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  • Hey Vijay,

    Will be interesting to hear a response to Waleed's point regarding Yen pairs when you have the chance.

    In relation to max dd, and the vexed question of 20% or 25%, I guess everyone is rightly more alert to this than they were before DayFox, whose abuse of his own rules made the Smart Scalper episode look like a very minor transgression in comparison.

    The truth is that this system has altered a little since inception, as most systems do, particularly once a trader has a history and a reputation to protect. You did start off with 35% max dd as you made clear to Zoli, early on in this thread. Since then the worst case scenario has wavered between 20% and 25%. In a discussion with Louise on Page 11 of this thread you mentioned 20% as the maximum dd which is perhaps where BMM has his figure from.

    I know that historically we have been out to 17% but people do need to know (a) when you will cut and (b) that you will cut when we get there, particularly in the light of the 43% on Smart Scalper. I no longer have any doubt about the latter, but it would be very useful to have clarification on the former.

    For my own part, I'm planning as an experiment, to run Smart Trader at 2x risk on a small account where I can afford a big draw down. I'm assuming 25%, so a worst case for me of 50%, a risk I am happy to take, as the numbers involved are not large. However, if you came out and said 20% or 30% or whatever as an iron clad commitment in the Master, this would change my calculations significantly.

    I agree very much with those who are asking in general for more solid dd statements from all the traders on the site. I know it's probably not practicable but it will mollify everyone when the inevitable happens and money is lost.

    I am aware of the max dd feature in the Control Panel but I would much rather the closing of signals be at the discretion of a responsible trader like yourself.

    Comment


    • I have updated the MAX DD in the first post so that no more clarifications on this aspect is needed. On the Yen trades pair part, what are you guys really want to know? why so many trades? i dont mind taking such trades when i am confident as long as the DD is in the limits. There are unexpected moves sometimes that happen. But i was cutting the trades one after the other, as i was mindful of the exposure on Yen pairs. Thats managing trades, when there is favorable move, small or medium, i look to lessen the exposure thus lessening the risk. i have been missing profits as i am being more careful these days and i want to be little more aggressive. But ofcourse i have been saying 25% MAX DD for so long now. i know there are some old posts that may tell its 20%, i cant really go and update in each and every post, so i have updated the first post. To me reaching 20% itself will be rare, but i just want subs to have some breathing space so i am fixing it on 25%. Its not about this number and you all know how i have been trading for more than an year here now.

      I hope every one is clear about the DD now
      Last edited by SmartTrader; 12-14-2014, 03:33 PM.
      Trade the market, not the trader

      Comment


      • St this is because they are greedy and want to run your signal on 2x.My english is not fluent ,but i understand what is hidden preasure.So guys small risk and everything will be ok.

        Comment


        • Thanks Vijay for the clarification and elaborated post. I have faith you will be successful in the term ahead. Was there any major reason why you allowed SS (SmartScalper) to extend to 43% DD. Sorry I know it should be in the other post but if allowing another one of your system to bypass the DD then it can happen on ST just the same. What measures has been taken?

          Comment


          • I have a clear explanation of why that happened, please read the posts during that period. its not possible to re-explain it here at this moment.
            Trade the market, not the trader

            Comment


            • Originally posted by SmartTrader View Post
              I have updated the MAX DD in the first post so that no more clarifications on this aspect is needed. On the Yen trades pair part, what are you guys really want to know? why so many trades? i dont mind taking such trades when i am confident as long as the DD is in the limits. There are unexpected moves sometimes that happen. But i was cutting the trades one after the other, as i was mindful of the exposure on Yen pairs. Thats managing trades, when there is favorable move, small or medium, i look to lessen the exposure thus lessening the risk. i have been missing profits as i am being more careful these days and i want to be little more aggressive. But ofcourse i have been saying 25% MAX DD for so long now. i know there are some old posts that may tell its 20%, i cant really go and update in each and every post, so i have updated the first post. To me reaching 20% itself will be rare, but i just want subs to have some breathing space so i am fixing it on 25%. Its not about this number and you all know how i have been trading for more than an year here now.

              I hope every one is clear about the DD now
              Thank you for the clarification, it's crystal-clear now.

              Great work as usual, we all support you and your effective strategy!

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Fxtsunami View Post
                St this is because they are greedy and want to run your signal on 2x.My english is not fluent ,but i understand what is hidden preasure.So guys small risk and everything will be ok.
                C'mon Erik - Think about it. What difference is it to have say 50k available risk and to trade ST at 1x risk or to put 25k in the bank and trade ST at 2x risk on the remaining 25k. It has nothing to do with greed. There is no pressure at all on VJ - we just asked for clarification and he has given it.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by SmartTrader View Post
                  I have a clear explanation of why that happened, please read the posts during that period. its not possible to re-explain it here at this moment.
                  Completely understandable. Thanks.

                  Comment


                  • If my calculations are correct the max. cumulative drawdown of NZDJPY and USDJPY at news time has been -13.8%.

                    Katja

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by BMM View Post
                      thanks for fast answering!



                      thanks to you too, I agree , I don't understand why this info are not highly visible in the signal presentation in bold and big typing

                      This is not a critic to Vijay, of course, but a suggestion to Nick's team, I am speaking in a more general way for all the signal providers. To have to look in forum to find this info having always the risk to not have the latest release of the info is absurd
                      The reason we don't have this information prominently displayed is because it could potentially make us liable for something we only have limited control over. This has been a hotly debated topic lately for obvious reasons and our remedy is to conduct better due diligence on traders to help us identify red flags before they happen.

                      Unfortunately we will always be at the mercy of traders self regulation. We can't force them to close their trades and we will never close trades automatically on behalf of clients.

                      The last basket from Vijay was certainly uncomfortable, however I do believe that he was ready to cut if drawdown hit 25%. He knows first hand how hanging on can effect his reputation. I don't think it's a mistake he'll make ever again.
                      Click here to check out the most popular forex channel on YouTube

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by SmartTrader View Post
                        Yes gmnotes. I used to take more risk n I also used to trade 4 pairs at a time n I used to wait for profits when there was DD n not cut at break even. Now I trade mostly 2 pairs at a time rarely 3 n when I am in 3 trades are more, I am cutting one or two early n take profits only on the third. This reduced the risk n the profits as well. But it's safer n consistent now
                        Dear Vijay:
                        I do have several considerations to last trades:

                        1- at the time I had a loss of 43% with SS, I decided to reduce the risk including ST to my portfolio. It was a surprise to me that you opened 2 trades with different pairs on ST but linked to same pair (JPY) and you also opened another trade on SS with a pair linked to JPY. At the time things went wrong with JPY, the DD was all in the same direction with ST and SS and instead to dilute risk with combination of these EA and increase the risk.

                        2- I realized that ST is not a one trade risk managed trade (you know with stop loss and take profit defined in advance), but you started creating a grid with and not known result which can result in a 25% loss. Trading system is about the same that SS.

                        3- At the time you opened 2 or more pairs linked to the same currency (in this case JPY), if things go wrong we are adding DD in the pairs. If the account reach the 25% DD, as per your explanation and setting, we are supposed to account loss in the account- even though the individual DD per pair can be much lower (i.e. let say 12 and 13%). It means that the possibility to handle 25% DD with one pair which can give us a higher opportunity to overcome the DD and finish in green is reduced and we will have to account loss in a lower DD per pair.

                        4- You mention on ST setting that Elliot Wave is used as part of the trading system. I checked the trades you opened with JPY and those were opened on the retracement wave and not in the impulse stage which give us more risk to the trade.

                        Comment


                        • Gmontes, I think you should not bring SS into the equation as it has no bearing on ST. ST is it's own signal and should be judged on it's own merits.

                          Comment


                          • What you guys really want?This is forex and be prepaird for big dd.No need to teach Vijay how many possitions to open,just fix low risk.Crazy............I hope that Vijay will not change anything.


                            Vijay should close possitions whan he thinks that there is no chance to recover,if he see a chance at 25%dd to recover no need to close and leave the trader to trade.
                            Last edited by Fxtsunami; 12-15-2014, 07:28 AM.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by gmontes View Post
                              Dear Vijay:
                              I do have several considerations to last trades:

                              1- at the time I had a loss of 43% with SS, I decided to reduce the risk including ST to my portfolio. It was a surprise to me that you opened 2 trades with different pairs on ST but linked to same pair (JPY) and you also opened another trade on SS with a pair linked to JPY. At the time things went wrong with JPY, the DD was all in the same direction with ST and SS and instead to dilute risk with combination of these EA and increase the risk.

                              2- I realized that ST is not a one trade risk managed trade (you know with stop loss and take profit defined in advance), but you started creating a grid with and not known result which can result in a 25% loss. Trading system is about the same that SS.

                              3- At the time you opened 2 or more pairs linked to the same currency (in this case JPY), if things go wrong we are adding DD in the pairs. If the account reach the 25% DD, as per your explanation and setting, we are supposed to account loss in the account- even though the individual DD per pair can be much lower (i.e. let say 12 and 13%). It means that the possibility to handle 25% DD with one pair which can give us a higher opportunity to overcome the DD and finish in green is reduced and we will have to account loss in a lower DD per pair.

                              4- You mention on ST setting that Elliot Wave is used as part of the trading system. I checked the trades you opened with JPY and those were opened on the retracement wave and not in the impulse stage which give us more risk to the trade.
                              Hi gmontes,
                              You should have known all these details already. That is how i trade and it seems to me that you are surprised to see. Please read the forum and see the history of trades, then only you will understand how i am trading. its difficult to explain to each and everyon e the same details again and again.

                              Regarding one currency in all the basket. i feel why not, when the whole world was selling JPY, why shouldnt we? and thats where our probability of our success will be more, thats the trend. Right? why should we trade some other currency whose trend is not so well defined at that particular time. if you see now AUD is going down now and we should sell AUD. Thats a clear trend and i follow the same. if it goes against me, i apply my skill and i still fail, i take losses.
                              Last edited by SmartTrader; 12-15-2014, 09:48 AM.
                              Trade the market, not the trader

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Big River Man View Post
                                Gmontes, I think you should not bring SS into the equation as it has no bearing on ST. ST is it's own signal and should be judged on it's own merits.
                                Hi River Man:
                                in some point a few months ago before the SS crash, Nick and Vijay were thinking to have an investment service with a combination of ST and SS. It was placed in hold, that is why.

                                Comment

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