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  • #46
    Date : 7th August 2017.

    THE ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD.




    Main Macro Events This Week

    The July U.S. employment report provided some solace for the Fed on the growth front, but no major smoking gun on inflation. Headline payrolls growth came in a hair above expectations, with small net tweaks on back revisions. Hours worked were steady but were up from May, though average hourly earnings came in a little hot. The jobless rate ticked down once again and gave the Fed some more surety in nominal terms that it is getting closer to full employment even as the participation rate ticked up.

    United States: Consumer credit is forecast to increase $17.0 bln in June (Monday) amid upside risk. NFIB small business optimism and JOLTS job openings (Tuesday) will be mulled. MBA mortgage market data is due (Wednesday), along with Q2 productivity (preliminary) seen rising 0.5% right in line with unit labor costs and wholesale trade seen rising 0.5% alongside a 0.6% gain in inventories. Initial jobless claims are forecast to dip 2k to 238k (Thursday) for the week ended August 5, while July PPI may rise 0.1% or 0.2% ex-food and energy. The Treasury budget gap is set to narrow to -$65.0 bln in July from -$90.2 bln, which was a big blowout in June. The week will round out with the July CPI event, seen rising 0.2% headline and 0.1% core for a tame 1.7% y/y core reading.

    Fedspeak returns with a flurry of activity this week starting (Monday) with Bullard and dissenter Kashkari. Dudley will open and take part in a panel discussion on New York economic trends (Thursday). Kaplan will take part in a Q&A session (Friday) and Kashkari will be back to do the same at a community bankers conference.

    The earnings season is dying down, though there are still several heavy-weights ahead. Generally solid reports have helped the Dow climb over the 22,000 level, and to eight straight record closes.

    Canada: The holiday truncated week is heavy on housing data. July housing starts (Tuesday) are expected to fall to 200.0k from the 213.2k annual pace in June. A 5.0% m/m drop in the value of building permits during June (Wednesday) is seen following the 8.9% gain in May. The new house price index (Thursday) is projected to rise 0.4% m/m in June after the 0.7% bounce in May. There is nothing scheduled from the Bank of Canada this week. Our projection remains for a follow-up 25 basis point rate hike in October, taking rates to 1.00% from the current 0.75% setting.

    Europe: The ECB is effectively on holiday and data releases this week will be mostly backward looking, so it should be a relatively quiet week for markets. Draghi has remained very cagey even about the timing of the next QE announcement and this week’s data releases are unlikely to change the outlook and there are no key speeches on the immediate agenda.

    German June industrial production (Monday) is expected rising 0.8% m/m (median 0.4%), after the strong orders number and the very strong Ifo reading. We are looking for a pretty stable June trade surplus (Tuesday) of EUR 20.0bln leaving Q2 GDP on course to remain steady around 0.6% q/q. Industrial production data also comes from France (Thursday) and Italy (Wednesday), although unlike Germany both countries have already released preliminary Q2 GDP numbers, so unless there are major surprises it shouldn’t impact the overall picture. Final July HICP rates from Germany, France, Spain and Italy (all Friday) are expected to confirm preliminary data, which should leave national HICP rates ranging from 1.7% y/y in Spain, over 1.5% in Germany to just 0.8% y/y in France and the final Eurozone rate (due the following week) at 1.3% y/y.

    UK: Sterling posted losses against all three of the G3 currencies last week for the first time since the first week of June. The culprit was the BoE stance at its August 2-3 policy meeting, with dissenters on the Monetary Policy Committee in favor of hiking falling to two from three at the prior meeting in June, and with the central bank downwardly nudging both growth and inflation forecasts. The economic calendar this week brings the BRC retail sales report for July (Monday), where we expect the headline same store comparison rising by 0.6% y/y, after a 1.2% gain in June. Warm weather has been underpinning sales, along with strong employment levels, though the squeeze on real wages remains a concern for the retail sector in the months ahead. Production data for June are also up (Thursday), where we forecast a 0.1% m/m contraction but 0.1% y/y expansion. June trade data are also due on Thursday.

    China: The calendar picks up on Tuesday with the July trade report, where the surplus is expected to $48.0 bln from $42.8 bln. July price indicators (Wednesday) are seen accelerating slightly. CPI is seen picking up to a 1.6% y/y clip from 1.5%, while PPI is forecast rising to 5.6% y/y from 5.5%, respectively. July loan growth and new yuan loans (Thursday) should show the latter at CNY 1,000.0 bln from 1,540.0 bln previously.

    Japan: The June current account surplus (Tuesday) is expected to shrink to JPY 800.0 bln from 1,653.9 bln previously. July bank loan figures are also due Tuesday. June machine orders (Thursday) are seen bouncing 4.0% from the 3.6% decline in May. July PPI (Thursday) is forecast to climb to a 2.5% y/y pace from 2.1%, while the June tertiary index (Thursday) is penciled in edging up 0.2% after the prior 0.1% decline.

    Australia: The data docket is thin this week. The only main reports are ANZ job adds (Monday) and housing finance (Wednesday), expected to expand 0.5% m/m in June from May’s 1.0% gain. The RBA are due before parliament on Friday following last weeks downgrade to growth and inflation targets and the comments on the firm AUD are expected to be reiterated.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Stuart Cowell
    Senior Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

    Comment


    • #47
      Date : 8th August 2017.

      MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th August 2017.




      FX News Today

      European Outlook: Asian equity markets pared some of their recent gains after Chinese export and import data fell short of expectations, and investors ponder the global growth and central bank outlook while taking profits. Mixed earnings reports meanwhile weighed on the TSE and a stronger Yen is adding to pressure. Oil prices are holding above USD 49 per barrel but seem to be trending lower again after briefly rising above USD 50 per barrel at the start of the month. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also heading south, pointing to a correction in the FTSE 100, which outperformed yesterday, as the DAX underperformed and closed in the red, while other European markets nudged higher. Eurozone spreads also narrowed. Released overnight, U.K. BRC retail sales rose 0.9% y/y on a same store basis, down from 1.2% y/y in May, while Swiss sa unemployment remained steady at 3.2%.

      German exports slump in June, but trade surplus improves. In line with the Chinese trade report, German export and import growth disappointed, with exports falling -2.8% m/m and imports -4.5% m/m. The sa trade surplus though improved to EUR 21.2 bln from EUR 20.3 bln, leaving the total for the second quarter at EUR 61.3 bln, up from EUR 59.9 bln in the second quarter of the year. Like yesterday’s production numbers then the data point to a robust Q2 GDP growth rate, with net exports underpinning the German recovery, which orders suggest remains on track in the third quarter, even if automaker’s woes and the strong EUR are seeing investors turning cautious on German stocks.

      Fedspeak: Yesterday there was a relatively dovish view from the nonvoting president, Fed’s Bullard, who continues to twist between a hawkish and dovish outlook, largely on the winds of inflation. Fed’s Bullard believes current rates are about appropriate for the near term. But, he’s a bit worried about the still low inflation rate, as recent data have “surprised to the downside and call into question the idea that U.S. inflation is reliably returning toward target.”. Of importance, though is his disagreement with the Phillips Curve orthodoxy that suggests low unemployment contributes to higher inflation, saying there is little relationship. He expects the economy to grow at about a 2% rate, but noted the pick-up in global growth. Those factors, including improved European activity and the potential for a more hawkish ECB, have weighed on the dollar. He supports getting going on QT, meanwhile he concurs with the general FOMC sentiment that the balance sheet unwind will be very slow and there shouldn’t be any big market impact. Fed’s Kashkari gave a speech as well yesterday in South Dakota, where he said he hasn’t seen wages growing very quickly in a Q&A session. The economy is doing pretty well, he added while noting the largest U.S. banks are still too-big-to-fail.

      U.S. reported: consumer credit at $12.4 bln in June following the $18.3 bln May increase (revised from $28.4 bln). Non-revolving credit increased $8.3 bln, continuing to lead the strength in consumer borrowing, after the $11.4 bln jump in May (revised from $11.0 bln). Revolving credit was up $4.1 bln versus the prior $6.9 bln gain (revised from $7.4 bln). Credit slowed a bit in Q2, rising $42.9 bln (4.5%), after the $447.1 bln (5.0%) Q1 increase.

      Main Macro Events Today

      U.S. JOLTS & NFIB – JOLTS and the NFIB small business optimism survey today, will be mulled. The JOLTS expected to stay nearly unchanged with just a small drop to 5.660 M from 5.666M in May. The NFIB Business Optimism Index expected to be unchanged as well at 103.6.

      CAD Housing starts – July housing starts are expected to fall to 200.0k from the 213.2k annual pace in June.

      RBA Assistant Gov. Kent – RBA Assistant Governor Kent is due to speak today at the Bloomberg Address in Sydney.

      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

      Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

      Click HERE to READ more Market news.


      Andria Pichidi
      Market Analyst
      HotForex


      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

      Comment


      • #48
        Date : 9th August 2017.

        MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th August 2017.




        FX News Today

        European Outlook: European bond markets, which were pretty static during the AM session have livened up a bit in the afternoon and Bund yields recovered losses and moved higher, with futures heading south in tandem with EURUSD. The 10-year yield is up 1.8 bp on the day at 14.57 GMT reached an intraday high of 1.73% after the EUR retreated and fell back below EUR 1.18 against the dollar. Low volumes over the summer also means the ECB is curbing its QE purchases in order to limit market distortions, but quiet trading conditions can also distort moves. German export and import growth disappointed. Like yesterday’s production numbers then the data point to a robust Q2 GDP growth rate, with net exports underpinning the German recovery, which orders suggest remains on track in the third quarter, even if automaker’s woes and the strong EUR are seeing investors turning cautious on German stocks.U.K. retail sales were strong in July, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC).The BRC expressed some caution, noting a “shrinking pool of discretionary consumer spending power,” highlighting the negative real income trend, which was mentioned as a concern in the BoE’s guidance last week. Elsewhere Swiss unemployment held steady at a seasonally adjusted 3.2% as expected.

        FX Update: A risk-off sentiment supported the yen and Swiss franc as safe haven currencies and assets came into demand amid an escalation in threatening rhetoric between North Korea and the U.S, with Trump promising Pyongyang “fire and fury.” North Korea’s development of nuclear warhead carrying ICBM capability is the issue, and the flare up in tensions rattled stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region. USDJPY dove to a seven-week low at 109.74, and EURJPY and other yen crosses also declined sharply The biggest mover among the main currencies was AUDJPY, which dove over 0.7%, with the relatively high beta Aussie buck underperforming amid the risk-off sentiment. Market participants will be monitoring the geopolitical situation closely in the days ahead. Normally tensions stemming from North Korea’s antics tend to simmer down quickly, though the stakes seem to have increased as the rouge nation draws near to developing a credible nuclear weapon threat. Elsewhere in the currency market, EURCHF backtracked by over 0.5%, unwinding some of its recent gains and revealing that the franc still has vestiges of a safe haven currency. EURUSD logged a 12-day low at 1.1725, extending the correction that’s been in play since last week’s solid U.S. jobs report, which has fuelled market expectations for the Fed to conduct a quantitative tightening as soon as next month.

        U.S. reports: revealed U.S. JOLTS surged 461k to 6,163k in June, a record high level, after falling 265k in May to 5,702k. The rate climbed to 4.0% from 3.8%. Hirings dropped 103k to 5,356k after rebounding 416k previously, with the rate holding steady at 3.7%. Quitters, a favorite stat of Fed chair Yellen, slid 72k in June following May’s 162k increase. The quit rate dipped to 2.1% from 2.2%. The strength in the headline job openings component is good news, and is consistent with much of the other labor market data. And though the slip in the quit number is a little disappointing, it’s been on a choppy course most of the year. U.S. NFIB small business optimism index rose 1.5 points to 105.2 in July, rebounding from June’s 0.9 point drop to 103.6. This was the highest reading since hitting 105.3 in February. Gains were broad-based with 9 of the 13 indicators improving, 3 declined and 1 was unchanged. The data are a little better than expected, as has been the case for several other July sentiment reading.

        Main Macro Events Today

        CAD Housing starts – July housing starts are expected to fall to 200.0k unit rate in July from the 212.7k pace in June. The roust 252k pace in March was the best reading since the 2008-09 recession, and the strongest since the 288.6k rate in September of 2007. Building permit values are also due today, with a 5.0% decline projected for June.

        US Productivity – The preliminary report on Q2 productivity will be out and should post a 0.7% headline, above the flat pace in Q1 but below the 1.8% headline of 16Q4. Unit labor costs are expected to be up 1.2% from 2.2% in Q1 and -4.6% in Q4.

        RBNZ – The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s is going to meet today, to announce their decision on interest rates, publish Monetary Policy Statement and to comment on the current economic situation. No change to the current 1.75% rate setting, expected through year-end. Governor Wheeler holds his usual press conference after the announcement.

        Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

        Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

        Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

        Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

        Click HERE to READ more Market news.


        Andria Pichidi
        Market Analyst
        HotForex


        Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

        Comment


        • #49
          Date : 10th August 2017.

          MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th August 2017.




          FX News Today

          European Outlook: Risk aversion amid tensions between the U.S. and China continued to hang over markets during the Asian session. Still, losses in Japan and Australia were relatively modest, while Hong Kong stocks underperformed and are heading for the biggest lost since last year amid concerns about the tensions between the U.S, and North Korea. U.K. stock futures are actually slightly higher, while U.S. futures remain in the red. Investors remain nervous but Bund futures started to move down from highs during the PM session yesterday and yields are likely to have bottomed for now. Eurozone markets underperformed and spreads widened, which highlights that peripheral yields remain vulnerable to bouts of risk aversion. Overnight, RNBZ left the official cash rate unchanged, while announced that inflation remains subdued. Today’s calendar has production and trade data from the U.K. as well as production data from France and trade data from Italy. Released overnight, the U.K. RICS house price balance fell back to 1% from 7%, further adding to signs that the housing market is slowing down.

          U.S. reports: revealed a solid round of June wholesale trade figures after big upward May revisions that lifted prospects for GDP, alongside a slightly stronger than expected 0.9% Q2 productivity rise after revisions that paralleled the annual revisions in the GDP and income reports. Now it is expected a Q2 GDP growth trimming to 2.4% from 2.6%, with a $7 bln boost in wholesale inventories but downward revisions of $3 bln for factory inventories and $9 bln for construction. The Q3 GDP growth still expected at 3.3%, with a $26 bln inventory addition. Yet, even with today’s firm inventory gains, inventories have yet to recover from the big 2015-2016 petro-hit, and wholesale petroleum inventories fell by a hefty 5.2% in June despite a 1.9% sales rise.

          Fedspeak: Fed’s Bullard said there’s risk the FOMC could be too aggressive on rates, in comments on Bloomberg radio yesterday. The Fed doesn’t need to be preemptive on rates due to weak inflation trends. Rates can be left on hold for now as data are evaluated. The drop-in inflation has surprised policymakers. The G-7 is in a low growth, low inflation regime. And he’s not too optimistic that price pressure will pick up this year. These aren’t surprising comments from Bullard, who has turned more circumspect on rate hikes, still looks for QT to begin this year, but with a slow, incremental start. Chicago Fed dove Evans on the other hand, sees balance sheet reduction in September as quite a reasonable juncture to start, while a December rate hike is possible, though dependent on inflation. He argues that the Fed “should be very careful” in assessing future hikes, since he wants more evidence that inflation is heading to 2% sooner than later. Evans sees current policy as accommodative, while the economy is doing well and likely to average 2.25-2.50% growth the next few years, which is how long it will take to unwind the balance sheet. He believes there’s reasonable chance inflation could reach 2% in the next few years and he doesn’t see major risks of financial instability, at least certainly not due to Fed policy.

          Main Macro Events Today

          UK Production – Production data for June are up today, where expected at a 0.1% m/m contraction but 0.1% y/y expansion.

          U.S. PPI – July PPI is out today and should post a 0.1% headline with the core up 0.2% for the month. This follows June data which had both the headline and core up 0.1% on the month. After a series of declines through the spring, oil prices climbed in July which could help to lift the headline.

          U.S. Initial Jobless Claims – Initial claims data for the week of August 5 should tick down to 239k (median 240k) from 240k last week and 245k in the week before that. Initial claims look poised to settle at a 242k average in July that about matches the 243k average from June.

          RBA Gov. Lowe – Governor Wheeler holds today his usual press conference after the announcement of inflation rates last night.

          Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

          Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

          Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

          Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

          Click HERE to READ more Market news.


          Andria Pichidi
          Market Analyst
          HotForex


          Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

          Comment


          • #50
            Date : 11th August 2017.

            MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th August 2017.




            FX News Today

            European Outlook: Markets remain firmly in the grip of risk aversion as as the rhetoric between the U.S. and North Korea intensifies. The flight to safety has the stock market rout continuing in Asia (Japan was closed for a holiday) and European and Asian stock futures are also heading south as financial and energy producers in particular come under pressure. Eurozone peripheral bond markets are also feeling the heat and the Italian 10-year yield climbed back above the 2% mark yesterday as investors seek safety in Bund and Gilts. So far peripheral yields still remain relatively low but in this climate Draghi will be very careful not to rock the boat any further with tapering talk. The data calendar focuses on final July CPI readings from US and Fedspeak for today.

            Germany: German production data this week was disappointing and the trade data showed a marked contraction in exports over the month, which together with the mixed German PMI readings has sparked concerns over the health of the German economy. Yet, not all is what it seems at first glance and as Germany is heading for the general election in September, the economic outlook remains very strong. The Jul HICP inflation released in the morning, was confirmed at 1.5% y/y, unchanged from the preliminary number and from June. The national CPI rate meanwhile was confirmed at 1.7% y/y, up from 1.6% y/y in the previous month. Overall the German HICP rate remains above the Eurozone average, as the labour market is looking increasingly tight and the number of vacancies rose to post-unification highs. Still, even the German HICP rate is clearly below the ECB’s upper limit for price stability and the data won’t change the ECB’s cautious stance on tapering as it prepares it heads for yet another QE program when the current schedule ends at the end of the year.

            U.S. reports: revealed a soft round of PPI and initial claims figures, hence offsetting yesterday’s firm figures for wholesale trade and productivity. August nonfarm payroll estimate is at 190k, which is just above the 184k average thus far in 2017, and it is still expected at 0.2% July headline gains for CPI and PCE chain prices. For PPI report, 0.1% July headline and core price declines reflected a surprising 0.2% service price drop, after firm gains over the past four months, alongside a slightly weaker than expected 0.1% goods price decline. For claims, a 4k rise to 244k in the first week of August reversed a 5k drop at the end of July, to leave claims entering August near recent monthly averages of 242k in July, 243k in June, 241k in May, and 243k in April.

            Fedspeak: Fed’s Dudley wrote yesterday in the text of his press briefing that sluggish productivity is damping wages, despite job gains. Though the post-crisis expansion is the third longest on record, it has been at a relatively weak pace, along with wages. He still expects inflation to rise to the 2% target over the medium term. There weren’t any policy insights, though he’s not dissented from the consensus over his tenure, and we don’t look for him to start now. Annual price measures could be depressed for a while, he said in comments to reporters. And he added that it will take some time for the inflation rate to get to the 2% target, but also said the sluggishness is due to a number of one-offs, which won’t fall out of the y/y calculations for several more months. It’s really important, he added, to distinguish what’s happening sequentially compared to a y/y basis. That sentiment suggests he’d likely want to hold off on further rate hikes for now. There’s little chance for any tightening next month, and the risk for December is slipping too, though balance sheet normalization is expected to be announced at the September 20, 21 FOMC.

            Main Macro Events Today

            US CPI- Production data for June are up today, where expected at a 0.1% m/m contraction but 0.1% y/y expansion.

            Fedspeak – Dallas Fed’s hawkish Kaplan will take part in a Q&A session from 9:40 ET and Kashkari will be back to do the same at a community bankers conference from 11:30 ET.

            China – July loan growth and new yuan loans are out today should show the latter at CNY 1,000.0 bln from 1,540.0 bln previously.

            Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

            Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

            Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

            Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

            Click HERE to READ more Market news.


            Andria Pichidi
            Market Analyst
            HotForex


            Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

            Comment


            • #51
              Date : 14th August 2017.

              MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th August 2017.




              FX News Today

              Geopolitical tensions reared up last week and eclipsed key fundamental data points. The escalating war of words between the U.S. and North Korea resulted in a textbook flight to safety into bonds, and also provided an excuse to take profits on equities, especially after the Dow posted nine straight record highs.

              United States: Data in recent weeks continued to reflect the surprising dichotomy of stronger economic growth and slower inflation. Those dynamics have frustrated FOMC officials who have become increasing eager to normalize policy. Retail sales for July (Tuesday) will highlight the calendar. Headline sales are projected rebounding 0.4% after dipping 0.2% in June and 0.1% in May, while the ex-auto component should rise 0.3% versus the prior declines of 0.2% and 0.3% in June and May, respectively. The Empire State (Tuesday) and Philly Fed (Thursday) manufacturing indexes are due. The former is expected to rise 1.2 points to 11.0 in August, the latter is expected to slip 0.5 points to 19.0 in August. ( A third consecutive decline). July industrial production (Thursday) is forecast rising 0.4%, the same as in June, lifting capacity utilization to 76.8%. July housing starts (Wednesday) should rise to a 1.220 mln pace after the 8.3% June rise to 1.215 mln. The preliminary reading on August consumer confidence (Friday) should edge up to 93.5 from July’s 93.4. It’s held in the mid- to high 90s since the election. As for July trade prices (Tuesday), import prices should bounce 0.2% after June’s 0.2% decline, while export prices should climb 0.3% following the prior 0.2% drop. Other economic reports this week include The August NAHB homebuilder survey index (Tuesday) and July leading indicators (Thursday).

              The FOMC minutes (Wednesday) to the July 25, 26 policy meeting will be of interest, but anti-climactic, given the ongoing divergence in growth and inflation trends, and the upshot in geopolitical risks.

              Canada: CPI report is the focus this week as inflation remains a key variable for policymakers. We expect CPI (Friday) to be unchanged in July versus June’s 0.1% dip. Manufacturing shipment values (Thursday) are projected to fall 1.0% in June after the 1.1% gain in May. The hefty price driven 4.3% m/m plunge in June export values drives our manufacturing shipments projection. July existing home sales (Tuesday) and the July Teranet/National Bank HPI (Monday) are also due out.

              Europe: Geopolitical risks continue to hang over the markets and have shown that Eurozone peripherals remain vulnerable to bouts of risk aversion. The ECB is still on holiday, but recent events will do little to change Draghi’s reluctance to commit to the further QE schedule just yet. Data releases are unlikely to change the central bank outlook. They include the final reading of Eurozone July HICP inflation (Thursday) as well as the first reading for German Q2 GDP (Tuesday) and the second reading of Q2 GDP for the Eurozone (Wednesday), none of which are expected to bring major surprises.

              UK: The UK economy has been and is likely to continue to underperform the Eurozone and other peers. The latest Reuters poll found a strong consensus among 70 analysts for the BoE to leave monetary policy on hold until 2019. The calendar this week brings July inflation data (Tuesday), the labour market report covering June and July (Wednesday) and official retail sales numbers for July (Thursday).

              China’s docket today revealed July industrial output, which was seen at 7.7% y/y clip missed and came in at 6.4%. July retail sales also missed at 10.4% (10.9% expected) 11.0%, while July fixed investment ALSO missed (8.3%) forecast was 8.6% y/y. Poor set of data.

              Japan: Q2 GDP highlighted and was a big beat earlier expected growth to was 2.6% q/q pace from 1.0% previously, but came in at 4.0%. Revised June industrial production is due Tuesday, while the July trade surplus (Thursday) should narrow to JPY 300.0 bln from JPY 439.9 bln.

              Australia: The employment report (Thursday) is expected to reveal a 15.0k gain in July jobs after the 14.0k rise in June. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 5.6% in July. The wage price index (Wednesday) is anticipated to expand 0.5% in Q2 after the identical 0.5% increase in Q1. The Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes to the August meeting (Tuesday). Assistant Governor Kent speaks (Monday). Assistant Governor (Economic) Ellis delivers a speech Thursday.

              Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

              Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

              Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

              Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

              Click HERE to READ more Market news.


              Stuart Cowell
              SeniorMarket Analyst
              HotForex


              Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

              Comment


              • #52
                Date : 15th August 2017.

                MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th August 2017.




                FX News Today

                European Outlook: The stock market recovery continued in Asia overnight, with Japan outperforming after underperforming yesterday, while gains were more muted elsewhere. Still, U.K. and U.S. futures are also moving higher, indicating that abating fears over North Korea are keeping markets underpinned, while earnings optimism are helping financials, even as lower oil prices are hitting energy producers. Following the German GDP data (see below) the European session sees U.K. and Sweden release inflation numbers with the former seen nudging higher to 2.7% y/y (med same) from 2.6% y/y in June.

                German Q2 GDP: It rose 0.6% q/q a little under forecast and a tad below consensus, but with Q1 revised up to 0.7% q/q from 0.6%, which leaves a stronger overall trajectory. There is no full breakdown with the preliminary number, but the stats office reported that private as well as government consumption improved markedly and that machinery as well as construction investment also picked up. Net exports meanwhile made a negative contribution as imports rose stronger than exports. All in all pretty much in line with expectations and confirming the robust German recovery, which judging by confidence data and the strong orders inflow in Q2 continues in the third quarter. The ECB has acknowledged the improved growth environment, but remains focused on low inflation and moderate wage growth and the most recent rise in the EUR will only add to the arguments for a very cautious approach to QE tapering.

                FX Update: USDJPY extended its rebound for a third session, today making a one-week high at 110.45. EURJPY also rose, logging a one-week peak just above 130.0, and other yen crosses are up. The recovery in risk appetite, as cooler heads prevail in the North Korean situation, has remained the central theme behind broad yen weakening. USDJPY support is at 109.84-45, and resistance is at 110.80-82. EURUSD ebbed to a two-session low at 1.1786, as did Cable, at 1.2954, with the dollar now more than having recouped the losses seen on Friday following tepid CPI data. The dollar also gained ground versus the Canadian and Australian dollars, and most emerging market currencies.

                Fedspeak: Dudley said he backs another rate hike this year, assuming the economy evolves as expected, in an AP interview. And he added his outlook is little changed from the start of the year. It’s not unreasonable to expect action on the balance sheet next month. He still forecasts growth around 2%, which will tighten the job market. Inflation should move somewhat higher. He thinks asset prices are consistent with the economy’s performance. So far the Fed has been “very, very gentle” in removing accommodation. President Trump has respective the monetary policy process. And he said Gary Cohn would be a “reasonable candidate” for Fed chair.

                Main Macro Events Today

                UK CPI – Expectations are for a rise in UK CPI later today back to 2.7% from the surprised dip in July to 2.6%. The June 2.9% reading remains the current peak and fueled speculation of a UK rate hike which has now all but disappeared following the BOE’s suggestion of a lot more caution surrounding tightening following the inflation slip.

                US Retails Sales – Expectations are for a 0.4% retail sales bounce in July with a 0.3% rise for the ex-auto figure, following vehicle and price-led declines in May and June. We saw a modest 0.6% vehicle sales rise in July, construction jobs and hours worked rose by 6k and 0.1% respectively, chain store sales posted moderate gains, and gasoline prices stabilized after two months of declines. The various consumer confidence and producer sentiment indexes remained strong on the month, though with modest drop-backs for some measures, and we saw big stock price gains

                Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

                Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

                Click HERE to READ more Market news.


                Stuart Cowell
                Senior Market Analyst
                HotForex


                Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                Comment


                • #53
                  Date : 16th August 2017.

                  MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th August 2017.




                  FX News Today

                  European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, after an uninspiring session on Wall Street. The Nikkei is up 0.02%, the ASX gained 0.23% as oil prices moved slightly higher and the Hang Seng is up 0.72% in contrast to a -0.30% drop in the CSI. Earnings reports, geopolitics and currencies remain in focus. Ongoing Sterling weakness is propping up the FTSE 100, and U.S. stock futures are also up. EGB yields meanwhile are rising and Eurozone peripheral yields in particular were pushed up yesterday as Germany’s top court raised doubts over the ECB’s stimulus program. Finance Minister Schaeuble told Handelsblatt, that in his view the ECB’s QE program remains within its mandate, but the uncertainty ahead of the final court decision will hang over markets. Still, yields moved back down from highs during yesterday’s session and things should calm down further after the initial announcement.

                  FX Update: The dollar majors settled in narrow ranges. USDJPY lost upside steam as global stock market performance turned more mixed following a rebound phase. The pair settled in the mid 110.00s after a three-day rally capped out yesterday at 110.84, an eight-day peak. And right on the 20 day moving average. EURUSD planted itself around 1.17740 after logging a one-week low at 1.1687 yesterday, which was seen following robust retail sales and Empire State index reports out of the U.S. USD-CAD settled below the one-month peak of yesterday, at 1.2778, and Cable rooted itself in the mid 1.28s after logging a one-month low yesterday at 1.2846. A central focal point today will be the release of the FOMC minutes to the June policy meeting. (Details below)

                  Yesterday’s US Reports: Mostly beat estimates and lifted prospects for GDP in 2017, with solid July retail sales gains after big and broad-based upward revisions, and an August Empire State surge to a 3-year high of 25.2. The June business inventory figures tracked estimates, with a big 0.5% June rise that included a tiny retail inventory undershoot, and a firm round of July trade prices led by gains for food export and oil import prices, with a skewing of price strength toward exports. Q3 and Q4 GDP growth estimates remain around 3.3% and 2.6% respectively.

                  Fedspeak: Kaplan repeated that the balance sheet unwind should start very soon, but gave no firm date, in a podcast with The American Banker. We’re looking for the FOMC to announce QT at the September 20, 21 meeting. But he also indicated, as he did Friday, that it’s appropriate to be patient on the timing of the next rate hike. Kaplan is a voter, and typically hawkish, so adds some risk to the call for a December rate increase. He believes there is still some slack in the labour market, but the firming jobs market should eventually translate into higher prices.

                  Main Macro Events Today

                  FOMC Minutes – The Wall Street Journal wrote yesterday of 5 key elements: 1) Portfolio Pointers – any potential for more ‘definitive signal’ on balance sheet wind down in September sought. 2) Inflation Questions – potential for hot debate on cold inflation stats. 3) Another Rate Increase? – even some centrists have been disappointed by low inflation, could delay next hike. 4) Wither the Dollar? – weak dollar could inform debate on economy, inflation, exports, etc. 5) The Debt Limit, Again – just how much the Fed hits the ‘pause’ button or prepares to take emergency steps in the event of a shutdown could be revealed in the minutes.

                  Eurozone Q2 – Expectations are for a confirmation of the 0.6% (QoQ) and 2.1% (YoY) first reading.

                  Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                  Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                  Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

                  Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

                  Click HERE to READ more Market news.


                  Stuart Cowell
                  Senior Market Analyst
                  HotForex


                  Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    Date : 17th August 2017.

                    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th August 2017.




                    FX News Today

                    Trump: Disbanded both Councils in a Tweet: “Rather than putting pressure on the businesspeople of the Manufacturing Council & Strategy & Policy Forum, I am ending both. Thank you all!” Seeing the writing on the wall, the 45th president of the U.S. is apparently attempting to fire them all (8 have already quit) before they can resign. Meanwhile, VP Pence is reportedly ending his Latam trip “a bit early” and returning to the U.S. after his visit in Panama. Gold and the yen both caught a bid after the announcement. Gossip is now swirling around his top team including Gary Cohn his chief economic adviser and the Presidents rumored preferred candidate as the next chair of the FED. EURUSD 1.1780, JPY 109.70 and Cable 1.2905. Gold trades at $1287 and USOil at $46.80 (having hit our $47.00 target).

                    Australian Jobs: Employment grew 27.9k in July after a revised 20.0k gain in June (was +14.0k). The increase in July mildly overshot expectations, but the details were less encouraging. Notably, full time employment retreated 20.3k after a revised 69.3k gain (was +62.0k). Part time jobs drove total employment gains in July, rebounding 48.2k after a slightly revised 49.3k decline (was -48.0k). The unemployment rate slipped to 5.6% in July from a revised 5.7% in June (was 5.6%). Employment growth has picked-up momentum this year, but wage growth remains weak. The wage price index, released Wednesday, grew at a 1.9% y/y pace in Q2, matching the growth rate in Q3 and Q4 of 2016, and Q1 of this year. That is the slowest rate on record (going back to 1998.)

                    FOMC Minutes: They showed definite concerns over inflation, and that gave the report a dovish bias. Meanwhile, most on the Committee preferred to defer the announce balance sheet unwinding until the upcoming (September 19, 20) meeting. Most members still expect inflation to pick up over the medium term, and still see a Phillips Curve connection between a tighter labor market and rising wage and price pressures, though a few doubted the validity of the framework. A number of causes for the sluggishness in inflation were bandied about, suggesting it’s not just idiosyncratic factors weighing. Some participants believed there was room for the FOMC to be patient on further rate hikes. But others saw inflation moving on a clear path toward the 2% target and were concerned about the effect of a tighter labor market. On the appropriate pace of normalization of the funds rate, the FOMC fell back to acknowledging it would depend on how financial conditions evolved. As for the balance sheet, it looks as though it will be announced at the September 19, 20 meeting. “Although several participants were prepared to announce a starting date for the program at the current meeting, most preferred to defer that decision until an upcoming meeting while accumulating additional information on the economic outlook and developments potentially affecting financial markets.”

                    US Housing Starts: The July U.S. housing starts report revealed declines of 4.8% for starts, 4.1% for permits, and 6.2% for completions, after small net upward revisions that sustained big June bounces from weak May levels, leaving a weaker than expected report. July declines were led by the multi-family sector, with drop-backs in the northeast and midwest after June gains, but with substantial weakness in the south since a spike in January that has left starts underperforming other housing series. We saw a third consecutive drop for the important starts under construction series, which hasn’t risen since April. Starts and permits have shown a 2017 pullback after a weather-led Q4 surge, while completions were strong through Q1 before stabilizing.

                    Main Macro Events Today

                    Eurozone CPI – The Eurozone CPI for July is due this morning and expected to show no change in the (YoY) headline figure at 1.3% (MoM dipping to -0.5%) and the key Core CPI (YoY) ticking up to 1.2% (from 1.1%) and MoM no change at 0.2%.

                    US Initial Jobless – Initial claims data for the week of August 12 are out today and should ease down to 238k for the week from 244k last week and 241k in the week prior. Overall, claims in August look poised to improve over July with an anticipated 240k month average, down from 242k in July. This supports expectations for continued strength in the labour market.

                    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

                    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

                    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


                    Stuart Cowell
                    Senior Market Analyst
                    HotForex


                    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      Date : 18th August 2017.

                      MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th August 2017.




                      FX News Today

                      European Outlook: Risk aversion is back. Sharp losses on Wall Street were followed by a largely negative session in Asia, with the Nikkei underperforming and down more than -1.2% amid a stronger yen. Concerns over Trump and the terror attacks in Spain have prompted investors to head for safety and Bund futures rallied in after hour trade, pointing to a fresh drop in core yields. FTSE 100 futures are down, although U.S. stock futures are stabilizing. Today’s local calendar has Eurozone current account and construction output numbers, none of which are likely to detract markets from a focus on geo-politics.

                      German producer prices: higher than expected, with the headline rate falling back only slighty to 2.3% y/y from 2.4% y/y in the previous month. Annual price increases for basic goods eased further, but at 3.0% y/y the rate remains high and the pace of decline since the peak in April has slowed, despite the strong EUR. At the same time, energy price inflation picked up to 1.9% y/y from 1.6% y/y. Capitsl, and durable goods price inflation ticked marginally higher, but remains low at 1.1% y/y for each category. Bund futures corrected from the highs seen in after hour trade yesterday, but remain up on the day.

                      Yesterday’s US Reports: reveal solid factory and labor market readings that signal ongoing upside risk for GDP and payroll growth, though we saw a 4-year low of 10.3 mln for the July vehicle assembly rate that shows a big hit from this year’s auto retooling pattern. Industrial production rose 0.2% in July after upward revisions that left an as-expected report. We saw a solid 18.9 August Philly Fed figure, with a big ISM-adjusted Philly Fed bounce to 56.9 from 53.0. Given Tuesday’s Empire State headline surge to a 3-year high of 25.2 from 9.8, producer sentiment appears to be stabilizing at remarkably high levels. We also saw a 12k initial claims drop to a lean 232k in the BLS survey week, leaving a lean 237k average thus far in August. Finally, leading indicators rose 0.3% in July to leave a solid 11-month string of gains, and the Bloomberg consumer comfort index rose to a 52.1 cycle-high.

                      ECB minutes: stressed need for caution with regard not just to changes in communication, but also the timing of the next announcement. On the one hand council members feared overreactions in markets to changes in communication, on the other hand some seemed to warn that leaving the announcement on the future of QE too late would likely see markets making up their own mind and leave the ECB with the task of correcting out of synch expectations. Council members noted the tightening impact of the stronger EUR and some raised the risk of overshooting currency markets, putting exchange rate developments into the spotlight going ahead. The ECB wants to maintain its flexibility with regard to asset purchases, but members also raised the issue of flows/versus stock of assets. Indeed the last time around Draghi reduced monthly purchase volumes, but still stressed that this meant a further expansion of stimulus, with just the pace of expansion reduced somewhat. It could well be that rather than laying out a full tapering schedule for the phasing out of monthly purchases Draghi will stick to a similar line and focus just on the next part of what is likely to be a very gradual reduction of QE. The minutes didn’t give a clearer hint on the timing of the announcement, beyond the “autumn” schedule Draghi already indicated at the meeting.

                      Main Macro Events Today

                      Canadian CPI – The CPI expected to come in flat (0.0%) for July relative to June, leaving a pick-up in the annual growth rate to 1.2% in July from 1.0% in June. Gasoline prices plunged in June before improving only modestly through July. Indeed, the average gasoline price in July was actually modestly below the average price in June (prices started firm in June, then tracked sharply lower into near month end). Also, the loonie staged a furious rally in July amid the BoC’s rate hike and hawkish guidance. Finally, Ontario electricity prices should again knock total inflation lower, as time of use pricing was chopped roughly 15% by government decree. (This is one of the temporary factors cited by Poloz on inflation back in July.)

                      US UoM CSI – The first August release on Michigan Sentiment is out today and should post an increase to 94.0 from 93.4 in July and 95.1 in June. Other confidence measures are looking stronger in August as well with the IBD/TIPP Poll rising to 52.2 from 50.2 in July and the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort survey poised to average 51.8 from 48.3 in July.

                      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                      Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

                      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

                      Click HERE to READ more Market news.


                      Stuart Cowell
                      Senior Market Analyst
                      HotForex


                      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        Date : 21st August 2017.

                        MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st August 2017.




                        FX News Today

                        The Jackson Hole symposium at the end of the week will be the focal point on the calendar, while U.S. politics and geopolitical factors may become sidebars. Friday’s agenda for the annual Kansas City central banker meeting (this year on “Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy”) includes two key speeches, one by Fed Chair Yellen and the other from ECB President Draghi. Despite being temporarily eclipsed by terror events and political machinations, perceptions about central bank policies remain a major force in market direction.

                        United States: the political fallout after the tragedy in Charlottesville and the cabinet reshuffling, instilled doubt in investors who began to price in doubts that President Trump will be able to effect his infrastructure plans and/or tax reforms this year, while the terror events in Barcelona, Spain and Turku, Finland added to anxieties. Worries that Cohn might resign shook stocks mid-week. Of global interest will be whether these moves bring some stability to the White House and an opportunity to move the agenda forward. The U.S. economic calendar is relatively light one this week, starting off (Monday) with the Chicago Fed national activity index, followed (Tuesday) by a ragtag mix of FHFA home prices, Markit flash manufacturing PMI and the Richmond Fed index. The schedule gets more interesting midweek with the release of housing data. New home sales are forecast to dip 1.3% to 602k in July (Wednesday), while EIA energy inventory and MBA mortgage market reports are due too. Initial jobless claims may rebound 6k to 238k (Thursday) for the August-19 week, while Markit services flash PMI is on tap. July durable goods orders are expected to give back -6.0% of June’s 6.4% jump (Friday).

                        Nevertheless, Fed Chair Yellen will speak at Jackson Hole on August 25 at 10 ET. Her topic is “financial stability.” It’s not clear that she’ll offer any surprises on the policy outlook given what we know from the recent minutes, Fedspeak, and data. The FOMC is now widely expected to announce balance sheet unwinding next month.

                        Canada: final inputs to the June GDP forecast are due out early this week. Wholesale shipments (Monday) are expected to fall. Retail sales values (Tuesday) are projected to rise 0.3% m/m in June after the 0.6% expansion in May. Another firm month is expected for seasonally adjusted vehicle sales. But CPI implies a drag on retail sales values from falling prices. Notably, falling gasoline prices should weigh on total and ex-autos retail sales. The exclusion of vehicle sales should leave a tiny 0.1% gain in June sales. Retail sales volumes have expanded in all but one month this year. Combined with the pick-up in total ondata and core CPI during July, the Bank of Canada is on track for another rate hike this year. However this week, there is again nothing on the docket from the Bank of Canada. The next scheduled event is the September 6 policy announcement.

                        Europe: Draghi’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday will be taking center stage. But in the light of the fresh flare up in risk aversion and ongoing geopolitical tensions, he is unlikely to clarify the future of the ECB’s quantitative easing program just yet. The ECB has confirmed that Draghi will be speaking on the general theme of the conference rather than Eurozone specifics. Data releases this week focus on August confidence numbers, which should support the ECB’s view that the recovery continues to broaden. The German ZEW investor confidence (Tuesday) expected to be particularly impacted by the latest spell of risk aversion in markets and are looking for a decline in the headline August reading to 16.0 from 17.5 in July. The German Ifo Business Climate are out on Friday. On a Eurozone-wide level, the preliminary August Services PMI (Wednesday) is expected steady at 55.4. Eurozone preliminary consumer confidence numbers are also due. Detailed readings for Q2 GDP from Germany and Spain, meanwhile, are not expected to bring major surprises, with German rate likely to show strong domestic demand, driven by consumer and government consumption, as well as investments.

                        UK: The economy has slumped into relative stagnation this year, associated with Brexit concerns. The calendar this week is relatively quiet, highlighted by second estimate Q2 GDP data (Thursday), which is likely to confirm growth at 0.3% q/q , half the Eurozone growth figure for the same quarter. The August industrial trends and distributive sales surveys are also out from the CBI (Tuesday and Thursday, respectively).

                        New Zealand’s calendar has the trade balance (Thursday), expected to shift to a NZ$100 mln deficit in July from the NZ$242 mln surplus in June. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets next on September 28. We expect no change to the current 1.75% rate setting through year-end.

                        Japan: the June all-industry index (Monday) should rebound 0.5% m/m versus the prior 0.9% decline. The calendar then goes dark until Friday, when CPI figures are due. July national CPI is seen rising at a 0.5% y/y overall from 0.4 previously, and 0.5% y/y from 0.4% on a core basis. Tokyo August overall CPI is penciled in at a 0.2% y/y rate from 0.1%, while the core reading is expected unchanged at 0.2% y/y. July services PPI (Friday) is forecast accelerating to 0.9% y/y from 0.8% in June.

                        Australia: the week that is devoid of economic data and RBA events. The next report of interest is July building approvals, due August 30. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on September 5. No change is expected to the current 1.50% policy setting, alongside a statement that remains consistent with no change in rates through the middle of next year.

                        Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                        Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                        Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

                        Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

                        Click HERE to READ more Market news.


                        Stuart Cowell
                        Senior Market Analyst
                        HotForex


                        Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          Date : 22nd August 2017.

                          MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd August 2017.




                          FX News Today

                          European Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly moved higher in quiet trade, after Wall Street managed to close with slight gains. Hong Kong stocks outperformed on positive earnings report, while Japan underperformed despite a weaker Yen. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are moving higher and it seems risk appetite is slowly returning, after being knocked back by geopolitics. Bund futures continued to rise though in after hour trade yesterday the 10-year Bund yield, which closed below 0.4% may make little headway at the start. The local calendar is hotting up today, providing some distraction from the political arena. German ZEW investor confidence and the U.K.’s CBI industrial trends survey will give a flavour of the economic situation on both sides of the Channel and the U.K. also has public finance data for July.

                          FX Update: The dollar has traded softer versus many currencies during the pre-London session in Asia, including against the euro, and commodity and emerging world currencies, though the greenback gained versus the yen. A revival in risk appetite brought some pressure on the Japanese currency, while there remains a degree of position jostling ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium (which starts on Thursday). USD-JPY lifted back to the low 109.0s after dipping yesterday to a low of 108.63, which by our data is 3 pips above last Friday’s four-month low. EUR-USD, meanwhile, ebbed back to the 1.1800 level after yesterday logging a one-week high at 1.1828, and USD-CAD carved out an 18-day low at 1.2547 and AUD-USD a three-session peak, at 0.7950. Cable has entered its fifth consecutive session of orbiting 1.2900.

                          Canada’s wholesale report maintained the outlook for weak June GDP, with a flat reading (0.0%) expected after the 0.6% GDP surge in May. Wholesale shipment volumes fell 0.7% in June. The final ingredient for GDP is today’s retail sales report, where a 0.3% gain is expected in total shipment values, which a larger (0.5% or better) improvement in volumes. Housing starts grew 9.5% to a 212.9k pace in June from 194.5k in May. Hence, the contribution from construction production should be positive. The outlook for mining, oil and gas production is to the downside. Energy export values plummeted 9.2% m/m in June while petroleum and coal manufacturing shipment values dropped 7.1%. However, the erosion in petro and coal values was driven by falling prices, suggestive of a less pronounced decline in the GDP report’s petro and coal volume measure. A flat reading in June GDP would leave a lofty 3.7% growth pace for Q2. Moreover, any pull-back in June GDP should be temporary. Hence, the broader theme of upbeat growth remains supportive of a 25 bp rate hike from the BoC to 1.00% in October.

                          Main Macro Events Today

                          German ZEW Sentiment – German ZEW investor confidence expected to be particularly impacted by the latest spell of risk aversion in markets and are looking for a decline in the headline August reading to 15.5 from 17.5 in July.

                          Canada retail sales – Retail sales, expected to rise 0.3% m/m in June after the 0.6% expansion in May. Another firm month is expected for seasonally adjusted vehicle sales. CPI implies a drag on retail sales values from falling prices. Notably, falling gasoline prices should weigh on total and ex-autos retail sales, and hence we’d put the risk to the downside on this report.

                          Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                          Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                          Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

                          Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

                          Click HERE to READ more Market news.


                          Andria Pichidi
                          Market Analyst
                          HotForex


                          Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                          Comment


                          • #58
                            Date : 23rd August 2017.

                            MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd August 2017.




                            FX News Today

                            European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved higher, after a positive session on Wall Street amid reports of progress on Trump’s overhaul of the tax code and a solid PMI reading from Japan. The Hang Seng continues to outperform and is currently up 0.91%. The ASX underperformed and is down -0.28%, U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also in the red, so the rebound in equity markets seems to be petering out already. The Bund future fell in after hour trade, before stabilising, but after yesterday’s blow out in Eurozone spreads the main question is how peripheral yields cope with lingering tapering concerns ahead of Draghi’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday. Draghi is already scheduled to speak at a meeting on economic sciences in Germany this morning. The calendar also has preliminary Eurozone PMI readings for August, which are expected to nudge lower again, especially after yesterday’s weak ZEW reading. Growth will remain robust, but just not as strong as so far it seems. On tab is also a German 10-year auction.

                            US reports: flat U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index at 14 in August after rising 3 points to that level in July amid broadbased gains. The year-to-date range has been from 3 (May) to 19 (February) and was at 1 in October. The employment component increased to 17 after doubling to 10 in July from June’s 5, The growth in prices paid slowed to 1.49% pace versus 1.78% previously, with prices received at 0.91% from 0.99%. . All in all, it was a solid report that reflects the ongoing trend of decent growth and slumping prices. U.S. FHFA home price index edged up 0.1% to 249.3 in June after rising 0.3% to 249.1 in May, Prices are up 6.5% y/y. Six of the nine regions surveyed posted gains, led by the Pacific (1.0%) and the West South Central (0.8%).Home prices were up in nearly every state, according to the report. Tight inventories were cited as the factor propping up prices every quarter over the last six years.

                            Canada’s 0.5% gain in retail shipment volumes contrasted with recent disappointing monthly industry data. The rise in retail sales volumes added to the run of gains from January to May. There was a less severe than anticipated 0.7% drop in wholesale shipment volumes and a 1.0% drop in manufacturing volumes. Housing starts grew 9.5% to a 212.9k pace in June. Hence, the contribution from construction production should be positive. But the outlook for mining, oil and gas production is to the downside. Energy export values plummeted 9.2% m/m in June while petroleum and coal manufacturing shipment values dropped 7.1%. However, the erosion in petro and coal values was driven by falling prices, suggestive of a less pronounced decline in the GDP report’s petro and coal volume measure. A 0.1% gain in June GDP would leave a lofty 3.9% growth pace for Q2.

                            Main Macro Events Today

                            EU Services PMI – On a Eurozone-wide level, the preliminary August Services PMI is expected steady at 55.4 , and the manufacturing reading slightly lower at 56.3 from 56.6 in July.

                            US Home Sales – New home sales are forecast to dip 1.3% to 602k in July, while EIA energy inventory are out today too.

                            US Markit PMI – The preliminary August Services PMI is expected steady at 55.3 , and the manufacturing reading slightly lower at 56.4 from 56.6 in July.

                            Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                            Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                            Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

                            Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

                            Click HERE to READ more Market news.


                            Andria Pichidi
                            Market Analyst
                            HotForex


                            Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                            Comment


                            • #59
                              Date : 24th August 2017.

                              MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th August 2017.




                              FX News Today

                              European Outlook: Asian markets mostly higher despite fresh concerns about Trump’s ability to pass his fiscal agenda. The Hang Seng continued to outperform on earnings optimism and amid strong volumes as markets reopened after a Typhoon interruption. The ASX is little changed as commodity profits offset Trump Concerns, but the Nikkei was weighed down by steelmakers. FTSE 100 futures are moving higher and U.S. futures are heading south as the Jackson Hole meeting draws nearer. European peripherals have been feeling the chill of tapering concerns after better than expected PMI readings and amid concerns that Draghi will use tomorrow’s speech to commit to a tapering schedule. This will likely ensure Bund outperformance versus peripherals, while Gilts as well as the FTSE 100 are underpinned by a weakening Pound. Today’s calendar focuses on the second reading of U.K. Q2 GDP as well as the CBI distributive trade survey.

                              Fedspeak: Yesterday Fed’s Kaplan reiterated balance sheet runoff should begin soon, while he also repeated he wants to be patient on further rate hikes. He was holding a Q&A session at a Permian Basin Petroleum Association luncheon. He wants more information on inflation trends. He attributed some of the softness in prices is likely the result of technological breakthroughs. But, he also believes that tight labor market conditions do argue for removal of some accommodation. On the oil markets he added that the they are in a fragile equilibrium currently. Shale and African drillers are offsetting OPEC cuts. But, there is a good chance of a global under-supply in 5 or 7 years. Notable is the fact that Kaplan is a voter who’s recently become more worried about the slowing in price pressures.

                              US reports: a big 9.4% U.S. July new home sales drop to a 571k rate followed 46k in upward revisions over the prior three months to leave a stronger than expected report overall. A modest Q2-Q3 unwind of a big Q1 sales boost from a mild winter. New home sales have risen 111% from the 273k record-low in February of 2011, alongside smaller cyclical climbs of 44% for pending home sales and 60% for existing home sales from lows in 2010. Meanwhile, U.S. August Markit manufacturing PMI fell 0.8 points to 52.5 in the preliminary print, unwinding some of the 1.3 point gain to 53.3 in July. It was 52.0 a year ago. However, the services index jumped 2.2 points to 56.9 after rising 0.5 points to 54.7 in July. This is the highest since April 2015. It was 51.0 a year ago.

                              Eurozone: Draghi hailed QE at a conference yesterday in Germany and forward guidance as success, saying that research showed that while forward guidance is “a useful instrument” “its effectiveness can be improved with other non-standard monetary policies”. Speaking at a conference on economic science Draghi said “research has confirmed that central banks are not powerless at the effective lower bound”, but stressed that policy makers must continue “preparing for new challenges”, and that “when the world chances”, policies and “especially monetary policies need to be adjusted”. Nothing there that directly refers to the future of QE. On Economic data prospective, Eurozone PMIs suggested inflation is on the mend, with Markit reporting that the “recent trend of easing inflationary pressures came to an end in August, with cost inflation picking up for the first time since February”. At the same time, the manufacturing PMI showed that manufacturing orders were boosted by “the fastest rise in exports for six-and-a-half years”. So quite a bit there to boost the arguments of the hawks at the ECB and dampen concerns about the strong EUR.

                              Main Macro Events Today

                              Jackson Hole – The symposium begins today and the markets will be wary of comments coming out of the annual central banker gather. Most important will be Friday’s speeches from Fed Chair Yellen (10ET) and ECB President Draghi (13 ET). However, past performance (at Jackson Hole) is no guarantee of future results. So, while monetary authorities have often used this venue to hint, or even outline, new policy measures, it is not expect that to be the case this time. There isn’t much new that Yellen can say given the recent update in the FOMC minutes and via Fedspeak and data. It looks as though balance sheet unwinding is a done deal for the fall. And it’s too early, and inappropriate for her to presage rate action over the rest of the year. Meanwhile, the ECB has indicated Draghi will have nothing new to say and will focus on the theme of the symposium, “Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy.”

                              UK GDP- Q2 GDP data is likely to confirm growth at 0.3% q/q , half the Eurozone growth figure for the same quarter.

                              US Initial Jobless Claims – Initial jobless claims expected to rebound 6k to 238k for the August-19 week.

                              US Existing Home Sales – July existing home sales data is out today and should post a 1.4% headline improvement to a 5.570 mlnpace after a 1.8% dip to 5.520 mln in June. Other housing measures weakened in July with the NAHB dipping to 64 from 66 in June and housing starts dropping to 1,155k from 1,213k in June.

                              Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                              Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                              Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

                              Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

                              Click HERE to READ more Market news.


                              Andria Pichidi
                              Market Analyst
                              HotForex


                              Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                              Comment


                              • #60
                                Date : 25th August 2017.

                                MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th August 2017.




                                FX News Today

                                European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved mostly higher, going into the Jackson Hole meeting of central bankers, where Draghi and Yellen will take centre stage. The ASX underperformed and fluctuated between gains and losses, while the Nikkei managed to move higher, lifted by automakers, as the yen is heading for a weekly loss. Hang Seng and CSI 300 outperformed. U.K. stock futures are down, but U.S. futures are posting gains. Oil prices are down and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 47.76 per barrel. Today the real focus will be on Yellen and in particular Draghi, with the latter unlikely to lay out a full tapering schedule, but it will be interesting to see whether he is laying the groundwork for a change in focus in the policy communication as the central bank heads for a gradual reduction of additional stimulus measures.

                                Today’s German Q2 GDP was confirmed at 0.6% q/q, as expected. The breakdown showed that growth rested on domestic demand, with investment remaining robust, while Q1 investment data was revised up markedly. A further confirmation that the current recovery is unusually for Germany as it is not the export led recovery that we have seen in previous cycles. Rather it is domestic demand that is propping up growth, also thanks to the ECB and the policy of easy money, which is underpinning consumption as well as investment. The robust data will also back Weidmann’s calls for an end to QE though. German import price inflation came in lower than anticipated, with the annual rate falling back to 1.9% from 2.5% y/y in the previous month. Prices were down -0.4% m/m. The strong EUR is leaving its mark and will likely to continue to bring import price inflation down, with the annual rate now back below the ECB’s 2% mark.

                                US reports: U.S. reports revealed a weak round of July existing home sales figures but a firm set of initial claims data through mid-August, hence slightly trimming forecasts for the residential component of Q3 GDP, but adding to the upside risk for 190k August nonfarm payroll estimate. We saw a 1.3% July existing home sales drop to a 5.44 mln pace that undershot estimates, alongside smaller downside surprises for median prices and inventories after downward revisions for all three in June. For claims, we saw a 2k rise to a still-lean 234k in the third week of August that left a lean trajectory into the month. Claims are averaging juste 236k in August, versus higher prior averages of 242k in July, 243k in June, 241k in May, and 243k in April, while the 232k BLS survey week figure undershot recent BLS survey weak readings of 234k in July, 242k in June, 233k in May, and 243k in April.

                                Main Macro Events Today

                                German IFO – German Ifo Business Climate, should still benefit from the strong orders inflow and therefore a small fall back is expected from record highs to 115.7 in August from 116.0.

                                US Durable Goods- Durable goods data for July expected at a -5.7% headline with shipments down 0.3% and inventories at 0.2%. This follows June data which had orders up 6.4%, sales unchanged and inventories up 0.5% for the month. There were significant dips in vehicle assemblies and Boeing orders for the month which could weigh on the release.

                                Jacksol Hole – Fed Chair Yellen will speak at Jackson Hole today at 10 ET. Her topic is “financial stability.” ECB’s Draghi was confirmed to speak at 13:00 ET.

                                Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                                Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

                                Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

                                Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

                                Click HERE to READ more Market news.


                                Andria Pichidi
                                Market Analyst
                                HotForex


                                Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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