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  • Safe- Trade Basics

    Hi all,

    I am Neeraj and provide trading signals under name Safe. I am based out of India and have been trading since 2008 (Forex from 2011). Purpose of this thread is to let my subscribers know the basics of my trades and reason why I took them. I am sure exchanging views around here will help all of us in improving our trade perspective. I will begin with some basic info about my trading style, money management and then will go on to some recent trades, beyond which I will try to post daily with basis of my trades-


    Myfxbook link- http://www.myfxbook.com/portfolio/safe/812751

    Simpletrader link- https://www.simpletrader.net/signal/1580/signal.html

    Money Management- At the end of the day it's the most important thing in trading, yes even important than strategy. You can't cheat maths in this game and sooner or later it will catch up on you if you are not following it properly.
    There are fund transfer restrictions for forex trading from India and you can only use indirect fund transfer mode, not the primary but one of the reason I started with a $700 account- But make no mistake I treat my account as a Million $ one and follow my money management judiciously.

    For majority of my trades risk is less than 1% and I am maintaining account DD below 5% (Win rate is around 70%). But this does not make me a conservative and very low return trader as I aim for 8-10% return per month. Yes there could be some months with higher/lower return but you all know there is nothing certain in Forex just one- If you know how to survive you will make money in long term. That's what I try to emulate in my trading.

    I follow risk per trade between 0.5% to 3%, primarily based on trade and mental set up. Market situations are changing as market makers devise new ways to fool retail traders. It's obvious that once we loose we try to recover that ASAP and in turn loose more- what is required is slight adjustment in your trading style, my way is to risk less until you start winning again and then get back to your normal risk mode. This gives me time to adjust and regain confidence.

    I trade price action with Pin bar and Inside bar being my favourite. I trade all the major/minor pairs, both intra-day and inter-day. Majority of my intra-day trades comes with a tight SL with at times positions closed before SL. Risk to reward is greater than 1:1 where I close partial position at 1.5 reward and moving the SL to BE. Inter-day trades are adjusted as per market conditions- but lot sizes are quiet low not giving me or the subscriber sleepless nights .

    No Martingale, No Hedging, No Grid, No Averaging. If market has proved me wrong I don't wait endlessly for price to return back. Yes you might find price retracing back after i have closed the trade in loss- but my concern here is "What if it does not?" You are 10-20% down on a single trade and have lost all your composure. If you are not targeting 10-20% per trade you are not following proper MM by letting positions run in loss to the tune of 10-20%.

    I am sorry for such a long starting post but will make sure future posts are crisp and to the point . Will continue to post my trades and logic behind them.
    Please feel free to revert back with your queries/suggestions.

    Tc,
    Neeraj
    Last edited by madaneeraj; 02-15-2014, 01:21 PM.

  • #2
    Another one from India, Welcome Madan and Good luck
    Trade the market, not the trader

    Comment


    • #3
      Hi, I will like to ask a few more qns here:

      what is your max dd (floating plus real)? What are your actions if you reach your max dd?

      Thanks
      Last edited by thekhoos; 02-15-2014, 01:37 PM.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by thekhoos View Post
        Hi, I will like to ask a few more qns here:

        what is your max dd (floating plus real)? What are your actions if you reach your max dd?

        Thanks
        Hi- Max DD by equity: 4.75%. I seldom open trades without a SL. No way any trade loss will exceed 3%. If market goes other way I politely accepts loss rather than waiting for market to turn around. I know this market turns around 9 out of 10 times, but that 1 loss would be bigger than 9 small loses.

        No one can predict market behavior 100% of times, so its better one accept lose and move ahead.

        Thanks,

        Comment


        • #5
          Pinbar.png

          As discussed, commentary on NZDUSD trade. This pair reacts best to Pin Bars as you can see by checking the historical reactions in D1 NZDUSD chart. I would have opened a larger position if the pin bar would have been closer to the blue line. As US Dollar is taking an all round beating there is more of fundamental playing than mere technical. I am looking to hold it till 0.8425 for a target of around .8100. Might plan to exit before in case price keeps on climbing.

          Stay tuned!
          Attached Files

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by thekhoos View Post
            Hi, I will like to ask a few more qns here:

            what is your max dd (floating plus real)? What are your actions if you reach your max dd?

            Thanks
            Originally posted by madaneeraj View Post
            Hi- Max DD by equity: 4.75%. I seldom open trades without a SL. No way any trade loss will exceed 3%. If market goes other way I politely accepts loss rather than waiting for market to turn around. I know this market turns around 9 out of 10 times, but that 1 loss would be bigger than 9 small loses.

            No one can predict market behavior 100% of times, so its better one accept lose and move ahead.

            Thanks,
            Originally posted by madaneeraj View Post
            [ATTACH=CONFIG]442[/ATTACH]

            As discussed, commentary on NZDUSD trade. This pair reacts best to Pin Bars as you can see by checking the historical reactions in D1 NZDUSD chart. I would have opened a larger position if the pin bar would have been closer to the blue line. As US Dollar is taking an all round beating there is more of fundamental playing than mere technical. I am looking to hold it till 0.8425 for a target of around .8100. Might plan to exit before in case price keeps on climbing.

            Stay tuned!
            @Madan, when he asked about the max DD, he is not talking about what is there in your account at present, he meant whats the max DD that you gonna take in future. At which point you feel you are wrong and you exit the trades in loss. 5% or 10% or x%.
            Trade the market, not the trader

            Comment


            • #7
              Hi Smartrader- I am sorry if I was not explicit in my earlier post but I do mentioned, Max DD per trade is 3% and that too I take once I am sure of a turnaround. At any given point of time there could be max 2-3 trades open so when I am at highest water mark it could be maximum 6-9% for 2-3 trades.

              I am a very conservative trader if I am in red and risk % would hover around 1% per trade most of the time. This gives me time to analyze pair and strategy. Once I am back to my usual confident state I might risk 2-3% again. So for a 10% DD, It would be approximately 8-10 loosing trades in a row.

              I reiterate, I take my capital very seriously and happy to sit on it until I find a suitable trading opportunity. MyFxBook stat gives me a less than 0.6% chance for a 10% DD and there is no point I shouldn't believe them.

              Note-Max DD by equity is 4.75% (for open positions) and Max DD by Capital is 4.83% (for closed position)

              Comment


              • #8
                did you change your strategy? why at the actually cfhjpy trade, the sl is much wider than usual?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by heinzthebird View Post
                  did you change your strategy? why at the actually cfhjpy trade, the sl is much wider than usual?

                  I trade both long and short term. Long term always with the trend direction and CHFJPY is in uptrend. It was a good entry at the support but yes I missed the news. If I would have noted probably I would have entered at 114.32 (pin bar formation).

                  Also, if you look at past historical charts you will notice that news seldom change direction of trend (only exception is NFP which rarely do this). Yes there is spike during new events but price more often then not returns to original position & continues in trend direction, that's how long and medium term traders survive.

                  In addition- This trade was under 2% risk limit. I kept the SL away from the spike but within risk tolerance limit.

                  Hope I was able to answer your question, do get back in case you seek any further clarification.

                  By the way I have closed half position as round number resistance is holding (115.00).

                  Thanks,

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Also, I much prefer you closing out a trade and opening another half the size. Makes it so much easier to analyze my trading because it keeps the comments!!

                    Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Hi all,

                      Today my VPS rebooted several times and I couldn't keep track of it. I apologize for inconvenience caused. I will switch the VPS soon and will update.

                      Thanks,

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Hi, the trading has been quite bad today? Is this still the same strategy????

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          In fact this signal has actually lost money since mid January.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Big River Man View Post
                            Hi, the trading has been quite bad today? Is this still the same strategy????
                            Hi Big- Market has not been that favorable for PA traders (unless you are willing to hold the position). I don't think many of PA traders on this forum did too well this month There were sudden spikes and then retraces not giving ample opportunity to get in . Feb is still in green though but not by much, anyhow hope to get back in March.

                            Thanks,

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              it seems this provider needs some more time to optimize his skills.. best will be to wait 6 month more to have a clearer view.

                              wish you good luck for the future

                              Comment

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