Sounds good. Thank you.
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Oportunis signal
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We ended up with 9.73% of profit in September. Total profit this year so far is at 67.61%. As suggested I have opened a fresh slave account, so we can compare the results for future followers. Here is the myfxbook link: https://www.myfxbook.com/members/oportunis/oportunis-follower/3556919Oportunis_September.png
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Originally posted by oportunis View PostWe ended up with 9.73% of profit in September. Total profit this year so far is at 67.61%. As suggested I have opened a fresh slave account, so we can compare the results for future followers. Here is the myfxbook link: https://www.myfxbook.com/members/oportunis/oportunis-follower/3556919Oportunis_September.png
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Today trades weren't copied on slave account, because I forgot to check the box allow live trading. I thought I did, but it seems I didn't. Sorry for the stats delay, but hopefully from now on we will get a clear picture of how the follower's account will perform.
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Originally posted by oportunis View PostSome slippage was for entry, SL was copied OK. I leave trailing SL some breathing so it doesn't get hit instantly. But only time will tell, it's too soon to conclude anything.
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Tickmill is different it seems, it opened trades while ICM didn't. The reason might be that prices are different. On Tickmill the price retraced a little higher so the sell trades opened while on ICM not.
So far I see positive slippage on follower account, but we got into a losing streak so we need to ride it out and wait for profitable trades to compare.
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October was a bloodbath for the system with a lot of fakeouts that triggered our SL. We had -26.83% loss which put us back to 22.65% of profit for this year. We need to take the losses and stick with the system. In the long term, we should end up profitable.
The simpletrader follower account seems to have better results with positive slippage, however it did miss some of the profitable trades, so I put the slippage settings from 3 to 30.
october19.png
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It isn't THAT bad, as the risk on this account is really high. With the suggested risk setup, which in my opinion is still quite high, its just 25%, which i think is okay.
What i see as a problem is that it took only 2 month to lose 6 month of profits. And from my experience, on a breakout system the average win to loss should be at least 1:1, but here the average loss is two times higher than the average win. But then again, i could hardly ever stay breakeven with all breakout systems i tested longterm... xD
Originally posted by oportunis View PostRisk management:
I suggest using 0.01 lot per $200 for 5% risk per trade setup
This account uses 0.01 lot per $100 for 10% risk per trade setup
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Originally posted by Amadorian View PostIt isn't THAT bad, as the risk on this account is really high. With the suggested risk setup, which in my opinion is still quite high, its just 25%, which i think is okay.
What i see as a problem is that it took only 2 month to lose 6 month of profits. And from my experience, on a breakout system the average win to loss should be at least 1:1, but here the average loss is two times higher than the average win. But then again, i could hardly ever stay breakeven with all breakout systems i tested longterm... xD
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I'll run some backtests for 1:1 RR and to check how it performed against my real account. If we had perfect trading conditions I would have been profitable all months, because a few SL were hit due to high spread and those loses with over 24 pips were due to price jump, the tick just opened above SL and trades closed at a much greater loss. I thought that 40-60 pips spread on gold is too much, but it happens more than I prefer. Luckily this month I got a refund because the ICMarkets had some liquidity problems and the 3 trades that were instantly closed were their fault. I would say that I counted at least 16 trades that were not the fault of my system, but it is what it is. Brokers push those losses on us traders. I could stop trading news events, but then again I would miss on profitable trades too. During that time most breakouts happen.
Also please take notice that the risk on the account is 10% per trade setup, so if I would use 0.01 lot per 1k this would be only 1%, which is OK for the big balance accounts. In backtests, I saw DD period of about 6 months and it ended in equity high, so let me check how it goes with 1:1 and if it's good I'll implement some changes.
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Here are the backtests for 2019. As mentioned before, perfect trading conditions don't exist otherwise I would have been profitable all months. I used 1% risk so you can see that both past months were profitable, while we have a loss, mainly due to spread and brokers not caring about it...
goldbcktest_currentsettings.png
I tested also with trailing stop loss activated at 24 pips, so we would have 1:1 RR, but the results are worse than my current settings.
goldbcktest3.png
What I can do is to test with 0.01 lot in real account to compare if it would be better, because perfect trading conditions don't exist and we might have a better profit if we use 1:1 RR. I saw a few breakouts that were over 100 pips, but most did retrace back after 20 pips, so I will implement a break-even if we go over 10 pips just in case.
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