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  • Market news update today,

    01 Feb. 2018
    2:00am USD: Manufacturing PMI (Fcst. 56.5, Pre. 56.3)
    9:30am EUR: ISM Manufacturing PMI (Fcst.58.7, Pre. 59.7)

  • #2
    GBP/USD - British pound slide continues as cable drops under 1.30

    GBP/USD has posted losses for a third straight day. In Wednesdays North American session, the pair is trading at 1.2999, the length of 0.57% going vis--vis for the hours of daylight. On the reprieve stomach, there are no major comings and goings in the U.K. or the U.S. On Thursday, the U.S. releases producer price index reports and unemployment claims.

    The Bank of England has sent out a publication of a bias towards tightening rates, but is anybody listening? Last week BoE Governor Mark Carney that current markets expectations of in the distance and wide along rate hikes were too modest. This hawkish stance is fruitless to catch the attention of investors and the pound didn't hop at the BoEs command. Instead, GDP/USD has declined 1.25% in view of that far away from this week and is an investigation of the symbolic 1.30 level. The BoE has raised its predict for U.K growth to 1.5%, taking place from the previous prediction of 1.2% and inflation is hovering unventilated to the BoEs want of 2.0%. With these healthy numbers, investors don't expect rate hikes anytime soon, especially considering the lingering uncertainty on height above sea level of Brexit.

    With Brexit elongated until October, the focus is now regarding speaking Theresa May will she survive as Prime Minister? There are growing calls upon May to set a renunciation date, and that subside-date could be hastened if she reaches a mad-party agreement as soon as the Labor party. There has been speculation that May is looking to enter an auxiliary customs sticking to in imitation of Brussels, maddening many of her Tory colleagues, who see such a contract has blocked the U.K. from pursuing an independent trade policy. Brexit talks together surrounded by London and Brussels are set to resume, but the track stamp album indicates that the parties will have a tough period closing the gaps in their positions.


    • #3
      Dollar Stabilizes After Williams Inflames Rate Hopes

      The U.S. dollar was consolidating at degrade levels Friday daylight in Europe and was about the track to drop the week about the order of where it started, after a speech from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams revived hopes of a large union rate scrape at the Feds adjoining policy meeting.

      "It's augmented to comply to preventative measures than to wait for a catastrophe to unfold," Williams (NYSE: WMB) told a central banking conference. "When you lonely have as a result much stimulus at your disposal, it pays to act speedily to demean rates at the first sign of economic pretend to have."

      The comment revived hopes that the Fed will condense its Fed funds rate by 50 basis points rather than the more modest 25 basis narrowing consensus view at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in substitute note to July 30-31. Speeches progressive by the Feds Eric Rosengren and James Bullard will run to meet the expense of auxiliary clues as to whether Williams is the majority view.

      The observations knocked the dollar index, which tracks the greenback neighboring-entrance to a basket of developed-way of monster currencies, along with to by concerning half a percent late going regarding for Thursday, but it recovered overnight to trade at 96.537 by 3:05 AM ET (0705 GMT).

      The prospect of easier U.S. monetary policy has precise emerging verify central banks more confidence to graze their own combined rates without undermining their currencies. Indonesia, South Korea, and South Africa all shorten their key rates by 25 basis points more or less Thursday, but the rupiah hit an additional 15-month high considering door to the dollar, even though the rand hit a seven-month high.

      In Europe, the euro and sterling, as well as both, profited from Williams remarks, the British pound rising above $1.25 in assist more after down a two-year low under $1.24 earlier this week. The euro rose as tall as $1.1282, talk to retreating to $1.1263, moreover lower-than-traditional German producer prices in June reminding traders of feigning from the European Central Bank at its governing council meeting adjoining-dealings week.

      Bloomberg reported upon Thursday that the ECB had begun a review of how it defines its inflation want, something that could ultimately profit to its monetary policy staying looser for longer.


      • #4
        USD/CAD Pair Value Analysis: higher than 20-day MA however trapped in a very falling channel

        1. USD/CAD pair remains stuck in a very falling channel, as per the hourly chart.
        2. The 100- and 200-hour averages are teasing a bullish crossover.

        The USD/CAD pair is sitting simply higher than the 20-day average at 1.4036 at press time, having hit a high of 1.4078 in early Asia.
        The Forex currency pair has pulled back from session highs despite the upcoming bullish crossover of the 100&200-hour averages.
        While the upcoming bullish cross suggests the path of least resistance is to the upper facet, Monday's Doji candle and Tuesday's bearish follow through recommend otherwise. The Forex pair, therefore, risks falling to the 200-hour average at 1.4022 - 1.40.
        A channel break-out, if confirmed, would imply a finish of the drop from the March three high of 1.4151. However, stronger proof of bullish breakout would be higher than Monday's high of 1.4153.


        • #5
          USD/JPY currency pair holds higher than 106.40 despite DXY slide
          • Dollar weakens throughout American session however holds on to gains versus JPY.
          • USD/JPY currency pair off lows however still down for the week, negative outlook.

          The USD/JPY pair is approaching daily highs once more, after finding support around 106.40. The currency pair peaked earlier after the start of the American session and following the U.S. employment report at 106.71, the best level in 3 days.

          The dramatic April NFP numbers were expected by market participants. The dollar rose with modesty then again turned to the drawback. The United States economy lost 20.5 million jobs, the worst report ever. Still, traders still specialize in the long term that doesn't appear bright at the instant. “As tragic as this variety is, it comes as very little surprise as quite twenty-six million people had filed for unemployment advantages between the March employment survey and also the April survey. Sadly, there'll be additional job losses reported when they could report is published next month as a result of seven million additional people have subsequently filed for unemployment benefits”, explained analysts at Wells Fargo.

          Wall Street indexes are higher on Friday, extending weekly gains. Easing lockdown restrictions across the globe boosted risk craving. The yen was significantly hit by some optimism on Thursday and Friday, trimming gains against most of its rivals.
          The U.S. dollar index is up for the week, however off highs. It reversed on Thursday from weekly highs amid increasing expectations concerning negative rates from the Federal Reserve. It stands below 99.70, within the middle of the vary of the last thirty days.

          USD/JPY currency pair: Weekly chart shows bearish bias intact

          The dollar is near to post the fourth weekly decline in a very row. USD/JPY pair found support at 106.00 and bounced. The weekly chart continues to be biased to the drawback, and a slide below 106.00 would keep the road open for 105.00.
          On the flip aspect, the USD/JPY pair can probably face resistance at 107.50. a detailed higher than the 20-WMA, presently at 108.60, would take away the bearish pressure.


          • #6
            GBP/USD currency pair struggles close to multi-week lows, simply higher than mid-1.2100s post-US retail sales
            • An unexpected pickup within the USD demand prompted some recent selling around GBP/USD pair on Friday.
            • Escalating US-China tensions crumpled the already weaker sentiment and underpinned the USD.
            • Worse-than-expected US monthly Retail Sales information did very little to produce any significant impetus.
            An unexpected pickup within the United States dollar demand pushed the GBP/USD pair to recent 7-week lows, around mid-1.2100s within the last hour. The pair maintained its heavily offered tone and had a rather muted reaction to the United States macro knowledge.

            The market sentiment remained fragile within the wake of growing fears regarding the second wave of coronavirus infections and weakening hopes for a fast world economic recovery. The already weaker sentiment deteriorated any amid worsening US-China trade relations, particularly when the United States Commerce Department declared to bar Huawei from exploiting semiconductors and chipsets created using US software system and technology.

            The subsequent tweet by Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the global Times, sent a transparent message that China wants to reply. This, in turn, crumpled investors' craving for riskier, which was evident from a recent leg down within the equity markets and provided a goodish raise to the greenback's perceived safe-haven standing. Resurgent USD demand was seen mutually of the key factors behind the pair's sharp collapse the past hour close to.

            The USD control steady following the discharge people monthly Retail Sales report for Apr, which showed a worse-than-expected, 6.4% the headline figures. Adding to the current, sales excluding autos plunged 17.2% throughout the according month closely watched Retail Sales management group also recorded a steep decline of 15.3%.

            Given that the market was already anticipating calamitous numbers on the rear of nationwide lockdowns, the information did very little to influence the USD value dynamics and supply any significant impetus to the GBP/USD pair major. It will currently be fascinating to envision if the pair is ready to search out any support at lower levels or continues with its current pessimistic flight. Its value mentioning that the pair has already confirmed a bearish break through the double-top neck support close to the 1.2300 marks and thence remains liable to slide any.


            • #7
              GBP/USD currency pair value Analysis: Recovery stalls close to 200-hour SMA/descending trend-line confluence barrier
              1. GBP/USD currency pair added to the previous day’s sturdy recovery move from multi-week lows.
              2. Mixed oscillators on hourly/daily charts warrant some caution for aggressive forex traders.

              The GBP/USD currency pair designed on the previous day's sturdy intraday recovery from multi-week lows and gained some follow-through traction for the second consecutive session on Tuesday. The currency pair shot to a four-day high level of 1.2267, albeit struggled to increase the momentum and failing close to a declivitous trend-line resistance extending from late-April swing highs.

              The mentioned hurdle currently coincides with 200-hour SMA and may act as a key important purpose for traders because the focus now shifts to the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's congressional testimony.

              Meanwhile, technical indicators on hourly charts are gaining positive traction and support prospects for an extension of the pair's current recovery from sub-1.2100 levels. However, oscillators on the daily chart are however to catch up with the momentum and maintained their bearish bias, warranting some caution before putting any aggressive bullish bets.

              Hence, it'll be prudent to attend for a sustained strength on the far side of the mentioned confluence hurdle before positioning for any more near-term appreciating move for the most important. The currency pair may then head towards reclaiming the 1.2300 round-figure marks before bulls eventually aim to check the following major hurdle close to the 1.2330-40 horizontal level.

              On the flip facet, weakness back below the 1.2200 marks can reinforce the stiff resistance and may prompt some recent selling, dragging the currency pair any towards the 1.2175 support. Some follow-through selling currently appears to show the currency pair at risk of accelerates the autumn back towards the 1.2100 marks with some intermediate support close to the 1.2130 area.


              • #8
                Forex Market Analysis - NZD/USD currency pair remains confined during a range below 0.6200 marks, 100-DMA
                • NZD/USD currency pair gained some traction amid the emergence of some recent USD selling.
                • The upbeat market mood weighed on the safe-haven USD and benefitted the kiwi.
                • Concerns regarding worsening US-China relations may keep a lid on any sturdy gains.
                • A sustained move on the far side 0.6200 marks required to verify a near-term bullish bias.
                The NZD/USD currency pair lacked any firm directional bias and listed during a narrow forex trading band, just under the 0.6200 mark through the first European session.
                The currency pair stalled the nightlong pullback from 2-1/2 month tops close to mid-0.6100s and managed to regain some positive traction on Thursday. The uptick was supported by the upbeat market mood and a few revived US greenback selling pressure.
                The global risk sentiment remained well supported by optimism over a possible COVID-19 and hopes of a pointy formed recovery for the world economy. This, in turn, damaged the greenback’s relative safe-haven standing and benefitted perceived riskier currencies, just like the kiwi.
                Meanwhile, investors stay involved a few more increase in diplomatic tensions between the U.S. and China, which ought to hold back bullish traders from putting recent bets and keep a lid on any sturdy gains for the NZD/USD currency pair.
                Even from a technical perspective, the currency pair has been troubled to search out acceptance/build on its momentum on the far side 100-day SMA close to the 0.6200 marks.
                Moving ahead, market participants currently expect to a slew of necessary U.S. country macro information for a few recent impetuses later throughout the first North American session. Thursday’s US economic docket highlights the discharge of the second estimate of Q1 GDP, consumer goods Orders for April, Initial Weekly unemployed Claims, and unfinished Home Sales.


                • #9
                  EUR/USD pair stays consolidative close to 1.1330, appearance to Powell, data
                  • EUR/USD pair alternates gains with losses around 1.1330.
                  • German Economic Sentiment improves to 63.4 in June.
                  • Fed’s J.Powell, Retail Sales next to connection event-wise.
                  The prevailing side-lined theme within the international markets is motivating EUR/USD to increase the consolidative mood higher than the 1.1300 marks at the time of writing.

                  EUR/USD pair targeted on data, Powell
                  EUR/USD currency pair is unsteady within the low-1.1300s on turnaround Tuesday, trying to feature to Monday’s sturdy gains though losing some top side impetus within the one.1350 regions to this point.
                  In fact, the currency pair regained buying interest at the start of the week in response to a wave of selling pressure round the buck, notably when the Federal Reserve declared further purchases below its Secondary Market corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF).
                  Moving forward, the dollar is predicted to be below scrutiny later within the session in lightweight of the discharge of May’s Retail Sales, Industrial/Manufacturing Production, and also the testimony by Chief J.Powell before the Senate Banking Committee, as a part of the Semi-annual financial Policy report back to the Congress.
                  Earlier within the session, the German Economic Sentiment came in higher than estimates this month, rebounding to 63.4 (from 51.0). Within the broader Euroland, the Economic Sentiment conjointly improved quite forecast at 58.6 (from 46.0).

                  What to seem for around EUR
                  EUR/USD pair has opened the week on a powerful note when the Fed declared another spherical of recent financial stimulus, undermining the in so far positive momentum around the greenback. The constructive read within the euro, however, remains well sustained by the gradual and relentless re-opening of economies in Europe and by the continuing financial stimulus declared by the ECB, Germany, and also the European Commission. On top, the solid performance of the region’s accounting is additionally adding to the attractiveness of the shared currency.


                  • #10
                    AUD/USD pair value Analysis: Aussie keeps gains once the PBOC rate call
                    • AUD/USD's currency pair recovery rally continues as S&P five hundred futures flip positive.
                    • The PBOC unbroken key interest rates unchanged, of course.
                    • Technical charts maintain bearish bias despite AUD's bounce.
                    The Aussie greenback, a proxy for China, remains bid following the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) status quo rate call.

                    The financial organization unbroken the annual and five-year loan prime rates unchanged at 3.85% and 4.65%, severally. The bank was expected to keep up rates unchanged and has didn't have a notable impact on the Aussie greenback.

                    The AUD/USD currency pair is forex trading at session highs close to 0.6845, having a place in a very low of 0.6807 in early Asia. The currency pair had gapped lower, following the decline within the S&P five hundred futures. The stock futures fell because the U.S. and European nations witnessed a quicker increase within the range of coronavirus cases over the weekend and Australia reimposed coronavirus restrictions in its second-most thickly settled state.

                    The U.S. stock futures, however, erased losses and are news a 0.35% gain at press time. The turnaround possible helped the AUD bounce from the session low of 0.6807 to 0.6845.

                    However, from a technical analysis position, the currency pair must move higher than the lower high of 0.6976 created on June sixteen to revive the immediate bullish read. The five and 10-day easy moving averages have created a bearish crossover and will supply stiff resistance. The SMAs are presently settled at 0.6861 and 0.6890, severally.

                    A reversal lower from the short SMAs would usher in deeper declines to the 200-day SMA, presently at 0.6662.