEX rose by 0.4% to 1253.30 dollars per ounce. During the Asian session, the price-spot jumped above the level of 1265.00.
The pound is under pressure amid Brexit talks, when British Prime Minister Theresa May signed a decree last week to launch an official process for Britain's withdrawal from the European Union.
The focus of investors today will be the meeting of US President Donald Trump with Chinese President Xi Jingping and the publication of data from the US labor market in March (12:30 GMT). According to the forecast, an increase in the number of new places created in the non-agricultural sector of the US economy (NFP) by 180,000 is expected (after an increase of 235,000 in February); unemployment should remain at 4.7%. If the average hourly earnings grow by more than 0.2% (as it was in February), the report will show a very stable labor market in the US, which will help to strengthen the positive sentiment of investors regarding the rapid rate increase in the US. This will cause the growth of the dollar. Conversely, a weak labor market report will weaken the US dollar, including in the GBP / USD pair.

Support and resistance levels
Starting in October, the pair GBP / USD traded mostly in the range between 1.2765 (EMA200 on the daily chart) and 1.2110. The peculiar midline of this range is the level of 1.2420. Currently, this line is the EMA50 line on the daily chart and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart. In the short term, the level of 1.2420 is a strong support level. Also on the 4-hour chart formed a tapering triangle, and the price is currently on the lower edge of the triangle.
Despite the indications OsMA and Stochastic, recommending sales, the rebound from the current level is likely to follow. Short-term objectives may be the levels of 1.2470, 1.2490, through which the upper line of the converging triangle passes. In case of breakdown of the level of 1.2490, further growth of the GBP / USD pair should be expected with the nearest targets of 1.2550 (April highs), 1.2590 (EMA144 on the daily chart). A more distant goal is the level of 1.2765.
If the GBP / USD pair returns to the zone below the level of 1.2420, its decline may resume. The nearest target is support level 1.2110.
The different focus of monetary policies in the US and the UK, the exit from the EU are powerful fundamental factors that put pressure on the GBP / USD pair.
Negative dynamics of the pair GBP / USD so far prevails.
Support levels: 1.2420, 1.2390, 1.2340, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance levels: 1.2470, 1.2490, 1.2550, 1.2590, 1.2700, 1.2800

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.2390. Stop-Loss 1.2450. Take-Profit 1.2340, 1.2150, 1.2100
Buy Stop 1.2450. Stop-Loss 1.2390. Take-Profit 1.2470, 1.2490, 1.2550, 1.2590, 1.2700.

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: inflation in the UK has risen sharply_10 / 04/2017

Current dynamics
The ambiguous US macro statistics released last week, as well as the growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after the US missile strike in Syria, have led to an increase in volatility in the foreign exchange market.
Data on the US labor market, published last Friday, showed that the unemployment rate in March fell to 4.5%. However, the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector increased by 98,000, while economists were expecting 175,000 jobs.
The dollar declined after the publication of the data, however, was able to regain its position in the foreign exchange market after the president of the Fed-New York, William Dudley, said that the Fed will begin to reduce its balance towards the end of the year. The portfolio of assets of the Federal Reserve is 4.5 billion dollars, and such actions will lead to an increase in the value of the dollar against bond sales and the growth of their yield. Dudley believes that a reduction in the Fed's portfolio will not lead to a slowdown in the rate of interest rates. Such actions of the Fed should lead to an increase in the value of the dollar and attract investors to its purchases.
Many economists equate the reduction in the Fed's balance sheet to a tightening of monetary policy, and this, as a rule, leads to an increase in the value of the dollar.
The pair GBP / USD hit on Friday under double pressure after the publication of disappointing data on industrial production in the UK for February.
This week, market participants will follow the UK inflation data, which will be released on Tuesday (08:30 GMT). At its last meeting, the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 0.25%. At the same time, inflation in February reached a maximum in more than three years amid a sharp weakening of the pound (more than 20%) after the referendum for Britain's withdrawal from the EU. One member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the central bank of Great Britain voted for an immediate increase in rates. Other members also signaled the possibility of such an increase in the near future.
Nevertheless, it will be difficult for the Bank of England to take such a step because of the drop in consumer spending amid a sharp weakening of the pound. Consumer spending is one of the key elements of UK GDP.
From the news for today, we are waiting for the speech of Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, which will start at 20:10 (GMT).

Support and resistance levels
On Friday, the pair GBP / USD broke short-term support levels of 1.2450, 1.2415 (EMA200 on 1-hour and 4-hour charts).
The attempt of the upward correction, undertaken by the pair today, stalled near the resistance level 1.2400. The upward correction seems to have the end ahead of time, not reaching the level of resistance 1.2415.
The indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily and weekly charts are on the side of sellers. On the 1-hour chart, the indicators also unfold to short positions.
Negative dynamics of the pair GBP / USD prevails below the level of 1.2415. Only in case of consolidation above the level of 1.2450 can we return to consideration of long positions for the pair GBP / USD.
In case of breakdown at the level of 1.2490, further growth of the GBP / USD pair should be expected with the nearest targets of 1.2550 (April highs), 1.2590 (EMA144 on the daily chart). A more distant goal is the level of 1.2765.
A powerful fundamental factor in favor of short positions on the GBP / USD pair is the different orientation of monetary policies in the US and UK, the exit of the country from the European Union, the official start of which was laid in April.
Support levels: 1.2370, 1.2340, 1.2110, 1.2000
Levels of resistance: 1.2415, 1.2450, 1.2470, 1.2490, 1.2550, 1.2590, 1.2700, 1.2800

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.2415. Take-Profit 1.2370, 1.2340, 1.2150, 1.2100
Buy Stop 1.2415. Stop-Loss 1.2385. Take-Profit 1.2450, 1.2470, 1.2490, 1.2550, 1.2590, 1.2700