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  • siamfx
    replied
    Originally posted by arkoon View Post
    Like you I would prefer a trader that open 1 trade at the time, fixed lotsize, clear TP/SL... but seems there are not much that can earn money this way.
    once you are entering 1 trade at a time, it comes down to risk per trade and your accuracy. You can have bad accuracy but use a tp 3x your sl and be profitable over the long run, that trading history will be very choppy and many people avoid them. On the other hand you can have an accurate strategy with 60% hit rate but use a 1:1 rr and make money but that system will also have a choppy history that many ppl still avoid. Then you are left with the systems with good accuracy 70%+ but use a terrible RR ratio that leaves you hanging for a very long time like fxamp. It's difficult to please to say the least.

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  • siamfx
    replied
    You two are both right, even Yen fortress opens several positions both Long and Short and includes averaging or aka grid if you prefer to hear that term. I'm not sure if viper clarified a change in his strategy recently, but from seeing him trade(live trade room) he has lowered his risk about 3x and can enter several positions in a grid. why do so? I've been doing the same for years and I do it for 1 reason only. I know that I can't be 100% accurate, and I don't want to solely wait for the TP or SL to hit, so by averaging, the trader can continue trading and let the volatility play out to offer more trades. In these strategies, there needs to be oversight. Unfortunately, caesar does not and you are stuck with a really poor risk vs reward that is frankly hidden until you hit a stopout, then its apparent.

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  • arkoon
    replied
    Viper is also a grid, but cleverly managed. Dayfox (so far) was also a grid/marti, cleverly managed..
    So, if you exclude all grids/averagers/martingal, not much left.
    Like you I would prefer a trader that open 1 trade at the time, fixed lotsize, clear TP/SL... but seems there are not much that can earn money this way.
    I also like trend followers that SL 20, 30, 100 but TP 100, 200, 500...

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  • LuisG
    replied
    Why they can not understand once all grid (or martingale) always destroy the system account?

    Simply make a BT one of the thousands of EAs in this type existing in the network: all abosultamente all break the count. Even if you have 1 million dollars and come with 0.01 lots, just destroy the account

    They can be profitable for several months even years, but I always end up breaking accounts. The only one who wins is the signal provider, knowing this misleads subscribers. Caesar (in any version), dayfox, golden fx, smart scalper, scientific Gridder, and etc, are some of the many systems of this type that have destroyed all accounts and had steep curves. All grids do lose money.

    Look for providers that do not use these dangerous techniques.

    PS: should add a flag to tell whether the system is grid or martingale, and open a thread to discuss the signals that are not grid or martingale as
    Fortnes Yen (apparently high correlation), ASTA, Ambush trader, trader alerter, Myea Azil (one operation per pair at a time), fx Vipper (although it goes by a few pips)

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  • siamfx
    replied
    Originally posted by kmf View Post
    Fantastic week with Caesar2 this week

    +13.91%

    All the money lost in October has been earned back and more
    Caesar $100k.EUR-USD.Thu, 06 Nov 2014 13-10-00 GMT-Sat, 08 Nov 2014 00-40-00 GMT.pngCaesar2IcMA.EUR-USD.Thu, 06 Nov 2014 16-15-00 GMT-Sat, 08 Nov 2014 00-40-00 GMT.pngCaesar2MarkM.EUR-USD.Thu, 06 Nov 2014 14-05-00 GMT-Sat, 08 Nov 2014 00-40-00 GMT.pngCaesar2VincenzoS.EUR-USD.Thu, 06 Nov 2014 16-45-00 GMT-Sat, 08 Nov 2014 00-40-00 GMT.png

    Many of the accounts varied in performance from + to -. I looked at the actual trades taken from myfxbook, (see attached images) and the baskets were closed at different times, Most were lucky to exit out of the basket on the initial NFP spike, 1 account's execution must of have been very slow exiting these 30 positions and closed for a 8% loss because the NFP spike retraced instantly after the initial pop, other accounts held on to the basket for longer term and exited once EURUSD started to rebound after the nfp spike. From this analysis, the actual Caesar EA is running directly on customers accounts which results in this variation. I couldn't image anyone scoring big from following through ST trade copier, but please prove me wrong if you managed to close all your positions on the NFP spike.

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  • kmf
    replied
    Originally posted by arkoon View Post
    Yes, but you are brave... I would PANIC having more than 30 open trades before NFP... but well done...!
    Thanks arkoon...I agree it would have been preferable not to have that many open trades heading into NFP

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  • arkoon
    replied
    Yes, but you are brave... I would PANIC having more than 30 open trades before NFP... but well done...!

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  • kmf
    replied
    Fantastic week with Caesar2 this week

    +13.91%

    All the money lost in October has been earned back and more

    Leave a comment:


  • FxPhil
    replied
    Originally posted by rourkem View Post
    I'm still trying some experiments on the percentage but has someone come up with a figure yet?
    Risk/Reward ratio has not altered. Tomas has bought his EA the ability to open 2x the trades in the past before it closes at 33% loss. Remember we saw 2 33% closes almost back to back, so the market can and will move in ways to trigger the 33% loss. While neither of the 2 33% loss events by themselves would have caused a loss at the new settings, together those 2 back to back events would have caused a 33% loss event at the current 0.01 / $1,000. It can and will happen again.

    When the Caesar400% account was up, was clear there were other events where Tomas did close out the basket BEFORE it hit a 33% event. Just looking back for 33% events will not tell the real event occurrence rate of 33% events as the early close downs may have hidden some others.

    Based on the above, I have serious doubts about the long term survivability of this grid trader, which I see as just gambling the long term gain rate is above the 33% loss rate with no data to show the gain rate is higher.

    Not for me. Bye.

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  • rourkem
    replied
    I'm still trying some experiments on the percentage but has someone come up with a figure yet?

    Leave a comment:


  • RedRhinoFX
    replied
    Originally posted by RedRhinoFX View Post
    risk vs reward on caesar is 0.3% gain with 33% stopout. per basket . Sometimes the basket can reopen after the small gain for another chance at another basket. Some days, 1% gain but still the same risk of 33% stopout. - http://www.myfxbook.com/members/togr/caesar2icma/737724
    I suggest a Breakeven when a drawdown percentage is reached instead of waiting for a stopout. What % would be suitable do you think when running caesar on your cash?

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  • RedRhinoFX
    replied
    risk vs reward on caesar is 0.3% gain with 33% stopout. per basket . Sometimes the basket can reopen after the small gain for another chance at another basket. Some days, 1% gain but still the same risk of 33% stopout. - http://www.myfxbook.com/members/togr/caesar2icma/737724

    Leave a comment:


  • ESG
    replied
    Hello everybody,

    as Tomas nowadays states
    -------
    There is a protection that closes trades at loss of $333 on master account. Lot size is fixed to 0.01 on master account. Thus if you trade 0.01 lot on your account the risk is limited to $333. If you trade 0.02 lot then it is limited to $666, etc...
    -------
    on the signal information page.

    I do have doubts how this would change risk/reward ratio of the signal within our scenario of copying the trades based on our individual settings for ST copier.

    Maybe I'm wrong, but if we've followed the signal on 1x risk multiplier we would have been at risk loosing approx. 33% (that's what happend to me) of our account in the past, if market conditions and entry level assumptions shift against our expectations.

    As Caesar2 has traded a lot size of 0.02 at a balance of approx. $1000 in the past, and assumed that we would like to have a compareable reveniew out of the upcoming trades in the future, we would have to set our risk multiplier to 2x.
    As one direct effect of this change this means that, if we see a major drawdown of equity in the future, Ceasar2 would close its positions when reaching 33% drawdown.
    Consequently meaning that the follower on a dynamic risk level by 2x would give away 66% of his account.

    To be clear:
    This kind of setup would have saved our situation on the 3rd of Oct. as the lot size would have been of 0,01 per trade and the equity in the master account would not have reached this 33% drawdown.

    So what's your opinion about rsik/reward and strategy for Caesar2?
    ESG

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  • RedRhinoFX
    replied
    Originally posted by FxPhil View Post

    After much analysis of how and why Tomas opens the 1st trade, there is no strong correlation with any Indicator. There is a weak correlation with Stoch over bought/sold and signal/main crossover. Trades are opened, 99% of the time, a few seconds after a new M1 candle has formed, which includes the 1st trade. This shows there is a EA doing the trades, running on the M1 time frame and that it waits for a new M1 candle to form before opening a new trade. You can only see this my looking at the MT4 history and not MFB history as MFB doesn't show seconds.
    The initial logic that fires the trade #1 is very important because if this one trade opens at the wrong time or direction, we wait for a max stopout or at best a pullback to close the basket at a loss.

    From my backtests of my own version, I see that hedging can work but works better trading buy only until the basket closes, then look for a new signal whether buy or sell just like Caesars design.

    https://charts.mql5.com/5/976/eurusd...hinofx-com.png

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  • RedRhinoFX
    replied
    Originally posted by FxPhil View Post
    My opinion is Tomas may use some Indies as guidance but opens the initial trade manually (switching on the EA??) and then generally allows it to form the grid trades. That said, there are ample examples of the grid formation process being halted for some time. This analysis suggests Tomas doesn't have a sellable EA and inputs a lot of his time to provide overall guidance and control of the trading. I may be wrong in this analysis but my experience says it is not all the result of a magic EA.

    What do you mean by the Grid formation process is halted? Do you mean a Filter is preventing continuous Grid trading, or are you saying the actual grid stops trading because once the initial trade is opened (1st) the system grids until A. profit reached B. Small Loss C. Max Stoploss. Please share what you mean.

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