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  • OK, what am I missing?

    Hi,

    Recently started looking at following signals. I've reviewed a bunch of sites and systems and these things stand out:

    1. Relatively new/unproven
    2. Cheap
    3. Amazing returns
    4. Goal alignment - the signal provides get paid for success and you make a profit

    I have to admit those last two are what are so attractive - I've used account managers before and don't mind paying for investment advice/management and these signals are very cost effective if they work as their history would suggest. I see there are/have been some systems that were scams but can some people here chime in - do the signals from reputable providers pay off as shown? Whats the catch??

    Thank you from someone just starting off!

    Mark

  • #2
    In my experience, the vast majority of the signals trade with unsafe money management of some description. They will do well for months, weeks, or even years and then have a huge loss (and likely blow the entire account up) in a very short space of time - weeks or months probably.

    A lot of times there are warning signs - huge open drawdown followed by a magical recovery (ie they were lucky this time).

    It's often not easy to see this happen. The MyFxBook and SimpleTrader charts don't make it obvious. For example, if you hold 10 positions, all offside for 75% of your account - this will not show in the charts history. If you close or open any trades at this point, the drawdown will get reported on the charts - and your chart will now look like crap, and you will have no investors.

    So what happens is, you sit on the open positions and hope for the best, maybe you get back to 10% drawdown or some such, at this point you can close those positions and all that gets shown on the chart is a pretty minor 10% drawdown - looks good for investors.

    Anyway, good luck.


    Comment


    • #3
      Hi Westie,

      OK, thanks for the response, its seems pretty quiet around here...

      Seems to me that the reputable traders would want to avoid a blow up and you do have some control over where you would invest/what kind of drawdowns could occur right? I guess like anything else it comes down to the person doing the trading and if they are responsible or not...

      Have you tried following a signal and if so did you see returns similar to what was reported?

      Thank you,

      Mark

      Comment


      • #4
        Here is the list of traders I have invested in here but have since quit. Some don't exist anymore, some blew accounts and disappeared, some struggled badly but are still going.

        A lot of them I left before the actual blow ups, sometimes at breakeven, often with heavy losses (Steady Capture for example was a heavy loss but would have been worse had I held on).

        Dilong - Blown up
        Joe Pro - Blown up
        USD/CAD Scalper - Blow up
        Calm Profits - Blow up
        Safe Aussie Scalper - Still going, martingale style trading
        Asad Reborn - Blown Up
        FX4 Charlie - No longer trading unfortunately, still around though, throughly good chap.
        Low Risk USD/CHF - Blown Up
        Red Rhino - Blown Up
        Steady Capture - Still going, doubt anyone is following anymore, out in January after something like 20% loss
        SatangFX - Having a tough time of it this year, I got out around breakeven on the 2nd or 3rd large drawdown.
        Some pips are enough - Still going, I found I was making losses when he was making profits due to slippage.
        Momentum capture - Still going, having a pretty bad last 6 months.

        Comment


        • #5
          Ah I see. I guess if the signal makes fewer trade then the slippage will be less of a factor, or does it relate more to the length of time in a trade?

          Thanks,

          Mark

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by mwaschkowski View Post
            Ah I see. I guess if the signal makes fewer trade then the slippage will be less of a factor, or does it relate more to the length of time in a trade?

            Thanks,

            Mark
            It's either trading really fast, for a small number of pips (scalping) or opening / closing trades at times of high volatility (eg Market Open).

            It's a fundamental problem of signal copying (or Darwinex, which is also a copying service - though they don't mention it).

            I'm no expert, but the process for a (buy) trade at market would be - best case :-

            1) Buy at Ask price sent to broker
            2) Some delay by the broker
            3) Accepted by broker, trade placed at Ask price

            Now with a trade copier (I'll annotate the slaves as A,B,C etc)

            1) Buy at Ask price sent to broker
            2) Some delay by the broker
            3) Accepted by broker, trade placed at Ask price in step 1
            A) Buy Signal sent to copier slaves
            B) Some network delay
            C) Slaves request buy at current Ask price
            D) Some delay
            E) Accepted by broker, trade placed at Ask price in step C

            The delays are normally very low (maybe 500m/s), and the price doesn't move that much.

            If the strategy opens / closes trades quickly you will bleed profits gradually.

            If it opens / closes trades at times of high volatility (large changes in price) you will lose money more quickly as the broker will be expanding the spread at this point - and you will get the worst price.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Westie View Post
              In my experience, the vast majority of the signals trade with unsafe money management of some description. They will do well for months, weeks, or even years and then have a huge loss (and likely blow the entire account up) in a very short space of time - weeks or months probably.

              A lot of times there are warning signs - huge open drawdown followed by a magical recovery (ie they were lucky this time).

              It's often not easy to see this happen. The MyFxBook and SimpleTrader charts don't make it obvious. For example, if you hold 10 positions, all offside for 75% of your account - this will not show in the charts history. If you close or open any trades at this point, the drawdown will get reported on the charts - and your chart will now look like crap, and you will have no investors.

              So what happens is, you sit on the open positions and hope for the best, maybe you get back to 10% drawdown or some such, at this point you can close those positions and all that gets shown on the chart is a pretty minor 10% drawdown - looks good for investors.

              Anyway, good luck.


              UNDERSTANDING PROBABILITY

              There are many advantages which traders simply ignore. They either dont know they are there or they know of their existence but dont think or understand that these are advantages which can give them an edge. In a sense trading successfully is nothing more than the conscious accumulation of advantages until the odds, probabilistically speaking, are weighted in your favour. Once one talks about probability, the issue of time is automatically introduced and this is a crucial insight which winners have. They understand that once they have swung the odds in their favour they must give them time to work. That is another reason why too short time frames are the wrong perspective for most traders.
              Think about this for a moment. A common attitude found amongst winning traders is how little they worry about what the market is going to do next. Thats right, they dont care. Why is that? Winning traders understand that anything can happen next. To think you know what will happen next is to fool yourself. But that is something entirely different from saying I have an idea, a view, on what the market will do in the longer run. If I couldnt say that with enough certainty to take positions confidently then trading would simply be gambling. There are people who believe this, that trading is a lottery, but I am not one of them. I believe that trading is more like gambling than most people would care to admit, but it is not gambling. Those traders who require certainty, or who say that they trade only when they are certain that this or that will happen do not understand what trading is about. You need to prepare yourself for any and every eventuality, but, smoothed out over a longer period of time, using all the advantages available to you, you will, based on the theory of probability make money. Whatever gives me an edge, I use.

              Ed Thorpe and the Kelly Criterion Investment Strategy solidified what I already had discovered on my own without even knowing what is was already called by some other successful traders. http://www.eecs.harvard.edu/cs286r/courses/fall12/papers/Thorpe_KellyCriterion2007.pdf
              Last edited by OutsideTheBoxHK; 11-19-2018, 01:16 AM.
              “Learn from your mistakes and do not give up!”

              Outside the Box - Myfxbook
              Outside the Box - SimpleTrader Trade Copying

              Comment


              • #8
                Like Westie said, I agree and have had the same experience.

                Myfxbook and Simple trader results can be manipulated. So hard to trust.

                The saying risk only money you are prepared to lose, is the best advice. As you will likely lose it on a signal.

                Good luck if you choose to follow a signal. Because you will need it.


                Comment


                • #9
                  OK, I'm surprised by this to be honest. OTB - have the people that subscribed to your signals made money as shown from the historical records or not?

                  Thanks,

                  Mark


                  Originally posted by OutsideTheBoxHK View Post


                  UNDERSTANDING PROBABILITY

                  There are many advantages which traders simply ignore. They either dont know they are there or they know of their existence but dont think or understand that these are advantages which can give them an edge. In a sense trading successfully is nothing more than the conscious accumulation of advantages until the odds, probabilistically speaking, are weighted in your favour. Once one talks about probability, the issue of time is automatically introduced and this is a crucial insight which winners have. They understand that once they have swung the odds in their favour they must give them time to work. That is another reason why too short time frames are the wrong perspective for most traders.
                  Think about this for a moment. A common attitude found amongst winning traders is how little they worry about what the market is going to do next. Thats right, they dont care. Why is that? Winning traders understand that anything can happen next. To think you know what will happen next is to fool yourself. But that is something entirely different from saying I have an idea, a view, on what the market will do in the longer run. If I couldnt say that with enough certainty to take positions confidently then trading would simply be gambling. There are people who believe this, that trading is a lottery, but I am not one of them. I believe that trading is more like gambling than most people would care to admit, but it is not gambling. Those traders who require certainty, or who say that they trade only when they are certain that this or that will happen do not understand what trading is about. You need to prepare yourself for any and every eventuality, but, smoothed out over a longer period of time, using all the advantages available to you, you will, based on the theory of probability make money. Whatever gives me an edge, I use.

                  Ed Thorpe and the Kelly Criterion Investment Strategy solidified what I already had discovered on my own without even knowing what is was already called by some other successful traders. http://www.eecs.harvard.edu/cs286r/courses/fall12/papers/Thorpe_KellyCriterion2007.pdf

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by mwaschkowski View Post
                    OK, I'm surprised by this to be honest. OTB - have the people that subscribed to your signals made money as shown from the historical records or not?

                    Thanks,

                    Mark
                    I agree with OTB’s concepts on statistics and probability, but it is very hard to find systems that have true long term advantage over the market that work in the long term. OTB’s system seems to be working well so far, but I am always cautious about systems that have equity curve that look smooth, because when the DDs hit they are usually very large.

                    The only systems that I trust and use now are SFE Price Action and SFE Night Scalper. What stands out with them is the number of trades that they take, because it would not be possible for them to have the gains they have unless they have a true edge over the market. I think you should look into them if you are serious about trading for the long term. The only downside is that you may spend months without gains, but in the long run you will always come out on top because of the long term statistical edge.
                    SFE Combo - MQL5 / SFE Combo - Signal Start / SFE Combo - Zulutrade / Official SFE Forum / SFE Combo - Myfxbook / SFE Combo - FX Blue Stats

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      How about this link for SFE Price Action MAM at Blueberry Markets.


                      https://www.myfxbook.com/members/atr...mam-bb/2206391

                      Seems to be struggling for the last 12 months. Bounces off the 20% DD alot.
                      Last edited by genki7; 11-20-2018, 03:22 AM.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by genki7 View Post
                        How about this link for SFE Price Action MAM at Blueberry Markets.


                        https://www.myfxbook.com/members/atr...mam-bb/2206391

                        Seems to be struggling for the last 12 months. Bounces off the 20% DD alot.
                        Somehow that account hasn't been updated since Nov 14, but there has been some gains this week on the official account: https://www.myfxbook.com/members/aut...action/1331484

                        It has been under-performing since July last year, but you need to look at the larger picture with this type of EA. It has't had a massive gain since June this year, so the next big gain should be due really soon, before the end of this year I believe.
                        SFE Combo - MQL5 / SFE Combo - Signal Start / SFE Combo - Zulutrade / Official SFE Forum / SFE Combo - Myfxbook / SFE Combo - FX Blue Stats

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by ccjhuang View Post

                          I agree with OTB's concepts on statistics and probability, but it is very hard to find systems that have true long term advantage over the market that work in the long term. OTB’s system seems to be working well so far, but I am always cautious about systems that have equity curve that look smooth, because when the DDs hit they are usually very large.

                          The only systems that I trust and use now are SFE Price Action and SFE Night Scalper. What stands out with them is the number of trades that they take, because it would not be possible for them to have the gains they have unless they have a true edge over the market. I think you should look into them if you are serious about trading for the long term. The only downside is that you may spend months without gains, but in the long run you will always come out on top because of the long term statistical edge.

                          As you can see and read here, there are many trade copiers / investors who have been abused, jaded, scammed, betrayed, and let down by signal providers, and thus there is a general Loss Averse or Optimism Hesitancy that is clouding this whole platform.
                          And thus people have generally given up hope and have mostly stopped attempting to overcome the challenges that have defeated other traders and/or their strategies.

                          THESE PROBLEMS ARE NOT UN-CRACK-ABLE. The issues that "killed" or severely damaged the track records of the previously mentioned strategies I can count on one hand.

                          And just like today, I am still looking for the next issue that might de-rail me, especially not cutting losers after they have passed the 120 Maximum Adverse Excursion that I have pin-pointed on my graph of 1000 trades as the point past which my losers normally do not return to Favorable Outcomes. The other issue that could damage my growth is having too much exposure in a currency pair that has significant risks, such as GBPUSD right now with Brexit. Or USDJPY once the stock markets collapse very soon. So I choose to spend 6 hours a day reading the reasons why others have failed and researching how to avoid them, and sometimes why they have given up so I can at least sympathize with them in some helpful way.

                          I have had 100's of trolls here doubting me since last May 2017.
                          Nick himself doubted me.
                          Other signal providers ridiculed me at the beginning.
                          They boasted of their lofty positions.
                          And now they are gone.
                          And the trolls and their criticism have been refuted. Because I continue to make good gains for my subscribers and fund clients and DARWIN investors.
                          I have 243 subscribers (only 1 or 2 have switched to managed fund due to divergence) and 19 fund clients (who get perfect execution in block trades with my account).

                          Here you can read the average slippage / divergence / latency that would cause investors' profits to differ from those profits I have generated:
                          https://www.mql5.com/en/signals/3054...b=tab_slippage ---- mostly between 0 and 3 pips

                          And here you can read the average pip gain per trade
                          https://www.myfxbook.com/members/Out...ccount/2087437 ---- 10.2 pips per winner
                          “Learn from your mistakes and do not give up!”

                          Outside the Box - Myfxbook
                          Outside the Box - SimpleTrader Trade Copying

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by OutsideTheBoxHK View Post

                            [COLOR=#800080]
                            I have had 100's of trolls here doubting me since last May 2017.
                            Do you consider everyone who has reservations about you or your system to be a "Troll"?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by nwboater View Post

                              Do you consider everyone who has reservations about you or your system to be a "Troll"?
                              It really doesn't matter. Nevertheless, those who are obviously not looking at all factors fairly but only over-emphasizing one or two factors or those who are not adept enough to truly assess the value of a trading performance track record.
                              “Learn from your mistakes and do not give up!”

                              Outside the Box - Myfxbook
                              Outside the Box - SimpleTrader Trade Copying

                              Comment

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