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  • Date : 19th August 2019.

    Events to Look Out for This Week.



    Trade worries remain and are expected to keep flip-flopping between risk-off and risk-back-on sentiment. Hopes for more central bank stimulus vies with fears that a number of major economies are simultaneously heading for recession, with a number of developing-world economies with high Dollar debt levels particularly exposed to the shifting financial cycle. Given these fears, further conciliatory remarks are likely from both China and the US with regard to their trade spat. Nevertheless, next week the economic calendar also focuses on the PMI releases globally.
    Monday – 19 August 2019
    • Consumer Price Index and Core (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Euro Area CPI for July is expected to hold at 1.1%y/y in the final July reading from 1.3%y/y in June. Energy price inflation was clearly largely to blame and the core rate fell back to just 0.9%y/y from 1.1%y/y in the previous month. The core is anticipated to remain unchanged as well. With growth slowing down and the improvement on the labour market starting to fizzle out, chances are that inflation will continue to undershoot the ECB’s target range, thus adding to arguments for a comprehensive easing package in September.
    Tuesday – 20 August 2019
    • Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The RBA left rates on hold in its last meeting, after back-to-back rate cuts in June and July, which put the cash rate at a record low of 1.00%, while Governor Lowe said that more easing measures could be needed. Minutes are expected to shed further light regarding future easing stance.
    • Manufacturing Sales (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Manufacturing sales are anticipated to grow 2.0% in June after a 1.6% rebound in shipment values was revealed during May and following a 0.4% decline in April. The surge in transport equipment sales is consistent with the improving economy and as such fits with the BoC’s overall view that the economy is improving after temporary weakness in Q4/Q1.
    Wednesday – 21 August 2019
    • Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada’s CPI did not challenge the outlook for steady BoC policy this year. CPI slowed to a 2.0% y/y pace in June from the lofty 2.4% y/y clip in May. Inflation remains around the 2 percent target, with some recent upward pressure from higher food and automobile prices. Core measures of inflation are also close to 2 percent. Even though CPI inflation will likely dip this year because of the dynamics of gasoline prices and some other temporary factors, the annual and monthly numbers for July are expected to remain steady. As slack in the economy is absorbed and these temporary effects wane, inflation is expected to return sustainably to 2 percent by mid-2020.
    • FOMC Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) – The FOMC minutes, similar to the ECB Reports, provide an assessment as regards the views of the Fed’s policymakers about the interest-setter’s future stance and are usually a cause for FX turbulence.
    Thursday – 22 August 2019
    • Jackson Hole Symposium – Day 1
    • Services and Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:30-08:00) – July PMI readings highlighted manufacturing weakness. This picture is likely to be seen again in the preliminary readings for August, as Manufacturing PMI has been forecast at 46.3 from 46.5 last month, still down from 47.6 in June, and indicates a deepening recession in a sector that has been hit very hard by global trade tensions and no-deal Brexit risks. Meanwhile Services PMI is expected to fall to 52.7 from 53.2.
    • Services and Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – Preliminary Manufacturing are expected to grow in August, to 51.0 from 50.4, as Services PMIs are likely to fall to 51.7 from 53.
    • New Zealand Retail Sales (NZD, GMT 22:45) – Usually considered an index of consumer confidence and overall consumption in the economy, higher retail sales point to higher consumption and hence higher economic growth which is good for the currency.
    Friday- 23 August 2019
    • Jackson Hole Symposium – Day 2
    • Retail Sales ex Autos (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Retail sales are expected to have decreased in Canada, with consensus forecasts suggesting a -0.5% m/m decline should be registered in June and an unchanged ex-autos component at 0.3%. In May, Retail sales were disappointing, falling 0.1% for total sales and declining 0.3% for the ex-autos component. The decline in sales was driven by a 2.0% tumble in food and beverage stores. The report casts some doubt on the resiliency of the consumer sector to the ongoing parade of worrisome geopolitical and trade developments.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

    Comment


    • Date : 20th August 2019.

      MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th August 2019.




      FX News Today

      * Trade talk hopes and expectations of further stimulus measures kept stock markets underpinned during the Asian session.

      * Treasury yields fell back as hopes of fiscal easing were scaled back somewhat.

      * The US administration denied plans to cut payroll taxes to support growth and Germany’s reported contingency plan for a fiscal package in case of a deep recession, are clearly not the central scenario for now.

      * The 10-year rate is down 1.5 bp at 1.591%, JGB yields dipped -0.1 bp to -0.241%.

      * US President Trump called on the Fed to cut rates by “at least 100 basis points“. Fed’s Rosengren meanwhile pushed back against further rate cuts, saying that he is not convinced that slowing trade and global growth will significantly dent the economy.

      * Comments from US Commerce Secretary Ross that the US will delay restrictions imposed on some of Huawei’s business operations helped to underpin sentiment, although.

      * RBA Minutes: The minutes to the early-August RBA policy meeting were released without surprises, affirming its wait-and-see-easing-bias stance while repeating its view that the weaker currency will help exports and tourism.

      * Italian BTPs are underperforming this morning, ahead of PM Conte’s showdown in the Senate, although it seems Salvini’s attempt at a power grab may be backfiring as his coalition partner is trying to form an alliance with opposition parties.

      * Topix and Nikkei are currently up 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. The Hang Seng is up 0.09% but the Shanghai Comp down 0.01%.

      * European stock futures are slightly higher, as are US futures after a largely positive session in Asia.

      * The WTI future is trading at USD 56.30 per barrel.

      Charts of the Day



      Technician’s Corner

      * The Australian dollar has traded firmer and, to a lesser extent, the New Zealand buck. AUDUSD printed a 5-day high, at 0.6795, as did AUDJPY, at 72.36. Among the other main currencies, there has remained a lack of directional impulse. EURUSD has remained settled in the upper 1.1000s, holding below 1.1100, and USDJPY has become anchored around 106.50. The Dollar hasn’t been much affected by US President Trump’s call for the Fed to cut rates by “at least 100 basis points”. Overall investor sentiment is much less frayed that it was last week, with expectations for stimulus in major economies, along with Trump’s partial climbdown in his trade war with China, assuaging recession fears.

      Main Macro Events Today

      * Manufacturing Sales (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Manufacturing sales are anticipated to grow 2.0% in June after a 1.6% rebound in shipment values was revealed during May and following a 0.4% decline in April. The surge in transport equipment sales is consistent with the improving economy and as such fits with the BoC’s overall view that the economy is improving after temporary weakness in Q4/Q1.

      Support and Resistance levels



      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



      Andria Pichidi
      Market Analyst
      HotForex

      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

      Comment


      • Date : 21st August 2019.

        MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st August 2019.




        FX News Today

        * Wall Street suffered another bout of weakness inspired by declines in Treasury yields.

        * The USA500 lost near 0.8% after a late selloff, with the USA30 off 0.66%, ending the recent run of gains.

        * Stocks traded mixed in Asia, while European as well as US futures are posting slight gains ahead of today’s Fed minutes and Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium later in the week.

        * A drop in European rates spilled over to Treasuries, with the long end outperforming. That compressed the yield curve again, one of the main factors behind last Wednesday’s plunge on Wall Street.

        * The markets will remain focused on the Fed today with the release of the minutes from July 30, 31 FOMC with hopes for dovish signals. Nearly 70 bps in easing is expected over the rest of the year.

        * Top negotiators from Japan and the US will meet this week to try and narrow the gaps in ongoing trade talks, but hopes that there will be substantial progress on the key issues agriculture and automobiles seem to be fading.

        * Italian BTPs outperformed yesterday on hopes that new elections can be avoided and that an alternative coalition government can be found to bring at least the 2020 budget underway helped to underpin Italian assets on Tuesday and at least so far there is no sign of contagion risks.

        * Germany meanwhile will sell its first 30-year Bund with a zero coupon, and yields in today’s auction could turn negative for the first time.

        * The AUD remained underpinned by upbeat comments from the RBA on the growth outlook in yesterday’s minutes.

        * The WTI future is trading at USD 56.36 per barrel.

        Charts of the Day



        Technician’s Corner

        * EURUSD bounced to 1.1100 highs on a short covering move, after failing to make any downside progress under Friday’s over 2-week low of 1.1066, along with another Treasury yield lurch lower. The pairing looks to be consolidating losses seen over the past week or so, and with sell-stops now said to be building around the 1.1050 level, a downside break is looking more likely. Not as dovish as expected FOMC minutes on Wednesday could save Euro bulls for now, though with the ECB primed to ease further, Germany poised for fiscal stimulus, the unknown impact of Brexit, and the political crisis in Italy, EURUSD looks set to test the 27-month low of 1.1027 seen on August 1.

        * USDCAD rallied yesterday at 1.3344 a 2-month high, as WTI crude fell $1/bbl to $55.20, and as Canada manufacturing data came in on the soft side. USDCAD later pulled back toward 1.3310 as oil recovered some lost ground. The 200-day MA at 1.3305 becomes support now, after closing above the level on Monday. Resistance is the June 19 top of 1.3383.

        Main Macro Events Today

        * Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada’s CPI did not challenge the outlook for steady BoC policy this year. CPI slowed to a 2.0% y/y pace in June from the lofty 2.4% y/y clip in May. Inflation remains around the 2 percent target, with some recent upward pressure from higher food and automobile prices. Core measures of inflation are also close to 2 percent. Even though CPI inflation will likely dip this year because of the dynamics of gasoline prices and some other temporary factors, the annual and monthly numbers for July are expected to remain steady. As slack in the economy is absorbed and these temporary effects wane, inflation is expected to return sustainably to 2 percent by mid-2020.

        * FOMC Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) – The FOMC minutes, similar to the ECB Reports, provide an assessment as regards the views of the Fed’s policymakers about the interest-setter’s future stance and are usually a cause for FX turbulence.

        Support and Resistance levels



        Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

        Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

        Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


        Andria Pichidi
        Market Analyst
        HotForex

        Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

        Comment


        • Date : 22nd August 2019.

          MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd August 2019.




          FX News Today

          * FOMC minutes did not provide strong clues on the direction of rates.

          * However, the lack of a signal that the Fed’s July rate cut was the start of an easing cycle was enough to eventually weigh on Treasuries.

          * Asian stock markets struggled as investors continued to digest the implications of yesterday’s Fed minutes and trading conditions remained quieter than usual ahead of Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole tomorrow.

          * Yields closed at their highs of the session after holding cheap levels all session. The curve narrowed below 1 bp as the short end underperformed.

          * US President Trump continued to criticize the Fed Chairman, while suggesting the US may strike a deal on trade, but that didn’t prevent US futures from heading south overnight.

          * Topix and Nikkei are currently down -0.13% and -0.09% respectively, despite improvements in PMI readings that were counterbalanced by an as expected decline in the All Industry Index.

          * The WTI future meanwhile fell back to $55.45 per barrel.

          * Brexit: Merkel gives Johnson 30 days to solve Backstop conundrum.

          * Johnson is today expected in Paris, where the tone is likely to be harsher than in Berlin, although both Merkel and Macron have stressed that they are ready for a no-deal Brexit if there is no agreement.

          * The UK curve remains inverted out to the 10-year area.

          Charts of the Day



          Technician’s Corner

          *USDJPY printed a two-day low, at 106.28.The biggest mover, not surprisingly, has been AUDJPY, a forex market barometer of shifting risk-appetite patterns in global markets. The cross was showing a 0.5% loss heading into the London interbank open, and was testing one-week lows at 71.90. Next Support stands at 71.76 and 71.60. Resistance is at the pivot 72.20 level.

          Main Macro Events Today

          * Jackson Hole Symposium – Day 1

          * Services and Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:30-08:00) – July PMI readings highlighted manufacturing weakness. This picture is likely to be seen again in the preliminary readings for August, as Manufacturing PMI has been forecast at 46.3 from 46.5 last month, still down from 47.6 in June, and indicates a deepening recession in a sector that has been hit very hard by global trade tensions and no-deal Brexit risks. Meanwhile, Services PMI is expected to fall to 52.7 from 53.2.

          * Services and Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – Preliminary Manufacturing is expected to grow in August, to 51.0 from 50.4, as Services PMI is likely to fall to 51.7 from 53.

          * New Zealand Retail Sales (NZD, GMT 22:45) – Usually considered an index of consumer confidence and overall consumption in the economy, higher retail sales point to higher consumption and hence higher economic growth which is good for the currency.

          Support and Resistance levels



          Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

          Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


          Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



          Andria Pichidi
          Market Analyst
          HotForex

          Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

          Comment


          • Date : 23rd August 2019.

            MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd August 2019.




            FX News Today
            • A confluence of factors whipped the markets around Thursday heading into the Jackson Hole Symposium and Chair Powell’s comments Friday at 10 ET.
            • Hawkish remarks from George (she dissented against the July easing) and Harker (who votes in 2020) weighed on Treasuries and erased early gains from Wall Street.
            • Minutes from both Fed and ECB meetings were not quite the all out dovish signal that some had been hoping for and comments from Fed members yesterday also showed a degree of caution with regard to further easing measures.
            • The curve in the US steepened again after inverting briefly overnight, the curve flattened and inverted further in Japan.
            • Stock markets across Asia moved mostly higher although gains remained contained by caution.
            • New Zealand’s central bank governor said he could afford to wait before declining on additional easing measures.
            • Onshore Yuan set at its weakest for 11 years.
            • Japanese core consumer inflation at a 2-year low in July.
            • Meanwhile lingering geopolitical trade tensions and political jitters in Hong Kong, Italy and the UK add to an uncertain backdrop. US futures are also cautiously moving higher.
            • The WTI future is trading at USD 55.37 per barrel.
            Charts of the Day


            Technician’s Corner
            • EURUSD returned to 3-week lows of 1.1064 today, after rallying to session highs of 1.1099 following the sub-50 US manufacturing PMI. Negative European yields appear to be taking their toll on the currency, keeping the Dollar in demand in place for relatively high yielding US Treasuries. This has likely been a major factor keeping EURUSD under pressure, especially ahead of likely ECB easing in September, and perceptions that the Fed will not be as aggressive in easing as previously thought. Key EURUSD level is the 27-month low of 1.1027 seen on August 1.
            • USDJPY rallied to 106.64 highs. The risk-sensitive pairing can be expected to consolidate into today’s much anticipated speech from Fed chair Powell, from Jackson Hole.
            • GBPUSD: Sterling had its best single day rally since March 13 against the Dollar. Cable’s high was 1.2273, which is the loftiest level seen since late July. The gains were sparked by comments made by German’s Merkel, who indicated that a solution to the Irish border backstop conundrum is doable by the October-31 Brexit deadline. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson followed this up by saying at his joint press conference with France’s Macron that he was encouraged by his talks in Berlin yesterday, and that a deal, he thinks, can be done ahead of October 31. Macron, said, however, that while he has always respected the UK’s decision to leave the EU, the European project has to be protected, to which the Irish backstop remains an important part of ensuring this. Merkel’s remarks were little more than rhetorical platitudes, though enough to trigger a short squeeze in a heavy shorted currency.
            Main Macro Events Today
            • Jackson Hole Symposium – Day 2
            • Retail Sales ex Autos (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Retail sales are expected to have decreased in Canada, with consensus forecasts suggesting a -0.5% m/m decline should be registered in June and an unchanged ex-autos component at 0.3%. In May, Retail sales were disappointing, falling 0.1% for total sales and declining 0.3% for the ex-autos component. The decline in sales was driven by a 2.0% tumble in food and beverage stores. The report casts some doubt on the resiliency of the consumer sector to the ongoing parade of worrisome geopolitical and trade developments.
            Support and Resistance levels



            Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

            Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

            Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

            Andria Pichidi
            Market Analyst
            HotForex

            Disclaimer:
            This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

            Comment


            • Date : 26th August 2019.

              MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th August 2019.




              As Jackson Hole Symposium winds down, lingering geopolitical trade tensions and political jitters in Hong Kong, Italy and the UK remain on the table to add further to an uncertain backdrop and to weigh on sentiment. From the data perspective, Thursday and Friday are the most data-heavy days with US GDP and Durable Goods, and Inflation releases from Europe and Tokyo.
              Monday – 26 August 2019
              • German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – German IFO business confidence is expected to spike higher at 97.1 after it fell back to 95.7 in the July reading from 97.4 and is now at levels last seen in 2013. The Ifo services reading already fell back 10 points this year to 17.7 in July from 27.8 in December last year. Trade and construction sectors are clearly less optimistic than at the end of 2018.
              • Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to rise 0.2% in July, after a 1.9% figure in June. Transportation orders should rise 0.5%. Boeing orders rose to 31 from 9 in June, with continued weakness due to the hit from problems with the Boeing 737 Max that has prompted buyers to delay new purchase commitments. Vehicle assemblies rose to an 11.6 mln pace from 11.5 mln in June. Durable shipments are expected to be flat, and inventories should rise 0.4%. The I/S ratio is expected to tick up to 1.66 from 1.65 in June.
              Tuesday – 27 August 2019
              • Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 06:00) – German Preliminary Q2 GDP growth is expected to remain unchanged, after it contracted -0.1% q/q on August 14. Annual rates looked better than expected and the economy still expanded 0.4% y/y on a working day adjusted basis, but trade tensions and Brexit uncertainty clearly left their mark.
              • CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Consumer confidence is expected to ease to 133.0 in August from an 8-month high of 135.7 in July. We see a 169.2 current conditions reading, versus 170.9 in July. The expectations index should fall to 1008.8 in June from 112.2, versus an 18-year high of 115.1 in October. Overall, confidence measures remain historically high.
              Thursday – 29 August 2019
              • Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 12:00) – The German HICP inflation is jump to 1.3% y/y for August after it was revised down to 1.1% y/y in July.
              • US Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) – The preliminary Q2 GDP growth is expected to trim to 1.9% from 2.1%, with a $6 bln hike in consumption that accompanies a $2 bln boost for nonresidential investment. A downward revisions is expected of -$5 bln for inventories, -$4 bln for exports, -$3 bln for imports, -$8 bln revision for public construction, -$2 bln residential investment, and -$1 bln for equipment spending.
              • Tokyo CPI and Production Data (JPY, GMT 23:30) – The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected to have slip at 0.7% y/y core in August, and at 0.8% y/y ex Fresh Food. Industrial Production should post a 0.3% grow m/m in July, compared to -3.3% in June.
              Friday – 30 August 2019
              • Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Euro Area flash CPI for August is expected to rise slightly, at 1.1% y/y from 1.0% y/y last month. Eurozone Unemployment rate is anticipated steady at 7.5%.
              • Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada’s economy remained sluggish in Q1, with real GDP rising just 0.4% (q/q, saar) after a 0.3% gain in Q4 (revised from 0.4%). The Q1 growth rate was shy of expectations, but it was far from a shocking result as tepid activity was projected as the economy continued to recover from the oil price shock last year. Meanwhile the Q2 release is expected to be released higher at 0.7% q/q from 0.4% gain in Q1 , due to the strong showing from net exports.The monthly trade report revealed a 14.7% gain in export volumes (q/q, saar) following the 4.1% drop reported in the Q1 GDP report.
              Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

              Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

              Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

              Andria Pichidi
              Market Analyst
              HotForex

              Disclaimer:
              This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

              Comment


              • Date : 27th August 2019.

                MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th August 2019.



                FX News Today
                • It was another 180 for Wall Street as stocks rebounded with broad based gains after Friday’s 2%+ plunge.
                • Trade talk continued to dominate the market narrative.
                • President Trump turned more positive on the prospect of a trade deal with China and investors in Japan were relieved by comments that the US won’t immediately impose tariffs on car imports from Japan.
                • JPN225 gained 1.1% and CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp rose 1.8% and 1.6% amid trade talks hopes and as China’s central bank lowered the Yuan midpoint to a new 11 1/2 year low, but not as low as anticipated.
                • The Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam said her government is able to handle ongoing protests without assistance from Chinese forces.
                • The WTI future is trading at $53.86 per barrel
                • GER30 futures are struggling for direction, US futures are heading south and UK100futures are also firmly in the red after returning from yesterday’s holiday.
                • German Q2 GDP confirmed at -0.1% q/q, as expected, investment fell -0.1%. The main drag, however, not surprisingly came from net exports as exports fell -1.3% q/q.
                Charts of the Day


                Technician’s Corner
                • EURUSD fell from overnight highs of 1.1163, with the bulk of losses coming following weaker German Ifo data (weakest since 2012). The pairing opened the NY session near 1.1120, later easing to a 1.1097 base and it is consolidating at that point since then. The poor EU growth outlook, the upcoming Brexit deadline, trade angst, and ECB easing potential should continue to conspire against the Euro going forward. Support is at Friday’s near one-month low of 1.1052, with Resistance near 1.1160.
                • USDJPY put in an impressive recovery, topping at 106.40 yesterday. Now the Yen has settled lower at 105.70 level, into the London interbank open, with a 0.4% gain versus the Dollar, and a 0.6% rise against the Australian Dollar, which has been the underperformer of the main currency pack. The flight-to-safety dynamic, while modest, has been concomitant with a dip in USA500 futures, and has come despite firmer stock markets in Asia. At prevailing levels the USDJPY is sitting at about the halfway point of the range that was seen on Friday and yesterday.
                Main Macro Events Today
                • CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Consumer confidence is expected to ease to 133.0 in August from an 8-month high of 135.7 in July. We see a 169.2 current conditions reading, versus 170.9 in July. The expectations index should fall to 1008.8 in June from 112.2, versus an 18-year high of 115.1 in October. Overall, confidence measures remain historically high.
                Support and Resistance levels



                Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                Andria Pichidi
                Market Analyst
                HotForex

                Disclaimer:
                This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                Comment


                • Date : 29th August 2019.

                  MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th August 2019.



                  FX News Today
                  • Bunds cautious after hawkish comments from Nowotny, who said the ECB should be prepared to disappoint markets sometimes.
                  • BTPs are rallying after confirmation that acting PM Conte will get a second chance, this time backed by a coalition of PD and Five Star Movement.
                  • Stock markets remained cautious amid the lack of firm news on the US-Sino trade front and waiting to see what impact the latest tariffs will have and what global central banks are doing, with further easing measures expected to be in the pipeline as trade tensions hit the world growth outlook.
                  • US Secretary Steven Mnuchin said US trade officials expect Chinese negotiators to visit Washington, but would confirm whether a previously planned meetinginSeptember will take place.
                  • European and US futures are in the red: In Europe Brexit jitters and the increased risk of a no-deal scenario cloud over the outlook after PM Johnson moved to suspend parliament for a large part of the remaining time until the October 31 Brexit date.
                  • Oil prices slipped on growth worries, despite signs that OPEC supply cuts are curtailing US inventories.
                  Charts of the Day


                  Technician’s Corner
                  • USDJPY recovered from opening lows of 105.65, managing to rally to 105.95 after Wall Street turned higher. Treasury yields remain lower however, acting to limit the pairings upside potential. Bigger picture, the risk-sensitive USD-JPY may still have room to run lower, as flare ups in the U.S./China trade war are likely to continue. There is little sign of progress, or even talks under way, as additional tariffs on Chinese goods are set to kick in on Sunday. Monday’s 33-month low of 104.45 is the next downside target.
                  • USOIL rallied to $56.70 from $56.35 following the EIA inventory data which showed a 10.0 mln bbl fall in crude stocks. The street had been expecting a 2.0 mln bbl decrease, though the API reported an 11.1 mln bbl draw after the close on Tuesday. Meanwhile, gasoline supplies, seen down 0.5 mln bbls actually fell 2.1 bbls, while distillate stocks were down 2.1 mln bbls, versus expectations for a 1.5 mln bbl fall.
                  Main Macro Events Today
                  • Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 12:00) – The German HICP inflation has jumped to 1.3% y/y for August after it was revised down to 1.1% y/y in July.
                  • US Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) – The preliminary Q2 GDP growth is expected to trim to 1.9% from 2.1%, with a $6 bln hike in consumption that accompanies a $2 bln boost for nonresidential investment. A downward revision is expected of -$5 bln for inventories, -$4 bln for exports, -$3 bln for imports, -$8 bln revision for public construction, -$2 bln residential investment, and -$1 bln for equipment spending.
                  • Tokyo CPI and Production Data (JPY, GMT 23:30) – The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected to have slip at 0.7% y/y core in August, and at 0.8% y/y ex Fresh Food. Industrial Production should post a 0.3% grow m/m in July, compared to -3.3% in June.
                  Support and Resistance levels



                  Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                  Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                  Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                  Andria Pichidi
                  Market Analyst
                  HotForex

                  Disclaimer:
                  This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                  Comment


                  • Date : 30th August 2019.

                    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th August 2019.




                    FX News Today

                    * News that the Bank of Japan cut purchases in its regular operations added to pressure on JGBs, but bond markets in general were pressured as risk appetite returned.

                    * Hopes of US-Sino trade talks continued to underpin risk appetite. Wall Street closed higher yesterday, while optimism continued to underpin markets across Asia, which are set to end a difficult month on a high note.

                    * President Trump said some trade discussion were taking place with more talks scheduled and China’s commerce ministry signalled it won’t retaliate on new US tariffs for now, adding that a further escalation is not helpful and that it was more important to discuss a cancellation of tariff increases.

                    * ECB’s Knot meanwhile questioned the necessity for a restart of asset purchases late yesterday, which suggests the risk of disappointment for markets, who have been pricing in a very comprehensive easing package for the September meeting.

                    * The focus is now turning to important data releases over the weekend, including China’s official manufacturing survey.

                    * European stock futures are also moving higher, although US futures are struggling to hold earlier gains.

                    * The WTI future is trading at USD 56.51 per barrel.

                    * AUD and NZD both saw weaker building approvals data reported, AUD especially at 9.7% drop.

                    Charts of the Day



                    Technician’s Corner

                    * EURUSD traded to near one-month lows, bottoming at 1.1042, down from earlier session highs of 1.1092. The pair is now within striking distance of the 27-month low of 1.1027 seen on August 1. General Dollar strength has been a driver through the session, with the positive trade news supporting. In addition, the USD’s yield advantage over largely negative yielding EGBs should continue to weigh on EURUSD going forward. A break through the key 1.1000 psych level will shift overall market sentiment, though there has been some talk of barrier options at the level, which will initially at least, likely be defended.

                    Main Macro Events Today

                    * Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Euro Area flash CPI for August is expected to rise slightly, at 1.1% y/y from 1.0% y/y last month. Eurozone Unemployment rate is anticipated steady at 7.5%.

                    * Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada’s economy remained sluggish in Q1, with real GDP rising just 0.4% (q/q, saar) after a 0.3% gain in Q4 (revised from 0.4%). The Q1 growth rate was shy of expectations, but it was far from a shocking result as tepid activity was projected as the economy continued to recover from the oil price shock last year. Meanwhile the Q2 release is expected to be released higher at 0.7% q/q from 0.4% gain in Q1 , due to the strong showing from net exports.The monthly trade report revealed a 14.7% gain in export volumes (q/q, saar) following the 4.1% drop reported in the Q1 GDP report.

                    Support and Resistance levels



                    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                    Andria Pichidi
                    Market Analyst
                    HotForex

                    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                    Comment


                    • Date : 2nd September 2019.

                      MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd September 2019.


                      The Economic calendar is packed with the usual start-of-the-month releases on trade, manufacturing, and Jobs. Other than the RBA and BoC meetings next week and the trade war development, Brexit drama will remain the hot topic for markets as Parliament suspension generated a veritable political storm given the length and timing of it, as it is the longest in duration since 1945.

                      Monday – 02 September 2019
                      • Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Caixin manufacturing PMI acts as a leading indicator for the whole Chinese economy. The reading for August is expected to hold below the neutral zone, at 49.8 from 49.9 last month.
                      • Manufacturing PMI (GBP & EUR, GMT 08:30) – In August, the German and UK PMI are expected to remain unchanged in the negative region, 43.6 and 48.0 respectively.
                      Tuesday – 03 September 2019
                      • Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 01:30) –Australian July Retail Sales data are projected to rise by 0.3% m/m from 0.4% m/m in June.
                      • Interest Rate Decision and Statement (AUD, GMT 04:30) – In July, RBA Governor Lowe’s statement, while justifying the easing in policy, contained some cautiously upbeat observations, noting that “a lift in wages growth” is expected in the private sector, that inflation is anticipated to pick up (the central scenario being for underlying inflation to be around 2% in 2020 and a little higher after that), and that “tentative signs” of stabilization are being seen in Sydney and Melbourne housing markets. After implementing back-to-back rate cuts in June and July, RBA will be on hold for the foreseeable, albeit retaining a dovish policy stance.
                      • ECB’s Nominated President Lagarde speech (EUR, GMT 07:00)
                      • ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to rise to 51.4 in August from 51.2 in July, compared to a 14-year high of 61.4 in August of last year.
                      Wednesday – 04 September 2019
                      • Gross Domestic Product (AUD, GMT 01:30) – Australia’s economic growth is likely to remain soft in Q2 2019, with GDP rising by 0.5% q/q, including consumption growth of 0.4% up from 0.3% in the March quarter.
                      • Trade Balance (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada could ran to a C$0.3 bln trade deficit in July, from the C$0.1 bln trade surplus in June which contrasted with projections for a return to a mild shortfall.
                      • Interest Rate Decision and Statement (CAD, GMT 14:00) – Last time, BoC reaffirmed its commitment to steady policy, as an economy returning to potential growth contrasts with an outlook “clouded by persistent trade tensions.”. The expectations remain for no change of the policy outlook from the BoC through year-end, with the next move expected to be a modest rate hike in late 2020.
                      Thursday – 05 September 2019
                      • ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:15) – Employment change is seen falling short from July’s outcome (156K) to 140k in the number of employed people in August.
                      • Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The US Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 54.1 in August from 53.7 in July and a 19-month low of 56.1 in March, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September. A stabilization in sentiment is seen through the first half of 2019 after a winter drop, and we’ve see a renewed down-tilt into Q3, though most sentiment measures remain in expansion territory, and the early-August sentiment measures were firm.
                      Friday – 06 September 2019
                      • UK court hearing on forcing no-deal Brexit
                      • NFP and Labour Market Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 155k August nonfarm payroll rise has been estimated, following a 164k increase in July. The unemployment rate should tick down to 3.6% after an uptick to 3.7% in June that was sustained in July, and hours-worked are estimated to rise 0.3%. Average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% m/m.
                      • Employment Change (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Employment change is seen spiking to 12.5k in the number of employed people in August, compared to the decline 24.2.2k in July. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.7%.
                      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                      Andria Pichidi
                      Market Analyst
                      HotForex

                      Disclaimer:
                      This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                      Comment


                      • Date : 3rd Sepember 2019.

                        MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd Sepember 2019.




                        FX News Today
                        • Asian stocks traded mixed in a thin trade.
                        • The RBA left the cash rate at a record low 1.00%, as anticipated, though the statement pointed to tentative signs of improvement in the Australian economy’s fortunes, which helped spark about a 30 pip rebound in the Aussie.
                        • A Bloomberg reporter highlighted the difficulties in arranging the talks that are supposed to restart this week after the US rejected Beijing’s request to delay the start of tariffs that came into effect over the weekend.
                        • Against that background stock markets struggling to make headway JPN225 still managed gains of 0.1% respectively, but the Hang Seng declined -0.24%.
                        • US futures are equally heading south with the USA100 leading the way.
                        • Argentina imposed capital controls at the start of the month.
                        • Brexit: The anti-no-deal opposition are preparing a vote today to take control of the parliamentary timetable, which would pave the way for them to stage a vote the following day, Wednesday, on proposed legislation that would stop a no-deal Brexit. Prime Minister Johnson has made it clear that he will call a general election if such legislation were passed, which, according to reports, would be staged on October 14.
                        • In Europe, BTPs continue to outperform as political jitters abate with Salvini sidelined for now.
                        • GER30 futures recovered earlier losses and are posting slight gains, while the UK100 is outperforming, underpinned by a weaker Pound.
                        • The WTI future is trading at USD 54.85 per barrel.
                        Charts of the Day


                        Technician’s Corner
                        • JPY: The Yen printed respective 29-month and 10-year lows versus the Euro and Australian Dollar at the open of trading in Asia-Pacific session, then rebounding some before settling. USDJPY is near net unchanged of the day at 106.15 after carving out a two-session low at the open in Asia, at 105.93.
                        • GBP: Sterling racked up losses of nearly 1% against the Dollar, Euro and Yen, as of levels prevailing at the London fixing. Cable broke the 3-week low and the round 1.2000 area and posted a 1.1992 low, for the first time since January 2017, which, aside from a broadly firmer Dollar, has been a consequence of Pound underperformance.
                        • EUR: EURUSD concurrently ebbed to a new 28-month low at 1.0930 in what is now the pair’s seventh consecutive day of printing lower lows. The pairing is down by 1.3% from week-ago levels.
                        • CAD: The USD also managed to touch a two-and-a-half month peak against the Canadian Dollar in a move exaggerated in magnitude by the unusual thinness of the USDCAD market. The pair’s high was printed at 1.3361 yesterday after buy-stop orders were tripped during the London morning session. The pairing subsequently ebbed back to around 1.3330.
                        Main Macro Events Today
                        • ECB’s Nominated President Lagarde speech (EUR, GMT 07:00)
                        • ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to rise to 51.4 in August from 51.2 in July, compared to a 14-year high of 61.4 in August of last year.
                        Support and Resistance levels



                        Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                        Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                        Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. .

                        Andria Pichidi
                        Market Analyst
                        HotForex

                        Disclaimer:
                        This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                        Comment



                        • Date : 4th Sepember 2019.

                          MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th Sepember 2019.




                          FX News Today
                          • Stock markets pared losses after stronger than expected Services and Composite PMIs out of China.
                          • This helped to counterbalance a disappointing US manufacturing PMI yesterday which had signalled contraction and rekindled concerns about the fallout from ongoing geopolitical trade tensions.
                          • US August ISM manufacturing PMI dropped 2.1 points to 49.1 from 51.2 July.
                          • US construction spending edged-up 0.1% in July after falling 0.7% in June.
                          • US Markit manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.3 in August from 50.4 in July.
                          • Brexit: PM Johnson pushes for new elections after MPs voted against “no-deal”.
                          • GBP moved to session highs of 1.2104 as the UK government lost its majority, with a Conservative member defecting to the Liberal Democrats.
                          • China softened its tone on protesters yesterday and CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are posting gains of 0.2% and 0.3% respectively.
                          • US futures are moving higher, as are GER30 and UK100 futures, with investors scaling back “no-deal” Brexit odds.
                          • The WTI future is trading at USD 54.20 per barrel.
                          Charts of the Day


                          Technician’s Corner
                          A risk-back-on sentiment has weighed on the Yen and underpinned the Australian Dollar.
                          • JPY: The USDJPY spiked above 106.10 area after the strong Chinese PMIs, rebounding from 105.73 low yesterday following the sub-50 manufacturing ISM. Last Wednesday’s 105.65 low is the next support level.
                          • AUD: AUDJPY cross consequently heading into the London interbank open with gains of over 0.5%.The AUDUSD rallied to a nine-day peak at 0.6783. The Aussie, being a liquid currency proxy on China, attracted demand following above-forecast Caixin China services and composite PMI survey readings, which was just the tonic in nervous markets, providing an offset to the yesterday’s worrisome reading in US ISM and PMI data.
                          • GBP: The Pound rotated nearly 1.5% higher against the Dollar in recouping to levels above 1.2100. The UK currency yesterday hit a low of 1.1958, which aside from the post-Brexit referendum flash-crash lows of 2016 (which were likely a product of technical issues), is the lowest level since 1984.
                          Main Macro Events Today
                          • ECB’s Nominated Lagarde attends a hearing at the European Parliament and will thus get her first chance to outline her priorities for the ECB.
                          • Trade Balance (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada could run to a C$0.3 bln trade deficit in July, from the C$0.1 bln trade surplus in June which contrasted with projections for a return to a mild shortfall.
                          • Interest Rate Decision and Statement (CAD, GMT 14:00) – Last time, BoC reaffirmed its commitment to steady policy, as an economy returning to potential growth contrasts with an outlook “clouded by persistent trade tensions.”. The expectations remain for no change of the policy outlook from the BoC through year-end, with the next move expected to be a modest rate hike in late 2020.
                          Support and Resistance levels



                          Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                          Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                          Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                          Andria Pichidi
                          Market Analyst
                          HotForex

                          Disclaimer:
                          This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                          Comment



                          • Date : 11th Sepember 2019.

                            MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th Sepember 2019.



                            FX News Today
                            • Asian bond markets in general under pressure as local investors caught up with developments in the US yesterday.
                            • Excessive easing hopes continue to be scaled back ahead of the ECB meeting tomorrow and the Fed decision yesterday but with lingering hopes that governments will step up support for the global economy helping to underpin stock markets.
                            • President Trump has fired National Security Adviser John Bolton.
                            • The departure of Bolton has lifted hopes that the US will take a softer stance on China and North Korea and it also triggered a sell-off in oil amid hopes that tensions with Iran may ease.
                            • China will lift limits on foreign investment, which underpinned brokerages.
                            • News wires are citing a report from China’s South China Morning Post that China will buy more agricultural products from the US, to “sweeten” the trade deal. This should help add to optimism of more progress.
                            • The WTI futures has recovered some of yesterday’s losses and is trading at $57.86 per barrel, after falling to a low of 57.20 in the wake of the Bolton announcement.
                            Charts of the Day


                            Technician’s Corner
                            • Oil: WTI crude slid from $58.60 to $57.30 following news that NSA Bolton was fired by Trump. The ouster of the uber-hawk Bolton is equated by the oil market as an easing in potential conflict between the US and Iran. The WTI contract remains up over $1 from Monday’s low and the 200-day SMA.
                            • USDJPY printed near 6-week highs of 107.84, continuing to be supported by hopes for a solution to the US/China trade dispute. US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said recently there has been “lots of progress on talks” recently. In addition, a Reuters source report ahead of the US open indicated BoJ policymakers have discussed further easing measures, including cutting rates further into negative territory. This weighed on the Yen as well.
                            Main Macro Events Today
                            • Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Headline PPI is expected at a -0.1% dip for the PPI headline in August, with a 0.2% rise in the core index. As expected readings would result in a y/y gain of 1.7% for headline PPI that matches the July gain, and a 2.2% y/y rise for the core, versus 2.1% in July. The y/y headline readings is anticipated in a 1.3%-2.0% range over coming months, while core prices should be in a 1.9%-2.3% range.
                            • Crude Oil Inventories (GMT 14:30)
                            Support and Resistance levels



                            Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                            Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                            Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                            Andria Pichidi
                            Market Analyst
                            HotForex

                            Disclaimer:
                            This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                            Comment



                            • Date : 12th Sepember 2019.

                              MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th Sepember 2019.



                              FX News Today
                              • Treasury yields declined overnight, as sentiment improved and central bank decisions come into view.
                              • Stock markets remained supported during the Asian session as trade jitters continue to ease.
                              • Bolton’s departure in the US has triggered renewed hopes of a softer stance in the Trump camp and goodwill gestures from both China and the US have rekindled hopes that tensions can be resolved through talks after all.
                              • President Trump said he will delay the next US tariff increase on China by about two weeks, after China yesterday published an exemption list of its own tariffs on US imports.
                              • The final reading of German August HICP inflation brought no surprise, with HCIP confirmed at just 1.0% y/y, far below the ECB’s reference rate of 2.0%.
                              • US and European futures are moving higher.
                              • The WTI future is trading at USD 56.27 per barrel.
                              • The focus meanwhile is turning to today’s ECB meeting, which is widely expected to bring a cut to the deposit rate, but could disappoint on the QE front and coming ahead of the Fed decision next week, many will see it as a bellwether for easing intentions at global central banks.
                              Charts of the Day


                              Technician’s Corner
                              • The Dollar saw a 6-week high against the Yen, as goodwill gestures from both the US and China on the tariff front lifted risk appetite. The Yen continued to see its safe-haven premium deflate. USDJPY is trading over 108, in what is now a fourth consecutive day of ascent, which is in turn amid a third consecutive week of gains. AUDJPY and GBPJPY also continued to rise amid general strength in export-driven currencies amid the buoyant mood on the trade front.
                              Main Macro Events Today
                              • Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference (EUR, GMT 11:45 & 12:30) – The ECB is expected to cut deposit rate by 10 bp to -0.50%, with new tiered system to limit the impact. Most analysts are expecting a 10 bp cut in the deposit rate, which would leave it at -0.50%. The repo rate, currently at 0.00%, is likely to be kept on hold for now. The ECB is anticipated to re-open QE. There even is a risk that the restart of QE will be put on hold for now. With Lagarde taking over from Draghi in November, the pressure on governments to open their purse strings and complement an expansionary monetary policy with fiscal measures will likely increase.
                              • Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – The headline August CPI is estimated flat with a 0.2% core price increase, following July readings of 0.3% for both. As-expected gains would result in a headline y/y increase of 1.7%, down from 1.8% in July, while core prices should rise 2.3% y/y, up from a 2.2% pace in July. Overall, the inflation outlook remains benign, though we do expect an up-tilt in y/y gains into Q1 of 2020 due to harder comparisons.
                              Support and Resistance levels



                              Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                              Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                              Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                              Andria Pichidi
                              Market Analyst
                              HotForex

                              Disclaimer:
                              This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                              Comment


                              • Date : 16th September 2019.

                                MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th September 2019.




                                Welcome to our weekly agenda, our briefing of all the key financial events globally. The week ahead is expected to be a massive one, as four of the major Central banks will announce their rate decision, i.e. Fed, BoJ, SNB and BoE. There is a lot of interest in seeing whether BoJ will follow the Fed’s steps next week in cutting rates.
                                Monday – 16 September 2019
                                • Industrial Production and Retail Sales (CNY, GMT 02:00) – The Chinese Industrial Production growth is expected to have risen, at 5.2% y/y in August from 4.8% y/y last month. A slightly positive reading is also expected in the Retail Sales figure at 7.9% from 7.6%.
                                Tuesday – 17 September 2019
                                • Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The RBA minutes, similar to the ECB Reports, provide a detailed assessment of the bank’s most recent policy-setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the rate decision. They are usually a cause for FX turbulence.
                                • ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for September is projected at -38.0, from the lowest level since 2011 at -44.1 seen last month, as the current conditions indicator for Germany turned negative. The ZEW is a pretty clear indication that investors are gearing up for a much higher risk of a global recession, which ties in with developments in global bond yields and the marked flattening of curves.
                                Wednesday – 18 September 2019
                                • Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The UK CPI inflation is anticipated to be more underwhelming than the July data, at 1.9% y/y from 2.1% y/y, with a monthly rise up to 0.5% m/m.
                                • Consumer Price Index and Core (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The final reading of inflation is expected to have held steady at 1.0% y/y and core at 0.9% y/y, with an increase in the monthly number at 0.2%m/m from -0.5%m/m. Lower energy price inflation keep a lid on the overall number meanwhile as CPI excluding energy moved up to 1.2% from 1.1% y/y last month.
                                • Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The August CPI is expected to continue adding to the backing for steady BoC policy this year, even as the Fed and ECB add stimulus. CPI has been forecasted to grow to a 1.7% y/y pace in August, below the 2.0% last month.
                                • Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference (USD, GMT 18:00-18:30) – The August’s jobs data did little to alter the market’s expectations for a 25bp rate cut at the September 17-18 FOMC meeting. Based on Powell’s latest comments, the Fed is very committed to a symmetric 2% inflation goal, hence given low inflation, interest rates will remain low. That leaves very little room to cut rates further. The Fed is not forecasting or expecting a US recession, nor a global downturn, said Powell. The fact that the chair doesn’t seem too concerned about a recession in the States, or the world, suggests the FOMC is not going to be aggressive easing policy.
                                Thursday – 19 September 2019
                                • Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement (JPY, GMT 02:00) – The BoJ kept its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and its pledge to guide 10-year JGB yields around 0% while maintaining its asset buying program. The central bank is expected to signal once again its commitment to keep interest rates at current levels “for an extended period of time, at least through around spring 2020”. The BoJ pledged to keep an eye on the output gap, but for now at least it seems the bank is seeing the risks as coming mainly from the outside.
                                • Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement (CHF, GMT 07:30) – The SNB kept policy on hold at the June council meeting. The Libor target was replaced with a key policy rate, but the central bank was adamant that the degree of monetary accommodation remains unchanged. After the ECB cut rates, while the Fed is now widely expected to ease rates, the SNB has little room to manoeuvre, especially against the backdrop of ongoing Brexit uncertainty and geopolitical trade risks. The SNB’s central message remains that the situation remains fragile and the currency “highly valued”.
                                • Interest Rate Decision, MPC Voting (GBP, GMT 11:00) – Shadowed by the ongoing political developments in Brexit, the BoE is not expected to proceed with any interest rate actions.
                                Friday – 20 September 2019
                                • Retail Sales ex Autos (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Retail sales and Core for August are seen steady, while the headline is anticipated to drop to 2.9% y/y from 3.3% and core to 2.5% from 2.9%.
                                Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                                Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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                                Andria Pichidi
                                Market Analyst
                                HotForex

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